改良POSSUM评分系统在高龄普外科患者中的应用

目的评价改良POSSUM评分系统在高龄普外科病人中的应用价值。方法回顾性分析245例75岁以上的普外科手术病人的术后并发症率和死亡率，并与改良POSSUM评分系统预测的结果进行比较。结果改良POSSUM评分系统预测的并发症发生率为49.80％，死亡率为14.29％。实际并发症发生率为35.51％，死亡率为4.89％。结论在高危组病例中改良POSSUM评分系统更具有使用价值。     

POSSUM、(P、Cr)-POSSUM、APGBI评分系统预测结直肠癌术后死亡率的研究

目的：评价POSSUM、（P、Cr）-POSSUM、APGBI评分系统对预测结直肠癌术后死亡率的效果。方法：采用POSSUM、（P、Cr）-POSSUM、APGBI评分系统预测120例结直肠癌患者（分为中年组、老年组、总体）术后死亡率，并比较实际发生率与理论预测率的差异。结果：120例结直肠癌患者中，实际死亡率为1．67％（2例），中年组实际死亡率0％，老年组实际死亡率2．67％。POSSUM、P—POSSUM预测各组死亡率均高于实际水平；Cr—POSSUM、APGBI评分系统在预测总体水平及老年组时，理论预测率与实际死亡率比较无明显差异（x^2=0．839，P〉0．05），而预测中年患者预测值稍高于实际水平。结论：APGBI及Cr-POSSUM评分系统能较准确地评估结直肠癌患者手术风险性。     

POSSUM评分系统在肝移植中作用及临床意义

目的 探讨POSSUM评分系统在肝移植术后并发症和死亡率评估中作用.方法 应用POSSUM评分系统对126例肝移植病人进行评估,观察术后实际并发症发生率和死亡率,并与预测值比较.结果 预测并发症发生52人,实际发生数38人(P<0.05).符合率73.1%.预测死亡数35人,实际死亡数10人(P<0.05),符合率为28.6%.高危组预测准确性高,符合率50.0%～100%,而低危组高估死亡率,符合率12.5%.结论 POSSUM评分系统高估术后并发症,但能较好的预测高危病人术后死亡率.     

生理学和手术侵袭度评分预测泌尿外科高龄患者术后并发症的价值

目的　探讨改良生理学和手术严重度评分检点并发症和死亡率 (POSSUM )评分系统对高龄泌尿外科患者术后并发症评估的应用价值。　方法　回顾性分析 180例≥ 70岁患者的术后并发症情况 ,用改良POSSUM评分系统 (在生理学指标中以血Cr代替BUN ;在手术侵袭度中将腹腔污染及多种手术同时进行这两指标改为手术持续时间和手术径路 ,手术侵袭性根据泌尿外科情况分 4级 )进行评分 ,并按Copeland并发症发生率计算公式 ,比较实际并发症发病人数与预测发病数。 　结果　有并发症组 43例 ,男 40例 ,女 3例。平均年龄 (74.9± 4.1)岁。平均住院时间 (4 2 .1± 4.2 )d。生理学评分 2 2 .0± 4.1,手术侵袭度评分 11.7± 4.3。无并发症组 137例 ,男 12 9例 ,女 8例。平均年龄 (74.7± 3.6 )岁。平均住院时间 (2 8.7± 14.2 )d。生理学评分 2 0 .1± 3.9,手术侵袭度评分 10 .3±3.5。两组间比较差别均有显著性意义 (P <0 .0 5 )。按Copeland公式预测并发症人数 6 5例 ,实际并发症人数 43例 ,差别无显著性意义 (P >0 .0 5 )。Copeland公式计算每例患者的并发症发生率与实际情况相符合。　结论　改良POSSUM评分系统中的生理学指标和手术侵袭度指标对预测泌尿外科高龄患者术后并发症的发生有意义     

