Validation of the seventh edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer TNM staging system for gastric cancer

BACKGROUND:

The seventh edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) TNM classification for gastric cancer was published in 2010 and included major revisions. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the validity of the seventh edition TNM classification for gastric cancer based on an Asian population.

METHODS:

A total of 2916 gastric cancer patients who underwent R0 surgical resection from 1989 through 2008 in a single institute were included, and were analyzed according to the seventh edition of the TNM classification for validation.

RESULTS:

When adjusted using the seventh edition of the TNM classification, upstaging was observed in 771 patients (26.4%) and downstaging was observed in 178 patients (6.1%) compared with the sixth edition of the TNM classification. The relative risk (RR) of seventh edition pT classification was found to be increased with regular intensity compared with the sixth edition pT classification. The RR of seventh edition pN classification was found to be increased with irregular intensity compared with the sixth edition pN classification. In survival analysis, there were significant differences noted for each stage of disease, but only a marginal difference was demonstrated between stage IA and stage IB (P = .049). In the hybrid TNM classification, which combines the seventh edition pT classification and the sixth edition pN classification, both pT and pN classifications demonstrated a more ideal distribution of the RR, and 5‐year survival rates also showed a significant difference for each stage (P <.01).

CONCLUSIONS:

The seventh edition of the TNM classification was considered valid based on the results of the current study. However, the hybrid TNM classification, comprised of a combination of the seventh edition pT classification and sixth edition pN classification, should be considered for the next edition. Cancer 2011. © 2011 American Cancer Society.     

Development and validation of a Surveillance,Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-based prognostic nomogram for predicting survival in elderly patients with gastric cancer after surgery

BackgroundElderly gastric cancer (ELGC) remains one of the intensively investigated topics during the last decades. To establish a comprehensive nomogram for effective clinical practice and assessment is of significance. This study is designed to develop a prognostic nomogram for ELGC both in overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS).MethodsThe recruited cases were from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and input for the construction of nomogram.ResultsA total of 4,414 individuals were recruited for this study, of which 2,208 were randomly in training group and 2,206 were in validation group. In univariate analysis of OS, significant variables (P<0.05) included age, marital status, grade, American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage, bone/brain/liver/lung metastasis and tumor size. In univariate analysis of CSS, significant variables (P<0.05) included age, grade, AJCC TNM stage, bone/brain/liver/lung metastasis and tumor size. In multivariate analysis of OS, sex, age, race, grade, TNM stage, lung metastasis and tumor size were considered as the significant variables and subjected to the establishment of nomogram. In multivariable analysis of CSS, age, grade, TNM, tumor size were considered as the significant variables and input to the establishment of nomogram. Sex, age, race, grade, TNM stage, lung metastasis and tumor size were included for the establishment of nomogram in OS while age, grade, TNM, tumor size were included to the establishment of nomogram in CSS. C-index, decision curve analysis (DCA) and the area under the curve (AUC) showed distinct value of newly established nomogram models. Both OS and CSS nomograms showed higher statistic power over the AJCC stage.ConclusionsThis study established and validated novel nomogram models of OS and CSS for ELGC based on population dataset.     

Development and validation of prognostic nomogram based on log odds of positive lymph nodes for patients with gastric signet ring cell carcinoma

ObjectiveOur aims were to establish novel nomogram models, which directly targeted patients with signet ring cell carcinoma (SRC), for individualized prediction of overall survival (OS) rate and cancer-specific survival (CSS).MethodsWe selected 1,365 SRC patients diagnosed from 2010 to 2015 from Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database, and then randomly partitioned them into a training cohort and a validation cohort. Independent predicted indicators, which were identified by using univariate testing and multivariate analyses, were used to construct our prognostic nomogram models. Three methods, Harrell concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve and calibration curve, were used to assess the ability of discrimination and predictive accuracy. Integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), net reclassification improvement (NRI) and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to assess clinical utility of our nomogram models.ResultsSix independent predicted indicators, age, race, log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS), T stage, M stage and tumor size, were associated with OS rate. Nevertheless, only five independent predicted indicators were associated with CSS except race. The developed nomograms based on those independent predicted factors showed reliable discrimination. C-index of our nomogram for OS and CSS was 0.760 and 0.763, which were higher than American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 8th edition tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system (0.734 and 0.741, respectively). C-index of validation cohort for OS was 0.757 and for CSS was 0.773. The calibration curves also performed good consistency. IDI, NRI and DCA showed the nomograms for both OS and CSS had a comparable clinical utility than the TNM staging system.ConclusionsThe novel nomogram models based on LODDS provided satisfying predictive ability of SRC both in OS and CSS than AJCC 8th edition TNM staging system alone.     

