Decision-analytical model with lifetime estimation of costs and health outcomes for one-time screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm in 65-year-old men

BACKGROUND: Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) causes about 2 per cent of all deaths in men over the age of 65 years. A major improvement in operative mortality would have little impact on total mortality, so screening for AAA has been recommended as a solution. The cost-effectiveness of a programme that invited 65-year-old men for ultrasonographic screening was compared with current clinical practice in a decision-analytical model. METHODS: In a probabilistic Markov model, costs and health outcomes of a screening programme and current clinical practice were simulated over a lifetime perspective. To populate the model with the best available evidence, data from published papers, vascular databases and primary research were used. RESULTS: The results of the base-case analysis showed that the incremental cost per gained life-year for a screening programme compared with current practice was 7760, and that for a quality-adjusted life-year was 9700. The probability of screening being cost-effective was high. CONCLUSION: A financially and practically feasible screening programme for AAA, in which men are invited for ultrasonography in the year in which they turn 65, appears to yield positive health outcomes at a reasonable cost.     

Cost-effectiveness of conventional and endovascular repair of abdominal aortic aneurysms: results of a randomized trial

BACKGROUND: Two randomized trials have shown similar mid-term outcomes for survival and quality of life after endovascular and conventional open repair of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA). With reduced hospital and intensive care stay, endovascular repair has been hypothesized to be more efficient than open repair. The Dutch Randomized Endovascular Aneurysm Management (DREAM) trial was undertaken to assess the balance of costs and effects of endovascular vs open aneurysm repair. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter, randomized trial comparing endovascular repair with open repair in 351 patients with an AAA and studied costs, cost-effectiveness, and clinical outcome 1 year after surgery. In addition to clinical outcome, costs and quality of life were recorded up to 1 year in 170 patients in the endovascular repair group and in 170 in the open repair group. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were estimated for cost per life-year, event-free life-year, and quality adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Uncertainty regarding these outcomes was assessed using bootstrapping. RESULTS: Patients in the endovascular repair group experienced 0.72 QALY vs 0.73 in the open repair group (absolute difference, 0.01; 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.038 to 0.058). Endovascular repair was associated with additional euro 4293 direct costs (euro 18,179 vs euro 13.886; 95% CI, euro 2,770 to euro 5,830). Most of the bootstrap estimates indicated that endovascular repair resulted in slightly longer overall and event-free survival associated with respective incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of euro76,100 and euro 171,500 per year gained. Open repair appeared the dominant strategy in costs per QALY. CONCLUSION: Presently, routine use of endovascular repair in patients also eligible for open repair does not result in a QALY gain at 1 year postoperatively, provides only a marginal overall survival benefit, and is associated with a substantial, if not prohibitive, increase in costs.     

Effectiveness and cost of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm: results of a population screening program

OBJECTIVES: We undertook this study to calculate the cost per life-year gained in the first round of a screening program for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) and to estimate the costs in a subsequent round. METHODS: This was an intervention study, with follow-up for ruptured aneurysms. Men older than 50 years were screened for asymptomatic AAA. Outcome measures included cost per life-year saved and number of men needed to be screened to save one life. RESULTS: The incidence of ruptured AAA was 2.6 per 10,000 person- years in the screening group and 7.1 per 10,000 person-years in the control group. Screening is estimated to have prevented 10.8 ruptured AAA and 8 deaths per year, gaining 51 life-years per year for the study population, and to have reduced the incidence of ruptured AAA by 64% (95% CI, 42%-77%). Each life-year gained during the first screening round cost $1107. To save one life, 1000 men need to be screened and 5 elective operations performed. We predict that a second round of screening can be cost neutral. CONCLUSIONS: The cost-effectiveness of screening for AAA compares favorably with screening programs for other disorders in adults.     

