10A multi-component model can predict outcome of restrictive surgery for obesity at baseline and 3 months

Introduction:  We previously reported that a multi-component model of autonomic and enteric factors may correlate with ultimate weight loss or gain after restrictive obesity surgery (NGM 2005; 17:472).
Patients:  We report on 39 patients, 4 male, 35 female, mean age 37.2 years, followed for up to 16 years post-operatively after vertical banded gastroplasty.
Methods:  Two autonomic measures (adrenergic: PAR and VC and cholinergic: RRI) and one enteric measure (electrogastrogram: EGG) were recorded at baseline as previously described (DDS 44: 74s–78s, 1999). We performed a discriminant function analysis to investigate whether a patient's EGG, PAR, RRI, and VC values could be used to classify that patient as a loser or gainer following weight control surgery. The patients were divided into two categories (10 gainers, 29 losers), depending on the latest weight compared to baseline; discriminant criterion derived from the patient's data was applied to each patient's autonomic and enteric values to determine whether these measurements separated the patients into their true weight category.
Results:  A discriminate model based on baseline measures successfully predicted ultimate weight gain in 8/10 (80%) of patients who subsequently gained weight and weight loss in 24/29 (83%) of patients who in subsequently lost weight for a total correct classification rate of 32/39 (82%). The same model with data at 3 months post-operatively predicted weight gain in 9 of 10 (90%) of patients and weight loss in 24 of 29 (83%) of patients, for a total correct classification rate of 34/39 pts (87%) (See table).
Conclusions:  A multi-component model demonstrates that baseline and 3 months post-operative measures can predict ultimate weight outcome from restrictive obesity surgery.
 

     

Insular lesions, ECG abnormalities, and outcome in acute stroke

It has been suggested that lesions in the insula may result in abnormal electrocardiographic (ECG) findings and increase the risk of sudden death. We investigated if computed tomography (CT) detected insular lesions due to acute stroke were related to ECG abnormalities and mortality at three months. Acute insular lesions were diagnosed in 43/179 patients (left insular = 25; right insular = 17; bilateral = 1) with acute stroke (cerebral infarcts = 62 and intracerebral haemorrhage = 17) based on CT scans from 5-8 days after stroke onset; 12 lead ECGs were recorded on admission and ECG telemetry was done in the first 12-24 hours after admission. Information regarding mortality at three months was obtained. Insular lesions were related to sinus tachycardia with heart rate >120 bpm (p = 0.001), ectopic beats >10% (p = 0.032), and ST elevation (p = 0.011). Right insular lesions were related to atrial fibrillation (p = 0.009), atrioventricular block (p = 0.029), ectopic beats >10% (p = 0.016), and inverted T wave (p = 0.040). Right insular lesions, compared with left or no insular lesions, increased the odds of death within three months (OR 6.2, 95% CI 1.5 to 25.2) independent of stroke severity, lesion volume, and age. As the number of patients in the present study is relatively small, our findings need to be confirmed in studies on other populations of stroke patients.     

Structural connectome disruption at baseline predicts 6‐months post‐stroke outcome

In this study, models based on quantitative imaging biomarkers of post‐stroke structural connectome disruption were used to predict six‐month outcomes in various domains. Demographic information and clinical MRIs were collected from 40 ischemic stroke subjects (age: 68.1 ± 13.2 years, 17 female, NIHSS: 6.8 ± 5.6). Diffusion‐weighted images were used to create lesion masks, which were uploaded to the Network Modification (NeMo) Tool. The NeMo Tool, using only clinical MRIs, allows estimation of connectome disruption at three levels: whole brain, individual gray matter regions and between pairs of gray matter regions. Partial Least Squares Regression models were constructed for each level of connectome disruption and for each of the three six‐month outcomes: applied cognitive, basic mobility and daily activity. Models based on lesion volume were created for comparison. Cross‐validation, bootstrapping and multiple comparisons corrections were implemented to minimize over‐fitting and Type I errors. The regional disconnection model best predicted applied cognitive (R² = 0.56) and basic mobility outcomes (R² = 0.70), while the pairwise disconnection model best predicted the daily activity measure (R² = 0.72). These results demonstrate that models based on connectome disruption metrics were more accurate than ones based on lesion volume and that increasing anatomical specificity of disconnection metrics does not always increase model accuracy, likely due to statistical adjustments for concomitant increases in data dimensionality. This work establishes that the NeMo Tool's measures of baseline connectome disruption, acquired using only routinely collected MRI scans, can predict 6‐month post‐stroke outcomes in various functional domains including cognition, motor function and daily activities. Hum Brain Mapp, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc .     

Suicidal ideas in stroke patients 3 and 15 months after stroke.

