The treatment of common mental health problems in general practice

BACKGROUND: Previous studies report GPs under-treat mental health disorders, particularly depression, and treatments are non-specific and lack an evidence base. They conclude further training and education of GP's is required. OBJECTIVE: To describe the treatment of common mental health disorders in relation to the level and severity of psychological problems as defined by the GP and external assessment. METHODS: Cross sectional survey of General Practice attenders in New Zealand. Fifty consecutive adult patients were recruited from each practice of 70 randomly selected GP's. The psychological status of 773 respondents selected via the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ) was assessed, and details of management provided. Management options were compared with the level of psychological problem identified by the GP. RESULTS: Treatment varied depending on the level of problem identification, and frequency of consultation, from 93% given treatment when an explicit diagnosis was made to 22.3% in patients with subclinical symptoms. The most commonly given treatment with an explicit diagnosis was psychotropic medication [73% (95% CI 63.6-82.9)] while for those patients with subclinical symptoms the most common form of treatment was discussion and counselling [15.7% (7.1-24.2)]. Only 1.7% (0.3-3.0) of patients with subclinical symptoms received psychotropics. CONCLUSION: There is a clear association between the level of psychological problem identified and treatment. In contrast to previous views that treatment often appears to be given regardless of diagnosis, these results provide a picture of general practice management of common mental disorders more in line with evidence-based practice than previously described.     

Early predictors of need for remediation in the Australian general practice training program: a retrospective cohort study

Underperforming trainees requiring remediation may threaten patient safety and are challenging for vocational training programs. Decisions to institute remediation are high-stakes—remediation being resource-intensive and emotionally demanding on trainees. Detection of underperformance requiring remediation is particularly problematic in general (family) practice. We sought to establish early-training assessment instruments predictive of general practice (GP) trainees’ subsequently requiring formal remediation. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of trainees from a large Australian regionally-based GP training organization. The outcome factor was requirement for formal remediation. Independent variables were demographic factors and a range of formative assessments conducted immediately prior to or during early-stage training. Analyses employed univariate and multivariate logistic regression of each predictor assessment modality with the outcome, adjusting for potential confounders. Of 248 trainees, 26 (10.5 %) required formal remediation. Performance on the Colleague Feedback Evaluation Tool (entailing feedback from a trainee’s clinical colleagues on clinical performance, communication and probity) and External Clinical Teaching Visits (half-day sessions of the trainee’s clinical consultations observed directly by an experienced GP), along with non-Australian primary medical qualification, were significantly associated with requiring remediation. There was a non-significant trend for association with performance on the Doctors Interpersonal Skills Questionnaire (patient feedback on interpersonal elements of the consultation). There were no significant associations with entry-selection scores or formative exam or assessment scores. Our finding that ‘in vivo’ assessments of complex behaviour, but not ‘in vitro’ knowledge-based assessments, predict need for remediation is consistent with theoretical understanding of the nature of remediation decision-making and should inform remediation practice in GP vocational training.     

Evaluating a program of psychological interventions in primary health care: consumer distress, disability and service usage

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate a Better Outcomes of Mental Health Care Access to Allied Psychological Services Program for general practice patients referred for high-prevalence mental disorders. METHODS: Participants were South Australian general practitioners (GPs; n=26) and their patients referred for treatment of high-prevalence psychological disorders, of whom 229 provided baseline measures, 106 provided post-treatment measures, and 85 provided follow-up data three months after termination of treatment. Interventions were Focused Psychological Strategies supplied by mental health specialists; outcome variables included GP satisfaction, patient satisfaction, psychological distress, life impairment, and health service usage. RESULTS: Satisfaction with the treatment program was high for both the GPs and the referred patients. Patients who attended three or more treatment sessions showed reduced distress and disability, and gains were maintained three months later. Health service usage declined with acceptance of referral regardless of treatment experience. CONCLUSIONS: Lack of controls and missing data were methodological weaknesses. Results support the effectiveness of integrated primary mental health care to reduce psychological distress and disability, while impact on service usage warrants further investigation. IMPLICATIONS: Reduction of suffering and increased economic productivity may both result from this public health initiative to increase access to effective treatments for common chronic mental conditions.     

