Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and the risk of dementia with stroke.

CONTEXT: Next to Alzheimer disease, vascular dementia is the second most common form of dementia in the elderly, yet few specific risk factors have been identified. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relationship of plasma lipids and lipoproteins to dementia with stroke. DESIGN AND SETTING: Prospective longitudinal community-based study over a 7-year period (1991-1998). PARTICIPANTS: A total of 1111 nondemented participants (mean [SD] age, 75.0 [5.9] years) were followed up for an average of 2.1 years (range, 1-7.8 years). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Incident dementia with stroke according to standardized criteria, by baseline levels of total plasma cholesterol and triglycerides, low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, LDL levels corrected for lipoprotein(a), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, lipoprotein(a), and apolipoprotein E genotype. RESULTS: Two hundred eighty-six (25.7%) of the 1111 subjects developed dementia during follow-up; 61 (21.3%) were classified as having dementia with stroke and 225 (78.7%) as having probable Alzheimer disease. Levels of LDL cholesterol were significantly associated with an increased risk of dementia with stroke. Compared with the lowest quartile, the highest quartile of LDL cholesterol was associated with an approximately 3-fold increase in risk of dementia with stroke, adjusting for vascular risk factors and demographic variables (relative risk [RR], 3.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.5-6.1). Levels of LDL corrected for lipoprotein(a) were an even stronger predictor of dementia with stroke in the adjusted multivariate analysis. Compared with the lowest quartile, the RR of dementia with stroke for the highest quartile of lipoprotein(a)-corrected LDL cholesterol was 4.1 (95% CI, 1.8-9.6) after adjusting for vascular factors and demographic variables. Lipid or lipoprotein levels were not associated with the development of Alzheimer disease in our cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Elevated levels of LDL cholesterol were associated with the risk of dementia with stroke in elderly patients. Further study is needed to determine whether treatment of elevated LDL cholesterol levels will reduce the risk of dementia with stroke.     

Hormone replacement therapy after a diagnosis of breast cancer: cancer recurrence and mortality

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether hormone replacement therapy (HRT) after treatment for breast cancer is associated with increased risk of recurrence and mortality. DESIGN: Retrospective observational study. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: Postmenopausal women diagnosed with breast cancer and treated by five Sydney doctors between 1964 and 1999. OUTCOME MEASURES: Times from diagnosis to cancer recurrence or new breast cancer, to death from all causes and to death from primary tumour were compared between women who used HRT for menopausal symptoms after diagnosis and those who did not. Relative risks (RRs) were determined from Cox regression analyses, adjusted for patient and tumour characteristics. RESULTS: 1122 women were followed up for 0-36 years (median, 6.08 years); 154 were lost to follow-up. 286 women used HRT for menopausal symptoms for up to 26 years (median, 1.75 years). Compared with non-users, HRT users had reduced risk of cancer recurrence (adjusted relative risk [RR], 0.62; 95% CI, 0.43-0.87), all-cause mortality (RR, 0.34; 95% CI, 0.19-0.59) and death from primary tumour (RR, 0.40; 95% CI, 0.22-0.72). Continuous combined HRT was associated with a reduced risk of death from primary tumour (RR, 0.32; 95% CI, 0.12-0.88) and all-cause mortality (RR, 0.27; 95% CI, 0.10-0.73). CONCLUSION: HRT use for menopausal symptoms by women treated for primary invasive breast cancer is not associated with an increased risk of breast cancer recurrence or shortened life expectancy.     

Menopausal estrogen and estrogen-progestin replacement therapy and breast cancer risk

CONTEXT: Whether menopausal hormone replacement therapy using a combined estrogen-progestin regimen increases risk of breast cancer beyond that associated with estrogen alone is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether increases in risk associated with the estrogen-progestin regimen are greater than those associated with estrogen alone. DESIGN: Cohort study of follow-up data for 1980-1995 from the Breast Cancer Detection Demonstration Project, a nationwide breast cancer screening program. SETTING: Twenty-nine screening centers throughout the United States. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 46355 postmenopausal women (mean age at start of follow-up, 58 years). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Incident breast cancers by recency, duration, and type of hormone use. RESULTS: During follow-up, 2082 cases of breast cancer were identified. Increases in risk with estrogen only and estrogen-progestin only were restricted to use within the previous 4 years (relative risk [RR], 1.2 [95% confidence interval [CI], 1.0-1.4] and 1.4 [95% CI, 1.1-1.8], respectively); the relative risk increased by 0.01 (95% CI, 0.002-0.03) with each year of estrogen-only use and by 0.08 (95% CI, 0.02-0.16) with each year of estrogen-progestin-only use among recent users, after adjustment for mammographic screening, age at menopause, body mass index (BMI), education, and age. The P value associated with the test of homogeneity of these estimates was .02. Among women with a BMI of 24.4 kg/m2 or less, increases in RR with each year of estrogen-only use and estrogen-progestin-only use among recent users were 0.03 (95% CI, 0.01-0.06) and 0.12 (95% CI, 0.02-0.25), respectively. These associations were evident for the majority of invasive tumors with ductal histology and regardless of extent of invasive disease. Risk in heavier women did not increase with use of estrogen only or estrogen-progestin only. CONCLUSION: Our data suggest that the estrogen-progestin regimen increases breast cancer risk beyond that associated with estrogen alone.     

