Comparison of the Aotearoa New Zealand Early Warning Score and National Early Warning Score to predict adverse inpatient events in a vital sign dataset

Aotearoa New Zealand uses a single early warning score (EWS) across all public and private hospitals to detect adult inpatient physiological deterioration. This combines the aggregate weighted scoring of the UK National Early Warning Score with single parameter activation from Australian medical emergency team systems. We conducted a retrospective analysis of a large vital sign dataset to validate the predictive performance of the New Zealand EWS in discriminating between patients at risk of serious adverse events and compared this with the UK EWS. We also compared predictive performance for patients admitted under medical vs. surgical specialties. A total of 1,738,787 aggregate scores (13,910,296 individual vital signs) were obtained from 102,394 hospital admissions to six hospitals within the Canterbury District Health Board of New Zealand's South Island. Predictive performance of each scoring system was determined using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Analysis showed that the New Zealand EWS is equivalent to the UK EWS in predicting patients at risk of serious adverse events (cardiac arrest, death and/or unanticipated ICU admission). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for both EWSs for any adverse outcome was 0.874 (95%CI 0.871–0.878) and 0.874 (95%CI 0.870–0.877), respectively. Both EWSs showed superior predictive value for cardiac arrest and/or death in patients admitted under surgical rather than medical specialties. Our study is the first validation of the New Zealand EWS in predicting serious adverse events in a broad dataset and supports previous work showing the UK EWS has superior predictive performance in surgical rather than medical patients.     

Performance of the PIRO score for predicting mortality in patients with ventilator-associated pneumonia

The ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) PIRO score is a new scoring system based on the PIRO concept. The aim of this study was to validate the PIRO score against the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II and VAP APACHE II in an independent group of VAP patients. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves were compared to determine the tests' abilities to predict intensive care unit and 28-day mortality. Variables associated with intensive care unit mortality were evaluated. One hundred and forty-eight intensive care unit patients who met radiographic and clinical criteria for VAP were included. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves for predicting intensive care unit mortality with the PIRO, APACHE II and VAP APACHE II scores were 0.605 (P=0.03), 0.631 (P=0.01) and 0.724 (P <0.0001), respectively. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve for predicting 28-day mortality were 0.614 (P=0.01) for PIRO, 0.633 (P=0.01) for APACHE II and 0.697 (P=0.002) for VAP APACHE II. No differences in area under the receiver operating characteristic curve between scores were found at either endpoint. Variables independently associated with intensive care unit mortality were bacteraemia (adjusted odds ratio 7.16, 95% confidence interval 1.19 to 42.98, P=0.03) and APACHE II (1.06, 1.01 to 1.11, P=0.006). VAP PIRO score was not a good predictor of intensive care unit and 28-day mortality. The low sensitivity and specificity of VAP PIRO score preclude its use clinically.     

Sequential organ failure assessment score in predicting outcome in patients with acute pancreatitis

Aims/Objectives

To evaluate the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score pertaining to the severity and outcome in acute pancreatitis, and compare its outcome with the APACHE II score in terms of accuracy and ease of operation with a view to establishing whether the SOFA scoring system can replace APACHE II in predicting severity and outcome of acute pancreatitis.

Methods

Fifty cases of acute pancreatitis were evaluated in this prospective study. These patients were treated as per standard protocols and followed up daily. Both SOFA and APACHE II scores were calculated at admission and thereafter at 48-hour intervals till discharge or death. Subsequently, the data were analysed, and receiver operating characteristic curves were made for SOFA, APACHE II and other biochemical parameters; a p-value < 0.05 was taken as significant.

Results

The SOFA score showed a significant association in predicting the severity of the disease, especially during the first week. Moreover, it decreased the predicted severity of APACHE II by 18% and mortality by 4.5%.

Conclusion

On the day of admission, SOFA scores were comparable with APACHE II in predicting the outcome with a higher area under the ROC curve, and displayed better predicting capability as compared to APACHE II.     