Cost-effectiveness of different screening strategies for abdominal aortic aneurysm

OBJECTIVE: The primary objective of this study was to develop a simulation model to assess the cost-effectiveness of different screening strategies for abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) in men. METHODS: A systematic review of the literature was conducted for different screening strategies in terms of age (60, 65, or 70 years) and risk profiles (all men or specific high-risk groups) of the screened population, and rescreening after 5 or 10 years. These data were analyzed in a Markov simulation cohort model. RESULTS: The cost per life year gained for different screening strategies ranged from US 8,309 dollars to US 14,084 dollars and was estimated at US 10,474 dollars when 65-year-old men were screened once. Screening 60-year-old men was equally cost-effective, with the advantage of more life years gained. We demonstrated a trade-off between high prevalence of AAA and lower life expectancy, eliminating the expected benefits of screening high-risk groups such as smokers (US 10,695 dollars) or cardiovascular patients (US 10,392 dollars). Assuming general population utility resulted in a cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained of US 13,900 dollars, whereas a hypothetical 5% reduction in utility among men with a screening-detected AAA raised the cost per QALY gained to US 75,100 dollars. CONCLUSION: This Markov model, which was based on a systematic review of the literature, supplied information on the estimated cost-effectiveness of different screening strategies. Screening men for AAA may be cost-effective in the long-term. Different screening strategies and quality-of-life effects related to screening for AAA need to be evaluated in future clinical studies.     

Screening for abdominal aortic aneurysms in men: a Canadian perspective using Monte Carlo–based estimates

Objective

Recently generated randomized screening trial data have provided good evidence in favour of routine screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) to reduce AAA-related deaths in men aged 65 years and older. We developed an economic model that assessed the incremental cost–utility of AAA screening to help decision makers judge the relevance of a national screening program in Canada.

Methods

We constructed a 14 health state Markov model comparing 2 cohorts of 65-year-old men, where the first cohort was invited to attend screening for AAA using ultrasonography (US) and the second cohort followed the current practice of opportunistic detection. Lifetime outcomes included the life-years gained, AAA rupture avoided, AAA-related mortality, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and costs. Transition probabilities were derived from a systematic review of the literature, and a probabilistic sensitivity analysis was carried out to examine the effect of joint uncertainty in the variables of our analysis. The perspective adopted was that of the health care provider.

Results

Invitations to attend screening produced an undiscounted gain in life expectancy of 0.049 years and a gain in discounted QALY of 0.019 for an estimated incremental lifetime cost of CAN$118. The estimated incremental cost–utility ratio was CAN$6194 per QALY gained (95% confidence interval [CI] 1892–10 837). The numbers needed to invite to attend screening, and the numbers needed to screen to prevent 1 AAA-related death were 187 (95% CI 130–292) and 137 (95% CI 85–213), respectively. The acceptability curve showed a greater than 95% probability of the program''s being cost-effective, and the model was robust to changes in the values of key parameters within plausible ranges.

Conclusion

Our results support the economic viability of a national screening program for men reaching 65 years of age in Canada. More clinical studies are needed to define the role of screening in subgroups at high risk, especially in the female population.     

Cost-effectiveness of screening for hepatopulmonary syndrome in liver transplant candidates.

The hepatopulmonary syndrome (HPS) is present in 15-20% of patients with cirrhosis undergoing orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) evaluation. Both preoperative and post-OLT mortality is increased in HPS patients particularly when hypoxemia is severe. Screening for HPS could enhance detection of OLT candidates with sufficient hypoxemia to merit higher priority for transplant and thereby decrease mortality. However, the cost-effectiveness of such an approach has not been assessed. Our objective was to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis from a third-party payer's perspective of screening for HPS in liver OLT candidates. The costs and outcomes of 3 different strategies were compared: (1) no screening, (2) screening patients with a validated dyspnea questionnaire, and (3) screening all patients with pulse oximetry. Arterial blood gas analyses and contrast echocardiography were performed in patients with dyspnea or a pulse oximetry (SpO(2)) < or =97% to define the presence of HPS. A Markov model was constructed simulating the natural history of cirrhosis in a cohort of patients 50 years old over a time horizon of their remaining life expectancy. Transition probabilities were obtained from published data available through Medline and U.S. vital statistics. Costs represented Medicare reimbursement data at our institution. Costs and health effects were discounted at a 3% annual rate. No screening was associated with a total cost of 291,898 dollars and a life expectancy of 11.131 years. Screening with pulse oximetry was associated with a cost of 299,719 dollars and a life expectancy of 12.27 years. Screening patients with the dyspnea-fatigue index was associated with a cost and life expectancy of 300,278 dollars and 12.28 years, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of screening with pulse oximetry (compared to no screening) was 6,867 dollars per life year gained, whereas that of the dyspnea-fatigue index (compared to pulse oximetry) was 55,900 dollars per life year gained. The cost-effectiveness of screening depended on the prevalence and severity of HPS, and the choice of screening strategy was dependent on the sensitivity of the screening modality. In conclusion, screening for HPS, especially with pulse oximetry, is a cost-effective strategy that improves survival in transplant candidates predominantly by targeting the transplant to the subgroup of patients most likely to benefit. The utility of screening depends on the prevalence and severity of HPS in the target population.     

