Leveraging Machine Learning Techniques to Forecast Patient Prognosis After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

ObjectivesThis study sought to determine whether machine learning can be used to better identify patients at risk for death or congestive heart failure (CHF) rehospitalization after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI).BackgroundContemporary risk models for event prediction after PCI have limited predictive ability. Machine learning has the potential to identify complex nonlinear patterns within datasets, improving the predictive power of models.MethodsWe evaluated 11,709 distinct patients who underwent 14,349 PCIs between January 2004 and December 2013 in the Mayo Clinic PCI registry. Fifty-two demographic and clinical parameters known at the time of admission were used to predict in-hospital mortality and 358 additional variables available at discharge were examined to identify patients at risk for CHF readmission. For each event, we trained a random forest regression model (i.e., machine learning) to estimate the time-to-event. Eight-fold cross-validation was used to estimate model performance. We used the predicted time-to-event as a score, generated a receiver-operating characteristic curve, and calculated the area under the curve (AUC). Model performance was then compared with a logistic regression model using pairwise comparisons of AUCs and calculation of net reclassification indices.ResultsThe predictive algorithm identified a high-risk cohort representing 2% of all patients who had an in-hospital mortality of 45.5% (95% confidence interval: 43.5% to 47.5%) compared with a risk of 2.1% for the general population (AUC: 0.925; 95% confidence interval: 0.92 to 0.93). Advancing age, CHF, and shock on presentation were the leading predictors for the outcome. A high-risk group representing 1% of all patients was identified with 30-day CHF rehospitalization of 8.1% (95% confidence interval: 6.3% to 10.2%). Random forest regression outperformed logistic regression for predicting 30-day CHF readmission (AUC: 0.90 vs. 0.85; p = 0.003; net reclassification improvement: 5.14%) and 180-day cardiovascular death (AUC: 0.88 vs. 0.81; p = 0.02; net reclassification improvement: 0.02%).ConclusionsRandom forest regression models (machine learning) were more predictive and discriminative than standard regression methods at identifying patients at risk for 180-day cardiovascular mortality and 30-day CHF rehospitalization, but not in-hospital mortality. Machine learning was effective at identifying subgroups at high risk for post-procedure mortality and readmission.     

Contemporary Trends of Clinical Outcomes in Primary Left Ventricular Assist Device Implantation and Postprocedure High-Risk Categories

ObjectiveWe aimed to analyze trends of 30-day readmission and find high-risk patients associated with increased risk of mortality, resource use, and readmission after primary left ventricular assist device (LVAD) implantation. Limited data exist on the contemporary trends of readmission rates and patients at a higher risk of worse outcomes after LVAD implantation.Methods and ResultsThis is a retrospective study of adults from the Nationwide Readmission Database who underwent primary durable LVAD implantation from 2010 to 2018. The main outcomes were 30-day readmission rates and their trends in patients with primary durable LVAD implantation from 2010 to 2018. This study also sought to identify patients at the highest risk for readmission, in-hospital mortality, and resource use. A total of 31,002 adults with primary durable LVAD implantation were included in the present analysis. Overall, 3808 patients (12.3%) died and 27,168 (87.6%) were discharged alive. Of those discharged alive, 8303 patients (30.6%) were readmitted within 30 days. The trend of 30-day all-cause readmission among LVAD implantation patients remained similar from 2010 to 2018 (P = .809). The in-hospital mortality rate during the index hospitalization decreased significantly (P = .014), and the mean cost of an index hospitalization increased (P = .031) during the study period. The patients with post-LVAD in-hospital cardiac, vascular, and thromboembolic complications (ie, high-risk patients) had the highest mortality, resource use, and readmission rates compared with patients without major complications.ConclusionsThis study found that the readmission rates associated with LVAD implantation did not change from 2010 to 2018 and identified high-risk patients who may benefit from closer monitoring after primary LVAD implantation.     

