The frequency of multiple sclerosis in Mediterranean Europe

Recent investigations on multiple sclerosis (MS) distribution in Italy, based on relatively small population groups, contradict the current thesis, derived from studies undertaken in populations exceeding 300,000, of a lower spreading of the disease in Mediterranean Europe. Intensive surveys on small populations strengthen the suggestion that Italy is a high-risk area, although MS studies based on prevalence rather than incidence could also be biased by geographic variables making prevalence unsuitable for comparing MS prevalence rates found in different years and/or zones. We report a further epidemiologic study in Barbagia, Sardinia, insular Italy, undertaken both to establish the MS incidence in the last 20 years, and to estimate a new prevalence rate. Based on 31 probable incident cases, the mean incidence per year for the years 1961-1980 was 2.9 per 100,000 (3.2 if age- and sex-standardized to the Italian population). On October 24, 1981, the prevalence per 100,000 was 65.3 (77.9 if standardized to the Italian population). These results confirm that in Barbagia, MS occurs more frequently than expected in a Mediterranean area, and give further support to the idea that MS frequency in Italy is similar to that established for most central and northern European countries.     

A prevalence study of multiple sclerosis in L'Aquila, central Italy

We report the results of an epidemiologic study in the Municipality of L'Aquila, Abruzzo, Central Italy, undertaken to estimate the prevalence rate of Multiple Sclerosis (MS). On December 31, 1984, the prevalence was 33.2 per 100,000 (34.2 when age and sex is standardized to the Italian population). In agreement with recent intensive surveys from different regions in the North and South of Italy, our data indicate that the prevalence of MS in Italy is higher than 30 per 100,000, and emphasize the importance of small population studies in the epidemiology of MS. Our findings suggest that in Italy the risk for MS is higher than recorded before.     

Multiple sclerosis in northern Italy. Prevalence in the province of Ferrara in 1978

Most available Italian studies indicate that the prevalence of multiple sclerosis (MS) in Italy is lower than 20 per 100,000. Much higher prevalence figures, however, have been recently found in small communities in Sicily. On this basis, it has been suggested that the frequency of MS in Italy has been seriously underestimated and that the true prevalence for MS is probably similar to that established for northern European countries. This paper reports the results of a survey of MS in the various public health districts of the province of Ferrara. The public health districts are homogeneous medical units serving small populations and therefore represent ideal areas for epidemiological purposes. The total prevalence rate of probable MS for the whole province has been found to be at least 26.9 per 100,000. This result supports the view that the frequency of MS in Italy is higher than that indicated by most published studies, but not that Italy is an area of high risk for MS.

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Sommario La grande maggioranza degli studi epidemiologici finora pubblicati indicano che la prevalenza della sclerosi multipla (MS) in Italia è inferiore a 20 casi per 100,000 abitanti. Recenti indagini effettuate su piccole comunità della Sicilia, tuttavia, hanno rilevato indici di prevalenza assai più alti. Su tale base, è stato affermato che la frequenza della MS in Italia è sottostimata e che la reale frequenza della malattia è probabilmente simile a quella rilevata nell'Europa settentrionale. Questo lavoro riporta i risultati di una indagine intensiva sulla prevalenza della MS nei “consorzi socio-sanitari” della provincia di Ferrara. Tali consorzi aggregano comuni abbastanza omogenei per condizioni sanitarie e sociali, ed hanno popolazioni non troppo grandi per studi epidemiologici. La prevalenza totale della MS nella provincia di Ferrara è risultata essere 26,9 per 100,000 abitanti. Questo risultato convalida la tesi che la frequenza della malattia in Italia sia maggiore di quella comunemente indicata, ma non conferma l'ipotesi che l'Italia sia una zona di alto rischio per la sclerosi multipla.

     

Multiple sclerosis in the Republic of San Marino,Italian peninsula: an incidence and prevalence study from a high-risk area

Epidemiological studies on multiple sclerosis (MS) carried out in Southern Europe in the last years have shown a significant increase in the disease frequency. Previous surveys conducted in the Republic of San Marino, Northern Italian peninsula, identified that the population is at high risk for MS, with a prevalence of 51.6 per 100,000 population in 1982 and of 166.7 in 2005 and with a mean annual incidence of 7.9 per 100,000 for the period 1990–2005. The present work is a community-based intensive prevalence and incidence survey, by a complete enumeration approach, to update the prevalence and incidence of MS in the Republic of San Marino. The mean annual incidence for the period 2005–14 was 7.7 (95% CI 4.9–11.4) per 100,000, 3.3 (95% CI 1.1–7.6) for men and 11.9 (95% CI 7.2–18.6) for women. On 31 December 2014, 67 patients (19 men and 48 women), suffering from definite or probable MS and living in the Republic of San Marino, yielded a crude prevalence of 204.3 (95% CI 158.4–259.5) per 100,000, 117.8 (95% CI 70.9–183.7) for men and 288.2 (95% CI 212.4–383.3) for women. Our study has confirmed San Marino is an area at high risk for MS, in line with epidemiological data from continental Italy. The marked increase in MS prevalence over time in this population can be ascribable to increased survival and improved ascertainment, in the presence of a substantially stable, yet high, incidence rate.     

