Developed and developing world responsibilities for historical climate change and CO2 mitigation

At the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference in Cancun, in November 2010, the Heads of State reached an agreement on the aim of limiting the global temperature rise to 2 °C relative to preindustrial levels. They recognized that long-term future warming is primarily constrained by cumulative anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, that deep cuts in global emissions are required, and that action based on equity must be taken to meet this objective. However, negotiations on emission reduction among countries are increasingly fraught with difficulty, partly because of arguments about the responsibility for the ongoing temperature rise. Simulations with two earth-system models (NCAR/CESM and BNU-ESM) demonstrate that developed countries had contributed about 60–80%, developing countries about 20–40%, to the global temperature rise, upper ocean warming, and sea-ice reduction by 2005. Enacting pledges made at Cancun with continuation to 2100 leads to a reduction in global temperature rise relative to business as usual with a 1/3–2/3 (CESM 33–67%, BNU-ESM 35–65%) contribution from developed and developing countries, respectively. To prevent a temperature rise by 2 °C or more in 2100, it is necessary to fill the gap with more ambitious mitigation efforts.     

Secure human attachment can promote support for climate change mitigation

Attachment theory is an ethological approach to the development of durable, affective ties between humans. We propose that secure attachment is crucial for understanding climate change mitigation, because the latter is inherently a communal phenomenon resulting from joint action and requiring collective behavioral change. Here, we show that priming attachment security increases acceptance (Study 1: n = 173) and perceived responsibility toward anthropogenic climate change (Study 2: n = 209) via increased empathy for others. Next, we demonstrate that priming attachment security, compared to a standard National Geographic video about climate change, increases monetary donations to a proenvironmental group in politically moderate and conservative individuals (Study 3: n = 196). Finally, through a preregistered field study conducted in the United Arab Emirates (Study 4: n = 143,558 food transactions), we show that, compared to a message related to carbon emissions, an attachment security–based message is associated with a reduction in food waste. Taken together, our work suggests that an avenue to promote climate change mitigation could be grounded in core ethological mechanisms associated with secure attachment.

