Prognostic scoring in ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm: a prospective evaluation

BACKGROUND: Prospective validation of prognostic scoring systems for ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is lacking. This study assesses the validity of three established risk scores and a new prognostic index. METHOD: Patients admitted with ruptured AAA during a 26-month period (August 2002-December 2004) were recruited prospectively. The Glasgow Aneurysm Score (GAS), Hardman Index, Physiological and Operative Severity Score for enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) scores, and the Edinburgh Ruptured Aneurysm Score (ERAS) were recorded and related to outcome. RESULTS: During the study period, 111 patients were admitted with ruptured AAA. Of these, 84 (76%) underwent attempted operative repair and were included in the study; 37 (44%) died after operation. The GAS, Hardman Index, and the ERAS were statistically related to mortality. However, analysis by receiver-operator characteristic curve revealed the ERAS to have an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.72 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.61-0.83). The vascular (V)-POSSUM and ruptured AAA (RAAA)-POSSUM models had an AUC of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.59-0.82). The Hardman Index and GAS had an AUC of 0.69 (95% CI, 0.57-0.80) and 0.64 (95% CI, 0.52-0.76), respectively. Although the V-POSSUM equation predicted mortality effectively (P = .086), the RAAA-POSSUM derivative demonstrated a significant lack of fit (P = .009). CONCLUSION: Prospective validation shows that the Hardman Index, GAS, and V-POSSUM and RAAA-POSSUM scores do not perform well as predictors for death after ruptured AAA. The ERAS accurately stratifies perioperative risk but requires further validation.     

Outcome of Patients with Ruptured Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm after Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation

Purpose : Ruptured aneurysm of the abdominal aorta (RAAA) is a condition associated with high mortality rate. If Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (CPR) is required, outcome is considered even worse. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of CPR on 30-day mortality of RAAA patients. Furthermore the Hardman index was evaluated. Methods : 109 patients with RAAA during a 5 year period (1001–1005) were analysed retrospectively. 30-day mortality, the presence of CPR and Hardman risk factors were recorded. The presence of CPR and the Hardman index were related to clinical outcome.

Results : 104 patients were included in our analysis. Eighteen patients received CPR. Overall 30-day mortality was 40%. Patients receiving CPR had a higher mortality rate than patients who did not (89% vs. 30%, p < 0.0001). Patients receiving CPR prior to surgery had a mortality rate of 100% (n = 11). In patients with a Hardman Index of < 1, 1 and > 3 the 30-day mortality was respectively 15%, 47% and 81%.

Conclusion : Requirement of CPR has a detrimental effect on RAAA-patient outcome. Patients receiving CPR prior to surgery have no survival chance. We advocate that surgery in these patients should not be undertaken. Hardman Index has a predictive value concerning 30-day mortality.     

Risk-scoring methods in predicting the immediate outcome after emergency open repair of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm

BACKGROUND: Rupture of an abdominal aortic aneurysm (RAAA) is associated with a risk of death approaching 80%. Prediction of immediate postoperative death in this condition assumes obvious relevance because it may be helpful in preoperative risk stratification. METHODS: One hundred fourteen patients underwent emergency open repair of RAAA. Data were retrospectively collected, and preoperative risk assessment was done according to the Glasgow aneurysm score, the Hardman index, and the Chen calculated risk. RESULTS: Fifty-one patients (44.7%) died during the immediate postoperative period. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve for the Glasgow aneurysm score, the Hardman index, and the Chen calculated risk was 0.906, 0.834, and 0.672, respectively. The mortality rate among patients with a Glasgow aneurysm score >85 was 88.9%, whereas in those with a lower score it was 15.9% (P < .0001). The mortality rate among patients with a Hardman index > or =2 was 81.1%, whereas it was 27.3% in those with a lower score (P < .0001). The mortality rate in patients with a Chen calculated mortality risk >37% was 62.0%, whereas it was 31.3% in those with a calculated risk < or =37% (P = .001). CONCLUSIONS: The present study showed that the Glasgow aneurysm score and, to a somewhat lower extent, the Hardman score are valuable predictors of immediate postoperative death after emergency open repair of RAAA.     

