2015年中国成人烟草调查:中国卷烟消费价格和可负担性分析

目的 分析中国烟草消费价格变化,了解中国居民对烟草价格的可负担性。方法 采用分层多阶段整群概率抽样方法,在全国抽取16 800户家庭,使用微型计算机在每户家庭中随机抽取1名调查对象,采用全球烟草监测系统中的标准问卷,根据中国特点加入了公共场所禁烟法规的相关问题,进行问卷调查。结果 现在吸烟者购买20支卷烟的费用中位数为9.9元,有25%的人购买20支卷烟的费用不超过5.5元,仅有10%的人会购买20支价格在19.9元以上的卷烟。50%的人每月购买卷烟的费用不超过181.4元。2010-2015年城乡居民购卷烟的费用占人均可支配收入的比重均降低,城市从10.5%降至8.8%,农村从21.1%降至17.3%。结论 2010-2015年中国卷烟消费价格的可负担性在提高,卷烟相对消费价格在降低。     

江西省居民吸烟行为及烟草消费情况分析

目的 了解江西省居民吸烟行为,分析烟草消费隋况及烟草价格上涨对吸烟行为潜在影响。方法 采用三阶段随机整群抽样方法,在江西省11个设区市中选择上饶市和宜春市作为调查现场,利用KISH码在32个街道/镇820户家庭中选择15岁及以上居民进行问卷调查。结果最终人组的805名居民中,现在吸烟者218人,吸烟率为27.08%(男性吸烟率为46.62%,女性吸烟率为3.05%)。218名吸烟居民中,烟龄最短1年,最长50年,烟龄中位数为20年。96.33%的吸烟居民通过“自己购买”获得卷烟,54.59%吸烟居民吸5～9元一包的卷烟,20.64%吸l～4元一包的卷烟,18.8l%吸10～15元一包的卷烟,仅13名吸烟居民平常吸15～30元一包的卷烟。吸烟居民平均每月最少花费20元,最多花费800元,平均花费192元,占个人月收入的13%。根据218名吸烟居民关于卷烟价格上涨对其吸烟行为影响的回答绘制曲线图,可了解卷烟价格上涨对吸烟者吸烟行为的潜在影响情况。结论 江西省吸烟居民的烟草经济负担较重,烟草价格上涨将促使吸烟者改变吸烟行为。应考虑中国烟草价格低、价格跨度大等现实问题,合理提高烟草销售价格,改变吸烟人群的吸烟行为,进而逐渐降低人群吸烟率。     

2014-2015年全国抗菌药物处方点评数据分析

目的 通过数据评估全国部分三甲医院门/急诊抗菌药物应用的合理性。方法 抽取国际合理用药网络（INRUD）处方点评监测网中2014-2015年全国25个省（直辖市、自治区）78家网员单位上报的门/急诊应用抗菌药物处方。统计抗菌药物处方的基本信息,并对处方合理性进行分析。结果 共点评门/急诊抗菌药物处方447 894张,处方合格率从2014年91.52%上升至2015年93.08%,两年抗菌药物使用率相近,分别为11.72%及12.04%。2014及2015年门/急诊抗菌药物不合理处方主要为不适宜处方,包括适应证不适宜（32.42%,34.02%）及用法用量不适宜（24.22%,18.56%）两种类型。结论 门/急诊抗菌药物使用情况总体达标,但仍有个别地区未达到国家要求。不合理处方类型表明抗菌药物处方合理性仍有提高空间。     

