Statins for secondary prevention in elderly patients: a hierarchical bayesian meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: This study was designed to determine whether statins reduce all-cause mortality in elderly patients with coronary heart disease. BACKGROUND: Statins continue to be underutilized in elderly patients because evidence has not consistently shown that they reduce mortality. METHODS: We searched 5 electronic databases, the Internet, and conference proceedings to identify relevant trials. In addition, we obtained unpublished data for the elderly patient subgroups from 4 trials and for the secondary prevention subgroup from the PROSPER (PROspective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk) trial. Inclusion criteria were randomized allocation to statin or placebo, documented coronary heart disease, > or =50 elderly patients (defined as age > or =65 years), and > or =6 months of follow-up. Data were analyzed with hierarchical Bayesian modeling. RESULTS: We included 9 trials encompassing 19,569 patients with an age range of 65 to 82 years. Pooled rates of all-cause mortality were 15.6% with statins and 18.7% with placebo. We estimated a relative risk reduction of 22% over 5 years (relative risk [RR] 0.78; 95% credible interval [CI] 0.65 to 0.89). Furthermore, statins reduced coronary heart disease mortality by 30% (RR 0.70; 95% CI 0.53 to 0.83), nonfatal myocardial infarction by 26% (RR 0.74; 95% CI 0.60 to 0.89), need for revascularization by 30% (RR 0.70; 95% CI 0.53 to 0.83), and stroke by 25% (RR 0.75; 95% CI 0.56 to 0.94). The posterior median estimate of the number needed to treat to save 1 life was 28 (95% CI 15 to 56). CONCLUSIONS: Statins reduce all-cause mortality in elderly patients and the magnitude of this effect is substantially larger than had been previously estimated.     

Mortality and heart rate in the elderly: role of cognitive impairment

Mortality related to heart rate (HR) increase in the elderly has not yet been well established. To ascertain the relationships among cognitive impairment (CI), mortality, and HR increase, the authors prospectively studied a random sample of elderly subjects stratified according to presence or absence of CI. Elderly subjects randomly selected in 1991 (n = 1332) were followed up for 12 years. Mortality was established in 98.1% of the subjects. When HR was stratified in quartiles (< 69, 70-75, 76-80, and > 80 bpm), mortality was linearly associated with increased HR in all (from 47.7 to 57.0; r2 = .43, p = .019) and in subjects without (from 41.7 to 51.1%; r2 = .50, p = .043) but not in those with CI (from 57.5 to 66.1; r2 = .20, p = .363). Cox regression analysis, adjusted for several variables, shows that HR doesn't predict mortality in all subjects (RR 0.69; 95% CI = 0.27-1.73) or in those with CI (RR 0.91; 95% CI = 0.81-1.02). In contrast, HR predicts mortality in subjects without CI (RR 1.10; 95% CI = 1.00-1.22). Hence, HR increase is a predictor of mortality in elderly subjects without CI. However, when considering all elderly subjects and those with CI, HR increase seems to have no effect on mortality. Thus, CI should be considered when focusing on HR increase as risk factor for mortality in the elderly.     

Prognostic Value of Heart Rate Variability in Time Domain Analysis in Congestive Heart Failure

AIMS: Analysis of heart rate variability is a noninvasive tool that allows to study autonomic control of the heart. Several studies have shown disturbed heart rate variability in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). We sought to assess the prognostic value of time domain measures of heart rate variability in CHF. METHODS AND RESULTS: We prospectively enrolled 190 patients with CHF in sinus rhythm, mean age 61+/-12 years, 109 (57.4 %) in NYHA class II and 81 (42.6 %) in class III or IV, mean cardiothoracic ratio 57.6+/-6.4 % and mean left ventricular ejection fraction 28.2+/-8.8 %, 85 (45 %) with ischemic and 105 (55 %) with idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy. Time domain measures of heart rate variability were obtained from 24 h Holter ECG recordings. During follow-up (22+/-18 months), 55 patients died. In multivariate analysis, independent predictors for all-cause mortality were: ischemic heart disease, cardiothoracic ratio > or =60 % and standard deviation of all normal RR intervals <67 ms (RR=2.5, 95 % CI 1.5--4.2). CONCLUSIONS: Depressed heart rate variability has independent prognostic value in patients with CHF.     