POSSUM评分预测胃肠道肿瘤患者术后并发症发生率和死亡率的价值

目的探讨POSSUM评分系统评估胃肠道肿瘤患者手术后并发症发生率和死亡率的临床价值。方法对171例胃肠道肿瘤患者分别在术后立即进行生理学和手术侵袭度评分,预测术后发生并发症和死亡的危险性,同时观察术后并发症发生率和死亡率的实际值,并与预测值进行比较。结果POSSUM评分预测并发症发生例数为75例,与实际并发症发生的96例比较,差异无显著性意义(P=0.3529)。POSSUM评分预测死亡例数为22例,与实际死亡的17例比较,差异也无显著性意义(P=0.3326)。结论POSSUM评分能较好地评估胃肠道肿瘤手术的预后。     

肠内营养预适应对胃癌术后患者早期肠内营养相关并发症及胃肠功能的影响

目的提高胃癌术后患者早期肠内营养胃肠道耐受性和促进胃肠功能恢复。方法将88例行胃癌根治术后拟早期肠内营养的患者随机分为观察组40例和对照组44例,观察组术前3d开始在常规饮食的基础上口服肠内营养液予以预适应,对照组术前常规饮食。结果观察组术后腹胀、腹泻、腹痛发生率显著低于对照组,首次进食流质时间、首次排气、首次排便时间显著优于对照组(P0.05,P0.01)。结论胃癌手术患者术前口服肠内营养能实现胃肠道预适应,能有效降低术后早期肠内营养胃肠道并发症发生率,促进术后胃肠道功能恢复。     

生理学和手术侵袭度评分在肺癌手术风险预测中的应用

目的探讨生理学和手术侵袭度评分(Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration ofMortality and Morbidity,POSSUM)预测肺癌患者术后并发症发生率和死亡率的应用价值,为临床治疗决策提供参考。方法回顾性分析2007年1月至2010年10月新疆医科大学第一附属医院住院期间接受肺癌手术治疗的179例原发性肺癌患者的临床资料,其中男124例,女55例;年龄(59.2±11.4)岁。术前应用POSSUM评分进行评分,将每位患者评分结果代入POSSUM评分的Copeland方程计算出预测的术后并发症发生率和死亡率。统计179例患者中术后实际并发症例数和死亡例数,将其分为无并发症组和有并发症组,比较两组POSSUM评分情况、并发症与死亡的实际值与预测值。对术后实际并发症和死亡发生的相关临床因素进行单因素分析。结果共有78例患者术后发生并发症,有并发症组生理学评分、手术侵袭度评分均明显高于无并发症组[生理学评分:(16.11±2.53)分vs.(14.88±1.86)分,P=0.000;手术侵袭度评分:(13.47±2.83)分vs.(12.88±2.57)分,P=0.000]。POSSUM评分预测术后并发症65例,实际并发症78例,差异无统计学意义(χ2=1.968,P=0.161)。POSSUM评分预测死亡12例,实际死亡3例,差异有统计学意义(χ2=5.636,P=0.018)。单因素分析结果显示年龄、血红蛋白量、术前肺功能、手术方式和手术时间均与术后并发症的发生相关;其中仅血红蛋白量与术后死亡的发生相关。结论 POSSUM评分能较好地预测肺癌患者术后并发症,但对术后死亡存在过度预测。5个临床观察的单因素具有较好的临床应用价值。     

改良POSSUM评分评价前列腺电切术术后并发症的价值

目的　探讨改良POSSUM评分系统在前列腺电切术 (transurethralresectionoftheprostate ,TURP)后并发症评估中的临床价值以及TURP后并发症发生的原因及预防。 方法　回顾性分析 3 3 6例TURP术后并发症情况 ,用改良POSSUM评分系统 (在生理学指标中以Cr代替BUN ,在手术侵袭度中将“多种手术同时进行”改为“前列腺体积” ,手术侵袭性根据泌尿外科情况分 4级 )进行评分 ,并按Copeland并发症发生率计算公式 ,比较实际并发症人数与预测发病数 ,同时比较有、无并发症组POSSUM评分间的差异。结果　用改良POSSUM评分预测并发症人数 79例 ,与实际并发症人数 66例之间差异无显著性意义 (P =0 .3 5 89)。无并发症组在年龄、生理学评分和手术侵袭度评分上均低于并发症组 ,差异有显著性 (P <0 .0 5 )。结论　改良POSSUM评分系统可正确评价TURP手术预后。根据评分结果应在围手术期加强监测及器官支持治疗 ,有助于减少并发症的发生     

