93例转移性恶性黑色素瘤预后分析

目的:探讨转移性恶性黑色素瘤的预后因素。方法:回顾性分析93例经病理证实的转移性恶性黑色素瘤患者的临床资料及实验室、影像学检查结果。结果:93例转移性恶性黑色素瘤患者2年生存率为10.8%(10/93)。性别、体质状况、有无肝脏转移、转移部位数目、血清LDH水平、白蛋白水平以及转移灶是否切除对患者的2年生存率有显著影响;而不同年龄患者的2年生存率无统计学差异。结论:女性、体质状况较好、无肝脏转移、单一部位转移、LDH或白蛋白水平正常以及孤立转移病灶的手术切除是预后好的指标。     

Clinical model to predict survival in chemonaive patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer treated with third-generation chemotherapy regimens based on eastern cooperative oncology group data.

PURPOSE: (1) Identify clinical factors that can be used to predict survival in chemotherapy-naive patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with third-generation chemotherapy regimens, and (2) build a clinical model to predict survival in this patient population. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Using data from two randomized, phase III Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) trials (E5592/E1594), we performed univariate and multivariate stepwise Cox regression analyses to identify survival prognostic factors. We used 75% of randomly sampled data to build a prediction model for survival, and the remaining 25% of data to validate the model. RESULTS: From 1993 to 1999, 1,436 patients with stage IV or IIIB NSCLC with effusion were treated with platinum-based doublets (involving either paclitaxel, docetaxel, or gemcitabine). The response rate and median survival time were 20% and 8.2 months, respectively. One- and 2-year survivals were 33% and 11%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, six independent poor prognostic factors were identified: skin metastasis (hazard ratio [HR], 1.88), lower performance status (ECOG 1 or 2; HR, 1.46), loss of appetite (HR, 1.62), liver metastasis (HR, 1.32), >/= four metastatic sites (HR, 1.20), and no prior surgery (HR, 1.16). A nomogram using six pretreatment prognostic factors was built to predict 1- and 2-year survival. CONCLUSION: Six pretreatment factors can be used to predict survival in chemotherapy-naive NSCLC patients treated with standard chemotherapy. Using our prognostic nomogram, 1- and 2-year survival probability of NSCLC patients can be estimated before treatment. This prognostic model may help clinicians and patients in clinical decision making, as well as investigators in research planning.     

Serum prostate-specific antigen decline as a marker of clinical outcome in hormone-refractory prostate cancer patients: association with progression-free survival, pain end points, and survival.

PURPOSE: Validated end points are lacking for clinical trials in hormone-refractory prostate cancer (HRPC). Controversy remains regarding the utility of a posttreatment decline of prostate-specific antigen (PSA). The purpose of this study was to determine whether posttreatment declines in PSA were associated with clinical measures of improvement in a randomized phase III trial of suramin plus hydrocortisone versus placebo plus hydrocortisone. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 460 HRPC patients were randomized to receive suramin plus hydrocortisone (n = 229) or placebo plus hydrocortisone (n = 231). All patients had symptomatic, metastatic HRPC requiring opioid analgesics. Clinical end points evaluated included overall survival, objective progression-free survival (OPFS), and time to pain progression (TTPP). An evaluation of overall survival, OPFS, and TTPP as a function of a PSA decline of > or = 50%, lasting at least 28 days, was undertaken by using a landmark analysis at 6, 9, and 12 weeks. A multivariate analysis of the impact of PSA decline was performed on these clinical end points. RESULTS: A decline in PSA of > or = 50% lasting > or = 28 days was significantly associated with a prolonged median overall survival, OPFS, and TTPP, both in the entire group and the suramin plus hydrocortisone group at all three landmarks in both univariate and multivariate analysis. CONCLUSION: In this prospective, randomized trial of suramin plus hydrocortisone versus placebo plus hydrocortisone, a posttherapy decline in PSA of > or = 50%, lasting 28 days, was associated with prolonged median overall survival, improved median progression-free survival, and median TTPP. This analysis suggests that a posttreatment decline in PSA may be a reasonable intermediate end point in HRPC trials and calls into question the clinical utility of preclinical assays evaluating the in vitro effect of given agents on PSA secretion.     

