The impact of Medicaid expansion on spending and utilization by older low-income Medicare beneficiaries

Objective

To examine indirect spillover effects of Affordable Care Act (ACA) Medicaid expansions to working-age adults on health care coverage, spending, and utilization by older low-income Medicare beneficiaries.

Data Sources

2010–2018 Health and Retirement Study survey data linked to annual Medicare beneficiary summary files.

Study Design

We estimated individual-level difference-in-differences models of total spending for inpatient, institutional outpatient, physician/professional provider services; inpatient stays, outpatient visits, physician visits; and Medicaid and Part A and B Medicare coverage. We compared changes in outcomes before and after Medicaid expansion in expansion versus nonexpansion states.

Data Collection/Extraction Methods

The sample included low-income respondents aged 69 and older with linked Medicare data, enrolled in full-year traditional Medicare, and residing in the community.

Principal Findings

ACA Medicaid expansion was associated with a 9.8 percentage point increase in Medicaid coverage (95% CI: 0.020–0.176), a 4.4 percentage point increase in having any institutional outpatient spending (95% CI: 0.005–0.083), and a positive but statistically insignificant 2.4 percentage point change in Part B enrollment (95% CI: −0.003 to 0.050, p = 0.079).

Conclusions

ACA Medicaid expansion was associated with more institutional outpatient spending among older low-income Medicare beneficiaries. Increased care costs should be weighed against potential benefits from increased realized access to care.     

Trends in Medicare Part D Medication Therapy Management Eligibility Criteria

Background

To increase the enrollment rate of medication therapy management (MTM) programs in Medicare Part D plans, the US Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) lowered the allowable eligibility thresholds based on the number of chronic diseases and Part D drugs for Medicare Part D plans for 2010 and after. However, an increase in MTM enrollment rates has not been realized.

Objectives

To describe trends in MTM eligibility thresholds used by Medicare Part D plans and to identify patterns that may hinder enrollment in MTM programs.

Methods

This study analyzed data extracted from the Medicare Part D MTM Programs Fact Sheets (2008–2014). The annual percentages of utilizing each threshold value of the number of chronic diseases and Part D drugs, as well as other aspects of MTM enrollment practices, were analyzed among Medicare MTM programs that were established by Medicare Part D plans.

Results

For 2010 and after, increased proportions of Medicare Part D plans set their eligibility thresholds at the maximum numbers allowable. For example, in 2008, 48.7% of Medicare Part D plans (N = 347:712) opened MTM enrollment to Medicare beneficiaries with only 2 chronic disease states (specific diseases varied between plans), whereas the other half restricted enrollment to patients with a minimum of 3 to 5 chronic disease states. After 2010, only approximately 20% of plans opened their MTM enrollment to patients with 2 chronic disease states, with the remaining 80% restricting enrollment to patients with 3 or more chronic diseases.

Conclusion

The policy change by CMS for 2010 and after is associated with increased proportions of plans setting their MTM eligibility thresholds at the maximum numbers allowable. Changes to the eligibility thresholds by Medicare Part D plans might have acted as a barrier for increased MTM enrollment. Thus, CMS may need to identify alternative strategies to increase MTM enrollment in Medicare plans.     

Branded Price Variation in the United States Drug Market, 2010 to 2019

The transaction price for branded drugs in the United States often varies widely by the eventual payer, a fact that can complicate research and policy discussions surrounding drug pricing. We combine publicly-available data on branded drug prices from a host of sources—prices paid by Medicare (Parts B and D), the Veterans Affairs Administration (VA), those included in the Federal Supply Schedule (FSS), invoice prices paid by pharmacies described in National Average Drug Acquisition Costs (NADAC), list prices, and payments ultimately received by drug makers—to illustrate how prices vary across the U.S. market and how these relationships changed from 2010 to 2019. We document large variation across payers and find VA prices are generally the lowest, averaging nearly 50% below list prices during our study period, which is meaningfully lower than the average prices manufacturers ultimately receive. Some net prices, like those in Part D and average payments received by manufacturers, have diverged substantially from list prices in the last decade and are now much closer to the published VA and FSS prices. In part, this reflects unexpected net price increases among published VA and FSS prices that is worthy of future study.     

