Are the conventional scoring systems efficient in predicting mortality of acute mesenteric ischemia?: Mortality estimation in patients with AMI

Acute mesenteric ischemia is a surgical emergency with high morbidity and mortality rates. Therefore, it is important to determine the prognosis for this disease. In the present study, we aimed to compare the prediction accuracy of 3 scoring systems: Acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II, sequential organ failure assessment score and simplified acute physiology score II (SAPS II). The retrospective cohort study was conducted in a university hospital. Eighty-two acute mesenteric ischemia patients were evaluated retrospectively. The mortality prediction abilities of the scoring systems were evaluated by comparing the prediction rates of > 10%, 30% and 50% and the actual mortality among survivors and non-survivors in pairs. Predicted mortality rates among survivors and non-survivors differed among the 3 classification systems. The mortality estimates of the SAPS II were closer to the actual mortality rates. Analysis of the estimated mortality rates as mortality risk limits showed that acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II was superior to sequential organ failure assessment score and SAPS II in estimating mortality rates, whereas SAPS II was more successful in detecting survivors. The estimated mortality rates of the 3 rating systems, the estimated mortality rates were higher in the non-survivor group than in the survivor group. The accuracy of the SAPS II in determining prognosis was relatively better.     

Systematic review and meta‐analysis of respiratory viral coinfections in children

Respiratory infections are a common cause of paediatric morbidity. Clinical outcomes in children hospitalized with single respiratory virus infection are compared with those with two or more viral–viral coinfection. Studies were restricted to those reporting on children aged less than 5 years (PROSPERO CRD#42014009133). Published data to calculate risk ratios (RR) comparing children with single viral infections to coinfection using a random effects model were used. Similar analyses by pathogen pairs and by excluding children with comorbidities were performed. Of 4443 articles reviewed, 19 were included. Overall, no differences in the risk of fever, admission to an intensive care unit (ICU), oxygen use, mechanical ventilation and abnormal radiographs between children with single infection and those with coinfection were found. When analysing only children without comorbidities, the risk of fever (RR = 1.16 to RR = 1.24, 95% confidence intervals (CI) = 1.00–1.55) and ICU admission (RR = 1.08 to RR = 1.31, 95% CI = 0.93–1.83) increased but remained non‐significant. Point estimates suggested an increased risk of ICU admission in those coinfected with either respiratory syncytial virus or human metapneumovirus compared with those with single infection but was non‐significant. Our findings suggest that coinfection is not associated with increased clinical severity, but further investigations by pathogen pairs are warranted.     

危重症量化评分系统在MICU中的应用

目的探讨电子化APACHEⅡ、SOFA评分和TISS及MPMⅡ预计死亡率在MICU危重症评价中的应用价值。方法216例住MICU患者根据预后分为存活组与死亡组,比较分析两组患者APACHEⅡ、SOFA评分和TISS及MPMⅡ预计死亡率分值、预测病死危险度之间的差异。以接受者操作特征曲线下面积（AUROCC）大小及HosmerLemeshow拟合优度检验衡量各种评分系统区别有可能病死或存活患者的能力。结果存活组APACHEⅡ、MPMⅡ预计死亡率、SOFA及TISS-28分值分别为：19．7±7．5、28．6±21．4％、5．4±3．7及18．2±7．6;死亡组分别为：32．4±8．9、71．2±26．7％、7．5±2．6及为32．3±12．1;各参数两组之间相比均存在明显差异（P〈0．000）。APACHEⅡ、MPMⅡ预计死亡率、SOFA及TISS-28的AUROCC分别为：0．875、0．879、0．769及0．846,均明显高于相应曲线下面积为50％的数值（P〈0．000）。Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验：APACHEⅡ、MPMⅡ死亡率及’nSS_28评分的H值分别为6．222、8．197及9．054;P值分别为0．51、0．41及0．338,均与患者实际病死率之间差异无显著性,而SOFA评分（H=8．820,P=0．032）与患者实际病死率之间差异有显著性。结论APACHEⅡ、MPMⅡ预计死亡率、SOFA及TISS48评分系统预测危重病患者预后的能力均较好且接近一致;APACHEⅡ、MPMⅡ死亡率、及TISS-28评分的整体校准度良好;而SOFA评分整体校准度不良。     