Efficacy of statin therapy in chronic systolic cardiac insufficiency: a meta-analysis

Background

Conflicting results currently exist on the clinical use of statins in patients with chronic systolic heart failure (CHF). This study aimed to investigate the effect of statins on clinical outcomes of CHF by a meta-analysis based on randomized controlled trials (RCTs).

Methods

We searched PubMed, MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane databases through 2010 and renewed in February 2011. We included RCTs of subjects who underwent statin or placebo treatment for established CHF, and provided data on clinical outcomes. Risk ratios (RR) were calculated using a random effects model.

Results

Thirteen trials involving 10,447 CHF patients were included in the meta-analysis. The pooling analysis showed that statin treatment did not significantly reduce the risk of all-cause death (RR = 0.93, 95% CI: 0.81–1.07, p = 0.31), death for cardiovascular cause or pump failure (p > 0.10), and rehospitalization for heart failure (RR = 0.90, 95% CI: 0.78–1.04, p = 0.15). In addition, statin therapy had a non-significant trend towards reduced risk of nonfatal myocardial infarction (RR = 0.84, 95% CI: 0.68–1.02, p = 0.08). When restricted to various statins and patients' age, the analysis demonstrated that atorvastatin was associated with reduced all-cause mortality (p = 0.009) and readmission rate for heart failure (p = 0.005), and the superiority of statin therapy was significant in CHF patients less than 65 years (both p < 0.01).

Conclusions

Although statin has little impact on clinical outcomes in overall CHF patients, statin administration if needed is feasible to CHF patients, and the treatment might be effective when restricted to specific statins or populations.     

Symptoms in patients with heart failure are prognostic predictors: insights from COMET

BACKGROUND: Although functional status, as assessed by the New York Heart Association classification, is known to be a powerful prognostic marker in chronic heart failure (CHF), the significance of individual symptoms such as breathlessness and fatigue are unknown. OBJECTIVE: To assess the relative importance of self-reported severity of symptoms as predictors of outcomes in CHF. METHODS AND RESULTS: All 3029 patients randomized in the Carvedilol or Metoprolol European Trial (ie, COMET) study were included in the analysis. Mean follow-up was 58 months. Symptoms were assessed by 5-point scales. In a univariate analysis, worse scores for breathlessness, orthopnea and fatigue were all significantly related to increased mortality (all P < .0001) and development of worsening heart failure. In a multivariate Cox regression analysis including 16 baseline covariates, only the symptom of breathlessness remained significantly related to mortality (risk ratio [RR] 1.14 per unit: 95% CI 1.04-1.26; P = .01). Fatigue, but not breathlessness, remained a significant predictor for developing worsening heart failure (RR 1.09 per unit; 95% CI 1.02-1.18; P = .02). CONCLUSIONS: Fatigue and breathlessness, common symptoms in CHF, have important and independent long-term prognostic implications. Accordingly, symptoms need to be effectively evaluated not only because symptom alleviation is a target for treatment, but also because they guide prognosis in patients with CHF.     

The association between the length of the QT interval and mortality in the Cardiovascular Health Study

PURPOSE: A long QT interval is a risk factor for arrhythmic events and sudden death. Whether moderate QT prolongation is associated with clinical events in community-dwelling elderly patients is uncertain. METHODS: We measured the QT interval in a population-based sample of 5888 men and women at least 65 years of age who were participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study. The association between Bazett's rate-corrected QT (QTc, in ms) and mortality during the subsequent 10 years was evaluated. We stratified participants by the presence or absence of coronary heart disease status at baseline, and adjusted for coronary heart disease risk factors. RESULTS: The rates of all-cause and coronary heart disease mortality were greater in participants with longer QTc intervals. Among participants without known coronary heart disease, those whose QTc interval was >450 ms were at increased risk of all-cause mortality (relative risk [RR] = 1.34; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.07 to 1.67) and coronary heart disease mortality (RR = 1.6; 95% CI: 1.0 to 2.5) when compared with participants whose QTc interval was <410 ms. The associations were stronger among those with known coronary heart disease (RR for all-cause mortality = 2.3; 95% CI: 1.6 to 3.3; and RR for coronary heart disease mortality = 2.0; 95% CI: 1.1 to 3.7). CONCLUSIONS: The QT interval from the standard electrocardiograms is of value for identification of elderly persons at increased risk of coronary heart disease and total mortality. A QTc interval >450 ms should prompt clinical evaluation and possible interventions to reduce the risk of coronary events.     