APACHEⅡ对老年胸科危重病人预后评估的护理学意义

采用APACHEⅡ评分系统对 6 0例年龄≥ 6 5岁开胸手术病人进行回顾性评分。结果 6 0例病人APACHEⅡ评分均值为 14 .6 0± 7.14 ;死亡组 (7例 )评分为 2 2 .14± 8.11,存活组 (5 3例 )为 13.80± 6 .4 7,死亡组评分显著高于存活组(P <0 .0 1)。随着APACHEⅡ评分的增高 ,并发症增多 ,实际病死率与预测病死率均呈上升趋势 ,两者之间呈显著相关性 (r=0 .80 ,P <0 .0 1)。提示APACHEⅡ评分系统对预测老年胸科危重病人的术后并发症及病死率有重要的临床护理意义。     

联合脏器切除术在进展期胃癌治疗中的应用

目的　了解联合脏器切除术在进展期胃癌中的应用效果。方法　对我科 1994年 9月- 1997年 3月施以联合脏器切除术的 4 9例进展期胃癌病人的临床资料进行回顾性分析 ,并对照同时期未行根治手术和接受标准胃癌根治术的病人。结果　联合脏器切除术治疗进展期胃癌 1年、3年、5年生存率分别为 77.5 5 %、30 .6 1%、14 .2 9% ,明显高于同时期姑息手术和剖腹探查组 (1年生存率比较P <0 .0 1,3年、5年生存率比较P <0 .0 5 ) ,并发症发生率 12 .2 4 % ,与标准胃癌根治术组无明显差异 (P >0 .0 5 )。结论　联合脏器切除术治疗进展期胃癌能明显改善病人预后 ,延长生存期 ,且相对安全。强调适应证的掌握和手术方式的选择 ,注重围手术期的处理     

Evaluation of POSSUM and P-POSSUM scoring systems in assessing outcome after laparoscopic colectomy

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to compare the actual and predicted risk-adjusted morbidity and mortality after laparoscopic colectomy (LAC) calculated using both the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) and Portsmouth POSSUM (P-POSSUM) scoring systems. METHODS: All patients who underwent LAC performed by a single surgeon between March 1999 and December 2000 were analysed. The observed morbidity and mortality rates were compared with those predicted by the POSSUM scoring system, and the observed mortality rate with that predicted by P-POSSUM. The operative severity component of the operative score was sequentially decreased from 4 (standard score for open colectomy) to 2, then 1, in an attempt to correct overprediction. RESULTS: Two hundred and fifty-one consecutive patients underwent LAC, with a conversion rate of 8.0 per cent. The morbidity rate (6.8 per cent) was significantly lower than the predicted rates calculated with an operative score of 4 or 2 (12.4 per cent, P < 0.001; 9.6 per cent, P = 0.001), but was fully corrected with an operative score of 1 (7.0 per cent, P = 0.325). The observed mortality rate (0.8 per cent) was significantly different from the expected mortality rates calculated using either uncorrected POSSUM (9.6 per cent, P = 0.001) or P-POSSUM (3.5 per cent, P = 0.001). POSSUM (2.6 per cent, P = 0.007) continued to overpredict mortality but P-POSSUM (1.0 per cent, P = 0.001) accurately predicted mortality with an operative score of 1. CONCLUSION: LAC appeared to be associated with lower morbidity and mortality rates than those predicted by the POSSUM scoring system, and with a lower mortality rate than that predicted using the P-POSSUM system.     

