POSSUM评分预测老年胃肠道肿瘤手术风险的临床意义

目的应用POSSUM评分对老年胃肠道肿瘤患者手术风险进行评估,以评价该评分的临床有效性,同时对多个手术风险的单因素进行分析,为临床治疗决策提供参考。方法对234例手术的老年胃肠道肿瘤患者进行POSSUM评分,同时统计术后实际并发症和死亡率,并与评分预测值进行比较,就有可能产生并发症和死亡的多个单因素进行比较分析。结果POSSUM评分预测并发症和死亡率分别为33.8%和6.8%,与实际并发症(26.1%)和死亡率(4.7%)较为接近;单因素比较分析显示5个单因素与并发症的产生有关联,2个单因素与患者死亡有关联。结论POSSUM评分系统可以较好地预测老年胃肠道肿瘤患者术后并发症和死亡率;5个手术风险的单因素应引起临床医师的高度重视。     

运用改良POSSUM评分系统预测颈椎手术并发症发生率

目的探讨改良生理学和手术严重度评分系统（POSSUM）对预测颈椎手术患者术后并发症发生率的意义。方法根据颈椎手术特点修改POSSUM评分系统中的部分指标（将手术严重度指标中的手术范围和手术次数替换为手术方式和手术持续时间．在生理学指标中增加颈椎核磁共振检查）．并对183例颈椎手术患者术后并发症实际发生率和理论预测率进行比较。结果按Copland公式理论预测有59例（32．2％）发生并发症．实际发生为52例（28．4％）．二者比较，差异无显著性意义（P〉0．05）。结论改良POSSUM评分系统能较准确地预测颈椎手术并发症发生率，对临床医疗护理工作有重要的指导意义。     

运用改良POSSUM评分系统预测颈椎手术并发症发生率

目的 探讨改良生理学和手术严重度评分系统(POSSUM)对预测颈椎手术患者术后并发症发生率的意义.方法 根据颈椎手术特点修改POSSUM评分系统中的部分指标(将手术严重度指标中的手术范围和手术次数替换为手术方式和手术持续时间.在生理学指标中增加颈椎核磁共振检查),并对183例颈椎手术患者术后并发症实际发生率和理论预测率进行比较.结果 按Copland公式理论预测有59例(32.2%)发生并发症,实际发生为52例(28.4%),二者比较,差异无显著性意义(P>0.05).结论 改良POSSUM评分系统能较准确地预测颈椎手术并发症发生率,对临床医疗护理工作有重要的指导意义.     

POSSUM评分系统的临床应用

POSSUM评分系统由Copeland等于1991年建立;利用患者的术前生理评分和术中的手术评分来预测患者的手术死亡率和并发症发生率,以评估手术风险。经过多年的临床应用和改进,POSSUM评分系统对于手术风险评估的价值得到肯定,现已被广泛地应用于外科各领域的手术风险评估中。     

POSSUM评分系统预测高龄患者胰十二指肠切除术风险的价值

目的：探讨应用POSSUM评分系统评估高龄患者行胰十二指肠切除术（PD）风险的可靠性。方法：将2010年2月—2011年2月间收治的80例行PD患者按照年龄进行分为两组,其中38例≥80岁者为研究组,42例<80岁者作为对照组。分析两组术中、术后情况,比较两组POSSUM评分及POSSUM评分系统对两组并发症发生率与病死率的预测值与实际值间的差异。结果：研究组与对照组比较,手术时间、术中出血量、输血量均无统计学差异（P>0.05）,但研究组的住院时间长于对照组（P<0.05）。研究组的POSSUM评分明显高于对照组的POSSUM评分（P<0.05）;研究组实际术后并发症发生率和病死率与预测值无统计学差异（P>0.05）,而对照组的实际术后并发症发生率和病死率均低于预测值（P<0.05）。结论：采用POSSUM评分系统能够较准确评估高龄患者行PD的手术风险,故对患者围术期管理具有重要的指导意义。

     