Determinants of ICU mortality in necrotizing pancreatitis: the influence of Staphylococcus epidermidis

BACKGROUND: The severity of acute necrotizing pancreatitis ranges from self-limited to rapidly progressive illness leading to multiple organ failure. Several scoring systems and clinical parameters have been used to predict the course of the disease. The aim of this study was to evaluate the clinical and microbiological determinants of poor outcome in necrotizing acute pancreatitis. METHODS: Medical records of 67 consecutive patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) of Oulu University Hospital due to acute necrotizing pancreatitis were retrospectively analyzed. All patients received standard surgical intensive care. RESULTS: Patients who died (n=14) had significantly higher APACHE II, SAPS II and Ranson scores at admission to the ICU and maximum SOFA score achieved during ICU stay than did the survivors. The non-survivors were hospitalized later from the time the symptoms were first manifest (5.3 vs. 2.4 days, P=0.051). Mechanical ventilation (P=0.002), surgical management (P=0.028), open packing surgical management (P=0.03), renal replacement therapy (P<0.001), use of inotropic drugs (P=0.012) and Staphylococcus epidermidis growth (P=0.029) in infected pancreatic tissue were all associated with mortality. CONCLUSIONS: In this study the time to hospitalization, severity of illness, intensity of care, and surgical management were associated with poor outcome. In addition, Staphylococcus epidermidis in pancreatic necrosis was associated with increased mortality.     

Improved prediction of outcome in patients with severe acute pancreatitis by the APACHE II score at 48 hours after hospital admission compared with the APACHE II score at admission. Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation

HYPOTHESIS: The 48-hour APACHE (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation) II score is a better predictor of pancreatic necrosis, organ failure, and mortality in patients with severe acute pancreatitis than the score at hospital admission. DESIGN: A retrospective analysis of 125 patients with acute pancreatitis. SETTING: A tertiary public teaching hospital. PATIENTS: Patients with severe acute pancreatitis as defined by 3 or more Ranson criteria or a hospital stay of longer than 6 days. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Pancreatic necrosis, organ failure, and mortality. RESULTS: A significant association was found between the 48-hour score and the presence of pancreatic necrosis (P<.001), organ failure (P =.001), and death (P<.001). By contrast, the APACHE II score at admission was significantly associated only with the presence of organ failure (P =.007). Deteriorating APACHE II scores over 48 hours were significantly associated with a fatal outcome (P =.03). The combined APACHE II score (defined as the sum of the admission and 48-hour scores) was significantly higher among nonsurvivors than survivors (P<.001), and was strongly associated with the presence of pancreatic necrosis (P =.001) and organ failure (P<.001). The 48-hour and combined scores accurately predicted outcome in 93% of the patients compared with 75% by the admission score. CONCLUSIONS: The 48-hour APACHE II score has improved predictive value compared with the admission score for identifying patients with severe acute pancreatitis who have a poor outcome. A deteriorating APACHE II score at 48 hours after admission may identify patients at risk for an adverse outcome.     

Comparative Evaluation of the BISAP Score with CT Severity Index in Predicting the Severity of Acute Pancreatitis

Early diagnosis of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) is important for the successful management of patients. Most scoring systems are complex or involve multiple parameters, which makes it difficult to ascertain the severity of acute pancreatitis at an early stage. Our study aims to evaluate the bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) in predicting the severity of pancreatitis and mortality in a rural population, where financial constraints pose a major problem during treatment. We studied 55 patients of acute pancreatitis who presented to our institution between October 2014 and August 2016. The BISAP score was calculated within 24 h of admission. During the hospital stay, the CT severity index (CTSI) was calculated, and patients closely monitored to detect presence of organ failure or mortality. The accuracy of the BISAP and CTSI scores in predicting severity and mortality was determined by plotting receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and calculating the area under curve (AUC). Sixteen (29%) patients developed persistent organ failure and were classified as severe acute pancreatitis (SAP), and four (7%) died. No patient with a BISAP score of 0 or 1 developed severe pancreatitis. The area under curve (AUC) for BISAP score in predicting severity and mortality was 0.902 and 0.958, respectively, better than that of CTSI. BISAP scores of 0 or 1 have a very high negative predictive value, and hence accurate for predicting mild disease. These patients can safely avoid a CT scan and the costs associated with it.     

Scoring systems for predicting outcome in acute hemorrhagic necrotizing pancreatitis.

