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1.
背景:目前临床上有多种风险预测评估系统及相关危险因素,均可在一定程度上对患者的病情严重性进行客观评估,但尚无专门针对老年髋部骨折患者的手术风险预测系统。目的:比较老年髋部骨折患者手术风险评分系统(ORSSHF)与生理学和手术严重度评分系统(POSSUM),探索能客观而准确反映该类患者手术风险的预测方法。方法:依据统计学及POSSUM评分系统建立ORSSHF评分系统,分别应用ORSSHF和POSSUM评分系统回顾性研究2011年3月至2012年3月接受手术治疗的112例老年髋部骨折患者,男47例,女65例;年龄60~94岁,平均(74.6±6.8)岁。按术前风险评分进行分组,用统计学方法比较两种评分系统对该类患者手术并发症和死亡率的预测价值。结果:应用POSSUM和ORSSHF评分系统进行预测,发生并发症例数分别为50例和44例,死亡例数分别为6例和4例,实际发生并发症36例、死亡3例。前者预测值显著高于实际值(P<0.05);后者预测值和实际值无统计学差异。结论:POSSUM评分系统评估老年髋部骨折患者术前风险存在一定局限性;ORSSHF评分系统能较准确地评估该类患者的术前风险及预测术后并发症和死亡率,一定程度上弥补POSSUM评分系统的不足。  相似文献   

2.
目的 应用改良的生理学和手术严重度评分系统(POSSUM及P-POSSUM)对老年髋部骨折手术死亡率和并发症率进行评估探讨对手术风险评估的价值.方法 应用POSSUM及P-POSSUM,预测191例老年髋部骨折术后30 d内并发症率及死亡率,比较其预测价值.以并发症率50%为界,分为中低风险组(101例)及高风险组(9...  相似文献   

3.
老年患者髋部手术安全影响因素的分析   总被引:7,自引:2,他引:5  
目的分析老年髋部疾患的手术安全影响因素,建立髋部手术风险简易评分法。方法选择住院施行手术的301例有髋部疾患的患者,分析其术前合并症情况、术前生命体征、实验室及辅助检查情况,根据POSSUM评分改良建立术前评分;分析术后并发症情况,建立术后评分,统计分析术前与术后评分的相关性。结果老年髋部疾患术后评分和少数明显异常的术前评分指标相关性最高,据此建立简易评分法。结论用简易手术风险评分法可以准确方便的预测老年髋部疾患的手术风险,从而可以合理的进行手术决策。  相似文献   

4.
目的 探讨应用POSSUM评分系统预测老年人股骨粗降间骨折术后病死率及并发症发牛率的价值.方法 2007年1月至2008年12月回顾性分析119例老年股骨粗隆间骨折患者,按照适用于骨科的改良型POSSUM评分系统评估量表对每例患者进行生理学评分及手术严重度评分,将数据代人原始POSSUM回归公式计算出术后死亡概率及术后并发症发生概率,据此概率计算出预测死亡人数和发生并发症人数,并与观察到的实际死亡人数和发生并发症人数进行比较.结果 POSSUM评分系统预测术后30 d内42例(35.3%)发生并发症,实际发生并发症39例(32.8%),(χ2=0.168,P=0.682);预测术后30 d内死亡11例(9.2%),实际死亡5例(4.2%)(χ2=2.412,P=0.120).结论 改良POSSUM评分系统能较好的预测老年患者股骨粗隆间骨折术后30 d内的并发症发生率及病死率,对于高危患者(预测病死率>20%)的预测结果更加准确;其生理学评分量表可用于老年股骨粗隆间骨折患者的术前评估;肺部疾病是导致老年股骨粗隆间骨折患者术后死亡的首要因素.  相似文献   

5.
目的应用查尔森合并症指数(CCI)联合改良生理学和手术严重度评分(POSSUM),对老年股骨粗隆间骨折患者进行风险评估,探讨两种评分系统应用的价值。方法回顾性分析自2010-01—2014-12诊治的131例年龄≥60岁的老年股骨粗隆间骨折的临床资料,按治疗转归分为有并发症组和无并发症组,记录各项影响因素及CCI评分、改良POSSUM评分。结果改良POSSUM生理学评分、CCI评分与患者住院期间预后独立相关(P0.05)。改良POSSUM生理学评分、CCI评分和两者联合预测概率的曲线下面积[AUC(95%CI)]依次为0.657、0.649、0.668。结论联合应用改良POSSUM评分和CCI评分比单独应用一种评分系统能够更好地评估患者的预后。  相似文献   