Profile of and risk factors for early unplanned readmissions in patients with acute necrotizing pancreatitis

IntroductionAcute necrotizing pancreatitis (ANP) complicates up to 15% of acute pancreatitis cases. ANP has historically been associated with a significant risk for readmission, but there are currently no studies exploring factors that associate with risk for unplanned, early (<30-day) readmissions in this patient population.MethodsWe performed a retrospective review of all consecutive patients presenting to hospitals in the Indiana University (IU) Health system with pancreatic necrosis between December 2016 and June 2020. Patients younger than 18 years of age, without confirmed pancreatic necrosis and those that suffered in-hospital mortality were excluded. Logistic regression was performed to identify potential predictors of early readmission in this group of patients.ResultsOne hundred and sixty-two patients met study criteria. 27.7% of the cohort was readmitted within 30-days of index discharge. The median time to readmission was 10 days (IQR 5–17 days). The most frequent reason for readmission was abdominal pain (75.6%), followed by nausea and vomiting in (35.6%). Discharge to home was associated with 93% lower odds of readmission. We found no additional clinical factors that predicted early readmission.ConclusionPatients with ANP have a significant risk for early (<30 days) readmission. Direct discharge to home, rather than short or long-term rehabilitation facilities, is associated with lower odds of early readmission. Analysis was otherwise negative for independent, clinical predictors of early unplanned readmissions in ANP.     

Trends for Readmission and Mortality After Heart Failure Hospitalisation in Malaysia, 2007 to 2016

Background and objectives:Data on population-level outcomes after heart failure (HF) hospitalisation in Asia is sparse. This study aimed to estimate readmission and mortality after hospitalisation among HF patients and examine temporal variation by sex and ethnicity.Methods:Data for 105,399 patients who had incident HF hospitalisations from 2007 to 2016 were identified from a national discharge database and linked to death registration records. The outcomes assessed here were 30-day readmission, in-hospital, 30-day and one-year all-cause mortality.Results:Eighteen percent of patients (n = 16786) were readmitted within 30 days. Mortality rates were 5.3% (95% confidence interval (CI) 5.1–5.4%), 11.2% (11.0–11.4%) and 33.1% (32.9–33.4%) for in-hospital, 30-day and 1-year mortality after the index admission. Age, sex and ethnicity-adjusted 30-day readmissions increased by 2% per calendar year while in-hospital and 30-day mortality declined by 7% and 4% per year respectively. One-year mortality rates remained constant during the study period. Men were at higher risk of 30-day readmission (adjusted rate ratio (RR) 1.16, 1.13–1.20) and one-year mortality (RR 1.17, 1.15–1.19) than women. Ethnic differences in outcomes were evident. Readmission rates were equally high in Chinese and Indians relative to Malays whereas Others, which mainly comprised Indigenous groups, fared worst for in-hospital and 30-day mortality with RR 1.84 (1.64–2.07) and 1.3 (1.21–1.41) relative to Malays.Conclusions:Short-term survival was improving across sex and ethnic groups but prognosis at one year after incident HF hospitalisation remained poor. The steady increase in 30-day readmission rates deserves further investigation.     

Impact of Hospital Procedural Volume on Outcomes After Endovascular Revascularization for Critical Limb Ischemia