Five scoring systems for predicting the severity and outcome of acute haemorrhagic necrotizing pancreatitis were retrospectively evaluated in 39 patients. The respective scores were Ranson, Imrie, APACHE II, multiple organ failure (MOF) and Sepsis Sensitivity Score (SSS). Twenty-two (56%) of the patients died. The survivors were significantly younger than the non-survivors, 68% of whom died within 3 weeks of admission to the intensive care unit. Stay in the unit was significantly longer in the former group. Sensitivity in prediction of death was best with APACHE II score greater than 9 (96%) and Ranson score greater than or equal to 3 (95%). Of the five scores, MOF greater than or equal to 4 gave the best equilibration between sensitivity (73%) and specificity (76%) and the strongest prediction of lethal outcome (80%). Although the independent factor age had low sensitivity (55%), it showed the highest values for specificity (88%) and prediction of death (86%). APACHE II scoring is concluded to be best for grading the severity of disease on admission to intensive care, while the MOF score is best for monitoring the degree of organ dysfunction and the intensity of supportive treatment.     

Early physiological response to intensive care as a clinically relevant approach to predicting the outcome in severe acute pancreatitis

HYPOTHESIS: The physiological response to treatment is a better predictor of outcome in acute pancreatitis than are traditional static measures. DESIGN: Retrospective diagnostic test study. The criterion standard was Organ Failure Score (OFS) and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score at the time of hospital admission. SETTING: Intensive care unit of a tertiary referral center, Auckland City Hospital, Auckland, New Zealand. PATIENTS: Consecutive sample of 92 patients (60 male, 32 female; median age, 61 years; range, 24-79 years) with severe acute pancreatitis. Twenty patients were not included because of incomplete data. The cause of pancreatitis was gallstones (42%), alcohol use (27%), or other (31%). At hospital admission, the mean +/- SD OFS was 8.1 +/- 6.1, and the mean +/- SD APACHE II score was 19.9 +/- 8.2. INTERVENTIONS: All cases were managed according to a standardized protocol. There was no randomization or testing of any individual interventions. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Survival and death. RESULTS: There were 32 deaths (pretest probability of dying was 35%). The physiological response to treatment was more accurate in predicting the outcome than was OFS or APACHE II score at hospital admission. For example, 17 patients had an initial OFS of 7-8 (posttest probability of dying was 58%); after 48 hours, 7 had responded to treatment (posttest probability of dying was 28%), and 10 did not respond (posttest probability of dying was 82%). The effect of the change in OFS and APACHE II score was graphically depicted by using a series of logistic regression equations. The resultant sigmoid curve suggests that there is a midrange of scores (the steep portion of the graph) within which the probability of death is most affected by the response to intensive care treatment. CONCLUSION: Measuring the initial severity of pancreatitis combined with the physiological response to intensive care treatment is a practical and clinically relevant approach to predicting death in patients with severe acute pancreatitis.     

Factors predicting discharge from intensive care: A Canadian experience

This study prospectively analyzed 481 admissions to a multidisciplinary intensive care unit in order to determine factors which may prove helpful in predicting outcome from an intensive care admission. Severity of illness was assessed by the admission acute physiology score and daily therapeutic intervention scoring system. Age, sex, diagnosis upon admission, nature of the admission (medical vs. surgical, emergency vs. elective) were also studied. Our results indicate that the admission acute physiology score during the first three days of the admission and thereafter, the daily therapeutic intervention scores from the previous day are the most reliable predictors of outcome from intensive care. Age was related to outcome only when it was associated with emergency and medical type admissions. A linear logistic regression analysis was used to construct a model predicting mortality within the intensive care unit based on acute physiology score and nature of the admission.     