Chronic heart failure in the very elderly: clinical status, survival, and prognostic factors in 188 patients more than 70 years old.

BACKGROUND: Chronic heart failure (CHF) is a frequent disease with a dismal prognosis, but little is known about survival in the very elderly. There are no data on the prognostic value of cardiopulmonary exercise testing in this population. We aimed to assess exercise capacity, survival, and prognostic parameters in elderly patients with CHF. METHODS: We evaluated 188 patients with CHF >70 years old (mean 77 +/- 4 years, range 70-94 years) seen at our heart failure clinic between March 1992 and June 1998. A cardiopulmonary exercise test was performed in 102 patients (peak VO2 15.3 +/- 4.7, VE/VCO2 slope 39.6 +/- 15.01). All patients were followed up for at least 12 months. The prognostic end point of the study was all-cause mortality. RESULTS: At the end of follow-up (16 +/- 10 mo, range 12-41 mo), 67 patients (35.6%) had died (1-year mortality rate 26% [95% confidence interval 20-32]). In univariate analysis New York Heart Association class (NYHA) (relative risk [RR] = 2.56, P <.0001), VE/VCO2 (RR = 1.041, P <.0001), peak VO2 (RR = 0.87, P =.0007), and fractional shortening (RR = 0.95, P <.0001) predicted mortality. Peak VO2 predicted mortality independently of age, NYHA class, and left ventricular ejection fraction. A subgroup of 12 patients with dynamic left ventricular outflow tract obstruction during stress had an excellent outcome, with a 100% survival at the end of follow-up (mean 16 +/- 7 mo, range 12-39 mo). CONCLUSIONS: The prognosis in elderly patients with CHF is poor. Valid exercise testing results can be obtained in more than 50% of elderly patients with CHF. NYHA class and peak VO2 are the strongest prognostic factors in this population.     

Prognostic benefit of beta-blockers in patients not receiving ACE-Inhibitors.

AIMS: Beta-blockers (BBs) confer significant prognostic benefit in patients (pts) with systolic chronic heart failure (CHF). However, major trials have thus far studied BBs mainly in addition to ACE-Inhibitors or angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) as background therapy. The magnitude of the prognostic benefit of BBs in the absence of ACE-I or ARB has not as yet been determined. METHODS AND RESULTS: We performed a meta-analysis of all placebo-controlled BB studies in patients with CHF (n>200). Trials were identified via Medline literature searches, meeting abstracts, and contact with study organizations. Results for all-cause mortality and death or heart failure hospitalization were pooled using the Mantel-Haenszel (fixed effects) method. The impact of BB therapy on all-cause mortality in CHF, in the absence (4.8%) and presence (95.2%) of ACE-I (or ARB), was determined from six trials of 13 370 patients. The risk ratio (RR) for BBs vs. placebo was 0.73 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.53-1.02] in the absence of ACE-I or ARB at baseline, compared with a RR of 0.76 (95% CI 0.71-0.83) in the presence of these agents. When ACE-Inhibitors were analysed in the same way (pre-BB), a RR of 0.89 (0.80-0.99) vs. placebo was observed in studies of >90 days. The impact of BB therapy on death or HF hospitalization in systolic CHF, in the absence and presence of ACE-I, was determined from three trials of 8988 patients. The RR for BBs vs. placebo was 0.81 (95% CI 0.61-1.08) in the absence of ACE-I or ARB at baseline, compared with a RR of 0.78 (95% CI 0.74-0.83) in the presence of these agents. When ACE-Is were analysed in the same way (pre-BB), a RR of 0.85 (95% CI 0.78-0.93) vs. placebo was observed in studies of >90 days. CONCLUSION: The magnitude of the prognostic benefit conferred by BBs in the absence of ACE-I appears to be similar to those of ACE-Is in systolic CHF. These data therefore suggest that either ACE-Is or BBs could be used as first-line neurohormonal therapy in patients with systolic CHF. Prospective studies directly comparing these agents are required to definitively address this issue.     

Prognostic importance of cognitive impairment in chronic heart failure patients: Does specialist management make a difference?