Comparison of the possum, P-POSSUM and Cr-POSSUM scoring systems as predictors of postoperative mortality in patients undergoing major colorectal surgery

BACKGROUND: Physiologic and operative severity score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity (POSSUM), 'Portsmouth'-physiologic and operative severity score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity (P-POSSUM) and 'Colorectal'-physiologic and operative severity score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity (Cr-POSSUM) are three related scoring systems, which uses individual patient parameters to predict postoperative mortality. POSSUM overpredicts mortality in low-risk patients and underpredicts mortality in elderly and emergency patients. P-POSSUM was developed to compensate for these weaknesses. Cr-POSSUM was developed specifically for colorectal surgery. We aim to establish which of these scoring systems would be most useful in an Australasian context. METHODS: Data were collected for 308 patients and predicted mortality risk values were generated using each of the three systems. The Mann-Whitney U-test was then carried out on the scores for each system. Receiver-operator characteristic curves were designed to determine the relative accuracy of each approach at discriminating between death and survival. RESULTS: All three POSSUM scoring systems showed a statistically significant ability to predict postoperative mortality. Additionally, in each system there was a significant difference in the raw physiologic and operative severity scores between survivors and those who died. A risk-stratification model was applied to each set of data, showing a correlation between an increase in risk and an increase in mortality rate. Finally, the receiver-operator characteristic curves generated showed that in this study group POSSUM, P-POSSUM and Cr-POSSUM were all satisfactory predictive tools although the latter tended to be relatively less accurate. CONCLUSION: Physiologic and operative severity score for the enumeration of mortality and morbidity, P-POSSUM and Cr-POSSUM are all reliable predictors of postoperative mortality in the Australasian context; although there was a trend towards POSSUM and P-POSSUM being better predictors than Cr-POSSUM. However, Cr-POSSUM requires fewer individual patient parameters to be calculated and is thus easier to generate. An ideal preoperative scoring system remains to be developed for predicting mortality in patients undergoing colorectal surgery.     

Risk-adjusted analysis of early mortality after ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm repair

PURPOSE: Ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms (RAAAs) continue to result in early mortality in up to 50% of patients. Additionally, it remains difficult to compare outcomes given the variability in patient comorbidities and presentation. The purpose of this study was to describe an instrument that permits the prospective analysis of outcomes after RAAA repair while adjusting for the variability in preoperative risk. METHODS: Consecutive patients undergoing attempted open RAAA repair over a 5-year period (1999 to 2003) at our center were reviewed. Thirty-day or in-hospital mortality was the main outcome variable. Preoperative mortality risk was estimated for each patient by using a validated modification of the POSSUM scoring system (V-POSSUM). A risk-adjusted cumulative sum method (RA-CUSUM) was used to compare observed versus predicted outcomes by assigning a risk-adjusted score, based on log-likelihood ratios, to each patient. These scores were sequentially plotted with preset control limits to allow for "signaling" when results were substantially different from expected (doubling or halving of odds ratios). RESULTS: A total of 136 patients were reviewed, with an early mortality rate of 45.6%. V-POSSUM scores were accurate in predicting mortality for the entire cohort, with an observed-to-predicted mortality ratio of 0.92 (P = .80). Each patient's risk-adjusted score was plotted sequentially. In one segment of the resulting plot, the graph adopted a negative slope and crossed the lower control limit, indicating improved results compared with predicted. CONCLUSIONS: V-POSSUM scores in this series accurately predicted early mortality after RAAA surgery. The RA-CUSUM method allows for the prospective evaluation of outcomes, while taking into account patient variability. In the current study, this resulted in the identification of a series of patients who had improved outcomes compared with predicted.     