A contemporary prognostic nomogram for men with hormone-refractory metastatic prostate cancer: a TAX327 study analysis.

PURPOSE: To develop a prognostic model and nomogram using baseline clinical variables to predict death among men with metastatic hormone-refractory prostate cancer (HRPC). EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: TAX327 was a clinical trial that randomized 1,006 men with metastatic HRPC to receive every three week or weekly docetaxel or mitoxantrone, each with prednisone. We developed a multivariate Cox model and nomogram to predict survival at 1, 2, and 5 years. RESULTS: Ten independent prognostic factors other than treatment group were identified in multivariate analysis: (a) presence of liver metastases [hazard ratio (HR), 1.66; P = 0.019], (b) number of metastatic sites (HR, 1.63 if > or =2 sites; P = 0.001), (c) clinically significant pain (HR, 1.48; P < 0.0001), (d) Karnofsky performance status (HR, 1.39 if < or =70; P = 0.016), (e) type of progression (HR, 1.37 for measurable disease progression and 1.29 for bone scan progression; P = 0.005 and 0.01, respectively), (f) pretreatment prostate-specific antigen (PSA) doubling time (HR, 1.19 if <55 days; P = 0.066), (g) PSA (HR, 1.17 per log rise; P < 0.0001), (h) tumor grade (HR, 1.18 for high grade; P = 0.069), (i) alkaline phosphatase (HR, 1.27 per log rise; P < 0.0001), and (j) hemoglobin (HR, 1.11 per unit decline; P = 0.004). A nomogram was developed based on this multivariate model and validated internally using bootstrap methods, with a concordance index of 0.69. CONCLUSIONS: This multivariate model identified several new independent prognostic factors in men with metastatic HRPC, including PSA doubling time, and led to the successful development of a clinically applicable nomogram. External prospective validation may support the wider use of this prognostic baseline model for men with HRPC treated with chemotherapy.     

A nomogram for individualized estimation of survival among patients with brain metastasis

Purpose: An estimated 24%–45% of patients with cancer develop brain metastases. Individualized estimation of survival for patients with brain metastasis could be useful for counseling patients on clinical outcomes and prognosis. Methods: De-identified data for 2367 patients with brain metastasis from 7 Radiation Therapy Oncology Group randomized trials were used to develop and internally validate a prognostic nomogram for estimation of survival among patients with brain metastasis. The prognostic accuracy for survival from 3 statistical approaches (Cox proportional hazards regression, recursive partitioning analysis [RPA], and random survival forests) was calculated using the concordance index. A nomogram for 12-month, 6-month, and median survival was generated using the most parsimonious model. Results: The majority of patients had lung cancer, controlled primary disease, no surgery, Karnofsky performance score (KPS) ≥ 70, and multiple brain metastases and were in RPA class II or had a Diagnosis-Specific Graded Prognostic Assessment (DS-GPA) score of 1.25–2.5. The overall median survival was 136 days (95% confidence interval, 126–144 days). We built the nomogram using the model that included primary site and histology, status of primary disease, metastatic spread, age, KPS, and number of brain lesions. The potential use of individualized survival estimation is demonstrated by showing the heterogeneous distribution of the individual 12-month survival in each RPA class or DS-GPA score group. Conclusion: Our nomogram provides individualized estimates of survival, compared with current RPA and DS-GPA group estimates. This tool could be useful for counseling patients with respect to clinical outcomes and prognosis.     