The effect of hospital discharge price increases on publicly reported measures of quality

Objective

To determine if increases in hospital discharge prices are associated with improvements in clinical quality or patient experience.

Data Sources

This study used Medicare cost report data and publicly available Medicare.gov Care Compare quality measures for approximately 3000 short-term care general hospitals between 2011 and 2018.

Study Design

We separately regressed quality measure scores on a lag of case mix adjusted discharge price, hospital fixed effects, and year indicators. Clinical quality measures included 30-day readmission rates for acute myocardial infarction, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, heart failure, hip and knee replacement, and pneumonia; risk-adjusted 30-day mortality rates for acute myocardial infarction, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, heart failure, and stroke; and 90-day complication rate for hip and knee replacement. Patient experience measures included the summary star rating and 10 domain measures reported through the Hospital Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems survey. We tested for heterogeneous effects by hospital ownership, number of beds, the commercial share of overall discharges, and market concentration.

Data Collection/Extraction Methods

We linked hospitals identified in Medicare cost reports to Medicare.gov Care Compare quality measures. We excluded hospitals for which we could not identify a discharge price or that had an unrealistic price.

Principal Findings

There was no positive association between lagged discharge price and any clinical quality measure. For patient experience measures, a 2% increase in discharge price was not associated with overall patient satisfaction but was associated with small, statistically significant increases ranging from 0.01% to 0.02% (relative to mean scores) for seven of ten domain measures. There was a positive association for five of ten patient experience measures in competitive markets and one measure in both moderately concentrated and heavily concentrated markets.

Conclusions

We found no evidence that hospitals use higher prices to make investments in clinical quality; patient experience improved, but only negligibly.     

Changes in prenatal care and birth outcomes after federally qualified health center expansion

Objective

To evaluate whether the expansion of Federally Qualified Health Centers (FQHCs) improved late prenatal care initiation, low birth weight, and preterm birth among Medicaid-covered or uninsured individuals.

Data Sources and Study Setting

We identified all FQHCs in California using the Health Resources and Services Administration's Uniform Data System from 2000 to 2019. We used data from the U.S. Census American Community Survey to describe area characteristics. We measured outcomes in California birth certificate data from 2007 to 2019.

Study Design

We compared areas that received their first FQHC between 2011 and 2016 to areas that received it later or that had never had an FQHC. Specifically, we used a synthetic control with a staggered adoption approach to calculate non-parametric estimates of the average treatment effects on the treated areas. The key outcome variables were the rate of Medicaid or uninsured births with late prenatal care initiation (>3 months' gestation), with low birth weight (<2500 grams), or with preterm birth (<37 weeks' gestation).

Data Collection/Extraction Methods

The analysis was limited to births covered by Medicaid or that were uninsured, as indicated on the birth certificate.

Principal Findings

The 55 areas in California that received their first FQHC in 2011–2016 were more populous; their residents were more likely to be covered by Medicaid, to be low-income, or to be Hispanic than residents of the 48 areas that did not have an FQHC by the end of the study period. We found no statistically significant impact of the first FQHC on rates of late prenatal care initiation (ATT: −10.4 [95% CI −38.1, 15.0]), low birth weight (ATT: 0.2 [95% CI −7.1, 5.4]), or preterm birth (ATT: −7.0 [95% CI −15.5, 2.3]).

Conclusions

Our results from California suggest that access to primary and prenatal care may not be enough to improve these outcomes. Future work should evaluate the impact of ongoing initiatives to increase access to maternal health care at FQHCs through targeted workforce investments.     

Participation in a Medicare advanced primary care model and the delivery of high-value services

Objective

To evaluate whether primary care providers' participation in the Comprehensive Primary Care Plus Initiative (CPC+) was associated with changes in their delivery of high-value services.

Data Sources

Medicare Physician & Other Practitioners public use files from 2013 to 2019, 2017 to 2019 Medicare Part B claims for a 5% random sample of Medicare Fee-for-Service (FFS) beneficiaries, the Area Health Resources File, the National Plan & Provider Enumeration System files, and public use datasets from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Physician Compare.