Estimated prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Italy in 2015

Italy is a high risk area for multiple sclerosis (MS) as confirmed by the numerous prevalence and incidence studies conducted in several regions/districts of the country. Nevertheless, there are no recent published epidemiological data, nor studies about the total prevalence of MS in Italy. Our aim was to update as of 2015 the prevalence rates of MS in different geographical areas using already published epidemiological studies, and to estimate the overall prevalence of the disease in Italy. We made a search in MEDLINE database of all published studies on epidemiology of MS in Italy. Then, we applied, to the already published prevalence data, the last published incidence and mortality rates to recalculate, as of 2015, the prevalence of MS. So, we calculated the mean prevalence rate from our extrapolations, and we applied it to the population in 2015 to estimate the number of MS patients in Italy. Our prevalence extrapolations ranged from 122 to 232 cases/100,000 in the mainland and Sicily, with an average of 176/100,000, and from 280 to 317 cases/100,000 in Sardinia with an average of 299/100,000. Applying these media to the Italian population in 2015, we obtained an estimate of more than 109,000 MS patients in Italy. Our estimates were higher than the latest published rates but consistent with the annual increase of prevalence due to incidence that exceeds mortality, with the increase of survival and, maybe, with the probable increase of incidence.     

The increasing incidence and prevalence of MS in a Sardinian province

OBJECTIVE: To verify incidence rates and their temporal trend in a homogeneous, ethnically, and genetically distinct population of central Sardinia (the Nuoro province). BACKGROUND: Intensive epidemiologic studies carried out in Sardinia since the 1970s have suggested that the prevalence and incidence of MS are much higher in this Mediterranean island compared with those found on mainland Italy. METHODS: The study area had a population of approximately 274, 000 people in the 1991 census. The authors adopted a complete enumerative approach by reviewing all possible sources of case collection available in the investigative area. RESULTS: Based on 469 MS patients, the mean annual incidence for 1955 to 1995 was 4.18 per 100,000 (or 4.3 per 100,000 if age- and sex-adjusted to the European population). The incidence, averaging 1.95 per 100,000 during 1955 to 1959, rose progressively over time, reaching rates of 6.6 in the quinquiennium 1985 to 1989 and 6.4 per 100,000 in 1990 to 1995. On December 31, 1994, the crude prevalence, based on 415 MS patients alive in the study area, was 151.9 per 100,000 (156.6 if adjusted to the European population). CONCLUSION: These incidence and prevalence rates are the highest to date that have been estimated for a large community in southern Europe, and they constitute some of the highest rates in the world. Based on other surveys, these results reinforce the position of Sardinia as a higher and rising prevalence area for MS compared with other Mediterranean populations. Genetic and social-historic data strengthen the hypothesis of the environmental role and genetic factors among Sardinians in determining the notable difference in MS frequency between Sardinians and other Mediterraneans.     

Hochrechnung der Zahl an Multiple Sklerose erkrankten Patienten in Deutschland

For determining the prevalence of multiple sclerosis (MS) in Germany, the outcomes of several epidemiological studies are available. If these rates are transferred to Germany as a whole, figures result of 67,000 to 138,000 MS patients in all. The differing prevalence rates may be caused by various problems in finding patients, the epidemiological area, and different population structures. To avoid these difficulties, a new approach for calculating the number of patients with diagnosed MS was chosen based on representative samples taken from the groups of physicians involved in MS treatment. The disadvantage of this approach is that it does not allow any questioning of the diagnosis. Projecting the results in this way and their subsequent compilation--taking "double treatments" into consideration--showed a total of 122,000 patients with diagnosed multiple sclerosis in Germany. This figure corresponds to a prevalence rate of 149.1 per 100,000 inhabitants and is within the range found by Poser et al. [19]: 127 per 100,000 excluding the diagnostic category "possible multiple sclerosis" and 170 per 100,000 including it.     

