The death of cost‐minimization analysis?

Four different types of evaluation methods, cost-benefit analysis (CBA), cost-utility analysis (CUA), cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and cost-minimization analysis (CMA), are usually distinguished. In this note, we pronounce the (near) death of CMA by showing the rare circumstances under which CMA is an appropriate method of analysis. We argue that it is inappropriate for separate and sequential hypothesis tests on differences in effects and costs to determine whether incremental cost-effectiveness (or cost-utility) should be estimated. We further argue that the analytic focus should be on the estimation of the joint density of cost and effect differences, the quantification of uncertainty surrounding the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio and the presentation of such data as cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. Two examples from recently published CEA are employed to illustrate the issues. The first shows a situation where analysts might be tempted (inappropriately) to employ CMA rather than CEA. The second illustrates one of the rare circumstances in which CMA may be justified as a legitimate form of analysis.     

The incomparability of cause of death statistics under “one country,two systems”: Shanghai versus Hong Kong

Background

Valid and comparable cause of death (COD) statistics are crucial for health policy analyses. Variations in COD assignment across geographical areas are well-documented while socio-institutional factors may affect the process of COD and underlying cause of death (UCD) determination. This study examines the comparability of UCD statistics in Hong Kong and Shanghai, having two political systems within one country, and assesses how socio-institutional factors influence UCD comparability.

Methods

A mixed method was used. Quantitative analyses involved anonymized official mortality records. Mortality rates were analyzed by location of death. To analyze the odds ratio of being assigned to a particular UCD, logistic regressions were performed. Qualitative analyses involved literature reviews and semi-structural interviews with key stakeholders in death registration practices. Thematic analysis was used.

Results

Age-standardized death rates from certain immediate conditions (e.g., septicemia, pneumonia, and renal failure) were higher in Hong Kong. Variations in UCD determination may be attributed to preference of location of death, procedures of registering deaths outside hospital, perceptions on the causal chain of COD, implications of the selected UCD for doctors’ professional performance, and governance and processes of data quality review.

Conclusions

Variations in socio-institutional factors were related to the process of certifying and registering COD in Hong Kong and Shanghai. To improve regional data comparability, health authorities should develop standard procedures for registering deaths outside hospital, provide guidelines and regular training for doctors, develop a unified automated coding system, consolidate a standard procedure for data review and validity checks, and disseminate information concerning both UCD and multiple causes of death.

     

The predicted pattern of emergence of vaccine-resistant hepatitis B: a cause for concern?

We develop an epidemiological model of hepatitis B virus (HBV) in The Gambia in order to investigate the possible patterns of emergence of a vaccine-resistant strain. Under pessimistic assumptions (e.g., the current vaccine provides no cross-immunity against the variant) the model predicts the variant will not become dominant over the wild-type for at least 50 years. Therefore the current low prevalence of variant infections is not evidence for high cross-immunity of the vaccine or for low infectiousness of the variant, but may simply be a consequence of the epidemiology of HBV. The efficacy of the present vaccine against possible variants needs to be evaluated now to determine whether vaccine modifications are required. However, the model also suggests that serological surveillance may be unable to determine this efficacy for 40-50 years.     

What is a genetic cause? The example of Alzheimer’s Disease

This paper focuses on the causation of diseases, particularly on the idea of a “genetic cause” taking Alzheimer’s Disease (AD) as an example. We (1) provide some historical information and a synopsis of the current knowledge on the etiology and pathogenesis of AD, (2) analyse some conceptual problems related to the notion of “genetic disease”, (3) elaborate on the alleged (genetic) cause of AD, and (4) place the discussion on the cause of AD in a broader philosophical context, paying attention to a constructivist perspective, the notions of causal connection and causal selection, and to some practical and normative consequences of our analysis. We conclude (a) that AD is not a specific disease entity with one specific cause, (b) that the idea of a single (sufficient) cause can still function as a heuristic tool in AD research and practice, and (c) that a “belief” in causation can go together with the notions of multicausality and probability.     

