Demographic and epidemiologic considerations for developing preventive strategies in the elderly

More than 29 million Americans are aged 65 and older, over 12 percent of the US population. This number is expected to increase to 35 million by the turn of the century and to 67 million by the year 2050. Growth is expected to be greatest among the oldest and most disabled members of this group, those aged 85 and older. Persons 65 and older are the largest consumers of medical care; their care needs will be even greater as we enter and move through the twenty first century. Most persons needing long-term care will reside in the community, not in nursing homes. In light of these projections, we must be concerned with community based prevention at all levels.     

Prevalence of diagnosed atrial fibrillation in adults: national implications for rhythm management and stroke prevention: the AnTicoagulation and Risk Factors in Atrial Fibrillation (ATRIA) Study

CONTEXT: Atrial fibrillation is the most common arrhythmia in elderly persons and a potent risk factor for stroke. However, recent prevalence and projected future numbers of persons with atrial fibrillation are not well described. OBJECTIVE: To estimate prevalence of atrial fibrillation and US national projections of the numbers of persons with atrial fibrillation through the year 2050. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS: Cross-sectional study of adults aged 20 years or older who were enrolled in a large health maintenance organization in California and who had atrial fibrillation diagnosed between July 1, 1996, and December 31, 1997. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence of atrial fibrillation in the study population of 1.89 million; projected number of persons in the United States with atrial fibrillation between 1995-2050. RESULTS: A total of 17 974 adults with diagnosed atrial fibrillation were identified during the study period; 45% were aged 75 years or older. The prevalence of atrial fibrillation was 0.95% (95% confidence interval, 0.94%-0.96%). Atrial fibrillation was more common in men than in women (1.1% vs 0.8%; P<.001). Prevalence increased from 0.1% among adults younger than 55 years to 9.0% in persons aged 80 years or older. Among persons aged 50 years or older, prevalence of atrial fibrillation was higher in whites than in blacks (2.2% vs 1.5%; P<.001). We estimate approximately 2.3 million US adults currently have atrial fibrillation. We project that this will increase to more than 5.6 million (lower bound, 5.0; upper bound, 6.3) by the year 2050, with more than 50% of affected individuals aged 80 years or older. CONCLUSIONS: Our study confirms that atrial fibrillation is common among older adults and provides a contemporary basis for estimates of prevalence in the United States. The number of patients with atrial fibrillation is likely to increase 2.5-fold during the next 50 years, reflecting the growing proportion of elderly individuals. Coordinated efforts are needed to face the increasing challenge of optimal stroke prevention and rhythm management in patients with atrial fibrillation.     

The health of the very aged.

Little information is available on the health status of persons 85 years or over. Recent United States data indicate that 20% of individuals 85 years of age or over reside in nursing and personal care homes and that among these institutional residents 31% are bedfast, 11% are chairfast and 71% manifest evidence of senility. An investigation into the health of persons 85 years of age or over in two Ontario counties revealed that 39% resided in long-stay institutions, and that one of the main differences between old people living independently in the community and those in institutions was the higher proportion of the latter needing help with the activities of daily living and showing mental disorientation. Of those individuals 85 years of age or over in institutions for 1 year, 26% acknowledged often feeling depressed and 18% acknowledged often wishing they were dead, but these tendencies were not more frequent in those 85 years of age or over than in those 65 to 84 years of age. These findings have implications for service and research needs and attitudes towards death.     

Trends in cigarette smoking in the United States. Projections to the year 2000

Data from National Health Interview Surveys from 1974 through 1985 are used to project cigarette smoking prevalence to the year 2000. Smoking prevalence in the United States has declined at a linear rate since 1974. If this trend continues, in the year 2000, 22% of the adult population (40 million Americans) will be smokers. By the year 2000, the major inequalities in prevalence will occur among educational categories. At least 30% of those who have not proceeded beyond a high school education will be smokers, whereas less than 10% of college graduates will smoke. Among the other sociodemographic subgroups, smoking prevalence is expected to decrease by the year 2000 to 20% among men, to 23% among women, to 25% among blacks, and to 21% among whites. Between 1974 and 1985, approximately 1.3 million persons per year became former smokers, indicating considerable success in public health efforts to encourage people to stop smoking. However, in the early 1980s, approximately 1 million new young persons per year were recruited to the ranks of regular smokers. This is equivalent to about 3000 new smokers each day. Public health efforts need to focus more on preventing young people from starting to smoke, and such prevention efforts should particularly target less educated socioeconomic groups.     