急诊老年危重病2798例临床特征分析

目的分析急诊老年危重病的临床特点。方法将2000-2006年在急诊室的2798例老年危重病例分3个年龄组,比较疾病谱构成比、病死率和器官功能衰竭。结果(1)老年危重患者占同期危重病例的比例呈下降趋势(χ2=539.43,P<0.01)。(2)60~69岁组占38.6%,70~79岁年龄组患者占39.4%,≥80岁组占22.1%。神经系统疾病1054例,居各系统疾病的第一位,占37.7%,其中脑血管病变858例(脑出血467例,脑梗死391例),占81.4%;循环系统疾病和各种外伤居第二、三位。(3)各年龄组前三位的疾病,60~69岁组为神经系统、各种外伤和循环系统疾病,70~79岁和≥80岁组均为神经系统、循环系统和呼吸系统疾病。(4)急诊老年危重病患者的总病死率为3.3%,病死率居前三位的是循环系统疾病(8.1%)、各种中毒(5.0%)和各种外伤(4.4%)。(5)发生器官功能衰竭患者359例,占总数的12.8%(359/2798);在70~79岁组169例,居第一位,占47.1%(169/359)。(6)一个器官功能衰竭患者316例,占总数的88.0%(316/359),呼吸衰竭和心力衰竭分别居前二位。(7)二个器官功能衰竭33例,病死率9.1%(3/33);三个及以上器官功能衰竭10例,病死率80.0%(8/10)。结论急诊老年危重病患者的重点疾病是神经系统(主要是脑血管疾病)和循环系统疾病,器官功能衰竭的重点病变是呼吸和心力衰竭。     

A novel lung disease phenotype adjusted for mortality attrition for cystic fibrosis genetic modifier studies

Genetic studies of lung disease in cystic fibrosis (CF) are hampered by the lack of a severity measure that accounts for chronic disease progression and mortality attrition. Further, combining analyses across studies requires common phenotypes that are robust to study design and patient ascertainment. Using data from the North American Cystic Fibrosis Modifier Consortium (Canadian Consortium for CF Genetic Studies, Johns Hopkins University CF Twin and Sibling Study, and University of North Carolina/Case Western Reserve University Gene Modifier Study), the authors calculated age-specific CF percentile values of FEV1 which were adjusted for CF age-specific mortality data. The phenotype was computed for 2,061 patients representing the Canadian CF population, 1,137 extreme phenotype patients in the UNC/Case Western study, and 1,323 patients from multiple CF sib families in the CF Twin and Sibling Study. Despite differences in ascertainment and median age, our phenotype score was distributed in all three samples in a manner consistent with ascertainment differences, reflecting the lung disease severity of each individual in the underlying population. The new phenotype score was highly correlated with the previously recommended complex phenotype, but the new phenotype is more robust for shorter follow-up and for extreme ages. A disease progression and mortality-adjusted phenotype reduces the need for stratification or additional covariates, increasing statistical power, and avoiding possible distortions. This approach will facilitate large-scale genetic and environmental epidemiological studies which will provide targeted therapeutic pathways for the clinical benefit of patients with CF.     

Impact of the Tokyo guidelines on the management of patients with acute calculous cholecystitis

Background and Aim: Prompt treatments for acute calculous cholecystitis can reduce both mortality and morbidity. The aim of this retrospective study was to assess the impact of the Tokyo guidelines on management of patients with acute cholecystitis. Methods: The records of patients admitted due to acute calculous cholecystitis were collected between January 2007 and June 2008. Exclusion criteria included acalculous, hepatobiliary malignancy, younger than 18 years old and mortality unrelated to cholecystitis. These 235 patients were classified into three groups; grade I, grade II and grade III, according to the severity grading in the Tokyo guidelines for acute cholecystitis. They were further classified into two subgroups; those compatible with and incompatible with managements suggested in the Tokyo guidelines, for comparison. Results: Lower levels of platelets, lower blood pressure, higher levels of C‐reactive protein, blood urine nitrogen, prothrombin time, bilirubin, alkaline phosphatase, and more incidences of positive microorganisms cultured in bile or blood, were found in patients as the severity of disease progressed. Shorter mean length of hospital stay was compatible with the Tokyo guidelines, but no significant differences in outcomes, including incidences of survival, post‐surgery complications and mortality, were found between the two subgroups. Conclusion: No significant benefit of the application of the Tokyo guidelines in the management of patients was found between the two subgroups except for reduced mean length of hospital stay. The application of the Tokyo guidelines for improving the outcomes of patients with acute cholecystitis needs further investigation and evaluation.     

