Imaging and clinical prognostic indicators of acute pancreatitis: a comparative insight

Acute pancreatitis is a disease with a broad spectrum of clinical presentation. It varies in severity from mild edematous pancreatitis with mostly uneventful recovery to severe necrotizing forms associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Various severity scoring systems are used for assessing the prognosis of acute pancreatitis. These include the clinical scoring scales as Ranson criteria, Glasgow scales, simplified acute physiology (SAP) score and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) score. The CT severity index (CTSI) derived by Balthazar grading of pancreatitis and the extent of pancreatic necrosis is now widely used in describing CT findings of acute pancreatitis and serves as the radiological scoring system. The purpose of this review is to analyze the correlation of clinical and radiological scoring scales with patient outcome and assess their role as objective prognosticators of acute pancreatitis patients.     

Potential of adipocytokines in predicting peripancreatic necrosis and severity in acute pancreatitis: pilot study

Background and Aim: Severe acute pancreatitis is characterized by lipase‐induced peripancreatic fat cell necrosis. Because adipocytes secret several highly active molecules, the aim of the present study was to investigate the hypothesis that adipocytokines could serve as potential markers predicting peripancreatic necrosis and severity in acute pancreatitis. Methods: A total of 23 patients (11 females, 12 males) with acute pancreatitis were included and a computed tomography (CT) examination was available in 20 patients. Balthazar score, Schröder score, pancreatic necrosis score, Ranson score and APACHE II score were calculated, correlated with biochemical parameters and analyzed using receiver‐operator characteristics (ROC) analysis. Adipocytokine serum levels were measured daily by enzyme‐linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) over 10 days after admission. Results: Resistin and leptin were significantly elevated in patients with severe pancreatitis and were correlated with a radiological scoring system for extrapancreatic necrosis. Whereas resistin correlated positively with clinical scoring systems, time until discharge and the need for interventions, leptin was correlated positively with C‐reactive protein (CRP) levels. Resistin levels measured on the day of admittance had a positive predictive value of 93.3% (cut‐off: >6.95 ng/mL) in predicting a Schröder score >3. Conclusion: Resistin, and to a lesser extent leptin, but not adiponectin levels are novel potential markers for extrapancreatic necrosis and severity of acute pancreatitis and should therefore be tested in larger cohorts of patients.     

Comparison of Existing Clinical Scoring Systems in Predicting Severity and Prognoses of Hyperlipidemic Acute Pancreatitis in Chinese Patients: A Retrospective Study

It is important to identify the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP) in the early course of the disease. Clinical scoring systems may be helpful to predict the prognosis of patients with early AP; however, few analysts have forecast the accuracy of scoring systems for the prognosis in hyperlipidemic acute pancreatitis (HLAP). The purpose of this study was to summarize the clinical characteristics of HLAP and compare the accuracy of conventional scoring systems in predicting the prognosis of HLAP.This study retrospectively analyzed all consecutively diagnosed AP patients between September 2008 and March 2014. We compared the clinical characteristics between HLAP and nonhyperlipidemic acute pancreatitis. The bedside index for severity of acute pancreatitis (BISAP), Ranson, computed tomography severity index (CTSI), and systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) scores were applied within 48 hours following admission.Of 909 AP patients, 129 (14.2%) had HLAP, 20 were classified as severe acute pancreatitis (SAP), 8 had pseudocysts, 9 had pancreatic necrosis, 30 had pleural effusions, 33 had SIRS, 14 had persistent organ failure, and there was 1 death. Among the HLAP patients, the area under curves for BISAP, Ranson, SIRS, and CTSI in predicting SAP were 0.905, 0.938, 0.812, and 0.834, 0.874, 0.726, 0.668, and 0.848 for local complications, and 0.904, 0.917, 0.758, and 0.849 for organ failure, respectively.HLAP patients were characterized by younger age at onset, higher recurrence rate, and being more prone to pancreatic necrosis, organ failure, and SAP. BISAP, Ranson, SIRS, and CTSI all have accuracy in predicting the prognosis of HLAP patients, but each has different strengths and weaknesses.     