Population distribution residing at different altitudes: implications for hypoxemia

BACKGROUND: Hypoxemia can adversely affect health. The present study is aimed at estimating the prevalence of altitude-related low partial pressure of oxygen in arterial blood in Mexican population by means of census and geographic data. METHODS: Population, altitude, and characteristics of communities were obtained from the Mexican Institute of Statistics, Geography, and Informatics (INEGI). The population of each municipality (municipio) was assumed to have the same age distribution as that reported for the entire country. Partial pressure of oxygen in arterial blood (PaO(2)) was estimated from altitude and from a hypothetical alveolar-arterial oxygen gradient that increases with age. RESULTS: In Mexico, 3.95% of the population lives at altitudes 2,500 m above sea level. Census data for the year 1990 recount 3.6 million people distributed among 6,150 communities. Exposure to intermediate altitudes is considerable: one half of the Mexican population resides above 1,550 m, 32% above 2,000 m, 25% above 2,230 m, and 5% above 2,440 m. It was estimated that between 0.9 and 3.4% of the healthy population (between 800,000 and 3 million persons) have a resting PaO(2) <55 torr, a criterion frequently used for prescribing chronic oxygen therapy in patients with lung diseases. CONCLUSIONS; Although the exact prevalence of hypoxemia in Mexico awaits empirical data, a large number of people live in places where altitude may expose them to low partial pressure of oxygen in inspired air. Ensuing hypoxemia may adversely affect their health. Hypoxia may be particularly harmful to elderly persons and to patients suffering from respiratory diseases.     

Paediatric food allergy trends in a community-based specialist allergy practice, 1995-2006

OBJECTIVE: To examine changing demand for specialist food allergy services for children aged 0-5 years over the 12 years from 1995 to 2006 as an index of changing prevalence. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Retrospective analysis of the records of 1489 children aged 0-5 years referred to a community-based specialist allergy practice in the Australian Capital Territory (population, about 0.33 million). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Trends in demand for assessment for food allergy, dietary triggers and severity over 12 years, compared with Australian hospital morbidity data. RESULTS: 47% (697/1489) of 0-5 year-old children seen in private practice had food allergy (175 with food-associated anaphylaxis), most commonly to peanut, egg, cows milk and cashew. Over 12 years, the number of children in this age group evaluated each year increased more than fourfold, from 55 cases in 1995 to 240 in 2006. There was no change in the proportion diagnosed with allergic rhinitis in 1995 and 2006 (14.5% and 13.3%, respectively), urticaria (14.5% and 12.9%) or atopic eczema (54.5% and 57.0%). By contrast, the proportion with asthma dropped from 33.7% in 1995 to 12.5% in 2006 and the number with food allergy increased 12-fold, from 11 to 138 patients (and from 20.0% to 57.5% of children seen) The number with food anaphylaxis increased from five to 37 children (9.0% to 15.4%) over the same period. There were similar trends in age-adjusted Australian hospital admission rates for anaphylaxis in children aged 0-4 years, which increased from 39.3 to 193.8 per million population between the financial years 1993-94 and 2004-05, a substantially greater increase than for older age groups, or for the population as a whole (36.2 to 80.3 per million population). CONCLUSIONS: There is an urgent need for coordinated systematic studies of the epidemiology of food allergy in Australia, to ascertain risk factors and guide public health policy. An increased prevalence of food allergy has implications for public health and medical workforce planning and availability of allergy services in Australia.     

Population, birth control and West Viriginia

Defining population growth and the need for birth control for the medically indigent of West Virginia, using epidemiologic principles, is discussed. In comparing the birthrates for West Virginia and the U.S., it was determined that although initially higher than the birthrate for the U.S. as a whole in 1943, the West Virginia birthrate fell below the national average in 1953 and preceded the U.S. rate in its sharp decline. In the 10-year period from 1950 to 1960, the absolute number of births in West Virginia fell from 51,000 to 40,000, a drop of 22%. In the same decade, the absolute number of births in the U.S. rose 20%, from 3.5 million to 4.3 million. During that time, the total population for the state of West Virginia fell by 7% from 2,005,000 to 1,860,000. The steady decline in the absolute number of births and the birthrate in West Virginia since 1947 is due to a very high rate of out-migration of the 20-34 year old population. The fertility of those potential parents remaining in the state has stayed high, however, in some areas approximating the fertility pattern of developing countries of the world. In McDowell County, almost 1 out of every 3 potential mothers in the 20-24-year age range delivered a baby in 1960.     