POSSUM和P-POSSUM评分系统对老年股骨颈骨折手术风险的预测研究

目的 探讨生理学和手术严重度评分系统,即POSSUM和P-POSSOM评分系统,对老年股骨颈骨折手术的手术风险预测价值.方法 首都医科大学附属北京友谊医院骨科于2010年1月-2012年5月收治因股骨颈骨折行人工关节置换手术治疗的老年患者108例,应用POSSUM和P-POSSUM评分系统预测患者手术病死率和并发症发病率,分析人工髋关节置换手术风险预测值和观察值之间的差异.同时对病例资料进行分组比较,分析不同组别间的预测情况是否存在差异.结果 根据POSSUM评分系统预测,47例患者术后发生并发症,平均并发症发病率为43.52％,而实际发生并发症37例,实际并发症发病率为34.26％,预测值与实际值差异无统计学意义(P=0.238);预测11例死亡,平均病死率为10.19％,实际死亡2例,实际病死率为1.85％,预测值明显高于实际值.根据P-POSSUM评分系统预测的病死率(预测死亡4例,平均病死率为3.70％,实际死亡2例,实际病死率为1.85％),预测值与实际值差异无统计学意义(P=0.625).以POSSUM评分得分40分为界分组,两组并发症发病率及病死率的预测值与实际值分组比较差异无统计学意义(P =0.527,P =0.285).结论 POSSUM评分系统能较好地预测老年股骨颈骨折手术患者并发症发病率,但过高估计手术病死率;P-POSSUM评分系统能准确地预测手术病死率,对于高危组患者的预测结果尤为满意.     

胃肠道肿瘤术后肺脏并发症的临床研究

目的:探讨胃肠道肿瘤手术后肺脏并发症的影响因素及诊治经验.方法:回顾性分析21 5例胃肠道肿瘤手术患者的临床资料,分为肺脏并发症组和无肺脏并发症组,对比分析2组患者的年龄、吸烟史、手术时间、手术部位、术前肺功能及监测术前及术后血气分析等6个相关因素,探讨这些因素与术后肺脏并发症的关系.结果:215例患者中41例发生肺脏并发症;肺脏并发症组患者平均年龄(62.5±5.2)岁,手术时间(3.1±1.2)h,无肺脏并发症组患者平均年龄(54.5±9.4)岁,手术时间(2.9±0.8)h,2组患者差异有统计学意义(P＜0.05).吸烟、上腹部手术、术前FEV1％、FEV1/FVC％、MW％异常者术后发生肺脏并发症的危险性增加(P＜0.05).2组患者术后动脉血气分析指标比较差异有统计学意义(P＜0.05).结论:年龄、吸烟史、手术时间、手术部位、术前肺功能异常可能是胃肠道肿瘤手术患者发生术后肺脏并发症的危险因素,加强术后血气分析监测有着重要临床意义.     

POSSUM、P-POSSUM、Cr-POSSUM及新评分系统对中国结直肠癌患者术后死亡率的预测

RenL、UpadhyayAM及WangL比较好计算死亡率及并发症发病率的生理学和手术侵袭度评分系统（POSSUM）、朴茨茅斯评分系统（P—POSSUM）和结直肠评分系统（Cr-POSSUM）预测中国结直肠癌患者外科手术死亡率的准确性,同时开发新的评分系统以提高其预测准确性。     

应用APACHEⅡ和POSSUM评分指导胰腺癌患者外科治疗的临床分析

目的 探讨POSSUM和APACHEⅡ评分系统对胰腺癌患者外科治疗影响的临床价值。方法 应用POSSUM和APACHEⅡ评分系统对84例胰腺癌患者围手术期进行回顾分析。结果 本组患者中,青年组（n=36)的病死率和并发症分别为5.5%和19.4%,老年组（n=48)病死率和并发症分别为6.2%和20.8%略低于APACHEⅡ和POSSUM评分预测的老年组病死率（12.5%)和并发症（25.5%),中青年组病死率（11.1%)和并发症（25%）。结论 PSSSUM和APACHEⅡ能反映胰腺癌患者的病情,并且可影响选择最适宜的手术方式,POSSUM评分系统更适宜于指导胰腺癌手术的围手术期处理。     

POSSUM评分系统预测肝癌患者术后并发症发生率及病死率的意义

目的 :探讨POSSUM评分系统预测肝癌患者术后并发症发生率及病死率的临床意义。方法 :2009~2014年294例手术治疗的肝癌患者进行POSSUM及P-POSSUM评分,预测术后并发症发生率及病死率,并分别与实际并发症发生率及病死率比较。结果:POSSUM评分系统预测并发症发生率18%(53/294),实际发生率14%(42/294),差异无统计学意义(P=0.218),预测病死率5.1%(15/294),实际病死率1.02%(3/294),差异有统计学意义(P=0.004)。P-POSSUM预测病死率2.4%(7/294),实际病死率1.02%(3/294),差异无统计学意义(P=0.339)。结论:POSSUM评分系统能够较准确地预测肝癌患者术后并发症的发生率,但高估了术后病死率,P-POSSUM预测术后病死率更为准确。     