Prevalence and incidence of multiple sclerosis in Catania, Sicily

OBJECTIVE: An epidemiologic survey was conducted to determine the prevalence and incidence of MS in the city of Catania, Sicily, Italy. Prevalence rate was calculated as point prevalence at January 1,1995, and incidence during 1974 to 1995. METHODS: The authors studied the frequency of MS in the community of Catania in a population of 333,075 inhabitants according to the 1991 census. The primary sources for the case ascertainment were the neurologic and motor rehabilitation departments, the MS Center, the Italian MS Association, private neurologists, and family doctors. All patients who satisfied the Poser criteria for clinically definite MS, laboratory-supported definite MS, clinically probable MS, and laboratory-supported probable MS were considered prevalent and incident cases. RESULTS: One hundred ninety-five patients with MS who had had the onset of disease on prevalence day in a population of 333,075 inhabitants were detected. The prevalence rate was 58.5 per 100,000 (95% CI 50.7 to 67.5). Prevalence was higher in women (62.0/100,000) than in men (54.8/100,000). The age-specific prevalence showed a peak in the group aged 35 to 44 (145.1/100,000). From 1975 to 1994, 170 subjects with MS had the clinical onset of the disease. The mean annual incidence was 2.3 per 100,000 (95% CI 2.0 to 2.6). Age-specific incidence showed a peak in the group aged 25 to 34 (6.32/100,000). Incidence for 5-year intervals increased from 1.3 during 1975 to 1979 to 3.9 during 1990 to 1994. CONCLUSIONS: These prevalence and incidence rates are close to those reported in other similar surveys carried out in Italy and southern Europe.     

Incidence of multiple sclerosis among First Nations people in Alberta, Canada

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is thought to be rare among North American aboriginals, although few population-based frequency studies have been conducted. Data from government health databases were used to describe the incidence of MS among First Nations aboriginal people in the province of Alberta compared to the general population from 1994 to 2002. The general population rates were consistently higher than First Nations rates, but were essentially stable across this time span for both groups. For First Nations the MS incidence was 7.6 per 100,000 and 20.6 per 100,000 for the general population in 2002. During 2000-2002 for First Nations the incidence was 12.7 for females and 7.6 for males, with a female-to-male ratio of 1.7:1. During the same period the general population incidence was 32.2 for females and 12.7 for males, with a female-to-male ratio of 2.5:1. The peak incidence for both First Nations and the general population of Alberta was in the age group 30-39 years in 2002. The high incidence rates are consistent with high prevalence rates reported for both groups in 2002: 99.9 per 100,000 for First Nations and 335.0 per 100,000 for the general population. While the MS incidence in First Nations people is lower than in the general population of Alberta, it is not rare by worldwide standards.     

Bayesian mapping of multiple sclerosis prevalence in the province of Pavia, northern Italy

The geographical analysis of a disease risk is particularly difficult when the disease is non-frequent and the area units are small. The practical use of the Bayesian modelling, instead of the classical frequentist one, is applied to study the geographical variation of multiple sclerosis (MS) across the province of Pavia, Northern Italy. 464 MS-affected individuals resident in the province of Pavia were identified on December 31st 2000. The overall prevalence was 94 per 100,000 inhabitants. This estimate indicates an increasing MS prevalence in the province, in accordance with the vast majority of the Italian areas where prevalence studies have been repeated. We mapped the geographical variation of MS prevalence across the 190 communes of the province both with a classical approach and a Bayesian approach. The frequentist approach produced an extremely dishomogeneous map, while the Bayesian map was much smoother and more interpretable. Our study underlines the usefulness of Bayesian methods to obtain reliable maps of disease prevalence and to identify possible clusters of disease where to carry out further epidemiological investigations.     

High incidence and increasing prevalence of MS in Enna (Sicily), southern Italy.

Twenty years after a first survey, a follow-up study was performed on the prevalence of MS in Enna (Sicily), southern Italy. The prevalence of definite MS rose from 53 to 120.2 per 100,000 population. The incidence of definite MS for the period 1986 to 1995 was 5.7 per 100,000 per year. The innermost part of Sicily shows an elevated prevalence of MS, second only to Sardinia in the Mediterranean area.     

Frequency of multiple sclerosis in Valle d'Aosta, 1971-1985

According to studies done before 1980, the multiple sclerosis (MS) prevalence rate in Italy ranged from 7.2 to 27.1 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. More recent work has consistently put the MS prevalence rate to over 30 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. If these recent data are confirmed in the future, Italy can no longer be regarded as a country at low risk for MS, but must be included among the medium-high risk countries of continental Europe. We report the results of a prevalence and incidence survey conducted in Valle d'Aosta, a region whose special features make it an excellent epidemiological model. The mean annual incidence was 2.1 and on December 31, 1985, the prevalence was 39 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. These results confirm that the incidence and prevalence rate of MS in Valle d'Aosta is close to that of areas at high-risk for MS.     