6.
目的 探讨生理学和手术严重度评分系统,即POSSUM和P-POSSOM评分系统,对老年股骨颈骨折手术的手术风险预测价值.方法 首都医科大学附属北京友谊医院骨科于2010年1月-2012年5月收治因股骨颈骨折行人工关节置换手术治疗的老年患者108例,应用POSSUM和P-POSSUM评分系统预测患者手术病死率和并发症发病率,分析人工髋关节置换手术风险预测值和观察值之间的差异.同时对病例资料进行分组比较,分析不同组别间的预测情况是否存在差异.结果 根据POSSUM评分系统预测,47例患者术后发生并发症,平均并发症发病率为43.52%,而实际发生并发症37例,实际并发症发病率为34.26%,预测值与实际值差异无统计学意义(P=0.238);预测11例死亡,平均病死率为10.19%,实际死亡2例,实际病死率为1.85%,预测值明显高于实际值.根据P-POSSUM评分系统预测的病死率(预测死亡4例,平均病死率为3.70%,实际死亡2例,实际病死率为1.85%),预测值与实际值差异无统计学意义(P=0.625).以POSSUM评分得分40分为界分组,两组并发症发病率及病死率的预测值与实际值分组比较差异无统计学意义(P =0.527,P =0.285).结论 POSSUM评分系统能较好地预测老年股骨颈骨折手术患者并发症发病率,但过高估计手术病死率;P-POSSUM评分系统能准确地预测手术病死率,对于高危组患者的预测结果尤为满意.  相似文献   

7.
目的 探讨改良生理学和手术严重度评分系统(POSSUM评分系统)预测骨盆髋臼骨折手术并发症发生概率的应用价值. 方法 回顾性分析1997年1月至2006年5月94例骨盆髋臼骨折患者术后住院期间并发症情况,我们按照骨科及骨盆髋臼骨折的特点对POSSUM评分系统进行改良:将手术严重度指标中以手术入路代替腹膜污染;将多种手术同时进行改为手术持续时间;将合并伤代替癌症;将手术大小和手术类型按照骨科手术特点进行4级制进行评分.应用POSSUM评分系统预测患者术后并发症发生概率,比较并发症组与无并发症组间各评分的差异.画出ROC曲线,描述符合程度,评价预测能力,确定截断点. 结果 并发症组38例,平均生理学评分17.26±2.84,平均手术严重度评分19.50±5.14,平均年龄(34.50±12.05)岁,伤后至手术时间(21.05±25.09)d;无并发症组56例,平均生理学评分16.04±2.77,平均手术严重度评分13.00±3.81,平均年龄(36.40±11.36)岁,伤后至手术时间(18.09±27.20)d.应用改良POSSUM评分系统评估:并发症组生理学评分、手术严重度评分均明显高于无并发症组,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05);并发症组年龄、外伤至手术时间与无并发症组比较无差异均无统计学意义(P>0.05).应用POSSUM评分系统预测并发症发生概率P=43%为截断点,灵敏度(SE)=73.68%,特异度(SP)=80.36%,符合率为77.66%,ROC曲线面积为0.856. 结论 改良POSSUM评分系统可用来准确预测骨盆髋臼骨折术后并发症发生概率,本评分系统可对患者术前的危重程度进行评价,当得分超过截断点时手术风险过大,不能耐受手术,需进行对症治疗或选择微创手术,待评分降至截断点范围内再行手术治疗,降低手术风险,确保手术安全.  相似文献   

