Prognostic values of IL-6, IL-8, and IL-10 in acute pancreatitis

GOALS: The prognostic importance of interleukin-6 (IL-6), IL-8, and IL-10 in the prediction of acute pancreatitis severity. BACKGROUND: Early assessment of severity in acute pancreatitis could help the patients who are at risk of developing complications. Unfortunately, the used prognostic scoring systems generally are only moderately accurate in assessing disease severity. STUDY: We studied 117 consecutive patients with a diagnosis of acute pancreatitis admitted to our hospital during the past 2 years. Laboratory parameters and cytokines were analyzed from serum taken routinely on admission. Severity criteria were noted for each patient using Ranson, Glasgow, and APACHE II scoring systems. Local and systemic complications, developed during a follow-up period, were classified by Atlanta criteria. RESULTS: IL-6 was the only parameter that statistically significantly predicted complicated acute pancreatitis (P<0.05). IL-8 and IL-10 and the 3 prognostic scoring systems used did not properly assess complicated versus noncomplicated acute pancreatitis. CONCLUSIONS: Our prospective study supported the potential importance of IL-6 in the early assessment of complicated acute pancreatitis, but also suggested that pancreatitis classified as complicated in a large number of patients could not be correctly predicted with the Ranson, Glasgow, and APACHE II scoring systems.     

Balthazar computed tomography severity index is superior to Ranson criteria and APACHE II and III scoring systems in predicting acute pancreatitis outcome

BACKGROUND AND GOALS: Acute pancreatitis runs an unpredictable course. We prospectively analyzed the prognostic usefulness of four different scoring systems in separately assessing three variables; acute pancreatitis severity, development of organ failure and pancreatic necrosis. STUDY: 78 patients with acute pancreatitis were studied prospectively. Data pertinent to scoring systems were recorded 24 hours (APACHE II and III scores), 48 hours (Ranson score) and 72 hours (Balthazar computed tomography severity index) after admission. Statistical analysis was performed by using receiver operating characteristic curves and by comparing likelihood ratios of positive test (LRPT) for all three outcome variables. RESULTS: 44 patients were classified as mild and 34 as severe pancreatitis. When we compared LRPT, only that for the Balthazar score (11.2157) was able to generate large and conclusive changes from pretest to post-test probability in acute pancreatitis severity prediction. LRPT were 2.4157 for Ranson, 4.0980 for APACHE II and 3.6670 for APACHE III score. The APACHE II and III scores and Ranson criteria performed slightly better than the Balthazar score in predicting organ failure (LRPT: 4.0667, 3.2892, 3.0362 and 1.7941 respectively), while when predicting pancreatic necrosis the APACHE II and III performed slightly better than the Ranson score (LRPT: 2.0769, 2.7500 and 1.7813 respectively). CONCLUSIONS: In all outcome measures the APACHE scores generate small and of similar extent changes in probability. The Balthazar score is superior to other scoring systems in predicting acute pancreatitis severity and pancreatic necrosis. However the Ranson and APACHE scores perform slightly better with respect to organ failure prediction.     

Pancreatitis in HIV infection: predictors of severity

OBJECTIVES: Acute pancreatitis occurs at greater frequency in HIV-infected patients than in the general population. We set out to determine the frequency of severe acute pancreatitis in HIV-positive patients and to study the accuracy of The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II), Ranson, and Glasgow scales for prediction of clinical disease severity. METHODS: A total of 73 HIV-infected patients with acute pancreatitis were identified retrospectively. Demographic and clinical parameters as well as clinical outcomes were established. Sensitivities and specificities of the three scales mentioned above were calculated and compared. RESULTS: Of the patients, 63 (83.6%) had AIDS. The majority of cases were medication-induced (46%) or idiopathic (26%). The incidence seemed to be declining in the late 1990s. Eleven patients (15%) had a severe course as defined by death, admission to the intensive care unit, or local complications requiring surgery. Eighteen case (24.6%) were considered severe as defined by the criteria established at the International Symposium on Acute Pancreatitis in Atlanta in 1992. APACHE II criteria best predicted outcome with an overall accuracy of 75% (Glasgow 69%, Ranson 48%). Maximal accuracy was achieved with cut-offs of 14 for APACHE II and 4 for the Glasgow and Ranson criteria. CONCLUSIONS: HIV-infected patients have a clinical outcome similar to that of the general population. Clinical predictive scales are applicable and useful in this population.     