A comparative study of physiologic intracranial calcifications

It has been the impression of clinicians that pineal calcification is infrequent in Shiraz, Iran. In order to evaluate this clinical impression 2000 consecutive skul X-rays taken at Saadi Hospital, Shiraz, Iran, were reviewed for the presence of physiologic intracranial calcifications. The incidence of these clasifications in male and female in consecutive age groups of 10 years from 0 to over 70 years of age were assessed and compared with previous reports from other countries. The average incidence of pineal calcification for those over 20 years of age was 18.29% in this study compared with 55% in the U.S.A. The incidence of calcification in the choroid plexus and the falx cerebri was also considerably less than previously reported. The literature is reviewed and the possible causes for the geographical differences in the reported frequency of physiologic intracranial calcifications is discussed. It is possible that racial and dietary factors may be significant in the variation in the incidence of pineal and other cranial calcifications noted in different countries. Within a population group, age and sex are additional factors.     

A FIVE YEAR REPORT ON COMMUNITY CONTROL OF HYPERTENSION, STROKE AND CORONARY HEART DISEASE IN THE SHIJINGSHAN PEOPLE''S COMMUNE, BEIJING

Survey and community control of hyperten- sion, stroke and coronary heart disease have been carried out in the Shijingshan People's Com- mune, Beijing since 1975. The prevalence rate of hypertension (WHO criteria) in people over 15 years of age is 5.50'70. A simple regime of compound antihypertensive drugs brought satis- factory control of hypertension in 65.43'/o. The coronary heart disease prevalence rate in persons over 40 years of age is 3.93To. FonOw up in 114 cases shows a 5 year case fatality rate of 7.670 from cardiovascular complications. ECG follow up examination in 85 cases shows improvement or stationary changes in 83.5'70 0f the group. Review of the mortality statistics sho!ws a 13.03To reduction in the cardiovascular mortality rate and a 23.21To reduction in the stroke mor- tality rate.     

Effective dietary counseling: helping patients find and follow "the way" to eat

The leading causes of mortality in the U.S. are well known: cardiovascular disease, cancer and stroke. But, in the field of preventive medicine, the argument is made that these are not the causes of death, but rather the mechanisms of death, in turn the result of true, underlying causes. Of the more than 2 million deaths that occur each year in the U.S., more than 1 million are premature and "preventable" through the modification of lifestyle and environmental exposures. Due to the epidemic of obesity and overweight, a clinical practice that neglects patient nutrition (or physical activity) patterns is neglecting the leading causes of death for patients. On this basis, routine counseling to promote healthful eating is encouraged by the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force and there is evidence that physician training in nutrition enhances counseling.     

Bicycle safety. What's new in '92?

There are over 100 million bicycle riders in America, according to the National Safety Council, and in the last two years more than 1.25 million accidents have been reported. About 77% of these accidents occurred among children under 15 years old. Nearly 44% of reportable injuries were in the 5-14 year old age group and 30% occurred among children under five years of age, according to the National Center for Health Statistics.     

A profile of the medically uninsured in Georgia

The provision of health care to the growing number of persons uninsured against medical expenses affects Georgia doctors, hospitals, and state and local government at all levels. While much is known nationally about the uninsured, there are no good data about this group in Georgia. This study uses U.S. Census Bureau data to provide a demographic profile of Georgians who lack health insurance and to identify groups at particular risk for being uninsured. Approximately 950,000 (17.7%) of non-elderly Georgia residents are uninsured, compared to 37 million (17.6%) in the U.S. as a whole. As is true generally in the U.S., those in Georgia who are poor, young, non-white, and in families with a female head are at greatest risk. Of particular note are the poor in Georgia with incomes from 50% to 100% of the federal poverty level (55.2% uninsured). This population deserves the special attention of all involved in finding a solution to this problem.     

The clinical response to treatment in adult Cushing's syndrome following remission of hypercortisolaemia

The clinical response of 57 adult patients with Cushing's syndrome due to bilateral adrenocortical hyperplasia or adrenocortical adenoma is documented following resolution of hypercortisolaemia by various forms of treatment. Despite satisfactory biochemical remission of the disease the clinical result was far less satisfactory when assessed by persistence of obesity (55%), menstrual irregularity (41%), hypertension (29%) and insulin-dependent diabetes (22%). Myopathy, hirsuitism and psychological abnormalities persisted to a lesser extent. The mortality rate of the series over a 30 year follow-up period was 4 times that of a general population matched for sex, age and year of entry into the series. Cardiovascular disease was the cause of death in 85%. Irreparable cardiovascular disease is produced early in the course of hypercortisolaemia, emphasizing the vital importance of the earliest possible recognition and treatment of this disease.     

