Modelling the impact and cost-effectiveness of non-governmental organizations on HIV and HCV transmission among people who inject drugs in Ukraine

Introduction

People who inject drugs (PWID) in Ukraine have high prevalences of HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV). Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) provide PWID with needles/syringes, condoms, HIV/HCV testing and linkage to opioid agonist treatment (OAT) and antiretroviral therapy (ART). We estimated their impact and cost-effectiveness among PWID.

Methods

A dynamic HIV and HCV transmission model among PWID was calibrated using data from four national PWID surveys (2011–2017). The model assumed 37–49% coverage of NGOs among community PWID, with NGO contact reducing injecting risk and increasing condom use and recruitment onto OAT and ART. We estimated the historic (1997–2021) and future (2022–2030, compared to no NGO activities from 2022) impact of NGOs in terms of the proportion of HIV/HCV infections averted and changes in HIV/HCV incidence. We estimated the future impact of scaling-up NGOs to 80% coverage with/without scale-up in OAT (5–20%) and ART (64–81%). We estimated the cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted of current NGO provision over 2022–2041 compared to NGO activities stopping over 2022–2026, but restarting after that till 2041. We assumed average unit costs of US$80–90 per person-year of NGO contact for PWID.

Results

With existing coverage levels of NGOs, the model projects that NGOs have averted 20.0% (95% credibility interval: 13.3–26.1) and 9.6% (5.1–14.1) of new HIV and HCV infections among PWID over 1997–2021, respectively, and will avert 31.8% (19.6–39.9) and 13.7% (7.5–18.1) of HIV and HCV infections over 2022–2030. With NGO scale-up, HIV and HCV incidence will decrease by 54.2% (43.3–63.8) and 30.2% (20.5–36.2) over 2022–2030, or 86.7% (82.9–89.3) and 39.8% (31.4–44.8) if OAT and ART are also scaled-up. Without NGOs, HIV and HCV incidence will increase by 51.6% (23.6–76.3) and 13.4% (4.8–21.9) over 2022–2030. Current NGO provision over 2022–2026 will avert 102,736 (77,611–137,512) DALYs when tracked until 2041 (discounted 3% annually), and cost US$912 (702–1222) per DALY averted; cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of US$1548/DALY averted (0.5xGDP).

Conclusions

NGO activities have a crucial preventative impact among PWID in Ukraine which should be scaled-up to help achieve HIV and HCV elimination. Disruptions could have a substantial detrimental impact.     

The long-term impact and value of curative therapy for HIV: a modelling analysis

Introduction

Curative therapies (CTx) to achieve durable remission of HIV disease without the need for antiretroviral therapy (ART) are currently being explored. Our objective was to model the long-term health and cost outcomes of HIV in various countries, the impact of future CTx on those outcomes and the country-specific value-based prices (VBPs) of CTx.

Methods

We developed a decision-analytic model to estimate the future health economic impacts of a hypothetical CTx for HIV in countries with pre-existing access to ART (CTx+ART), compared to ART alone. We modelled populations in seven low-and-middle-income countries and five high-income countries, accounting for localized ART and other HIV-related costs, and calibrating variables for HIV epidemiology and ART uptake to reproduce historical HIV outcomes before projecting future outcomes to year 2100. Health was quantified using disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Base case, pessimistic and optimistic scenarios were modelled for CTx+ART and ART alone. Based on long-term outcomes and each country's estimated health opportunity cost, we calculated the country-specific VBP of CTx.

Results

The introduction of a hypothetical CTx lowered HIV prevalence and prevented future infections over time, which increased life-years, reduced the number of individuals on ART, reduced AIDS-related deaths, and ultimately led to fewer DALYs versus ART-alone. Our base case estimates for the VBP of CTx ranged from $5400 (Kenya) up to $812,300 (United States). Within each country, the VBP was driven to be greater primarily by lower ART coverage, lower HIV incidence and prevalence, and higher CTx cure probability. The VBP estimates were found to be greater in countries where HIV prevalence was higher, ART coverage was lower and the health opportunity cost was greater.