Analysis of POSSUM score and postoperative morbidity in patients with rectal cancer undergoing surgery

Background  The Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality andmorbidity (POSSUM) and later modifications (P-POSSUM y CR-POSSUM) have been used to predictmorbidity and mortality rates among patients with rectal cancer undergoing surgery. These calculations needsome adjustment, however. The aim of this study was to assess the applicability of POSSUM to a group ofpatients with rectal cancer undergoing surgery, analysing surgical morbidity by means of several variables. Methods   between January 1995 and December 2004, 273 consecutive patients underwent surgery forrectal cancer. Information was gathered about the patients, tumour and therapy. To assess the predictioncapacity of POSSUM, subgroups for analysis were created according to variables related to operativemorbidity and mortality. Results  The global morbidity rate was 23.6% (31.2% predicted by POSSUM). The mortality rate was 0.7%(6.64, 1.95 and 2.08 predicted by POSSUM, P-POSSUM and CR-POSSUM respectively). POSSUMpredictions may be more accurate for patients younger than 51 years, older than 70 years, with low anaesthetic risk (ASA I/II), DUKES stage C and D, surgery duration of less than 180 minutes and for thosereceiving neoadjuvant therapy. Conclusion  POSSUM is a good instrument to make results between different institutions and publicationcomparable. We found prediction errors for some variables related to morbidity. Modifications of surgicalvariables and specifications for neoadjuvant therapy as well as physiological variables including life stylemay improve future prediction of surgical risk. More research is needed to identify further potential riskfactors for surgical complications.     

Prospective comparison of POSSUM and P-POSSUM with clinical assessment of mortality following emergency surgery

BACKGROUND: Tools to accurately estimate the risk of death following emergency surgery are useful adjuncts to informed consent and clinical decisions. This prospective study compared the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) and Portsmouth POSSUM (P-POSSUM) scoring systems with clinical judgement in predicting mortality from emergency surgery. METHODS: Data were collected prospectively from 163 patients. Details of the physiological and operative severity scores were recorded for POSSUM and P-POSSUM. The estimates of both the surgeon and anaesthetist for 30-day and in-hospital mortality were also recorded pre-operatively. The accuracies of the four predictions were then compared with actual mortalities using linear and exponential analysis and receiver operator characteristics (ROC). RESULTS: P-POSSUM gave the most accurate prediction of 30-day mortality using linear analysis [observed to expected ratio (O : E) = 1.0]. POSSUM gave the most accurate prediction using exponential analysis (O : E = 1.15). Clinical judgement of mortality from both operating surgeons and anaesthetists compared favourably with the scoring systems for 30-day mortality (O : E = 0.83 and O : E = 0.93, respectively). ROC analyses showed both clinical judgement and the POSSUM scores to be good predictors of 30-day mortality with area under the curve values (AUC) of 0.903, 0.907, 0.946 and 0.940 for surgeons, anaesthetists, POSSUM and P-POSSUM respectively. CONCLUSIONS: POSSUM and P-POSSUM appear to be useful indicators for the prediction of mortality. Clinical judgement compares strongly with scoring systems in predicting post-operative mortality, but may underestimate mortality in very high-risk patients with more than 90% mortality.     

结直肠癌患者住院期间病死率新评分系统的建立和评价

目的建立预测术后病死率的改良P-POSSUM和改良Cr-POSSUM评分系统并与POSSUM比较，评价其对结直肠癌患者住院期间病死率的预测能力。方法调查北京大学第三医院1992-2005年间结直肠癌经手术切除的903例患者资料，按70：30把本组病例分成建立模型样本和预测模型样本，用Logistic回归分析建立改良P-POSSUM和改良Cr-POSSUM，用ROC曲线分析判断改良P-POSSUM和改良Cr-POSSUM评分的判别能力，用Hosmer-Lemeshow检验判断评分的拟合优度，用不同危险因素群的O：E值判断评分的预测能力。结果本组患者住院期间的病死率为1．0％（9／903）。POSSUM、P-POSSUM和Cr-POSSUM评分预测的病死率明显高于实际病死率，O：E值分别为0．18、0．35和0．20。改良P-POSSUM除在急诊手术和姑息手术中判别能力较差外，在其他手术中都具有较好的判别能力，在所有手术中预测的死亡率与实际死亡率接近（O：E值为0．91）；改良Cr-POSSUM除在姑息手术中有很好的判别能力外，在评价模型样本和急诊手术预测的死亡率高于实际死亡率，但仍在实际死亡率95％的可信区间内（0：E值为0．78）。两者的预测能力都好于POSSUM。结论POSSUM、P-POSSUM和Cr-POSSUM在中国结直肠癌手术中预测的病死率高于实际病死率。改良P-POSSUM和改良Cr-POSSUM可较准确地预测中国结直肠癌患者手术住院期间病死率。     