Development and validation of a nomogram to predict survival in incurable cachectic cancer patients on home parenteral nutrition

BackgroundThe use of home parenteral nutrition (HPN) in incurable cancer patients is extremely varied across different countries and institutions. In order to assess the clinical impact implied, we previously conducted a survey of incurable cancer patients receiving HPN, which shows that survival was markedly affected by Karnofsky performance status (KPS), tumor spread, Glasgow prognostic score (GPS) and tumor site. The aim of this study was to develop a nomogram incorporating the above factors for survival prediction.Patients and methodsWe gathered a series of 579 patients, all receiving HPN, which was randomly split into a training and a testing sample. Using Cox proportional hazard regression modeling, a nomogram was built in the training sample, in order to estimate median survival or survival probability at 3 and 6 months according to individual patient characteristics. The nomogram performance was then verified in the testing sample.ResultsIn the training sample, median survival was 3.2 (95% CI 3.0–3.7) months. GPS, KPS, tumor site and spread were confirmed to be significant prognostic factors. A significant interaction was also shown between the site and spread while weight loss (WL), adjusted for body mass index, failed to provide any substantial prognostic contribution. In the testing sample, nomogram performance was good in terms of calibration and discreet regarding discrimination.ConclusionWith the growing availability of new oncological treatments and their tendency to transform the trajectory of the advanced cancer into a chronic condition characterized by progressive WL and poor nutrients intake, an increasing number of patients are expected to receive HPN. In such a setting, tools for predicting the survival outcome may play a role toward personalized medicine and for investigating novel experimental therapies. Our proposed nomogram is a step forward in this direction but needs to be made stronger in order to definitely have clinical utility.     

Pretreatment prognostic factors in patients with early-stage (I/II) non-small-cell lung cancer treated with hyperfractionated radiation therapy alone

PURPOSE: To investigate influence of various pretreatment prognostic factors in patients with early stage (I/II) non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with hyperfractionated radiation therapy alone. PATIENTS AND METHODS: One hundred and sixteen patients were treated with tumor doses of 69.6 Gy, 1.2-Gy, twice-daily fractionation. There were 49 patients with Stage I and 67 patients with Stage II. Eighty patients had Karnofsky performance status (KPS) 90-100 and 95 patients had <5% weight loss. Peripheral tumors were observed in 57 patients. Squamous histology was observed in 70 patients and the majority of patients had concomitant disease (n=72). RESULTS: The median survival time for all patients was 29 months; 5-year survival was 29%. The median time to local progression and the distant metastasis were not achieved, whereas 5-year local progression-free and distant metastasis-free survivals were 50% and 72%, respectively. Multivariate analysis identified KPS, weight loss, location, histology, and the reason for not undergoing surgery as prognostic factors for survival. KPS, location, and histology influenced local progression-free survival, whereas only KPS and weight loss influenced distant metastasis-free survival. CONCLUSIONS: This retrospective analysis identified KPS and weight loss as the most important prognostic factors of outcome in patients with early-stage NSCLC treated with hyperfractionation radiation therapy.     

螺旋断层放疗治疗转移性非小细胞肺癌的预后分析

目的 探讨转移性非小细胞肺癌（NSCLC）患者接受螺旋断层放疗后的预后情况及其影响因素。方法 对本院2011年6月至2013年2月采用螺旋断层放疗技术治疗的51例转移性NSCLC患者的临床资料进行回顾性分析。所有靶区的中位放疗剂量为42.5 Gy（30～62 Gy）,单次放疗的中位剂量2 Gy（1.8～3 Gy）。应用Kaplan-Meier法计算生存率,Log-rank检验比较组间的生存差异,Cox风险比例回归模型分析影响预后的各种因素。结果 所有患者随访时间均超过1年。51例转移性NSCLC患者的中位生存时间为19.3个月,1年生存率为64.7％。单因素分析显示,KPS评分高、病理类型为腺癌、放疗前接受过化疗、无肝转移和所有病灶计划靶区体积（PTV）≤1300 cm³是NSCLC患者预后良好的影响因素（P＜0.05）;Cox多因素分析显示KPS评分、放疗前是否化疗和所有病灶PTV是转移性NSCLC患者采用螺旋断层放疗的独立预后因素。结论 转移性NSCLC采用螺旋断层放疗对延长患者的生存时间及改善预后可能有重要意义。     