High dose octreotide in the management of acute pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Controversial results are present in clinical studies on the effect of octreotide in the treatment of patients with acute pancreatitis. The aim of this study was to analyze the effect of octreotide in biochemical, physiological and radiological prognostic criteria of acute pancreatitis at the end of 48 hours. METHODOLOGY: Between January 1995 and August 1997, we conducted a prospective controlled clinical study. Forty-three patients with a diagnosis of acute pancreatitis (acute abdominal pain and a serum amylase >1000 IU/liter) were sequentially allocated to treatment with high dose octreotide (N=22), 0.5 microg/kg/hr by continued i.v. infusion, or designated as controls (N=21). The other aspects of the treatment protocol were similar in both groups. RESULTS: There was no significant difference between the two groups on admission with regard to Ranson criteria (P=0.13). A significant difference was not observed in fasting blood glucose, albumin, calcium, hemoglobin, hematocrit, white blood cell count, LDH, AST, urea, systolic and diastolic pressure, heart rate and pyrexial changes between the two groups at admission and at the end of 48 hours (p>0.05), but serum amylase changes were significantly different (p=0.000). Pleural effusion at the end of 48 hours was more frequent in the octreotide treated group (22.7% vs. 9.5%, p>0.05), but pancreatic edema (52.4% vs. 13.6%, p=0.022), ascites (19.5% vs. 4.5%, p>0.05) and retroperitoneal edema (4.76% vs. 4.5%, p>0.05) were observed more frequently in the control group. One death occurred in each group. Patients treated with octreotide tolerated oral intake sooner than the control group (3.76 vs. 4.9 days, p=0.041). CONCLUSIONS: Although biochemical and physiologic changes between the two groups were not significantly different, a more pronounced decrease in serum amylase levels, improvements in pancreatic edema and earlier return to oral intake in the high dose-octreotide group suggest that octreotide may have a beneficial role in the management of acute pancreatitis.     

Hemoconcentration: an early marker of severe and/or necrotizing pancreatitis? A critical appraisal

OBJECTIVE: A study was designed to reevaluate hemoconcentration as an early marker of severe and/or necrotizing pancreatitis and compare it against contrast-enhanced CT, the gold standard to diagnose acute necrotizing pancreatitis. METHODS: This prospective study covers the years 1988-1999 for 316 patients (202 male, 114 female) with a first attack of acute pancreatitis. The role of the hematocrit as an early marker of severe and/or necrotizing pancreatitis has been retrospectively evaluated against the prospectively obtained data. They all underwent a CT within 72 h after admission. In addition to the CT-controlled diagnosis of interstitial/necrotizing pancreatitis, the following variables were used to assess severity: initial organ failure according to the Atlanta classification; indication for artificial ventilation and/or dialysis; Ranson score adjusted for etiology; Imrie score; Balthazar score; length of stay in intensive care unit (ICU); total hospital stay; development of pancreatic pseudocysts; indication for operation (necrosectomy); and mortality. Hemoconcentration on admission was defined as a hematocrit level >43.0% for male and >39.6% for female patients. Logistic regression was used to assess the correlation between hemoconcentration and the severity of variables. RESULTS: Hematocrit, as a single parameter measured on admission, had the same sensitivity and negative predictive value as the more complicated Ranson and Imrie scores obtained only after 48 h. However, its specificity, positive predictive value, and total accuracy were lower. Hemoconcentration significantly correlated with the Balthazar score (differential diagnosis between interstitial and necrotizing pancreatitis), stay in ICU, and total hospital stay. Sensitivity and specificity of the hematocrit cut-off level of 43.0% for male and 39.6% for female patients to detect necrotizing pancreatitis were 74% and 45%, respectively. The positive predictive value was 24% and the negative predictive value 88%. Receiver operation characteristics (ROC) curve values for several cut-offs did not result in more ideal levels. CONCLUSION: Hemoconcentration does not significantly correlate with important clinical outcome variables of acute pancreatitis including organ failure and mortality rate. Its prognostic value is comparable to the more complicated Ranson and Imrie scores obtained only after 48 h. The major value of this single easily obtainable and cheap parameter on admission lies in its high negative predictive value. In the absence of hemoconcentration, contrast-enhanced CT may be unnecessary on admission unless the patient does not improve.     