Cost-effectiveness of screening women for abdominal aortic aneurysm

BACKGROUND: Women are usually not considered for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) screening because of their lower prevalence of disease. This position may, however, be questioned given the higher risk of rupture and the longer life expectancy among women. The purpose of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of screening 65-year-old women for AAA. METHODS: A systematic review of the literature was conducted to obtain data of importance to evaluate the effectiveness of screening women for AAA. Data were entered into a Markov simulation cohort model. RESULTS: The review suggested some main assumptions for women with AAA. Prevalence is 1.1%. In 6.8%, the AAA is of a size that merits surgery, and the patients are fit for a procedure. For patients with an AAA, the yearly risk for elective surgery and the rupture incidence was 3.1% and 2.4%, respectively, in the invited group and 1.1% and 5.7% in the noninvited group. The operative mortality for elective surgery was 3.5%, and the total mortality for ruptured AAA was 86.3%. The long-term mortality for AAA patients was 3.6 times higher than for an age-matched healthy population. Screening reduced the AAA rupture incidence by 33% and the AAA-related death rate by 35%. The cost per life year gained was estimated at $5911. CONCLUSION: The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was similar to that found for screening men, which reflects the fact that the lower AAA prevalence in women is balanced by a higher rupture rate. Screening women for AAA may be cost-effective, and future evaluations on screening for AAA should include women.     

Is screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm bad for your health and well‐being?

BACKGROUND: The purpose of the present paper was to investigate whether screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) causes health-related quality of life to change in men or their partners. METHODS: A cross-sectional case-control comparison was undertaken of men aged 65-83 years living in Perth, Western Australia, using questionnaires incorporating three validated instruments (Medical Outcomes Study Short Form-36, EuroQol EQ-5D and Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale) as well as several independent questions about quality of life. The 2009 men who attended for ultrasound scans of the abdominal aorta completed a short prescreening questionnaire about their perception of their general health. Four hundred and ninety-eight men (157 with an AAA and 341 with a normal aorta) were sent two questionnaires for completion 12 months after screening, one for themselves and one for their partner, each being about the quality of life of the respondent. RESULTS: Men with an AAA were more limited in performing physical activities than those with a normal aorta (t-test of means P = 0.04). After screening, men with an AAA were significantly less likely to have current pain or discomfort than those with a normal aorta (multivariate odds ratio: 0.5; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.3-0.9) and reported fewer visits to their doctor. The mean level of self-perceived general health increased for all men from before to after screening (from 63.4 to 65.4). CONCLUSIONS: Apart from physical functioning, screening was not associated with decreases in health and well-being. A high proportion of men rated their health over the year after screening as being either the same or improved, regardless of whether or not they were found to have an AAA.     