Metastatic renal carcinoma comprehensive prognostic system

The purpose of the study was to identify a comprehensive prognostic system of pretreatment clinical parameters in 425 patients (pts) with metastatic renal-cell carcinoma treated with different subcutaneous (s.c.) recombinant cytokine-based home therapies in consecutive trials. Treatment consisted of (A) s.c. interferon-alpha 2a (INF-alpha), s.c. interleukin-2 (IL-2) (n=102 pts), (B) s.c. IFN-alpha 2a, s.c. IL-2, and i.v. 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) (n=235 pts) or (C) s.c. IFN-alpha 2a, s.c. IL-2, and i.v. 5-FU combined with p.o. 13-cis-retinoic acid (13cRA) (n=88 pts). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, log-rank statistics, and Cox regression analysis were employed to identify risk factors and to create a multiple risk factor model. The following pretreatment risk factors were identified by univariate analysis: (1) three and more metastatic sites, (2) presence of liver, lymph node or bone metastases, (3) neutrophil count > or = 6500 cells microl(-1), (4) serum lactate dehydrogenase level (LDH) > or = 220 U l(-1), and (5) serum C-reactive protein level (CRP) > or = 11 mg l(-1). Cox regression analysis with forward stepwise variable selection identified neutrophil count as the major prognostic factor (hazard ratio=1.9, P<0.001), while serum levels of LDH and CRP, time between diagnosis of tumour and onset of metastatic disease, number of metastatic sites, and bone metastases were significant but somewhat less important prognostic variables within the multiple risk factor model (hazard ratio < or = 1.5). Patients were assigned to one of the three risk groups according to cumulative risk defined as the sum of simplified risk s.c.ores for six pretreatment variables. Low-, intermediate-, and high-risk patients achieved a median overall survival of 32+ months (95% CI 24, 43; 5-year survival of 27%), 18+ months (95% CI 15, 20; 5-year survival of 11%), and 8+ months (95% CI 6, 10; 5-year survival of 5%), respectively. These prognostic categories are helpful both in individual patient care and in the assessment of patients entering prospective clinical trials.     

Long-term survival in metastatic transitional-cell carcinoma and prognostic factors predicting outcome of therapy.

PURPOSE: The variation in reported survival of patients with metastatic transitional-cell carcinoma (TCC) treated with systemic chemotherapy may be a consequence of pretreatment patient characteristics. We hypothesized that a prognostic factor-based model of survival among patients treated with methotrexate, vinblastine, doxorubicin, and cisplatin chemotherapy could account for such differences and help guide clinical trial design and interpretation. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A database of 203 patients with unresectable or metastatic TCC was retrospectively subjected to a multivariate regression analysis to determine which patient characteristics had independent prognostic significance for survival. Patients were assigned to three risk categories depending on the number of unfavorable characteristics. Patient selection in phase II studies was addressed by developing a table of expected median survival for patient cohorts that had varying proportions of patients from the three risk categories. RESULTS: Two factors had independent prognosis: Karnofsky performance status (KPS) less than 80% and visceral (lung, liver, or bone) metastasis. Median survival times for patients who had zero, one, or two risk factors were 33, 13.4, and 9.3 months, respectively (P =.0001). The median survival time of patient cohorts could vary from 9 to 26 months simply by altering the proportion of patients from different risk categories. CONCLUSION: The presence of baseline KPS less than 80% or visceral metastasis has an impact on survival. Reporting the proportion of patients with zero, one, and two risk factors will facilitate understanding of the relevance of the median survival in phase II trials. Phase III trials should stratify patients according to the number of risk factors to avoid imbalance in treatment arms.     