A REASSESSMENT OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF MULTIPLE SCLEROSIS

When reviewed some 10 years ago, available prevalence studies of multiple sclerosis (MS) seemed to divide the world into three frequency zones for MS: high prevalence at 30 to 60 per 100,000 population; medium at 5 to 15; and low at less than 5 per 100,000. In the last decade the number of the available studies has more than tripled. Their reassessment, including judgments of comparability, still indicates a high-medium-low division of MS frequency world-wide. The risk areas comprise northern Europe, northern United States, much of southern Canada, New Zealand, and probably southern Australia. Prevalence rates in these regions are mostly 30 to 80 per 100,000 population, centering at about 50. Medium frequency is defined as prevalence of 5 to 25, and is mostly 10 to 15. In Europe, the medium frequency zone bounds that of high frequency to the north, east, and south. The European Mediterranean basin is of medium prevalence with a sharp division from the high zone across France and Switzerland. It is likely that this division continues eastward across Austria, north of Hungary, and across the upper Ukraine to the Caspien Sea, but this is not definite. Medium risk areas of Europe thus include surveyed sites of Spain, Italy, Hungary, Jugoslavia, Bulgaria, and central Ukraine, together with southeastern France and southern Switzerland. Though Romania could be high, it is more likely to be of medium prevalence. Turkey measures low, but from incomplete data. From nationwide prevalence and mortality studies, the west coast of Norway and all Scandinavia above latitude 65 degrees north are of medium frequency. Based on hospital data, northwestern USSR is high, and central and southern USSR medium, in MS risk. Other medium risk areas include southern United States, most of Australia, one ethnic group only in South Africs, and possibly Hawaii. Low risk areas are allsurveyed sites of Asia, the Pacific islands, Africa, Latin America, Alaska, and Greenland.     

The prevalence of multiple sclerosis in the north–west Italian province of Genoa

The objective of this study was to assess the prevalence of multiple sclerosis (MS), calculated as point prevalence on 31 December 1997, in the province of Genoa, North–western Italy. Methods The province of Genoa is located in North–western Italy, an area of 1835 km². On the point prevalence day the population consisted of 913,218 inhabitants. MS cases were identified by analysing archives of the hospitals with neurological or rehabilitation wards, neurologists serving the community, files of local chapters of the Italian MS society, all requests for oligoclonal bands analysis on CSF in the studied area. Patients included in the study were MS cases diagnosed before 31 December 1997 according to the Poser criteria resident in the province under study. Results A total of 857 subjects were alive and residing in the province of Genoa on the prevalence day. The overall crude prevalence rate was 94 per 100,000 (95% CI 88–100); 291 were males (34%) with a crude prevalence of 67 per 100,000 (95 % CI 60–76) and 566 were females (66%) with a prevalence of 118 per 100,000 (95% CI 108–128). The female/male ratio was 1.9. When age and sex were adjusted to the Italian standard population of 1991 prevalence was 85 per 100,000. Five hundred and thirty two out of the 857 patients agreed to be interviewed. The interviewed sample was representative of the prevalence sample: sex and gender distributions were identical in the two samples. The overall mean age was 48 (± 13) years (48 ± 12 years in males; 48 ± 14 years in females). Mean disease duration was 15 (± 10) years for males and 16 (± 11) years for females. Two hundred and ninety one (55 %) subjects had a relapsing remitting (RR) clinical course, 150 (28%) were secondary progressive (SP) and 91 (17%) were primary progressive (PP). Mean EDSS score was 5 (± 2; median 5). The mean age at time of onset was 33 (±10) years for males and 32 (± 11) years for females. The disease onset was monosymptomatic in 76% (n = 407) patients and polysymptomatic in 24% (n = 125). The mean length of time between clinical onset and diagnosis was 5 (± 6) years. Conclusion We confirmed that the province of Genoa is a very high risk area for MS. We found a high rate of patients with a PP course; also the proportion of patients with high disability scores is greater compared to previous studies.     