Incidence of dementia and Alzheimer disease in 2 communities: Yoruba residing in Ibadan, Nigeria, and African Americans residing in Indianapolis, Indiana

CONTEXT: Alzheimer disease (AD) represents a major and increasing public health problem. If populations were identified with significantly lower or higher incidence rates of AD, the search for risk factors in the genesis of AD could be greatly enhanced. OBJECTIVE: To compare incidence rates of dementia and AD in 2 diverse, elderly community-dwelling populations. DESIGN: The Indianapolis-Ibadan Dementia Project, a longitudinal, prospective population-based study consisting of a baseline survey (1992-1993) and 2 subsequent follow-up waves after 2 years (1994-1995) and 5 years (1997-1998). Each wave followed a 2-stage design, with an in-home screening interview followed by a full diagnostic workup of a subsample of participants based on screening performance. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A total of 2459 community-dwelling Yoruba residents of Ibadan, Nigeria, without dementia, and 2147 community-dwelling African American residents of Indianapolis, Ind, without dementia (all aged 65 years or older). The cohorts were followed up for a mean of 5.1 years and 4.7 years, respectively. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incident cases of dementia and AD in each of the 2 populations. RESULTS: The age-standardized annual incidence rates were significantly lower among Yoruba than among African Americans for dementia (Yoruba, 1.35% [95% confidence interval [CI], 1.13%-1.56%]; African Americans, 3.24% [95% CI, 2.11%-4.38%]) and for AD (Yoruba, 1.15% [95% CI, 0.96%-1.35%]; African Americans, 2.52% [95% CI, 1.40%-3.64%]). CONCLUSION: This is the first report of incidence rate differences for dementia and AD in studies of 2 populations from nonindustrialized and industrialized countries using identical methods and the same group of investigators in both sites. Further explorations of these population differences may identify potentially modifiable environmental or genetic factors to account for site differences in dementia and AD.     

Albuminuria and risk of cardiovascular events, death, and heart failure in diabetic and nondiabetic individuals

CONTEXT: Microalbuminuria is a risk factor for cardiovascular (CV) events. The relationship between the degree of albuminuria and CV risk is unclear. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the risk of CV events in high-risk individuals with diabetes mellitus (DM) and without DM who have microalbuminuria and to determine whether levels of albuminuria below the microalbuminuria threshold increase CV risk. DESIGN: The Heart Outcomes Prevention Evaluation study, a cohort study conducted between 1994 and 1999 with a median 4.5 years of follow-up. SETTING: Community and academic practices in North and South America and Europe. PARTICIPANTS: Individuals aged 55 years or more with a history of CV disease (n = 5545) or DM and at least 1 CV risk factor (n = 3498) and a baseline urine albumin/creatinine ratio (ACR) measurement. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, stroke, or CV death); all-cause death; and hospitalization for congestive heart failure. RESULTS: Microalbuminuria was detected in 1140 (32.6%) of those with DM and 823 (14.8%) of those without DM at baseline. Microalbuminuria increased the adjusted relative risk (RR) of major CV events (RR, 1.83; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.64-2.05), all-cause death (RR, 2.09; 95% CI, 1.84-2.38), and hospitalization for congestive heart failure (RR, 3.23; 95% CI, 2.54-4.10). Similar RRs were seen for participants with or without DM, even after adjusting for other CV risk factors (eg, the adjusted RR of the primary aggregate end point was 1.97 [95% CI, 1.68-2.31] in those with DM and 1.61 [95% CI, 1.36-1.90] in those without DM).Compared with the lowest quartile of ACR (<0.22 mg/mmol), the RRs of the primary aggregate end point in the second quartile (ie, ACR range, 0.22-0.57 mg/mmol) was 1.11 (95% CI, 0.95-1.30); third quartile, 1.38 (95% CI, 1.19-1.60; ACR range, 0.58-1.62 mg/mmol); and fourth quartile, 1.97 (95% CI, 1.73-2.25; ACR range, >1.62 mg/mmol) (P for trend <.001, even after excluding those with microalbuminuria). For every 0.4-mg/mmol increase in ACR level, the adjusted hazard of major CV events increased by 5.9% (95% CI, 4.9%-7.0%). CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that any degree of albuminuria is a risk factor for CV events in individuals with or without DM; the risk increases with the ACR, starting well below the microalbuminuria cutoff. Screening for albuminuria identifies people at high risk for CV events.     