Implications of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysms on surgical workload

BACKGROUND: The Multicentre Aneurysm Screening Study (MASS) provided strong evidence for both the clinical benefit and the cost-effectiveness of a screening programme for abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) in men. If a national screening programme for AAA were adopted in the UK, it would be expected to increase the elective and decrease the emergency surgical workload. METHODS: The MASS trial randomized 67,800 men aged 65-74 years to be invited to attend for ultrasonographic screening for AAA or to a control group that received no invitation. Predictions of elective and emergency surgical workload were made for a 20-year interval after the introduction of a screening programme for 65-year-old men, based on surgical rates observed in the MASS trial and national mortality statistics. RESULTS: For a district general hospital serving a population of 400,000, there was an estimated reduction from nine emergency operations per year before introduction of the screening programme to three emergency operations annually in men aged 65 years and over by the end of the 20-year interval, and an increase from 24 to 43 AAA operations overall. The corresponding estimated annual costs for all AAA surgery increased by 47 per cent, from pound 209,000 to pound 308,000. These results were not affected by changes in the underlying assumptions. CONCLUSION: The results support the expectation of very few emergency operations, and principally elective operations, being performed following the introduction of a screening programme. For a typical district general hospital, a screening programme would be expected to lead to two additional elective AAA operations per month, and to save 11 AAA-related deaths per year.     

Cost-effectiveness analysis of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysms based on five year results from a randomised hospital based mass screening trial.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to estimate the cost effectiveness of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). MATERIAL AND METHODS: All 12,639 men born in the years 1921-1933 (aged 64-73) living in Viborg County, Denmark, were randomly allocated either to receive an invitation to abdominal ultrasound scanning for AAA or to be controls. Costs for screening and surveillance were assessed prospectively. Diagnosis Related Group (DRG) costs from 1999 were used concerning admissions with uncomplicated and complicated operations. Admissions for AAA surgery were retrospectively classified according to complications in patient records. RESULTS: Mean follow-up time was 52 months. 76.6% of invited men attended screening, and 191 (4.0%) had an AAA. As previously reported, the cumulative 5-year AAA-specific mortality in the invited group was significantly reduced by 67% compared to the control group (P = 0.003). The costs were estimated to be Euro 11.23 per scan. The costs per life-year saved were Euro 9057 (Euro 5872-20,063) after 5 years, and were expected to decrease to Euro 2708 (Euro 1758-6031) after 10 years and to Euro 1825 (Euro 1185-4063) after 15 years. CONCLUSION: Screening of 64-73 years old males in Denmark seems cost effective.     

Hospital costs and benefits of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysms. Results from a randomised population screening trial.

OBJECTIVES: to analyse the hospital costs and benefits of screening older males for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). MATERIALS and METHODS: in 1994 a hospital-based screening trial of 12 658 65-73-year-old males was started. AAA >5 cm were referred for surgery. The remaining AAA were offered annual scans. Those with aortic ectasia were rescreened at 5 yearly intervals. AAA-operations and hospital AAA-related deaths were researched. The costs of screening, surveillance, and treatment were also registered. RESULTS: the attendance rate was 76%; of whom 191 (4.0%) had AAA. Mean observation time was 5.13 years. Sixty in the screened and 41 in the control group were operated (p=0.06), of which 7 and 27 respectively were operated as an emergency (p<0.001), and 6 and 19 respectively died due to AAA (p=0.009). The costs per scan were 83.50 DKK, 81 400 DKK per emergency operation (71 485 DKK after screening), and 117 000 DKK per emergency operation. The cost per prevented hospital death was 67 855 DKK, equivalent to approximately life year saved approx. 7540 DKK (GBP1=12 DKK). CONCLUSION: screening appears to reduce hospital AAA mortality and to be cost-effective.     

Lifetime gain related to cost of repair of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm in octogenarians.

OBJECTIVE: To report cost related to gained life years after repair of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms in patients aged 80 or older. DESIGN: A retrospective study based on prospectively registered data. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Fifty-three patients aged 80 or older were operated on for ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm over a 20-year period from 1983 to 2002. Thirty-one (58%) patients had systolic BT <80 mmHg. Operative mortality (<30 days) and long-term survival were studied. The number of life-years gained from the operations was estimated. Based on diagnose related group (DRG) values, the cost of each gained life-year was calculated. RESULTS: The operative mortality was 47%. Long-term survival of those patients who survived the operation was similar to that of an age and sex matched population. The 53 operations resulted in 145 gained life-years, which leaves a mean survival of 2.7 years of all the patients and 5.2 years of those who survived the operation. The estimated cost per gained life year was euro6817. CONCLUSIONS: The operative mortality of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm remains high. The long-term survival of patients who survive the operation is acceptable. The price of each gained life-year is low, as compared to other established treatment modalities. Improved results with endovascular treatment may even decrease the cost per gained life year.     

