Time-dependent prognostic factors of 6-month mortality in frail elderly patients admitted to post-acute care

OBJECTIVE: To determine the association between functional and nutritional changes caused by an acute illness requiring hospitalisation and 6-month mortality. DESIGN: Hospital-based prospective longitudinal cohort study. SETTING: Acute care centre (Hospital General de Vic, Barcelona Province, Spain). Post-acute care centre (Hospital de la Santa Creu de Vic, Barcelona Province, Spain). SUBJECTS: Hundred sixty five patients aged 75 years and older, hospitalised for an acute event. METHODS: Functional status (Barthel and Lawton Indices), cognitive status (Short Portable Mental Status Questionnaire), nutritional status (Mini Nutritional Assessment, albumin, cholesterol), depressive symptoms (Geriatric Depression Scale), co-morbidity (Charlson Index) and self-rated health status were collected upon admission to the post-acute care centre. Functional and nutritional status were assessed 1, 3 and 6 months after admission by a trained staff of geriatricians. Six-month mortality was the main outcome variable. Survival analysis was performed with functional and nutritional status as time-dependent variables. RESULTS: The mean age of the cohort was 83.3 years (SD 5.1) and 68.5% were female. Six-month mortality was 29.1% (95% CI: 22.2-36.7). The variables associated with mortality in bivariate analysis were: gender, Barthel Index (2 weeks before admission), Lawton Index (2 weeks before admission), Charlson Index, Barthel Index (time-dependent), Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA) (time-dependent) and cognitive status. The variables associated with mortality in multivariate analysis were: gender, Barthel Index (2 weeks before admission), Charlson Index and MNA (time-dependent). CONCLUSIONS: Functional and nutritional changes due to an acute illness have a statistical and clinical prognostic value and should be assessed along with other well-known relevant prognostic factors.     

Clinical prognostic indices of fatality in elderly patients admitted to hospital with acute pneumonia

Acute pneumonia in the elderly is a common and serious condition. The importance of key clinical features and physical signs presenting to the junior hospital doctor was prospectively assessed in 100 consecutive patients admitted acutely to two hospitals. The most significant finding is that elderly patients with pneumonia who are found to be acutely confused at the time of presentation or who gave a previous history of chronic brain failure are much more likely to die than others. Thus such patients should be assessed with particular attention to the early diagnosis and vigorous treatment of pneumonia.     

Hypothermia and infection in elderly patients admitted to hospital

Twenty-five consecutive elderly patients with hypothermia were studied. Data were gathered regarding their home conditions, the circumstances in which they had been found, and their recent medical history. Clinical and laboratory examinations were performed to establish accurate diagnoses of underlying illnesses present at the time of arrival in hospital. Patients were followed up until the completion of the study. Evidence of an underlying cause was found in all cases. Twenty-two patients had evidence of definite or probable infection at the time of admission. Drugs may have contributed in seven cases. There were multiple significant causes for hypothermia in nine cases. Only 12 patients survived the index admission, and six of these had previous or subsequent admissions with hypothermia.     

A survey of elderly patients admitted to hospital for social reasons

A random 4% sample of the over 65's discharged from general hospitals throughout Wales was selected from Welsh Office HAA returns. Included within the group were 101 patients admitted for social reasons (ICD code V600 to V6055). Such patients were predominantly very elderly, female and extremely disabled. Typically such patients lived with, and were being cared for, by relatives. The majority of admissions were booked or planned to provide relief to these carers. Geographical variations in the use of such care was demonstrated. Use of domiciliary medical services by these patients was extremely high in contrast to their use of domiciliary social services. Mortality and re-admission rates at 3 months and 12 months after the initial discharge were very high and hospital treatment had little influence upon patients' disability. However, the short mean length of stay suggests that such patients do not 'block beds'.     

老年患者医院获得性肺炎的危险因素分析

目的探讨老年患者医院获得性肺炎（HAP）的危险因素,为临床预防和治疗疾病提供依据。方法回顾性分析60例老年患者,依据是否合并HAP分为研究组（合并HAP）和对照组（未合并HAP）各30例,采用非条件Logistic回归分析方法分析发生HAP的危险因素。结果研究组较对照组患有基础疾病种类多、留置胃管率高、应用抑酸药物率高、白蛋白水平偏低、动静脉插管率高（P〈0.05）,多因素分析显示脑血管疾病、使用抑酸剂、留置胃管、白蛋白水平偏低是发生HAP的独立危险因素。结论老年HAP患者具有的危险因素多,积极采取综合防范措施,减少危险因素,是降低HAP发生率的关键。     