The mental health of single homeless people in Northampton hostels

Much research evidence about homelessness and health relates to large population centres with correspondingly large homeless populations. Such results may not necessarily apply to small towns such as Northampton. A local need was identified for information relating to health and access to health care for homeless people.Seventy five single, homeless people temporarily residing at open access hostels in Northampton were interviewed.The interviews covered:

• recent accommodation histories

• recent physical health

• mental health

• access to health care

• current social contacts, life style and aspirations

The General Health Questionnaire (GHQ30) was administered to allow assessment of the levels of mental morbidity in the population studied.The results presented here relate to mental health issues. Current mental health problems were reported by 53% of thesample (40 people); of these only 40% (16 people) were receiving treatment. Three people had been admitted to a psychiatric hospital within the past year. Using standard scoring, the GHQ30 identified as cases 72% (44) of the 61 homeless people who completed the GHQ.It was concluded that levels of mental morbidity were higher in the homeless group than would be expected in the general population. This finding, mirrors those of studies in larger population centres.The main form of access to mental health services appeared to be via hospital admission. Any GP treatment offeredwas likely to be medication. There was no mention of Community Psychiatric Nurse involvement in treatment or care.The results may indicate a significant level of umnet need for mental health intervention amongst the local homeless population.     

Is there value in routinely obtaining a report from the general practitioner as part of pre-entry health screening of students for nursing studies?

BACKGROUND: Reports from general practitioners (GPs) are requested on applicants for nurse training, but there is no published evidence of the merit of this practice. AIMS: To assess the benefit of GP report in health assessments of student nurse applicants. METHODS: An audit was made of information obtained by health declaration form (HDF), nurse's assessment, GP report and, when performed, a physician's assessment for each applicant. Agreement between the health questionnaire and GP report was analysed by kappa statistics. RESULTS: Of 254 applicants, 246 (97%) were declared 'fit to work', four (1.6%) were deemed 'fit with restrictions' and four (1.6%) were considered 'unfit to work'. The most common problems declared were psychiatric and skin problems. The agreement between health declaration and the information provided by GPs was classed as almost perfect for diabetes and only fair to moderate for all other measures. The reports provided additional information on problems not declared by applicants, but all of these were passive problems. The four unfit candidates all had psychiatric illness, but in all cases the occupational health assessment was sufficient to make this decision or to request further information. In the 'fit with restrictions' category, three of the four GP reports (75%) helped in correctly assigning the applicants to this category. In one of these eight cases a passive problem had not been declared. CONCLUSIONS: The additional information in GP reports does not affect the conclusion regarding fitness for training in most cases and does not provide sufficient information to merit it being sought routinely.     

The accuracy of general practitioners’ clinical assessment of chest pain patients

Objective: To study general practitioners’ (GP) assessment of the probability of ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and GP action in daily practice regarding chest pain patients. Methods: All chest pain patients aged 20–79 years, attending three primary health-care centres in south-east Sweden and assessed by the GP to have high, low or very low probability of IHD, were included consecutively over a two year period. The “GP action in daily practice” was classed as “active decisions” (investigation or treatment) or “wait and see”. “IHD” or “not IHD” was settled according to the results of acute hospital investigation or exercise testing/myocardial perfusion scintigraphy. Results: 516 patients were included, 93 high, 145 low and 278 very low probability cases. The outcome was “IHD” in 47%, 9% and 1% respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of the “GP assessment of the probability of IHD” were 72% and 89%. The sensitivity and specificity of the “GP action in daily practice” were 88% and 72%, respectively. The negative predictive value was 98%. Conclusion: GP assessment, after clinical evaluation, that the probability of IHD was low did not safely rule out IHD. GP action in daily practice however, indicates that general practice is an appropriate level of care for chest pain patients.     

Stress at work and mental health status among female hospital workers.