Psychological consequences of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm and conservative treatment of small abdominal aortic aneurysms.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the potential psychological consequences of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs). METHODS: The participants were prospectively and randomly sampled from a randomised screening trial for AAA and asked to complete a validated generic and global anonymous quality of life (QL) questionnaire by self-assessment (ScreenQL). Material case-control study: ScreenQL was completed once by 168 (48%) of 350 non-responders to screening, 271 (81%) of 335 attenders before screening, 286 (85%) of 335 attenders after screening, 127 (85%) of 149 with a small AAA diagnosed at screening, and 231 (66%) of 350 who were randomised not to be offered screening for AAA (controls). Prospective study (paired data): 127 men having a small AAA diagnosed. Twenty-nine (81%) of 36 men operated after initial conservative treatment. RESULTS: Initially, the QL score was 5% lower among men with a small AAA compared to the controls (p<0.05), mainly because of poorer health perception. The QL score declined significantly further to 7% below control values during the period of conservative treatment. This impairment was mainly due to a 21% and 15% reduction in scores relating to health perception and psychosomatic distress, respectively. However, all scores improved to control levels in patients operated on. The QL of attending men for screening was significantly lower than that of the controls and the attenders after the screening. No differences were noticed concerning the non-attenders. CONCLUSION: The offer of screening causes transient psychological stress in subjects found not to have AAA. However, diagnosis of an AAA seems to impair QL permanently and progressively in conservatively treated cases. This impairment seems reversible by operation. Nevertheless, the impairment seems considerable, and must be considered in the management of AAA and in the final evaluation of screening for AAA.     

Simulation-based cost-utility analysis of population screening-based alendronate use in Switzerland

Summary A simulation model adopting a health system perspective showed population-based screening with DXA, followed by alendronate treatment of persons with osteoporosis, or with anamnestic fracture and osteopenia, to be cost-effective in Swiss postmenopausal women from age 70, but not in men. Introduction We assessed the cost-effectiveness of a population-based screen-and-treat strategy for osteoporosis (DXA followed by alendronate treatment if osteoporotic, or osteopenic in the presence of fracture), compared to no intervention, from the perspective of the Swiss health care system. Methods A published Markov model assessed by first-order Monte Carlo simulation was refined to reflect the diagnostic process and treatment effects. Women and men entered the model at age 50. Main screening ages were 65, 75, and 85 years. Age at bone densitometry was flexible for persons fracturing before the main screening age. Realistic assumptions were made with respect to persistence with intended 5 years of alendronate treatment. The main outcome was cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Results In women, costs per QALY were Swiss francs (CHF) 71,000, CHF 35,000, and CHF 28,000 for the main screening ages of 65, 75, and 85 years. The threshold of CHF 50,000 per QALY was reached between main screening ages 65 and 75 years. Population-based screening was not cost-effective in men. Conclusion Population-based DXA screening, followed by alendronate treatment in the presence of osteoporosis, or of fracture and osteopenia, is a cost-effective option in Swiss postmenopausal women after age 70.     