广东省2008-2015年诺如病毒感染暴发的危险因素分析

目的 研究2008-2015年广东省诺如病毒感染暴发疫情的危险因素,为诺如病毒感染的预防控制工作提供参考依据。方法 通过"突发公共卫生事件报告管理信息系统"收集2008年1月1日至2015年12月31日广东省报告的诺如病毒感染暴发疫情资料,并进行流行病学分析。采用RT-PCR 方法对2012-2015年73起诺如病毒感染暴发疫情的372份阳性标本进行基因测序亚型分析。结果 2008-2015年广东省共报告96起诺如病毒感染暴发疫情,其中2013-2015年共报告80起（占83.3%,80/96）。暴发地点在学校的占全部疫情的85.4%（82/96）;传播途径为食源性传播占40.6%（39/96）,接触传播占24.0%（23/96）,水源性传播占7.3%（8/96）。基因测序亚型分析显示, 2012-2013年的暴发主要由GⅡ.4/Sydney2012型诺如病毒感染引起（占30.0%,6/20）,2014-2015年的暴发主要由GⅡ.17型诺如病毒感染引起（占62.3%,33/53）。结论 食源性和接触传播及新出现的2种诺如病毒变异株GⅡ.4/Sydney2012变异株和GⅡ.17是引起广东省诺如病毒感染暴发的主要原因。     

2007-2015年四次横断面调查中陕西省居民吸烟变化情况分析

目的 分析2007-2015年陕西省成年人烟草流行现状及趋势变化。方法 利用2007、2010、2013和2015年全国慢性病及其危险因素监测数据,计算4次调查的吸烟率、吸烟量、戒烟率及二手烟暴露率,用趋势χ²检验计算其变化趋势,以抽样权重及2010年第六次人口普查数据计算加权率,以敏感性分析加以验证。结果 2007年陕西省成年人吸烟率为38.26%,2013年降至30.95%,但2015年上升到34.11%（趋势性χ²检验：Z=2.46,P=0.014）;2007-2015年,陕西省吸烟者吸烟量从16.90支/d,上升到17.76支/d;成年人戒烟率从11.02%上升到16.95%（趋势性χ²检验：Z=-4.18,P<0.01）;二手烟暴露率从2010年48.10%上升到2015年的63.88%（趋势性χ²检验：Z=-10.60,P<0.01）。敏感性分析趋势不变。结论 2007-2015年,陕西省成年人吸烟率和吸烟量保持在比较高的水平且变化不大,虽然吸烟人群的戒烟率逐渐提高,但非吸烟人群中二手烟暴露率迅速增加。     

山东省青少年电子烟和卷烟双重使用行为的研究

目的 了解山东省青少年电子烟和卷烟的双重使用现状及其影响因素,探讨产生双重使用的原因。方法 采用分层多阶段整群随机抽样方法,在山东省共抽取中学在校学生7 999人进行自填问卷调查。对样本进行加权后,使用SPSS 25.0软件复杂抽样模块对数据进行分析。结果 山东省青少年电子烟和卷烟双重尝试的比例为7.7%,双重使用的比例为1.3%。男生、好友吸烟、过去7 d二手烟暴露是双重使用的危险因素。双重使用者与仅吸卷烟者相比,在戒烟方面的认知和行为差异无统计学意义（P>0.05）,双重使用者吸电子烟的原因主要为好奇。结论 山东省青少年电子烟和卷烟双重使用行为普遍存在,其影响因素与传统卷烟类似。双重使用并非戒烟的过渡阶段,双重使用者未来持续吸烟的可能性较高,应引起关注和重视。     

中国2013－2015年乙型肝炎监测试点实施效果评价

目的 对2013-2015年中国乙型肝炎（乙肝）监测试点实施的效果进行评价。为提高乙肝监测质量提供参考依据。方法 下载2012-2015年传染病报告信息管理系统的200个监测点乙肝报告病例个案表及其附卡,分别从3个方面进行实施效果评价：①未分类乙肝病例所占比例;②附卡信息及报告类型一致性分析;③急性乙肝病例报告的准确性。采用EpiData 3.0软件建立数据库,SPSS 22.0软件分析,计算构成比、趋势χ²检验和一致性检验,计算Kappa值。结果 未分类乙肝报告病例比例从开展监测试点项目前的32.07%下降到2015年项目实施后的4.26%,且呈现逐年下降的趋势（趋势χ²=24 988,P<0.05）;2013-2015年通过附卡信息诊断的类型及报告类型一致性分析,2013、2014和2015年的Kappa值分别为0.768、0.821和0.836;2013-2015年监测试点地区急性乙肝报告准确率为55.77%~74.49%,且呈现逐年升高趋势（趋势χ²=97,P<0.05）。结论 中国乙肝监测试点项目开展取得较明显效果,急性乙肝报告病例诊断准确性逐年提高,未分类乙肝病例的比例降低。建议全国范围内推广这种监测模式,提高全国乙肝病例报告质量。     