Hormone replacement therapy and incidence of Alzheimer disease in older women: the Cache County Study

Context  Previous studies have shown a sex-specific increased risk of Alzheimer disease (AD) in women older than 80 years. Basic neuroscience findings suggest that hormone replacement therapy (HRT) could reduce a woman's risk of AD. Epidemiologic findings on AD and HRT are mixed. Objective  To examine the relationship between use of HRT and risk of AD among elderly women. Design, Setting, and Participants  Prospective study of incident dementia among 1357 men (mean age, 73.2 years) and 1889 women (mean age, 74.5 years) residing in a single county in Utah. Participants were first assessed in 1995-1997, with follow-up conducted in 1998-2000. History of women's current and former use of HRT, as well as of calcium and multivitamin supplements, was ascertained at the initial contact. Main Outcome Measure  Diagnosis of incident AD. Results  Thirty-five men (2.6%) and 88 women (4.7%) developed AD between the initial interview and time of the follow-up (3 years). Incidence among women increased after age 80 years and exceeded the risk among men of similar age (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 2.11; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.22-3.86). Women who used HRT had a reduced risk of AD (26 cases among 1066 women) compared with non-HRT users (58 cases among 800 women) (adjusted HR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.36-0.96). Risk varied with duration of HRT use, so that a woman's sex-specific increase in risk disappeared entirely with more than 10 years of treatment (7 cases among 427 women). Adjusted HRs were 0.41 (95% CI, 0.17-0.86) for HRT users compared with nonusers and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.31-1.67) compared with men. No similar effect was seen with calcium or multivitamin use. Almost all of the HRT-related reduction in incidence reflected former use of HRT (9 cases among 490 women; adjusted HR, 0.33 [95% CI, 0.15-0.65]). There was no effect with current HRT use (17 cases among 576 women; adjusted HR, 1.08 [95% CI, 0.59-1.91]) unless duration of treatment exceeded 10 years (6 cases among 344 women; adjusted HR, 0.55 [95% CI, 0.21-1.23]). Conclusions  Prior HRT use is associated with reduced risk of AD, but there is no apparent benefit with current HRT use unless such use has exceeded 10 years.      

Risk of new vertebral fracture in the year following a fracture

CONTEXT: Vertebral fractures significantly increase lifetime risk of future fractures, but risk of further vertebral fractures in the period immediately following a vertebral fracture has not been evaluated. OBJECTIVE: To determine the incidence of further vertebral fracture in the year following a vertebral fracture. DESIGN AND SETTING: Analysis of data from 4 large 3-year osteoporosis treatment trials conducted at 373 study centers in North America, Europe, Australia, and New Zealand from November 1993 to April 1998. SUBJECTS: Postmenopausal women who had been randomized to a placebo group and for whom vertebral fracture status was known at entry (n = 2725). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Occurrence of radiographically identified vertebral fracture during the year following an incident vertebral fracture. RESULTS: Subjects were a mean age of 74 years and had a mean of 28 years since menopause. The cumulative incidence of new vertebral fractures in the first year was 6.6%. Presence of 1 or more vertebral fractures at baseline increased risk of sustaining a vertebral fracture by 5-fold during the initial year of the study compared with the incidence in subjects without prevalent vertebral fractures at baseline (relative risk [RR], 5.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.1-8.4; P<.001). Among the 381 participants who developed an incident vertebral fracture, the incidence of a new vertebral fracture in the subsequent year was 19.2% (95% CI, 13.6%-24.8%). This risk was also increased in the presence of prevalent vertebral fractures (RR, 9.3; 95% CI, 1.2-71.6; P =.03). CONCLUSION: Our data indicate that women who develop a vertebral fracture are at substantial risk for additional fracture within the next year.     

Prevalence of gestational diabetes mellitus among Swampy Cree women in Moose Factory, James Bay

BACKGROUND: Although high rates of gestational diabetes mellitus have been documented in native populations, few studies have examined rates of the disease among native Indians in Canada. The authors conducted a study to estimate the prevalence of gestational diabetes among Swampy Cree women, to identify factors predictive of the occurrence of gestational diabetes, and to identify delivery and infant outcomes related to the presence of the disease. METHODS: Information on Swampy Cree women who gave birth at Weeneebayko Hospital, Moose Factory, James Bay, Ont., between 1987 and 1995 was obtained from medical charts. Patients with and without gestational diabetes were compared. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent predictors of gestational diabetes. Delivery and infant outcomes that occurred secondary to gestational diabetes were also identified by means of logistic regression. RESULTS: A total of 1401 deliveries occurred at Weeneebayko Hospital over the study period, of which 1298 were included in the study. Gestational diabetes was diagnosed in 110 (8.5% [95% confidence interval (CI) 6.9%-9.9%]) of the 1298 pregnancies. Factors predictive of gestational diabetes were age 35 years or more (relative risk [RR] 4.1, 95% CI 1.5-11.7), a history of gestational diabetes in a previous pregnancy (RR 6.4, 95% CI 3.5-11.7), diastolic blood pressure of 80 mm Hg or higher at the first prenatal visit (RR 1.7, 95% CI 1.1-2.8), weight greater than 80 kg at the first prenatal visit (RR 4.9, 95% CI 1.8-12.9) and having a first-degree relative with diabetes (RR 3.0, 95% CI 1.4-6.1). The only delivery outcome independently associated with the presence of gestational diabetes was an increased likelihood of needing assisted delivery (forceps or vacuum extraction) (RR 2.8, 95% CI 1.1-7.0). Shoulder dystocia was indirectly associated with gestational diabetes owing to increased infant birth weight. Infant outcomes associated with the presence of gestational diabetes were birth weight greater than 4500 g (RR 2.4, 95% CI 1.4-3.8), hyperbilirubinemia (RR 2.9, 95% CI 1.4-6.1), hypoglycemia (RR 7.3, 95% CI 3.7-14.4) and hypocalcemia (RR 8.9, 95% CI 2.3-33.7). INTERPRETATION: Gestational diabetes occurred in a significant minority of Swampy Cree women and was associated with a number of adverse outcomes.     