BACKGROUND: Cognitive impairment is common among chronic heart failure (CHF) patients. AIMS: To determine the prognostic significance of cognitive impairment in patients participating in a randomized study of a CHF management program (CHF-MP). METHODS: CHF patients were randomized to a CHF-MP (n=100) or usual care (n=100). Baseline cognition was assessed using the Mini Mental Status Examination (MMSE). Five-year all-cause mortality, and combined death-or-readmission, were compared on the basis of the presence (MMSE 19-26) or absence (MMSE >26) of cognitive impairment. RESULTS: 27 patients (13.5%) had cognitive impairment and, on an adjusted basis, were more likely to die (96.3% versus 68.2%. RR 2.19, 95% CI 1.41 to 3.39: P<0.001) and/or experience an unplanned hospitalization (100% versus 94%. RR 1.44, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.95: P=0.019). Cognitively impaired patients had a similar (non-significant) adjusted risk of death-or-readmission in both the CHF-MP (RR 1.40, 95% CI 0.63 to 3.11: P=0.403) and in usual care (RR 1.38, 95% CI 0.75 to 2.53: P=0.305). In the usual care cohort, cognitive impairment was associated with a greater (non-significant), adjusted risk of death (RR 1.61, 95% CI 1.10 to 4.92: P=0.122). In the CHF-MP, adjusted risk of death was significantly higher for cognitively impaired patients (RR 2.33, 95% CI 1.10 to 4.92: P=0.027). CONCLUSION: These data suggest that "mild" cognitive impairment is of prognostic importance in CHF: even when a CHF-MP has been applied.     

Waist Circumference but Not Body Mass Index Predicts Long‐Term Mortality in Elderly Subjects with Chronic Heart Failure

OBJECTIVES: To examine whether waist circumference (WC) and body‐mass index (BMI) can predict long‐term mortality in elderly subjects with and without chronic heart failure (CHF). DESIGN: Longitudinal evaluation with a 12‐year follow‐up. SETTING: Campania, a region of southern Italy. PARTICIPANTS: One thousand three hundred thirty‐two subjects aged 65 and older selected from the electoral rolls of Campania. MEASUREMENTS: The relationship between WC or BMI and mortality during a 12‐year follow‐up in 125 subjects with and 1,143 subjects without CHF. RESULTS: Mortality increased as WC increased in elderly subjects without CHF (from 47.8% to 56.7%, P=.01), and the increase was even greater in patients with CHF (from 58.1% to 82.0%, P=.01). In contrast, mortality decreased as BMI increased in elderly subjects without CHF (from 53.8% to 46.1%, P0 =.046) but not in those with CHF. According to Cox regression analysis, BMI protected against long‐term mortality in the absence but not in the presence of CHF. In the absence of CHF, WC was associated with a 2% increased risk of long‐term mortality for each 1‐cm greater WC (Hazard Ratio (HR)=1.02, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.01–1.03; P<.001), versus 5% increased in the presence of CHF (HR=1.06, 95% CI=1.02–1.10; P<.001). CONCLUSION: WC, but not BMI, is predictive of long‐term mortality in elderly individuals with CHF and to a lesser extent in those without CHF.     

Determinants of late-onset heart failure in myocardial infarction survivors: GISSI Prevenzione trial results

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Improvement in the early phase of myocardial infarction (MI) is associated with a higher rate of late complications, including late-onset heart failure (LHF). The factors predicting LHF are not well understood. Our aims were to identify the factors predicting LHF and to determine the survival rate in these patients. PATIENTS AND METHOD: The GISSI-Prevenzione trial involved 11,323 low-risk patients (NYHA class < or = II) who had had a recent MI (< 3 months). It was a multicenter, open-label, clinical trial of the efficacy of treatment with polyunsaturated fatty acids, vitamin E, both, or neither. Patients with heart failure at baseline and those whose ejection fraction was unknown (n = 2908) were excluded from the present analysis. Late-onset heart failure was defined prospectively as hospital admission due to heart failure. A Cox regression model adjusted for major covariates was used for risk analysis. RESULTS: The study included 8415 patients. During 3.5 years of follow-up, 192 (2.3%) developed LHF. The risk of LHF could be predicted from readily available parameters: age (per year; RR=1.07; 95% CI, 1.05-1.09), ejection fraction (per 1% increment; RR=0.96; 95% CI, 0.94-0.97), heart rate (> or = 74 beats/min; RR=1.62; 95% CI, 1.21-2.16), white blood cell count (> or = 8900 per ml; RR=1.42; 95% CI, 1.05-1.94), diabetes (RR=1.62; 95% CI, 1.17-2.24), hypertension (RR=1.76; 95% CI, 1.33-2.34), peripheral artery disease (RR=2.11; 95% CI, 1.32-3.37), and reinfarction (RR=2.09; 95% CI, 1.28-3.39). LHF was associated with poor survival: (RR=2.34; 95% CI, 1.63-3.36). CONCLUSIONS: The risk of LHF in post-MI patients can be predicted from readily available parameters. LHF was associated with a poor prognosis.     