The negative effects of climate change are looming, demanding forceful and immediate action from multiple stakeholders, including households and individuals. Despite the pressing need for climate change mitigation, many people still deny the reality or seriousness of climate change (1). Furthermore, even when people do acknowledge climate change, they often do not change their behavior in substantive ways to reduce carbon emissions (2). Several reasons have been proposed to explain the limited household action to mitigate climate change (3), and among alternative accounts, the hypothesis of motivated reasoning is gaining momentum. The motivated reasoning hypothesis proposes that limited action on climate change may function to safeguard core identity motives, ideologies, and worldviews, including perceived conflicts between mitigating climate change and maintaining economic prosperity (4). This perspective is increasingly prominent in the literature, particularly with research suggesting that individuals construe scientific evidence about climate change in ways that are self-serving (5). Therefore, given that attitudes and action about climate change are, at least partially, influenced by motivational processes, the question remains of how to motivate individuals toward more proenvironmental pathways.We propose that climate change mitigation may be promoted when psychological structures related to human interconnection are developed and active. This is based on the premise that the willingness to mitigate climate change involves accepting human (co)accountability, caring for others (present and future generations), and a readiness to act (together) as a mitigation response.Here, we specifically examine the role of attachment orientation in the willingness to mitigate climate change, in line with increasing calls to invest in demand side solutions to address global warming (6). We focus on attachment because it relates to the primal form of emotional bonding between humans (7). From an evolutionary perspective, attachment is conceptualized as an innate behavioral system aimed at safeguarding against potential threats by assuring proximity to caring and supportive others (8). The motivation to seek proximity to protective others is functionally different from more general affiliation needs (9); it aims to establish a secure base, which is defined as a sense that protective others are available and responsive in case of threat. This concept of protection from threat is pertinent to climate change because global warming poses an existential threat to humankind, which is within the realm of stimuli that could be expected to activate the attachment system.Researchers have identified two primary attachment orientations^* (10–12): a secure attachment orientation, which is used to describe people who have experienced a sense of safe haven, protection, and comfort from close others in times of distress, and an insecure attachment orientation, which is associated with experiences of being rejected or ignored by close others in times of need or threat (13).This distinction between attachment orientations is significant because the attachment system is linked to other behavioral systems (14), namely the caregiving system. The caregiving system is thought to have evolved to provide protection and support to others, and is inherently altruistic in nature (15). These behavioral systems are linked in a way that, when people feel comforted and safe in threatening situations (securely attached), the activation of caregiving is facilitated, enabling them to focus on the distress of others (16). By comparison, insecurely attached individuals tend to remain focused on their own distress and are less likely to engage in altruistic behaviors. Only when relief from threat is achieved, and a sense of safety restored, can individuals shift resources to other behavioral systems such as caregiving (17). Thus, attachment security does not activate the caregiving system directly but rather offers a solid psychological foundation for altruism (18). Previous research has shown the positive impact of secure attachment in multiple instances of caregiving, including volunteering and helping behavior (18, 19). Essentially, secure attachment, as a basic psychological need related to safety and protection, anchors the progression toward higher-level psychological processes (19) and offers a strong, theoretical foundation to understand prosocial behavior. In prior research, mitigating climate change has been defined as a form of prosocial behavior, which places individual self-interest behind the collective welfare (20).The interplay between the attachment and caregiving systems has several important implications for research about climate change. First, attachment theory sheds a different light on prosocial behavior, examined through an evolutionary perspective. Research based on evolutionary frameworks suggests that prosocial behavior occurs primarily to protect reputation and build reciprocity as a means to guarantee return benefits, particularly from in-group members (21, 22). However, the distinctiveness of the attachment system lies in the ethology of the bonding process, which goes beyond the notion of transactional social ties. Seminal evidence from humans and nonhuman primates (23, 24) has shown that the attachment system is not rooted in reward reinforcement from the caregiver (such as food) but rather is motivated by a need for protective bonding. Secure attachment has been linked to volunteering and helping behavior (which are features of the caregiving system) beyond the boundaries of close in-group members—for example, toward strangers and unrelated individuals (14–18).Second, secure attachment may be the psychological infrastructure on which several factors previously associated with caring for the environment are built. There is evidence showing the role of altruistic social orientation, empathy, and universality values in proenvironmental behaviors (25–27). This previous research, however, leaves unaddressed what promotes these factors. We propose that attachment security is a crucial, latent foundation because of its facilitating role in the activation of the caregiving system, which offers a broader conceptual perspective to previous findings.Third, the literature on adult attachment theory provides a validated, experimental apparatus for the design of interventions (18) to increase the manifestation of prosocial behavior. A core assumption in attachment theory is that attachment orientations are relatively stable over time (12) but prone to temporary variations (e.g., such as a parent’s death, a job loss, or a new intimate relationship) and transient fluctuations, including experimental manipulations (14). There is consistent causal evidence showing the effect of priming attachment security in increasing levels of empathy, trust, and helping behavior (11, 15, 18). Therefore, such validated, experimental manipulations also allow one to experimentally test the effect of attachment security on beliefs and action toward anthropogenic climate change.Finally, attachment theory is not culturally bound, unlike other perspectives on climate change (28). A central feature of attachment theory is the universality of its premise (7), with minor cultural variations (29). Fundamentally, attachment security is a psychological feature that can be nurtured in all humans. Given its link to a generalized concern for others’ welfare (14), attachment security could help the conservation of global public goods (20) that require protective action based on common concerns that affect all of humankind—of which climate change is a paradigmatic example.     

Global archaeological evidence for proboscidean overkill

One million years ago, proboscideans occupied most of Africa, Europe, Asia, and the Americas. Today, wild elephants are only found in portions of sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Although the causes of global Pleistocene extinctions in the order Proboscidea remain unresolved, the most common explanations involve climatic change and/or human hunting. In this report, we test the overkill and climate-change hypotheses by using global archaeological spatiotemporal patterning in proboscidean kill/scavenge sites. Spanning approximately 1.8 million years, the archaeological record of human subsistence exploitation of proboscideans is preferentially located on the edges of the human geographic range. This finding is commensurate with global overkill, suggesting that prehistoric human range expansion resulted in localized extinction events. In the present and the past, proboscideans have survived in refugia that are largely inaccessible to human populations.     