Incidence of cervical squamous intraepithelial lesions in HIV-infected women

CONTEXT: Women infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) are at increased risk for cervical squamous intraepithelial lesions (SILs), the precursors to invasive cervical cancer. However, little is known about the causes of this association. OBJECTIVES: To compare the incidence of SILs in HIV-infected vs uninfected women and to determine the role of risk factors in the pathogenesis of such lesions. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study conducted from October 1,1991, to June 30, 1996. SETTING: Urban clinics for sexually transmitted diseases, HIV infection, and methadone maintenance. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 328 HIV-infected and 325 uninfected women with no evidence of SILs by Papanicolaou test or colposcopy at study entry. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Incident SILs confirmed by biopsy, compared by HIV status and risk factors. RESULTS: During about 30 months of follow-up, 67 (20%) HIV-infected and 16 (5%) uninfected women developed a SIL (incidence of 8.3 and 1.8 cases per 100 person-years in sociodemographically similar infected and uninfected women, respectively [P<.001]). Of incident SILs, 91% were low grade in HIV-infected women vs 75% in uninfected women. No invasive cervical cancers were identified. By multivariate analysis, significant risk factors for incident SILs were HIV infection (relative risk [RR], 3.2; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.7-6.1), transient human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA detection (RR, 5.5; 95% CI, 1.4-21.9), persistent HPV DNA types other than 16 or 18 (RR, 7.6; 95% CI, 1.9-30.3), persistent HPV DNA types 16 and 18 (RR, 11.6; 95% CI, 2.7-50.7), and younger age (<37.5 years; RR, 2.1; 95% CI, 1.3-3.4). CONCLUSIONS: In our study, 1 in 5 HIV-infected women with no evidence of cervical disease developed biopsy-confirmed SILs within 3 years, highlighting the importance of cervical cancer screening programs in this population.     

Fruit and vegetable intake in relation to risk of ischemic stroke.

CONTEXT: Few studies have evaluated the relationship between fruit and vegetable intake and cardiovascular disease. OBJECTIVE: To examine the associations between fruit and vegetable intake and ischemic stroke. DESIGN, SETTING, AND SUBJECTS: Prospective cohort studies, including 75 596 women aged 34 to 59 years in the Nurses' Health Study with 14 years of follow-up (1980-1994), and 38683 men aged 40 to 75 years in the Health Professionals' Follow-up Study with 8 years of follow-up (1986-1994). All individuals were free of cardiovascular disease, cancer, and diabetes at baseline. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Incidence of ischemic stroke by quintile of fruit and vegetable intake. RESULTS: A total of 366 women and 204 men had an ischemic stroke. After controlling for standard cardiovascular risk factors, persons in the highest quintile of fruit and vegetable intake (median of 5.1 servings per day among men and 5.8 servings per day among women) had a relative risk (RR) of 0.69 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.52-0.92) compared with those in the lowest quintile. An increment of 1 serving per day of fruits or vegetables was associated with a 6% lower risk of ischemic stroke (RR, 0.94; 95 % CI, 0.90-0.99; P =.01, test for trend). Cruciferous vegetables (RR, 0.68 for an increment of 1 serving per day; 95% CI, 0.49-0.94), green leafy vegetables (RR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.62-0.99), citrus fruit including juice (RR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.68-0.96), and citrus fruit juice (RR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.61-0.93) contributed most to the apparent protective effect of total fruits and vegetables. Legumes or potatoes were not associated with lower ischemic stroke risk. The multivariate pooled RR for total stroke was 0.96 (95% CI, 0.93-1.00) for each increment of 2 servings per day. CONCLUSIONS: These data support a protective relationship between consumption of fruit and vegetables-particularly cruciferous and green leafy vegetables and citrus fruit and juice-and ischemic stroke risk.     