ObjectivesThe aim of this study was to evaluate the interaction between hospital endovascular lower extremity revascularization (eLER) volume and outcomes after eLER for critical limb ischemia (CLI).BackgroundThere is a paucity of data on the relationship between hospital procedural volume and outcomes of eLER for CLI.MethodsThe authors queried the Nationwide Readmission Database (2013-2015) for hospitalized patients who underwent eLER for CLI. Hospitals were divided into tertiles according to annual eLER volume: low volume (<100 eLER procedures), moderate volume (100-550 eLER procedures), and high volume (>550 eLER procedures). Stepwise multivariable regression models were used. The main outcomes were in-hospital mortality and 30-day readmission with major adverse limb events, defined as the composite of amputation, acute limb ischemia, or repeat revascularization.ResultsAmong 145,785 hospitalizations for eLER for CLI, 5,199 (3.6%) were at low-volume eLER hospitals, 27,857 (19.1%) at moderate-volume eLER hospitals, and 112,728 (77.3%) at high-volume eLER hospitals. On multivariable analysis, there was no difference with regard to in-hospital mortality among moderate-volume hospitals (adjusted odds ratio [OR]: 0.78; 95% CI: 0.60-1.01) and high-volume hospitals (adjusted OR: 0.84; 95% CI: 0.64-1.05) compared with low-volume hospitals. There was lower risk of in-hospital major amputation (adjusted OR: 0.82; 95% CI: 0.70-0.96) and minor amputation at high- versus low-volume hospitals. The length of hospital stay was shorter and discharges to nursing facilities were fewer among moderate- and high-volume hospitals compared with low-volume hospitals. Compared with low-volume hospitals, eLER for CLI at high-volume hospitals had a lower risk for 30-day readmission with major adverse limb events (adjusted OR: 0.83; 95% CI: 0.70-0.99), while there was no difference among moderate-volume hospitals (adjusted OR: 0.92; 95% CI: 0.77-1.10).ConclusionsThis nationwide observational analysis suggests that annual eLER volume does not influence in-hospital mortality after eLER for CLI. However, high eLER volume (>550 eLER procedures) was associated with better rates of limb preservation after eLER for CLI.     

Is it possible to simplify risk stratification scores for patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction undergoing primary angioplasty?

IntroductionThere are several risk scores for stratification of patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), the most widely used of which are the TIMI and GRACE scores. However, these are complex and require several variables. The aim of this study was to obtain a reduced model with fewer variables and similar predictive and discriminative ability.MethodsWe studied 607 patients (age 62 years, SD=13; 76% male) who were admitted with STEMI and underwent successful primary angioplasty. Our endpoints were all-cause in-hospital and 30-day mortality. Considering all variables from the TIMI and GRACE risk scores, multivariate logistic regression models were fitted to the data to identify the variables that best predicted death.ResultsCompared to the TIMI score, the GRACE score had better predictive and discriminative performance for in-hospital mortality, with similar results for 30-day mortality. After data modeling, the variables with highest predictive ability were age, serum creatinine, heart failure and the occurrence of cardiac arrest. The new predictive model was compared with the GRACE risk score, after internal validation using 10-fold cross validation. A similar discriminative performance was obtained and some improvement was achieved in estimates of probabilities of death (increased for patients who died and decreased for those who did not).ConclusionIt is possible to simplify risk stratification scores for STEMI and primary angioplasty using only four variables (age, serum creatinine, heart failure and cardiac arrest). This simplified model maintained a good predictive and discriminative performance for short-term mortality.     

Mortality and 30-Day Readmission Rates After Inpatient Leadless Pacemaker Implantation: Insights From a Nationwide Readmissions Database

BackgroundThis study aimed to provide real-world data on the rates, trends, and predictors of in-hospital complications and 30-day readmission following leadless pacemaker (LP) implantation.MethodsWe analysed leadless and conventional pacemaker implantations with the use of the all-payer, nationally representative Nationwide Readmissions Database from 2017 to 2019. The national trends of in-hospital mortality, in-hospital complications, and 30-day readmission rates after pacemaker implantation were analysed. Mixed-effects multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to identify factors associated with in-hospital death and 30-day readmission in LP patients.ResultsA total of 137,732 admissions (age 78 years, IQR 70-85 years, 5986 LP implantations) were analysed. The in-hospital mortality, overall in-hospital complication, and 30-day readmission rates after LP implantations were 5.0%, 16%, and 16%, respectively. In LP recipients, the national estimate of in-hospital mortality declined from 10.9% in the second quarter of 2017 to 4.3% in the fourth quarter of 2019 (P < 0.001). Furthermore, the national estimate of overall complications declined from 20.6% in the second quarter of 2017 to 13.0% in the fourth quarter of 2019 (P < 0.001). In LP recipients, female sex, history of chronic kidney disease, heart failure, and malnutrition were factors associated with in-hospital death.ConclusionsAnalysis of the nationally representative claims database from the United States showed in-hospital mortality and complication rates (for LP implantation performed during hospitalisation) of 5.0% and 16%, respectively. Although these rates showed a decreasing trend over time, ongoing surveillance is needed for the safety of LP implantation.     