Comparison of the severity of illness scoring systems for critically ill cirrhotic patients with renal failure

BACKGROUND: Mortality rates of cirrhotic patients with renal failure admitted to the medical intensive care unit (ICU) are high. End-stage liver disease is frequently complicated by disturbances of renal function. This investigation is aimed to compare the predicting ability of acute physiology, age, chronic health evaluation II and III (APACHE II and III), sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), and Child-Pugh scoring systems, obtained on the first day of ICU admission, for hospital mortality in critically ill cirrhotic patients with renal failure. METHODS: Sixty-seven patients with liver cirrhosis and renal failure were admitted to ICU from April 2001-March 2002. Information considered necessary for computing the Child-Pugh, SOFA, APACHE II and APACHE III score on the first day of ICU admission was prospectively collected. RESULTS: The overall hospital mortality rate was 86.6%. Liver disease was most commonly attributed to hepatitis B viral infection. The development of renal failure was associated with a history of gastrointestinal bleeding. Goodness-of-fit was good for SOFA, APACHE II and APACHE III scores. The APACHE III and SOFA models reported good areas under receiver operating characteristic curve (0.878 +/- 0.050 and 0.868 +/- 0.051, respectively). CONCLUSION: Renal failure is common in critically ill patients with cirrhosis. The prognosis for cirrhotic patients with renal failure is poor. APACHE III and SOFA showed excellent discrimination power in this group of patients. They are superior to APACHE II and Child-Pugh scores in this homogenous group of patients.     

Simple scoring system for the prediction of the prognosis of severe acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND: In severe acute pancreatitis (SAP), it is important clinically to predict the prognosis at the time of admission. Most scoring systems for severity of acute pancreatitis consist of multiple factors and are complicated. This investigation aimed to propose a simple scoring system for the prediction of the prognosis of SAP. METHODS: Prognostic factors were evaluated by receiver operator characteristic curve analyses and multivariate analysis from data that were obtained on admission of 137 patients with SAP. A simple scoring system with 3 most useful factors was made, and its usefulness was investigated in comparison with conventional scoring systems. RESULTS: Three prognostic factors were selected: serum blood urea nitrogen > or = 25 mg/dL, serum lactate dehydrogenase > or = 900 IU/L, and contrast-enhanced computed tomography finding with pancreatic necrosis. On admission, 137 patients were classified from 0 to 3 by the number of positive items (simple prognostic score [SPS]). Mortality rates for patients whose SPS was 0, 1, 2, and 3 were 2% (1/42 patients), 18% (7/40 patients), 48% (12/25 patients), and 67% (20/30 patients), respectively. Furthermore, when usefulness of SPS was compared with conventional scoring systems, the area under the curve by receiver operator characteristic curve analyses in SPS was 0.83; the Ranson score was 0.83; the Japanese severity score was 0.83; the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score was 0.81, and the Glasgow score was 0.75. After onset, SPS kept almost same levels from day 2 to day 6, and a significant difference was observed between survivors and nonsurvivors from day 1 to day 6. CONCLUSION: This scoring system that comprised 3 items is simple, is feasible for the prediction of prognosis and conventional scoring systems, and is useful for the selection of the extremely severe patients with SAP on admission.     

Serum osmolality and outcome in intensive care unit patients

BACKGROUND: The aim of the present study was to compare 16 routine clinical and laboratory parameters, acute physiologic and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) and sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score for their value in predicting mortality during hospital stay in patients admitted to a general intensive care unit (ICU). METHODS: A retrospective observational clinical study was carried out in a 15-bed ICU in a university hospital. Nine hundred and thirty-three consecutive patients with ICU stay > 24 h (36.2% surgical, 29.1% medical and 34.7% trauma) were observed. Blood sampling, patient surveillance and data collection were performed. The primary outcome was mortality in the hospital. We used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses and logistic regression to compare the 16 relevant parameters, APACHE II and SOFA scores. RESULTS: Two hundred and thirty-three out of the 933 patients died (mortality 25.0%). One laboratory parameter, serum osmolality [area under the curve (AUC) 0.732] had a predictive value for mortality which lay between that of APACHE II (AUC 0.784) and SOFA (AUC 0.720) scores. When outcome prediction was restricted to long-term patients (ICU stay > 5 days), serum osmolality (AUC 0.711) performed better than either of the standard scores (APACHE AUC 0.655, SOFA AUC 0.636). Using logistic regression analysis, the association of clinical parameters, age and diagnosis group with mortality was determined. CONCLUSION: Elevated serum osmolality at ICU admission is associated with an increased mortality risk in critically ill patients. Serum osmolality is cheaper and more rapid to determine than the scoring systems. However, further studies are needed to evaluate the predictive value of serum osmolality in different patient populations.     