8.
目的探讨改良生理学和手术严重度评分系统(POSSUM)对预测颈椎手术患者术后并发症发生率的意义。方法根据颈椎手术特点修改POSSUM评分系统中的部分指标(将手术严重度指标中的手术范围和手术次数替换为手术方式和手术持续时间.在生理学指标中增加颈椎核磁共振检查).并对183例颈椎手术患者术后并发症实际发生率和理论预测率进行比较。结果按Copland公式理论预测有59例(32.2%)发生并发症.实际发生为52例(28.4%).二者比较,差异无显著性意义(P〉0.05)。结论改良POSSUM评分系统能较准确地预测颈椎手术并发症发生率,对临床医疗护理工作有重要的指导意义。  相似文献   

9.
目的:骨科老年患者常合并骨量减少、肌少症、行走困难等因素,本研究根据衰弱表型(FP)在骨科老年患者评估中的应用进行meta分析,以探讨FP在骨科老年患者评估中的临床意义。方法:系统检索PubMed、Embase、万方数据库、中国知网等数据库,获得各数据库自建库至2021年12月1日有关FP在骨科应用的相关文献,并使用R软件进行meta分析。结果:本研究最终纳入18篇文献。单组率的meta分析显示31%骨科老年患者术前即为衰弱,meta分析结果表明FP评估的衰弱与跌倒(OR=1.65)、髋部骨折(OR=1.26)、死亡(OR=1.85)的风险增加有关。系统综述发现衰弱是髋膝关节置换术、髋关节骨折术后不良预后的危险因素,但尚缺乏FP在脊柱外科手术中的应用研究。结论:FP在骨科老年患者评估中起关键作用,值得进一步临床推广和探索。  相似文献   

10.
目的 通过比较分析老年骨科患者围手术期风险评分( PRESGOP)与急性生理及慢性健康状况评分(APACHE)、计数死亡率和发病率的生理学和手术严重性评分(POSSUM)的有效性、相关性及预测的准确性,探讨PRESGOP评分在预测老年骨科患者术后并发症和死亡率方面的效能。方法 2009年1月至2010年2月,收集所有入骨科的65岁以上患者资料,按照PRESGOP、APACHE、POSSUM评分表分别计算评分结果。剔除未进行手术治疗的患者,再记录术后预后情况,共纳入401例患者。按照有无并发症、有无死亡分别分成2组,依次对PRESGOP、APACHE、POSSUM评分结果进行分析,另比较3种评分结果间的相关性以及预测术后并发症和死亡率ROC曲线的曲线下面积的差异。结果 有并发症组和无并发症组比较,3种评分结果差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05)。死亡组和存活组比较,仅PRESGOP评分差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。3种评分间两两相关(P<0.05)。PRESGOP、APACHE、POSSUM 3种评分总分与不良预后所得ROC曲线下面积分别为0.771、0.634、0.751,3种评分差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05)。预测死亡率ROC曲线下面积分别为0.920、0.877、0.836,仅PRESGOP评分差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论 PRESGOP、APACHE、POSSUM 3种评分在老年骨科患者评价方面具有良好相关性,在预测骨科老年手术后并发症和死亡率方面同样有效,PRESGOP的效能相对更加准确。  相似文献   

11.
目的探讨高龄结直肠癌患者术后并发症发生的危险因素和预防策略。方法收集2006年1月至2009年12月间北京大学人民医院胃肠外科收治并行手术治疗的107例高龄结直肠癌患者(75岁以上)的临床资料。应用POSSUM、E.POSSUM评分系统预测术后并发症发生率,并用ROC曲线及实际例数/预测例数(O/E)比值评估其效度:采用Logistic回归分析影响并发症发生的独立危险因素。结果E.POSSUM和POSSUM评分系统预测术后并发症发生率分别为13.9%。86.6%(平均32.7%)和19.1%~99.1%(平均55.5%),E—POSSUM评分系统优于POSSUM评分系统[ROC曲线下面积(AUC值):0.862比0.576];O/E:0.771比0.454,更加接近于实际并发症发生率(25.2%,27/107)。术前合并糖尿病(P=0.019)和发病部位为直肠(P=0.005)是手术相关并发症的独立危险因素:吻合口瘘为最常见的手术相关并发症;术前合并慢性阻塞性肺病(P=0.026)、术前ASA分级(P_0.025)、术前肠梗阻(P=0.037)及术前肠穿孔(P=0.001)是非手术相关并发症的独立危险因素:肺部感染是最常见的非手术相关并发症。结论术前应用E—POSSUM评分系统可对高龄结直肠癌患者术后并发症发生率进行较为准确的预测:对于并发症发生高危患者术前应积极干预高危因素.以预防术后并发症的发生。  相似文献   