TNM classification and the need for revision of pN3a breast cancer

BackgroundAccording to the seventh edition of tumour-node-metastasis (TNM) classification, pN3a status in breast cancer patients consists of presence of an infraclavicular lymph node metastasis (LNM) and/or presence of ≥10 axillary LNMs. The aim of this study was to determine whether prognosis of pN3a based on at least an infraclavicular LNM differs from ≥10 axillary LNMs.MethodsData were obtained from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. All patients were diagnosed between 2005 and 2008 with primary invasive epithelial breast cancer and pN2a or pN3a status as pathologic result. Patients with pN3a were subdivided in pN3a based on at least an infraclavicular LNM or ≥10 axillary LNMs. Disease-free survival (DFS) included any local, regional or contralateral recurrence, distant metastasis or death within 5 years. Kaplan–Meier curves provided information on 5-year DFS and 8-year overall survival (OS). In addition, Cox proportional hazards model was used to measure the effect of relevant clinicopathological variables on DFS and OS.ResultsA total of 3400 patients with pN2a and 1788 patients with pN3a were included. In 83 patients, pN3a was based on at least an infraclavicular LNM (4.6%) and in 1705 patients because of ≥10 axillary LNMs (95.4%). After multivariable analyses, DFS and OS were inferior in patients with pN3a based on ≥10 axillary LNMs compared to infraclavicular LNM (DFS 48.8% versus 63.8%, hazard ratio [HR] 1.59, p = 0.036; OS 46.6% versus 63.9%, HR 1.46, p = 0.042). Furthermore, pN2a and pN3a based on infraclavicular LNM had comparable DFS and OS.ConclusionPN3a status based on an at least an infraclavicular LNM is rare, yet its prognosis is superior to ≥10 axillary LNMs. Reclassification of infraclavicular LNM in the next TNM should therefore be considered into pN2a.     

The Potential Impact and Usability of the Eighth Edition TNM Staging Classification in Oral Cavity Cancer

AimsIn the current eighth edition head and neck TNM staging, extranodal extension (ENE) is an adverse feature in oral cavity squamous cell cancer (OSCC). The previous seventh edition N1 with ENE is now staged as N2a. Seventh edition N2+ with ENE is staged as N3b in the eighth edition. We evaluated its potential impact on patients treated with surgery and postoperative intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT).Materials and methodsOSCC patients treated with primary surgery and adjuvant (chemo)radiotherapy between January 2005 and December 2014 were reviewed. Cohorts with pathological node-negative (pN–), pathological node-positive without ENE (pN+_pENE–) and pathological node-positive with ENE (pN+_pENE+) diseases were compared for local control, regional control, distant control and overall survival. The pN+ cohorts were further stratified into seventh edition N-staging subgroups for outcomes comparison.ResultsIn total, 478 patients were evaluated: 173 pN–; 159 pN+_pENE–; 146 pN+_pENE+. Outcomes at 5 years were: local control was identical (78%) in all cohorts (P = 0.892), whereas regional control was 91%, 80% and 68%, respectively (P < 0.001). Distant control was 97%, 87%, 68% (P < 0.001) and overall survival was 75%, 53% and 39% (P < 0.001), respectively. Overall survival for N1 and N2a subgroups was not significantly different. In the seventh edition N2b subgroup of pENE– (n = 79) and pENE+ (n = 79) cohorts, overall survival was 67% and 37%, respectively. In the seventh edition N2c subgroups, overall survival for pENE– (n = 17) and pENE+ (n = 38) cohorts was 65% and 35% (P = 0.08), respectively. Overall, an additional 128 patients (42% pN+) were upstaged as N3b.ConclusionsWhen eighth edition staging was applied, stage migration across the N2–3 categories resulted in expected larger separations of overall survival by stage. Patients treated with primary radiation without surgical staging should have outcomes carefully monitored. Strategies to predict ENE preoperatively and trials to improve the outcomes of pENE+ patients should be explored.     