Conclusions

Our results quantify the VBP for future curative CTx that may apply in different countries and under different circumstances. With greater CTx cure probability, durability and scale up, CTx commands a higher VBP, while improvements in ART coverage may mitigate its value. Our framework can be utilized for estimating this cost given a wide range of scenarios related to the attributes of a given CTx as well as various parameters of the HIV epidemic within a given country.     

广西艾滋病高发区一般人群对包皮环切术认知宣教初步研究

目的:在广西艾滋病高发区一般人群中评价包皮环切术推广的效果,为推广包皮环切术提供参考依据。方法:在广西贺州、钦州市招募590例固定社区居民,填写知情同意书,进行基线调查后运用各种宣传材料和方式进行现场干预,问卷采用一对一现场问卷调查。如果研究对象愿意接受手术且无手术禁忌证,则安排其到课题组指定的医院进行手术。在干预后第6个月、9个月进行随访,了解相关包皮环切预防艾滋病知、信、行变化情况。结果:一般人群第1、2次随访相对于干预前,手术原因、手术益处、手术并发症知晓率、手术接受意愿以及手术率均有提高,差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05),两次随访之间比较差异均无统计学意义(P>0.05)。知道包茎或包皮过长是手术原因从干预前66.1%分别提高至第1、2次随访的81.9%、79.8%;知道手术可预防艾滋病及性传播疾病从干预前28.0%分别提高至第1、2次随访的77.4%、78.6%;知道疼痛、出血、感染是手术并发症从干预前29.5%、19.3%、39.3%分别提高至第1次随访72.5%、58.2%、59.4%以及第2次随访75.0%、57.0%、63.0%;手术接受意愿从干预前35.3%分别提高至第1、2次随访的59.6%、61.3%;手术率在第1、2次随访时分别提高到12.7%、16.1%。结论:包皮环切术的推广对广西艾滋病高发区一般人群包皮环切预防艾滋病的知、信、行的干预效果显著,适宜在一般人群中应用。推广材料和方式的改进可考虑着重宣传艾滋病、包茎或包皮过长的危害和手术安全性相关知识。     

男性包皮环切对降低生殖道感染和预防生殖道肿瘤的意义

越来越多的的研究结果证明,男性包皮环切显著降低包皮龟头炎和尿路感染及其他生殖道感染、降低HIV和HPV以及HSV-2与其他性传播疾病感染风险,对生殖道肿瘤,如子宫颈癌、阴茎癌和前列腺癌具有预防作用。目前在中国包皮环切率低于5%。商环包皮环切术在非洲的临床评估试验和大样本随机对照试验结果证实,商环具有安全性好、可接受性和满意度高。世界卫生组织(WHO)和联合国艾滋病规划署(UNAIDS)已将男性包皮环切推荐为艾滋病预防策略的重要干预措施之一,中国应该大力提倡安全的包皮环切术,从而降低男性及其女性伴侣生殖道感染、预防生殖道肿瘤,对改善全民生殖健康具有长期影响和深远意义。研究男性包皮环切对公共卫生的深远影响将成为今后泌尿男科工作的重点之一。     

Impact and cost-effectiveness of the national scale-up of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis among female sex workers in South Africa: a modelling analysis

Introduction

In 2016, South Africa (SA) initiated a national programme to scale-up pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among female sex workers (FSWs), with ∼20,000 PrEP initiations among FSWs (∼14% of FSW) by 2020. We evaluated the impact and cost-effectiveness of this programme, including future scale-up scenarios and the potential detrimental impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods

A compartmental HIV transmission model for SA was adapted to include PrEP. Using estimates on self-reported PrEP adherence from a national study of FSW (67.7%) and the Treatment and Prevention for FSWs (TAPS) PrEP demonstration study in SA (80.8%), we down-adjusted TAPS estimates for the proportion of FSWs with detectable drug levels (adjusted range: 38.0–70.4%). The model stratified FSW by low (undetectable drug; 0% efficacy) and high adherence (detectable drug; 79.9%; 95% CI: 67.2–87.6% efficacy). FSWs can transition between adherence levels, with lower loss-to-follow-up among highly adherent FSWs (aHR: 0.58; 95% CI: 0.40–0.85; TAPS data). The model was calibrated to monthly data on the national scale-up of PrEP among FSWs over 2016–2020, including reductions in PrEP initiations during 2020. The model projected the impact of the current programme (2016–2020) and the future impact (2021–2040) at current coverage or if initiation and/or retention are doubled. Using published cost data, we assessed the cost-effectiveness (healthcare provider perspective; 3% discount rate; time horizon 2016–2040) of the current PrEP provision.

Results

Calibrated to national data, model projections suggest that 2.1% of HIV-negative FSWs were currently on PrEP in 2020, with PrEP preventing 0.45% (95% credibility interval, 0.35–0.57%) of HIV infections among FSWs over 2016–2020 or 605 (444–840) infections overall. Reductions in PrEP initiations in 2020 possibly reduced infections averted by 18.57% (13.99–23.29). PrEP is cost-saving, with $1.42 (1.03–1.99) of ART costs saved per dollar spent on PrEP. Going forward, existing coverage of PrEP will avert 5,635 (3,572–9,036) infections by 2040. However, if PrEP initiation and retention doubles, then PrEP coverage increases to 9.9% (8.7–11.6%) and impact increases 4.3 times with 24,114 (15,308–38,107) infections averted by 2040.

Conclusions

Our findings advocate for the expansion of PrEP to FSWs throughout SA to maximize its impact. This should include strategies to optimize retention and should target women in contact with FSW services.     

Concurrent partnerships and HIV: an inconvenient truth

The strength of the evidence linking concurrency to HIV epidemic severity in southern and eastern Africa led the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS and the Southern African Development Community in 2006 to conclude that high rates of concurrent sexual partnerships, combined with low rates of male circumcision and infrequent condom use, are major drivers of the AIDS epidemic in southern Africa. In a recent article in the Journal of the International AIDS Society, Larry Sawers and Eileen Stillwaggon attempt to challenge the evidence for the importance of concurrency and call for an end to research on the topic. However, their “systematic review of the evidence” is not an accurate summary of the research on concurrent partnerships and HIV, and it contains factual errors concerning the measurement and mathematical modelling of concurrency. Practical prevention‐oriented research on concurrency is only just beginning. Most interventions to raise awareness about the risks of concurrency are less than two years old; few evaluations and no randomized‐controlled trials of these programmes have been conducted. Determining whether these interventions can help people better assess their own risks and take steps to reduce them remains an important task for research. This kind of research is indeed the only way to obtain conclusive evidence on the role of concurrency, the programmes needed for effective prevention, the willingness of people to change behaviour, and the obstacles to change.     

Men''s Health in Africa: Part 1: Reproductive urogenital diseases and human immunodeficiency virus infection

While acknowledging that the concept of ‘men's health’ is not clearly defined, and that the geographic designation ‘Africa’ involves immense demographic heterogeneity, the aim of this paper is to present a review of reproductive and urogenital aspects of men's health, including the effect of sexually transmitted infections in Africa.

Infertility is particularly distressing in African societies, and is usually attributed to the woman, although male-factor infertility is increasingly being recognized. Polygamy is still relatively common in some countries as a male strategy to extend reproductive ability. Men's knowledge of, and attitudes to, family planning in some parts of Africa is still poor.

The prevalence, etiology and treatment of erectile dysfunction in Africa is similar to that in other countries, but traditional (herbal) remedies are also widely used. Hereditary hemoglobinopathy is relatively common in West Africa, and priapism occurs in approximately one third of men with sickle cell disease.

Parasitic infestations such as schistosomiasis and filariasis are still common in tropical Africa, and are a cause of significant male urogenital morbidity and even mortality. Sexually transmitted infections are relatively common in many African countries, and are a prominent cause of infertility, urethral stricture disease and Fournier's gangrene.