High-grade non-Hodgkin's lymphoma treated in northern Norway--treatment, outcome, and prognostic factors

In an unselected group of patients with high-grade non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (HG-NHL) treated at our institution during a 10-year period (1986-1995), we studied treatment outcome and influence of possible prognostic factors. 187 HG-NHL patients were analysed retrospectively with regard to personal, treatment and disease-specific characteristics. Median age was 65 years and the male : female ratio was 1.2 : 1. Over a median follow-up of 57 months the overall response rate was 87% (complete response 72%, partial response 15%). The 2- and 5-year cumulative disease-specific survival rates were 64±4% (mean±SEM) and 48±5%, respectively. In a univariate analysis, the following variables were associated with prognosis in terms of survival: Patient age, clinical stage, performance status, bone-marrow infiltration, haemoglobin, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and serum albumin. In multivariate analyses, patient age, performance status, LDH, and haemoglobin came out as independent prognostic factors for survival.     

Salvage cryotherapy for recurrent prostate cancer after radiotherapy: variables affecting patient outcome.

PURPOSE: To determine the long-term disease-specific survival (DSS) and disease-free survival (DFS) rates after salvage cryotherapy for locally recurrent adenocarcinoma of the prostate and to identify pretreatment factors that have an impact on DSS and DFS. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Between July 1992 and January 1995, 131 patients who had received definitive radiation therapy (XRT) underwent salvage cryotherapy for locally recurrent adenocarcinoma of the prostate. Cryotherapy failure was defined as an increasing postcryotherapy prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level of > or = 2 ng/mL above the postcryotherapy nadir, a positive prostate biopsy, or radiographic evidence of metastatic disease. Clinical variables were studied to determine whether there was an association with the DSS and DFS. RESULTS: The median follow-up was 4.8 years. The 5-year DSS rates were 87% for patients with a precryotherapy Gleason score < or = 8 and 63% for those with Gleason scores of 9 and 10 (P =.012). The 5-year DFS rates were 57% for patients with a precryotherapy PSA level of < or = 10 ng/mL and 23% for those with a PSA level greater than 10 ng/mL (P =.0004). The 5-year DSS rates for patients with a pre-XRT clinical stage of T1 to T2 and those with a clinical stage of T3 to T4 were 94% and 72%, respectively (P =.0041). The 5-year DFS rates for these groups were 90% and 69%, respectively (P =.0057). CONCLUSION: Androgen-independent local recurrences, Gleason score, and pre-XRT clinical stage were important factors that had an impact on DSS and DFS. The subset of patients cured by salvage cryotherapy seems to be small, and patient selection is important.     

Pretreatment Neutrophil‐to‐Lymphocyte Ratio in Metastatic Castration‐Resistant Prostate Cancer Patients Treated With Ketoconazole: Association with Outcome and Predictive Nomogram

Background.

The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), an inflammation marker, is prognostic in several cancers. We assessed the association between the pretreatment NLR and outcome of patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) treated with the CYP17 inhibitor ketoconazole.

Methods.

This was an international, retrospective study of 156 mCRPC patients treated with ketoconazole. The independent effect of the pretreatment NLR and factors associated with treatment outcome were determined by multivariate analysis.

Results.

Seventy-eight patients (50%) had a ≥50% decline in prostate-specific antigen (PSA). The median progression-free survival (PFS) time was 8 months. Excluded from the analysis were 23 patients without available data on their NLR and those with a recent health event or treatment associated with a blood count change. Sixty-two patients (47%) had a pretreatment NLR >3. Risk factors associated with the PFS outcome were a pretreatment NLR >3 and PSA doubling time (PSADT) <3 months and a prior response to a gonadotropin-releasing hormone agonist of <24 months or to an antiandrogen of <6 months. The number of risk factors was used to form a predictive nomogram by patient categorization into favorable (zero or one factor), intermediate (two factors), and poor (three or four factors) risk groups.

Conclusions.

In mCRPC patients treated with ketoconazole, the pretreatment NLR and PSADT, and prior response to androgen-deprivation therapy, may be associated with the PFS time and used to form a risk stratification predictive nomogram.     

