慢加急性乙型肝炎肝衰竭患者血清聚集素水平变化及其临床意义探讨*

目的 探讨慢加急性乙型肝炎肝衰竭(HBV-ACLF)患者血清聚集素水平变化及其临床意义。方法 2019年1月～2021年1月我院收治住院的HBV-ACLF患者48例和同期入院诊治的慢性乙型肝炎(CHB)患者60例,采用ELISA法检测血清聚集素水平。结果 HBV-ACLF组外周血白细胞计数、血清ALT、AST、TBIL和MELD评分分别为(8.0±2.8)×10⁹/L、(418.2±163.5)U/L、(386.1±139.2)U/L、(226.6±74.4)μmol/L和(23.2±5.3),显著高于CHB组【分别为(6.0±2.3)×10⁹/L、(163.8±75.7)U/L、(118.7±73.3)U/L、(25.6±12.4)μmol/L和(9.6±3.6),P<0.05】,而外周血PLT计数为(101.8±42.0)×10⁹/L,血清Alb水平为(32.6±7.6)g/L,PTA为(35.3±5.3)%,血清聚集素水平为(51.0±5.9)μg/mL,显著低于CHB组【分别为(128.5±54.4)×10⁹/L、(38.1±8.5)g/L、(77.4±9.3)%和(185.9±13.5)μg/mL,P<0.05】;9例HBV-ACLF晚期患者血清凝集素水平为(28.5±3.8)μg/mL,显著低于20例早期【(72.6±7.2)μg/mL,P<0.05】或19例中期【(46.0±5.2)μg/mL,P<0.05】患者,13例感染患者血清凝集素水平为(36.6±4.6)μg/mL,显著低于35例无感染患者【(56.6±6.1)μg/mL,P<0.05】,15例死亡患者血清凝集素水平为(39.8±4.3)μg/mL,显著低于33例生存患者【(72.3±7.6)μg/mL, P<0.05】;死亡患者血清总胆红素水平更高,MELD评分更高,PTA更低,并发肝性脑病为46.7%,并发肝肾综合征为40.0%,与生存患者比,差异显著(P<0.05)。结论 HBV-ACLF患者血清聚集素降低,其降低程度与预后相关,是否可作为一种潜在的生物标志物用于评估HBV-ACLF患者病情的严重程度和预后,值得进一步研究。     

四种评分模型对慢加急性乙型肝炎肝衰竭患者短期预后的评价

目的比较终末期肝病模型（MELD）、MELD-Na、慢性重型肝炎预后指数（PI）和肝移植标准（LTS）模型对慢加急性乙型肝炎肝衰竭患者短期预后的预测价值.方法在138例慢加急性乙型肝炎肝衰竭患者入院24小时内进行MELD、MELD-Na、PI和LTS评分,并随访3个月.应用受试者工作特征曲线（ROC）下面积（AUC）判断四个模型的预测能力.结果在观察期内与肝病有关的死亡患者72例,生存者66例.死亡组LTS、MELD-Na、MELD和PI平均值明显高于生存组（P〈0.01）,四个模型的AUC分别为0.860、0.801、0.749、和0.749,差异无统计学意义;四个模型预测的正确率分别为82.61%、76.81%、75.36%和73.91%,差异无统计学意义.结论4种模型对慢加急性乙型肝炎肝衰竭患者短期预后均有较好的预测价值.     

乙型肝炎相关慢加急性肝衰竭患者预后的危险因素分析

目的探讨乙型肝炎相关慢加急性肝衰竭(HBV-ACLF)患者的临床特征及远期预后的危险因素。方法回顾性分析第三军医大学西南医院2010年1月~(-2)015年1月住院的1116例HBV-ACLF患者的临床资料,观察影响患者1年生存时间及预后的危险因素,通过Cox回归模型筛选出影响预后的独立危险因素。计量资料组间比较采用t检验或t'检验,计数资料组间比较采用χ~2检验。结果在随访的1年时间内,562例患者死亡,病死率为50.4%。生存组和死亡组比较:年龄、ALT、TBil、尿素氮、血肌酐、国际标准化比值、血清Na+、白细胞(WBC)、中性粒细胞百分比、血小板(PLT)、HBV DNA载量、MELD评分、腹水、自发性细菌性腹膜炎、消化道出血、肺部感染、脓毒症、电解质紊乱、肝性脑病及急性肾损伤(AKI)在2组间的差异均有统计学意义(P值均0.05)。Cox回归分析结果显示:年龄、WBC、MELD评分、肝性脑病、电解质紊乱、AKI及PLT是HBV-ACLF患者1年病死率的独立危险因素(P值均0.05)。结论 HBV-ACLF是一个高病死率疾病,常常合并多种严重并发症。而影响HBV-ACLF患者1年病死率的主要危险因素包括年龄、WBC、MELD评分、肝性脑病、电解质紊乱、AKI及低PLT水平。     