Study Design

We used a difference-in-difference approach with a propensity score-matched comparison group to estimate the association of CPC+ participation with the delivery of annual wellness visits (AWVs), advance care planning (ACP), flu shots, counseling to prevent tobacco use, and depression screening. These services are prominent examples of high-value services, providing benefits to patients at a reasonable cost. We examined both the likelihood of delivering these services within a year and the count of services delivered per 1000 Medicare FFS beneficiaries per year.

Data Collection/Extraction Methods

Secondary data are linked at the provider level.

Principal Findings

We find that CPC+ participation was associated with increases in the likelihood of delivering AWVs (13.03 percentage points by CPC+'s third year, p < 0.001) and the number of AWVs per 1000 Medicare FFS beneficiaries (44 more AWVs by CPC+'s third year, p < 0.001). We also find that CPC+ participation was associated with more flu shots per 1000 beneficiaries (52 more shots by CPC+'s third year, p < 0.001) but not with the likelihood of delivering flu shots. We did not find consistent evidence for the association between CPC+ participation and ACP services, counseling to prevent tobacco use, or depression screening.

Conclusions

CPC+ participation was associated with increases in the delivery of AWVs and flu shots, but not other high-value services.     

Public trust is earned: Historical discrimination,carceral violence,and the COVID-19 pandemic

Objective

To assess whether knowledge of Tuskegee, the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agency's detainment of children, and satisfaction with the George Floyd death investigation were associated with trust in actors involved in the development and distribution of coronavirus vaccines.

Data Sources and Study Setting

National survey with a convenience sample of Black (n = 1019) and Hispanic (n = 994) adults between July 1 and 26, 2021.

Study Design

Observational study using stratified adjusted logistic regression models to measure the association between ratings of the trustworthiness of actors involved in the development and distribution of coronavirus vaccines.

Principal Findings

Among Black respondents, lower satisfaction with the George Floyd death investigation was associated with lower trustworthiness ratings of pharmaceutical companies (ME: −0.09; CI: −0.15, 0.02), the FDA (ME: −0.07; CI: −0.14, −0.00), the Trump Administration (ME: −0.09; CI: −0.16, −0.02), the Biden Administration (ME: −0.07, CI: −0.10, 0.04), and elected officials (ME: −0.10, CI: −0.18, −0.03). Among Hispanic respondents, lower satisfaction was associated with lower trustworthiness ratings of the Trump Administration (ME: −0.14, CI: −0.22, −0.06) and elected officials (ME: −0.11; CI: −0.19, −0.02). Greater knowledge of ICE's detainment of children and families among Hispanic respondents was associated with lower trustworthiness ratings of state elected officials (ME: −0.09, CI: −0.16, 0.01). Greater knowledge of the US Public Health Service Study of Syphilis in Tuskegee was associated with higher trustworthiness ratings of their usual source of care (ME: 0.09; CI: 0.28, 0.15) among Black respondents (ME: 0.09; CI: 0.01, 0.16).

Conclusions

Among Black respondents, lower satisfaction with the George Floyd death investigation was associated with lowered levels of trust in pharmaceutical companies, some government officials, and administrators; it was not associated with the erosion of trust in direct sources of health care delivery, information, or regulation. Among Hispanic respondents, greater knowledge of the ICE detainments was associated with lower trustworthiness ratings of elected state officials. Paradoxically, higher knowledge of the Study of Syphilis in Tuskegee was associated with higher trustworthiness ratings in usual sources of care.     

Effects of an electronic health record-based mobility assessment and automated referral for inpatient physical therapy on patient outcomes: A quasi-experimental study

Objective

To assess the effectiveness of a hospital physical therapy (PT) referral triggered by scores on a mobility assessment embedded in the electronic health record (EHR) and completed by nursing staff on hospital admission.

Data Sources

EHR and billing data from 12 acute care hospitals in a western Pennsylvania health system (January 2017–February 2018) and 11 acute care hospitals in a northeastern Ohio health system (August 2019–July 2021).

Study Design

We utilized a regression discontinuity design to compare patients admitted to PA hospitals with stroke who reached the mobility score threshold for an EHR-PT referral (treatment) to those who did not (control). Outcomes were hospital length of stay (LOS) and 30-day readmission or mortality. Control variables included demographics, insurance, income, and comorbidities. Hospital systems with EHR-PT referrals were also compared to those without (OH hospitals as alternative control). Subgroup analyses based on age were also conducted.