Evaluation of Severity in Patients with Acute Pancreatitis

We compared the multiple organ system failure (MOSF) score, the Acute Physiologic and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, and Ranson and Imrie scores for their predictive value in evaluating severity of acute pancreatitis. Of the 259 patients, 73 (28%) had severe disease. Fifty-two (20%) patients had organ system failure (OSF) on admission, and 59% of patients with severe disease had OSF. Shortly after admission, only MOSF and APACHE II scores were available, and in patients with severe disease, these predictions were correct in 64% and 60%, respectively. Forty-eight hours later, the MOSF score was the most sensitive, and correctly predicted outcome in 67% of patients, compared with about 60% for other scores. Of four scoring systems, only MOSF and APACHE II scores allowed repetitive assessment to monitor the course of the disease. MOSF score is organ-specific and may be better than APACHE II in reflecting disease activity. Our results suggest that the MOSF score is valuable in early identification and close monitoring of high risk patients and in deciding on therapy in these patients.     

Comparison of scoring systems in predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis

AIM:To investigate the prognostic usefulness of several existing scoring systems in predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis(AP).METHODS:We retrospectively analyzed the prospectively collected clinical database from consecutive patients with AP in our institution between January 2011 and December 2012.Ranson,Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation(APACHE)-Ⅱ,and bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis(BISAP)scores,and computed tomography severity index(CTSI)of all patients were calculated.Serum C-reactive protein(CRP)levels were measured at admission(CRPi)and after 24h(CRP24).Severe AP was defined as persistent organ failure for more than 48 h.The predictive accuracy of each scoring system was measured by the area under the receiver-operating curve(AUC).RESULTS:Of 161 patients,21(13%)were classified as severe AP,and 3(1.9%)died.Statistically significant cutoff values for prediction of severe AP were Ranson≥3,BISAP≥2,APACHE-Ⅱ≥8,CTSI≥3,and CRP24≥21.4.AUCs for Ranson,BISAP,APACHE-Ⅱ,CTSI,and CRP24 in predicting severe AP were 0.69(95%CI:0.62-0.76),0.74(95%CI:0.66-0.80),0.78(95%CI:0.70-0.84),0.69(95%CI:0.61-0.76),and0.68(95%CI:0.57-0.78),respectively.APACHE-Ⅱdemonstrated the highest accuracy for prediction of severe AP,however,no statistically significant pairwise differences were observed between APACHE-Ⅱand the other scoring systems,including CRP24.CONCLUSION:Various scoring systems showed similar predictive accuracy for severity of AP.Unique models are needed in order to achieve further improvement of prognostic accuracy.     

Do we need a computed tomography examination in all patients with acute pancreatitis within 72 h after admission to hospital for the detection of pancreatic necrosis?

BACKGROUND: The aim of this prospective study was to define the role of an initial contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT) obtained within 72 h after admission to hospital for determining the prognosis of acute pancreatitis and to investigate whether CT scans can be replaced by conventional prognostic parameters. METHODS: The study involves 231 patients admitted to the Lüneburg clinic with a first attack of acute pancreatitis from 1988 to 1995. In all of them, a contrast-enhanced CT was performed within 72 h of admission and scored according to Balthazar. The results were compared with the Ranson and Imrie laboratory prognostic scores and with parameters of the severity of the disease: the initial organ failure according to the Atlanta classification; days spent on intensive care unit or altogether in hospital; indication for artificial ventilation, dialysis and surgical intervention (necrosectomy); development of pancreatic pseudocysts; and mortality. RESULTS: Although there was a good statistical correlation between Ranson, Imrie, and Balthazar scores with the severity of the disease (P < 0.001 to P = 0.03), low and moderately raised Ranson (0-2, 0-5 points) and Imrie scores (0-1.0-3 points) failed to identify all patients with pancreatic necrosis with sufficient sensitivity rates (31.7; 78.0 and 39.0; 78.0%), positive (32.6; 25.3 and 75.0; 45.0%) and negative (91.0; 87.9 and 85.4; 84.8%) predictive values. CONCLUSIONS: A contrast-enhanced CT on admission correlates significantly with the severity of the disease and cannot be replaced by conventional laboratory prognostic scores. The decision to use a CT cannot depend on the results of the Ranson/Imrie scores.     