Twentieth century climate change: evidence from small glaciers

The relation between changes in modern glaciers, not including the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica, and their climatic environment is investigated to shed light on paleoglacier evidence of past climate change and for projecting the effects of future climate warming on cold regions of the world. Loss of glacier volume has been more or less continuous since the 19th century, but it is not a simple adjustment to the end of an "anomalous" Little Ice Age. We address the 1961-1997 period, which provides the most observational data on volume changes. These data show trends that are highly variable with time as well as within and between regions; trends in the Arctic are consistent with global averages but are quantitatively smaller. The averaged annual volume loss is 147 mm.yr(-1) in water equivalent, totaling 3.7 x 10(3) km(3) over 37 yr. The time series shows a shift during the mid-1970s, followed by more rapid loss of ice volume and further acceleration in the last decade; this is consistent with climatologic data. Perhaps most significant is an increase in annual accumulation along with an increase in melting; these produce a marked increase in the annual turnover or amplitude. The rise in air temperature suggested by the temperature sensitivities of glaciers in cold regions is somewhat greater than the global average temperature rise derived largely from low altitude gauges, and the warming is accelerating.     

Responses to historical climate change identify contemporary threats to diversity in Dodecatheon

Anthropogenic climate change may threaten many species with extinction. However, species at risk today survived global climate change in recent geological history. Describing how habitat tracking and adaptation allowed species to survive warming since the end of the Pleistocene can indicate the relative importance of dispersal and natural selection during climate change. By taking this historical perspective, we can identify how contemporary climate change could interfere with these mechanisms and threaten the most vulnerable species. We focused on a group of closely related plant species in the genus Dodecatheon (Primulaceae) in eastern North America. Two rare species (Dodecatheon amethystinum and Dodecatheon frenchii) that are endemic to patchy cool cliffs may be glacial relicts whose ranges constricted following the last glacial maximum. Alternatively, these species may be extreme ecotypes of a single widespread species (Dodecatheon meadia) that quickly adapted to microclimatic differences among habitats. We test support for these alternative scenarios by combining ecophysiological and population genetic data at a regional scale. An important ecophysiological trait distinguishes rare species from D. meadia, but only a few northern populations of D. amethystinum are genetically distinctive. These relict populations indicate that habitat tracking did occur with historical climate change. However, relatively stronger evidence for isolation by distance and admixture suggests that local adaptation and genetic introgression have been at least as important. The complex response of Dodecatheon to historical climate change suggests that contemporary conservation efforts should accommodate evolutionary processes, in some cases by restoring genetic connectivity between ecologically differentiated populations.     

Chemical and archaeological evidence for the earliest cacao beverages

Chemical analyses of residues extracted from pottery vessels from Puerto Escondido in what is now Honduras show that cacao beverages were being made there before 1000 B.C., extending the confirmed use of cacao back at least 500 years. The famous chocolate beverage served on special occasions in later times in Mesoamerica, especially by elites, was made from cacao seeds. The earliest cacao beverages consumed at Puerto Escondido were likely produced by fermenting the sweet pulp surrounding the seeds.     

Recent ecological responses to climate change support predictions of high extinction risk

Predicted effects of climate change include high extinction risk for many species, but confidence in these predictions is undermined by a perceived lack of empirical support. Many studies have now documented ecological responses to recent climate change, providing the opportunity to test whether the magnitude and nature of recent responses match predictions. Here, we perform a global and multitaxon metaanalysis to show that empirical evidence for the realized effects of climate change supports predictions of future extinction risk. We use International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria as a common scale to estimate extinction risks from a wide range of climate impacts, ecological responses, and methods of analysis, and we compare predictions with observations. Mean extinction probability across studies making predictions of the future effects of climate change was 7% by 2100 compared with 15% based on observed responses. After taking account of possible bias in the type of climate change impact analyzed and the parts of the world and taxa studied, there was less discrepancy between the two approaches: predictions suggested a mean extinction probability of 10% across taxa and regions, whereas empirical evidence gave a mean probability of 14%. As well as mean overall extinction probability, observations also supported predictions in terms of variability in extinction risk and the relative risk associated with broad taxonomic groups and geographic regions. These results suggest that predictions are robust to methodological assumptions and provide strong empirical support for the assertion that anthropogenic climate change is now a major threat to global biodiversity.     