12.
The goal of this study was to validate the usefulness of risk assessment scoring systems for a surgical audit in elective digestive surgery for elderly patients. The validated scoring systems used were the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) and the Portsmouth predictor equation for mortality (P-POSSUM). This study involved 153 consecutive patients aged 75 years and older who underwent elective gastric or colorectal surgery between July 2004 and June 2006. A retrospective analysis was performed on data collected prior to each surgery. The predicted mortality and morbidity risks were calculated using each of the scoring systems and were used to obtain the observed/predicted (O/E) mortality and morbidity ratios. New logistic regression equations for morbidity and mortality were then calculated using the scores from the POSSUM system and applied retrospectively. The O/E ratio for morbidity obtained from POSSUM score was 0.23. The O/E ratios for mortality from the POSSUM score and the P-POSSUM were 0.15 and 0.38, respectively. Utilizing the new equations using scores from the POSSUM, the O/E ratio increased to 0.88. Both the POSSUM and P-POSSUM over-predicted the morbidity and mortality in elective gastrointestinal surgery for malignant tumors in elderly patients. However, if a surgical unit makes appropriate calculations using its own patient series and updates these equations, the POSSUM system can be useful in the risk assessment for surgery in elderly patients.  相似文献   

13.
POSSUM scoring for patients with fractured neck of femur   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
Background. POSSUM scoring is validated as an audit tool ingeneral and orthopaedic surgery. It is also used for preoperativetriage to assess perioperative risk. However its ability topredict mortality in specific surgical subgroups, such as patientswith fractured neck of the femur, has not been studied. Thisstudy assessed the predictive capability of POSSUM for 30-daymortality after surgery for fractured neck of femur. Methods. A cohort study was conducted in Queen's Medical Centre,Nottingham over a period of nearly 2 yr. Complete data from1164 patients were analysed to compare the mortality predictedby POSSUM and the observed mortality. POSSUM risk of death wascalculated using the original POSSUM equation, with modificationsto the operative score appropriate for orthopaedic surgery. Results. POSSUM predicted 181 (15.6%) deaths and the observedmortality was 119 (10.2%). The area under the receiver operatingcharacteristic curve was 0.62, indicating poor performance bythe POSSUM equation. Conclusion. POSSUM overpredicts mortality in hip fracture patients.It should be used with caution whether as an audit tool or forpreoperative triage. An abstract of part of the study was presented at the AnaestheticResearch Society meeting, Aberdeen, April 2004 and publishedin British Journal of Anaesthesia 2004; 93: 161.  相似文献   

14.
Background: Hip fracture surgery is associated with high post‐operative mortality and poor functional results: the excess mortality is 20% in the first year; of those patients who survive, only 50% recover their previous ability to walk. The purpose of this study was to assess the predictive value of six functional status and/or surgical risk scoring systems with regard to serious complications after hip fracture surgery in the elderly. Methods: We performed a prospective study of a consecutive series of 232 patients (aged 65 years or older) undergoing hip fracture surgery. We pre‐operatively applied: The American Society of Anesthesiologists classification, the Barthel index, the Goldman index, the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) scoring system, the Charlson index and the Visual Analogue Scale for Risk (RISK‐VAS) scale. These scales were evaluated with respect to three variables: incidence of serious complications, the ability to walk after a 3‐month period and 90‐day survival. The predictive value of the different scales was assessed by the calculated area under a receiver operating characteristic curve. Results: The RISK‐VAS scale, the POSSUM scoring system and the Charlson index reached a sufficient predictive value with regard to serious post‐operative complications. The Barthel index and the RISK‐VAS scale were those most useful for predicting ambulation at 3 months. None of the scales proved to be capable of predicting 90‐day mortality. Conclusions: A simple index such as the RISK‐VAS scale was the best predictor of serious post‐operative complications. The functional level before the fracture, measured with the Barthel index, had a major influence on the ambulation recovery.  相似文献   