The APACHE II score is unreliable to diagnose necrotizing pancreatitis on admission to hospital

INTRODUCTION: The APACHE II score is highly recommended worldwide for the assessment of severe pancreatitis (interstitial and necrotizing), and a score of at least eight points on admission to the hospital is said to indicate severe pancreatitis. AIM: To evaluate this assumption and to check whether an APACHE II score of at least eight points really indicates necrotizing pancreatitis as shown by contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT). METHODOLOGY: This study included 326 patients with a first attack of acute pancreatitis and is part of a prospective study on the natural course of acute pancreatitis. All patients underwent contrast-enhanced CT within 72 hours of admission. The following parameters for the severity of the disease were used: respiratory and renal failure according to the Atlanta classification; indication for dialysis, ventilation, and surgery; time spent in intensive care unit and total hospital stay; Ranson score adjusted for cause; Imrie score; and Balthazar score (CT). RESULTS: Of the 326 patients, 262 (80%) had interstitial pancreatitis and 64 (20%) had necrotizing pancreatitis. In 74 (28%) of the 262 patients with interstitial pancreatitis, the APACHE II score was at least eight points, indicating severe pancreatitis (overestimation of the disease), whereas the score was less than eight in 41 (64%) of 64 patients with necrotizing pancreatitis (underestimation). Sensitivity was 36%; specificity was 72%; the positive predictive value was 24%; and the negative predictive value was 82%. CONCLUSION: The evaluation of sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive value for all APACHE II score points showed that there was not a "golden" cutoff to detect necrotizing pancreatitis. We conclude that the APACHE II score on admission to the hospital is unreliable to diagnose necrotizing pancreatitis.     

Prognostic values of IL-6, IL-8, and IL-10 in acute pancreatitis

GOALS: The prognostic importance of interleukin-6 (IL-6), IL-8, and IL-10 in the prediction of acute pancreatitis severity. BACKGROUND: Early assessment of severity in acute pancreatitis could help the patients who are at risk of developing complications. Unfortunately, the used prognostic scoring systems generally are only moderately accurate in assessing disease severity. STUDY: We studied 117 consecutive patients with a diagnosis of acute pancreatitis admitted to our hospital during the past 2 years. Laboratory parameters and cytokines were analyzed from serum taken routinely on admission. Severity criteria were noted for each patient using Ranson, Glasgow, and APACHE II scoring systems. Local and systemic complications, developed during a follow-up period, were classified by Atlanta criteria. RESULTS: IL-6 was the only parameter that statistically significantly predicted complicated acute pancreatitis (P<0.05). IL-8 and IL-10 and the 3 prognostic scoring systems used did not properly assess complicated versus noncomplicated acute pancreatitis. CONCLUSIONS: Our prospective study supported the potential importance of IL-6 in the early assessment of complicated acute pancreatitis, but also suggested that pancreatitis classified as complicated in a large number of patients could not be correctly predicted with the Ranson, Glasgow, and APACHE II scoring systems.     

Evaluation of diagnostic findings and scoring systems in outcome prediction in acute pancreatitis

AIM: To determine factors related to disease severity, mortality and morbidity in acute pancreatitis. METHODS: One hundred and ninety-nine consecutive patients were admitted with the diagnosis of acute pancreatitis (AP) in a 5-year period (1998-2002). In a prospective design, demographic data, etiology, mean hospital admission time, clinical, radiological, biochemical findings, treatment modalities, mortality and morbidity were recorded. Endocrine insuffi ciency was investigated with oral glucose tolerance test. The relations between these parameters, scoring systems (Ranson, Imrie and APACHE Ⅱ) and patients' outcome were determined by using invariable tests and the receiver operating characteristics curve. RESULTS: One hundred patients were men and 99 were women; the mean age was 55 years. Biliary pancreatitis was the most common form, followed by idiopathic pancreatitis (53/ and 26/, respectively). Sixty-three patients had severe pancreatitis and 136 had mild disease. Respiratory rate > 20/min, pulse rate > 90/min, increased C-reactive protein (CRP), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) levels, organ necrosis > 30/ on computed tomography (CT) and leukocytosis were associated with severe disease. The rate of glucose intolerance, morbidity and mortality were 24.1/, 24.8/ and 13.6/, respectively. CRP > 142 mg/L, BUN > 22 mg/dL, LDH > 667 U/L, base excess > -5, CT severity index > 3 and APACHE score > 8 were related to morbidity and mortality. CONCLUSION: APACHE Ⅱ score, LDH, base excess and CT severity index have prognostic value and CRP is a reliable marker for predicting both mortality and morbidity.     