Glasgow Aneurysm Score in Patients Undergoing Elective Open Repair of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm: A Finnvasc Study

OBJECTIVE: To use Finnvasc to determine whether the Glasgow Aneurysm Score predicts postoperative outcome after open repair of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). DESIGN: Retrospective study. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The operative risk of 1911 patients undergoing open repair of AAA was retrospectively graded according to the Glasgow Aneurysm Score. RESULTS: At 30 days 100 (5%) patients had died and 21% had developed severe postoperative complications. Receiver operating characteristics (ROCs) curve analysis showed that the Glasgow Aneurysm Score was predictive of postoperative mortality (area under the curve (AUC): 0.668, p<0.0001), severe complications (AUC: 0.654, p<0.0001), cardiac complications (AUC: 0.689, p<0.0001) and intensive care unit stay >5 days (AUC: 0.634, p<0.0001). Patients scoring >76 had significantly higher mortality (9% vs. 3%, p<0.0001), severe (31% vs. 15%, p<0.0001) and cardiac complications (12% vs. 4%, p<0.0001) and intensive care unit stay >5 days (12% vs. 6%, p<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: The Glasgow Aneurysm Score is a rather good predictor of immediate postoperative mortality and morbidity after elective open repair of AAA.     

Applying Ockham's razor to pancreatitis prognostication: a four-variable predictive model

OBJECTIVE: We sought to develop a simple yet accurate prognostic scoring system to determine the severity of acute pancreatitis at admission. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Because acute pancreatitis has a variable and frequently unpredictable course, identifying individuals at greatest risk for significant, life-threatening complications and stratifying their care appropriately remain a concern. Previous prognostic scoring systems predict severity reasonably well but are limited by time constraints, are unwieldy to use, or both. METHODS: Data from the international phase III trial of the platelet-activating factor receptor-antagonist Lexipafant were used to develop a 4-variable prognostic model. We then compared the model's ability to predict the severity of acute pancreatitis with the Ranson, Glasgow, and APACHE II systems. RESULTS: The model (BALI), which included BUN >or=25 mg/dL, Age >or=65 years, LDH >or=300 IU/L, and IL-6 >or=300 pg/mL, measured at admission, was similar to the Ranson, Glasgow, and APACHE II systems in its ability to identify increased mortality from acute pancreatitis. The receiver operating characteristic curve area for the BALI model was >or=0.82 +/- 0.03 (mean +/- SD) versus 0.75 +/- 0.04 (Ranson), 0.80 +/- 0.03 (Glasgow), and 0.79 +/- 0.03 (APACHE II). Furthermore, at a prevalence of 15%, the positive and negative predictive values for increased mortality were similar for all systems. CONCLUSION: The prognostic ability of the BALI 4-variable model was similar to the Ranson, Glasgow, and APACHE II systems but is unique in its simplicity and ability to accurately predict disease severity when used at admission or anytime during the first 48 hours of hospitalization.     

Can systemic inflammatory response syndrome score at admission predict clinical outcome in patients with severe burns?

IntroductionThe use of SIRS score as a predictor of outcomes in patients with severe burns has not been fully evaluated. Here, we aimed to test that whether admission SIRS score, combining with other predictors, could be used in predicting outcomes in patients with severe burns. Additionally, we compared the prognostic accuracy of admission SIRS score with other score systems and newly developed models.MethodsWe performed a retrospective study of adult patients with ≥40% total body surface area burns admitted to a burn center from 2005 to 2017. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality, and the secondary outcomes were hospital and intensive care unit length of stay. SIRS score, rBaux score, ABSI and newly developed models were compared using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis.ResultsOut of the total 144 patients, 128 (88.9%) met SIRS criteria on admission; with a predominant SIRS scores of 3. Patients with admission SIRS were more likely to have larger burns and have higher rBaux and ABSI scores when compared with non-SIRS patients. With the each increment of admission SIRS score, total and full-thickness burn areas, proportion of inhalation injury, tracheostomy and mortality increased significantly. However, SIRS score at admission was not increasingly predictive of deleterious outcomes when analyzed by multivariable regression analysis. Although the combination of SIRS score, age, and burn-specific variables showed better or equal prognostication of outcomes than that of other score systems, the contribution of the variable SIRS score was negligible.ConclusionsThe model with the variables age, percentage full-thickness burns, and inhalation injury provided excellent prediction of poor outcomes in patients with severe burns, while SIRS score has limited use for prognostic determinations.     