Prospective comparison of POSSUM and P-POSSUM with clinical assessment of mortality following emergency surgery

BACKGROUND: Tools to accurately estimate the risk of death following emergency surgery are useful adjuncts to informed consent and clinical decisions. This prospective study compared the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) and Portsmouth POSSUM (P-POSSUM) scoring systems with clinical judgement in predicting mortality from emergency surgery. METHODS: Data were collected prospectively from 163 patients. Details of the physiological and operative severity scores were recorded for POSSUM and P-POSSUM. The estimates of both the surgeon and anaesthetist for 30-day and in-hospital mortality were also recorded pre-operatively. The accuracies of the four predictions were then compared with actual mortalities using linear and exponential analysis and receiver operator characteristics (ROC). RESULTS: P-POSSUM gave the most accurate prediction of 30-day mortality using linear analysis [observed to expected ratio (O : E) = 1.0]. POSSUM gave the most accurate prediction using exponential analysis (O : E = 1.15). Clinical judgement of mortality from both operating surgeons and anaesthetists compared favourably with the scoring systems for 30-day mortality (O : E = 0.83 and O : E = 0.93, respectively). ROC analyses showed both clinical judgement and the POSSUM scores to be good predictors of 30-day mortality with area under the curve values (AUC) of 0.903, 0.907, 0.946 and 0.940 for surgeons, anaesthetists, POSSUM and P-POSSUM respectively. CONCLUSIONS: POSSUM and P-POSSUM appear to be useful indicators for the prediction of mortality. Clinical judgement compares strongly with scoring systems in predicting post-operative mortality, but may underestimate mortality in very high-risk patients with more than 90% mortality.     

Validation of risk assessment scoring systems for an audit of elective surgery for gastrointestinal cancer in elderly patients: an audit

The goal of this study was to validate the usefulness of risk assessment scoring systems for a surgical audit in elective digestive surgery for elderly patients. The validated scoring systems used were the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) and the Portsmouth predictor equation for mortality (P-POSSUM). This study involved 153 consecutive patients aged 75 years and older who underwent elective gastric or colorectal surgery between July 2004 and June 2006. A retrospective analysis was performed on data collected prior to each surgery. The predicted mortality and morbidity risks were calculated using each of the scoring systems and were used to obtain the observed/predicted (O/E) mortality and morbidity ratios. New logistic regression equations for morbidity and mortality were then calculated using the scores from the POSSUM system and applied retrospectively. The O/E ratio for morbidity obtained from POSSUM score was 0.23. The O/E ratios for mortality from the POSSUM score and the P-POSSUM were 0.15 and 0.38, respectively. Utilizing the new equations using scores from the POSSUM, the O/E ratio increased to 0.88. Both the POSSUM and P-POSSUM over-predicted the morbidity and mortality in elective gastrointestinal surgery for malignant tumors in elderly patients. However, if a surgical unit makes appropriate calculations using its own patient series and updates these equations, the POSSUM system can be useful in the risk assessment for surgery in elderly patients.     

Evaluation of POSSUM and P-POSSUM scoring systems in patients undergoing colorectal surgery

BACKGROUND: The Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) and Portsmouth POSSUM (P-POSSUM) equations were derived from a heterogeneous general surgical population and have been used successfully as audit tools to provide risk-adjusted operative mortality rates. Their applicability to high-risk emergency colorectal operations has not been established. METHODS: POSSUM variables were recorded for 1017 patients undergoing major elective (n = 804) or emergency (n = 213) colorectal surgery in ten hospitals. Subgroup analysis was performed to investigate the predictive capability of POSSUM and P-POSSUM in emergency and elective surgery and in patients in different age groups. RESULTS: The overall operative mortality rate was 7.5 per cent (POSSUM-estimated mortality rate 8.2 per cent; P-POSSUM-estimated mortality rate 7.1 per cent). In-hospital deaths increased exponentially with age. Both scoring systems overpredicted mortality in young patients and underpredicted mortality in the elderly (P < 0.001). Death was underpredicted by both systems for emergency cases, significantly so at a simulated emergency caseload of 47.9 per cent (P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: There is a lack of calibration of POSSUM and P-POSSUM systems at the extremes of age and high emergency workload. This has important implication in clinical practice, as consultants with a high emergency workload may seem to underperform when these scoring systems are applied. Recalibration or remodelling strategies may facilitate the application of POSSUM-based systems in colorectal surgery.     