Cancer of the esophagus and esophagogastric junction

BACKGROUND:

Previous American Joint Committee on Cancer/International Union Against Cancer (AJCC/UICC) stage groupings for esophageal cancer have not been data driven or harmonized with stomach cancer. At the request of the AJCC, worldwide data from 3 continents were assembled to develop data‐driven, harmonized esophageal staging for the seventh edition of the AJCC/UICC cancer staging manuals.

METHODS:

All‐cause mortality among 4627 patients with esophageal and esophagogastric junction cancer who underwent surgery alone (no preoperative or postoperative adjuvant therapy) was analyzed by using novel random forest methodology to produce stage groups for which survival was monotonically decreasing, distinctive, and homogeneous.

RESULTS:

For lymph node‐negative pN0M0 cancers, risk‐adjusted 5‐year survival was dominated by pathologic tumor classification (pT) but was modulated by histopathologic cell type, histologic grade, and location. For lymph node‐positive, pN+M0 cancers, the number of cancer‐positive lymph nodes (a new pN classification) dominated survival. Resulting stage groupings departed from a simple, logical arrangement of TNM. Stage groupings for stage I and II adenocarcinoma were based on pT, pN, and histologic grade; and groupings for squamous cell carcinoma were based on pT, pN, histologic grade, and location. Stage III was similar for histopathologic cell types and was based only on pT and pN. Stage 0 and stage IV, by definition, were categorized as tumor in situ (Tis) (high‐grade dysplasia) and pM1, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS:

The prognosis for patients with esophageal and esophagogastric junction cancer depends on the complex interplay of TNM classifications as well as nonanatomic factors, including histopathologic cell type, histologic grade, and cancer location. These features were incorporated into a data‐driven staging of these cancers for the seventh edition of the AJCC/UICC cancer staging manuals. Cancer 2010. © 2010 American Cancer Society.     

Development and validation of a new clinical staging system to predict survival for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients: Application of the nomogram

IntroductionSurvival of patients with the same clinical stage varies widely and effective tools to evaluate the prognosis utilizing clinical staging information is lacking. This study aimed to develop a clinical nomogram for predicting survival of patients with Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma (ESCC).Materials and methodsOn the basis of data extracted from the SEER database (training cohort, n = 3375), we identified and integrated significant prognostic factors for nomogram development and internal validation. The model was then subjected to external validation with a separate dataset obtained from Jinling Hospital of Nanjing Medical University (validation cohort, n = 1187). The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were determined by concordance index (C-index), Akaike information criterion (AIC) and calibration curves. And risk group stratification was performed basing on the nomogram scores.ResultsOn multivariable analysis of the training cohort, seven independent prognostic factors were identified and included into the nomogram. Calibration curves presented good consistency between the nomogram prediction and actual observation for 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS. The AIC value of the nomogram was lower than that of the 8th edition American Joint Committee on Cancer TNM (AJCC) staging system, whereas the C-index of the nomogram was significantly higher than that of the AJCC staging system. The risk groups stratified by CART allowed significant distinction between survival curves within respective clinical TNM categories.ConclusionsThe risk stratification system presented better discriminative ability for survival prediction than current clinical staging system and might help clinicians in decision making.     

Prognostic value of modified Lauren classification in gastric cancer

BACKGROUNDIt remains controversial as to which pathological classification is most valuable in predicting the overall survival (OS) of patients with gastric cancer (GC).AIMTo assess the prognostic performances of three pathological classifications in GC and develop a novel prognostic nomogram for individually predicting OS.METHODSPatients were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the independent prognostic factors. Model discrimination and model fitting were evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curves and Akaike information criteria. Decision curve analysis was performed to assess clinical usefulness. The independent prognostic factors identified by multivariate analysis were further applied to develop a novel prognostic nomogram.RESULTSA total of 2718 eligible GC patients were identified. The modified Lauren classification was identified as one of the independent prognostic factors for OS. It showed superior model discriminative ability and model-fitting performance over the other pathological classifications, and similar results were obtained in various patient settings. In addition, it showed superior net benefits over the Lauren classification and tumor differentiation grade in predicting 3- and 5-year OS. A novel prognostic nomogram incorporating the modified Lauren classification showed superior model discriminative ability, model-fitting performance, and net benefits over the American Joint Committee on Cancer 8^th edition tumor-node-metastasis classification.CONCLUSIONThe modified Lauren classification shows superior net benefits over the Lauren classification and tumor differentiation grade in predicting OS. A novel prognostic nomogram incorporating the modified Lauren classification shows good model discriminative ability, model-fitting performance, and net benefits.     