应用捕获-标记-再捕获法评估济南市户籍居民死亡登记漏报水平

目的 应用捕获-标记-再捕获法（capture-mark-recapture,CMR）评估2013－2014年济南市居民死亡登记漏报水平。方法 采用分层整群随机抽样方法,按照城乡分层抽取济南市2个区、3个县,从抽中的每个县（区）随机抽取3个乡镇（街道）,每个乡镇（街道）随机抽取8个村（居委会）。通过民政、公安、妇幼、村医、村干部、社区居委会搜集辖区内2013年1月1日至2014年12月31日的户籍人口死亡名单,与死因监测数据进行比对,计算漏报率。结果 本次调查共收集济南市2013－2014年死亡病例2 903例,死因监测登记同期死亡病例3 113例,CMR估计死亡病例3 772例（95%CI：3 741～3 802）,死因监测漏报率为17.46%。不同类别的漏报率比较,2013、2014年漏报率分别为19.29%、15.57%（χ² =8.92,P< 0.01）。城区、农村漏报率分别为20.91%、11.93%（χ²=47.35,P< 0.01）。男性、女性漏报率分别为17.87%、16.98%（χ² =0.48,P> 0.05）,< 5岁组、≥5岁组漏报率分别为21.57%、17.45%（χ² =0.03,P> 0.05）。结论 济南市死因监测存在一定程度的漏报,应用CMR可以评估漏报水平,建议定期开展漏报调查,校正常规监测数据,并针对发现的漏报重点环节进行改进。     

深圳市2013-2017年儿童青少年超重肥胖流行趋势分析

目的 了解2013-2017年深圳市儿童青少年肥胖现状和变化趋势。方法 采用分层整群随机抽样的方法,在深圳市随机抽取6所小学、3所初中和3所高中,监测所有在校学生2013-2017年5年间的身高及体重。结果 2013-2017年6~18岁儿童青少年共监测94 868人次,超重率为13.31%,肥胖率为9.60%;男生超重率和肥胖率（17.60%和12.43%）均高于女生（10.27%和5.93%）;近5年来男、女生超重肥胖率总体呈下降趋势;男、女生超重率峰值分别出现在10~12岁和13~15岁年龄组,而肥胖率峰值均在6~9岁组。结论 2013-2017年深圳市儿童青少年超重肥胖率总体呈下降趋势,但仍处于较高水平,应继续加强监测和采取相应防控措施。     

天津市1999-2015年宫颈癌死亡率和过早死亡损失寿命年变化趋势分析

目的 分析天津市宫颈癌死亡长期趋势,为开展相关研究和预防工作提供参考。方法 计算1999-2015年天津市宫颈癌的死亡率、标化死亡率、累积死亡率（0~74岁）、截缩死亡率（35~64岁）和过早死亡损失寿命年（YLL）,应用Joinpoint回归分析宫颈癌死亡率、YLL率的趋势和年度变化百分比（APC）,并分析不同年龄组变化趋势。结果 1999-2015年天津市户籍居民因宫颈癌死亡1 741人,平均粗死亡率为2.15/10万,中国人口标化率为1.47/10万,世界人口标化率为1.50/10万,平均每年YLL为3 347.97人年。宫颈癌死亡者中,0~34岁占3.10%,35~64岁占57.84%,≥ 65岁占39.06%;城市宫颈癌死亡率高于农村,城乡比为1.37：1。1999-2015年宫颈癌年龄别死亡率随年龄的增加而上升。2014-2015年年龄别死亡率呈现双峰分布的特征,50岁为第一个高峰,75岁为第二个高峰;1999-2011年天津市女性宫颈癌死亡率呈稳定状态（APC=-0.2%,P=0.80）,2011-2015年呈快速上升趋势（APC=21.6%,P<0.01）;20~49岁组1999-2015年呈上升趋势（APC=6.9%,P<0.01）;50~69岁组1999-2007年呈下降趋势（APC=-9.2%,P<0.01）,2007-2015年呈上升趋势（APC=14.5%,P<0.01）;≥ 70岁组1999-2009年呈下降趋势（APC=-10.2%,P<0.01）,2009-2015年变化差异无统计学意义（APC=7.8%,P=0.10）。自2008年开始,50~70岁组宫颈癌的YLL率超过≥ 70岁组,并且差距逐渐扩大。结论 自2011年天津市地区宫颈癌死亡率呈快速上升趋势,50~70岁人群将是宫颈癌寿命损失的主要群体。     