Urban poor children

One-half of the world’s population lives in cities and towns; this is expected to increase to 70% by 2050. One in three urban dwellers lives in slums. As the urban population grows, so does the number of urban poor. Out of a billion children living in urban areas, approximately 300 million are suffering from exclusion or are at risk of exclusion. Urban poor children are devoid of basic rights of survival, development and protection and are marginalised in challenging conditions in overcrowded settlements. Rapid urbanisation and the consequent increase in urban population is one of the biggest challenges that developing countries, including India are facing. Thirty per cent (that is, 367.5 million) of India’s population of 1.23 billion live in urban areas. Moreover, this figure is increasing rapidly and is expected to reach 432 million (40%) by 2021. Rapid urbanisation has unfortunately outpaced development, and a large proportion (43 million) live in substandard conditions in slums. Now is the time to pay attention to the basic rights of the urban poor, especially the urban poor children, the most vulnerable group at the launching of 12^th Five-Year Plan & National Urban Health Mission (NUHM) in India.     

Childhood leukaemia in the West Berkshire and Basingstoke and North Hampshire District Health Authorities in relation to nuclear establishments in the vicinity

During the years 1972-85, 89 children aged 0-14 were registered with leukaemia in the West Berkshire and Basingstoke and North Hampshire District Health Authorities. Two nuclear establishments are located within the health authorities, and a third is situated nearby. Fifty of the 143 electoral wards in the two district health authorities lie wholly within, or have at least half their area lying within, a circle of radius 10 km around the establishments. In those 50 electoral wards 41 children aged 0-14 were registered with leukaemia, 28.6 registrations being expected on the basis of leukaemia registration rates in England and Wales (incidence ratio = 1.4, p less than 0.05). This excess was confined to children aged 0-4, among whom there were 29 registrations of leukaemia, 14.4 being expected (incidence ratio = 2.0, p less than 0.001). In the remaining 93 electoral wards there was a small and non-significant increase in the number of registrations of leukaemia at age 0-14 (48 observed, 40.8 expected; incidence ratio = 1.2). There was no obvious trend in the incidence of childhood leukaemia over the 14 years and the overall occurrence of the malignancy in the 143 electoral wards was consistent with a random distribution. In the surrounding Oxford and Wessex Regional Health Authorities the number of registrations of leukaemia at age 0-14 was virtually identical with that expected on the basis of registration rates in England and Wales (362 observed, 372.5 expected; incidence ratio = 1.0). These data indicate that in the two district health authorities studied there was an excess incidence of childhood leukaemia during 1972-85 in the vicinity of the nuclear establishments. In the West Berkshire and Basingstoke and North Hampshire District Health Authorities an average of 60,000 children aged 0-14 lived within a 10 km radius of a nuclear establishment each year. The normal expectation of leukaemia in these children was two cases a year, whereas the recorded incidence was three cases per year, representing one extra case of leukaemia each year among these 60,000 children.     

海南岛55岁及以上人群轻度认知障碍的患病率调查

目的全面了解海南岛55岁及以上人群轻度认知障碍（MCI）的患病率。方法采用人口学、健康史、简易精神状态检查量表（MMSE）、日常生活自理能力量表（ADL）、临床痴呆评定量表（CDR）等问卷和量表进行筛查。结果海南岛55岁及55岁以上人群MCI的患病率为4.25%,男性患病率为3.88%,女性患病率为4.57%,男女之间差异无统计学意义（P﹥0.05）;各年龄组随着年龄的增加,患病率增高（P﹤0.001）;相同年龄组男女之间比较,55～64岁、65～74岁年龄组女性患病率较男性高（P﹤0.05,P﹤0.01）,75～84岁年龄组男性患病率较女性高（P﹤0.05）,而在≥85岁的年龄组男女之间患病率差异无统计学意义（P﹥0.05）。文化程度越低,患病率越高（P﹤0.001）。结论高龄、低教育水平是海南岛MCI高发人群,应注意防治MCI,减少阿尔茨海默病（AD）的发生。     