Sensory and biomechanical properties of the esophagus in non-erosive reflux disease

Background: The aim of this prospective study was to define the role of an initial contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT) obtained within 72 h after admission to hospital for determining the prognosis of acute pancreatitis and to investigate whether CT scans can be replaced by conventional prognostic parameters. Methods: The study involves 231 patients admitted to the Lüneburg clinic with a first attack of acute pancreatitis from 1988 to 1995. In all of them, a contrast-enhanced CT was performed within 72 h of admission and scored according to Balthazar. The results were compared with the Ranson and Imrie laboratory prognostic scores and with parameters of the severity of the disease: the initial organ failure according to the Atlanta classification; days spent on intensive care unit or altogether in hospital; indication for artificial ventilation, dialysis and surgical intervention (necrosectomy); development of pancreatic pseudocysts; and mortality. Results: Although there was a good statistical correlation between Ranson, Imrie, and Balthazar scores with the severity of the disease (P &lt; 0.001 to P = 0.03), low and moderately raised Ranson (0-2, 0-5 points) and Imrie scores (0-1, 0-3 points) failed to identify all patients with pancreatic necrosis with sufficient sensitivity rates (31.7; 78.0 and 39.0; 78.0%), positive (32.6; 25.3 and 75.0; 45.0%) and negative (91.0; 87.9 and 85.4; 84.8%) predictive values. Conclusions: A contrast-enhanced CT on admission correlates significantly with the severity of the disease and cannot be replaced by conventional laboratory prognostic scores. The decision to use a CT cannot depend on the results of the Ranson/Imrie scores.     

Predicting fatal outcome in the early phase of severe acute pancreatitis by using novel prognostic models

Background/Aims: Survival in acute pancreatitis and particularly in severe acute and necrotizing pancreatitis is a combination of therapy-associated and patient-related factors. There are only few relevant methods for predicting fatal outcome in acute pancreatitis. Scores such as Ranson, Imrie, Blamey, and APACHE II are practical in assessing the severity of the disease, but are not sufficiently validated for predicting fatal outcome among patients with severe acute pancreatitis. The aim of this study was to construct a novel prediction model for predicting fatal outcome in the early phase of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) and to compare this model with previously reported predictive systems. Methods: Hospital records of 253 patients with SAP were retrospectively analyzed. 234 patients with adequate data were included to the test set to construct five logistic regression and three artificial neural network (ANN) models. Two models were tested in an independent prospective validation set of 60 consecutive patients with SAP and compared with previously reported predictive systems. Results: The prediction model considered optimal was a logistic model with four variables: age, highest serum creatinine value within 60–72 h from primary admission, need for mechanical ventilation, and chronic health status. In the validation set, the predictive accuracy, determined by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve value, was 0.862 for the chosen model, 0.847 for the ANN model using eight variables, 0.817 for APACHE II, 0.781 for multiple organ dysfunction score, 0.655 for Ranson, and 0.536 for Imrie scores. Conclusions: Ranson and Imrie scores are inaccurate indicators of the mortality in SAP. A novel predictive model based on four variables can reach at least the same predictive performance as the APACHE II system with 14 variables.     

Severity scoring for acute pancreatitis: Where do we stand in 1999?