Improving mortality predictions in trauma patients undergoing damage control strategies

The increased use of damage control surgery in complex trauma patients requires accurate prognostic indicators. We compared the discriminatory capacity of commonly used trauma and intensive care unit (ICU) scores, including revised trauma score, injury severity scores, trauma score-injury severity scores, acute physiology and chronic health evaluations II, and clinical and laboratory parameters, on 83 consecutive trauma patients admitted to the ICU, undergoing damage control. Logistic regressions were built for mortality prediction within 30 days. Performances of the models were assessed in terms of discrimination and calibration. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve from the models were compared. Overall mortality was 38.5 per cent. A "clinical" model was constructed including ICU admission pH and hypothermia (≤ 35 C?°) and the number of packed red blood cells during the first 24 hours. This model was adjusted for age and demonstrated better discrimination for mortality prediction (areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.8054) than injury severity score (P value = 0.049), abdominal trauma index (P value = 0.049), and acute physiology and chronic health evaluations II (P value = 0.001). There was no statistically significant difference in discrimination for mortality prediction between the "clinical" model and revised trauma score (P value = 0.4) and trauma score-injury severity score (P value = 0.4). We concluded that the combination of ICU admission pH and hypothermia and blood transfusions during 24 hours provided an excellent discriminatory capacity for mortality prediction in this complex patient population.     

A useful new coma scale in acute stroke patients: FOUR score

Assessment of the severity of unconsciousness in patients with impaired consciousness, prediction of mortality and prognosis are currently the most studied subjects in intensive care. The aim of this study was to investigate the usefulness of the Full Outline of UnResponsiveness (FOUR) score in intensive care unit patients with stroke and the associations of FOUR score with the clinical outcome and with other coma scales (Glasgow [GCS] and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II). One hundred acute stroke patients (44 male, 56 female), who were followed in a neurology intensive care unit, were included in this prospective study. The mean age of the patients was 70.49 ± 12.42 years. Lesion types were determined as haemorrhagic in 30 and ischaemic in 70 patients. FOUR scores on the day of admission and the first, third and 10th days of patients who died within 15 days were lower when compared to scores of patients who survived (P=0.005, P=0.000, P=0.000 and P=0.000 respectively). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed significant trending with both FOUR score and GCS for prognosis; the area under curve ranged from 0.675 (95% confidence interval 0.565 to 0.786) when measurements had been made on day 3 to 0.922 (95% confidence interval 0.867 to 0.977) and 0.981 (95% confidence interval 0.947 to 1.015) for day 10. We suggest that FOUR score is a useful scale for evaluation of acute stroke patients in the intensive care unit as a homogeneous group, with respect to the outcome estimation.     

Prospective evaluation of a modified Early Warning Score to aid earlier detection of patients developing critical illness on a general surgical ward

Admissions to the intensive care unit (ICU) from the wards havea higher mortality when compared to patients admitted from theoperating theatres/recovery and accident and emergency department.¹Suboptimal care may contribute to morbidity and mortality ofpatients admitted from the ward.² Failure to appreciate physiologicalderangements of breathing and mental status has been demonstratedin patients who subsequently suffered cardiac arrest, and theseevents may have been apparent up to 8 h prior to the event.³⁴ The Early Warning Score (EWS) was developed as a simple scoringsystem to be used at ward level utilising routine observationstaken by nursing staff.⁵ Deviations from the normal score pointsand a total is calculated. The EWS was evaluated prospectively for 1 month. The score wasthen modified to include urine output, to make temperature deviationsless sensitive and to include normalised blood pressure (Table8). We then evaluated this prospectively for 9 months. A total score of 4 or more resulted in the patient being reviewedby ward medical staff and help sought from the intensive careteam if appropriate. Over a 9-month period 206 patients on twogeneral surgical wards were put on the scoring system, of these26 were admitted to the ICU. The APACHE II scores of these patientswas 16.6 (± 7.3). Eleven patients were admitted to theICU from the surgical ward who had not been monitored on themodified EWS and their admission APACHE II scores were 23.5(± 4.1). This compares with admission APACHE II scoresof 22.3 (± 5.5) in 43 patients admitted from surgicalwards in the 9-month period prior to introduction of the system.The introduction of the system has appeared to lead to earlierreferral to the intensive care unit.     