Chronic kidney disease: an independent risk factor of all-cause mortality for elderly Chinese patients with chronic heart failure

Objective

To evaluate the prognostic value of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in elderly Chinese patients with chronic heart failure (CHF).

Methods

The study consisted of 327 elderly patients with CHF. All-cause mortality was chosen as an endpoint over the median follow-up period of 345 days. Cox regression analysis was used to identify the risk factors of mortality.

Results

The median age of the entire cohort was 85 years (60–100 years). The mortality for 168 elderly patients with CHF and CKD (51.4% of entire cohort) was 39.9% (67 deaths), which was higher than the mortality for CHF patients without CKD [25.2% (40/159 deaths)] and the mortality for entire cohort with CHF [32.7% (107/327 deaths)]. The Cox regression analysis showed that old age [hazard ratio (HR): 1.033; 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.004–1.064], CKD (HR: 1.705; 95% CI: 1.132–2.567), CHF New York Heart Association (NYHA) class IV (HR: 1.913; 95% CI: 1.284–2.851), acute myocardial infarction (AMI) (HR: 1.696; 95% CI: 1.036–2.777), elevated resting heart rate (HR: 1.021; 95% CI: 1.009–1.033), and decreased plasma albumin (HR: 0.883; 95% CI: 0.843–0.925) were independent risk factors of mortality for elderly patients with CHF.

Conclusions

CKD was an independent risk factor of mortality for elderly Chinese patients with CHF.     

A population-based study of the long-term risks associated with atrial fibrillation: 20-year follow-up of the Renfrew/Paisley study

PURPOSE: To describe the effect of atrial fibrillation on long-term morbidity and mortality. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: The Renfrew/Paisley Study surveyed 7052 men and 8354 women aged 45-64 years between 1972 and 1976. All hospitalizations and deaths occurring during the subsequent 20 years were analyzed by the presence or absence of atrial fibrillation at baseline. Lone atrial fibrillation was defined in the absence of other cardiovascular signs or symptoms. Cox proportional hazards models were used to adjust for age and cardiovascular conditions. RESULTS: After 20 years, 42 (89%) of the 47 women with atrial fibrillation had a cardiovascular event (death or hospitalization), compared with 2276 (27%) of the 8307 women without this arrhythmia. Among men, 35 (66%) of 53 with atrial fibrillation had an event, compared with 3151 (45%) of 6999 without atrial fibrillation. In women, atrial fibrillation was an independent predictor of cardiovascular events (rate ratio [RR] = 3.0; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.1-4.2), fatal or nonfatal strokes (RR = 3.2; 95% CI: 1.0-5.0), and heart failure (RR = 3.4; 95% CI: 1.9-6.2). The rate ratios among men were 1.8 (95% CI: 1.3-2.5) for cardiovascular events, 2.5 (95% CI: 1.3-4.8) for strokes, and 3.4 (95% CI: 1.7-6.8) for heart failure. Atrial fibrillation was an independent predictor of all-cause mortality in women (RR = 2.2; 95% CI: 1.5-3.2) and men (RR = 1.5; 95% CI: 1.2-2.2). However, lone atrial fibrillation (which occurred in 15 subjects) was not associated with a statistically significant increase in either cardiovascular events (RR = 1.5; 95% CI: 0.6-3.6) or mortality (RR = 1.8; 95% CI: 0.9-3.8). CONCLUSIONS: Atrial fibrillation is associated with an increased long-term risk of stroke, heart failure, and all-cause mortality, especially in women.     