Outcome of elective primary surgery for diverticular disease of the sigmoid colon: a risk analysis based on the POSSUM scoring system

BACKGROUND: The outcome of surgery for diverticular disease of the sigmoid colon remains largely unclear. A comparison of studies is hardly possible because risk factors for diverticular disease severity and patient-related risk factors are lacking. The purpose of this study was to define morbidity and mortality of primary surgery for nonacute complications of diverticular disease of the sigmoid colon and to identify the risk factors that predict a higher morbidity and mortality. METHODS: Patients who underwent elective surgery for complications of diverticular disease of the sigmoid colon (n = 149) were identified in a prospective computerized morbidity and mortality registration. In all patients, the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) was calculated, as were the morbidity and mortality rates. Factors predicting postoperative morbidity and mortality were identified. To audit mortality figures, a POSSUM based scoring system is introduced. RESULTS: The mortality rate was 4.7% and morbidity rate was 53.7%. Significantly higher morbidity rates were correlated with a higher physiological POSSUM score (P = 0.010). Non-survivors were older (P = 0.029) and also had a higher physiological POSSUM score (P < 0.001) and operation severity POSSUM score (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The morbidity and mortality rates of surgery for nonacute complications of diverticular disease of the sigmoid colon are considerable. To a large extent, mortality and morbidity are driven by patient- and disease-related factors, as expressed by elevated physiological severity and operative severity scores and failures of peri-operative management in most deceased patients.     

Impact of delay on survival in patients with ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm

Rupture of the abdominal aortic aneurysm (RAAA) is a common surgical emergency. Surgical treatment of this condition carries a high morbidity and mortality rate. For successful outcome, an early diagnosis and prompt treatment are essential. However, recently, some centers have reported better results in patients whose surgery had been delayed because of interhospital transfer. Delay in treatment sometimes occurs as patients are transferred from one institution to another where specialized vascular care is available. This retrospective study sought to determine the effect of delay in treatment on the mortality of patients with RAAA repair.The time from arrival at the emergency room to surgery and operative time were obtained from the case notes of 45 consecutive patients with RAAA. Patients' physiology scores on admission were calculated using V-POSSUM for the RAAA model.Thirty-five patients were diagnosed with RAAA in the emergency room and were transferred to surgery. These patients were divided into two groups: patients who had surgery within 1 hour (n = 23) and those in whom surgery was delayed for up to 4 hours (n = 12).There was no significant difference in physiology score between the two groups (p = .12). The time to surgery and operative time with death as the outcome were plotted on a logistic regression model that showed that the delay in surgical treatment increases the mortality rate following RAAA repair (p = .041). Furthermore, a long operative time was associated with a higher surgical mortality rate (p = .029).Delay to surgery and a long operation increase the mortality rate following RAAA repair. However, delay to surgery alone did not influence the mortality rate.     

Prediction of outcome after abdominal aortic aneurysm rupture

BACKGROUND: Most vascular surgeons practice a selective policy of operative intervention for patients with ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). The evidence on which to justify operative selection remains uncertain. This review examines the prediction of outcome after attempted open repair of ruptured AAA. METHODS: The Medline and EMBASE databases and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews were searched for clinical studies relating to the prediction of outcome after ruptured AAA. Reference lists of relevant articles were also reviewed. RESULTS: The last 20 years has seen >60 publications considering variables predictive of outcome after AAA rupture. Four predictive scoring systems are reported: Hardman Index, Glasgow Aneurysm Score, Physiological and Operative Severity Score for Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM), and the Vancouver Scoring System. No scoring system has been shown to have consistent or absolute validity. Of the remaining data, there are no individual or combination of variables that can accurately and consistently predict outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Little robust evidence is available on which to base preoperative outcome prediction in patients with ruptured AAA. Experienced clinical judgement will remain of foremost importance in the selection of patients for ruptured AAA repair.     