Trajectories of self-rated health in the last 15 years of life by cause of death

Poor self-rated health is associated with increased risk of mortality, but no previous study has examined how long-term trajectories of self-rated health differ among people at risk of subsequent death compared to those who survive. Data were drawn from French occupational cohort (the GAZEL study, 1989–2010). This nested case–control study included 915 deceased men and women and 2578 controls matched for sex, baseline age, occupational grade and marital status. Self-rated health was measured annually and dichotomized into good versus poor health. Trajectories of poor self-rated health up to 15 years were compared among people who subsequently died to those who survived. Participants contributed to an average 10.3 repeated assessments of self-rated health. Repeated-measures log-binomial regression analysis with generalized estimating equations showed an increased prevalence of poor self-rated health in cases 13–15 years prior to death from ischemic and other cardiovascular disease [multivariable-adjusted risk ratio 2.06, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.55–2.75], non-smoking-related cancers (1.57, 95 % CI 1.30–1.89), and suicide (1.78, 95 % CI 1.00–3.16). Prior to death from ischemic and other cardiovascular disease, increased rates of poor self-rated health were evident even among persons who were free of cardiovascular diseases (2.05, 95 % CI 1.50–2.78). In conclusion, perceptions of health diverged between the surviving controls and the deceased already 15 years prior to death. For cardiovascular mortality, decline in self-rated health started before diagnosis of the disease leading to death. The findings suggest that declining self-rated health might capture pathological changes before and beyond the disease diagnosis.     

The place of death of cancer patients: can qualitative data add to known factors?

Research on the distribution of cancer deaths by setting-hospital, hospice, home, other--is longstanding, but has been given fresh impetus in the UK by policy commitments to increase the proportion of deaths occurring in patients' homes. Studies of factors associated with the location of cancer deaths fall into two main categories: geo-epidemiological interrogations of routinely collected death registration data, and prospective and retrospective cohort studies of terminally ill cancer patients. This paper summarises the findings of these studies and considers the place of death factors that are generated in semi-structured interviews with 15 palliative care service providers working in the Morecambe Bay area of north-west England. These qualitative data are found not only to confirm and considerably enrich understanding of known factors, but also to bring new factors into view. New factors can be grouped under the headings: service infrastructure, patient and carer attitudes, and cultures of practice. Such an approach provides useful information for policy makers and practitioners in palliative care.     

The death (and rebirth?) of organization development

Reviews the origins and development of organization development (OD) in health care. Examines how a set of original OD assumptions and values has changed through time, and suggests some foundations for a "born-again" OD.     

Time to include time to death? The future of health care expenditure predictions

Government projections of future health care expenditures--a great concern given the aging baby-boom generation--are based on econometric regressions that control explicitly for age but do not control for end-of-life expenditures. Because expenditures increase dramatically on average at the end of life, predictions of future cost distributions based on regressions that omit time to death as an explanatory variable will be biased upward (or, more explicitly, the coefficients on age will be biased upward) if technology or other social factors continue to prolong life. Although health care expenditure predictions for a current sample will not be biased, predictions for future cohorts with greater longevity will be biased upwards, and the magnitude of the bias will increase as the expected longevity increases. We explore the empirical implications of incorporating time to death in longitudinal models of health expenditures for the purpose of predicting future expenditures. Predictions from a simple model that excludes time to death and uses current life tables are 9% higher than from an expanded model controlling for time to death. The bias increases to 15% when using projected life tables for 2020. The predicted differences between the models are sufficient to justify reassessment of the value of inclusion of time to death in models for predicting health care expenditures.     

Hospice-assisted death? A study of Oregon hospices on death with dignity

Nearly 90% of terminally ill patients who have used Oregon's distinctive death with dignity law to receive a medication to end their lives are enrolled in hospice care programs. In 2009-2010, we conducted a study of the policies developed by Oregon hospices to address patient inquiries and requests for death with dignity. The study examined the stated hospice values and positions and identified the boundaries to participation drawn by the hospice programs to protect personal and programmatic integrity. The boundaries were drawn around 6 key caregiving considerations: (1) language regarding physician-assisted death (PAD); (2) informed decision making by patients; (3) collaboration with physicians; (4) provision of lethal medication; (5) assistance in the patient's act of taking the medication; and (6) staff presence at the time of medication ingestion.     

Is temperature the main cause of dengue rise in non- endemic countries? The case of Argentina

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Dengue cases have increased during the last decades, particularly in non-endemic areas, and Argentina was no exception in the southern transmission fringe. Although temperature rise has been blamed for this, human population growth, increased travel and inefficient vector control may also be implicated. The relative contribution of geographic, demographic and climatic of variables on the occurrence of dengue cases was evaluated. METHODS: According to dengue history in the country, the study was divided in two decades, a first decade corresponding to the reemergence of the disease and the second including several epidemics. Annual dengue risk was modeled by a temperature-based mechanistic model as annual days of possible transmission. The spatial distribution of dengue occurrence was modeled as a function of the output of the mechanistic model, climatic, geographic and demographic variables for both decades. RESULTS: According to the temperature-based model dengue risk increased between the two decades, and epidemics of the last decade coincided with high annual risk. Dengue spatial occurrence was best modeled by a combination of climatic, demographic and geographic variables and province as a grouping factor. It was positively associated with days of possible transmission, human population number, population fall and distance to water bodies. When considered separately, the classification performance of demographic variables was higher than that of climatic and geographic variables. CONCLUSIONS: Temperature, though useful to estimate annual transmission risk, does not fully describe the distribution of dengue occurrence at the country scale. Indeed, when taken separately, climatic variables performed worse than geographic or demographic variables. A combination of the three types was best for this task.     