Evaluation of the Seventh American Joint Committee on Cancer/International Union Against Cancer Classification of gastric adenocarcinoma in comparison with the sixth classification

BACKGROUND:

The seventh TNM staging system for gastric cancer of the American Joint Committee on Cancer/International Union Against Cancer (AJCC/UICC) had a more detailed classification than the sixth TNM staging system for both the tumor (T) and lymph nodes (N). The authors compared survival rates assessed by the seventh staging system with those by the sixth system.

METHODS:

The authors analyzed the prospectively collected database on patients with gastric cancer who underwent surgery at Seoul National University Hospital between 1986 and 2006, and calculated the survival rates of 9998 cases with primary cancer, R0 resection, and >14 retrieved lymph nodes.

RESULTS:

The 5‐year cumulative survival rates (5YSR) according to the seventh edition T or N classifications were significantly different. The 5YSR according to seventh edition of the TNM staging system were 95.1% (stage IA), 88.4% (stage IB), 84.0% (stage IIA), 71.7% (stage IIB), 58.4% (stage IIIA), 41.3% (stage IIIB), and 26.1% (stage IIIC), which were significantly different from each other. The 5YSR of the seventh edition T2 and T3 classifications had significant differences in patients with every N classification, and the 5YSR of seventh edition N1 and N2 classifications had significant differences in T2 patients, T3 patients, and T4 patients. Each stage in the sixth edition was divided into the seventh edition stage with different survival rates. In addition, the number of homogenous groupings in seventh edition TNM stages was increased from 1 to 2.

CONCLUSIONS:

The seventh system provided a more detailed classification of prognosis than the sixth system, especially between T2 and T3 tumors and N1 and N2 tumors, although further studies were found to be needed for the N3a and N3b classification. Cancer 2010. © 2010 American Cancer Society.     

Validation of the Stage Groupings in the Eighth Edition of the TNM Classification for Lung Cancer

IntroductionThe aim of this study was to validate stage groupings in the eighth edition of the TNM classification in an independent Chinese cohort.MethodsWe retrospectively analyzed a total of 3599 patients with pathological stage IA to IIIA (seventh edition of the TNM) NSCLC who underwent surgical treatment in two surgical centers in the People's Republic of China between 2005 and 2012. All patients were reclassified according to the eighth edition of the TNM classification. Survival was compared between adjacent stage groupings by using a log-rank test and a Cox regression model. R² was calculated to evaluate the discrimination of the two TNM stage classifications.ResultsThe median follow-up time was 48.7 months. According to the eighth edition of the TNM classification, the overall survival (OS) of adjacent stage groupings showed significant differences except for IA3 vs. IB. The eighth edition of the TNM classification yielded a slightly higher R² than the seventh edition (0.172 vs. 0.162).ConclusionsThis study provided an external validation of the stage groupings in the eighth edition of the TNM classification for lung cancer among surgically treated Chinese patients with NSCLC.     

External Validation of AJCC Eighth Edition of Non–small-cell Lung Cancer Staging Among African Americans

IntroductionThe American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) eighth staging classification system for non–small-cell lung cancer was based on data from a multinational study consisting of 94,708 patients. African Americans were not included in this large database.Materials and MethodsThe authors aimed to compare the performance of the AJCC eighth staging system with that of the seventh in predicting overall survival among African Americans utilizing the National Cancer Database. Cases with T- and M- categories were classified into 2 groups based on the AJCC seventh and eighth edition staging systems. Kaplan-Meier curves for overall survival were then constructed for each subgroup. Concordance index was computed using Uno’s methodology to assess the overall performance between the 2 staging systems in predicting the mortality. Time-dependent area under the curve was calculated at each follow-up event for the seventh and eighth edition clinical and pathologic staging using an inverse probability of censoring weighted methodology. A 2-sided P-value < .05 was considered to show statistical significance.ResultsThe database identified a total of 70,606 African American patients in the study period of 2004 through 2014. Area under the curve values were consistently higher for the eighth edition scheme compared with the seventh edition (concordance 0.630 vs. 0.624, respectively; P < .0001 for clinical staging scheme and 0.596 vs. 0.591, respectively; P = .01 for pathologic staging scheme).ConclusionThe AJCC eighth edition staging system showed better prognostic value in predicting overall survival when compared with the AJCC seventh edition staging scheme among African American patients with non–small-cell lung cancer.     