Physician supply and distribution in Georgia

Physician supply in Georgia must be considered an urgent issue. Several important points must be recognized and addressed. The lowest physicians rates are in the more rural county population groupings. The only county population grouping with a surplus of physicians is in the over 150,000 population. The majority of physicians are concentrated in the metropolitan counties. Sixteen percent of all physicians practice in the 134 counties having less than 50,000 population. The majority of physicians are in primary care specialties. Family practice is the most dominant specialty in rural areas. By the year 2000, Georgia can expect to add 5,600 physicians due to growth. By the year 2000, Georgia can expect to lose 2,600 physicians due to retirement. Family practitioners are the most uniformly distributed of the specialties examined. They are also the specialty most needed. The average age of Georgia physicians is 46. General surgeons are in the oldest average age group (50), whereas internists are in the youngest (44). Older physicians are concentrated in the more rural areas. A significant number of all physicians are over age 55. The majority of these will be retired by the year 2000. Physicians over age 65 represent 9.2% of all physicians from the survey. In Georgia, 13.6% of all physicians were Foreign Medical School Graduates. They tend to locate their practices in medically underserved areas. The specialty choices most frequently favored by FMGs are: pediatrics, internal medicine, family practice, and obstetrics/gynecology. A total of 71.2% of all physicians accept Medicare patients; 83.8% accept Medicare patients. Ninety-two percent of all obstetricians accept obstetric patients, but this participation is threatened by problems with malpractice insurance.     

浙江省2769例健康人群跟骨骨密度测量结果及分析

目的为确定我国健康人群超声骨密度的参考值和骨质疏松症的诊断标准提供科学依据。方法采用美国Lunar公司生产的Ach illes Express跟骨超声骨密度测定仪,对2769名健康人(男1262名,女1507名)进行跟骨硬度指数的测定,了解浙江省不同性别健康人的跟骨超声骨密度随年龄、身高、体重等的变化规律及骨质疏松患病率情况,根据不同性别,每5岁为1个年龄组,64岁以上合并为1组,男女各共12组,对相关数据进行统计学分析。结果男女跟骨硬度指数的峰值分别出现在20~24岁和15~19岁,此后随年龄增长均逐渐下降,55岁以后女性硬度指数下降速度比男性快,骨质疏松患病率也高于男性。所用仪器(以日本“年轻成年人”为参照)得出的硬度指数T值与实际T值(以本研究人群“年轻成年人”为参照)差异存在统计学意义(仪器T值,男性不同年龄组χ2检验:χ2=71.049,df=18,P<0.01;女性:χ2=237.828,df=18,P<0.01;实际T值,男性不同年龄组:χ2=69.897,df=18,P<0.01;女性:χ2=239.324,df=18,P<0.01)。结论男女跟骨硬度指数与年龄、身高、体重均有相关性。目前所用进口仪器参照人群的骨密度分布与中国人并不完全相符,诊断中国人的骨质疏松尚需确定适合中国人自己的诊断标准。     

The future of cardiothoracic surgery in India

The population of India had just crossed one billion mark when we entered the new millennium and open-heart operations were carried out in 42,000 cases last year which is in sharp contrast of 42 operations/million population as compared to 1700/annum/million in USA. Cardiovascular diseases are major contributors to mortality and morbidity in India. Each year between 48,000 and 128,000 children are born in India with congenital heart diseases. In 1999, 6750 operations were done for congenital heart diseases. Though excellent results were achieved, but enough surgeries could not be done. There are more than one million rheumatic heart diseases in India and 50,000 new episodes are added every year. Well over 100,000 valve replacements have taken place during the last two decades. But the cost of valve replacement surgery is beyond common man's reach. There is need to set up an agency to provide heart valves at a subsidised rate. The rapid escalation of coronary heart disease in India is a matter of concern. In 1980, coronary by-pass surgery made up less than 10% of the work that was done by a cardiac surgeon. Today it is more than 60%. At present only 25,000 coronary by-pass operations and 12,000 coronary angioplasty procedures are done in a year. The Human Organs Transplantation Act though passed in 1994, but still only 50 heart transplants have been performed. The past two decades have seen remarkable changes in cardiac surgery in the country. The public hospitals need to be upgraded. The time has come for the MCI to permit joint training programmes between public and private hospitals. As insurance sector has come to the field, so a dramatic growth of health care facilities is expected. Until now, cardiac surgery in our country has developed in an unplanned manner. Progress has been the result of individual initiative. While significant progress has been made, it has not reached the nation's needs. With a planned approach, co-ordinated by IACTS, we can do better.