Trends in stroke mortality in Greater London and south east England--evidence for a cohort effect?

OBJECTIVE AND SETTING: To examine time trends in stroke mortality in Greater London compared with the surrounding South East Region of England. DESIGN: Age-cohort analysis based on routine mortality data. SUBJECTS: Resident population aged 45 years or more. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Age specific stroke mortality rates, 1951-92. MAIN RESULTS: In 1951, stroke mortality was lower in Greater London than the surrounding South East Region in all age bands over 45. It has been declining in both areas but the rate of decline has been significantly slower in Greater London (p < 0.0001). The differences in rates of decline were such that stroke mortality is now higher in Greater London for people under 75. The crossover of age specific stroke mortality rates occurred at different periods in different age bands and is consistent with a cohort effect, with similar rates in Greater London and the surrounding south east for men and women born around 1916-21. This cohort effect does not appear to be consistent with past maternal and neonatal mortality rates in these areas, nor, within the limitations of the data, with the ethnic composition of cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: There seems to be a cohort effect on stroke mortality which is not explained by past maternal and neonatal mortality. If the decline in stroke mortality continues at its current rate, the Health of the Nation stroke target is unlikely to be achieved in Greater London.     

Socioeconomic deprivation,urban-rural location and alcohol-related mortality in England and Wales

Background  

Many causes of death are directly attributable to the toxic effects of alcohol and deaths from these causes are increasing in the United Kingdom. The aim of this study was to investigate variation in alcohol-related mortality in relation to socioeconomic deprivation, urban-rural location and age within a national context.     

Assaults in south east London.

A survey was performed of 425 consecutive patients attending Lewisham Hospital as a result of deliberate physical violence. Eighty-two per cent attended 'out of hours', and in at least 50% alcohol was a contributing factor. Less than half the incidents were reported to the police. Fifteen per cent of the attacks were due to knives and accounted for 47% of the admissions and 90% of the serious injuries. The results support the view that it is becoming common for youths to be armed. Assault victims, particularly those with knife wounds place a considerable burden on hospital resources. Accident and Emergency departments are ideal places to monitor the epidemiology of assaults.     

Excess mortality in England and Wales, and in Greater London, during the 1995 heatwave

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact on mortality of the heatwave in England and Wales during July and August 1995 and to describe any difference in mortality impact between the Greater London urban population and the national population. DESIGN: Analysis of variation in daily mortality in England and Wales and in Greater London during a five day heatwave in July and August 1995, by age, sex, and cause. SETTING: England and Wales, and Greater London. MAIN RESULTS: An estimated 619 extra deaths (8.9% increase, approximate 95% confidence interval 6.4, 11.3%) were observed during this heatwave in England and Wales, relative to the expected number of deaths based on the 31-day moving average for that period. Excess deaths were apparent in all age groups, most noticeably in women and for deaths from respiratory and cerebrovascular disease. Using published daily mortality risk coefficients for air pollutants in London, it was estimated that up to 62% of the excess mortality in England and Wales during the heatwave may be attributable to concurrent increases in air pollution. In Greater London itself, where daytime temperatures were higher (and with lesser falls at night), mortality increased by 16.1% during the heatwave. Using the same risk coefficients to estimate the excess mortality apparently attributable to air pollution, more than 60% of the total excess in London was apparently attributable to the effects of heat. CONCLUSION: Analysis of this episode shows that exceptionally high temperatures in England and Wales, though rare, do cause increases in daily mortality.

 

     

Socioeconomic deprivation and ethnicity are both important for anti-tobacco health promotion.

The aim of the study was to explore the relative importance of socioeconomic deprivation and ethnicity for smoking in New Zealand in order to assist with the design and evaluation of health promotion programs. Smoking data were derived from the 1996 census. Socioeconomic deprivation was measured using the NZDep96 index of socioeconomic deprivation for small areas, which combines nine variables from the 1996 census. There was a strong and consistent relationship between area-level socioeconomic deprivation and the proportion of regular smokers. In all age-groups, at each level of deprivation, Ma?ri smoked more than the "European and Other" ethnic group. The findings of this study support the view that effective tobacco control activities should address ethnic differences in smoking behavior as well as socioeconomic deprivation, and must operate at the levels of populations, places and environments, as well as individuals.     

Occupational associations of testicular cancer in south east England.