Application of the POSSUM System in Bariatric Surgery

Background: The POSSUM system has been devised for physiologic and operative scoring. The scoring system produced assessment for morbidity and mortality rates, which did not significantly differ from observed rates. The authors have applied this system to bariatric surgery. Patients and Methods: 20 patients were scored by the POSSUM system. All underwent elective bariatric surgery during 1997. All patients were scored at the time of surgery with the physiologic score (FIS) and at discharge with the operative severity score (IQ). The FIS score included age; cardiac signs; chest radiograph; respiratory history; blood pressure; pulse; Glasgow coma score; determinations of hemoglobin, leukocyte, urea, sodium, and potassium levels; and electrocardiogram. The IQ score included multiple procedures, total blood loss, peritoneal soiling, presence of malignancy, and mode of surgery. Results: The mean POSSUM score was 23.9. The mean FIS was 13.95 (12-22), and the mean IQ was 9.4 (7-16). The distribution of patients was performed for BMI. The group with BMI 35-45 (n = 4 patients) had a mean POSSUM score of 22.75, a mean FIS of 13.75, and a mean IQ of 9.0. The group with BMI >45 (n = 16 patients) had a mean POSSUM score of 24.18, a mean FIS of 14.62, and a mean IQ of 9.5. The morbidities were gastric fistula with peritonitis and deep venous thrombosis. The two complications had similar POSSUM scores with different BMIs. No mortality was observed. Conclusions: According to this experience, the POSSUM scoring system appears to provide an indicator of minor risk of morbidity and mortality in bariatric surgery with vertical banded gastroplasty.     

Evaluation of POSSUM and P-POSSUM scoring systems for predicting the mortality in elective neurosurgical patients

A simple way of evaluating surgical outcomes is to compare mortality and morbidity. Such comparisons may be misleading without a proper case mix. The POSSUM scoring system was developed to overcome this problem. The score can be used to derive predictive mortality and morbidity for surgical procedures. POSSUM and a modified version P-POSSUM have been evaluated in various groups of surgical patients for the accuracy of predicting mortality. These scoring systems have not been evaluated in neurosurgical patients. Thus, we tried to evaluate the usefulness of POSSUM and P-POSSUM scoring systems in neurosurgical patients in predicting in-hospital mortality. POSSUM physiological and operative variables were collected from all neurosurgical patients undergoing elective craniotomy, from April 2005 to Feb 2006. In-hospital mortality was obtained from the hospital mortality register. The physiological score, operative score, POSSUM predicted mortality rate and P-POSSUM predicted mortality rate were calculated using a calculator. The observed number of deaths was compared against the predicted deaths. A total of 285 patients with a mean age of 38 +/- 15 years were studied. Overall observed mortality was nine patients (3.16%). The mortality predicted by the P-POSSUM model was also nine patients (3.16%). Mortality predicted by POSSUM was poor with predicted deaths in 31 patients (11%). The difference between observed and predicted deaths at different risk levels was not significant with P-POSSUM (p = 0.424) and was significantly different with POSSUM score (p < 0.001). P-POSSUM scoring system was highly accurate in predicting the overall mortality in neurosurgical patients. In contrast, POSSUM score was not useful for prediction of mortality.     

Predicting postoperative morbidity by clinical assessment

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to determine the accuracy of prediction of the surgeon's 'gut-feeling' in estimating postoperative outcome. METHODS: A prospective series of 1077 consecutive patients undergoing major hepatobiliary or gastrointestinal surgery were studied. Patients having elective (n = 827) and emergency (n = 250) procedures were included. The surgeon predicted the development of postoperative complications immediately after completion of surgery on a scale from 0 to 100 percent. These predictions were compared with the actual outcome and with predictions made using the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM). The Portsmouth predictor equation (P-POSSUM) was applied for the estimation of mortality. RESULTS: The observed morbidity and mortality rates were 29.5 and 3.4 percent respectively. POSSUM predicted a morbidity rate of 46.4 percent and P-POSSUM a mortality rate of 6.9 percent. The surgeon's gut-feeling was more accurate in the prediction of morbidity at 32.1 percent. On the basis of gut-feeling, surgeons overpredicted morbidity in elective surgery, but underestimated the risk of complications in the emergency setting. The (P)-POSSUM scoring system overpredicted morbidity and mortality for elective and emergency operations. CONCLUSION: The surgeon's gut-feeling is a good predictor of postoperative outcome, especially after elective surgery. (P)-POSSUM overpredicted morbidity and mortality in this series of major gastrointestinal and hepatobiliary operations.     

Do Scoring Systems Help in Predicting Survival Following Ruptured Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Surgery?

INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study was to assess the value of the Hardman Index and the Glasgow Aneurysm Score in predicting postoperative mortality in patients with ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (rAAA), and to assess the correlation between the two.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Patients admitted with rAAA were identified from a hospital database. Hospital records were reviewed and a retrospective Hardman Index and Glasgow Aneurysm Score was calculated. Poor postoperative prognosis was considered at a Glasgow Aneurysm Score > 95 or a Hardman Index ≥ 3.

RESULTS

A total of 96 patients with a median age of 77.5 years (interquartile range, 71–83 years) and a male:female ratio of 2:1 were identified. Of these, 37 patients were not offered surgery and this was associated with 100% mortality. Of the 59 operated patients, 36 (61%) patients died postoperatively. Operated patients had a median Glasgow Aneurysm Score of 91 (interquartile range, 77–101) and a Hardman Index of 2 (interquartile range, 1–2). In this group, a Glasgow Aneurysm Score > 95 or a Hardman Index ≥ 3 was not associated with mortality (P = 0.10 and P = 0.79, respectively). Correlation between the scoring systems was poor (+0.42 τ_b).

CONCLUSIONS

The scoring systems assessed did not help predict the outcome of rAAA surgery, and correlated poorly with each other. They do not aid clinical judgement.     

Mortality after acute surgery for complications of diverticular disease of the sigmoid colon is almost exclusively due to patient related factors

OBJECTIVE: Auditing the outcome of surgery for complicated diverticulitis of the sigmoid colon is difficult. A comparison of studies is hardly possible because risk factors both in terms of the severity of diverticulitis and patient-related risk factors are neither well described nor standardized. The purpose of this study was to define morbidity and mortality of primary surgery for acute complications of diverticular disease of the sigmoid colon and to identify the relation between risk factors and morbidity and mortality. METHODS: In a prospective computerized morbidity and mortality registration from 1990 to 2002, 114 patients, who underwent surgery on an acute or urgent base for acute complications of diverticular disease of the sigmoid colon, were identified. In all patients the POSSUM score was calculated. To audit mortality rates a POSSUM based scoring system was introduced. RESULTS: Mortality was 16.7%, and morbidity 71.1%. Higher morbidity rates were significantly related to a higher POSSUM physiological score (P = 0.012) and to older age (P < 0.001). Higher mortality rates also were significantly related to a higher POSSUM physiological score (P < 0.001) and older age (P = 0.003). Patients who died had significantly more sepsis (P < 0.001), multiple organ failure (P = 0.027), cardiac (P < 0.001) and pulmonary (P = 0.013) complications. Gender, operation indication and type of neither surgery nor surgeon had a significant relation with morbidity or mortality. CONCLUSION: Surgery for acute complications of diverticular disease of the sigmoid colon carries a high morbidity rate and a substantial mortality rate. The majority of deceased patients had severe comorbidity. Post-operative mortality and morbidity are to a large extent driven by patient related factors. Elevated physiological severity scores and a lack of peri-operative management failures express this in the majority of deceased patients.     

Ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm--outcome in a community teaching hospital intensive care unit.

Ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (RAAA) is a surgical emergency associated with a high mortality often requiring postoperative intensive care. Our objectives were to assess the outcome of RAAA management in a nontertiary community hospital intensive care unit (ICU) and to compare this with historical data from tertiary hospitals. We also sought to identify variables related to outcome and evaluate the potential of an organ failure score to identify patients at increased risk of death. The study was a retrospective chart review of patients with RAAA over 11 years (1986-1996 inclusive) at Manly District Hospital, a 210 bed community teaching hospital with eight intensive care beds. Forty patients were identified in the study period as having been admitted to ICU after RAAA surgery. There was an overall hospital mortality rate of 47.5% and intensive care mortality rate of 42.5% for successfully operated RAAA. Five variables were significantly different between survivors and non-survivors. These were age, total amount of blood products required, duration of operation, development of hypotension (systolic blood pressure < 90 mmHg) in ICU postoperatively, and APACHE II score at Day 1 ICU. A trend was also found between mortality rate and the number of failed systems after 48 hours intensive care stay. Mortality for a patient with zero failed systems was 38%, one failed system 42%, two 58% and three 67%. Based on these results, management of RAAA in a non-tertiary setting appears appropriate with postoperative care occurring in an ICU where there is adequate equipment and medical and nursing staff experienced in the care of complex critical illness.     