The last few years have seen a rapid evolution in the care of acute pancreatitis. Interventions such as endoscopic sphincterotomy with stone extraction and administration of platelet activating factor are effective but must be applied early. Ranson criteria and modified Glasgow score are widely used, but these systems often cannot separate mild versus severe pancreatitits within 24 hours of hospital admission. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) is a good predictive system for severity of disease at admission. New single agent biologic markers hold some promise. The CT severity index is better than APACHE II for predicting local complications but not as good for predicting mortality and systemic morbidity. Modern care of acute pancreatitis requires the development of a rapid response team model, with early assessment by APACHE II, biologic markers, and, if indicated, the CT Severity Index.     

The clinical value of procalcitonin in early assessment of acute pancreatitis

OBJECTIVES: Early assessment of the severity and the etiology is crucial in the management of acute pancreatitis. To determine the value of procalcitonin (PCT) as a prognostic marker and as an indicator of biliary etiology in the early phase of acute pancreatitis. METHODS: In a prospective study, 75 consecutive patients were included (severe pancreatitis in 12 patients, biliary etiology in 42 cases). The value of PCT as a prognostic marker was compared to C-reactive protein (CRP), hematocrit (HCT), acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) II score, and Ranson score. The value of PCT as an indicator of biliary etiology was compared to alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and alkaline phosphatase (AP). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was applied as a measure of the overall accuracy of the single markers and multiple scoring systems. RESULTS: The most accurate prediction of severe disease was provided by the APACHE II score on the day of admission (AUC: APACHE II, 0.78; CRP, 0.73; HCT, 0.73; and PCT, 0.61), and by CRP after 48 h (AUC: CRP, 0.94; Ranson score, 0.81; PCT, 0.71; APACHE II score, 0.69; and HCT, 0.46). ALT was the most accurate indicator of biliary pancreatitis (AUC: ALT, 0.83; AP, 0.81; and PCT, 0.68). CONCLUSIONS: PCT is of limited additional value for early assessment of severity and etiology in acute pancreatitis. CRP is found to be a reliable prognostic marker with a delay of 48 h, while ALT is validated as the best indicator of biliary etiology.     

A simplified method for computed tomographic estimation of prognosis in acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND: Computed tomography is valuable for the diagnosis of acute pancreatitis. Although CT-based prognostic scoring systems are available, they are complex and impractical for routine clinical use. We examined the validity of a simplified CT-based scoring system in a cohort of patients with acute pancreatitis. METHOD: Observational study based on correlation of CT findings with clinical outcomes. Seventy patients admitted to the Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh from January 1991 to December 1997 with a diagnosis of acute pancreatitis and undergoing CT with intravenous contrast during the first 3 to 10 days after admission were included in the study. RESULTS: Multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that the finding of mesenteric oedema and free peritoneal fluid on CT were independent early predictive factors of adverse outcome. Allocating one point each for either mesenteric oedema (MO) or peritoneal fluid (P) (giving a maximum score of 2), a simple MOP score was derived. Compared with the Glasgow and APACHE multiple-factor scoring systems and the Helsinki and Balthazar CT-based scoring systems areas under ROC curves were: admission Apache II 0.57, admission Glasgow 0.62. Balthazar score 0.79, Helsinki score 0.85 and MOP score 0.87. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of mesenteric oedema or peritoneal fluid on CT appears to be a simple and widely applicable predictor of disease severity in acute pancreatitis.     

Severity scoring for acute pancreatitis: Where do we stand in 1999?

The last few years have seen a rapid evolution in the care of acute pancreatitis. Interventions such as endoscopic sphincterotomy with stone extraction and administration of platelet activating factor are effective but must be applied early. Ranson criteria and modified Glasgow score are widely used, but these systems often cannot separate mild versus severe pancreatitits within 24 hours of hospital admission. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) is a good predictive system for severity of disease at admission. New single agent biologic markers hold some promise. The CT severity index is better than APACHE II for predicting local complications but not as good for predicting mortality and systemic morbidity. Modern care of acute pancreatitis requires the development of a rapid response team model, with early assessment by APACHE II, biologic markers, and, if indicated, the CT Severity Index.     