Prognostic relevance of atrial fibrillation in patients with chronic heart failure on long-term treatment with beta-blockers: results from COMET.

AIMS: Atrial fibrillation is common in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). We analysed the risk associated with atrial fibrillation in a large cohort of patients with chronic heart failure all treated with a beta-blocker. METHODS AND RESULTS: In COMET, 3029 patients with CHF were randomized to carvedilol or metoprolol tartrate and followed for a mean of 58 months. We analysed the prognostic relevance on other outcomes of atrial fibrillation on the baseline electrocardiogram compared with no atrial fibrillation and the impact of new onset atrial fibrillation during follow-up. A multivariate analysis was performed using a Cox regression model where 10 baseline covariates were entered together with study treatment allocation. Six hundred patients (19.8%) had atrial fibrillation at baseline. These patients were older (65 vs. 61 years), included more men (88 vs.78%), had more severe symptoms [higher New York Heart Association (NYHA) class] and a longer duration of heart failure (all P<0.0001). Atrial fibrillation was associated with significantly increased mortality [relative risk (RR) 1.29: 95% CI 1.12-1.48; P<0.0001], higher all-cause death or hospitalization (RR 1.25: CI 1.13-1.38), and cardiovascular death or hospitalization for worsening heart failure (RR 1.34: CI 1.20-1.52), both P<0.0001. By multivariable analysis, atrial fibrillation no longer independently predicted mortality. Beneficial effects on mortality by carvedilol remained significant (RR 0.836: CI 0.74-0.94; P=0.0042). New onset atrial fibrillation during follow-up (n=580) was associated with significant increased risk for subsequent death in a time-dependent analysis (RR 1.90: CI 1.54-2.35; P<0.0001) regardless of treatment allocation and changes in NYHA class. CONCLUSION: In CHF, atrial fibrillation significantly increases the risk for death and heart failure hospitalization, but is not an independent risk factor for mortality after adjusting for other predictors of prognosis. Treatment with carvedilol compared with metoprolol offers additional benefits among patients with atrial fibrillation. Onset of new atrial fibrillation in patients on long-term beta-blocker therapy is associated with significant increased subsequent risk of mortality and morbidity.     

Measures of heart period variability as predictors of mortality in hospitalized patients with decompensated congestive heart failure

Depressed heart rate variability (HRV) is a powerful independent predictor of a poor outcome in patients with chronic and stable congestive heart failure (CHF). However, the prognostic value of HRV analysis in patients hospitalized for decompensated CHF is not known. The aim of this study was to investigate whether HRV parameters obtained during admission for decompensated CHF could predict survival after hospital discharge. We studied 199 patients (131 men, aged 60 +/- 14 years) with a previous diagnosis of New York Heart Association class III or IV CHF who were admitted to the hospital for decompensated CHF. Twenty-four-hour Holter recordings were obtained on admission, and measures of HRV were calculated in the time and frequency domain. During a mean follow-up of 312 +/- 150 days, 40 patients (21.1%) died. Kaplan-Meier analysis indicated that patients with SD of the RR intervals over a 24-hour period (p = 0.027), SD of all 5-minute mean RR intervals (p = 0.043), total power (p = 0.022), and ultra-low-frequency power (p = 0.008) in the lower tertile were at a higher risk of death. In a multivariate Cox regression model, the same indexes in the lower tertile were independent predictors of mortality: SD of the RR intervals over a 24-hour period (risk ratio [RR] 2.2, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05 to 4.3, p = 0.036), SD of all 5-minute mean RR intervals (RR 2.1, 95% CI 1.05 to 4.2, p = 0.04), total power (RR 2.2, 95% CI 1.08 to 4.2, p = 0.03), and ultra-low-frequency power (RR 2.6, 95% CI 1.3 to 5.3, p = 0.007). Therefore, the severity of autonomic perturbations during hospital admission for CHF decompensation, as reflected by measures of overall HRV, can predict survival after hospital discharge. Together with previous studies, our findings suggest that indexes of overall HRV provide useful prognostic information in the full spectrum of CHF severity.     