The relation of occupation to the risk of testicular cancer was investigated in a case-control study using data from the files of the South Thames Cancer Registry. Risks by age and histology subdivisions of the tumour were investigated since there is epidemiological evidence of differences in aetiology between these subdivisions but no previous systematic study of occupational risks by age and histology. Analyses were conducted comparing 1605 cases of testicular cancer incident in the region during 1958-77 with 7187 controls selected from other cancers incident in men in the region during the same period. The greatest risks of testicular cancer overall were for administrators and managers, sales workers, professional and allied workers, electrical workers, and clerical workers; these occupations were generally also at high risk of subdivisions of the tumour age and histology. Risk of testicular cancer overall and in each age and histology subgroup was greater in men of high than of low occupation based social class. Occupations with high risk of testicular cancer for their social class are of particular interest for further investigation of possible occupational risk factors; occupations with this characteristic for testicular cancer overall or in subdivisions in the present and some previous data are farmers, electrical workers, and paper and printing workers.     

The nature of mycobacterial disease in south east England, 1977-84.

The nature and incidence of bacteriologically confirmed mycobacterial disease in south east England over the eight year period 1977-84 has been determined by a study of cultures received by the PHLS Regional Centre for Tuberculosis Bacteriology at Dulwich. The number of cases of tuberculosis in the ethnic European population has shown a decline, more so among males than females, but there has not been a significant decline in cases among ethnic Asians. Most tuberculosis is due to the classical human tubercle bacillus but cases due to the Asian human type, the bovine type (M. bovis), and the African types (M. africanum) also occur. The number of cases of disease due to 'atypical' mycobacteria has doubled over the eight year period, and these now account for about 5% of bacteriologically diagnosed mycobacterial disease in this region. The continuing role of reference facilities for the surveillance of tuberculosis and the diagnosis and management of the growing numbers of other mycobacterial infections is stressed.     

Early increases in ischaemic heart disease mortality dissociated from and later changes associated with respiratory mortality after cold weather in south east England.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To identify the time courses and magnitude of ischaemic heart (IHD), respiratory (RES), and all cause mortality associated with common 20-30 day patterns of cold weather in order to assess links between cold exposure and mortality. DESIGN: Daily temperatures and daily mortality on successive days before and after a reference day were regressed on the temperature of the reference day using high pass filtered data in which changes with a cycle length < 80 days were unaffected (< 2%), but slower cyclical changes and trends were partly or completely suppressed. This provided the short term patterns of both temperature and mortality associated with a one day displacement of temperature. The results were compared with simple regressions of unfiltered mortality on temperature at successive delays. STUDY POPULATION AND SETTING: Population of south east England, including London, over 50 years of age from 1976-92. MAIN RESULTS: Colder than average days in the linear range 15 to 0 degrees C were associated with a "run up" of cold weather for 10-15 days beforehand and a "run down" for 10-15 days afterwards. The increases in deaths were maximal at 3 days after the peak in cold for IHD, at 12 days for RES, and at 3 days for all cause mortality. The increase lasted approximately 40 days after the peak in cold. RES deaths were significantly delayed compared with IHD deaths. Excess deaths per million associated with these short term temperature displacements were 7.3 for IHD, 5.8 for RES, and 24.7 for all cause, per one day fall of 1 degree C. These were greater by 52% for IHD, 17% for RES, and 37% for all cause mortality than the overall increases in daily mortality per degree C fall, at optimal delays, indicated by regressions using unfiltered data. Similar analyses of data at 0 to -6.7 degrees C showed an immediate rise in IHD mortality after cold, followed by a fall in both IHD and RES mortality rates which peaked 17 and 20 days respectively after a peak in cold. CONCLUSION: Twenty to 30 day patterns of cold weather below 15 degrees C were followed:(1) rapidly by IHD deaths, consistent with known thrombogenic and reflex consequences of personal cold exposure; and (2) by delayed increases in RES and associated IHD deaths in the range 0 to 15 degrees C, which were reversed for a few degrees below 0 degree C, and were probably multifactorial in cause. These patterns provide evidence that personal exposure to cold has a large role in the excess mortality of winter.     