In many sub-Saharan countries the average life expectancy of the population has decreased considerably due to the epidemic of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). Ritual circumcision is a cause of morbidity and even mortality in some areas. Recently, randomized, controlled clinical trials conducted in three African countries have provided evidence that the risk of acquiring HIV infection is approximately halved by adult male circumcision.

Overall, there is a clear need for health education and increased attention to the reproductive health concerns of males. Sustained efforts to improve the general level of education and to increase child survival are key factors in addressing male reproductive health issues. Moreover, proper management of age-related conditions in both males and females could have an impact on societies in Africa like nowhere else in the world, because the surviving elderly population will be the ones taking care of the HIV/AIDS orphans.     

中国商环(Shang Ring)男性包皮环切技术临床应用研究进展

男性包皮环切能显著降低男性阴茎-阴道性交获得性HIV感染风险大约60%,被WHO和联合国艾滋病规划署(UNAIDS)推荐作为HIV预防策略中的一个重要干预措施。寻求一种更加安全、有效和可接受的男性包皮环切器械和手术方法,以便能够满足加快执行扩大包皮环切预防HIV感染项目的需求,已经成为相关国际组织,特别是非洲国家政府公共卫生事业的当务之急。2008年中国商环(Shang Ring)包皮环切标准化手术方案的建立,以及应用这个标准化手术方案和手术培训在中国以及2009年和2010年在肯尼亚实施中国商环成人包皮环切手术获得有用的和有意义的临床数据,证明了中国商环包皮环切术的诸多优势。手术培训手册和教学视频的多次修订为培训医护人员提供了更加准确的教学指南。经过多家相关国际机构专家的考察和评估,中国商环包皮环切技术已经成为支持在非洲HIV高发地区扩大包皮环切服务预防HIV感染项目最具潜力的候选包皮环切器械之一。可以预计,中国商环包皮环切技术的成功应用将会在改变数百万非洲人的生活方式的同时,也为中国男科学与泌尿外科学医生在包皮环切与HIV预防和生殖健康相关的临床研究领域提供了丰富的机会。本文报告了2008年2月至2010年底期间中国商环包皮环切技术临床应用的国际和国内研究进展。     

Silencing women’s sexuality: global AIDS policies and the case of the female condom

Introduction

The female condom is the only evidence-based AIDS prevention technology that has been designed for the female body; yet, most women do not have access to it. This is remarkable since women constitute the majority of all HIV-positive people living in sub-Saharan Africa, and gender inequality is seen as a driving force of the AIDS epidemic. In this study, we analyze how major actors in the AIDS prevention field frame the AIDS problem, in particular the female condom in comparison to other prevention technologies, in their discourse and policy formulations. Our aim is to gain insight into the discursive power mechanisms that underlie the thinking about AIDS prevention and women’s sexual agency.

Methods

We analyze the AIDS policies of 16 agencies that constitute the most influential actors in the global response to AIDS. Our study unravels the discursive power of these global AIDS policy actors, when promoting and making choices between AIDS prevention technologies. We conducted both a quantitative and qualitative analysis of how the global AIDS epidemic is being addressed by them, in framing the AIDS problem, labelling of different categories of people for targeting AIDS prevention programmes and in gender marking of AIDS prevention technologies.

Results

We found that global AIDS policy actors frame the AIDS problem predominantly in the context of gender and reproductive health, rather than that of sexuality and sexual rights. Men’s sexual agency is treated differently from women’s sexual agency. An example of such differentiation and of gender marking is shown by contrasting the framing and labelling of male circumcision as an intervention aimed at the prevention of HIV with that of the female condom.

Conclusions

The gender-stereotyped global AIDS policy discourse negates women’s agency in sexuality and their sexual rights. This could be an important factor in limiting the scale-up of female condom programmes and hampering universal access to female condoms.     