Urban growth, climate change, and freshwater availability

Nearly 3 billion additional urban dwellers are forecasted by 2050, an unprecedented wave of urban growth. While cities struggle to provide water to these new residents, they will also face equally unprecedented hydrologic changes due to global climate change. Here we use a detailed hydrologic model, demographic projections, and climate change scenarios to estimate per-capita water availability for major cities in the developing world, where urban growth is the fastest. We estimate the amount of water physically available near cities and do not account for problems with adequate water delivery or quality. Modeled results show that currently 150 million people live in cities with perennial water shortage, defined as having less than 100 L per person per day of sustainable surface and groundwater flow within their urban extent. By 2050, demographic growth will increase this figure to almost 1 billion people. Climate change will cause water shortage for an additional 100 million urbanites. Freshwater ecosystems in river basins with large populations of urbanites with insufficient water will likely experience flows insufficient to maintain ecological process. Freshwater fish populations will likely be impacted, an issue of special importance in regions such as India's Western Ghats, where there is both rapid urbanization and high levels of fish endemism. Cities in certain regions will struggle to find enough water for the needs of their residents and will need significant investment if they are to secure adequate water supplies and safeguard functioning freshwater ecosystems for future generations.     

Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies

Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simulated regional climate. Accordingly, 42 performance metrics based on seasonal temperature and precipitation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are constructed and applied to 21 global models. However, no strong relationship is found between the score of the models on the metrics and results of the D&A analysis. Instead, the importance of having ensembles of runs with enough realizations to reduce the effects of natural internal climate variability is emphasized. Also, the superiority of the multimodel ensemble average (MM) to any 1 individual model, already found in global studies examining the mean climate, is true in this regional study that includes measures of variability as well. Evidence is shown that this superiority is largely caused by the cancellation of offsetting errors in the individual global models. Results with both the MM and models picked randomly confirm the original D&A results of anthropogenically forced JFM temperature changes in the western U.S. Future projections of temperature do not depend on model performance until the 2080s, after which the better performing models show warmer temperatures.     

Assessing risks of climate variability and climate change for Indonesian rice agriculture

El Ni?o events typically lead to delayed rainfall and decreased rice planting in Indonesia's main rice-growing regions, thus prolonging the hungry season and increasing the risk of annual rice deficits. Here we use a risk assessment framework to examine the potential impact of El Ni?o events and natural variability on rice agriculture in 2050 under conditions of climate change, with a focus on two main rice-producing areas: Java and Bali. We select a 30-day delay in monsoon onset as a threshold beyond which significant impact on the country's rice economy is likely to occur. To project the future probability of monsoon delay and changes in the annual cycle of rainfall, we use output from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 suite of climate models, forced by increasing greenhouse gases, and scale it to the regional level by using empirical downscaling models. Our results reveal a marked increase in the probability of a 30-day delay in monsoon onset in 2050, as a result of changes in the mean climate, from 9-18% today (depending on the region) to 30-40% at the upper tail of the distribution. Predictions of the annual cycle of precipitation suggest an increase in precipitation later in the crop year (April-June) of approximately 10% but a substantial decrease (up to 75% at the tail) in precipitation later in the dry season (July-September). These results indicate a need for adaptation strategies in Indonesian rice agriculture, including increased investments in water storage, drought-tolerant crops, crop diversification, and early warning systems.     

Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California

The magnitude of future climate change depends substantially on the greenhouse gas emission pathways we choose. Here we explore the implications of the highest and lowest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions pathways for climate change and associated impacts in California. Based on climate projections from two state-of-the-art climate models with low and medium sensitivity (Parallel Climate Model and Hadley Centre Climate Model, version 3, respectively), we find that annual temperature increases nearly double from the lower B1 to the higher A1fi emissions scenario before 2100. Three of four simulations also show greater increases in summer temperatures as compared with winter. Extreme heat and the associated impacts on a range of temperature-sensitive sectors are substantially greater under the higher emissions scenario, with some interscenario differences apparent before midcentury. By the end of the century under the B1 scenario, heatwaves and extreme heat in Los Angeles quadruple in frequency while heat-related mortality increases two to three times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 50-75%; and Sierra snowpack is reduced 30-70%. Under A1fi, heatwaves in Los Angeles are six to eight times more frequent, with heat-related excess mortality increasing five to seven times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 75-90%; and snowpack declines 73-90%, with cascading impacts on runoff and streamflow that, combined with projected modest declines in winter precipitation, could fundamentally disrupt California's water rights system. Although interscenario differences in climate impacts and costs of adaptation emerge mainly in the second half of the century, they are strongly dependent on emissions from preceding decades.     

Mushroom fruiting and climate change

Many species of fungi produce ephemeral autumnal fruiting bodies to spread and multiply. Despite their attraction for mushroom pickers and their economic importance, little is known about the phenology of fruiting bodies. Using approximately 34,500 dated herbarium records we analyzed changes in the autumnal fruiting date of mushrooms in Norway over the period 1940-2006. We show that the time of fruiting has changed considerably over this time period, with an average delay in fruiting since 1980 of 12.9 days. The changes differ strongly between species and groups of species. Early-fruiting species have experienced a stronger delay than late fruiters, resulting in a more compressed fruiting season. There is also a geographic trend of earlier fruiting in the northern and more continental parts of Norway than in more southern and oceanic parts. Incorporating monthly precipitation and temperature variables into the analyses provides indications that increasing temperatures during autumn and winter months bring about significant delay of fruiting both in the same year and in the subsequent year. The recent changes in autumnal mushroom phenology coincide with the extension of the growing season caused by global climate change and are likely to continue under the current climate change scenario.     

Insects and recent climate change

Insects have diversified through more than 450 million y of Earth’s changeable climate, yet rapidly shifting patterns of temperature and precipitation now pose novel challenges as they combine with decades of other anthropogenic stressors including the conversion and degradation of land. Here, we consider how insects are responding to recent climate change while summarizing the literature on long-term monitoring of insect populations in the context of climatic fluctuations. Results to date suggest that climate change impacts on insects have the potential to be considerable, even when compared with changes in land use. The importance of climate is illustrated with a case study from the butterflies of Northern California, where we find that population declines have been severe in high-elevation areas removed from the most immediate effects of habitat loss. These results shed light on the complexity of montane-adapted insects responding to changing abiotic conditions. We also consider methodological issues that would improve syntheses of results across long-term insect datasets and highlight directions for future empirical work.     

Food, livestock production, energy, climate change, and health

Food provides energy and nutrients, but its acquisition requires energy expenditure. In post-hunter-gatherer societies, extra-somatic energy has greatly expanded and intensified the catching, gathering, and production of food. Modern relations between energy, food, and health are very complex, raising serious, high-level policy challenges. Together with persistent widespread under-nutrition, over-nutrition (and sedentarism) is causing obesity and associated serious health consequences. Worldwide, agricultural activity, especially livestock production, accounts for about a fifth of total greenhouse-gas emissions, thus contributing to climate change and its adverse health consequences, including the threat to food yields in many regions. Particular policy attention should be paid to the health risks posed by the rapid worldwide growth in meat consumption, both by exacerbating climate change and by directly contributing to certain diseases. To prevent increased greenhouse-gas emissions from this production sector, both the average worldwide consumption level of animal products and the intensity of emissions from livestock production must be reduced. An international contraction and convergence strategy offers a feasible route to such a goal. The current global average meat consumption is 100 g per person per day, with about a ten-fold variation between high-consuming and low-consuming populations. 90 g per day is proposed as a working global target, shared more evenly, with not more than 50 g per day coming from red meat from ruminants (ie, cattle, sheep, goats, and other digastric grazers).