Evaluation of POSSUM scoring system in the treatment of osteoporotic fracture of the hip in elder patients

Objective： To evaluate the applicability of the modified physiological and operative severity score for enumeration of mortality and morbidity （POSSUM） scoring system in predicting mortality in the patients undergoing hip joint arthroplasty.
Methods： A total of 295 patients with hip fractures were analyzed using the modified POSSUM surgical scoring system. The mean ages of the patients were 66.59 years in the complicative group, 62.28 years in noncomplicative group, 77.89 years in the death group and 63.25 years in the living group, respectively. The comparisons between the observed and predicted morbidity, between the observed and predicted mortality were made within 30 days after operation. Results： The average physiological scores and operative severity scores was 18.96 ± 4.83 and 13.47 ± 2.01 in complicative group, while 15.65 ± 3.66 and 11.74 ± 2.26 innoncomplicative group （P〈0.05）. The average physiological scores and operative severity scores was 25.56 ± 3.78 and 14.22 ± 0.67 in death group, while 16.46 ± 4.09 and 12.25 ± 2.33 in living group （P〈0.05）. Though POSSUM scoring system over-predicted the overall risk of death, its estimate was very close in the high risk groups （〉10%）. There was perfect consistence between the observed and the predicted morbidity as calculated by published predictor equation for morbidity, and consistence for mortality in the high risk band.
Conclusions： Modified POSSUM scoring system may be used to predict the morbidity in patients with hip fracture. Furthermore, POSSUM scoring system overpredicts the overall risk of death, but its estimate is close to the actual data in the high risk band （〉10%）.     

Risk-adjusted surgical audit with the POSSUM scoring system in a developing country. Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity

BACKGROUND: The Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) is an objective and appropriate scoring system for risk-adjusted comparative general surgical audit. This score was devised in the UK and has been used widely, but application of POSSUM to centres outside the UK has been limited, especially in developing countries. This prospective study validated its application in a surgical practice with a different population and level of resources. METHODS: All general surgical patients who were operated on under regional or general anaesthesia as inpatients over a 4-month period at Sarawak General Hospital in 1999 were entered into the study. All data (12 physiological and six operative factors) were analysed for mortality only with the POSSUM equation and the modified Portsmouth POSSUM (P-POSSUM) equation. Comparisons were made between predicted and observed mortality rates according to four groups of risk: 0-4, 5-14, 15-49 and 50 per cent or more using the 'linear' method of analysis. RESULTS: There were 605 patients who satisfied the criteria for the study. Some 56.7 per cent of patients were in the lowest risk group. The POSSUM predictor equation significantly overestimated the mortality in this group, by a factor of 9.3. The overall observed mortality rate was 6.1 per cent and, again, the POSSUM predictor equation overestimated it at 10.5 per cent (P < 0.01). In contrast, the observed and predicted mortality rates for all risk groups, including the predicted overall mortality rate of 4.8 per cent, were comparable when the P-POSSUM predictor equation was used. CONCLUSION: The POSSUM scoring system with the modified P-POSSUM predictor equation for mortality was applicable in Malaysia, a developing country, for risk-adjusted surgical audit. This scoring system may serve as a useful comparative audit tool for surgical practice in many geographical locations.     

POSSUM评分系统预测高龄患者胰十二指肠切除术风险的价值

目的：探讨应用POSSUM评分系统评估高龄患者行胰十二指肠切除术（PD）风险的可靠性。方法：将2010年2月—2011年2月间收治的80例行PD患者按照年龄进行分为两组，其中38例≥80岁者为研究组，42例<80岁者作为对照组。分析两组术中、术后情况，比较两组POSSUM评分及POSSUM评分系统对两组并发症发生率与病死率的预测值与实际值间的差异。结果：研究组与对照组比较，手术时间、术中出血量、输血量均无统计学差异（P>0.05），但研究组的住院时间长于对照组（P<0.05）。研究组的POSSUM评分明显高于对照组的POSSUM评分（P<0.05）；研究组实际术后并发症发生率和病死率与预测值无统计学差异（P>0.05），而对照组的实际术后并发症发生率和病死率均低于预测值（P<0.05）。结论：采用POSSUM评分系统能够较准确评估高龄患者行PD的手术风险，故对患者围术期管理具有重要的指导意义。

     

Evaluation of POSSUM and P-POSSUM scoring systems for predicting the mortality in elective neurosurgical patients