Occupational associations of testicular cancer in south east England

The relation of occupation to the risk of testicular cancer was investigated in a case-control study using data from the files of the South Thames Cancer Registry. Risks by age and histology subdivisions of the tumour were investigated since there is epidemiological evidence of differences in aetiology between these subdivisions but no previous systematic study of occupational risks by age and histology. Analyses were conducted comparing 1605 cases of testicular cancer incident in the region during 1958-77 with 7187 controls selected from other cancers incident in men in the region during the same period. The greatest risks of testicular cancer overall were for administrators and managers, sales workers, professional and allied workers, electrical workers, and clerical workers; these occupations were generally also at high risk of subdivisions of the tumour age and histology. Risk of testicular cancer overall and in each age and histology subgroup was greater in men of high than of low occupation based social class. Occupations with high risk of testicular cancer for their social class are of particular interest for further investigation of possible occupational risk factors; occupations with this characteristic for testicular cancer overall or in subdivisions in the present and some previous data are farmers, electrical workers, and paper and printing workers.     

Socioeconomic indicators and ethnicity as determinants of regional mortality rates in Slovakia

Objectives:  Regional differences in mortality might reflect socioeconomic and ethnic differences between regions. The present study examines the relationship between education, unemployment, income, Roma population and regional mortality in the Slovak Republic. Methods:  Separately for males and females, data on standardised mortality in the Slovak population aged 20–64 years in the year 2002 were calculated for each of the 79 districts. Similarly the proportions of respondents with tertiary education, unemployed status, Roma ethnicity and income data were calculated per district. A linear regression model was used to analyse the data. Results:  Socioeconomic differences in regional mortality were found among males, but not among females. While education and unemployment rate significantly contributed to mortality differences between regions, income and the proportion of Roma population did not. The model explained 32.9% of the variance in standardised mortality rate among districts for males and 7.6% for females. Conclusion:  Low education and high unemployment rate seems to be an indicator of regions with high mortality of male and therefore should be targeted by policy measures aimed at decreasing mortality in productive age. Submitted: 21 November 2007; revised: 29 July 2008; accepted: 27 November 2008     

Daily mortality and environment in English conurbations. Air pollution, low temperature, and influenza in Greater London.

With the decline in concentrations of suspended particulate pollution in Greater London the association seen in the 1950s and early 1960s between daily mortality and air pollution in the conurbation is no longer apparent. Associations between unusually cold weather and short-term increases in mortality have been noted; there appears to be a tendency for influenza epidemics to follow cold spells.     

Suicide mortality in Greater London: changes during the past 25 years.

Suicide mortality in the area now administered by the Greater London Council was assessed for three five-year periods 1949-1953, 1959-63, and 1969-73. For each of the periods the standard mortality ratio (SMR) for suicide in various boroughs was calculated for men and women separately. The boroughs with high SMRs for men were constant. There was a pronounced change in the geographical distribution of high mortality among women. These findings support the hypothesis that the determinants of suicide differ between the sexes.     

Case-control study of breast cancer in south east England: nutritional factors

OBJECTIVES: To explore dietary risk factors, in particular fat intake, for breast cancer, using an approach to reduce recall bias of subjects and so provide a more reliable estimate of dietary intake than previous similar studies. DESIGN: A case-control study of women aged 50-65 years attending the breast assessment clinics of the breast screening programme in Southampton and Portsmouth, southern England. Data were analysed for all women requiring further clinical procedures; all women recalled to have an early rescreen; and a random sample of women found to be normal and referred for a routine rescreening appointment (standard recall). MEASUREMENTS: An interview obtained information on various lifestyle characteristics including smoking and alcohol intake, weight, waist, and hip measurements were also taken at the clinic. Women were given a detailed questionnaire on food intake to complete at home and return by post. RESULTS: 1577 women were included in the study: 220 with breast cancer (cases); 179 with benign breast disease; 353 early rescreen and 825 given a standard recall appointment. There were few differences in nutritional intake between the four groups. Logistic regression analyses were carried out comparing the dietary intake of cases with that of each control group adjusting for important demographic and reproductive factors. Results for the case and standard recall comparison are presented. The only non-calorific nutrient to reach significance was iron, which was negatively associated with risk (p = 0.03). For fat intake, the odds decreased with increasing polyunsaturated fat (p = 0.15), showed no trend with monounsaturated fat (p = 0.37) and increased (p = 0.10) with increasing saturated fat. No pattern was clear for the other calorie providing nutrients. CONCLUSIONS: In line with recent cohort studies, this study has shown no evidence to support the hypothesis that dietary fat is an important contributor to breast cancer rates. Biases should have been reduced by studying subjects from the screening programme who were at an early stage of disease.

 

     

Is stroke mortality on the decline in England?