Relations between working conditions and mental health status of female hospital workers were studied in a sample of 1505 women: 43% were nurses, 32% auxiliaries, and 7% ancillary staff; 13% were other qualified health care staff, mainly head nurses; 5% had occupations other than direct health care; 63% worked on the morning, 20% on the afternoon, and 17% on the night shift. Data were collected at the annual routine medical visit by the occupational health practitioner, using self administered questionnaires and clinical assessments. Five health indicators were considered: a high score to the general health questionnaire (GHQ); fatigue; sleep impairment; use of antidepressants, sleeping pills, or sedatives; and diagnosis of psychiatric morbidity at clinical assessment. Four indices of stress at work were defined: job stress, mental load, insufficiency in internal training and discussion, and strain caused by schedule. The analysis was conducted by multiple logistic regression, controlling for type of occupation, shift, number of years of work in hospital, daily travel time to work, age, marital status, number of children, and wish to move house. Sleep impairment was mostly linked to shift and strain due to schedule. For all other indicators of mental health impairment and especially high GHQ scores, the adjusted odds ratios increased significantly with the levels of job stress, mental load, and strain due to schedule. This evidence of association between work involving an excessive cumulation of stress factors and mental wellbeing should be considered in interventions aimed at improving the working conditions of hospital workers.     

Effects of screening for disorders among the elderly: an intervention study in general practice

BACKGROUND: Preventive assessment of prevalent disorders may be considered as an instrument to maintain independence in the elderly. However, the outcomes of studies on these types of screening differ considerably regarding their effects. OBJECTIVES: The aim of the present study was to assess the effects of GPs' screening of the elderly on four highly prevalent disorders with possibilities for treatment: hearing and visual disorders, urinary incontinence and mobility disorders. METHODS: In an intervention study in 12 general practices, 1121 subjects aged 75 years and over were screened. Randomization was done by practice into an intervention group (576) and a control group (545). In the intervention group, all elderly patients were screened for the four disorders during the first year of the study. When the GP and patient agreed on intervention, usual care was provided by the GP. The patients in the control group were not screened in the first year. In the second year, all patients in both groups were screened for the four disorders. RESULTS: For none of the four disorders was a measurable effect of the screening at the population level found. In the first year, 1013 new disorders were found involving 479 of 576 people. The GPs considered information to be new in 293 cases. In 245 cases (out of 293), the GP discussed the new information with the patient. Of the 89 cases in which the patient agreed with an intervention, improvement was reported in 17 cases. CONCLUSIONS: Implementing a standardized screening programme for four highly prevalent disorders for elderly people is not recommended. Preventive assessment of the elderly should be applied in ways other than by screening. Preventive care should pay attention to the individual needs of the elderly, should be started before the age of 75 years and should be offered in a flexible way.     

Stress at work and mental health status among female hospital workers

Relations between working conditions and mental health status of female hospital workers were studied in a sample of 1505 women: 43% were nurses, 32% auxiliaries, and 7% ancillary staff; 13% were other qualified health care staff, mainly head nurses; 5% had occupations other than direct health care; 63% worked on the morning, 20% on the afternoon, and 17% on the night shift. Data were collected at the annual routine medical visit by the occupational health practitioner, using self administered questionnaires and clinical assessments. Five health indicators were considered: a high score to the general health questionnaire (GHQ); fatigue; sleep impairment; use of antidepressants, sleeping pills, or sedatives; and diagnosis of psychiatric morbidity at clinical assessment. Four indices of stress at work were defined: job stress, mental load, insufficiency in internal training and discussion, and strain caused by schedule. The analysis was conducted by multiple logistic regression, controlling for type of occupation, shift, number of years of work in hospital, daily travel time to work, age, marital status, number of children, and wish to move house. Sleep impairment was mostly linked to shift and strain due to schedule. For all other indicators of mental health impairment and especially high GHQ scores, the adjusted odds ratios increased significantly with the levels of job stress, mental load, and strain due to schedule. This evidence of association between work involving an excessive cumulation of stress factors and mental wellbeing should be considered in interventions aimed at improving the working conditions of hospital workers.     