IL-32联合终末期肝病模型对HBV相关慢加急性肝衰竭患者预后的预测价值

目的探讨IL-32联合终末期肝病模型(MELD)对HBV相关慢加急性肝衰竭(HBV-ACLF)患者预后的预测价值。方法选取2015年1月-2018年12月在苏州大学附属第一医院住院的92例HBV-ACLF患者,根据确诊后3个月随访情况分为存活组(n=40)和死亡组(n=52)。采用酶联免疫吸附试验(ELISA)测定患者的血清IL-32水平。收集患者的临床资料,包括年龄、性别、合并基础疾病、主要并发症、WBC、PLT、红细胞比积(HCT)、TBil、ALT、AST、Alb、SCr、PT、INR、HBV DNA等。符合正态分布的计量资料2组间比较采用t检验,不符合正态分布的计量资料2组间比较采用Mann-Whitney U检验;计数资料2组间比较采用χ2检验;IL-32与其他变量进行Pearson相关性分析;采用二元logistic回归分析影响HBV-ACLF患者预后的独立危险因素;利用ROC曲线下面积(AUC)评价IL-32联合MELD评分对HBV-ACLF预后的预测价值,AUC的比较采用正态性Z检验。结果2组间HCT、PLT、TBil、SCr、PT、INR、HBV DNA、IL-32、MELD评分比较差异均有统计学意义(P值均<0.05);IL-32与TBil(r=0.952,P<0.001)、MELD评分(r=0.850,P<0.001)均呈显著正相关;IL-32(OR=1.137,95%CI:1.040~1.243,P=0.005)和MELD评分(OR=1.055,95%CI:1.001~1.109,P=0.025)是HBV-ACLF患者死亡的独立危险因素;IL-32联合MELD评分对HBV-ACLF患者预后的预测价值最高(AUC=0.992,95%CI:0.981~1.000),优于IL-32(AUC=0.984)和MELD评分(AUC=0.877),差异均具有统计学意义(Z值分别为2.265、3.182,P值均<0.05)。结论IL-32、MELD评分均能预测HBV-ACLF患者预后,两者联合则预测价值更高。     

血栓弹力图评价乙型肝炎病毒相关慢加急性肝衰竭患者出血风险及预后价值研究

目的通过血栓弹力图(thromboelastography, TEG)检测乙型肝炎病毒相关慢加急性肝衰竭(HBVrelated acute-on-chronic liver failure, HBV-ACLF)患者的凝血功能,评价其在判断患者出血风险及预后方面的价值。方法收集83例HBV-ACLF患者的临床资料,用TEG检测患者全血凝血动力学,同时检测其常规生化、凝血等指标;比较消化道出血组和无消化道出血组之间,生存组和死亡组之间上述指标的差异;采用Pearson相关系数分析法分析凝血指标[PT、APTT、凝血酶原国际比值(international normalized ratio, INR)等]与TEG各参数[凝血因子活性(R值)、纤维蛋白原功能(K值)、纤维蛋白原功能(α-角)等]间的相关性;并用ROC曲线评价TEG的参数R值和PT对HBV-ACLF患者预后评估的能力。结果消化道出血组的R值、PT均较无消化道出血组明显延长,差异有统计学意义(P均<0.05);83例患者中死亡37例,病死率为44.58%,死亡组年龄、R值、K值、PT、INR、TBIL、血清肌酐均明显高于生存组,凝血综合指数(CI值)、α-角、血小板功能(MA值)、凝血酶原活动度、抗凝血酶III、AFP水平均低于生存组(P均<0.05);TEG参数中R值、K值与PT呈正相关,与纤维蛋白原(fibrirlogerl, Fg)呈负相关;α-角和MA值、CI值都与PT、INR、TBIL呈负相关,与Fg呈正相关; R值对HBVACLF患者预后评估的能力低于PT,AUC分别为0.655、0.816。结论 TEG检测能真实反映HBV-ACLF患者凝血和抗凝在低水平的再平衡状态,其指标的异常提示患者并发消化道出血的风险增加,但对预后评估的准确性低于PT。     