Adult weight change and risk of postmenopausal breast cancer

Context  Endogenous hormones are a primary cause of breast cancer. Adiposity affects circulating hormones, particularly in postmenopausal women, and may be a modifiable risk factor for breast cancer. Objective  To assess the associations of adult weight change since age 18 years and since menopause with the risk of breast cancer among postmenopausal women. Design, Setting, and Participants  Prospective cohort study within the Nurses' Health Study. A total of 87 143 postmenopausal women, aged 30 to 55 years and free of cancer, were followed up for up to 26 years (1976-2002) to assess weight change since age 18 years. Weight change since menopause was assessed among 49 514 women who were followed up for up to 24 years. Main Outcome Measure  Incidence of invasive breast cancer. Results  Overall, 4393 cases of invasive breast cancer were documented. Compared with those who maintained weight, women who gained 25.0 kg or more since age 18 years were at an increased risk of breast cancer (relative risk [RR], 1.45; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.27-1.66; P<.001 for trend), with a stronger association among women who have never taken postmenopausal hormones (RR,1.98; 95% CI, 1.55-2.53). Compared with weight maintenance, women who gained 10.0 kg or more since menopause were at an increased risk of breast cancer (RR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.03-1.35; P  = .002 for trend). Women who had never used postmenopausal hormones, lost 10.0 kg or more since menopause, and kept the weight off were at a lower risk than those who maintained weight (RR, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.21-0.86; P = .01 for weight loss trend). Overall, 15.0% (95% CI, 12.8%-17.4%) of breast cancer cases in this population may be attributable to weight gain of 2.0 kg or more since age 18 years and 4.4% (95% CI, 3.6%-5.5%) attributable to weight gain of 2.0 kg or more since menopause. Among those who did not use postmenopausal hormones, the population attributable risks are 24.2% (95% CI, 19.8%-29.1%) for a weight gain since age 18 years and 7.6% (95% CI, 5.9%-9.7%) for weight gain since menopause. Conclusions  These data suggest that weight gain during adult life, specifically since menopause, increases the risk of breast cancer among postmenopausal women, whereas weight loss after menopause is associated with a decreased risk of breast cancer. Thus, in addition to other known benefits of healthy weight, our results provide another reason for women approaching menopause to maintain or lose weight, as appropriate.      

Effect of treating isolated systolic hypertension on the risk of developing various types and subtypes of stroke: the Systolic Hypertension in the Elderly Program (SHEP)

CONTEXT: The Systolic Hypertension in the Elderly Program (SHEP) demonstrated that treating isolated systolic hypertension in older patients decreased incidence of total stroke, but whether all types of stroke were reduced was not evaluated. OBJECTIVE: To investigate antihypertensive drug treatment effects on incidence of stroke by type and subtype, timing of strokes, case-fatality rates, stroke residual effects, and relationship of attained systolic blood pressure to stroke incidence. DESIGN: The SHEP study, a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial began March 1, 1985, and had an average follow-up of 4.5 years. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A total of 4736 men and women aged 60 years or older with isolated systolic hypertension at 16 clinical centers in the United States. INTERVENTIONS: Patients were randomly assigned to receive treatment with 12.5 mg/d of chlorthalidone (step 1); either 25 mg/d of atenolol or 0.05 mg/d of reserpine (step 2) could be added (n = 2365); or placebo (n = 2371). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Occurrence, type and subtype, and timing of first strokes and stroke fatalities; and change in stroke incidence for participants (whether in active treatment or placebo groups) reaching study-specific systolic blood pressure goal (decrease of at least 20 mm Hg from baseline to below 160 mm Hg) compared with participants not reaching goal. RESULTS: A total of 85 and 132 participants in the active treatment and placebo groups, respectively, had ischemic strokes (adjusted relative risk [RR], 0.63; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.48-0.82); 9 and 19 had hemorrhagic strokes (adjusted RR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.21-1.02); and 9 and 8 had strokes of unknown type (adjusted RR, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.40-2. 73), respectively. Four subtypes of ischemic stroke were observed in active treatment and placebo group participants, respectively, as follows: for lacunar, n = 23 and n = 43 (adjusted RR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.32-0.88); for embolic, n = 9 and n = 16 (adjusted RR, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.25-1.27); for atherosclerotic, n = 13 and n = 13 (adjusted RR, 0. 99; 95% CI, 0.46-2.15); and for unknown subtype, n = 40 and n = 60 (adjusted RR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.43-0.96). Treatment effect was observed within 1 year for hemorrhagic strokes but was not seen until the second year for ischemic strokes. Stroke incidence significantly decreased in participants attaining study-specific systolic blood pressure goals. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, antihypertensive drug treatment reduced the incidence of both hemorrhagic and ischemic (including lacunar) strokes. Reduction in stroke incidence occurred when specific systolic blood pressure goals were attained. JAMA. 2000;284:465-471     

Estrogen replacement therapy and ovarian cancer mortality in a large prospective study of US women