老年脑卒中相关性肺炎病原学特点及危险因素分析

目的探讨老年脑卒中相关性肺炎(SAP)的病原学特点及危险因素。方法对239例老年脑卒中患者的慢性基础疾病、意识状态、有无侵入性操作、病原学检查结果、药物使用情况等临床资料进行回顾性调查,比较分析SAP的病原学特点及相关危险因素。结果 239例老年脑卒中患者发生SAP 56例,感染率为23.4%,例次感染率为26.8%,感染病原菌以革兰氏阴性杆菌为主,占65.0%,排在前三位的病原菌依次是铜假绿单胞菌(23.8%)、鲍蔓不动杆菌(16.3%)、肺炎克雷伯菌(15.0%)。住院天数≥30 d、有侵入性操作、有意识障碍、使用多种抗菌药物、有慢性基础病等是SAP的危险因素。结论老年脑卒中患者是SAP的高危人群,应重点监测,控制相关危险因素,积极采取个性化的预防措施,以有效地降低SAP的发生率。     

A prognostic rule for elderly patients admitted with community-acquired pneumonia.

PURPOSE: We sought to identify admission characteristics predicting mortality in elderly patients hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia and to develop a prognostic staging system and discriminant rule. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed data from 2,356 patients aged > or = 65 years admitted with community-acquired pneumonia. Multivariable analyses of a derivation cohort (n = 1,000) identified characteristics associated with hospital mortality. A staging system and discriminant rule based on these characteristics were tested in a validation cohort (n = 1,356). Our discriminant rule was compared with a rule formulated from a heterogeneous adult population with community-acquired pneumonia. RESULTS: Hospital mortality rates were 9% (derivation cohort) and 12% (validation cohort). We identified five independent predictors of mortality: age > or = 85 years [odds ratio 1.8 (95% confidence interval 1.1-3.1)], comorbid disease [odds ratio 4.1 (2.1-8.1)], impaired motor response [odds ratio 2.3 (1.4-3.7)], vital sign abnormality [odds ratio 3.4 (2.1-5.4)], and creatinine level > or = 1.5 mg/dL [odds ratio 2.5 (1.5-4.2)]. These variables stratified patients into four distinct stages with increasing mortality in the derivation cohort (Stage 1, 2%; Stage 2, 7%; Stage 3, 22%; Stage 4, 45%; P = 0.001) as well as in the validation cohort (Stage 1, 4%; Stage 2, 11%; Stage 3, 23%; Stage 4, 41%; P = 0.001). The discriminant rule developed from the derivation cohort had greater overall accuracy (77.1%) in the validation cohort than a rule formulated from a heterogeneous adult population (68.0%, P = 0.001). CONCLUSION: Elderly patients with community-acquired pneumonia have characteristics at admission that can predict mortality. Our staging system and discriminant rule improve prognostic stratification of these patients.     

住院老年人社区获得性肺炎危险因素的病例对照研究

目的 探讨住院老年人社区获得性肺炎(CAP)的危险因素,为预防老年人CAP提供临床参考.方法 采用配对病例对照研究,将患者分为CAP组和对照组,进行问卷调查基础疾病和生活质量,检查和评价营养状态.采用条件Logistie回归进行住院老年人CAP的危险因素分析.结果 入选病例138例,男性90例(65%),女性48例(35%).CAP组69例,年龄61～94岁,平均(74.5±6.9)岁;对照组69例,年龄60～89岁,平均(73.6±6.9)岁.单因素分析结果提示,曾经吸烟(OR=5.71)、目前正在吸烟(OR=18.26)、慢性支气管炎(OR=3.75)、既往肺结核病史(OR=2.67)、入选前1年内因肺炎住院史(OR=14.93)、入选前1～2年因肺炎住院史(OR=5.99)、营养状况中等(OR=5.11)、营养状况较差(OR=11.55)、体质指数(OR=0.81)、血清白蛋白水平(OR=0.14)、外周血淋巴细胞计数(OR=0.50)、日常生活能力量表(ADL)评分(OR=0.46)、轻度体育活动(OR=0.24)、中度体育活动(OR=0,04)、进餐时间长短(OR=1.11)为老年人CAP的危险因素(均为P＜0.05).多因素回归分析显示,ADL评分(OR=0.34)、曾经吸烟(OR=15.98)、目前正在吸烟(OR=73.85)、慢性支气管炎病史(OR=22.88)、体质指数(OR=0.76)、人选前1年内因肺炎住院史(OR=55.56)、入选前1～2年因肺炎住院史(OR=30.30)是老年人CAP的独立危险因素,差异均有统计学意义(均为P＜0.05).结论 吸烟、慢性支气管炎、肺炎住院史、营养不良是老年人易患肺炎的危险因素.     