Modified model for end-stage liver disease improves shortterm prognosis of hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure

AIM To investigate whether the short-term prognosis of hepatitis B virus(HBV)-related acute-on-chronic liver failure(ACLF) could be improved by using a modified model for end-stage liver disease(MELD) including serum lactate.METHODS This clinical study was conducted at the First Affiliated Hospital, Fujian Medicine University, China. From 2009 to 2015, 236 patients diagnosed with HBV-related ACLF at our center were recruited for this 3-month followup study. Demographic data and serum lactate levels were collected from the patients. The MELD scores with or without serum lactate levels from survival and nonsurvival groups were recorded and compared.RESULTS Two hundred and thirty-six patients with HBV-ACLF were divided into two groups: survival group(S) andnon-survival group(NS). Compared with the NS group, the patients in survival the S group had a significantly lower level of serum lactate(3.11 ± 1.98 vs 4.67 ± 2.43, t = 5.43, P 0.001) and MELD score(23.33 ± 5.42 vs 30.37 ± 6.58, t = 9.01, P = 0.023). Furthermore, serum lactate level was positively correlated with MELD score(r = 0.315, P 0.001). Therefore, a modified MELD including serum lactate was developed by logistic regression analysis(0.314 × lactate + 0.172 × MELD-5.923). In predicting 3-month mortality using the MELD-LAC model, the patients from the S group had significantly lower baseline scores(-0.930 ± 1.34) when compared with those from the NS group(0.771 ± 1.32, t = 9.735, P 0.001). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUROC) was 0.859 calculated by using the MELD-LAC model, which was significantly higher than that calculated by using the lactate level(0.790) or MELD alone(0.818). When the cutoff value was set at-0.4741, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value for predicting short-term mortality were 91.5%, 80.10%, 94.34% and 74.62%, respectively. When the MELD-LAC scores at baseline level were set at-0.5561 and 0.6879, the corresponding mortality rates within three months were 75% and 90%, respectively.CONCLUSION The short-term prognosis of HBV-related ACLF was improved by using a modified MELD including serum lactate from the present 6-year clinical study.     

Prognostic value of keratin 18 for the patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure

<正>Objective To analyze the serum keratin 18(K18)level of patients with hepatitis B virus(HBV)-related acute-on-chronic liver failure(HBV-ACLF)and its correlation with prognosis.Methods From December 2012 to October 2014,120 patients who visited Fuzhou Infectious Diseases Hospital and were diagnosed with HBV-ACLF were enrolled,and 20 chronic hepatitis B(CHB)pa-     

Soluble mannose receptor as a predictor of prognosis of hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure

BACKGROUND Hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure(HBV-ACLF) is a syndrome with a high short-term mortality rate, and it is crucial to identify those patients at a high mortality risk clinically.AIM To investigate the clinical value of soluble mannose receptor(sMR) in predicting the 90-day mortality of HBV-ACLF patients.METHODS A total of 43 patients were diagnosed with HBV-ACLF between October 2017 and October 2018 at the Second Hospital of Anhui Medical University, and all of them were enrolled in this retrospective study. Their serum sMR levels were determined using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Demographic and clinical data, including gender, age, albumin level, total bilirubin(TBIL) level,international normalized ratio, HBV-DNA level, HBV serological markers,procalcitonin level, interleukin-6 level, and model for end-stage liver disease(MELD) score were accessed at the time of diagnosis of HBV-ACLF. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the independent risk factors for mortality.RESULTS Serum sMR level was significantly increased in HBV-ACLF patients compared with chronic hepatitis B patients and healthy controls(P 0.01). When compared with surviving patients, it was higher in those patients who succumbed to HBVACLF(P 0.05). Serum sMR level was positively correlated with MELD score(rs= 0.533, P = 0.001), HBV-DNA level(rs = 0.497, P = 0.022), and TBIL level(rs =0.894, P 0.001). Serum sMR level(odds ratio = 1.007, 95% confidence interval:1.004–1.012, P = 0.001) was an independent risk factor for the 90-day mortality inthe HBV-ACLF cases. The patients with HBV-ACLF were stratified into two groups in accordance with their serum sMR levels at the baseline(low risk: 99.84 pg/mL and high risk: ≥ 99.84 pg/mL). The 90-day mortality rates were27.3% in the low-risk group and 87.5% in the high-risk group. Furthermore, sMR level apparently improved the performance of MELD score for predicting the prognosis of patients with HBV-ACLF.CONCLUSION Serum sMR level may be a predictor of the prognosis of HBV-ACLF patients.     