Comparison of scoring systems in predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis

AIM:To investigate the prognostic usefulness of several existing scoring systems in predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis(AP).METHODS:We retrospectively analyzed the prospectively collected clinical database from consecutive patients with AP in our institution between January 2011 and December 2012.Ranson,Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation(APACHE)-Ⅱ,and bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis(BISAP)scores,and computed tomography severity index(CTSI)of all patients were calculated.Serum C-reactive protein(CRP)levels were measured at admission(CRPi)and after 24h(CRP24).Severe AP was defined as persistent organ failure for more than 48 h.The predictive accuracy of each scoring system was measured by the area under the receiver-operating curve(AUC).RESULTS:Of 161 patients,21(13%)were classified as severe AP,and 3(1.9%)died.Statistically significant cutoff values for prediction of severe AP were Ranson≥3,BISAP≥2,APACHE-Ⅱ≥8,CTSI≥3,and CRP24≥21.4.AUCs for Ranson,BISAP,APACHE-Ⅱ,CTSI,and CRP24 in predicting severe AP were 0.69(95%CI:0.62-0.76),0.74(95%CI:0.66-0.80),0.78(95%CI:0.70-0.84),0.69(95%CI:0.61-0.76),and0.68(95%CI:0.57-0.78),respectively.APACHE-Ⅱdemonstrated the highest accuracy for prediction of severe AP,however,no statistically significant pairwise differences were observed between APACHE-Ⅱand the other scoring systems,including CRP24.CONCLUSION:Various scoring systems showed similar predictive accuracy for severity of AP.Unique models are needed in order to achieve further improvement of prognostic accuracy.     

Staging of severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis by computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging—A comparative study

BACKGROUND: Determination of severity of acute pancreatitis is important to determine prognosis. AIMS: (1) the staging of acute pancreatitis by computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging, (2) the correlation of computed tomography and magnetic resonance severity indices and 3) the correlation of magnetic resonance severity index with C-reactive protein, Ranson score, duration of hospitalization and clinical outcome. PATIENTS: Thirty-five patients (median age: 64 (27-89)) were studied. Twenty-two patients had biliary acute pancreatitis. METHODS: The following examinations were conducted: (1) computed tomography 48 h, 7 and 30 days after admission, (2) magnetic resonance imaging 7 and 30 days after admission, (3) C-reactive protein and 4) Ranson score. Clinical outcome was determined on a scale 0-3 (0: remission, 1: local complications, 2: systemic complications, 3: death). RESULTS: Six of 35 patients (17%) had necrotizing acute pancreatitis. Fifteen of 35 patients (43%) had severe acute pancreatitis according to Ranson criteria. A significant correlation was noted between magnetic resonance severity index and C-reactive protein (r=0.419, p<0.005), Ranson score (r=0.431, p<0.05), duration of hospitalization (r=0.497, p<0.01) and clinical outcome (r=0.420, p<0.05). Comparison of the imaging methods showed a significant correlation between magnetic resonance severity index and computed tomography severity index (r=0.887, p<0.01). CONCLUSION: Magnetic resonance imaging is of comparable diagnostic and prognostic value with computed tomography in the staging of acute pancreatitis.     