Elective Versus Ruptured Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair: A 1-Year Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is a life-threatening condition with an overall mortality of 80%. It predominantly affects men 65-74 years of age and is caused by focal distension of the main blood vessel in the abdomen. Most patients go undetected until their aneurysm ruptures. Controversy surrounds the most appropriate form of screening for AAA. Currently, screening is only carried out selectively in patients with peripheral vascular disease. Some patients have their AAA detected incidentally, whilst ultrasound examination of the abdomen is carried out for other indications. These patients have the opportunity to undergo surveillance or elective surgery. The mortality rate of emergency surgical intervention following rupture (50%) is far worse in comparison to that of patients undergoing planned intervention under specialist vascular surgeons (5%). Despite improvements in outcomes from elective intervention for AAA as a result of specialisation, the overall mortality from this condition remains very high (80%) as the commonest presentation of an AAA is rupture. Screening all men aged 65-74 years is considered too costly in the current economic climate. However the cost difference between elective repair and emergency repair of AAA must be considered given that the outcome from elective AAA repair is far superior to that following ruptured AAA repair. Our objective was to retrospectively collect costs and outcomes of elective and emergency AAA repair in order to carry out a cost-effectiveness analysis. Four multiprofessional teams in accident and emergency, operation theatres, intensive care, and surgical wards at the Kent and Canterbury Hospital were selected from health-care professionals including doctors, managers, nurses, and clerical staff with the purpose of obtaining costs. Detailed cost data collection sheets were prepared to calculate costs, which included staff costs, consumables including drugs, intravenous fluids, equipment, investigations, laundry, catering, and stationery. An inventory of costs per item was obtained, and the total cost was calculated from the number of items used. Outcomes were measured in terms of survival. The total costs of emergency AAA repair were ￡96,700.69, with a cost per life saved of ￡24,175.17. The total cost of elective AAA repair was ￡76,583.22, with a cost per life saved of ￡5,470.23. Emergency intervention for AAA was found to cost five times more than a planned intervention per life saved per year.     

Cumulative risk for developing end-stage renal disease in the US population

The individual risk of developing end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and its overall impact on life expectancy is not known. This study's objectives were to determine the effect of ESRD on life expectancy for a cohort of 20-yr-olds and to compare this impact to that of several cancers for which population-based screening programs exist. A computer simulation, stratified by race (white, black) and by gender was used to calculate cumulative lifetime risk of ESRD, life-years lost to ESRD, and cumulative Medicare payments for ESRD. Similar calculations were made for breast, prostate, and colorectal cancer. The cumulative lifetime risk of ESRD for a 20-yr-old black woman is 7.8%. Equivalent risks for black men are 7.3%, white men 2.5%, and white women 1.8%. Lost years of life attributable to ESRD are 1.09, 1.10, 0.40, and 0.32 yr for black women, black men, white men, and white women, respectively. In blacks, ESRD is responsible for nearly as much loss of life-years as breast cancer in women and more loss of life-years than colorectal or prostate cancer in men. In addition, treatment costs for ESRD in this population are many-fold more expensive than cumulative treatment costs of these cancers. Exploring new screening and treatment strategies may be warranted to prevent ESRD, particularly in the US black population.     

Randomized double-blind controlled trial of roxithromycin for prevention of abdominal aortic aneurysm expansion

BACKGROUND: Macrolide treatment has been reported to lower the risk of recurrent ischaemic heart disease. The influence of macrolides on the expansion rate of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) remains unknown. The aim was to investigate the effect of roxithromycin on the expansion rate of small AAAs. METHODS: A total of 92 subjects with a small AAA were recruited from two populations. One population consisted of 6339 men aged 65-73 years who were offered a hospital-based mass screening programme for AAA. From this population 66 subjects were recruited. The remaining 26 men were recruited from among 49 subjects diagnosed at interval screening for an initial aortic diameter between 25 and 29 mm. Subjects were randomized to receive either oral roxithromycin 300 mg once daily for 28 days or matching placebo, and followed for a mean of 1.5 years. RESULTS: During the first year the mean annual expansion rate of AAAs was reduced by 44 [corrected] per cent in the intervention group (1.56 mm per year), compared with 2.80 mm per year following placebo (P = 0.02). During the second year the difference was only 5 per cent [corrected]. Multiple linear regression analysis showed that roxithromycin treatment and initial AAA size were significantly related to AAA expansion when adjusted for smoking, diastolic blood pressure and immunoglobulin A level of 20 or more [corrected]. Logistic regression analysis confirmed a significant difference in expansion rates above 2 mm annually between the intervention and placebo groups: odds ratio = 0.09 (95 per cent confidence interval 0.01-0.83) [corrected]. CONCLUSION: In comparison to placebo, roxithromycin 300 mg daily for 4 weeks reduced the expansion rate of AAAs.     