CONTEXT: Postmenopausal estrogen use is associated with increased risk of endometrial and breast cancer, 2 hormone-related cancers. The effect of postmenopausal estrogen use on ovarian cancer is not established. OBJECTIVES: To examine the association between postmenopausal estrogen use and ovarian cancer mortality and to determine whether the association differs according to duration and recency of use. DESIGN AND SETTING: The American Cancer Society's Cancer Prevention Study II, a prospective US cohort study with mortality follow-up from 1982 to 1996. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 211 581 postmenopausal women who completed a baseline questionnaire in 1982 and had no history of cancer, hysterectomy, or ovarian surgery at enrollment. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Ovarian cancer mortality, compared among never users, users at baseline, and former users as well as by total years of use of estrogen replacement therapy (ERT). RESULTS: A total of 944 ovarian cancer deaths were recorded in 14 years of follow-up. Women who were using ERT at baseline had higher death rates from ovarian cancer than never users (rate ratio [RR], 1.51; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.16-1.96). Risk was slightly but not significantly increased among former estrogen users (RR, 1.16; 95% CI, 0.99-1.37). Duration of use was associated with increased risk in both baseline and former users. Baseline users with 10 or more years of use had an RR of 2.20 (95% CI, 1.53-3.17), while former users with 10 or more years of use had an RR of 1.59 (95% CI, 1.13-2.25). Annual age-adjusted ovarian cancer death rates per 100 000 women were 64.4 for baseline users with 10 or more years of use, 38.3 for former users with 10 or more years of use, and 26.4 for never users. Among former users with 10 or more years of use, risk decreased with time since last use reported at study entry (RR for last use <15 years ago, 2.05; 95% CI, 1.29-3.25; RR for last use >/=15 years ago, 1.31; 95% CI, 0.79-2.17). CONCLUSIONS: In this population, postmenopausal estrogen use for 10 or more years was associated with increased risk of ovarian cancer mortality that persisted up to 29 years after cessation of use.     

Risk of breast cancer with oral contraceptive use in women with a family history of breast cancer

CONTEXT: Oral contraceptive (OC) use is weakly associated with breast cancer risk in the general population, but the association among women with a familial predisposition to breast cancer is less clear. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the association between OC use and risk of breast cancer is influenced by family history of the disease. DESIGN AND SETTING: Historical cohort study of 426 families of breast cancer probands diagnosed between 1944 and 1952 at the Tumor Clinic of the University of Minnesota Hospital. Follow-up data on families were collected by telephone interview between 1991 and 1996. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 394 sisters and daughters of the probands, 3002 granddaughters and nieces, and 2754 women who married into the families. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Relative risk (RR) of breast cancer associated with history of OC use by relationship to proband. RESULTS: After accounting for age and birth cohort, ever having used OCs was associated with significantly increased risk of breast cancer among sisters and daughters of the probands (RR, 3.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.6-6.7), but not among granddaughters and nieces of the probands (RR, 1.2; 95% CI, 0.8-2.0) or among marry-ins (RR, 1.2; 95% CI, 0.8-1.9). Results were essentially unchanged after adjustment for parity, age at first birth, age at menarche, age at menopause, oophorectomy, smoking, and education. The elevated risk among women with a first-degree family history of breast cancer was most evident for OC use during or prior to 1975, when formulations were likely to contain higher dosages of estrogen and progestins (RR, 3.3; 95% CI, 1.5-7.2). A small number of breast cancer cases (n = 2) limited the statistical power to detect risk among women with a first-degree relative with breast cancer and OC use after 1975. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that women who have ever used earlier formulations of OCs and who also have a first-degree relative with breast cancer may be at particularly high risk for breast cancer. Further studies of women with a strong family history who have used more recent lower-dosage formulations of OCs are needed to determine how women with a familial predisposition to breast cancer should be advised regarding OC use today. JAMA. 2000;284:1791-1798.     

Long or highly irregular menstrual cycles as a marker for risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus.

CONTEXT: Although oligomenorrhea has been associated cross-sectionally with insulin resistance and glucose intolerance, it is not known whether oligomenorrhea is a marker for increased future risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). OBJECTIVE: To prospectively assess risk of type 2 DM in women with a history of long or highly irregular menstrual cycles. DESIGN AND SETTING: The Nurses' Health Study II, a prospective observational cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 101 073 women who had no prior history of DM and who reported their usual menstrual cycle pattern at age 18 to 22 years on the baseline (1989) questionnaire. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Incident reports of DM, with follow-up through 1997, compared among women categorized by menstrual cycle length (5 categories). RESULTS: During 564 333 person-years of follow-up, there were 507 cases of type 2 DM. Compared with women with a usual cycle length of 26 to 31 days (referent category) at age 18 to 22 years, the relative risk (RR) of type 2 DM among women with a menstrual cycle length that was 40 days or more or was too irregular to estimate was 2.08 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.62-2.66), adjusting for body mass index at age 18 years and several other potential confounding variables. The RR of type 2 DM associated with long or highly irregular menstrual cycles was greater in obese women, but was also increased in nonobese women (at body mass indexes at age 18 years of <25, 25-29, and >/=30 kg/m, RRs were 1.67 [95% CI, 1.14-2.45], 1.74 [95% CI, 1.07-2.82], and 3.86 [95% CI, 2.33-6.38], respectively). CONCLUSION: Women with long or highly irregular menstrual cycles have a significantly increased risk for developing type 2 DM that is not completely explained by obesity.     