BISAP评分系统对重症急性胰腺炎的评估价值

目的 探讨新型BISAP评分体系(bedside index for severity in AP)对重症急性胰腺炎(SAP)的评估价值。方法 选取临床拟诊为SAP的患者68例,分别进行BISAP、APACHEⅡ、Ranson以及CTSI评分。BISAP评分标准包括患者入院24h内的尿素氮水平、受损精神状态、全身炎症反应综合征、年龄、胸腔积液5项内容。以BISAP≥3分、APACHEⅡ≥8分、Ranson≥3分、CTSI≥3分为SAP的评估标准,分析这几种评分系统评估SAP的正确率。结果 68例患者中,BISAP≥3分者43例,占63.2％;APACHEⅡ≥8分者41例,占60.3％;Ranson≥3分者41例,占60.3％;CTSI≥3分者46例,占67.6％。BISAP评分系统与APACHEⅡ评分系统、Ranson评分系统以及CTSI评分系统比较,评估SAP的正确率均无显著性统计学差异。结论 BISAP评分系统作为一种新型的、简便的评分体系可推广应用于SAP的评估。     

Comparison of Existing Clinical Scoring Systems in Predicting Severity and Prognoses of Hyperlipidemic Acute Pancreatitis in Chinese Patients: A Retrospective Study

It is important to identify the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP) in the early course of the disease. Clinical scoring systems may be helpful to predict the prognosis of patients with early AP; however, few analysts have forecast the accuracy of scoring systems for the prognosis in hyperlipidemic acute pancreatitis (HLAP). The purpose of this study was to summarize the clinical characteristics of HLAP and compare the accuracy of conventional scoring systems in predicting the prognosis of HLAP.This study retrospectively analyzed all consecutively diagnosed AP patients between September 2008 and March 2014. We compared the clinical characteristics between HLAP and nonhyperlipidemic acute pancreatitis. The bedside index for severity of acute pancreatitis (BISAP), Ranson, computed tomography severity index (CTSI), and systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) scores were applied within 48 hours following admission.Of 909 AP patients, 129 (14.2%) had HLAP, 20 were classified as severe acute pancreatitis (SAP), 8 had pseudocysts, 9 had pancreatic necrosis, 30 had pleural effusions, 33 had SIRS, 14 had persistent organ failure, and there was 1 death. Among the HLAP patients, the area under curves for BISAP, Ranson, SIRS, and CTSI in predicting SAP were 0.905, 0.938, 0.812, and 0.834, 0.874, 0.726, 0.668, and 0.848 for local complications, and 0.904, 0.917, 0.758, and 0.849 for organ failure, respectively.HLAP patients were characterized by younger age at onset, higher recurrence rate, and being more prone to pancreatic necrosis, organ failure, and SAP. BISAP, Ranson, SIRS, and CTSI all have accuracy in predicting the prognosis of HLAP patients, but each has different strengths and weaknesses.     

The clinical value of procalcitonin in early assessment of acute pancreatitis

OBJECTIVES: Early assessment of the severity and the etiology is crucial in the management of acute pancreatitis. To determine the value of procalcitonin (PCT) as a prognostic marker and as an indicator of biliary etiology in the early phase of acute pancreatitis. METHODS: In a prospective study, 75 consecutive patients were included (severe pancreatitis in 12 patients, biliary etiology in 42 cases). The value of PCT as a prognostic marker was compared to C-reactive protein (CRP), hematocrit (HCT), acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) II score, and Ranson score. The value of PCT as an indicator of biliary etiology was compared to alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and alkaline phosphatase (AP). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was applied as a measure of the overall accuracy of the single markers and multiple scoring systems. RESULTS: The most accurate prediction of severe disease was provided by the APACHE II score on the day of admission (AUC: APACHE II, 0.78; CRP, 0.73; HCT, 0.73; and PCT, 0.61), and by CRP after 48 h (AUC: CRP, 0.94; Ranson score, 0.81; PCT, 0.71; APACHE II score, 0.69; and HCT, 0.46). ALT was the most accurate indicator of biliary pancreatitis (AUC: ALT, 0.83; AP, 0.81; and PCT, 0.68). CONCLUSIONS: PCT is of limited additional value for early assessment of severity and etiology in acute pancreatitis. CRP is found to be a reliable prognostic marker with a delay of 48 h, while ALT is validated as the best indicator of biliary etiology.     