HBV相关慢加急性肝衰竭患者短期预后预测模型的建立与评价

目的探讨HBV相关慢加急性肝衰竭(HBV-ACLF)患者短期(12周)生存预后的预测因素,建立新型预测模型。方法收集2015年4月-2018年8月在安徽医科大学附属省立医院确诊HBV-ACLF的67例患者的临床资料,根据确诊后12周随访生存情况分为生存组(n=28)和死亡组(n=39)。收集患者临床资料,包括性别、年龄、TBil、国际标准化比值(INR)、肌酐(Cr)、血清钠、PLT、ALT、AST、Alb、血清胱抑素C(CysC),是否有急性肾损伤(AKI)。正态分布的计量资料2组间比较采用t检验,偏态分布的计量资料2组间比较采用Wilcoxon秩和检验;计数资料组间比较采用χ2检验;影响HBV-ACLF患者预后因素采用多因素logistic回归法并建立预测模型;采用受试者工作特征曲线(ROC曲线)评价预测模型,ROC曲线下面积(AUC)的比较采用DeLong法。结果死亡组患者的年龄、TBil、INR、CysC、MELD评分均高于生存组,合并AKI患者的近期生存率明显低于无AKI者(P值均<0.05)。TBil[比值比(OR)=1.013,95%可信区间(95%CI):1.003~1.024,P=0.014]、INR(OR=6.857,95%CI:1.449~32.449,P=0.015)、CysC(OR=2.826,95%CI:1.001~7.983,P=0.050)、PLT(OR=0.982,95%CI:0.964~1.000,P=0.048)是HBV-ACLF患者短期生存的独立影响因素。TBil、INR、CysC和PLT联合建立TICP模型,TICP模型的AUC(95%CI)为0.879(0.776~0.946),MELD评分的AUC(95%CI)为0.760(0.644~0.859),两者比较有差异统计学意义(Z=2.708,P=0.007)。TICP预测HBVACLF患者短期生存情况的准确度(87.05%vs 67.16%)、敏感度(84.62%vs 56.41%)、约登指数(0.70 vs 0.42)均优于MELD评分。结论TBil、INR、CysC、PLT是HBV-ACLF患者短期预后的独立影响因素,四者联合建立的TICP预测模型对患者短期生存预后具有良好的预测价值。     

Survival and prognostic factors in hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure

AIM:To investigate the survival rates and prognostic factors in patients with hepatitis B virus-related acuteon-chronic liver failure(HBV-ACLF).METHODS:Clinical data in hospitalized patients with HBV-ACLF admitted from 2006 to 2009 were retrospectively analyzed.Their general conditions and survival were analyzed by survival analysis and Cox regression analysis.RESULTS:A total of 190 patients were included in this study.The overall 1-year survival rate was 57.6%.Patients not treated with antiviral drugs had ...     