Case-finding of dementia in general practice and effects of subsequent collaborative care; design of a cluster RCT

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: In the primary care setting, dementia is often diagnosed relatively late in the disease process. Case finding and proactive collaborative care may have beneficial effects on both patient and informal caregiver by clarifying the cause of cognitive decline and changed behaviour and by enabling support, care planning and access to services.We aim to improve the recognition and diagnosis of individuals with dementia in general practice. In addition to this diagnostic aim, the effects of case finding and subsequent care on the mental health of individuals with dementia and the mental health of their informal carers are explored.Methods and designDesign cluster randomised controlled trial with process evaluation.Participants: 162 individuals[THIN SPACE][GREATER-THAN OR EQUAL TO][THIN SPACE]65 years, in 15 primary care practices, in whom GPs suspect cognitive impairment, but without a dementia diagnosis.Intervention; case finding and collaborative care: 2 trained practice nurses (PNs) invite all patients with suspected cognitive impairment for a brief functional and cognitive screening. If the cognitive tests are supportive of cognitive impairment, individuals are referred to their GP for further evaluation. If dementia is diagnosed, a comprehensive geriatric assessment takes place to identify other relevant geriatric problems that need to be addressed. Furthermore, the team of GP and PN provide information and support.Control: GPs provide care and diagnosis as usual.Main study parameters: after 12 months both groups are compared on: 1) incident dementia (and MCI) diagnoses and 2) patient and caregiver quality of life (QoL-AD; EQ5D) and mental health (MH5; GHQ 12) and caregiver competence to care (SSCQ). The process evaluation concerns facilitating and impeding factors to the implementation of this intervention. These factors are assessed on the care provider level, the care recipient level and on the organisational level. DISCUSSION: This study will provide insight into the diagnostic yield and the clinical effects of case finding and collaborative care for individuals with suspected cognitive impairment, compared to usual care. A process evaluation will give insight into the feasibility of this intervention.The first results are expected in the course of 2013. Trial registration: NTR3389.     

Fifteen year olds at risk of parasuicide or suicide: how can we identify them in general practice?

BACKGROUND: Within most western countries, suicide is the second leading cause of death amongst adolescents. OBJECTIVES: This paper aims to help GPs identify 15-year-old adolescents at increased risk from parasuicide and suicide. METHODS: The authors reviewed the case notes of 2359 fifteen year olds from 34 randomly selected general practices. Subjects were divided into two groups: (i) those who had made a suicide attempt at age 15; and (ii) those who had made no suicide attempt at age 15. The main outcome measures were the differences between those who had made a suicide attempt and those who had not with respect to GP consulting rates and reasons for consulting. RESULTS: The 26 subjects (1%) who had attempted suicide at age 15 consulted their GP four times per year compared with 2.3 times for those who had not attempted suicide. Twice as many adolescents who had attempted suicide consulted for upper respiratory tract infection (URTI), and nearly nine times as many consulted more than once for mental health concerns. The average attendance rate for those who had attempted suicide was greater than for those in the control comparison group who consulted their GP for mental health concerns; the attendance rate of those in the control group who had not consulted for mental health issues was lower still. CONCLUSIONS: (i) Fifteen year olds more at risk from parasuicide can be found amongst frequent attenders at general practice. (ii) Consulting more than once for mental health concerns or URTI where there are no physical signs could be an indicator of suicide risk.     

An inner city GP unit versus conventional care for elderly patients: prospective comparison of health functioning, use of services and patient satisfaction

BACKGROUND: GP units are generally nurse-led wards, where GPs have direct admitting rights and retain clinical responsibility for their patients. While GP-led wards are not new, they are relatively uncommon in urban areas. In addition, there has been little comparative evaluation of this type of service. OBJECTIVES: The aim of the present study was to compare patients admitted to an inner city GP unit with comparable patients in conventional care (e.g. district nursing, nursing/residential homes, acute care of the elderly wards) in terms of mental and physical functioning, use of health and social services and patient satisfaction. METHODS: Study group patients were those admitted to the GP unit; comparison group patients were identified by GP practices or conventional services who had agreed to participate in the study. Suitable patients were aged 65 years or over and fitted the eligibility criteria for the GP unit. Patients were interviewed at three time points: admission to either the GP unit or conventional care, and at 1 and 3 months after admission. Baseline comparability was assessed by demographic and medical data, cognitive function, mental state, social support, use of health and social services, and mental and physical functioning (SF-12). Mental and physical functioning and use of health and social services were compared between the groups over time. Patient satisfaction with their care was also compared between groups. RESULTS: Change in the mental and physical functioning between patients on the GP unit (n = 67) and those in conventional care (n = 60) did not differ when the groups were compared at any of the three time points. However, the mental function of patients in the GP unit significantly improved between admission and 1 month after admission (P: < 0.05). This effect was not sustained at 3 months after admission. GP unit patients were consistently more positive about the care they received than patients receiving conventional care; this included communication and information, staff, care and the facilities. Both groups of patients were high users of health and social services, with similar patterns of use in both groups, which did not alter over time. CONCLUSIONS: Patients who received care on the GP unit experienced a similar physical outcome to patients in conventional settings; however, they appeared to enjoy a short-term improvement in mental functioning and were consistently more positive about the quality of their care. This study has important policy implications with regard to planning future intermediate care services and will be of particular interest to health service planners and those responsible for clinical governance.     