Patients with stroke may have an increased risk of suicide. We sought to examine the frequency and clinical correlates of suicidal ideas 3 and 15 months after stroke. The study group comprised 286 of 486 consecutive patients aged 55-85 years who at 3 and 15 months after ischemic stroke completed a detailed medical, neurological and radiological stroke evaluation, structured measures of cognition (Mini Mental State Examination), emotion (Beck Depression Inventory, BDI), disability (Rankin scale), and assessment of dependent living. Suicidal ideas were present in 9.8% (n = 28) at 3 months' follow-up and in 14.0% (n = 40) at 15 months' follow-up. The patients with suicidal ideas were more depressed measured by BDI both at 3 (17.0 vs. 7.9, p < 0.001) and 15 months (20.5 vs. 8.5, p < 0.001) after stroke compared to the patients without suicidal ideas. Patients with suicidal ideas had more often a history of a stroke already before the index stroke (35 vs. 18.3%, p = 0.0154), right-sided stroke (60.0 vs. 41.9%, p = 0.0323), they were more disabled according to the Rankin scale (2.4 vs. 1.9; p = 0.0035) and more dependent in living (45.0 vs. 27.2%, p = 0.023) 15 months after stroke. An independent correlate of suicidal ideas 15 months after stroke was history of prior stroke (OR 2.4; 95% CI 1.14-4.97) in logistic regression analysis. The frequency of suicidal ideas increased with the time elapsed from stroke. Recurrent strokes, depressive symptoms, more disabling stroke and right-sided stroke correlated to suicidal ideas at 15 months after stroke. Early identification of these risk factors may lead to effective therapeutic intervention.     

基线血压水平与急性缺血性脑卒中早期降压治疗3个月结局的关系

目的 探讨基线血压水平与急性缺血性脑卒中早期降压治疗3 m结局关系.方法 收集2009年8月-2013年5月发病48 h内住院且经影像学确诊合并高血压的急性期缺血性脑卒中患者828例,根据入组时收缩压(Systolic Blood Pressure,SBP)水平分为140 ～ 160 mmHg组(n=276)、160～...     

External Validation of START nomogram to predict 3-Month unfavorable outcome in Chinese acute stroke patients

BackgroundRecently, the NIHSS STroke Scale score, Age, pre-stroke mRS score, onset-to-treatment Time (START nomogram) predicts 3-month functional outcome after intravenous thrombolysis in ischemic stroke patients. However, this model has not yet been an external validation. We aim to validate the performance of START nomogram.MethodsData were derived from the stroke center of the Nanjing First Hospital (China). Patients who lacked the necessary data to calculate the nomogram and missed 3-month modified Ranking scale scores were excluded. Modified Rankin Scale score more than 2 at 3-month was assessed as an unfavorable outcome. We used areas under the receiver operator characteristic curves (AUC-ROC) to quantify the prognostic value. Calibration was assessed by calibration plots and Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) goodness of fit test.ResultThe final cohort included 306 eligible patients. For 3-month unfavorable outcome, the AUC-ROC of the START nomogram was .766 (95%CI: .7013-.8304, P < .0001), suggesting good discrimination in the START nomogram. It also showed good calibration (HL goodness of fit test P = .1261) in the external validation sample.ConclusionThe START nomogram with good predictive performance is a reliable and simple clinical instrument to predict unfavorable outcome after acute stroke.     

Cognitive functions and depression as predictors of poor outcome 15 months after stroke

The prognostic predictors of poor outcome, as defined by death between 3 and 15 months and dependent living at 15 months, were examined in the Helsinki Stroke Aging Memory (SAM) study cohort. Death between 3 and 15 months was registered from the whole study group of 486 consecutive patients aged 55-85 years. Altogether 286 of the 486 patients went through a detailed follow-up examination both 3 and 15 months after stroke, including structured measures of emotion (Beck's Depression Inventory, BDI), cognition (Mini-Mental State Examination, MMSE), dementia assessment according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-III), and handicap (Rankin scale, RS). The only independent correlate of death between 3 and 15 months was dependent living at 3 months (OR 2.6, 95% CI 1.2-5.8), which also had the most powerful association with dependent living at 15 months (OR 5.8, 95% CI 2.6-13.1). Also, both worsening in cognition (change in MMSE, OR for each point of worsening 1.2, 95% CI 1.1-1.3) and worsening of depression (change in BDI, OR for each point of worsening 1.1, 95% CI 1.02-1.12), between 3 and 15 months follow-up, had an independent effect on dependent living 15 months after ischemic stroke. This challenges the care and rehabilitation of these items even at the stable period after stroke.     

High nonfasting triglyceride concentrations predict good outcome following acute ischaemic stroke

Objectives: A higher fasting triglyceride (TG) concentration has been associated with better functional outcomes after stroke. Recent observational studies have found that nonfasting TG concentrations predict incident stroke better than fasting concentrations. The aim of the study was to investigate the relationship between fasting and nonfasting serum TG concentrations versus 3-month functional activity and mortality among patients with acute ischaemic stroke.