Abdominal aortic aneurysm screening: recommendations and controversies

Extensive level one evidence supports routine abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) screening in men aged 65 to 75 years, because AAAs are highly prevalent in this population. Physical examination is an insensitive means of detection. Ruptured AAAs are costly with respect to quality adjusted life years (QALY) lost and medical expenses. Large scale, randomized trials have demonstrated that AAA screening reduces all AAA-related mortality in the screened population and is cost-effective in mid-term follow-up. AAA screening by ultrasound has many advantages over other accepted medical screening programs in its simplicity in structure and the availability of an inexpensive, portable, and reliable means of screening. Additionally, AAA screening almost entirely avoids the negative consequences associated with other screening programs, including the adverse psychological effects and medical costs associated with false-positive examination results. There are subgroups of at-risk women who might benefit from AAA screening, and this issue should be further studied.     

Apolipoprotein E genotype is associated with differential expansion rates of small abdominal aortic aneurysms

BACKGROUND: The common polymorphism of the apolipoprotein E (APOE) gene is associated with differential risk of atherosclerosis; the gene could be a candidate gene in abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA). METHODS: APOE genotypes were determined in 57 men aged 65-73 years with a small AAA (30-50 mm). The patients were included in a population ultrasonographic screening programme and were followed with at least two examinations during an interval of 2-4.5 years. The AAA expansion rates in patients with four different APOE genotypes were studied, with adjustment for initial AAA size and smoking. RESULTS: APOE genotype was a significant determinant of AAA expansion rate (P = 0.001). The adjusted mean (95 per cent confidence interval) rate was 2.1 (1.7-2.6) mm/year in 31 men with genotype E3E3, 1.3 (0.7-1.9) mm/year in 17 men with E3E4, 3.1 (2.0-4. 1) mm/year in six men with E2E3 and 4.2 (2.7-5.6) mm/year in three men with E2E4. The mean expansion rate was 2.2 (1.5-2.8) mm/year in non-smokers and 3.0 (2.5-3.6) mm/year in smokers (P = 0.014). CONCLUSION: APOE genotype seems to influence AAA expansion rate, but the effects of the individual genotypes, in particular E3E3 and E3E4, are contradictory when compared with the effects of the genotypes on risk of atherosclerosis.     

Concomitant Detection of Systemic Atherosclerotic Disease while Screening for Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm

Introduction Although population screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) has/had a significant impact on disease-specific mortality, coexisting systemic atherosclerosis represents the major impediment to improved longevity. We examined the feasibility and yield of full cardiovascular assessment concomitant with screening for AAA detection. Methods A total of 1032 asymptomatic men over the age of 50 years (328 were >60 years) underwent a detailed cardiac health questionnaire, sphygmomanometry, body mass index calculation, fasting lipid profiling, ultrasonographic (US) examination of their infrarenal aorta and carotid arteries, and treadmill exercise stress testing. Framingham and SCORE project estimations of the 10-year risk of ischemic heart disease (IHD) and fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) of any cause were calculated for the men with an AAA and in those >60 years but with neither AAA nor known cardiac disease. Results Overall, we detected an AAA >3 cm in 30 men (2.9%). Unaddressed obesity, smoking, hypertension, impaired glucose metabolism, and hypercholesterolemia were commonly identified in individuals both with and without an AAA, being notably frequent in those >60 years without an AAA. The 10-year risk of IHD and CHD in those >60 years was similar regardless of whether an AAA was present. Doppler screening for significant carotid stenosis had detection rates similar to those for aortic US scanning, being most useful in those >65 years of age. Exercise stress testing, however, was of only limited value when used nonselectively. Conclusions Modifiable atherosclerotic disease and cardiovascular risk can be readily detected in individuals presenting for AAA screening and are present to a significant degree at an earlier age. Consideration of selected, additional investigations is required to maximize the value of generalized screening programs.