Smoking and mental health: cross-sectional and cohort studies in an occupational setting in Japan

BACKGROUND: The relationship between smoking and mental health remains unclear. METHODS: We carried out a cross-sectional study and a cohort study on the possible association of smoking and mental health in 782 workers. Using a questionnaire including the 30-item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-30) and items related to the smoking state, the association between smoking and mental health was evaluated separately in males and females. The subjects were classified into smokers and nonsmokers, and changes in the GHQ score during a 2-year follow-up period were evaluated. To control potential confounding factors, multiple regression analyses were performed. RESULTS: The cross-sectional study showed no difference in the GHQ score between smokers and nonsmokers among males but a significantly higher GHQ score for smokers than nonsmokers among females. This difference among females was confirmed to be significant by multiple regression analysis. The 2-year cohort study showed a decrease in the GHQ score in each group and no reduction in the difference in the GHQ score between smokers and nonsmokers among females. CONCLUSIONS: No difference was observed in mental health between smokers and nonsmokers in males. However, in females, smokers showed poorer mental health than nonsmokers, and this difference remained unchanged even after 2 years.     

The relationships of sleep duration and mental health with electrocardiographic findings: a retrospective-cohort study in Okinawa,Japan

Objectives  Sleep disorders and psychological stress have become major concerns as health risks in modern Japanese society. Chronic sleep deprivation could lead to physical and mental exhaustion, which could affect the circulatory condition. In this study, we have investigated the effects of long-term sleep problems and mental health conditions on abnormal ECG findings from the standpoint of community health. Methods  Data were obtained from the records of community physical checkups conducted in a town in Okinawa from 1993 to 2001. Data regarding average sleep duration and the 12-item version of the general health questionnaire (GHQ) were also collected at the community physical checkups. In order to compute the odds ratio of electrocardiographic (ECG) findings according to mental health condition and sleep duration, we conducted multivariate analysis using logistic regression maneuvers. Results  There was a significant difference of average GHQ scores according to sleep duration, with shorter sleep duration (≤6 h) correlating with poorer GHQ and longer sleep duration (≥8 h) correlating with healthier GHQ (p < 0.05). In the multivariate logistic regression analysis among subjects with poorer GHQ, shorter sleep duration showed significantly high odds ratio (OR = 7.14) for abnormal ECG findings. Conclusions  The present study suggested that the mental health condition appears to impact ECG results indirectly through its strong association with sleep duration and provided ground for suggestion that mental health items to be included in community physical checkup examination items.     

Annual health assessments for older Australian women: uptake and equity

OBJECTIVE: To measure utilisation of Enhanced Primary Care (EPC) health assessment items for women aged 75 years and over, and to describe health and socio-demographic characteristics of users and non-users. METHOD: Analysis of longitudinal survey and Medicare claims data from women in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health (ALSWH) aged 75 to 78 years when EPC items were introduced and who provided permission to access their Medicare records for the period 1999-2003 (n = 4,646). RESULTS: There was an increase in uptake of assessments over four years: from November 1999, 12% of eligible women had a health assessment during the following year; by October 2003, 49% had at least one health assessment ever. Few had repeat assessments. Women who visited a GP more often and who were satisfied with the number of GPs available were more likely to have an assessment in the first 12 months, and women who visited a GP more often, those taking more medications, and those caring for another were more likely to have at least one assessment in four years. Women in smaller rural and remote areas were less likely to have an assessment than women in urban areas. CONCLUSIONS: Most women are not having annual assessments and there is some geographic inequity.     