老年人社区获得性肺炎的相关危险因素分析

目的 探讨老年人发生社区获得性肺炎的相关危险因素,为临床防治提供依据. 方法 选择我院2013年1月至2014年12月收治的168例老年社区获得性肺炎患者作为观察组,另外选择同期医院就诊的100例非社区获得性肺炎老年患者为对照组;调查其临床资料,分析其发生社区获得性肺炎的相关危险因素. 结果 单因素分析结果显示,两组患者在血清白蛋白水平、是否饲养宠物、吸烟史、粉尘接触史、支气管疾病、肾功能异常和糖尿病史等因素间差异有统计学意义(均P＜0.05);多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示,血清白蛋白水平、是否饲养宠物、吸烟史、患有支气管疾病和糖尿病为社区获得性肺炎的独立危险因素(OR=2.793、2.578、3.017、3.168和2.643,均P＜0.05). 结论 老年人社区获得性肺炎与多种因素相关,临床应针对其相关危险因素制定相应的防治措施,对早诊断、早治疗和改善社区获得性肺炎的预后具有重要意义.     

老年医疗护理相关性肺炎多重耐药菌感染的影响因素及预后

目的考察影响老年医疗护理相关性肺炎（heahhcare—associatedpneumonia,HcAP）多重耐药（muhidrug—resistance,MDR）菌感染及预后的因素。方法前瞻性收集2007年1月至2012年1月间因HCAP住院、年龄≥65岁患者的下呼吸道、血、胸水等标本,行病原学鉴定,观察MDR比例,Logistic回归筛选与MDR感染及死亡相关的危险因素。结果286例获得病原学诊断患者中,MDR感染121例（42．3％）。在HCAP定义的各种危险因素中,90d内住院、家庭医疗护理、病情危重和前期应用抗生素为MDR感染的独立危险因素。死亡与患者年龄、家庭护理／医疗护理机构居住、肺炎严重指数、简易急性生理评分Ⅱ、未及时抗生素治疗密切相关,而与MDR感染及是否依从指南选择抗生素治疗无关。结论MDR感染仅占老年HCAP的一部分,且与患者死亡无必然的联系。HCAP定义的各种危险因素在预测MDR感染时差别较大,应探索更有效的方法评估HCAP中MDR的感染。     

An evaluation of an alternative to long-stay hospital care for frail elderly patients: II. Costs and effectiveness.

This paper provides the main findings of an evaluation of a service to provide alternative care at home for patients receiving long-stay hospital care. Elderly people receiving the service were compared with a group of similar patients in an adjacent health district. The paper presents data on length of time at home and in hospital, changes in quality of life and care of elderly people, and effects upon informal carers for the two groups. Elderly people receiving community-based care had a higher quality of life, and there was no evidence of greater stress upon their carers. The community-based service, although it involved extra costs to the social services department, had lower costs for the health service and society as a whole than long-stay hospital provision. It is concluded that the model of care can effectively integrate the new approach of case management into an existing geriatric multidisciplinary team.     

老年患者卧床不起的危险因素分析

目的探索老年人卧床不起的危险因素。方法应用病例对照研究方法，对卧床不起和非卧床不起老年患者各121例，采用自制结构式问卷进行躯体、心理和社会因素调查。结果脑卒中、晚期恶性肿瘤、器官功能衰竭、高龄、老年性痴呆等疾病的相对危险度（OR值）分别为4．94、1．72、8．34、5．65、11．99。老年卧床不起患者抑郁（12．3）、焦虑评分（47．0）明显高于对照组（7．5和40．1，P=0．00）；生活满意度评分（11．2）明显低于对照组（13．8，P=0．00）；社会支持总分（38．4）、主观支持评分（20．7）和支持利用度评分（7．6）明显低于对照组（分别为42．7、23．2和8．4，P〈0．01），而客观支持评分两组无差异（分别为10．1及11．1，P〉0．05）。结论脑卒中、晚期恶性肿瘤、器官功能衰竭、高龄、老年性痴呆等是导致老年人卧床不起主要的躯体危险因素；抑郁、焦虑是老年卧床不起的心理危险因素；社会支持水平低下是老年卧床不起的社会危险因素。     

老年脑卒中患者医院内肺部感染的危险因素分析

目的 探讨引起老年卒中患者院内肺部感染的危险因素.方法 对我院2002年1月至2007年6月收治的60岁及以上老年人259例卒中患者资料进行分析,根据临床症状和病原学检测确定院内肺部感染并对其危险因素予以分析.结果 卒中患者院内肺部感染发生率为41.3%.引起医院内肺部感染的危险因素主要有年龄、住院时间、卒中类型、意识障碍、基础疾病、吸烟史、气管插管、气管切开和呼吸机的应用等.结论 早期有效加强对院内肺部感染的危险因素的处理.积极恢复患者意识,可降低感染率,改善患者预后.     