Effects of 1-Year Interferon-Alpha 2a Treatment in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis C and Persistently Normal Transaminase Activity

Background: Computed tomography is valuable for the diagnosis of acute pancreatitis. Although CT-based prognostic scoring systems are available, they are complex and impractical for routine clinical use. We examined the validity of a simplified CT-based scoring system in a cohort of patients with acute pancreatitis. Method: Observational study based on correlation of CT findings with clinical outcomes. Seventy patients admitted to the Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh from January 1991 to December 1997 with a diagnosis of acute pancreatitis and undergoing CT with intravenous contrast during the first 3 to 10 days after admission were included in the study. Results: Multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that the finding of mesenteric oedema and free peritoneal fluid on CT were independent early predictive factors of adverse outcome. Allocating one point each for either mesenteric oedema (MO) or peritoneal fluid (P) (giving a maximum score of 2), a simple MOP score was derived. Compared with the Glasgow and APACHE multiple-factor scoring systems and the Helsinki and Balthazar CT-based scoring systems areas under ROC curves were: admission Apache II 0.57, admission Glasgow 0.62, Balthazar score 0.79, Helsinki score 0.85 and MOP score 0.87. Conclusions: The presence of mesenteric oedema or peritoneal fluid on CT appears to be a simple and widely applicable predictor of disease severity in acute pancreatitis.     

Mechanism of pancreatitis caused by ERCP.

BACKGROUND: Acute pancreatitis can develop after either ERCP or endoscopic sphincterotomy (ES). The pathogenesis of this complication remains poorly understood. METHODS: The frequency and severity of acute pancreatitis were retrospectively evaluated after 17,602 ERCP procedures and 3003 ES procedures. Pancreatitis was diagnosed and evaluated according to the scoring system of Ranson and criteria developed in Japan. RESULTS: Pancreatitis developed after 15 (0.09%) of 17,602 ERCP procedures and 13 (0.43%) of 3003 ES procedures (p = 0.0001, chi-square). The severity of pancreatitis (Ranson score) was less than 3 in 10 cases of ERCP-induced pancreatitis and from 3 to 5 in 5 cases. One (7%) of the 15 patients with ERCP-related pancreatitis died. All 13 patients with ES-induced pancreatitis had a Ranson score of less than 3; none died (p = 0.04, Fisher exact test). The ERCP pancreatitis score (Japanese criteria) beyond 48 hours after the onset of pancreatitis increased in 5 (33%) of the 15 patients with ERCP-induced pancreatitis; the score did not increase in any of the 13 patients with ES-induced pancreatitis (p = 0.04, Fisher exact test). CONCLUSIONS: Although the frequency of ES-induced pancreatitis is significantly higher than that of post-ERCP pancreatitis, the frequency of severe pancreatitis within 48 hours and worsening of pancreatitis after 48 hours is significantly lower with ES-induced pancreatitis. Our hypothesis is that the lowering of pancreatic intraductal pressure after ES mitigates the severity of postprocedure pancreatitis.     