Doctor scores on national qualifying examinations predict quality of care in future practice

Objectives This study aimed to determine if national licensing examinations that measure medical knowledge (QE1) and clinical skills (QE2) predict the quality of care delivered by doctors in future practice. Methods Cohorts of doctors who took the Medical Council of Canada Qualifying Examinations Part I (QE1) and Part II (QE2) between 1993 and 1996 and subsequently entered practice in Ontario, Canada (n = 2420) were followed for their first 7–10 years in practice. The 208 of these doctors who were randomly selected for peer assessment of quality of care were studied. Main outcome measures included quality of care (acceptable/unacceptable) as assessed by doctor peer‐examiners using a structured chart review and interview. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine if qualifying examination scores predicted the outcome of the peer assessments while controlling for age, sex, training and specialty, and if the addition of the QE2 scores provided additional prediction of quality of care. Results Fifteen (7.2%) of the 208 doctors assessed were considered to provide unacceptable quality of care. Doctors in the bottom quartile of QE1 scores had a greater than three‐fold increase in the risk of an unacceptable quality‐of‐care assessment outcome (odds ratio [OR] 3.41, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.14–10.22). Doctors in the bottom quartile of QE2 scores were also at higher risk of being assessed as providing unacceptable quality of care (OR 4.24, 95% CI 1.32–13.61). However, QE2 results provided no significant improvement in predicting peer assessment results over QE1 results (likelihood ratio test: χ² = 3.21, P‐value_{(1 d.f.)} = 0.07). Conclusions Doctor scores on qualifying examinations are significant predictors of quality‐of‐care problems based on regulatory, practice‐based peer assessment.     

Cost-effectiveness of an activating intervention by social workers for patients with minor mental disorders on sick leave: a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Sickness absence often occurs in patients with emotional distress or minor mental disorders. In several European countries, these patients are over-represented among those receiving illness benefits, and interventions are needed. The aim of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of an intervention conducted by social workers, designed to reduce sick leave duration in patients absent from work owing to emotional distress or minor mental disorders. METHODS: In this Randomized Controlled Trial, patients were recruited by GPs. The intervention group (N = 98) received an activating, structured treatment by social workers, the control group (N = 96) received routine GP care. Sick leave duration, clinical symptoms, and medical consumption (consumption of medical staffs' time as well as consumption of drugs) were measured at baseline and 3, 6, and 18 months later. RESULTS: Neither for sick leave duration nor for clinical improvement over time were significant differences found between the groups. Also the associated costs were not significantly lower in the intervention group. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with usual GP care, the activating social work intervention was not superior in reducing sick leave duration, improving clinical symptoms, and decreasing medical consumption. It was also not cost-effective compared with GP routine care in the treatment of minor mental disorders. Therefore, further implementation of the intervention is not justified. Potentially, programmes aimed at reducing sick leave duration in patients with minor mental disorders carried out closer to the workplace (e.g. by occupational physicians) are more successful than programmes in primary care.     

Long-term prognosis of acute low back pain in patients seen in general practice: a 1-year prospective follow-up study.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to examine the prognosis of acute low back pain (LBP) in patients in general practice and to identify prognostic factors associated with the long-term prognosis based on information immediately available to the GP. METHOD: We conducted a prospective cohort study in general practice in Denmark. The patients were those aged 18-60 years consulting their GP due to an episode of LBP lasting less than 2 weeks. The GPs collected data regarding 34 exposure variables, including their global assessment of the likelihood of chronic LBP. Outcome variables were collected from the patients after 1, 6 and 12 months. The outcome measures were days on sick leave, and functional or complete recovery from LBP. RESULTS: In total, 503 (96%) patients were followed during the whole study period. Fifty per cent of the patients on sick leave returned to work within 8 days; after 1 year, only 2% remained on sick leave. At the 1-year follow-up, 45% of the patients continued to complain of LBP. Logistic regression analyses showed that the factors most significantly associated with poor long-term LBP outcome were (i) severity of LBP at inclusion, (ii) assessments by the GP of susceptibility to develop chronic LBP and (iii) a history of LBP having caused previous sick leave. CONCLUSIONS: LBP in general practice has a good prognosis with regard to sick leave, but a high proportion of patients continue to complain of LBP. We were not able to identify objective measures that strongly predict the prognosis of the individual LBP patient. The overall assessment by the GPs seems to be the most important predictor associated with the long-term outcome.