Relationship between plasma lipids and all-cause mortality in nondemented elderly

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the relationship between plasma lipids and risk of death from all causes in nondemented elderly. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Community-based sample of Medicare recipients, aged 65 years and older, residing in northern Manhattan. PARTICIPANTS: Two thousand two hundred seventy-seven nondemented elderly, aged 65 to 98; 672 (29.5%) white/non-Hispanic, 699 (30.7%) black/non-Hispanic, 876 (38.5%) Hispanic, and 30 (1.3%) other. MEASUREMENTS: Anthropometric measures: fasting plasma total cholesterol, triglyceride, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and non-HDL-C, body mass index, and apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype. clinical measures: neuropsychological, neurological, medical, and functional assessments; medical history of diabetes mellitus, heart disease, hypertension, stroke, and treatment with lipid-lowering drugs. Vital status measure: National Death Index date of death. Survival methods were used to examine the relationship between plasma lipids and subsequent mortality in younger and older nondemented elderly, adjusting for potential confounders. RESULTS: Nondemented elderly with levels of total cholesterol, non-HDL-C, and LDL-C in the lowest quartile were approximately twice as likely to die as those in the highest quartile (rate ratio (RR)=1.8, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.3-2.4). These results did not vary when analyses were adjusted for body mass index, APOE genotype, diabetes mellitus, heart disease, hypertension, stroke, diagnosis of cancer, current smoking status, or demographic variables. The association between lipid levels and risk of death was attenuated when subjects with less than 1 year of follow-up were excluded (RR=1.4, 95% CI=1.0-2.1). The relationship between total cholesterol, non-HDL-C, HDL-C, and triglycerides and risk of death did not differ for older (>or=75) and younger participants (>75), whereas the relationship between LDL-C and risk of death was stronger in younger than older participants (RR=2.4, 95% CI=1.2-4.9 vs RR=1.6, 95% CI=1.02-2.6, respectively). Overall, women had higher mean lipid levels than men and lower mortality risk, but the risk of death was comparable for men and women with comparable low lipid levels. CONCLUSION: Low cholesterol level is a robust predictor of mortality in the nondemented elderly and may be a surrogate of frailty or subclinical disease. More research is needed to understand these associations.     

Weight loss and mortality among free-living frail elders: a prospective study.

BACKGROUND: Numerous studies of the elderly population have indicated that body weight and weight changes are related to mortality, but the one group at particularly high risk of nutritional inadequacies--frail elders receiving home help services--has not been studied. METHODS: A prospective cohort of 288 frail elders (81 men; 207 women; mean age: 78.2 +/- 7.6 yrs) receiving home support services was followed for 3-5 years. Nutritional variables included baseline body mass index (BMI), weight loss prior to baseline, and energy and protein intake. Covariates included age, gender, smoking, and health and functional status. Cox's multivariate survival analysis was used to identify independent predictors of mortality. RESULTS: There were 102 deaths (35.4%) over the follow-up period. Univariate predictors included age, sex, BMI, weight loss, and functional status. In multivariate analysis, weight loss at baseline was a significant predictor of mortality, RR = 1.76 (95% CI: 1.15-2.71), as was male gender, RR = 2.71 (95% CI: 1.73-4.24), and age at baseline, RR = 1.40 (95% CI: 1.06-1.86). CONCLUSION: Among free-living frail elders, weight loss is a predictor of early mortality after controlling for smoking, and functional and health status indicators. From our observations, however, we cannot conclude that prevention of weight loss would lead to increased survival. This needs to be explored in an intervention study.     

Persistent high NTpro-BNP concentration as a negative prognostic factor in patients with decompensated heart failure