Association of elevated serum triglyceride levels with a more severe course of acute pancreatitis: Cohort analysis of 1457 patients

BackgroundPrevious publications have reported an association between hypertriglyceridemia (HTG) and severity of acute pancreatitis, but this relationship remains somewhat controversial.ObjectiveTo evaluate the outcome of acute pancreatitis according to serum triglyceride levels on admission.MethodsRetrospective analysis of prospectively collected data, which included all consecutive cases of acute pancreatitis admitted to a tertiary hospital (January 2002–December 2014). Acute pancreatitis patients were classified into 3 groups based on serum triglyceride levels (mg/dl) measured within 48 h from admission: normal triglycerides-mild HTG (<200); moderate HTG (200–749); severe HTG (≥750). Primary outcomes were the difference in organ failure, pancreatic necrosis, acute peripancreatic collections and mortality among the three groups.ResultsA total of 1,457 cases were included: 1,335 with normal-mild HTG, 77 with moderate HTG and 45 with severe HTG. The rates of organ failure (11.2% in normal-mild HTG group, 15.6% in moderate HTG and 20.0% in severe HTG), persistent multiple organ failure (2.5% vs. 5.2% vs. 6.7%), pancreatic necrosis (9.2% vs. 14.3% vs. 26.7%) and acute collections (21.6% vs. 40.3% vs. 55.6%) increased significantly with hypertriglyceridemia severity grades. On multivariate analysis, triglycerides as a quantitative variable, evaluated in increments of 100 mg/dl, was independently associated with organ failure, pancreatic necrosis, acute collections and mortality (p < 0.05).ConclusionsElevated serum triglyceride levels are independently associated with a more severe course of pancreatitis. It must be highlighted the elevated frequency of local complications in patients with HTG that increases proportionally and significantly with HTG severity grades.     

Imaging and clinical prognostic indicators of acute pancreatitis: a comparative insight

Acute pancreatitis is a disease with a broad spectrum of clinical presentation. It varies in severity from mild edematous pancreatitis with mostly uneventful recovery to severe necrotizing forms associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Various severity scoring systems are used for assessing the prognosis of acute pancreatitis. These include the clinical scoring scales as Ranson criteria, Glasgow scales, simplified acute physiology (SAP) score and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) score. The CT severity index (CTSI) derived by Balthazar grading of pancreatitis and the extent of pancreatic necrosis is now widely used in describing CT findings of acute pancreatitis and serves as the radiological scoring system. The purpose of this review is to analyze the correlation of clinical and radiological scoring scales with patient outcome and assess their role as objective prognosticators of acute pancreatitis patients.     

Potential of adipocytokines in predicting peripancreatic necrosis and severity in acute pancreatitis: pilot study

Background and Aim: Severe acute pancreatitis is characterized by lipase‐induced peripancreatic fat cell necrosis. Because adipocytes secret several highly active molecules, the aim of the present study was to investigate the hypothesis that adipocytokines could serve as potential markers predicting peripancreatic necrosis and severity in acute pancreatitis. Methods: A total of 23 patients (11 females, 12 males) with acute pancreatitis were included and a computed tomography (CT) examination was available in 20 patients. Balthazar score, Schröder score, pancreatic necrosis score, Ranson score and APACHE II score were calculated, correlated with biochemical parameters and analyzed using receiver‐operator characteristics (ROC) analysis. Adipocytokine serum levels were measured daily by enzyme‐linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) over 10 days after admission. Results: Resistin and leptin were significantly elevated in patients with severe pancreatitis and were correlated with a radiological scoring system for extrapancreatic necrosis. Whereas resistin correlated positively with clinical scoring systems, time until discharge and the need for interventions, leptin was correlated positively with C‐reactive protein (CRP) levels. Resistin levels measured on the day of admittance had a positive predictive value of 93.3% (cut‐off: >6.95 ng/mL) in predicting a Schröder score >3. Conclusion: Resistin, and to a lesser extent leptin, but not adiponectin levels are novel potential markers for extrapancreatic necrosis and severity of acute pancreatitis and should therefore be tested in larger cohorts of patients.     