A novel lymph node staging system for gastric cancer including modified Union for cancer Control/American Joint Committee on cancer and Japanese Gastric Cancer Association criteria

BackgroundThe TNM system of the International Union for Cancer Control/American Joint Committee on Cancer (UICC/AJCC) and the Japanese Gastric Cancer Association (JGCA) systems are the most used lymph node (LN) staging systems in gastric cancer. This study estimated the influence of anatomic location-based node stations on survival and proposed a new staging method based on both the number and anatomical distribution of metastatic LNs (mLNs).MethodsStage I–III gastric cancer patients with radical gastrectomy were retrospectively evaluated. Overall survival (OS) was estimated in 1786 patients with UICC/AJCC stage N1–N3b disease and compared with estimates obtained using JGCA group 1–3 mLN staging.ResultsThe OS of UICC/AJCC stage N1–N3b patients with group 2 JGCA mLNs was significantly worse than that of patients with only group 1 mLNs. The OS of the patients with group 2 mLNs was similar to that of patients with group 1 mLNs but in the next more advanced UICC/AJCC-N stage. The OS of patients with group 3 mLNs was worse than that of patients with any UICC/AJCC-N stage and was similar to that of N3b patients with group 2 mLNs. A new pathological node (pN) staging classification was developed that advanced the N-staging of patients with group 2 mLNs. It was a better indicator of prognosis than the eighth UICC/AJCC-N and the thirteenth JGCA group staging systems.ConclusionsA simple, accurate pN staging system including both the number and location of mLNs had improved homogeneity, discriminatory ability, and gradient monotonicity.     

The superiority of the seventh edition of the TNM classification depends on the overall survival of the patient cohort

BACKGROUND:

The objective of this study was to investigate whether the seventh edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer/International Union Against Cancer TNM classification (TNM7) had superior discriminatory ability over the sixth edition of the TNM classification (TNM6) in patients with gastric cancer regardless of their country of origin.

METHODS:

In total, 538 patients from the Kanagawa Cancer Center Hospital (Yokohama, Japan) (KCCH) and 519 patients from the Leeds Teaching Hospitals National Health Service Trust (Leeds, United Kingdom) (LTHT) who underwent surgery for gastric cancer were selected. Overall survival was used for statistical analysis. Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated with disease stage as a continuous variable to evaluate the discriminatory ability of the TNM stage groups. The estimates of log HRs (logHRs) for the TNM6 and the TNM7 stage groups were compared.

RESULTS:

In the KCCH cohort, 82 patients (15%) were upstaged, and 26 patients (5%) were downstaged between TNM6 and TNM7 compared with 253 patients (49%) and 53 patients (10%), respectively, in the LTHT cohort. The logHRs for a 1‐stage increase within TNM6 and TNM7 were 1.06 and 1.16, respectively, in the KCCH cohort and 0.57 and 0.79, respectively, in the LTHT cohort. The differences in logHRs between TNM6 and TNM7 were significant in each cohort (KCCH: logHR, 0.11; P = .024; LTHT: logHR, 0.21; P = .0002) and between the 2 cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS:

TNM7 had superior discriminatory ability compared with TNM6 in both cohorts. The improved ability to discriminate patients with different survival probability when using TNM7 was greater in the LTHT cohort. The current findings indicated that the discriminatory ability of the TNM stage groups may depend on the baseline survival characteristics of the patient cohort. Cancer 2013. © 2013 American Cancer Society.     

Confirmation of the eighth edition of the AJCC/UICC TNM staging system for HPV-mediated oropharyngeal cancer in Japan

Background

Several studies have demonstrated that the seventh edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer/American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC/UICC) TNM staging system does not consistently distinguish between prognostic subgroups for human papillomavirus (HPV)-mediated oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC). The eighth edition of the AJCC/UICC TNM staging system came into effect for use with HPV-mediated OPSCC on or after 1 January 2017. This study confirms that the eighth edition of the AJCC/UICC TNM staging system for HPV-mediated OPSCC accurately reflects disease outcomes.