Prevalence and outcomes of acute-on-chronic liver failure among cirrhotic patients admitted for an acute decompensation

BackgroundAcute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a common syndrome that occurs in patients with advanced chronic liver disease. It consists of the rapid failure of various organs and is associated with high short-term mortality. We aim to describe the main features and outcomes of inpatients who developed ACLF and to identify the factors associated with in-hospital and 28-day mortality.Patients and methodsAll patients meeting ACLF criteria with advanced chronic liver disease admitted for decompensation from January 2014 to December 2016 were identified. Clinical and biological data were collected at the time of ACLF diagnosis and at 3–7 days thereafter, as well as in-hospital and 28-day mortality.ResultsEighty nine out of 354 admission episodes (28%) developed ACLF, which was present at the time of admission in 72% of cases. A precipitating factor was identified in 83% of cases, the most frequent being infection (53%) and gastrointestinal bleeding (19%). In the multivariate regression analysis, the ACLF grade at 3–7 days after diagnosis was predictive of in-hospital mortality and 28-day mortality, and lower creatinine and bilirubin levels at the time of ACLF diagnosis and a precipitating factor other than bacterial infection were associated with ACLF reversion at 3–7 days.ConclusionsACLF is a frequent complication among patients with chronic liver disease admitted for acute decompensations and is associated with a high mortality rate and is related to the number of organs involved. Bacterial infection is the most frequent precipitating factor of ACLF and probably entails a worse prognosis.     

Readmission and Mortality After Hospitalization for Myocardial Infarction and Heart Failure

BackgroundReadmission rates after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and heart failure (HF) hospitalizations have decreased in the United States since the implementation of the Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program.ObjectivesThis study was designed to examine the temporal trends of readmission and mortality after AMI and HF in Ontario, Canada, where reducing hospital readmissions has not had a policy incentive.MethodsThe cohort was comprised of AMI or HF patients 65 years of age or older who had been hospitalized from 2006 to 2017. Primary outcomes were 30-day readmission and post-discharge mortality. Secondary outcomes included in-hospital mortality, 30-day mortality from admission, and in-hospital mortality or 30-day mortality post-discharge. Adjusted monthly trends for each outcome were examined over the study period.ResultsOur cohorts included 152,808 AMI and 223,283 HF patients. Age- and sex-standardized AMI hospitalization rates in Ontario declined 32% from 2006 to 2017 while HF hospitalization rates declined slightly (9.1%). For AMI, risk-adjusted 30-day readmission rates declined from 17.4% in 2006 to 14.7% in 2017. All AMI risk-adjusted mortality rates also declined from 2006 to 2017 with 30-day post-discharge mortality from 5.1% to 4.4%. For HF, overall risk-adjusted 30-day readmission was largely unchanged from 2006 to 2014 at 21.9%, followed by a decline to 20.8% in 2017. Risk-adjusted 30-day post-discharge mortality declined from 7.1% in 2006 to 6.6% in 2017.ConclusionsThe patterns of outcomes in Ontario are consistent with the United States for AMI, but diverge for HF. For AMI and HF, admissions, readmissions, and mortality rates declined over this period. The reasons for the country-specific patterns for HF need further exploration.     