Per-pack price reductions available from different cigarette purchasing strategies: United States, 2009–2010

ObjectiveFollowing cigarette excise tax increases, smokers may use cigarette price minimization strategies to continue their usual cigarette consumption rather than reducing consumption or quitting. This reduces the public health benefits of the tax increase. This paper estimates the price reductions for a wide-range of strategies, compensating for overlapping strategies.MethodWe performed regression analysis on the 2009–2010 National Adult Tobacco Survey (N = 13,394) to explore price reductions that smokers in the United States obtained from purchasing cigarettes. We examined five cigarette price minimization strategies: 1) purchasing discount brand cigarettes, 2) using price promotions, 3) purchasing cartons, 4) purchasing on Indian reservations, and 5) purchasing online. Price reductions from these strategies were estimated jointly to compensate for overlapping strategies.ResultsEach strategy provided price reductions between 26 and 99 cents per pack. Combined price reductions were possible. Additionally, price promotions were used with regular brands to obtain larger price reductions than when price promotions were used with generic brands.ConclusionSmokers can realize large price reductions from price minimization strategies, and there are many strategies available. Policymakers and public health officials should be aware of the extent that these strategies can reduce cigarette prices.     

State cigarette excise taxes - United States, 2010-2011

Increasing the price of cigarettes reduces the demand for cigarettes, thereby reducing youth smoking initiation and cigarette consumption and decreasing the prevalence of cigarette use in the United States overall, particularly among youths and young adults. The most common way governments have increased the price of cigarettes is by increasing cigarette excise taxes, which currently are imposed by all states and the District of Columbia. To update data on state cigarette excise taxes in 2009, CDC conducted a survey of changes in state cigarette excise taxes during 2010-2011. During that period, eight states increased their cigarette excise taxes, and one state decreased its tax; as a result, the mean state tax increased from $1.34 in 2009 to $1.46 in 2011. Previous evidence indicates that further increases in cigarette excise taxes would be expected to result in further reductions in demand for cigarettes, decreasing smoking and associated morbidity and mortality.     

The association between neighborhood racial composition and menthol cigarette pricing in Boston,MA

ObjectivesTo examine the relationship between neighborhood demographics and pack prices of four brands of mentholated and non-mentholated cigarettes in Boston, Massachusetts.MethodsUsing tobacco pricing survey data collected July 2015 to June 2016, we examined cigarette prices in tobacco retailers (n = 689) located in block groups (n = 325) of Boston. Multilevel models examined both the association of menthol and non-menthol cigarette prices, and the percentage of retailers selling cigarettes below established minimum price in relation to neighborhood demographics.ResultsEach 10 percentage point increase in the proportion of black residents per block group was associated with a price decrease of 3 cents for menthol cigarettes (p < 0.01). Each 10 percentage point increase in the proportion of black residents per block group was associated with a 19 percentage point increase in proportion of retailers selling menthol cigarettes ≥25 cents below minimum price (p < 0.01).ConclusionMentholated cigarettes were priced significantly lower in neighborhoods of color in Boston. Strengthened pricing laws, with consideration given to menthol products in the retail environment, may be needed to address environmental contributors to smoking disparities.     