Cost-effectiveness of Surgery in Low- and Middle-income Countries: A Systematic Review

Background

There is increasing interest in provision of essential surgical care as part of public health policy in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). Relatively simple interventions have been shown to prevent death and disability. We reviewed the published literature to examine the cost-effectiveness of simple surgical interventions which could be made available at any district hospital, and compared these to standard public health interventions.

Methods

PubMed and EMBASE were searched using single and combinations of the search terms “disability adjusted life year” (DALY), “quality adjusted life year,” “cost-effectiveness,” and “surgery.” Articles were included if they detailed the cost-effectiveness of a surgical intervention of relevance to a LMIC, which could be made available at any district hospital. Suitable articles with both cost and effectiveness data were identified and, where possible, data were extrapolated to enable comparison across studies.

Results

Twenty-seven articles met our inclusion criteria, representing 64 LMIC over 16 years of study. Interventions that were found to be cost-effective included cataract surgery (cost/DALY averted range US$5.06–$106.00), elective inguinal hernia repair (cost/DALY averted range US$12.88–$78.18), male circumcision (cost/DALY averted range US$7.38–$319.29), emergency cesarean section (cost/DALY averted range US$18–$3,462.00), and cleft lip and palate repair (cost/DALY averted range US$15.44–$96.04). A small district hospital with basic surgical services was also found to be highly cost-effective (cost/DALY averted 1 US$0.93), as were larger hospitals offering emergency and trauma surgery (cost/DALY averted US$32.78–$223.00). This compares favorably with other standard public health interventions, such as oral rehydration therapy (US$1,062.00), vitamin A supplementation (US$6.00–$12.00), breast feeding promotion (US$930.00), and highly active anti-retroviral therapy for HIV (US$922.00).

Conclusions

Simple surgical interventions that are life-saving and disability-preventing should be considered as part of public health policy in LMIC. We recommend an investment in surgical care and its integration with other public health measures at the district hospital level, rather than investment in single disease strategies.     

Evaluation of an HIV/AIDS peer education programme in a South African workplace.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate a South African workplace HIV/AIDS peer-education programme running since 1997. METHODS: In 2001 a cross-sectional study was done of 900 retail-section employees in three geographical areas. The study measured HIV/AIDS knowledge, attitudes towards people living with HIV/AIDS, belief about self-risk of infection, and condom use as a practice indicator. The impact of an HIV/AIDS peer-education programme on these outcomes was examined. RESULTS: Training by peer educators had no significant impact on any outcome. Fifty-nine per cent of subjects had a good knowledge score, 62% had a positive attitude towards people with HIV/AIDS, 34% used condoms frequently, and the majority of participants (73%) believed they were at low risk of infection. Logistical regression showed that a very small proportion of the variance in the four outcomes was explained by potential determinants of interest (8% for knowledge, 6% for attitude, 7% for risk and 17% for condom use). CONCLUSIONS: The HIV peer-education programme was found to be ineffective and may have involved an opportunity cost. The programme contrasts with more costly comprehensive care that includes antiretrovirals. The private sector appears to have been as tardy as the public sector in addressing the epidemic effectively.     

Complexity,cofactors, and the failure of AIDS policy in Africa

Global AIDS policy still treats HIV as an exceptional case, abstracting from the context in which infection occurs. Policy is based on a simplistic theory of HIV causation, and evaluated using outdated tools of health economics. Recent calls for a health systems strategy – preventing and treating HIV within a programme of comprehensive health care – have not yet influenced the silo approach of AIDS policy. Evidence continues to accumulate, showing that multiple factors, such as malnutrition, malaria and helminthes, increase the risk of sexual and vertical transmission of HIV. Moreover, complementary interventions that reduce viral load, improve immune response, and interrupt pathways of transmission could increase the effectiveness of antiretroviral drugs and other tools of AIDS policy. In health economics, the omission of estimates of increasing returns generated by disease or treatment synergies biases cost‐effectiveness analysis against multiple, yet inexpensive, interventions. Current tools of cost‐effectiveness analysis only identify local maxima in a complex landscape, and can play, at best, a marginal role in the epidemic, especially where it is already generalized. Cost‐effectiveness analyses for HIV that are based on the wrong epidemiological model can generate Type III errors: we get precise answers to the wrong questions about how to intervene. To control the epidemic, AIDS policy needs to utilize an epidemiological model that reflects the interactions of biological as well as behavioural variables that determine the course of HIV epidemics around the world. Cost‐effectiveness analysis can benefit from using economic concepts of externalities and increasing returns to incorporate disease interactions and beneficial treatment spillovers for coinfections in HIV‐prevention policy.     