Utility of the new Japanese severity score and indications for special therapies in acute pancreatitis

Background  The Japanese severity score (JSS) for acute pancreatitis was revised in 2008. As special therapies for severe acute pancreatitis (SAP), continuous regional arterial infusion of protease inhibitor and antibiotics (CRAI) and enteral nutrition (EN) are now utilized in Japan. We investigated the usefulness of the new JSS and the indications for CRAI and EN based on the new JSS. Methods  We assessed the new JSS in 138 patients with SAP according to the previous Japanese criteria. Usefulness of the new JSS for the prediction of mortality rates was compared with conventional scoring systems by receiver-operator characteristic curve analysis. We analyzed the relationship between the new JSS and prognosis in patients with and without CRAI and EN, respectively. Results  Forty-five patients (33%) were assessed as having mild acute pancreatitis, and 93 patients (67%) were assessed as having SAP. Their mortality rates were 7 and 40%, respectively. The area under the curve for the prediction of mortality rates with the new JSS was 0.822 and was the highest among conventional scoring systems. In patients with new JSS ≥ 6, the mortality rate was lower in patients with CRAI than in patients without CRAI (P = 0.129). In patients with new JSS ≥ 4, the mortality rate was lower in patients with EN than in patients without EN (P = 0.016). Conclusions  The new JSS is useful and easier to use for the prediction of prognosis compared to the conventional scoring systems. EN was effective in reducing the mortality rate in patients with a new JSS ≥ 4.     

Trends,Predictors, and Outcomes Associated With 30-Day Hospital Readmissions After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention in a High-Volume Center Predominantly Using Radial Vascular Access

Background and aimPatients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) are at high-risk for hospital readmission. We examined the rate, factors associated with, and outcomes of 30-day readmissions for patients who underwent a PCI.MethodsWe reviewed medical records of all patients who underwent PCI between 2011 and 2014 at a central New England radial first, tertiary care center. Data was collected on occurrence and cause of readmission as well as patients' bleeding events and survival at one year. Logistic regression was used to examine factors associated with 30-day readmission as well as its association with bleeding and all-cause mortality.ResultsA total of 3858 patients were studied (mean age = 62.8 years with 26.1% women), among whom 348 (9.5%) patients were readmitted within 30-days. Cardiac causes of readmission represented 62% of all readmissions. In the multi-variable adjusted regression model, factors that were significantly associated with 30-day readmission included female gender, prior coronary bypass surgery, acute coronary syndrome, anemia, length of stay, and delay in initial presentation. Patients who were readmitted had more than twice the risk of bleeding and mortality at one year as compared to those who were not readmitted within 30 days.ConclusionsIn conclusion, our results suggest that early hospital readmission after undergoing PCI is common and has not changed in recent years. Efforts should be made to identify and closely monitor patients who are at risk for readmission after PCI.     

Safety of Same-Day Discharge after Percutaneous Coronary Intervention with Orbital Atherectomy

BackgroundSeverely calcified lesions present many challenges to percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Orbital atherectomy (OA) aids vessel preparation and treatment of severely calcified coronary lesions. Same-day discharge (SDD) after PCI has numerous advantages including cost savings and improved patient satisfaction. The aim of this study is to evaluate the safety of SDD among patients treated with OA in a real-world setting.MethodsThis was a single-center retrospective analysis of patients undergoing OA. In-hospital and 30-day outcomes were assessed for major adverse cardiac events (MACE), device-related events and hospital readmissions.ResultsThere were 309 patients treated with OA of whom 94 had SDD (30.4%). Among SDD patients, there were no acute procedural complications and all patients were safely discharged on the day of the procedure. MACE at 30 days occurred in 1 patient (1.06%) due to major bleeding in the setting of a gastric arteriovenous malformation. There were 8 patients with unplanned 30-day readmissions (8.5%).ConclusionSDD after OA in patients with heavily calcified lesions appears to be safe, with low rates of adverse events and readmissions in select patients. In patients with SDD treated with OA, unplanned readmission occurred at a similar rate to the statewide average 30-day PCI readmission rate. Larger studies are needed to confirm the safety of this treatment paradigm and the potential cost savings.     