Do we really know the cause of death of the very old? Comparison between official mortality statistics and cohort study classification

Causes of death of 625 subjects who died during the 4-year follow-up of a large population-based elderly cohort (Three-City study) were independently classified by the study adjudication committee and the national mortality register. The former used all available data about the cause of death (hospital records, medical data obtained from family physicians or specialists, and proxy interviews) and the latter used internationally standardized recommendations for processing death certificate data. Comparison showed a moderate overall agreement for underlying cause of death between the study adjudication committee and the national register (kappa = 0.51). Differences were found especially for cardiovascular diseases (20.6% of deaths from the study committee vs. 32.5% from the national register) and ill-defined causes of death (22.7 vs. 4%). The proportion of disagreement increased in participants dying at age >85 compared to those dying at age ≤70 (adjusted odds ratio = 2.46, 95% confidence interval = 1.10–5.49). It was also higher when the study committee used hospital record data for defining cause of death, compared to adjudication based on data obtained from proxy (adjusted odds ratio = 1.85, 95% CI = 1.09–3.14). These findings raise questions about the validity of national mortality registers in very old persons. Disease-specific causes of death, especially vascular diseases, could be overestimated in this age group.     

The media's representation of the ideal male body: A cause for muscle dysmorphia?

OBJECTIVE: This study sought to examine the effects of media images on men's attitudes toward their body appearance. METHOD: A group of college men viewed advertisements showing muscular men, whereas a control group viewed neutral advertisements. Immediately thereafter, participants performed a computerized test of body image perception while unaware of the hypotheses being tested in the study. RESULTS: The students exposed to the muscular images showed a significantly greater discrepancy between their own perceived muscularity and the level of muscularity that they ideally wanted to have. DISCUSSION: These findings suggest that media images, even in a brief presentation, can affect men's views of their bodies.     

The effect of sociodemographic factors on infant mortality according to cause of death: a birth cohort in Seoul,Korea, 1999–2003

Objectives  

The aim of this study was to examine the effect of socioeconomic status and demographic factors on infant mortality, classified by cause of death, in a group of children born in Seoul, Korea during 1999–2003.     

One or two types of death? Attitudes of health professionals towards brain death and donation after circulatory death in three countries

This study examined health professionals’ (HPs) experience, beliefs and attitudes towards brain death (BD) and two types of donation after circulatory death (DCD)—controlled and uncontrolled DCD. Five hundred and eighty-seven HPs likely to be involved in the process of organ procurement were interviewed in 14 hospitals with transplant programs in France, Spain and the US. Three potential donation scenarios—BD, uncontrolled DCD and controlled DCD—were presented to study subjects during individual face-to-face interviews. Our study has two main findings: (1) In the context of organ procurement, HPs believe that BD is a more reliable standard for determining death than circulatory death, and (2) While the vast majority of HPs consider it morally acceptable to retrieve organs from brain-dead donors, retrieving organs from DCD patients is much more controversial. We offer the following possible explanations. DCD introduces new conditions that deviate from standard medical practice, allow procurement of organs when donors’ loss of circulatory function could be reversed, and raises questions about “death” as a unified concept. Our results suggest that, for many HPs, these concerns seem related in part to the fact that a rigorous brain examination is neither clinically performed nor legally required in DCD. Their discomfort could also come from a belief that irreversible loss of circulatory function has not been adequately demonstrated. If DCD protocols are to achieve their full potential for increasing organ supply, the sources of HPs’ discomfort must be further identified and addressed.     

The schistosome egg granuloma: immunopathology in the cause of host protection or parasite survival?

The granulomatous inflammatory response induced by schistosome eggs entrapped in the microvasculature of host tissues is considered responsible for much of the symptomatology of schistosomiasis. However, the evolutionary role of the egg granuloma in the host-parasite relationship is not yet well defined. Some evidence indicates that the lesion may protect the host, either by shielding tissues against toxic egg products, or by interfering with the migration patterns of secondary infections, and thereby non-specifically contributing to the host's acquired "immunity". We here review earlier work concerned with the role of the egg granuloma in the host-parasite relationship in schistosomiasis, and we present new experimental evidence to suggest that the function of this cell-mediated immune response might, in addition to its putative host protective function, facilitate the extravasation of parasite eggs in the mesenteries, and thereby contribute directly to the continuation of the schistosome life-cycle.