15.
Objective: To evaluate the applicability of the modified physiological and operative severity score for enumeration of mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) scoring system in predicting mortality in the patients undergoing hip joint arthroplasty.
Methods: A total of 295 patients with hip fractures were analyzed using the modified POSSUM surgical scoring system. The mean ages of the patients were 66.59 years in the complicative group, 62.28 years in noncomplicative group, 77.89 years in the death group and 63.25 years in the living group, respectively. The comparisons between the observed and predicted morbidity, between the observed and predicted mortality were made within 30 days after operation. Results: The average physiological scores and operative severity scores was 18.96 ± 4.83 and 13.47 ± 2.01 in complicative group, while 15.65 ± 3.66 and 11.74 ± 2.26 innoncomplicative group (P〈0.05). The average physiological scores and operative severity scores was 25.56 ± 3.78 and 14.22 ± 0.67 in death group, while 16.46 ± 4.09 and 12.25 ± 2.33 in living group (P〈0.05). Though POSSUM scoring system over-predicted the overall risk of death, its estimate was very close in the high risk groups (〉10%). There was perfect consistence between the observed and the predicted morbidity as calculated by published predictor equation for morbidity, and consistence for mortality in the high risk band.
Conclusions: Modified POSSUM scoring system may be used to predict the morbidity in patients with hip fracture. Furthermore, POSSUM scoring system overpredicts the overall risk of death, but its estimate is close to the actual data in the high risk band (〉10%).  相似文献   

16.

Background

Patients in the extremes of old age with a femoral neck fracture represent a challenging subgroup, and are thought to be associated with poorer outcomes due to increased numbers of comorbidities. Whilst many studies are aimed at determining the optimum time for surgical fixation, there is no agreed consensus for those over 90. The aim of this study is to report the surgical outcome of this population, to understand the role surgical timing may have on operative outcomes using the orthopaedic POSSUM scoring system and to identify whether medical optimization occurs during the period of admission before surgery.

Materials and methods

We conducted a prospective observational study; data was collected from two district general hospitals over 32 consecutive months. All patients aged 90 and above who were deemed suitable for surgical fixation were included. Each one had their orthopaedic POSSUM score calculated at admission and at surgery, using their computerised and paper medical records. Assessment of outcome was based on morbidity and mortality at 30 days.

Results

A total of 146 consecutive patients above the age of 90 underwent surgery and were followed. The average age of the patients was 93 years, 123 (84 %) were female and 23 (16 %) male. Sixty-one patients were operated on within 24 h from admission, 52 patients within 24 and 48 h and 33 had surgery after 48 h from admission. In total, 21 deaths (14.4 %) were recorded and 81 patients (55.5 %) had a post-operative complication within 30 days. The orthopaedic POSSUM scoring system predicted 30-day mortality in 23 patients and morbidity in 83 patients. This gave observed to predicted ratios of 0.91 and 0.98 respectively. Overall, there was a small improvement in physiological scores taken just prior to surgery compared to those at admission. Mortality and morbidity rates were higher for those operated on or after 24 and 48-h cutoffs compared to those proceeding to surgery within 24 h (P = 0.071 and P = 0.021 respectively and P = 0.048 and P = 0.00011 respectively). When stratified according to their POSSUM scores, patients with scores of 41+ and surgery after 48 h had a significantly higher mortality rate than if they had surgery earlier (P = 0.038). Morbidity rates rose after 24 h of surgical delay (P = 0.026). Patients with a total POSSUM score between 33 and 40 exhibited a higher morbidity after a 24-h delay to surgery (P = 0.0064).