First-year PSA kinetics and minima after prostate cancer radiotherapy are predictive of overall survival

PURPOSE: We analyzed whether first-year prostate-specific antigen (PSA) kinetics and minima are predictive of overall survival (OS). METHODS AND MATERIALS: The data set contained 1,174 patients treated with external beam radiotherapy (RT) from 1987 to 2001. The relative rate of change (lambda) in post-RT PSA values during the first year (13.5 months) was computed using regression analysis of ln(PSA) vs. time. We also computed the PSA minimum (mPSA) reached during the same period. Recursive partitioning analysis was used to identify the relevant cutpoints for the factors being investigated for its association with survival: age, pretreatment PSA, radiation dose, relative rate of change in PSA post-RT, and 1-year PSA minimum. For each of the other factors stage, Gleason score and risk group, all possible cutpoints were considered in the multivariate analyses. Significant factors were considered in the multivariate analyses to identify independent predictors for overall survival. RESULTS: The median value of lambda was -1.0 years(-1) (range, -11.0-5.1 years(-1)). The 1-year minimum had a median of 0.8 ng/mL (range, 0.01-30.9 ng/mL). Recursive partitioning analysis and Cox proportional hazards analyses identified the following pretreatment or treatment factors adversely related to OS: age, Gleason score, stage, and dose. First-year mPSA > or = 4 ng/mL and lambda > 0 were post-RT independent prognostic factors for worse OS. CONCLUSION: First-year post-RT PSA kinetics and minima are early response parameters predictive of overall survival for prostate cancer patients. These factors may be useful in selecting patients for early salvage therapy.     

转移性小肠神经内分泌肿瘤预后列线图的建立

目的:分析转移性小肠神经内分泌肿瘤（small intestinal neuroendocrine neoplasms,SI-NENs）的预后相关因素，并建立有效的预测模型。方法:收集美国国家癌症研究所监测、流行病学和最终结果(SEER)数据库中 2010年至2015年491例转移性SI-NENs患者的资料。基于Cox回归模型筛选的独立危险因素建立列线图,并评估该模型的区分度及校准度。结果:患者的中位生存时间为35个月，1年、3年、5年特异生存率分别为96.11%、85.89%、75.87%。Cox回归分析显示年龄、分化程度、组织学类型、手术是患者预后的独立危险因素。列线图一致性指数(C-index) 为0.730（95%CI:0.669～0.791）,且该模型中1年、3年、5年的受试者工作曲线下面积（AUC）分别为0.723、0.699、0.659。1年、3年、5年的校准曲线图亦显示出良好的一致性。结论:年轻、分化程度高、组织学类型为类癌、经历手术的转移性SI-NENs预后较好。列线图的预测效果较好。     

The addition of interleukin-6 soluble receptor and transforming growth factor beta1 improves a preoperative nomogram for predicting biochemical progression in patients with clinically localized prostate cancer.

PURPOSE: Several preoperative prostate cancer nomograms have been developed that predict risk of progression using pretreatment prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level, clinical stage, and biopsy Gleason grade. We describe the development and performance of a new nomogram. The nomogram adds new markers to the standard clinical predictors that reflect the biologic behavior of prostate cancer: pretreatment plasma levels of interleukin-6 soluble receptor (IL6SR) and transforming growth factor beta1 (TGF-beta1). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Between November 7, 1994 and December 22, 1997, 714 patients with stage cT1c to cT3a prostate cancer and no prior therapy were treated with radical prostatectomy at the Methodist Hospital, Houston TX. Plasma levels of IL6SR and TGF-beta1 were measured in banked preoperative plasma. With these data, a nomogram was developed to predict the probability of PSA progression within 5 years of surgery. The nomogram was validated with bootstrapping to assess its discrimination and calibration performance. RESULTS: In the multivariable Cox model, PSA (P =.004), IL6SR (P <.001), TGF-beta1 (P <.001), primary Gleason grade (P <.002), and secondary Gleason grade (P =.029) were associated with PSA progression, whereas clinical stage (P =.696) was not. The nomogram seemed to be well calibrated and had a bootstrap-corrected area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ie, concordance index) of 0.83. For comparison, a nomogram that omitted IL6SR and TGF-beta1 achieved a concordance index of only 0.75. CONCLUSION: We found that pretreatment plasma levels of IL6SR and TGF-beta1 improved the ability to predict biochemical progression by a prognostically substantial margin. A nomogram including the pretreatment levels of these molecular markers, along with standard clinical markers, has been developed and internally validated.     