Dietary intake of antioxidants and risk of Alzheimer disease

Context  Laboratory findings have suggested that oxidative stress may contribute to the pathogenesis of Alzheimer disease. Therefore, the risk of Alzheimer disease might be reduced by intake of antioxidants that counteract the detrimental effects of oxidative stress. Objective  To determine whether dietary intake of antioxidants is related to risk of Alzheimer disease. Design and Setting  The Rotterdam Study, a population-based, prospective cohort study conducted in the Netherlands. Participants  A total of 5395 participants who, at baseline (1990-1993), were aged at least 55 years, free of dementia, and noninstitutionalized and had reliable dietary assessment. Participants were reexamined in 1993-1994 and 1997-1999 and were continuously monitored for incident dementia. Main Outcome Measures  Incidence of Alzheimer disease, based on Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Revised Third Edition (DSM-III-R) criteria and National Institute of Neurological and Communicative Disorders and Stroke and Alzheimer Disease and Related Disorders Association (NINCDS-ADRDA) criteria, associated with dietary intake of beta carotene, flavonoids, vitamin C, and vitamin E. Results  After a mean follow-up of 6 years, 197 participants developed dementia, of whom 146 had Alzheimer disease. When adjustments were made for age, sex, baseline Mini-Mental State Examination score, alcohol intake, education, smoking habits, pack-years of smoking, body mass index, total energy intake, presence of carotid plaques, and use of antioxidative supplements, high intake of vitamin C and vitamin E was associated with lower risk of Alzheimer disease (rate ratios [RRs] per 1-SD increase in intake were 0.82 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 0.68-0.99] and 0.82 [95% CI, 0.66-1.00], respectively). Among current smokers, this relationship was most pronounced (RRs, 0.65 [95% CI, 0.37-1.14] and 0.58 [95% CI, 0.30-1.12], respectively) and also was present for intake of beta carotene (RR, 0.49 [95% CI, 0.27-0.92]) and flavonoids (RR, 0.54 [95% CI, 0.31-0.96]). The associations did not vary by education or apolipoprotein E genotype. Conclusion  High dietary intake of vitamin C and vitamin E may lower the risk of Alzheimer disease.      

Predictors of acute complications in children with type 1 diabetes

CONTEXT: Diabetic ketoacidosis and severe hypoglycemia are acute complications of type 1 diabetes that are related, respectively, to insufficient or excessive insulin treatment. However, little is known about additional modifiable risk factors. OBJECTIVE: To examine the incidence of ketoacidosis and severe hypoglycemia in children with diabetes and to determine the factors that predict these complications. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A cohort of 1243 children from infancy to age 19 years with type 1 diabetes who resided in the Denver, Colo, metropolitan area were followed up prospectively for 3994 person-years from January 1, 1996, through December 31, 2000. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidence of ketoacidosis leading to hospital admission or emergency department visit and severe hypoglycemia (loss of consciousness, seizure, or hospital admission or emergency department visit). RESULTS: The incidence of ketoacidosis was 8 per 100 person-years and increased with age in girls (4 per 100 person-years in < 7; 8 in 7-12; and 12 in > or =13 years; P<.001 for trend). In multivariate analyses, sex-adjusted and stratified by age (<13 vs > or =13 years), the risk of ketoacidosis in younger children increased with higher hemoglobin A(1c) (HbA(1c)) (relative risk [RR], 1.68 per 1% increase; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.45-1.94) and higher reported insulin dose (RR, 1.40 per 0.2 U/kg per day; 95% CI, 1.20-1.64). In older children, the risk of ketoacidosis increased with higher HbA(1c) (RR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.30-1.58), higher reported insulin dose (RR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.02-1.25), underinsurance (RR, 2.18; 95% CI, 1.65-2.95), and presence of psychiatric disorders (for boys, RR, 1.59; 95% CI, 0.96-2.65; for girls, RR, 3.22; 95% CI, 2.25-4.61). The incidence of severe hypoglycemia was 19 per 100 person-years (P<.001 for trend) and decreased with age in girls (24 per 100 patient-years in < 7, 19 in 7-12, and 14 in > or =13 years). In younger children, the risk of severe hypoglycemia increased with diabetes duration (RR, 1.39 per 5 years; 95% CI, 1.16-1.69) and underinsurance (RR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.08-1.65). In older children, the risk of severe hypoglycemia increased with duration (RR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.25-1.51), underinsurance (RR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.11-1.81), lower HbA(1c) (RR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.12-1.32), and presence of psychiatric disorders (RR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.23-1.98). Eighty percent of episodes occurred among the 20% of children who had recurrent events. CONCLUSIONS: Some children with diabetes remain at high risk for ketoacidosis and severe hypoglycemia. Age- and sex-specific incidence patterns suggest that ketoacidosis is a challenge in adolescent girls while severe hypoglycemia continues to affect disproportionally the youngest patients and boys of all ages. The pattern of modifiable risk factors indicates that underinsured children and those with psychiatric disorders or at the extremes of the HbA(1c) distribution should be targeted for specific interventions.     