Methods: This was a retrospective study based on prospectively collected data. Blood samples were taken from acute ischaemic stroke patients at the time of hospital presentation to measure nonfasting TG concentrations and on the following morning to measure fasting TG concentrations. Fasting and nonfasting serum TG concentrations were collapsed into their respective three categories. All participants were assessed at 3 months after stroke using the modified Rankin Scale.

Results: A total of 556 ischaemic stroke patients (67 ± 13 years; 57% male) were included in this study. Bivariately, the highest fasting and nonfasting TG category had more of a likelihood of good 3-month functional activity and less of a likelihood of being dead at 3 months compared to their respective lowest TG categories. The highest fasting TG (OR 2.93, 95% CI 1.67–5.14) and nonfasting TG (OR 2.66, 95% CI 1.51–4.67) categories had more of a likelihood of good 3-month functional activity compared to their respective lowest TG categories after adjustment for possible confounders.

Discussion: Higher fasting and nonfasting serum TG concentrations predicted good poststroke outcome independently of other prognostic factors.     

APOE does not predict poor outcome 1 year after ischemic stroke

OBJECTIVES: The apolipoprotein E gene (APOE) polymorphism may influence outcome in various forms of brain injury. The association between APOE genotype and long-term ischemic stroke (IS) outcome is controversial. We have examined the effect of stroke risk factors, clinical status at admission and APOE genotype on survival and dependency 1 year after IS. METHODS: We investigated 496 consecutively subjects with IS. Information concerning risk factors and clinical data were collected prospectively. Functional dependency was estimated with modified Rankin scale (mRS) and defined as a score of 3-5. Each patient was offered a I year follow-up evaluation. APOE genotyping was performed by the polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) method. Multivariate regression models were used to analyse predictors of death and poor outcome (death or dependency) within 1 year after the stroke. RESULTS: The distribution ofAPOE genotypes was 69% with genotype E3/E3, 18% with genotype F3/ E4, 12% with genotype E2/13 and 1% with genotype F2/14. At year 1, 169 patients (38%) had died and 78 of the survivors (28%) were functionally dependent. The best predictors of death at year 1 were: age over 70 years, congestive heart failure, atrial fibrillation, disturbed consciousness and severe hand paresis. Poor outcome was independently predicted by: age over 70 years, congestive heart failure, pre-stroke mRS> or =3, marked disturbance of consciousness and severe hand paresis. CONCLUSION: We did not find any impact of APOE genotype on mortality or poor outcome 1 year after IS.     

Impairment of functional integration of the default mode network correlates with cognitive outcome at three months after stroke

Resting‐state studies conducted with stroke patients are scarce. The study of brain activity and connectivity at rest provides a unique opportunity for the investigation of brain rewiring after stroke and plasticity changes. This study sought to identify dynamic changes in the functional organization of the default mode network (DMN) of stroke patients at three months after stroke. Eleven patients (eight male and three female; age range: 48–72) with right cortical and subcortical ischemic infarctions and 17 controls (eleven males and six females; age range: 57–69) were assessed by neurological and neuropsychological examinations and scanned with resting‐state functional magnetic ressonance imaging. First, we explored group differences in functional activity within the DMN by means of probabilistic independent component analysis followed by a dual regression approach. Second, we estimated functional connectivity between 11 DMN nodes both locally by means of seed‐based connectivity analysis, as well as globally by means of graph‐computation analysis. We found that patients had greater DMN activity in the left precuneus and the left anterior cingulate gyrus when compared with healthy controls (P < 0.05 family‐wise error corrected). Seed‐based connectivity analysis showed that stroke patients had significant impairment (P = 0.014; threshold = 2.00) in the connectivity between the following five DMN nodes: left superior frontal gyrus (lSFG) and posterior cingulate cortex (t = 2.01); left parahippocampal gyrus and right superior frontal gyrus (t = 2.11); left parahippocampal gyrus and lSFG (t = 2.39); right parietal and lSFG (t = 2.29). Finally, mean path length obtained from graph‐computation analysis showed positive correlations with semantic fluency test (r _s = 0.454; P = 0.023), phonetic fluency test (r _s = 0.523; P = 0.007) and the mini mental state examination (r _s = 0.528; P = 0.007). In conclusion, the ability to regulate activity of the DMN appears to be a central part of normal brain function in stroke patients. Our study expands the understanding of the changes occurring in the brain after stroke providing a new avenue for investigating lesion‐induced network plasticity. Hum Brain Mapp 36:577–590, 2015. © 2014 The Authors Human Brain Mapping Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.