炎症因子联合Ranson评分预测急性胰腺炎严重程度和指导临床治疗的价值分析

目的 探讨炎症因子联合Ranson评分预测急性胰腺炎（AP）严重程度和指导临床治疗的价值。方法 根据2012年Atlanta标准将150例AP患者分为轻度组（50例）、中度组（50例）和重度组（50例），比较各组血清炎症因子[白细胞介素（IL）-6、降钙素原（PCT）、C反应蛋白（CRP）、IL-8、IL-10]水平和Ranson评分，并统计各组病死率，绘制受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线，计算曲线下面积（AUC），比较各指标评估器官功能衰竭和病死率的价值。结果 3组患者发病12h、24h、48h时的PCT、IL-6、CRP逐渐升高，且随着病情严重程度增加而逐渐增高（P＜0.05）；3组患者发病24h时的IL-10水平高于发病12h，但发病48h低于发病24h（P＜0.05）；轻、中、重度组Ranson评分随病情严重程度增加呈递增趋势（P＜0.05）；重度组病死率（16.0%）高于轻度组（0）和中度组（2.0%，P＜0.05）。血清炎症因子中，IL-6评估器官功能衰竭和病死率的AUC＞PCT、CRP；CRP评估胰腺坏死的AUC＞PCT、IL-6；Ranson评分评估器官功能衰竭和病死率的AUC＞PCT、IL-6、CRP；PCT+IL-6+CRP+Ranson评分评估器官功能衰竭、胰腺坏死及病死率AUC均＞Ranson评分及任一血清炎症因子。结论IL-6评估AP患者器官功能衰竭、病死率价值较高，CRP评估胰腺坏死价值较高，PCT、IL-6、CRP与Ranson评分系统联合应用可进一步提高对其器官功能衰竭、胰腺坏死、病死率的预测能力，为临床治疗策略的选择提供参考。     

Balthazar computed tomography severity index is superior to Ranson criteria and APACHE Ⅱ scoring system in predicting acute pancreatitis outcome

AIM: Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a process with variable involvement of regional tissues or organ systems. Multifactorial scales included the Ranson, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) systems and Balthazar computed tomography severity index (CTSI). The purpose of this review study was to assess the accuracy of CTSI, Ranson score, and APACHE II score in course and outcome prediction of AP. METHODS: We reviewed 121 patients who underwent helical CT within 48 h after onset of symptoms of a first episode of AP between 1999 and 2003. Fourteen inappropriate subjects were excluded; we reviewed the 107 contrast-enhanced CT images to calculate the CTSI. We also reviewed their Ranson and APACHE II score. In addition, complications, duration of hospitalization, mortality rate, and other pathology history also were our comparison parameters. RESULTS: We classified 85 patients (79%) as having mild AP (CTSI <5) and 22 patients (21%) as having severe AP (CTSI > or =5). In mild group, the mean APACHE II score and Ranson score was 8.6+/-1.9 and 2.4+/-1.2, and those of severe group was 10.2+/-2.1 and 3.1+/-0.8, respectively. The most common complication was pseudocyst and abscess and it presented in 21 (20%) patients and their CTSI was 5.9+/-1.4. A CTSI > or =5 significantly correlated with death, complication present, and prolonged length of stay. Patients with a CTSI > or =5 were 15 times to die than those CTSI <5, and the prolonged length of stay and complications present were 17 times and 8 times than that in CTSI <5, respectively. CONCLUSION: CTSI is a useful tool in assessing the severity and outcome of AP and the CTSI > or =5 is an index in our study. Although Ranson score and APACHE II score also are choices to be the predictors for complications, mortality and the length of stay of AP, the sensitivity of them are lower than CTSI.     

Hemoconcentration: an early marker of severe and/or necrotizing pancreatitis? A critical appraisal