POSSUM models in open abdominal aortic aneurysm surgery.

OBJECTIVES: This study evaluated the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM), Portsmouth (P) POSSUM and Vascular (V) POSSUM. The primary aim was to assess the validity of these scoring systems in a population of patients undergoing elective and emergency open AAA repair. The secondary intention was in the event that these equations did not fit all patients with an aneurysm; a new model would be developed and tested using logistic regression from the local data (Cambridge POSSUM). METHODS: POSSUM data items were collected prospectively in a group of 452 patients undergoing elective and emergency open AAA repair over an eight-year period. The operative mortality rates were compared with those predicted by POSSUM, P-POSSUM, V-POSSUM and Cambridge POSSUM. RESULTS: All models except V-POSSUM (physiology only) showed significant lack of fit when predicting mortality after open AAA surgery. It was found that the locally generated single unified model (Cambridge POSSUM) could successfully describe both elective and ruptured AAA mortality with good discrimination (chi(2)=9.24, 7 d.f., p=0.236, c-index=0.880). CONCLUSIONS: POSSUM, V-POSSUM and P-POSSUM may not be robust tools for comparing mortality between populations undergoing elective and emergency open AAA repair as once thought. The development and successful validation of Cambridge POSSUM provides a unified model to describe both elective and emergency AAAs together and should be validated in other geographical settings.     

Estimation of mortality and morbidity risk in vascular surgery using POSSUM and the Portsmouth predictor equation

BACKGROUND: The Physiological and Operative Severity Score for enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) is a simple scoring system previously validated in general surgical patients which enables estimation of the risk of complications and death after operation. The Portsmouth predictor equation (P-POSSUM) is a modification that may result in more accurate prediction of death than POSSUM. The aim of this study was to test the validity of POSSUM and P-POSSUM in patients undergoing major arterial surgery in a specialist unit. METHODS: Physiological and operative severity scores in 221 patients undergoing elective and emergency arterial surgery in a pure vascular practice under a single consultant were recorded prospectively. Observed morbidity and mortality rates were compared with the rates predicted by POSSUM and P-POSSUM using a linear method of analysis. RESULTS: The POSSUM equation overestimated deaths with this analysis but the mortality rate estimated by P-POSSUM was not significantly different from the observed death rate. The risk of morbidity predicted by POSSUM was not significantly different from the observed complication rate. CONCLUSION: The POSSUM methodology combined with the P-POSSUM adjustment for death allows satisfactory prediction of mortality and morbidity rates in patients undergoing vascular surgery.     

Factors predicting mortality in emergency abdominal surgery in the elderly

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate clinical features of abdominal emergency surgery in elderly patients, and to determine factors predicting mortality in these patients. METHODS: The study population included 94 patients aged 80 years or older who underwent emergency surgery for acute abdominal diseases between 2000 and 2010. Thirty-six patients (38.3%) were male and fifty-eight patients (61.7%) were female (mean age, 85.6 years). Main outcome measures included background of the patient's physical condition (concomitant medical disease, and performance status), cause of disease, morbidity and mortality, and disease scoring system (APACHE II, and POSSUM). Prognostic factors affecting mortality of the patient were also evaluated by univariate analysis using Fisher's exact test and Mann- Whitney U-test, and by multivariate analysis using multiple logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Of the 94 patients, 71 (75.5%) had a co-existing medical disease; most patients had hypertension (46.8%). The most frequent surgical indications were acute cholecystitis in 23 patients (24.5%), followed by intestinal obstruction in 18 patients (19.1%). Forty-one patients (43.6%) had complications during hospital stay; the most frequent were surgical site infection (SSI) in 21 patients (22.3%) and pneumonia in 12 patients (12.8%). Fifteen patients died (overall mortality, 16%) within 1 month after operation. The most common causes of death were sepsis related to pan-peritonitis in 5 patients (5.3%), and pneumonia in 4 patients (4.3%). Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that time from onset of symptoms to hospital admission and the POSSUM scoring system could be prognostic factors for mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality in elderly patients who underwent emergency surgery for acute abdominal disease can be predicted using the disease scoring system (POSSUM) and on the basis of delay in hospital admission. Keywords.