A simple way of evaluating surgical outcomes is to compare mortality and morbidity. Such comparisons may be misleading without a proper case mix. The POSSUM scoring system was developed to overcome this problem. The score can be used to derive predictive mortality and morbidity for surgical procedures. POSSUM and a modified version P-POSSUM have been evaluated in various groups of surgical patients for the accuracy of predicting mortality. These scoring systems have not been evaluated in neurosurgical patients. Thus, we tried to evaluate the usefulness of POSSUM and P-POSSUM scoring systems in neurosurgical patients in predicting in-hospital mortality. POSSUM physiological and operative variables were collected from all neurosurgical patients undergoing elective craniotomy, from April 2005 to Feb 2006. In-hospital mortality was obtained from the hospital mortality register. The physiological score, operative score, POSSUM predicted mortality rate and P-POSSUM predicted mortality rate were calculated using a calculator. The observed number of deaths was compared against the predicted deaths. A total of 285 patients with a mean age of 38 +/- 15 years were studied. Overall observed mortality was nine patients (3.16%). The mortality predicted by the P-POSSUM model was also nine patients (3.16%). Mortality predicted by POSSUM was poor with predicted deaths in 31 patients (11%). The difference between observed and predicted deaths at different risk levels was not significant with P-POSSUM (p = 0.424) and was significantly different with POSSUM score (p < 0.001). P-POSSUM scoring system was highly accurate in predicting the overall mortality in neurosurgical patients. In contrast, POSSUM score was not useful for prediction of mortality.     

Accuracy of the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity score and the Nottingham risk score in hip fracture patients in Sweden — A prospective observational study

Background

Little is known about accuracy of common risk prediction scores in elderly patients suffering from hip fractures. The objective of this study was to investigate accuracy of the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) score, Portsmouth‐POSSUM (P‐POSSUM) score and the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) for prediction of mortality and morbidity in this patient group.

Methods

This was a prospective single centre observational study on 997 patients suffering out‐of‐hospital cervical, trochanteric or subtrochanteric fracture of the neck of the femur. Calibration and discrimination was assessed by calculating the ratio of observed to expected events (O:E) and areas under receiver operating characteristics curves (ROC).

Results

The 30‐day mortality was 6.2% and complications, as defined by POSSUM, occurred in 41% of the patients. Overall O:E ratios for POSSUM, P‐POSSUM and NHFS scores for 30‐day mortality were 0.90, 0.98, and 0.79 respectively. The models underestimated mortality in the lower risk bands and overestimated mortality in the higher risk bands. In contrast, POSSUM predicted morbidity well with O:E ratios close to unity in most risk bands. The areas under the ROC curves for the scoring systems was 0.60‐0.67.

Conclusion

The POSSUM score and NHFS show moderate calibration and poor discrimination in this cohort. The results suggest that mortality and morbidity in hip fracture patients are largely dependent on factors that are not included in these scores.     

改良POSSUM评分系统在预测老年人股骨粗隆间骨折手术风险中的应用价值

目的 探讨应用POSSUM评分系统预测老年人股骨粗降间骨折术后病死率及并发症发牛率的价值.方法 2007年1月至2008年12月回顾性分析119例老年股骨粗隆间骨折患者,按照适用于骨科的改良型POSSUM评分系统评估量表对每例患者进行生理学评分及手术严重度评分,将数据代人原始POSSUM回归公式计算出术后死亡概率及术后并发症发生概率,据此概率计算出预测死亡人数和发生并发症人数,并与观察到的实际死亡人数和发生并发症人数进行比较.结果 POSSUM评分系统预测术后30 d内42例(35.3%)发生并发症,实际发生并发症39例(32.8%),(χ2=0.168,P=0.682);预测术后30 d内死亡11例(9.2%),实际死亡5例(4.2%)(χ2=2.412,P=0.120).结论 改良POSSUM评分系统能较好的预测老年患者股骨粗隆间骨折术后30 d内的并发症发生率及病死率,对于高危患者(预测病死率>20%)的预测结果更加准确;其生理学评分量表可用于老年股骨粗隆间骨折患者的术前评估;肺部疾病是导致老年股骨粗隆间骨折患者术后死亡的首要因素.     