初治转移鼻咽癌疗后预后评分模型建立及分层治疗研究

目的 建立初治转移鼻咽癌疗后预后评分模型,探讨其分层治疗的可行性。 方法 2002—2010年共263例符合入组条件的初治鼻咽癌转移患者纳入研究。原发灶主要包括常规放疗、3DCRT、IMRT等,照射范围包括鼻咽病灶+颈部淋巴引流区。骨转移病灶的处理主要是常规外放疗,肝、肺等主要选择手术切除、放疗及射频消融处理等。大部分患者一线治疗均采用以顺铂为基础的联合化疗方案。将患者一般特点、肿瘤状态以及治疗相关因素等纳入多因素分析,根据预后因素n值(其中HR=eⁿ)建立预后模型。 结果 影响患者OS因素包括KPS≤70(P=0.00)、联合器官转移(P=0.00)、合并肝转移(P=0.00)、转移数目≥2个(P=0.00)、LDH>245 IU/I (P=0.00)、化疗周期数1~3个(P=0.00)、转移灶疗效为SD或PD (P=0.00)、原发灶未接受放疗(P=0.01)。根据患者预后评分分为低危组(0~1.5分)、中危组(2.0~6.5分)、高危组(≥7.0分),5年OS率分别为59.0%、25.1%、0(P=0.00)。 结论 基于患者KPS、血清LDH水平及联合脏器转移、合并肝转移、转移数目建立的预后评分模型能有效预测患者生存,积极的治疗方式包括≥4个周期化疗和原发灶放疗等能提高低、中危组患者生存时间;而对高危组患者原发灶放疗不能带来生存获益,以姑息性化疗为主。     

Prognostic factors in high and intermediate grade non-Hodgkin's lymphoma

An analysis of prognostic factors has been performed on 260 patients with high and intermediate grade non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) treated over an 11-year period between 1975 and 1986. The overall 5-year survival rate was 50% with a median follow-up of 72 months. Over 20 clinical, radiological and laboratory parameters have been studied, including variables reported to be important indicators of prognosis in previous series, and these variables have been subjected to univariate and multivariate analysis. Attainment of complete remission (CR) was the most important predictor of overall survival, low serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), limited stage disease and a high serum albumin were also independently associated with prolonged survival in multivariate analysis. After removing remission status from the model, Ann Arbor clinical stage became the most significant pre-treatment prognostic indicator. Sixty-five per cent of patients achieved CR, and a discriminant analysis showed that failure to attain CR was associated with advanced stage disease, constitutional symptoms, increasing patient age, a low serum albumin and the presence of bulk disease. Advanced clinical stage and an elevated serum LDH predicted independently for a poor relapse-free survival, and reduced overall survival following CR. There was no significant correlation between histological subtype in the Kiel classification and prognosis. This study confirms the prognostic significance of remission status and Ann Arbor clinical stage, and illustrates additional factors including serum levels of albumin and LDH, which serve to enhance the pre-treatment prognostic evaluation of patients with unfavourable histology NHL.     