Multiple sclerosis in southern Europe: Monreale City, Italy. A twenty-year follow-up incidence and prevalence study

BACKGROUND: Several follow-up studies showed increasing prevalence and incidence rates for multiple sclerosis (MS). OBJECTIVE: To ascertain, throughout a follow-up study, the incidence and prevalence of MS in the city of Monreale, Sicily, southern Italy. METHODS: We calculated crude and age- and sex-specific prevalence rates on December 31, 2000, and determined incidence rates for the period January 1, 1992 to December 31, 2000. RESULTS: The prevalence of MS was 71.2 per 100,000 population (48,5/100,000 in men; 93,0/100,000 in women). The incidence rate of MS for the period 1992-2000 was 4.0/100,000 per year. CONCLUSION: This study showed a nonsignificant increase in MS incidence rates in Monreale city for 1992-2000 compared to 1981-1991. Prevalence rates were similar to those of the previous follow-up study. Intervals between onset of symptoms and diagnosis seemed shorter than in prior studies. There is no evidence that the high prevalence and incidence rates have changed in this interval but numbers are too small for firm statements. These findings indicate that in Monreale city MS prevalence is stable and confirm Sicily as a high-risk area for MS.     

Prevalence of multiple sclerosis in First Nations people of Alberta

BACKGROUND: Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is reported to be uncommon among North American aboriginals despite frequent intermarriage with people of European ancestry, but few population-based studies have been conducted. The purpose of this study was to determine the prevalence of MS among First Nations aboriginal people in Alberta, Canada compared to the general population. METHODS: All hospital in-patient and physician fee-for-service records between 1994 and 2002 where a diagnosis of MS was mentioned were extracted from government health databases in the province of Alberta. First Nations people can be identified since the federal government (Health Canada) pays health care insurance premiums on their behalf. Multiple Sclerosis prevalence per 100,000 population for both First Nations people and the general population of Alberta were calculated for each year during this time span. RESULTS: Among First Nations in Alberta, MS prevalence was 56.3 per 100,000 in 1994 and 99.9 per 100,000 in 2002, an increase of 43.6%. In 2002 prevalence was 158.1 and 38.0 for females and males respectively, a female to male ratio of 4.2:1. Multiple Sclerosis prevalence among the general population of Alberta was 262.6 per 100,000 in 1994 and 335.0 per 100,000 in 2002, an increase of 21.6%. In 2002 prevalence was 481.5 and 187.5 for females and males respectively, a female to male ratio of 2.6:1. Peak prevalence for both First Nations and general population females in 2002 was age 50-59, also 50-59 for both First Nations and general population males. CONCLUSION: While MS prevalence in First Nations people is lower than in the general population of Alberta, it is not rare by worldwide standards.     

Epidemiologic survey of multiple sclerosis in the Bucharest city and suburban area

Epidemiologic survey over a restricted area of Romanian territory, i.e. the city of Bucharest with a population of 1,934,052 and a surface of 605 km², established the following values for the MS parameters studied.
On January 5, 1977 the prevalence rate for "probable" and "possible" cases was 46.4 per 100,000 inhabitants and for "probable" cases alone (with certain clinical diagnosis) 41.3 per 100,000.
The specific 20- to 60-year age adjusted prevalence rate was 79.4 per 100,000. The incidence rate over the 1969–1976 period was 1.78 per 100,000.
The prevalence and incidence rates in this survey are similar to those reported for two other large urban centers of Romania (population over 100,000 each), Romania being therefore situated in a geographical area of "high risk" for MS.
The 0.61 per 100,000 nationwide and the 0.65 per 100,000 Bucharest mortality rates are lower than those reported in other geographical areas of "high risk" for MS.     

A further study on the prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Sicily: Caltanissetta city

The prevalence of probable multiple sclerosis (MS) in Caltanissetta city, Sicily, is at least 51 per 100,000. If possible multiple sclerosis patients are included, it is 54 per 100,000. This value is similar to that found in other cities in Sicily: Enna, Monreale and Agrigento. The high prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Caltanissetta confirms the previous data on Sicily and emphasises the importance of small population studies in the epidemiology of MS.     

Multiple sclerosis epidemiology in Sardinia: evidence for a true increasing risk

OBJECTIVES: To update prevalence and incidence rates of MS among Sardinians. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The present work is a "spider" kind of population based survey, conducted over the interval 1968-97, on patients with MS (Poser criteria) living in the province of Sassari, Northern Sardinia (454,904 population). RESULTS: A crude total prevalence rate of 144.4 per 100,000, an onset-adjusted prevalence rate of 149.7 per 100,000 and an average annual incidence rate of 8.2 for the period 1993-7 were found. CONCLUSION: Repeated epidemiological assessments of MS in Sardinia over decades have shown that the island is at high risk for MS. The present work highlights that MS incidence in Sardinia has been increasing over time. Although a substantial and widely spread improvement in MS case ascertainment can be postulated as the reason for such observations, a comparison between our data and those recently reported from a more industrialized province in Northern Italy seems to prove an at least partially real increase in MS risk among Sardinians and favours the hypothesis of a MS "Sardinian focus" as related to its latitude.