Effect of a large increase in cigarette tax on cigarette consumption: an empirical analysis of cross-sectional survey data

OBJECTIVES: This study used cigarette price elasticity estimates to assess the possible effects on cigarette consumption of a large increase in cigarette tax. It also investigated different responses to the cigarette tax increase among smokers from different socio-economic backgrounds and with different smoking characteristics. STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional study on 483 valid questionnaires completed during a telephone survey of current smokers aged 15 years and above from all 23 major cities and counties in Taiwan. METHODS: This study analysed the willingness of current smokers to quit smoking or reduce cigarette consumption when faced with a tax increase of NT$22 per pack, which would raise the price of cigarettes by 44%. The Tobit regression model and the maximum likelihood method were used to estimate cigarette demand elasticity. RESULTS: Estimation results yielded a cigarette price elasticity of -0.29 in connection with a 44% increase in the price of cigarettes. This suggests that smokers will have relatively little response to such an event. The most significant response to the price increase was found among women, low-income smokers, moderately addicted smokers, and smokers who regularly purchase low-price cigarettes. A 44% increase in the price of cigarettes would reduce the average annual per capita cigarette consumption in Taiwan by 14.86 packs; a reduction of 12.87%. The tax increase would also boost the Government's cigarette tax revenue by approximately NT$41.4 billion, and increase cigarette merchants' income by approximately NT$27.4 billion. CONCLUSIONS: Since current cigarette prices are low in Taiwan and smokers are relatively insensitive to cigarette price hikes, a large increase in cigarette tax would reduce cigarette consumption effectively, and would also increase the Government's cigarette tax revenue and cigarette merchants' income. Clearly, such a tax would create a win-win outcome for the Government, cigarette merchants and smokers, and it is therefore recommended.     

控烟政策背景下北京市卷烟价格、可负担性及价格对卷烟需求的影响

目的 本研究旨在分析控烟政策背景下北京市2004—2017年卷烟价格、烟草可负担性及卷烟需求价格弹性系数,为控烟政策发展提供参考。方法 从《北京烟草年鉴》获取北京市卷烟销量、北京市卷烟单箱销售额数据,从《北京市统计年鉴》获取人口、收入、卷烟价格指数、居民消费价格指数。采用卷烟零售价格指数调整卷烟价格,描述各年份卷烟价格变化,使用购买100包卷烟所需的花费占收入的比重计算烟草可负担性。使用对数线性回归模型估算卷烟价格需求弹性系数。结果 北京市卷烟名义价格和实际价格在2004—2017年间基本保持上涨,购买100包卷烟的花费占收入的比重整体呈下降趋势,烟草可负担性在近年来在提高。卷烟价格弹性系数为- 0.42,表明价格每上涨10%,卷烟销量下降4.2%（t = - 17.015, P＜0.001）。结论 北京市落实烟税改革状况较好,尽管卷烟价格上升,卷烟可负担性近年来却在提高。提高烟税需要达到一定比例,才可以降低卷烟可负担性,实现控制烟草消费的目的。非价格措施如公共场所全面禁烟也应得到推广。     

Excise tax avoidance: The case of state cigarette taxes

We conduct an applied welfare economics analysis of cigarette tax avoidance. We develop an extension of the standard formula for the optimal Pigouvian corrective tax to incorporate the possibility that consumers avoid the tax by making purchases in nearby lower tax jurisdictions. To provide a key parameter for our formula, we estimate a structural endogenous switching regression model of border-crossing and cigarette prices. In illustrative calculations, we find that for many states, after taking into account tax avoidance the optimal tax is at least 20% smaller than the standard Pigouvian tax that simply internalizes external costs. Our empirical estimate that tax avoidance strongly responds to the price differential is the main reason for this result. We also use our results to examine the benefits of replacing avoidable state excise taxes with a harder-to-avoid federal excise tax on cigarettes.     