Development and validation of prediction models for the risks of diabetes-related hospitalization and in-hospital mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes

ObjectivesDiabetes is a major cause of hospitalization and in-hospital mortality. However, a scoring system that can be used to identify diabetic patients at risk of diabetes-related hospitalization and in-hospital mortality is lacking.MethodsWe included 32,653 patients in this retrospective cohort study. All recruited patients had type 2 diabetes, were 30–84 years of age, and were enrolled in the National Diabetes Care Management Program over the period of 2001–2003. We used the Cox proportional hazard regression model to derive risk scores. The predictive accuracy of the models was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curves. We conducted the Hosmer–Lemeshow test to assess the agreement between predicted and observed risks.ResultsOver a follow-up period of eight years, 6243 patients were hospitalized for diabetes-related events, and 2048 deaths were registered in hospital records. For the one-, three-, five-, and eight-year periods, the areas under the curve (AUC) for diabetes-related hospitalization in the validation set were 0.80, 077, 0.76, and 0.74, respectively. The corresponding values for in-hospital mortality in the validation set were 0.87, 080, 0.77, and 0.76. The goodness-of-fit test showed that the predicted and observed probabilities in the one-, three-, five-, and eight-year periods were similar for diabetes-related hospitalization and in-hospital mortality in the validation set (all p values > 0.05).ConclusionWe developed models for the estimation of the risks of diabetes-related hospitalization and in-hospital mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes. The models may be used to identify diabetic patients who are at high risk for hospital admission and in-hospital mortality.     

Influence of obesity and malnutrition on acute heart failure

Introduction and objectives

Obesity is an independent risk factor for the development of heart failure. Several recent studies have found better outcomes of heart failure for obese patients, an observation termed as the “obesity paradox.” On the other hand, the negative effect of malnutrition on the evolution of heart failure has also been clearly established.

Methods

Data from the Minimum Basic Data Set were analyzed for all patients discharged from all the departments of internal medicine in hospitals of the Spanish National Health System between the years 2006 and 2008. The information was limited to those patients with a primary or secondary diagnosis of heart failure. Patients with a diagnosis of obesity or malnutrition were identified. The mortality and readmission indexes of obese and malnourished patients were compared against the subpopulation without these diagnoses.

Results

A total of 370 983 heart failure admittances were analyzed, with 41 127 (11.1%) diagnosed with obesity and 4105 (1.1%) with malnutrition. In-hospital global mortality reached 12.9% and the risk of readmission was 16.4%. Obese patients had a lower in-hospital mortality risk (odds ratio [OR]: 0.65, 95% confidence interval [95%CI]: 0.62-0.68) and early readmission risk (OR: 0.81, 95%CI: 0.78-0.83) than nonobese patients. Malnourished patients had a much higher risk of dying while in hospital (OR: 1.83 95%CI: 1.69-1.97) or of being readmitted within 30 days after discharge (OR: 1.39, 95%CI: 1.29-1.51), even after adjusting for possible confounding factors.

Conclusions

Obesity in patients admitted for HF substantially reduces in-hospital mortality risk and the possibility of early readmission, whereas malnutrition is associated with important increases in in-hospital mortality and risk of readmission in the 30 days following discharge.Full English text available from:www.revespcardiol.org     

Angiographic Functional Scoring of Coronary Artery Disease Predicts Mortality in Patients With Severe Aortic Stenosis Undergoing TAVR

Background/purposeCoronary artery disease (CAD) is common in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR), although its prognostic significance is questionable. Significant CAD stratified using SYNTAX score (SS) has been associated with greater mortality, yet it is unknown whether the functional impact of CAD also impacts outcomes in this cohort. DILEMMA score (DS) is a validated angiographic functional scoring tool that correlates with fractional flow reserve and instantaneous wave-free ratio.This study sought to assess the functional impact of CAD on outcomes in patients undergoing TAVR for severe aortic stenosis (AS).Methods/materials229 patients were included in this analysis. Patients underwent angiographic DS and SS and were classified using predefined values. The primary endpoint was one-year all-cause mortality, with secondary endpoints of 30-day major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE).ResultsThe mean age was 83.9 ± 0.5 years (55.0% female), with 11.8% all-cause mortality. CAD defined by ≥30% stenosis in any vessel was not associated with adverse outcomes (HR = 1.08, p = 0.84). However, the risk of one-year mortality was greater in patients with either SS > 9 (20.8% vs. 9.4%, HR 2.34, p = 0.03) or DS > 2 (18.4% vs. 8.5%, HR = 2.28, p = 0.03). Both scoring systems were also associated with 30-day MACCE (both p < 0.05). After multivariate adjustment, independent predictors of one-year mortality were DS > 2 (HR = 2.29, p = 0.04), left ventricular ejection fraction <50% (HR 2.66, p = 0.04) and COPD (HR 2.43, p = 0.04).ConclusionOur results demonstrate that angiographic functional scoring is independently predictive of both 12-month mortality and 30-day MACCE following TAVR.     