Conclusion

As life expectancy increases, older patients are becoming commoner in our hospital systems. We believe the orthopaedic POSSUM scoring system can be used as an adjuvant tool in prioritising surgical need, and allow for a more impartial evaluation when changes to practice are made. Our findings show that timing of surgery has an important bearing on mortality and morbidity after hip surgery, and older patients with higher orthopaedic POSSUM scores are sensitive to delays in surgery.  相似文献   

17.
For most spine surgeons, operative intervention is common for the treatment of lumbar disc herniation, lumbar stenosis, lumbar fracture or lumbar spondylolisthesis. However, with the increase in lumbar surgery, the complication rate increases accordingly. Whereas the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) scoring system has been widely used to predict morbidity in various surgical fields, the application of this system in lumbar surgery has not been reported. From January 2008 to January 2010, we recruited 158 patients (85 males and 73 females) with operation for lumbar disc herniation, lumbar stenosis, lumbar fracture, or lumbar spondylolisthesis. All patients were analyzed to compare the morbidity by a modified POSSUM scoring system. According to the modified POSSUM, the expected morbidity was 51 cases (32.3 %), whereas the observed mortality was 42 cases (26.6 %). The overall observed-to-expected ratio was 0.82, and the chi-squared test indicated no statistically significant difference between the expected and observed morbidities (χ2 = 1.23, P = 0.27), suggesting that the modified POSSUM can accurately estimate the outcome. The modified POSSUM scoring system we developed is a useful tool for predicting and evaluating morbidity in lumbar surgery. Further studies are required to investigate whether this scoring system can predict mortality.  相似文献   

18.
A simple way of evaluating surgical outcomes is to compare mortality and morbidity. Such comparisons may be misleading without a proper case mix. The POSSUM scoring system was developed to overcome this problem. The score can be used to derive predictive mortality and morbidity for surgical procedures. POSSUM and a modified version P-POSSUM have been evaluated in various groups of surgical patients for the accuracy of predicting mortality. These scoring systems have not been evaluated in neurosurgical patients. Thus, we tried to evaluate the usefulness of POSSUM and P-POSSUM scoring systems in neurosurgical patients in predicting in-hospital mortality. POSSUM physiological and operative variables were collected from all neurosurgical patients undergoing elective craniotomy, from April 2005 to Feb 2006. In-hospital mortality was obtained from the hospital mortality register. The physiological score, operative score, POSSUM predicted mortality rate and P-POSSUM predicted mortality rate were calculated using a calculator. The observed number of deaths was compared against the predicted deaths. A total of 285 patients with a mean age of 38 +/- 15 years were studied. Overall observed mortality was nine patients (3.16%). The mortality predicted by the P-POSSUM model was also nine patients (3.16%). Mortality predicted by POSSUM was poor with predicted deaths in 31 patients (11%). The difference between observed and predicted deaths at different risk levels was not significant with P-POSSUM (p = 0.424) and was significantly different with POSSUM score (p < 0.001). P-POSSUM scoring system was highly accurate in predicting the overall mortality in neurosurgical patients. In contrast, POSSUM score was not useful for prediction of mortality.  相似文献   

19.
背景:老年髋部周围骨折患者围手术期易出现各种并发症,其中围手术期精神障碍(perioperative delirium, POD)近年来逐渐得到国内骨科医师的重视。预防POD发生,是摆在骨科医生面前的重要问题。 目的:探讨老年髋部周围骨折患者中POD的发病率,以及其发病相关的危险因素和保护因素。 方法:回顾性分析2001年1月至2013年1月收治的384例老年髋部周围骨折行大型手术的患者,女206例,男178例;年龄65-95岁,平均78.3岁。以性别、年龄、手术时间、手术方式、麻醉方式、输血、药物治疗及合并症为自变量,POD的发病率为因变量,进行Logistic回归分析。 结果:384例患者平均住院时间15.8 d(7-35 d),其中79例发生POD,发生率为20.6%。经分析进入Logistic回归方程的因素是年龄、手术时间、麻醉方式、合并症、输血、药物治疗(P〈0.05)。其中高龄、手术时间过长、全身麻醉、合并症(尤其脑血管病变)是POD的危险因素,输血和药物治疗是保护因素。性别及手术方式对发生POD的影响差异无统计学意义(P〉0.05)。 结论:老年髋部周围骨折易并发POD。围手术期仔细评估POD形成的相关因素,避免全身麻醉和手术时间过长,积极治疗合并症。高危患者必要时应输血并采用药物预防以降低POD的发生率。  相似文献   

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