Patients and methods

We retrospectively analyzed 195 patients with OPSCC treated at Hokkaido University Hospital, Sapporo, Japan between 1998 and 2015. HPV status was evaluated by immunohistochemical analysis of p16.

Results

Of the 195 OPSCC patients evaluated, 111 (56.9%) were p16 positive and 84 (43.1%) were p16 negative. The 3-year overall survival rate (OS) was significantly lower in the p16-negative patients with stage III–IV in comparison with those with stage I–II (55.0 vs. 93.1%, respectively; p < 0.01). The 3-year OS did not differ significantly between stage I–II and stage III–IV in the p16-positive patients (86.7 vs 87.7%). According to the eighth edition of the AJCC/UICC TNM staging system, stage I–II and stage III can be differentiated on the basis of the 3-year OS in the p16-positive patients (90.9 vs 70.2%, respectively; p < 0.01).

Conclusions

The seventh edition of the AJCC/UICC TNM staging system is suitable for use with p16-negative patients; however, it does not effectively discriminate between p16-positive patients. Therefore, the eighth edition of the AJCC/UICC TNM staging system is more suitable for HPV-mediated OPSCC in Japan.

     

Validation study of the UICC TNM classification of malignant tumors,seventh edition,in breast cancer

Background

The TNM classification of the Unio Internationalis Contra Cancrum was revised for the seventh edition. The major change concerning breast cancer is a change in the stages for patients with T0 or T1N1miM0. In the present study, the seventh edition of the TNM classification was validated in breast cancer.

Methods

The stages of 416 breast cancer patients, treated at our hospital in 1996, were classified according to the TNM classification, sixth and seventh editions, and their prognoses were compared.

Results

Case distribution using the sixth edition was stage 0, 56 cases (13.5 %); stage I, 158 cases (38.0 %); stage II, 130 [A, 102; B, 28] cases (31.2 [A, 24.5; B, 6.7] %); and stage III, 72 [A, 31; B, 8; C, 33] cases (17.3 [A, 7.5; B, 1.9; C, 7.9] %). According to the seventh edition, the stages for 20 patients, accounting for 19.6 % of IIA cases according to the sixth edition, decreased from IIA to IB. The 10-year overall survivals were stage 0, 91.1 %; stage I, 88.6 %; stage II, 80.8 %; and stage III, 63.9 % according to the sixth edition; and stage 0, 91.1 %; stage I, 88.8 %; stage II, 79.1 %; and stage III, 63.9 % according to the seventh edition. Although no significant differences were seen among the survival rates for stages 0 to II according to the sixth edition, there was a significant difference between stage I and II according to the seventh edition (p = 0.026).

Conclusion

The latest revision of the TNM classification is appropriate for breast cancer from the perspective of prognosis.     

Prognostic nomogram for nonresectable pancreatic cancer treated with gemcitabine-based chemotherapy

Background:

A nomogram is progressively being used as a useful predictive tool for cancer prognosis. A nomogram to predict survival in nonresectable pancreatic cancer treated with chemotherapy has not been reported.

Methods:

Using prospectively collected data on patients with nonresectable pancreatic cancer receiving gemcitabine-based chemotherapy at five Japanese hospitals, we derived a predictive nomogram and internally validated it using a concordance index and calibration plots.

Results:

In total, 531 patients were included between June 2001 and February 2013. The American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) TNM stages were III and IV in 204 and 327 patients, respectively. The median survival time of the total cohort was 11.3 months. A nomogram was generated to predict survival probabilities at 6, 12, and 18 months and median survival time, based on the following six variables: age; sex; performance status; tumour size; regional lymph node metastasis; and distant metastasis. The concordance index of the present nomogram was higher than that of the AJCC TNM staging system at 12 months (0.686 vs 0.612). The calibration plots demonstrated good fitness of the nomogram for survival prediction.

Conclusions:

The present nomogram can provide valuable information for tailored decision-making early after the diagnosis of nonresectable pancreatic cancer.     

Validation of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 8th edition stage system for gastric cancer patients: a population-based analysis

Background

Our aim was to validate the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 8th edition stage system for gastric cancer in the Western world and to compare several modifications between the 7th and 8th edition systems.