OBJECTIVE: A study was designed to reevaluate hemoconcentration as an early marker of severe and/or necrotizing pancreatitis and compare it against contrast-enhanced CT, the gold standard to diagnose acute necrotizing pancreatitis. METHODS: This prospective study covers the years 1988-1999 for 316 patients (202 male, 114 female) with a first attack of acute pancreatitis. The role of the hematocrit as an early marker of severe and/or necrotizing pancreatitis has been retrospectively evaluated against the prospectively obtained data. They all underwent a CT within 72 h after admission. In addition to the CT-controlled diagnosis of interstitial/necrotizing pancreatitis, the following variables were used to assess severity: initial organ failure according to the Atlanta classification; indication for artificial ventilation and/or dialysis; Ranson score adjusted for etiology; Imrie score; Balthazar score; length of stay in intensive care unit (ICU); total hospital stay; development of pancreatic pseudocysts; indication for operation (necrosectomy); and mortality. Hemoconcentration on admission was defined as a hematocrit level >43.0% for male and >39.6% for female patients. Logistic regression was used to assess the correlation between hemoconcentration and the severity of variables. RESULTS: Hematocrit, as a single parameter measured on admission, had the same sensitivity and negative predictive value as the more complicated Ranson and Imrie scores obtained only after 48 h. However, its specificity, positive predictive value, and total accuracy were lower. Hemoconcentration significantly correlated with the Balthazar score (differential diagnosis between interstitial and necrotizing pancreatitis), stay in ICU, and total hospital stay. Sensitivity and specificity of the hematocrit cut-off level of 43.0% for male and 39.6% for female patients to detect necrotizing pancreatitis were 74% and 45%, respectively. The positive predictive value was 24% and the negative predictive value 88%. Receiver operation characteristics (ROC) curve values for several cut-offs did not result in more ideal levels. CONCLUSION: Hemoconcentration does not significantly correlate with important clinical outcome variables of acute pancreatitis including organ failure and mortality rate. Its prognostic value is comparable to the more complicated Ranson and Imrie scores obtained only after 48 h. The major value of this single easily obtainable and cheap parameter on admission lies in its high negative predictive value. In the absence of hemoconcentration, contrast-enhanced CT may be unnecessary on admission unless the patient does not improve.     

Early onset of organ failure is the best predictor of mortality in acute pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND: APACHE II is a multifactorial scoring system for predicting severity in acute pancreatitis (AP). Organ failure (OF) has been correlated with mortality in AP. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the usefulness of APACHE II as an early predictor of severity in AP, its correlation with OF, and the relevance of an early establishment of OF during the course of AP. PATIENTS AND METHODS: From January 1999 to November 2001, 447 consecutive cases of AP were studied. APACHE II scores and Atlanta criteria were used for defining severity and OF. RESULTS: Twenty-five percent of patients had severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). APACHE II at 24 h after admission showed a sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive value of 52, 77, 46, and 84%, respectively, for predicting severity. Mortality for SAP was 20.5%. Seventy percent of patients who developed OF did so within the first 24 hours of admission, and their mortality was 52%. Mortality was statistically significant (p< 0.01) if OF was established within the first 24 hours after admission. CONCLUSIONS: APACHE II is not reliable for predicting outcome within the first 24 hours after admission and should therefore be used together with other methods. OF mostly develops within the first days after admission, if ever. The time of onset of OF is the most accurate and reliable method for predicting death risk in AP.     

Effects of 1-Year Interferon-Alpha 2a Treatment in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis C and Persistently Normal Transaminase Activity

Background: Computed tomography is valuable for the diagnosis of acute pancreatitis. Although CT-based prognostic scoring systems are available, they are complex and impractical for routine clinical use. We examined the validity of a simplified CT-based scoring system in a cohort of patients with acute pancreatitis. Method: Observational study based on correlation of CT findings with clinical outcomes. Seventy patients admitted to the Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh from January 1991 to December 1997 with a diagnosis of acute pancreatitis and undergoing CT with intravenous contrast during the first 3 to 10 days after admission were included in the study. Results: Multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that the finding of mesenteric oedema and free peritoneal fluid on CT were independent early predictive factors of adverse outcome. Allocating one point each for either mesenteric oedema (MO) or peritoneal fluid (P) (giving a maximum score of 2), a simple MOP score was derived. Compared with the Glasgow and APACHE multiple-factor scoring systems and the Helsinki and Balthazar CT-based scoring systems areas under ROC curves were: admission Apache II 0.57, admission Glasgow 0.62, Balthazar score 0.79, Helsinki score 0.85 and MOP score 0.87. Conclusions: The presence of mesenteric oedema or peritoneal fluid on CT appears to be a simple and widely applicable predictor of disease severity in acute pancreatitis.