Evaluation of prognostic factors in patients with acute pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: The severity of acute pancreatitis is variable and does not always correlate with structural and functional changes in the pancreas. More precise predictors of severity are necessary to enable intensive therapy to be targeted at patients with severe attacks, and to judge efficacy of treatment, to help in the early detection of complications, and to facilitate comparison of patients from different centers. METHODOLOGY: On admission, clinical criteria, biochemical and hematological parameters and multiple prognostic scores (Ranson, Imrie and APACHE-II scores) were collected from patients with acute pancreatitis. RESULTS: Two hundred and twenty-seven patients were seen during the study period. The overall mortality rate was 11.4%. A significantly higher mortality was found in patients with severe pancreatitis (25.8%) than in those with mild disease (1.5%, p=0.00001). Mortality was related to the presence of fever at admission (16.5% vs. 5.0%, p=0.006), and not to age, sex, etiological associations, or concomitant medical or surgical diseases. Of the biochemical and hematological parameters tested, ten factors (plasma glucose, BUN, serum creatinine, serum calcium, serum lactate dehydrogenase, serum albumin, red cell count, white cell count, hematocrit, and lymphocytes count) were found to be statistically significant, and four factors (serum potassium, alkaline phosphatase, total bilirubin, and hemoglobin) were marginally significant. In high-risk patients (Ranson and Imrie scores > or = 3, APACHE-II score > or = 10) mortality rates were higher (22.5%, 23.0%, and 22.5%, respectively) than in low-risk patients (2.4%, 2.3%, and 0.8%, respectively, p=0.00001). APACHE-II scores may be especially useful for monitoring the progress of patients with pancreatic necrosis and secondary pancreatic necrosis. CONCLUSIONS: Acute pancreatitis still represents a condition of variable severity. The adoption of multiparametric criteria proposed together with morphological evaluation consents the formulation of a discreetly reliable prognosis on the evolution of the disease a few days from onset, even though this still appears insufficient to plan a varied and timely therapeutic program.     

Prospective study of the prognostic value of C reactive protein, alpha 1-antitrypsin and alpha 1-acid glycoprotein in acute pancreatitis

Early recognition of severity of acute pancreatitis is very uncertain. For this reason it is necessary to have objective criteria to predict with accuracy the course of the disease. The aim of this study was to examine the value of the determination of the acute phase reactants: C reactive protein (CRP), alpha 1-antitrypsin (alpha-AT) and alpha 1-glycoprotein acid (alpha-GA) as prognostic indicators of acute pancreatitis on admission and on the third day. We have studied 40 patients with acute pancreatitis and serum concentrations of CRP, alpha-AT and alpha-GP were related to the Ranson Index. On admission the median levels of CRP: 74 mg/L, alpha-AT: 208 mg% and alpha-GA: 303 mg% were significantly higher (p less than 0.001) in patients with Ranson Index greater than or equal to 3 than in those with Ranson Index less than or equal to 2 (CRP: 166 mg/L, alpha-AT: 303 mg% and alpha-GA: 121 mg%). The values which differentiated patients with better and worse prognosis were: CRP 100 mg/L (sensitivity 100% and specificity 86%); alpha--AT 275 mg% (sensitivity 71% and specificity 85%); and alpha-GA 90 mg% (sensitivity 87.5% and specificity 57.9%). CRP, and to a lesser degree the alpha-AT and alpha-GA, were related to the duration of the ileus, and to the severe complications of the acute pancreatitis.     