A validated risk model for prediction of early readmission in patients with hepatic encephalopathy

Introduction and aimHepatic encephalopathy (HE) is a common complication in cirrhotics and is associated with an increased healthcare burden. Our aim was to study independent predictors of 30-day readmission and develop a readmission risk model in patients with HE. Secondary aims included studying readmission rates, cost, and the impact of readmission on mortality.Materials and methodsWe utilized the 2013 Nationwide Readmission Database (NRD) for hospitalized patients with HE. A risk assessment model based on index hospitalization variables for predicting 30-day readmission was developed using multivariate logistic regression and validated with the 2014 NRD. Patients were stratified into Low Risk and High Risk groups. Cox regression models were fit to identify predictors of calendar-year mortality.ResultsOf 24,473 cirrhosis patients hospitalized with HE, 32.4% were readmitted within 30 days. Predictors of readmission included presence of ascites (OR: 1.19; 95% CI: 1.06–1.33), receiving paracentesis (OR: 1.43; 95% CI: 1.26–1.62) and acute kidney injury (OR: 1.11; 95% CI: 1.00–1.22). Our validated model stratified patients into Low Risk and High Risk of 30-day readmissions (29% and 40%, respectively). The cost of the first readmission was higher than index admission in the 30-day readmission cohort ($14,198 vs. $10,386; p-value <0.001). Thirty-day readmission was the strongest predictor of calendar-year mortality (HR: 4.03; 95% CI: 3.49–4.65).ConclusionsNearly one-third of patients with HE were readmitted within 30 days, and early readmission adversely impacted healthcare utilization and calendar-year mortality. With our proposed simple risk assessment model, patients at high risk for early readmissions can be identified to potentially avert poor outcomes.     

Predictive models of mortality and hospital readmission of patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis

IntroductionComplications of cirrhosis are one the major causes of hospital admission associated with high morbimortality rates and social and economic charges.The aims of this study were to evaluate hospital readmission and mortality rates and predictive factors for hospital readmission and mortality.MethodsPatients with decompensated cirrhosis admitted to our institution between 2008–2014 were retrospectively analyzed.ResultsIncluded 427 admissions from 177 patients with cirrhosis with mean age of 59.0 ± 12.3 years. The major cause was alcoholic-related liver disease and the median duration of admission was 9.0 days (IQR 6.0–14.0).During the follow-up period,there were 250 readmissions from 95 patients, with a median of 58 (IQR27-134) days for readmission, representing 58.5% of the total number of admissions.The 180-day mortality rate was 35.0%.In the multivariate analysis, ascites, smoking and MELD Na were associated with 180-day mortality. Creatinine, albumin, esophageal variceal bleeding, previous variceal banding, lactulose, rifaximin and proton pump inhibitors use were independently associated with need of readmission. Based on regression analysis, two models were calculated to predict 180-day mortality (AUROC 0.74 (0.682?0.794)) and need for readmission(AUROC 0.821 (0.781?0.861)), p < 0.001.ConclusionThe readmission rate and mortality of cirrhotic patients are still very high and it is a priority to determine preventable risk factors to improve patient outcome.Two models were created to predict 180-day mortality(AUROC 0.74) and need for readmission(AUROC 0.821), that could guide the management of the patients at the time of admission.     