Primary medical care and reductions in addiction severity: a prospective cohort study

AIMS: To assess whether receipt of primary medical care can lead to improved outcomes for adults with addictions. DESIGN: We studied a prospective cohort of adults enrolled in a randomized trial to improve linkage with primary medical care. METHODS: Subjects at a residential detoxification unit with alcohol, heroin or cocaine as a substance of choice, and no primary medical care were enrolled. Receipt of primary medical care was assessed over 2 years. Outcomes included (1) alcohol severity, (2) drug severity and (3) any substance use. FINDINGS: For the 391 subjects, receipt of primary care (> or = 2 visits) was associated with a lower odds of drug use or alcohol intoxication (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 0.45, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.29-0.69, 2 d.f. chi(2)P = 0.002). For 248 subjects with alcohol as a substance of choice, alcohol severity was lower in those who received primary care [predicted mean Addiction Severity Index (ASI) alcohol scores for those reporting > or = 2, 1 and 0 visits, respectively, 0.30, 0.26 and 0.34, P = 0.04]. For 300 subjects with heroin or cocaine as a substance of choice, drug severity was lower in those who received primary care (predicted mean ASI drug scores for those reporting > or = 2, 1 and 0 visits, respectively, 0.13, 0.15 and 0.16, P = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Receipt of primary medical care is associated with improved addiction severity. These results support efforts to link patients with addictions to primary medical care services.     

Intensive care unit experience of haemopoietic stem cell transplant patients

Background: Previous research at our institution (1988–1998) established an intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital mortality between 70% and 80% in haemopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT) patients requiring ICU admission. Aims: This study explored mortality in a more contemporary cohort while comparing outcomes to published literature and our previous experience. Methods: Retrospective chart review of HSCT patients admitted to ICU between December 1998 and June 2008. Results: Of 146 admissions, 53% were male, with a mean age of 44 years, an Acute Physiologic and Chronic Health Evaluation II score of 28 and Sepsis Organ Failure Assessment score of 11. Fifty‐six per cent had graft versus host disease (GVHD), with respiratory failure (67%) being the most common admission diagnosis. All but one received mechanical ventilation. The ICU and hospital mortality were 42% (72% 1988–1998 cohort) and 64% (82% 1998–1998 cohort) respectively. The 6‐ and 12‐month survivals were 29% and 24% respectively for the 1998–2008 cohort. Dying in ICU was independently predicted by fungal infection (P= 0.02) and early onset of organ failure (P < 0.001), while GVHD (P= 0.04) predicted survival. Mortality at 12 months was independently predicted by the acute physiology score (P= 0.002), increasing number of organ failures (P= 0.001), and cytomegalovirus positive serology (P= 0.005), while blood stream infection (P= 0.003), an antibiotic change on admission to the ICU (P= 0.007) and a diagnosis of non‐Hodgkin lymphoma (P= 0.02) predicted survival. Conclusion: Our study found that acute admission of HSCT patients to the ICU is associated with improved survival compared to our previous experience, with organ failure progression a strong predictor of ICU outcome, and specific disease characteristics contributing to long‐term survival.     

Performance of standard severity scoring systems for outcome prediction in patients admitted to a respiratory intensive care unit in North India

OBJECTIVE: There are little data on the value of using severity scoring systems developed in western countries to assess critically ill patients in India. The authors evaluated the performance of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation version II (APACHE II), Simplified Acute Physiology Score version II (SAPS II) and Mortality Probability Models version II at admission and at 24 h (MPM(0) and MPM(24), respectively) in predicting patient outcomes in their Respiratory Intensive Care Unit. METHODS: Data from 459 consecutive adult admissions were collected prospectively. Standardized mortality ratios were computed as an index of the overall model performance. Model calibration was assessed using Lemeshow-Hosmer goodness-of-fit tests and through calibration curves. Model discrimination was assessed through receiver operating curve analysis and by drawing 2 x 2 classification matrices. RESULTS: Overall standardized mortality ratio exceeded 1.5 for all models. All models had modest discrimination (area under receiver-operating-characteristic curves 0.66-0.78) and poor calibration (high Lemeshow-Hosmer C and H statistic values). All models had a tendency to underpredict hospital death in patients with lower mortality probability estimates. There were no major differences between the models with regard to either discrimination or calibration performance. CONCLUSIONS: Standard severity scoring systems developed in western countries are poor at predicting patient outcome in critically ill patients admitted to a respiratory intensive care unit in Northern India. Caution must be exercised in using such models in their present form on Indian patients until either they are customized for local use or fresh models are developed from Indian cohorts.     