INTRODUCTION: Monitoring of natriuretic peptide concentration may be useful for the identification of high-risk patients presenting with decompensated chronic heart failure (CHF). AIM: Assessment of the predicting value of a significant decrease (by > or =20% vs. baseline) of N-terminal proBNP (NTpro-BNP, ROCHE) concentration during hospitalisation in patients with decompensated CHF. METHODS: This study involved 54 patients admitted to our centre because of CHF decompensation. Concentration of NTpro-BNP was measured on admission and at discharge from hospital. Primary end-points of this study were overall mortality and mortality with a number of cardiovascular-related readmissions. RESULTS: Mean NTpro-BNP concentration on admission was 7435+/-10040 pg/ml and at the time of discharge from hospital -- 4816+/-7822 pg/ml. In 31 (57%) patients a significant decrease (> or =20% vs baseline value) in NTpro-BNP level (mean: -58%+/-21%) was noted, while in the remainder (23 patients; 43%) neither an increase nor a decrease in NTpro-BNP levels was observed (mean: +72%+/-132%) despite optimal treatment and stabilisation of the clinical status. The mean follow-up duration was 358+/-240 days. Cox analysis showed that the absence of significant NTpro-BNP level decrease was associated with an increased risk of death -- RR: 3.69 (95% CI: 1.10-12.37; p=0.035) and was the single independent risk factor for readmission due to cardiovascular-related reasons and/or death -- RR: 2.29 (95% CI: 1.20-4.35; p=0.01). In the group of 23 patients with an increase or decrease in NTpro-BNP concentration of more than or equal to 20%, the survival rate was 65% vs. 87% in the remainder (p=0.02). CONCLUSIONS: The lack of a significant (> or =20%) decrease of NTpro-BNP level during hospitalisation correlates with a higher mortality and rate of readmissions. NTpro-BNP level monitoring may be of clinical importance for risk stratification in patients hospitalised for decompensated CHF.     

The efficacy of noninvasive ventilation in managing postextubation respiratory failure: A meta-analysis

Introduction

To determine the effectiveness of noninvasive ventilation (NIV) in the management of postextubation respiratory failure.

Methods

Databases including PubMed, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were searched to find relevant trials. Randomized and quasi-randomized trials studying NIV in adult patients with postextubation respiratory failure were included. Effects on primary outcomes (i.e., reintubation rate, and ICU or/and hospital mortality) were accessed in this meta-analysis.

Results

Ten trials involving 1382 patients were included: two used NIV in patients with established postextubation respiratory failure, and eight used NIV immediately after extubation. The use of NIV following extubation for patients (n = 302) with established respiratory failure did not decrease the reintubation rate (relative risk [RR] 1.02, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.83-1.25) and ICU mortality (RR 1.14, 95% CI 0.43-3.00), compared to standard medical therapy (SMT). Early application of NIV after extubation (n = 1080) also did not decrease the reintubation rate (RR 0.75, 95% CI 0.45-1.15) significantly. However, in the planned extubation subgroup (n = 849), there were significant reductions in the reintubation rate (RR 0.65, 95% CI 0.46-0.93), ICU mortality rate (RR 0.41, 95% CI 0.21-0.82), and hospital mortality rate (RR 0.59, 95% CI 0.38-0.93) compared to SMT.

Conclusion

Current evidence suggests that the use of NIV in patients with established postextubation respiratory failure should be monitored cautiously. Early use of NIV can benefit patients with planned extubation by decreasing the reintubation rate and the ICU and hospital mortality rates.     

Survival Trends of US Dialysis Patients with Heart Failure: 1995 to 2005

Summary

Background and objectives

Congestive heart failure (CHF) is a major risk factor for death in end-stage kidney disease; however, data on prevalence and survival trends are limited. The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence and mortality effect of CHF in successive incident dialysis cohorts.

Design, setting, participants, & measurements

This was a population-based cohort of incident US dialysis patients (n = 926,298) from 1995 to 2005. Age- and gender-specific prevalence of CHF was determined by incident year, whereas temporal trends in mortality were compared using multivariable Cox regression.

Results

The prevalence of CHF was significantly higher in women than men and in older than younger patients, but it did not change over time in men (range 28% to 33%) or women (range 33% to 36%). From 1995 to 2005, incident death rates decreased for younger men (≤70 years) and increased for older men (>70 years). For women, the pattern was similar but less impressive. During this period, the adjusted mortality risks (relative risk [RR]) from CHF decreased in men (from RR = 1.06 95% Confidence intervals (CI) 1.02–1.11 in 1995 to 0.91 95% CI 0.87–0.96 in 2005) and women (from RR = 1.06 95% CI 1.01–1.10 in 1995 to 0.90 95% CI 0.85–0.95 in 2005 compared with referent year 2000; RR = 1.00). The reduction in mortality over time was greater for younger than older patients (20% to 30% versus 5% to 10% decrease per decade).

Conclusions

Although CHF remains a common condition at dialysis initiation, mortality risks in US patients have declined from 1995 to 2005.