乙型肝炎肝衰竭短期预后的影响因素

目的:探讨影响乙型肝炎肝衰竭患者短期(3mo)预后的危险因素并构建预测模型.方法:回顾性分析2005-06/2008-09在苏州大学附属第一医院就治的乙型肝炎肝衰竭患者137例,观察其3mo的生存情况,应用t检验、2检验及Logistic回归分析筛选影响短期预后的独立危险因子.结果:137例患者短期生存率63.8%(86/137)、死亡率为36.2%(51/137).存活组和死亡组患者年龄,肝硬化,总胆红素、血清白蛋白、血小板数、国际标准化比率(international normalized ratio,INR)、MELD分值、Child-Pugh分值及并发症肝性脑病、肝肾综合征、肺部真菌感染、消化道出血、腹水、自发性腹膜炎频数均存在统计学差异(P<0.05),分别为0.035、0.001、0.001、0.001、0.001、0.001、0.001、0.001、0.001、0.001、0.001、0.001、0.001、0.001.多因素Logistic回归分析显示年龄、INR值及并发症肝性脑病、肺部真菌感染与乙型肝炎肝衰竭短期预后有关.结论:高龄、INR值、并发肝性脑病及肺部真菌感染是影响乙型肝炎肝衰竭短期预后的独立危险因素.     

Nomogram prediction of individual prognosis of patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure

Background

The current definitions and etiologies of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) are clearly very different between East and West.

恩替卡韦治疗慢加急性乙型肝炎肝衰竭疗效的Meta分析

目的 系统评价恩替卡韦治疗慢加急性乙型肝炎肝衰竭的疗效和安全性。方法 应用计算机检索PubMed、Cochrane Library、CBMdisc、CNKI、维普、万方等数据库公开发表的文献,检索年限均从2006年1月至2014年9月。纳入恩替卡韦与拉米夫定相比较治疗慢加急性乙型肝炎肝衰竭的随机对照试验。由两名评判员对纳入试验独立进行质量评价和资料提取,采用RevMan5.1软件进行Meta分析。结果 经筛选共纳入7个随机对照试验,合计823例患者。Meta分析结果显示,恩替卡韦治疗6月以上的患者其病死率显著低于拉米夫定治疗患者[RR=0.75,95%CI（0.60,0.95）,P＜0.05];在治疗2～3 m和6 m以上评价,恩替卡韦治疗患者HBV DNA转阴率也显著高于拉米夫定治疗患者[RR=1.47,95%CI（1.29,1.68）,P＜0.05;RR=1.48,95%CI（1.30,1.67）,P＜0.05],病毒学突破率也显著低于拉米夫定治疗组[RR=0.07,95%CI（0.01,0.54）,P＜0.05],且未出现严重不良反应。结论 恩替卡韦治疗慢加急性乙型肝炎肝衰竭患者的远期病死率和病毒学突破率均显著低于拉米夫定,适合于长期抗病毒治疗。     

Assessment of scoring systems for acute-on-chronic liver failure at predicting short-term mortality in patients with alcoholic hepatitis

AIMTo assess the performance of proposed scores specific for acute-on-chronic liver failure in predicting short-term mortality among patients with alcoholic hepatitis.METHODSWe retrospectively collected data from 264 patients with clinically diagnosed alcoholic hepatitis from January to December 2013 at 21 academic hospitals in Korea. The performance for predicting short-term mortality was calculated for Chronic Liver Failure-Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (CLIF-SOFA), CLIF Consortium Organ Failure score (CLIF-C OFs), Maddrey’s discriminant function (DF), age, bilirubin, international normalized ratio and creatinine score (ABIC), Glasgow Alcoholic Hepatitis Score (GAHS), model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), and MELD-Na.RESULTSOf 264 patients, 32 (12%) patients died within 28 d. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve of CLIF-SOFA, CLIF-C OFs, DF, ABIC, GAHS, MELD, and MELD-Na was 0.86 (0.81-0.90), 0.89 (0.84-0.92), 0.79 (0.74-0.84), 0.78 (0.72-0.83), 0.81 (0.76-0.86), 0.83 (0.78-0.88), and 0.83 (0.78-0.88), respectively, for 28-d mortality. The performance of CLIF-SOFA had no statistically significant differences for 28-d mortality. The performance of CLIF-C OFs was superior to that of DF, ABIC, and GAHS, while comparable to that of MELD and MELD-Na in predicting 28-d mortality. A CLIF-SOFA score of 8 had 78.1% sensitivity and 79.7% specificity, and CLIF-C OFs of 10 had 68.8% sensitivity and 91.4% specificity for predicting 28-d mortality.CONCLUSIONCLIF-SOFA and CLIF-C OF scores performed well, with comparable predictive ability for short-term mortality compared to the commonly used scoring systems in patients with alcoholic hepatitis.     