Use of a laboratory only score system to define trajectories and outcomes of older people admitted to the acute hospital as medical emergencies

Aim: Increasing numbers of older people are admitted to hospital as medical emergencies. They are a heterogeneous population with uncertain trajectories and outcomes. Our aim was to retrospectively characterize subgroups of older inpatients based on their acuity trajectories. Methods: This was a single‐center patient series from St James's Hospital Dublin, Ireland (2002–2010). The Medical Admissions Risk System (MARS) score was used to classify a sample of 14 607 patients aged ≥65 years, from admission to end of episode, into four trajectory groups: (i) static high acuity (group 1); (ii) static low acuity (group 2); (iii) inpatient deterioration (group 3); and (iv) inpatient improvement (group 4). K‐means cluster analysis was used for the classification. Results: Group 1 (4.1%): median length of stay (LOS) 7.4 days, 23.6% used intensive care, mortality rate 79.2%; sepsis and renal failure were the dominant features. Group 2 (76.6%): median LOS 8.0 days, 5.2% used intensive care, mortality rate 9.5%; younger age, low comorbidity and diseases of non‐vital organs were predominant. Group 3 (7.6%): median LOS 17.2 days, 17.4% used intensive care, mortality rate 76.1%; high comorbidity and sepsis/respiratory disease featured. Group 4 (11.7%): median LOS 12.1 days, 12.8% used intensive care, mortality rate 22.7%; sepsis and renal/metabolic disease were frequent, and comorbidity levels were intermediate. Conclusions: In older acute medical inpatients, the outcome seemed more driven by specific diagnoses (such as sepsis and renal failure) and comorbidity, than by age. Using the MARS score to retrospectively categorize older inpatients might help to understand their heterogeneity and promote the design of appropriate care pathways. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2013; 13: 405–412 .     

Effect of early application of biphasic positive airway pressure on the outcome of extubation in ventilator weaning

Extubation failure is significantly associated with increased morbidity and mortality in mechanically ventilated patients. In respiratory distress after extubation, non-invasive positive pressure ventilation (NIPPV) has been suggested to avoid the complications of invasive mechanical ventilation. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of early application of NIPPV on extubation outcome. We conducted a prospective study in 93 extubated patients with a mean age of 72.7 +/- 14.7 years (range, 24-93). Elective extubation was performed in 56 patients and unplanned extubation occurred in 37 patients. After extubation, patients randomly received either biphasic positive airway pressure (BIPAP) therapy (n = 47) or unassisted oxygen therapy (n = 46). Non-invasive positive pressure ventilation was delivered via face mask in BIPAP group. Of the 93 extubated patients, 73 (78.5%) were successfully extubated, and 20 (21.5%) had to be re-intubated. There were no significant differences in age, sex, pre-extubation blood gas data between re-intubated patients and those who were not re-intubated. While seven of the 46 patients in the unassisted oxygen therapy group required re-intubation, 13 of the 47 BIPAP-treated patients also required re-intubation. This difference was not statistically significant. The postextubation respiratory management, BIPAP or unassisted oxygen therapy, did not correlate with the extubation outcome, but the elective extubation had significantly better outcome than unplanned extubation. Patients with excessive bronchial secretions and intolerance to the equipment are poor candidates for NIPPV. We conclude that early application of BIPAP support did not predict a favourable extubation outcome. Our experience did not support the indiscriminate use of NIPPV to facilitate ventilator weaning.     

阿加曲班治疗急性缺血性脑卒中的临床研究

目的观察阿加曲班治疗急性缺血性脑卒中的临床疗效及安全性。方法采用多中心、随机、开放性临床研究。随机选择发病48 h内的急性缺血性脑卒中患者132例,静脉输入阿加曲班,治疗7 d后观察美国国立卫生研究院卒中量表评分和改良Rankin量表及实验室检查和不良事件发生率。结果与治疗前比较,治疗后患者美国国立卫生研究院卒中量表评分明显降低、改良Rankin量表评分≤2分所占比例明显增高,差异有统计学意义(P0.05)。试验过程中未发生出血性脑卒中和脑出血等严重不良事件。结论阿加曲班可以改善急性缺血性脑卒中患者的预后及生活质量,具有较高的安全性。