Calcium-channel blockers and cognitive function in elderly people: results from the Canadian Study of Health and Aging

BACKGROUND: Concern has been raised about the potential for adverse cognitive effects associated with the use of calcium-channel blockers (CCBs) in older people. This study was undertaken to examine prospectively the association between the use of these and other antihypertensive drugs and cognitive function. METHODS: The authors examined data from the Canadian Study of Health and Aging (CSHA), a population-based, prospective 5-year investigation of the epidemiology of dementia and other health problems in Canadians 65 years of age and older. The risk of cognitive decline, as indicated by a decline in performance on the Modified Mini-Mental State (3MS) examination over the 5-year period, was assessed in relation to the use of antihypertensive and diuretic drugs by 205 subjects with a history of hypertension and no evidence of dementia at baseline. RESULTS: The proportion of subjects whose cognitive performance declined over the study period was significantly higher in the group using CCBs than in the group using other antihypertensive agents (75% v. 59%). The adjusted odds ratio (OR) for a significant decline in cognitive performance (defined as a decrease in 3MS score of 10 points or more) was 2.28 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.12-4.66) for subjects using CCBs. The adjusted ORs (and 95% CIs) for cognitive decline in subjects using selected antihypertensive agents or diuretics relative to those exposed to beta-blockers were as follows: angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitor, OR 1.36 (95% CI 0.41-4.55); diuretic or other antihypertensive drug, OR 1.45 (95% CI 0.51-4.14); dihydropyridine CCB (nifedipine), OR 1.94 (95% CI 0.52-7.27) and non-dihydropyridine CCB (diltiazem or verapamil), OR 3.72 (95% CI 1.22-11.36). INTERPRETATION: Older people taking CCBs were significantly more likely than those using other agents to experience cognitive decline. These findings are consistent with the results of previous cross-sectional research and emphasize the need for further trials to examine the associations between CCB use, blood pressure and cognitive impairment in elderly patients.     

Maternal mortality in women aged 35 years or older: United States

To examine maternal mortality among women aged 35 years or older, we used death certificates from the United States for 1974 through 1978. There were 425 maternal deaths, corresponding to a mortality rate of 58.3 deaths per 100,000 live births. This rate was higher than the rate for women 20 through 34 years of age (race-adjusted relative risk [RR] = 4.0; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.6 to 4.4). The leading causes of death were obstetric hemorrhage and embolism. Black women had higher mortality rates than white women for deaths without abortive outcomes (RR = 3.3; CI, 2.7 to 4.1) and with abortive outcomes (RR = 9.4; 95% CI, 5.8 to 15.3), and the latter difference was largely due to a higher rate of deaths associated with ectopic pregnancy among black women. From 1974 through 1978, compared with 1982, maternal mortality rates for women aged 35 years or older reported by the National Center for Health Statistics declined approximately 50%. Among white women, changes in age and parity accounted for less than half of this decrease, suggesting that improvements have occurred in age- and parity-specific mortality for women aged 35 years or older.     

Impaired chronotropic response to exercise stress testing as a predictor of mortality

CONTEXT: Chronotropic incompetence, an attenuated heart rate response to exercise, is a predictor of all-cause mortality in healthy populations. This association may be independent of exercise-induced myocardial perfusion defects. OBJECTIVE: To examine the prognostic significance of chronotropic incompetence in a low-risk cohort of patients referred for treadmill stress testing with thallium imaging. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study conducted between September 1990 and December 1993. SETTING: Tertiary care academic medical center. PATIENTS: Consecutive patients (1877 men and 1076 women; mean age, 58 years) who were not taking beta-blockers and who were referred for symptom-limited treadmill thallium testing. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Association of chronotropic incompetence, defined as either failure to achieve 85% of the age-predicted maximum heart rate or a low chronotropic index, a heart rate response measure that accounts for effects of age, resting heart rate, and physical fitness, with all-cause mortality during 2 years of follow-up. RESULTS: Three hundred sixteen patients (11%) failed to reach 85% of the age-adjusted maximum heart rate, 762 (26%) had a low chronotropic index, and 612 (21%) had thallium perfusion defects. Ninety-one patients died during the follow-up period. After adjustment for age, sex, thallium perfusion defects, and other confounders, failure to reach 85% of the age-predicted maximum heart rate was associated with increased risk of death (adjusted relative risk [RR], 1.84; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.13-3.00; P=.01), as was a low chronotropic index (adjusted RR, 2.19; 95% CI, 1.43-3.44; P<.001). CONCLUSION: Among patients with known or suspected coronary disease, chronotropic incompetence is independently predictive of all-cause mortality, even after considering thallium perfusion defects. Incorporation of chronotropic response into the routine interpretation of stress thallium studies may improve the prognostic power of this test.