IL-6基因多态性对HBV相关ACLF患者短期预后的影响

目的 研究白细胞介素6(IL-6)单核苷酸多态性(SNP)对慢加急性乙型肝炎肝衰竭(HBV-ACLF)患者短期预后的影响.方法 2017年4月～2020年4月我院收治的HBV-ACLF患者134例,采用imLDRTM多重SNP分型试剂盒检测血清IL-6基因rs1524107、rs2069837、rs2069840和rs...     

慢加急性/亚急性乙型肝炎肝衰竭患者发病诱因及影响临床转归因素分析*

目的 分析乙型肝炎相关性慢加急性(亚急性)肝衰竭(HBV-ACLF)患者发病诱因和影响临床转归的因素。方法 2019年1月～2021年12月我科收治的96例HBV-ACLF患者,接受内科综合治疗,观察90 d生存情况。应用单因素和多因素Logistic回归分析影响HBV-ACLF患者临床转归的因素。结果 本组HBV-ACLF患者发病诱因包括自行停用核苷(酸)类药物53例(55.2%)、并发HAV或HEV感染11例(11.4%)、并发细菌感染9例(9.4%)、劳累7例(7.3%)、饮酒6例(6.2%)、药物性肝损害5例(5.2%)和原因不明5例(5.2%);在治疗观察90 d,生存69例,死亡27例;死亡患者年龄为50(41,69)岁,显著大于生存患者【39(33,58),P<0.05】,并发消化道出血、肝性脑病和急性肾损伤的比率分别为14.8%、29.6%和44.4%,显著高于生存患者(分别为1.4%、5.8%和14.5%,P<0.05),血清总胆红素水平为532(204,780)μmol/L,显著高于生存组【302(80,416)μmol/L,P<0.05】,INR为3.0(2.0,3.4),显著大于生存患者【2.1(1.5,2.6),P<0.05】,MELD评分为26(18,37),显著大于生存患者【20(10,29),P<0.05】;多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示年龄【OR=1.04(95%CI:1.02～1.08)】、并发消化道出血【OR=1.51(95%CI:1.23～0.79)】、肝性脑病【OR=0.50(95%CI:0.22～0.78)】、INR【OR=1.52(95%CI:1.22～0.73)】和MELD评分【OR=2.44(95%CI:1.63～3.75)】均是影响HBV-ACLF患者死亡发生的独立危险因素。结论 熟知诱发HBV-ACLF患者发病的诱因有助于做好防治工作,而针对能引起患者死亡的因素做好临床救治可能提高肝衰竭患者生存率,临床和社会意义重大。     