Validation study of postoperative liver failure and mortality risk scores after liver resection for perihilar cholangiocarcinoma

BackgroundSurgery for perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (PHCC) remains a challenging procedure with high morbidity and mortality. The Academic Medical Center (Amsterdam UMC) and Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center proposed a postoperative mortality risk score (POMRS) and post-hepatectomy liver failure score (PHLFS) to predict patient outcomes. This study aimed to validate the POMRS and PHLFS for PHCC patients at Hokkaido University.MethodsMedical records of 260 consecutive PHCC patients who had undergone major hepatectomy with extrahepatic bile duct resection without pancreaticoduodenectomy at Hokkaido University between March 2001 and November 2018 were evaluated to validate the PHLFS and POMRS.ResultsThe observed risks for PHLF were 13.7%, 24.5%, and 39.8% for the low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups, respectively, in the study cohort. A receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) analysis revealed that the PHLFS had moderate predictive value, with an analysis under the curve (AUC) value of 0.62. Mortality rates based on the POMRS were 1.7%, 5%, and 5.1% for the low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups, respectively. The ROC analysis demonstrated an AUC value of 0.58.ConclusionsThis external validation study showed that for PHLFS the threshold for discrimination in an Eastern cohort was reached (AUC >0.6), but it would require optimization of the model before use in clinical practice is acceptable. The POMRS were not applicable in the eastern cohort. Further external validation is recommended.     

Estimation of physiologic ability and surgical stress (E-PASS) as a new prediction scoring system for postoperative morbidity and mortality following elective gastrointestinal surgery

(Received for publication on Oct. 25, 1997; accepted on July 7, 1998)     

Accuracy of the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity score and the Nottingham risk score in hip fracture patients in Sweden — A prospective observational study

Background

Little is known about accuracy of common risk prediction scores in elderly patients suffering from hip fractures. The objective of this study was to investigate accuracy of the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) score, Portsmouth‐POSSUM (P‐POSSUM) score and the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) for prediction of mortality and morbidity in this patient group.

Methods

This was a prospective single centre observational study on 997 patients suffering out‐of‐hospital cervical, trochanteric or subtrochanteric fracture of the neck of the femur. Calibration and discrimination was assessed by calculating the ratio of observed to expected events (O:E) and areas under receiver operating characteristics curves (ROC).

Results

The 30‐day mortality was 6.2% and complications, as defined by POSSUM, occurred in 41% of the patients. Overall O:E ratios for POSSUM, P‐POSSUM and NHFS scores for 30‐day mortality were 0.90, 0.98, and 0.79 respectively. The models underestimated mortality in the lower risk bands and overestimated mortality in the higher risk bands. In contrast, POSSUM predicted morbidity well with O:E ratios close to unity in most risk bands. The areas under the ROC curves for the scoring systems was 0.60‐0.67.

Conclusion

The POSSUM score and NHFS show moderate calibration and poor discrimination in this cohort. The results suggest that mortality and morbidity in hip fracture patients are largely dependent on factors that are not included in these scores.     

Performance of risk prediction models for post-operative mortality in patients undergoing liver resection

BackgroundLiver resection is commonly performed for hepatic tumors, however preoperative risk stratification remains challenging. We evaluated the performance of contemporary prediction models for short-term mortality after liver resection in patients with and without cirrhosis.MethodsThis retrospective cohort study examined National Surgical Quality Improvement Program data. We included patients who underwent liver resections from 2014 to 2019. VOCAL-Penn, MELD, MELD-Na, ALBI, and Mayo risk scores were evaluated in terms of model discrimination and calibration for 30-day post-operative mortality.ResultsA total 15,198 patients underwent liver resection, of whom 249 (1.6%) experienced 30-day post-operative mortality. The VOCAL-Penn score had the highest discrimination (area under the ROC curve [AUC] 0.74) compared to all other models. The VOCAL-Penn score similarly outperformed other models in patients with (AUC 0.70) and without (AUC 0.74) cirrhosis.ConclusionThe VOCAL-Penn score demonstrated superior predictive performance for 30-day post-operative mortality after liver resection as compared to existing clinical standards.