Cost‐Effectiveness of Mass Dog Vaccination Campaigns against Rabies in Flores Island,Indonesia

A dynamic deterministic simulation model was developed to determine the cost‐effectiveness of different mass dog vaccination strategies against rabies in a dog population representative of a typical village on Flores Island. Cost‐effectiveness was measured as public cost per averted dog‐rabies case. Simulations started with the introduction of one infectious dog into a susceptible dog population of 399 dogs and subsequently ran for a period of 10 years. The base scenario represented a situation without any control intervention. Evaluated vaccination strategies were as follows: annual vaccination campaigns with short‐acting vaccine (immunity duration of 52 weeks) (AV_52), annual campaigns with long‐acting vaccine (immunity duration of 156 weeks) (AV_156), biannual campaigns with short‐acting vaccine (BV_52) and once‐in‐2‐years campaigns with long‐acting vaccine (O2V_156). The effectiveness of the vaccination strategies was simulated for vaccination coverages of 50% and 70%. Cumulative results were reported for the 10‐year simulation period. The base scenario resulted in three epidemic waves, with a total of 1274 dog‐rabies cases. The public cost of applying AV_52 at a coverage of 50% was US$5342 for a village. This strategy was unfavourable compared to other strategies, as it was costly and ineffective in controlling the epidemic. The costs of AV_52 at a coverage of 70% and AV_156 at a coverage of 70% were, respectively, US$3646 and US$3716, equivalent to US$3.00 and US$3.17 per averted dog‐rabies case. Increasing the coverage of AV_156 from 50% to 70% reduced the number of cases by 7% and reduced the cost by US$1452, resulting in a cost‐effectiveness ratio of US$1.81 per averted dog‐rabies case. This simulation model provides an effective tool to explore the public cost‐effectiveness of mass dog vaccination strategies in Flores Island. Insights obtained from the simulation results are useful for animal health authorities to support decision‐making in rabies‐endemic areas, such as Flores Island.     

Male circumcision for HIV prevention: current evidence and implementation in sub‐Saharan Africa

Heterosexual exposure accounts for most HIV transmission in sub‐Saharan Africa, and this mode, as a proportion of new infections, is escalating globally. The scientific evidence accumulated over more than 20 years shows that among the strategies advocated during this period for HIV prevention, male circumcision is one of, if not, the most efficacious epidemiologically, as well as cost‐wise. Despite this, and recommendation of the procedure by global policy makers, national implementation has been slow. Additionally, some are not convinced of the protective effect of male circumcision and there are also reports, unsupported by evidence, that non‐sex‐related drivers play a major role in HIV transmission in sub‐Saharan Africa. Here, we provide a critical evaluation of the state of the current evidence for male circumcision in reducing HIV infection in light of established transmission drivers, provide an update on programmes now in place in this region, and explain why policies based on established scientific evidence should be prioritized. We conclude that the evidence supports the need to accelerate the implementation of medical male circumcision programmes for HIV prevention in generalized heterosexual epidemics, as well as in countering the growing heterosexual transmission in countries where HIV prevalence is presently low.     

Male circumcision and HIV/AIDS risk — Analysis of the scientific evidence

Objective  

The aim of this review was to evaluate the scientific evidence supporting the hypothesis that male circumcision reduces the risk of HIV infection and consequently the incidence of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS).     