Improvement in relapse-free survival throughout the PSA era in patients with localized prostate cancer treated with definitive radiotherapy: year of treatment an independent predictor of outcome

PURPOSE: In patients treated with radical prostatectomy in the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) era, it has been demonstrated that the year of treatment in the PSA era is associated with better pathologic parameters and outcomes, independently of other well-recognized parameters such as clinical stage, pretreatment PSA level, or Gleason score. The purpose of the present study was to study a similar phenomenon with definitive radiotherapy (RT). METHODS AND MATERIALS: The inclusion criteria were as follows: clinical Stage T1-T2, available pretreatment PSA level and biopsy Gleason score, treatment delivered before January 2000 with standard fractionation external beam radiotherapy to at least 70 Gy, no adjuvant androgen deprivation (AD), all neoadjuvant AD limited to < or =6 months, and a minimum of 3 years of PSA follow-up. A total of 467 cases treated between January 1986 and December 1999 were included. Short-course AD in the adjuvant or neoadjuvant setting for < or =6 months was given in 124 cases (27%). The median radiation dose was 74 Gy (range 70.0-78.0). A conformal technique was used in 293 cases (63%). The median follow-up was 62 months (range 37-189). A total of 4931 follow-up PSA levels were available for analysis (average 11 per patient). A multivariate analysis for factors affecting biochemical relapse-free survival rates using the proportional hazards model was performed for all cases using the following variables: age (continuous variable), race (black vs. white), clinical T stage (T1-T2a vs. T2b-T2c), pretreatment PSA (continuous variable), biopsy Gleason score (continuous variable), use of AD (yes vs. no), radiation dose (continuous variable), and year of treatment (continuous variable: 1986-1999). RESULTS: The projected 8-year biochemical relapse-free survival rate was 74%. The projected 5-year biochemical relapse-free survival rate for the 143 patients treated in the 1986-1995 period was 58% vs. 82% for the 324 patients treated in the 1996-1999 period (p <0.001). The difference was attributable to a multitude of factors (earlier stage cancer, higher radiation doses, shorter follow-up). To study the confounding effects of these factors on the year of therapy, a multivariate analysis was performed. The multivariate analysis revealed the initial PSA level (p <0.001), Gleason score (p <0.001), RT dose (p = 0.045), and year of treatment (p <0.001) to be independent predictors of outcome. Age (p = 0.41), race (p = 0.14), T stage (p = 0.10), and use of AD (p = 0.58) were not. CONCLUSION: When controlling for tumor, treatment, and follow-up parameters, the year in which RT was performed was still an independent predictor of outcome, consistent with observations made for radical prostatectomy patients. This indicates a more favorable presentation of localized prostate in current years probably related to a combination of factors such as screening and increased patient awareness leading to earlier diagnosis. Outcome predictions should be based on contemporaneous series.     

Pretreatment nomogram for prostate-specific antigen recurrence after radical prostatectomy or external-beam radiation therapy for clinically localized prostate cancer.

PURPOSE: To present nomograms providing estimates of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) failure-free survival after radical prostatectomy (RP) or external-beam radiation therapy (RT) for men diagnosed during the PSA era with clinically localized disease. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A Cox regression multivariable analysis was used to determine the prognostic significance of the pretreatment PSA level, 1992 American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) clinical stage, and biopsy Gleason score in predicting the time to posttherapy PSA failure in 1,654 men with T1c,2 prostate cancer managed with either RP or RT. RESULTS: Pretherapy PSA, AJCC clinical stage, and biopsy Gleason score were independent predictors (P < .0001) of time to posttherapy PSA failure in patients managed with either RP or RT. Two-year PSA failure rates derived from the Cox regression model and bootstrap estimates of the 95% confidence intervals are presented in the format of a nomogram stratified by the pretreatment PSA, AJCC clinical stage, biopsy Gleason score, and local treatment modality. CONCLUSION: Men at high risk (> 50%) for early (< or = 2 years) PSA failure could be identified on the basis of the type of local therapy received and the clinical information obtained as part of the routine work-up for localized prostate cancer. Selection of these men for trials evaluating adjuvant systemic and improved local therapies may be justified.