HBV相关慢加急性肝衰竭患者短期预后的影响因素分析

目的分析探究影响HBV相关慢加急性肝衰竭(HBV-ACLF)短期预后的危险因素。方法收集2009年1月—2019年12月西安交通大学第二附属医院收治的240例非肝移植HBV-ACLF患者的临床资料,按照入院后28 d和90 d存活情况进行分组(28 d:生存组164例,死亡组76例;90 d:生存组140例,死亡组100例)。收集患者发病诱因、肝功能指标、MELD评分、MELD-Na评分和出现的并发症等资料。计量资料用2组间比较采用Mann-Whithey U检验,计数资料2组间比较采用χ^2检验。根据ROC曲线,计算ROC曲线下面积(AUC),采用约登指数确定临界值,HBV-ACLF短期预后的危险因素分析采用logistic多因素回归分析。结果HBV-ACLF患者的诱因主要包括HBV自发激活(55.6%)、核苷类似物停药或耐药引起HBV激活(25.2%)等。依28 d存活情况分组,基线资料中年龄、PTA、NLR、血钠、MELD评分、MELD-Na评分、TBil水平2组间比较差异均有统计学意义(Z值分别为-2.400、-6.015、-5.070、-5.103、-5.044、-7.430、-6.637,P值均<0.05);依90 d生存情况分组,基线资料中年龄、PTA、NLR、血钠、MELD评分、MELD-Na评分、TBil、胆固醇水平2组间比较差异均有统计学意义(Z值分别为-2.205、-7.728、-3.335、-4.015、-6.053、-7.908、-6.655、-3.607,P值均<0.05)。logistic多因素回归分析显示,TBil>260.20 mmol/L、PTA<24.8%、NLR>5.63、血钠<130.8 mmol/L、MELD>17.84分、MELD-Na>25.1分是影响患者28 d生存的独立危险因素[OR(95%CI)分别为4.572(1.321~15.823)、8.934(3.026~26.374)、2.632(1.126~6.152)、27.467(6.113~123.423)、4.303(1.048~17.663)、3.453(1.614~7.387),P值均<0.05];TBil>260.20 mmol/L、PTA<25.5%、血钠<135.3 mmol/L、MELD>17.84分、MELD-Na>25.1分是影响患者90 d生存的独立危险因素[OR(95%CI)分别为5.148(1.918~13.822)、15.718(5.161~47.866)、10.080(3.244~31.323)、11.157(2.580~48.254)、4.391(2.057~9.372),P值均<0.05]。240例患者中160例(66.7%)90 d内发生感染,其中细菌感染140例、病毒感染12例,真菌感染8例。160例出现感染的患者其90 d病死率显著高于无感染的患者(46.3%vs 32.5%,χ^2=6.720,P=0.010)。240例患者中176例28 d内出现腹水,44例出现胸腔积液,36例发生急性肾损伤,60例发生肝性脑病,12例发生消化道出血,2组间急性肾损伤、Ⅲ~Ⅳ度肝性脑病、消化道出血所占比例比较差异均有统计学意义(χ^2值分别为64.088、29.811、7.797,P值均<0.05)。结论HBV-ACLF患者基线TBil、PTA、血钠、MELD评分、MELD-Na评分是影响患者28 d和90 d预后的独立危险因素。HBV激活引起的肝脏炎症坏死是ACLF的始动因素,而感染、急性肾损伤、肝性脑病和消化道出血是影响患者预后的主要的并发症。     

Score model for predicting acute-on-chronic liver failure risk in chronic hepatitis B

AIM: To establish a clinical scoring model to predict risk of acute-on-chronic liver failure(ACLF) in chronic hepatitis B(CHB) patients.METHODS: This was a retrospective study of 1457 patients hospitalized for CHB between October 2008 and October 2013 at the Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University, China. The patients were divided into two groups: severe acute exacerbation(SAE) group(n = 382) and non-SAE group(n = 1075). The SAE group was classified as the high-risk group based on the higher incidence of ACLF in this group than in the non-SAE group(13.6% vs 0.4%). Two-thirds of SAE patients were randomly assigned to risk-model derivation and the other one-third to model validation. Univariate risk factors associated with the outcome were entered into a multivariate logistic regression model for screening independent risk factors. Each variable was assigned an integer value based on the regression coefficients, and the final score was the sum of these values in the derivation set. Model discrimination and calibration were assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. RESULTS: The risk prediction scoring model includedthe following four factors: age ≥ 40 years, total bilirubin ≥ 171 μmol/L, prothrombin activity 40%-60%, and hepatitis B virus DNA 107 copies/m L. The sum risk score ranged from 0 to 7; 0-3 identified patients with lower risk of ACLF, whereas 4-7 identified patients with higher risk. The Kaplan-Meier analysis showed the cumulative risk for ACLF and ACLF-related death in the two risk groups(0-3 and 4-7 scores) of the primary cohort over 56 d, and log-rank test revealed a significant difference(2.0% vs 33.8% and 0.8% vs 9.4%, respectively; both P 0.0001). In the derivation and validation data sets, the model had good discrimination(C index = 0.857, 95% confidence interval: 0.800-0.913 and C index = 0.889, 95% confidence interval: 0.820-0.957, respectively) and calibration demonstrated by the Hosmer-Lemeshow test(χ2 = 4.516, P = 0.808 and χ2 = 1.959, P = 0.923, respectively).CONCLUSION: Using the scoring model, clinicians can easily identify patients(total score ≥ 4) at high risk of ACLF and ACLF-related death early during SAE.