Evaluation of outcome of laparoscopic colorectal resection with POSSUM, Portsmouth POSSUM and colorectal POSSUM

BACKGROUND: This study evaluated the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM), Portsmouth (P) POSSUM and colorectal (CR) POSSUM in laparoscopic colorectal resection. METHODS: Observed mortality and morbidity rates in 400 patients who underwent laparoscopic colorectal resection were compared with those predicted by POSSUM, P-POSSUM and CR-POSSUM. RESULTS: Observed mortality and morbidity rates were 0.5 and 19.0 per cent respectively. Mortality rates predicted by POSSUM, P-POSSUM and CR-POSSUM were 10.8, 4.0 and 5.6 per cent respectively, and the morbidity rate predicted by POSSUM was 43.0 per cent. The predicted and observed mortality and morbidity rates showed significant lack of fit. The conversion rate to open surgery was 11.5 per cent. The mortality rate for patients having conversion was 2 per cent and was not significantly different to that predicted by P-POSSUM (4 per cent; P = 0.493) or CR-POSSUM (5 per cent; P = 0.370). In this group, the observed and POSSUM-predicted morbidity rates were also similar (43 versus 48 per cent respectively; P = 0.104). CONCLUSION: POSSUM, P-POSSUM and CR-POSSUM overestimated mortality and morbidity in patients who underwent laparoscopic colorectal resection. However, the mortality rate in patients who required conversion fitted the models of P-POSSUM and CR-POSSUM, and the morbidity rate was comparable to that predicted by POSSUM.     

A comparison of the mortality rate after elective repair of aortic aneurysms detected either by screening or incidentally.

OBJECTIVE: to compare predicted and actual mortality rates, using POSSUM scoring, after elective repair of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) detected from the Gloucestershire Aneurysm Screening Programme and those discovered incidentally. METHODS: a sample of 276 men undergoing elective AAA repair in Gloucestershire between 1991 and 1998 was studied. AAAs were either detected from the screening programme or were discovered incidentally and referred from other sources. Mortality data relating to these patients have been recorded prospectively. POSSUM scoring was performed retrospectively from patients> notes in both groups and related to outcome (30 day and in-hospital mortality). POSSUM and P-POSSUM methodology were used to compare observed and predicted mortality rates. RESULTS: in the 276 men who had elective AAA repair, the overall mortality rate was 7%. Mortality was lower in screen-detected AAAs (3/111, 3%) than AAAs discovered incidentally (16/175, 9%) (p=0.05). Preoperative physiology scores were significantly lower in men with a screen-detected AAA (median 19, range 13-29 versus 21, 12-41, p<0.001). POSSUM operative scores were similar between the groups. Actual versus predicted death ratios in the sample group were more accurate using POSSUM (ratio 0.93) than P-POSSUM (2.38) analysis. CONCLUSIONS: men with a screen-detected AAA had a lower mortality rate after elective repair than in those detected incidentally; lower preoperative physiology scores suggested they were fitter (as well as younger). In this study POSSUM analysis more accurately predicted outcome than P-POSSUM.     

Safe laparoscopic surgery in the elderly

BACKGROUND: The elderly are more prone to complications of surgery because of comorbidity, and they may benefit most from a minimally invasive approach. This study was intended to evaluate the safety of the use of a laparoscopic approach for emergency and elective surgery in elderly patients. METHODS: From January 2000 to June 2001, all patients over 75 years of age who underwent a procedure that began laparoscopically were included. Physiologic and operative scores according to the POSSUM scoring system were recorded. These were then used to calculate predicted morbidity and mortality by both the POSSUM and P-POSSUM systems. Predicted outcomes were compared with actual outcomes. RESULTS: One hundred sixty-two patients with a mean age of 80 years were included; 52% were emergency cases. The overall morbidity was 14.5% and the mortality rate was 1.8%. Fourteen procedures (8.4%), all emergencies, were converted. Both mortality and morbidity rates were lower than the predicted values (P = 0.001 and P = 0.0001, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: A laparoscopic approach can be used safely in an elderly population undergoing surgery in a daily practice for miscellaneous conditions, whether elective or emergency operations.