Factors associated with recidivism following pancreaticoduodenectomy

ObjectivesFactors related to readmission after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) may include postoperative morbidity and the functional status of the patient. This study aimed to retrospectively review our institution's experience of readmission of patients who had undergone Whipple procedure PD.MethodsRecidivism was defined as readmission to the primary or a secondary hospital within, respectively, 30 days, 30–90 days or 90 days postoperatively. Associations between recidivism, perioperative factors and patient characteristics were evaluated.ResultsDuring the past 5 years, 30-day, 30–90-day and 90-day recidivism rates were 14.5%, 18.5% and 27.4%, respectively. The most common reasons for readmission included dehydration and/or malnutrition (37.5% of readmissions) and pain (12.5%). Patients who underwent PD for chronic pancreatitis were more likely to be readmitted within 90 days of surgery than patients who underwent PD for malignancy (P < 0.01). Intraoperative transfusion was also associated with 30–90-day and 90-day recidivism (P < 0.01). Preoperative comorbidities, including Charlson Comorbidity Index score, number of pre-discharge complications, type of Whipple reconstruction, preoperative biliary stenting, need for vascular reconstruction and patient body mass index were not associated with recidivism.ConclusionsOur data confirm previous reports indicating high rates of readmission after PD. To our knowledge, this report is the first to demonstrate chronic pancreatitis as an independent risk factor for readmission.     

Comparative influence of Acute Illness Severity and comorbidity on mortality

BackgroundThe extent to which illness severity and comorbidity determine the outcome of an emergency medical admission is uncertain. We aim to quantitate the relative effect of these factors on mortality.MethodsWe evaluated all emergency medical admission to our institution between 2002 and 2018. We derived an Acute Illness Severity Score (AISS) and Comorbidity Score from admission data and International Classification of Diseases codings. We employed a multivariable logistic regression model to relate both to 30-day in-hospital mortality.ResultsThere were 113,807 admissions in 58,126 patients. Both AISS, Odds Ratio (OR) 4.4 (95%CI 3.5, 5.5), and Comorbidity Score, OR 1.91 (95%CI 1.67, 2.18), independently predicted 30-day in-hospital mortality. The two highest AISS risk groups encompassed 46.5% of admissions with predicted mortality of 5.9% (95%CI 5.7%, 6.1%) and 14.4% (95%CI 13.9%, 14.8%) respectively. Comorbidity Score >=10 occurred in 17.9% of admissions with a predicted mortality of 13.3%. AISS and Comorbidity Score interacted to adversely influence mortality; the threshold effect for Comorbidity Score was reduced at high levels of AISS.ConclusionHigh AISS and Comorbidity Scores were predictive of 30-day in-hospital mortality and relatively common in emergency medical admissions. There is a strong interaction between the two scores.     

Implicações do índice de dispersão eritrocitária no risco de eventos hemorrágicos em doentes com síndrome coronária aguda sem supradesnivelamento do segmento ST

IntroductionHigher values of red blood cell distribution width (RDW) have recently been associated with worse outcome in patients with cardiovascular disease. However, its relation to bleeding events in patients with non-ST elevation acute coronary syndromes has not been established.AimTo determine the prognostic value of RDW in patients with non-ST segment elevation acute coronary syndromes, particularly regarding the risk of major bleeding.MethodsWe analyzed 513 consecutive patients admitted with non-ST elevation acute coronary syndromes. The population was divided into tertiles of baseline RDW and clinical, laboratory characteristics and adverse events were analyzed for each group. The primary outcome was defined as the occurrence of major bleeding (according to the Crusade bleeding score). The predictive value of RDW for risk of major bleeding was determined.ResultsThe mean RDW was 15.13%±1.62%. Patients in the third tertile were older and more frequently had renal dysfunction or previous coronary revascularization. Higher values of RDW were associated with greater risk of major bleeding and in-hospital death. RDW >15.7% was an independent predictor of bleeding events (odds ratio 3.1, 95% CI 1.4-6.9).ConclusionsIn a population of patients with non-ST elevation acute coronary syndromes, RDW was associated with higher in-hospital mortality and was an independent predictor of in-hospital major bleeding.