Evaluation of diagnostic findings and scoring systems in outcome prediction in acute pancreatitis

AIM: To determine factors related to disease severity, mortality and morbidity in acute pancreatitis. METHODS: One hundred and ninety-nine consecutive patients were admitted with the diagnosis of acute pancreatitis (AP) in a 5-year period (1998-2002). In a prospective design, demographic data, etiology, mean hospital admission time, clinical, radiological, biochemical findings, treatment modalities, mortality and morbidity were recorded. Endocrine insuffi ciency was investigated with oral glucose tolerance test. The relations between these parameters, scoring systems (Ranson, Imrie and APACHE Ⅱ) and patients' outcome were determined by using invariable tests and the receiver operating characteristics curve. RESULTS: One hundred patients were men and 99 were women; the mean age was 55 years. Biliary pancreatitis was the most common form, followed by idiopathic pancreatitis (53/ and 26/, respectively). Sixty-three patients had severe pancreatitis and 136 had mild disease. Respiratory rate > 20/min, pulse rate > 90/min, increased C-reactive protein (CRP), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) levels, organ necrosis > 30/ on computed tomography (CT) and leukocytosis were associated with severe disease. The rate of glucose intolerance, morbidity and mortality were 24.1/, 24.8/ and 13.6/, respectively. CRP > 142 mg/L, BUN > 22 mg/dL, LDH > 667 U/L, base excess > -5, CT severity index > 3 and APACHE score > 8 were related to morbidity and mortality. CONCLUSION: APACHE Ⅱ score, LDH, base excess and CT severity index have prognostic value and CRP is a reliable marker for predicting both mortality and morbidity.     

Comparison of scoring systems used in acute pancreatitis for predicting major adverse events

ObjectivesTimely identification of patients with acute pancreatitis who are likely to have a severe disease course is critical. Based on that, many scoring systems have been developed throughout the years. Although many of them are currently in use, none of them has been proven to be ideal. In this study, we aimed to compare the discriminatory power of relatively newer risk scores with the historical ones for predicting in-hospital major adverse events, 30-day mortality and 30-day readmission rate.Patients and methodsPatients who had been admitted due to acute pancreatitis were retrospectively investigated. Five risk scoring systems including HAPS, Ranson, BISAP, Glasgow, and JSS were calculated using the data of the first 24 h of admission. Predictive accuracy of each scoring system was calculated using the area under the receiver-operating curve method.ResultsOverall 690 patients were included in the study. In-hospital major adverse events were observed in 139 (20.1%) patients of whom, 19 (2.5%) died during hospitalization. 30-day all-cause mortality and 30-day readmission were observed in 22 (3.2%) and 27 (3.9%) patients respectively. Negative predictive value of each score was markedly higher compared to positive predictive values. Among all, JSS scoring system showed the highest AUC values across all end-points (0.80 for in-hospital major adverse events; 0.94 for in-hospital mortality; 0.91 for 30-day mortality). However, all five scoring systems failed to predict 30-day readmission.DiscussionJSS was the best classifier among all five risk scoring systems particularly owing to its high sensitivity and negative predictive value.     

A simplified method for computed tomographic estimation of prognosis in acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND: Computed tomography is valuable for the diagnosis of acute pancreatitis. Although CT-based prognostic scoring systems are available, they are complex and impractical for routine clinical use. We examined the validity of a simplified CT-based scoring system in a cohort of patients with acute pancreatitis. METHOD: Observational study based on correlation of CT findings with clinical outcomes. Seventy patients admitted to the Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh from January 1991 to December 1997 with a diagnosis of acute pancreatitis and undergoing CT with intravenous contrast during the first 3 to 10 days after admission were included in the study. RESULTS: Multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that the finding of mesenteric oedema and free peritoneal fluid on CT were independent early predictive factors of adverse outcome. Allocating one point each for either mesenteric oedema (MO) or peritoneal fluid (P) (giving a maximum score of 2), a simple MOP score was derived. Compared with the Glasgow and APACHE multiple-factor scoring systems and the Helsinki and Balthazar CT-based scoring systems areas under ROC curves were: admission Apache II 0.57, admission Glasgow 0.62. Balthazar score 0.79, Helsinki score 0.85 and MOP score 0.87. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of mesenteric oedema or peritoneal fluid on CT appears to be a simple and widely applicable predictor of disease severity in acute pancreatitis.