An effective Australian-Chinese peer education program on HIV/AIDS/STDs for university students in China

<正> IntroductionCurrently,there are at least 850,000 peo-ple living with human immuno-deficiency virus(HIV) and acquired immuno-deficiency syn-drome (AIDS) in China.Among them 16-29years old account for about 65%.Accordingto the Chinese health authorities,if the pre-ventive measures are not effective,the figurecould reach as many as 10 million by the year2010.Since there are currently no cure or     

Punitive laws,key population size estimates,and Global AIDS Response Progress Reports: an ecological study of 154 countries

Introduction : UN global plans on HIV/AIDS have committed to reducing the number of countries with punitive laws criminalizing key populations. This study explores whether punitive laws are associated with countries’ performance on targets set in the global plans. Methods : The study used chi‐square tests of independence to explore associations between legal status, key population size estimates, and HIV service coverage for 193 countries from 2007 to 2014. We used data reported by countries on United Nations Global AIDS Progress Report (GARPR) indicators, and legal data from UNAIDS, UNDP, and civil society organizations. Due to lack of sufficiently reliable legal data, only men who have sex with men (MSM) could be studied. The study utilized public data aggregated at the national level. Correspondence with individual experts in a subset of countries stated the purpose of the study, and all responses were anonymized. Results and Discussion : A significantly larger proportion of countries that criminalize same‐sex sexual behaviour reported implausibly low size estimates or no size estimates for MSM. This is consistent with findings in qualitative research that MSMs are marginalized and reluctant to be studied in countries where same‐sex sexuality is criminalized. Size estimates are often used as the denominators for national HIV service coverage reports. Initially, countries that criminalized same‐sex sexuality appeared to have higher HIV testing coverage among MSM than did countries where it is not criminalized. However, investigation of a subset of countries that have reported 90–100% HIV testing coverage among MSM found that most were based on implausibly low or absent size estimates. Conclusions : Criminalization of same‐sex sexuality is associated with implausibly low or absent MSM size estimates. Low size estimates may contribute to official denial of the existence of MSM; to failure to adequately address their needs; and to inflated HIV service coverage reports that paint a false picture of success. To enable and measure progress in the HIV response, UN agencies should lead a collaborative process to systematically, independently and rigorously gather data on laws and their enforcement.     

Bladder sensory desensitization decreases urinary urgency

Background

There is growing evidence that male circumcision (MC) prevents heterosexual acquisition of HIV by males in sub-Saharan Africa, the region of the world heavily affected by the HIV pandemic. While there is growing support for wide-spread availability and accessibility of MC in Africa, there is limited discussion about the prevalence of physical complications of male circumcision on the continent.

Methods

A systematic literature search and review of articles in indexed journals and conference abstracts was conducted to collect and analyze prevalence of complications of MC in Anglophone sub-Saharan Africa. Information extracted included: indications for MC, complications reported, age of patients and category of circumcisers.

Results

There were 8 articles and 2 abstracts that were suitable for the analysis. The studies were not strictly comparable as some reported on a wide range of complications while others reported just a limited list of possible complications. Prevalence of reported complications of MC ranged from 0% to 50.1%. Excluding the study with 50.1%, which was on a series of haemophilia patients, the next highest prevalence of complications was 24.1%. Most of the complications were minor. There was no firm evidence to suggest that MCs performed by physician surgeons were associated with lower prevalence of complications when compared with non-physician health professionals.

Conclusion

The available data are inadequate to obtain a reasonable assessment of the prevalence of complications of MC in sub-Saharan Africa. Some of the available studies however report potentially significant prevalence of complications, though of minor clinical significance. This should be considered as public health policy makers consider whether to scale-up MC as an HIV preventative measure. Decision for the scale-up will depend on a careful cost-benefit assessment of which physical complications are certainly an important aspect. There is need for standardized reporting of complications of male circumcision.     