Re-exploring the early relationship between teenage cigarette and e-cigarette use using price and tax changes

In 2016, the Surgeon General used longitudinal cohort studies to conclude that youth e-cigarette use is strongly associated with cigarette use. We re-evaluate data from the period of time before the writing of the Surgeon General report, using quasi-experimental methods, and reach the opposite conclusion. We study contemporaneous and intertemporal effects of e-cigarette and cigarette price and tax changes. Our price variation comes from 35,000 retailers participating in the Nielsen Retail Scanner data system. We match price and tax variation to survey data on current use of e-cigarettes and cigarettes for over 94,000 students between grades 6 and 12 in the National Youth Tobacco Survey (NYTS) for years 2011–2015. We find evidence that e-cigarettes and cigarettes are same-period economic substitutes. Coefficient estimates (while imprecisely estimated) also suggest potentially large positive effects of past e-cigarette prices on current cigarette use, indicating intertemporal economic substitution. Our findings raise doubts about the conclusion of government-sponsored reports that e-cigarettes and cigarettes are strongly positively associated. We recommend revisiting and possibly amending this conclusion.     

Smokers' beliefs and attitudes about purchasing cigarettes on the Internet

OBJECTIVES: Our objectives were to explore qualitatively how smokers find out about Internet cigarette sales and what factors motivate them to purchase cigarettes on-line, and to quantitatively describe the Internet cigarette purchasing behaviors and attitudes of Internet cigarette buyers. METHODS: Qualitative in-depth telephone interviews were conducted with 21 adult smokers who had purchased or contemplated purchasing cigarettes online. Findings from the qualitative study were used to develop a survey module on Internet cigarette purchasing behavior that was administered to 187 New Jersey adult smokers. RESULTS: Smokers who purchased cigarettes on-line were primarily motivated by lower prices, which occur because Internet vendors generally sell cigarettes without paying excise taxes for the destination state. Most Internet cigarette buyers first learned about on-line cigarette sales from interpersonal sources who had purchased on-line. New Jersey adult smokers who purchased cheaper cigarettes from the Internet and other lower-taxed sources significantly increased their consumption over time, compared to smokers who reported paying full-price at traditional bricks-and-mortar retail stores. CONCLUSIONS: Policies that have the effect of equalizing Internet cigarette prices with those at retail stores will likely deter smokers from purchasing cigarettes on-line. Internet cigarette vendors should be required to comply with the same provisions that apply to bricks-and-mortar retail vendors and charge appropriate state and local cigarette excise taxes. In the absence of such policies, the sales of cheaper, tax-free cigarettes on-line will undermine the public health benefit of raising cigarette prices.     

The effect of cigarette price increase on the cigarette consumption in Taiwan: evidence from the National Health Interview Surveys on cigarette consumption

Background  

This study uses cigarette price elasticity to evaluate the effect of a new excise tax increase on cigarette consumption and to investigate responses from various types of smokers.     

Cigarette purchasing behaviour in Thailand and Malaysia: Comparative analysis of a semi-monopolistic and a free-market structure

Abstract

A wide range of cigarette prices can undermine the impact of tobacco tax policy when smokers switch to cheaper cigarettes instead of quitting. In order to better understand this behaviour, we study socio-economic determinants of price/brand choices in two different markets: a semi-monopolistic market in Thailand and a competitive market in Malaysia. The hypothesis that the factors affecting the price/brand choice are different in these two markets is analysed by employing a 2005 survey among smokers. This survey provides a unique perspective on market characteristics usually described only in business reports by the tobacco industry.

We found that smokers in Thailand have fewer opportunities to trade down to save money on cigarettes, but pay lower prices than smokers in Malaysia, despite Thailand's higher tax rate. The Malaysian market, on the other hand, offers many possibilities to shop around for cheaper cigarettes. Higher income and education increase the price paid per cigarette in both countries, but the impact of these factors is larger in Malaysia. This has implications for sensitivity to cigarette prices. Using tax policy alone should be a more effective tobacco control measure in Thailand as compared to Malaysia. The effectiveness of a tax increase in Malaysia can be improved by adding programmes focusing on smoking cessation among low-income/low-educated smokers.