Methods

Eligible patients having undergone surgical resection of gastric cancer during 2004–2011 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were included in the current study. Survival differences were assessed by Kaplan–Meier curve and log-rank tests. The discriminative power of the AJCC 8th and 7th editions was compared by Harrell’s concordance index (c-index).

Results

Patients with pN3a and pN3b presented distinct survival outcomes, especially for cases in which more than 15 lymph nodes were examined. The overall (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) c-indices for the 8th edition were largely comparable with c-indices for the 7th edition throughout the cohort. Notably, the new edition improved the power of discrimination slightly in OS and CSS (c-indices: 0.717, 0.744) compared with the 7th edition (c-indices: 0.712, 0.739) for patients for whom 15 or more lymph nodes were examined. The analysis of stage migration in the new edition revealed nonhomogeneous survival outcomes in stages IIIB and IIIC.

Conclusion

The AJCC 8th stage system for gastric cancer performs as well as the AJCC 7th edition in the United States (USA). Importantly, when more than 15 lymph nodes are examined, the discriminatory performance of the new edition is improved.

     

Development and Validation of a Nomogram Prognostic Model for SCLC Patients

Introduction

SCLC accounts for almost 15% of lung cancer cases in the United States. Nomogram prognostic models could greatly facilitate risk stratification and treatment planning, as well as more refined enrollment criteria for clinical trials. We developed and validated a new nomogram prognostic model for SCLC patients using a large SCLC patient cohort from the National Cancer Database (NCDB).

Lymph Node Ratio and pN Staging Show Different Superiority As Prognostic Predictors Depending on the Number of Lymph Nodes Dissected in Chinese Patients With Luminal A Breast Cancer

BackgroundThe lymph node ratio (LNR) classification has shown superiority to pN staging (the number of positive lymph nodes) in breast cancers, but it has not been examined according to whether sufficient lymph nodes have been dissected.MethodsAll Chinese patients with luminal A breast cancer with positive lymph nodes seen at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center between 1995 and 2009 were enrolled. Disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were the endpoints, and the patients were further classified into 2 groups according to whether ≤ 10 or > 10 lymph nodes were dissected.ResultsFor the whole group, the OS curves of the pN stages overlapped, whereas they were separated in the LNR survival curves. LNR was an independent prognostic factor for OS and DFS, whereas the pN stage was not. In the ≤ 10 lymph nodes dissected group, both OS and DFS curves were clearly separated in the pN staging but overlapped in the LNR classification. In the > 10 lymph nodes dissected group, LNR showed no overlap in the OS curves and was an independent prognostic factor of OS and DFS when compared with pN staging.ConclusionIn Chinese patients with luminal A breast cancer, LNR classification and the pN stage show different superiority as prognostic predictors according to whether > 10 or < 10 lymph nodes are dissected.     

Tumor–ratio–metastasis staging system as an alternative to the 7th edition UICC TNM system in gastric cancer after D2 resection—results of a single-institution study of 1343 Chinese patients

BackgroundIn this study, we assessed the prognostic value of the lymph node ratio (LNR), established a hypothetical tumor–ratio–metastasis (TRM) staging system and compared it with the 7th edition International Union Against Cancer pathological N (pN) and tumor–node–metastasis (TNM) system.Patients and methodsA total of 1343 gastric cancer patients undergoing D2 resection were staged using the TRM staging system and the 7th edition TNM system. Optimal cut points of LNR were calculated using X-tile software and validated by bootstrapping. Homogeneity, discriminatory ability, and monotonicity of gradients of the TRM and TNM systems were compared using linear trend χ², likelihood ratio χ² statistics, and Akaike information criterion (AIC) calculations.ResultsOptimal cut points classified patients into LNR0 (0%), LNR1 (1%–30%), LNR2 (31%–60%), and LNR3 (61%–100%) groups. In univariate, multivariate and stratified analyses, the LNR staging showed superiority to the 7th edition pN staging. The TRM staging system had higher linear trend and likelihood ratio χ² scores and smaller AIC values compared with those for the TNM system, which represented the optimum prognostic stratification.ConclusionsThe novel TRM staging system predicts survival of gastric cancer more accurately than the 7th edition TNM system. It may be considered as an alternative to TNM system.