This paper challenges the assumption that mortality from stroke will remain constant or decline over the next few decades. A decline in stroke mortality could be brought about by changes in factors acting close to the time of death (period effect) or by risk factors determined by the generation into which a person is born (cohort effect). Age-specific death rates for stroke (1931-1985) in England and Wales were analyzed to estimate the influence of these different effects. There were significant effects for age, period, and cohort on mortality from stroke with significantly different age and period effects in each sex. The effect of age was linear, with an increasing mortality with age in both sexes. Cohort analysis demonstrated a deceleration away from the previous trend in the mortality rates associated with birth cohorts born after 1880, followed by an acceleration in the trend of mortality rates in cohorts born after 1910. These relative increases in risk for cohorts born after 1910 were offset by a deceleration in mortality associated with periods from around 1951-1954. Since cohort effects are likely to be associated with a lifetime increase in risk of stroke mortality, it is difficult to predict the extent of any long-term fall in stroke incidence.     

Hepatitis B and delta virus infection among "at risk" populations in south east London.

STUDY OBJECTIVE--The hepatitis delta virus (HDV) contributes significantly to the morbidity and mortality of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, which is particularly prevalent among intravenous drug users and male homosexuals. A recent report has indicated that HDV first appeared in the South East London intravenous drug using population in 1982. The aim of the present study was to assess the prevalence of HDV in these two groups at risk of HBV infection in South East London. DESIGN--The study was a cohort analysis of HBV and delta virus serum markers, stratified temporally and with respect to intravenous drug use and sexual practice. SETTING--This was a population study of 372 consecutive intravenous drug users attending a local drug rehabilitation centre and 1481 subjects seen at a sexually transmitted disease clinic in the same area, during the years 1979 to 1988. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS--Of 372 intravenous drug users, 195 (52.4%) had evidence of current or past infection with HBV, of whom 17 had chronic HBV infection--a carriage rate of 8.7%. Twelve (70.6%) of these 17 also had chronic HDV infection--the first cases being identified in 1984. By comparison, 406 (27.4%) of the sexually transmitted disease clinic patients had been been exposed to HBV, 32 having chronic HBV--a carriage rate of 7.9% (7.5% v 9.4% among male homosexuals v male heterosexuals). Ten had been exposed to HDV (the first case in 1980) but only two (who did not admit to intravenous drug use) had chronic HDV infections (p less than 0.0005 v the rehabilitation centre patients). CONCLUSIONS--Although the HBV carriage rate is very similar in these two populations, chronic HDV infections were mainly confined to intravenous drug users. However, reports from the USA and France indicate spread of delta virus to the male homosexual community and, since there is clearly a pool of HDV in SE London, vaccination against HBV in these risk groups in likely to be cost-effective and should be actively encouraged.     

Penetrating keratoplasty in south east London 1981-1986: epidemiological aspects and demands on medical resources.

We have compared penetrating keratoplasty at a teaching hospital and a district general hospital (DGH). At the teaching hospital, the pathology was similar to previous reports, but at the DGH the patients were older (P less than 0.01) and had a worse prognosis. The vision in the unoperated eye was also frequently poor. The number of postoperative outpatient visits within a hospital was unrelated to the original disease, and there was no statistically significant difference between the two centres. At the DGH, a corneal transplant patient requires the outpatient resources equivalent to three matched cataract patients. The implications for medical manpower requirements are discussed.     

Ethnic density and deliberate self harm; a small area study in south east London

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Relative risks are frequently used to convey how strongly outcomes like mental illness and suicidal behaviour are associated with personal characteristics like ethnic background. This study examined whether RRs for deliberate self harm (DSH) in ethnic groups vary between small areas according to their ethnic mix. DESIGN: Small area study of DSH rates in ethnic groups, by local ethnic density, using negative binomial regression. SETTING: 73 south London electoral wards, 1994-1997. SUBJECTS: 1643 people attending casualty after DSH. MAIN RESULTS: African-Caribbean and Asian DSH rates, relative to the white population, varied between wards. A linear model indicated a decline by factors (relative rate ratios) 0.76 (95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.64 to 0.90) and 0.59 (95% CI 0.36 to 0.97) respectively per SD increase in the local size of these minority populations. However, for both groups, an inverted U shaped curve provided a better fit for the link between the relative DSH rate in these groups and their local population density. CONCLUSIONS: The DSH rate of minority groups relative to the white group is low (suggesting protection) in some areas, and high (suggesting risk) elsewhere. This has implications for management of suicidal behaviour in ethnic groups but also for interpretation, and policy implementation, of research on risk for suicidal behaviour, and, probably, many other outcomes. Relative risks or rates are not stable indicators of association in psychiatric epidemiology.