Outcome and quality of life of patients with acute pancreatitis requiring intensive care

BACKGROUND: Patients with severe acute pancreatitis often require intensive care unit (ICU) admission, have multiple complications, spend weeks to months in the hospital, and consume a large amount of resources. The aim of this study was to evaluate the ICU course, costs, mortality, and quality of life of patients who require ICU admission for acute pancreatitis. METHODS: Patients with acute pancreatitis requiring ICU admission were identified retrospectively. Data regarding in-hospital morbidity, mortality, and hospital costs were obtained. Long-term quality of life was assessed using the Short Form-36 Health Survey (SF-36). RESULTS: Fifty-two patients were identified. There were 31 men and 21 women: the mean age was 53 years (range, 22-89). The most common causes of acute pancreatitis were gallstones (44%) and alcoholism (17%). Pulmonary failure (52% required mechanical ventilation) and renal failure (21% required dialysis) were common. There were 39 (75%) hospital survivors and 13 (25%) nonsurvivors. In the first 24 h, the mean Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II scores were 10 +/- 6 in survivors and 16 +/- 4 in the nonsurvivors (<0.01). Mean length of ICU (15 +/- 18 and 28 +/- 31 days) and hospital (40 +/- 34 and 38 +/- 34 days) stays were similar in survivors and nonsurvivors, respectively (NS). The mean hospital cost for survivors was $83,611 +/- 88,434 and that for nonsurvivors was $136,730 +/- 95,045 (P = 0. 09). The estimated cost to obtain one hospital survivor was $129,188. Of the 39 hospital survivors, 5 died later, 21 completed the SF-36, and 13 were lost to follow-up. Long-term quality of life (SF-36) was similar to that of an age-matched population. Twenty of twenty-one felt their general health was at least as good as it had been 1 year previously. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with severe acute pancreatitis need prolonged ICU and hospital stays. APACHE II may be a good predictor of outcome; further, prospective evaluation is needed. Although resource utilization is high, most patients survive and have good long-term quality of life.     

Cholangitis score: a scoring system to predict severe cholangitis in gallstone pancreatitis

Abstract. Background/Purposes: Emergency biliary decompression and stone extraction are mandatory for patients with gallstone pancreatitis who have ampullary stone impaction or persistent stones and pus in the bile duct (severe cholangitis). The aim of this study was to devise a simple scoring system for the prediction of complicating severe cholangitis in gallstone pancreatitis. Methods: Clinical signs, laboratory data, and ultrasonography (US) findings at the time of admission, and the bile duct pathology at the time of bile duct exploration, were reviewed in 66 patients with gallstone pancreatitis. Variables which discriminated 26 patients with bile duct stones from 40 without were defined as predictive factors of bile duct stones. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to determine the optimal cutoff values of numerical variables. One point was allocated to each predictive factor, and the total score was defined as the cholangitis score (CS). Bile duct pathology identified at the time of bile duct exploration was graded into three categories: mild, moderate, and severe cholangitis. A threshold value of the CS, claimed to be predictive of severe cholangitis, was determined by using the ROC curve. Results: The scoring system consisted of four predictive factors: (1) pyrexia (temperature ≧38 °C), (2) elevated serum bilirubin (≧2.2 mg/dl), (3) dilated bile duct (≧11 mm maximum diameter on US), and (4) bile duct stones detected on US. The scoring system predicted severe cholangitis with 92% sensitivity and 98% specificity in patients with scores of three or four points. Conclusions: Patients with gallstone pancreatitis who meet three or four of the above predictive factors at the time of admission are likely to have severe cholangitis, and should be rapidly treated by biliary decompression and stone extraction. Received: July 13, 2001 / Accepted: November 16, 2001