The City of Johannesburg can end AIDS by 2030: modelling the impact of achieving the Fast‐Track targets and what it will take to get there

Introduction

In 2014, city leaders from around the world endorsed the Paris Declaration on Fast‐Track Cities, pledging to achieve the 2020 and 2030 HIV targets championed by UNAIDS. The City of Johannesburg – one of South Africa's metropolitan municipalities and also a health district – has over 600,000 people living with HIV (PLHIV), more than any other city worldwide. We estimate what it would take in terms of programmatic targets and costs for the City of Johannesburg to meet the Fast‐Track targets, and demonstrate the impact that this would have.

Methods

We applied the Optima HIV epidemic and resource allocation model to demographic, epidemiological and behavioural data on 26 sub‐populations in Johannesburg. We used data on programme costs and coverage to produce baseline projections. We calculated how many people must be diagnosed, put onto treatment and maintained with viral suppression to achieve the 2020 and 2030 targets. We also estimated how treatment needs – and therefore fiscal commitments – could be reduced if the treatment targets are combined with primary HIV prevention interventions (voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC), an expanded condom programme, and comprehensive packages for female sex workers (FSW) and young females).

Results

If current programmatic coverage were maintained, Johannesburg could expect 303,000 new infections and 96,000 AIDS‐related deaths between 2017 and 2030 and 769,000 PLHIV by 2030. Achieving the Fast‐Track targets would require an additional 135,000 diagnoses and 232,000 people on treatment by 2020 (an increase in around 80% over 2016 treatment numbers), but would avert 176,000 infections and 56,500 deaths by 2030. Assuming stable ART unit costs, this would require ZAR 29 billion (USD 2.15 billion) in cumulative treatment investments over the 14 years to 2030. Plausible scale‐ups of other proven interventions (VMMC, condom distribution and FSW strategies) could yield additional reductions in new infections (between 4 and 15%), and in overall treatment investment needs. Scaling up VMMC in line with national targets is found to be cost‐effective in the medium term.

Conclusions

The scale‐up in testing and treatment programmes over this decade has been rapid, but these efforts must be doubled to reach 2020 targets. Strategic investments in proven interventions will help Johannesburg achieve the treatment targets and be on track to end AIDS by 2030.

     

A historical review of HIV prevention and care initiatives in British Columbia,Canada: 1996‐2015

Introduction : British Columbia has made significant progress in the treatment and prevention of HIV since 1996, when Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy (HAART) became available. However, we currently lack a historical summary of HIV prevention and care interventions implemented in the province since the introduction of HAART and how they have shaped the HIV epidemic. Guided by a socio‐ecological framework, we present a historical review of biomedical and health services, community and structural interventions implemented in British Columbia from 1996–2015 to prevent HIV transmission or otherwise enhance the cascade of HIV care. Methods : We constructed a historical timeline of HIV interventions implemented in BC between 1996 and 2015 by reviewing publicly available reports, guidelines and other documents from provincial health agencies, community organizations and AIDS service organizations, and by conducting searches of peer‐reviewed literature through PubMed and Ovid MEDLINE. We collected further programmatic information by administering a data collection form to representatives from BC's regional health authorities and an umbrella agency representing 45 AIDS Service organizations. Using linked population‐level health administrative data, we identified key phases of the HIV epidemic in British Columbia, as characterized by distinct changes in HIV incidence, HAART uptake and the provincial HIV response. Results and Discussion : In total, we identified 175 HIV prevention and care interventions implemented in BC from 1996 to 2015. We identify and describe four phases in BC's response to HIV/AIDS: the early HAART phase (1996–1999); the harm reduction and health service scale‐up phase (2000–2005); the early Treatment as Prevention phase (2006–2009); and the STOP HIV/AIDS phase (2010‐present). In doing so, we provide an overview of British Columbia's universal and centralized HIV treatment system and detail the role of community‐based and provincial stakeholders in advancing innovative prevention and harm reduction approaches, as well as “seek, test, treat and retain” strategies. Conclusions : The review provides valuable insight into British Columbia's HIV response, highlights emerging priorities, and may inform future efforts to evaluate the causal impact of interventions.