Characteristics of acute renal failure in elderly patients admitted to a small town hospital

We studied the features of acute renal failure (ARF) in elderly patients treated in a hospital, without an intensive care unit, to identify etiological factors and establish adequate preventive measures and treatment. During twelve consecutive months we studied prospectively 99 patients with ARF diagnosed by conventional criteria, an incidence of 1,238 cases per million per year. ARF affected 1.78% of patients admitted to hospital. We analyzed age, sex, serum creatinine, diuresis, etiology, type of ARF, preexisting chronic diseases, treatment, complications and outcome. Preexisting chronic diseases were common, the most frequent being hypertension (54%) and diabetes (39%). Previous treatments for cardiovascular diseases were frequent (angiotensin-renin system blockade 35.4%, diuretics 50.5%). 79% of ARF arose in hospital, 21% outside hospital. ARF was pre-renal in 60%, renal in 31% and post-renal in 9%. 34.7% were caused by volume depletion, 23.4% by low cardiac output and 23.4% by infection. 44.4% of ARF patients had oliguria or anuria latrogenic factors contributed to the ethiology of ARF in 35.3% of patients. Hospital stay was doubled by ARF the presence of ARF and the mortality was 36.4%. The rate was higher in ARF arising in hospital than in ARF acquired before admission. Factors that had a significant influence on the mortality rate were comorbid conditions, oliguroanuria, ARF of renal origin and serum albumin. We conclude that ARF has a high incidence, morbidity and mortality in this elderly population. Volume depletion, associated cardiovascular pathology and pharmacological treatment are important etiological factors in those with ARF outside hospital. Adequate treatment of ARF and avoidance of nephrotoxic medications are necessary in hospital.     

An evaluation of an alternative to long-stay hospital care for frail elderly patients: I. The model of care.

Recent UK government policy has advocated the development of case management to provide more coordinated care at home for vulnerable people. This paper describes a service model whereby case managers, with devolved budgets, employed by the social services department, were located in a geriatric multidisciplinary team to provide an alternative for patients requiring long-stay hospital care. As well as co-ordinating packages of care, case managers were responsible for deploying the time of home care assistants, multi-purpose workers who assisted health care staff and undertook home help tasks. The role of case managers within the multidisciplinary team is explained and the tasks undertaken by home care assistants are identified. Home care assistants undertook a wider range of activities than either home helps or nurses, covering both personal and domestic care tasks.     

入住 EICU 的高龄重症肺炎患者院内死亡的危险因素分析

目的：研究影响入住急诊重症监护室(EICU)的高龄(>65岁)重症肺炎患者院内死亡的危险因素。方法回顾性纳入2015年1月1日至5月31日因重症肺炎入住我院 EICU 的高龄患者,统计其院内病死率,同时收集相关临床资料,对病死率产生影响的因素进行分析。结果共纳入了30例重症肺炎患者,平均年龄(81.77±7.78)岁,其中男性19例,平均年龄(79.53±7.25)岁。死亡12人,其中男性8例,平均年龄(81.17±10.20)岁。患者性别、是否全身应用糖皮质激素、近3个月内是否住院治疗以及是否应用机械通气、气管镜治疗、急性生理与慢性健康评分(APACHE Ⅱ评分)与死亡无关,入院时动脉血气分析(ABG)中血乳酸水平以及入院时呼吸频率与院内病死率相关,进一步的多因素分析提示上述指标均不是重症肺炎患者 EICU 院内死亡的独立危险因素。结论动脉血乳酸水平以及入院时呼吸频率与入住 EICU 的重症肺炎患者院内死亡有关,但不是其独立危险因素。     

Tongue-coating as risk indicator for aspiration pneumonia in edentate elderly

Silent aspiration of oral microorganisms is a major cause of aspiration pneumonia. To establish oral hygiene criteria for the prevention of aspiration pneumonia in edentulous elderly persons, we investigated the relationship between presence of tongue-coating and number of oral bacteria in saliva and episodes of pneumonia. A total of 71 edentulous Japanese people aged 65 years or older living in nursing homes were enrolled in the study. A tongue plaque index (TPI) was used to evaluate quantity of tongue-coating, with TPI0 signifying no tongue-coating and TPI1 signifying presence of tongue-coating. Edentate elderly with TPI1 demonstrated significantly higher salivary bacterial counts than those with TPI0 (p < 0.05). The number of elderly patients developing aspiration pneumonia was larger (p < 0.005) in patients with TPI-based poor scores (average TPI > 0.5) than in those with TPI-based good scores. The relative risk of developing pneumonia in the good tongue hygiene group compared with in the poor tongue hygiene group was 0.12, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.02–0.9. The results demonstrate that tongue-coating is associated with number of viable salivary bacterial cells and development of aspiration pneumonia, suggesting that tongue-coating is a risk indicator of aspiration pneumonia in edentate subjects.