Data Extraction

We identified adult patients with a primary or secondary diagnosis of stroke and mobility assessments completed by nursing (n = 4859 in PA hospitals, n = 1749 in OH hospitals) who completed their inpatient stay.

Principal Findings

In the PA hospitals, patients with EHR-PT referrals had an 11.4 percentage-point decrease in their 30-day readmission or mortality rates (95% CI −0.57, −0.01) relative to the control. This effect was not observed in the OH hospitals for 30-day readmission (β = 0.01; 95% CI −0.25, 0.26). Adults over 60 years old with EHR-PT referrals in PA had a 26.2 percentage-point (95% CI −0.88, −0.19) decreased risk of readmission or mortality compared to those without. Unclear relationships exist between EHR-PT referrals and hospital LOS in PA.

Conclusions

Health systems should consider methodologies to facilitate early acute care hospital PT referrals informed by mobility assessments.     

Heterogeneity of design features in studies included in systematic reviews with meta-analysis of cognitive outcomes in children born very preterm

Background

Meta-analyses of the voluminous scientific literature on the impact of very preterm (VPT, <32 weeks' gestation) birth on cognition find a marked deficit in intelligence quotient (IQ) among children born VPT relative to term-born peers, but with unexplained between-study heterogeneity in effect size.

Objectives

To conduct an umbrella review to describe the design and methodology of primary studies and to assess whether methodological heterogeneity affects the results of meta-analyses.

Data Sources

Primary studies from five systematic reviews with meta-analysis on VPT birth and childhood IQ.

Study Selection and Data Extraction

Information on study design, sample characteristics and results was extracted from studies. Study features covered study type, sample size, follow-up rates, adjustment for social context, management of severe impairments and test type.

Synthesis

We used random-effects subgroup meta-analyses and meta-regressions to investigate the contribution of study features to between-study variance in standardised mean differences (SMD) in IQ between groups.

Results

In 58 cohorts (56%), children with severe impairments were excluded, while 23 (22%) cohorts accounted for social factors. The least reported feature was the follow-up rate (missing in 38 cohorts). The largest difference in SMDs was between studies using full scale IQ tests (61 cohorts, SMD −0.89, 95% CI −0.96, −0.82) versus short-form tests (27 cohorts, SMD −0.68, 95% CI −0.79, −0.57). The proportion of between-study variance explained by the type of test was 14%; the other features explained less than 1% of the variance.

Conclusions

Study design and methodology varied across studies, but most of them did not affect the variance in effect size, except the type of cognitive test. Key features, such as the follow-up rate, were not consistently reported limiting the evaluation of their potential contribution. Incomplete reporting limited the evaluation of the full impact of this methodological diversity.     

Comparison of survival outcomes among older adults with major trauma after trauma center versus non-trauma center care in the United States

Objective

To compare level 1 and 2 trauma centers with similarly sized non-trauma centers on survival after major trauma among older adults.

Data Sources and Study Setting

We used claims of 100% of 2012–2017 Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries who received hospital care after major trauma.

Study Design

Survival differences were estimated after applying propensity-score-based overlap weights. Subgroup analyses were performed for ambulance-transported patients and by external cause. We assessed the roles of prehospital care, hospital quality, and volume.

Data Collection

Data were obtained from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

Principal Findings

Thirty-day mortality was higher overall at level 1 versus non-trauma centers by 2.2 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.8, 2.6) percentage points (pp). Thirty-day mortality was higher at level 1 versus non-trauma centers by 2.3 (95% CI: 1.9, 2.8) pp for falls and 2.3 (95% CI: 0.2, 4.4) pp for motor vehicle crashes. Differences persisted at 1 year. Level 1 and 2 trauma centers had similar outcomes. Hospital quality and volume did not explain these differences. In the ambulance-transported subgroup, after adjusting for prehospital variables, no statistically significant differences remained.

Conclusions

Trauma centers may not provide longer survival than similarly sized non-trauma hospitals for severely injured older adults.     

Societal Preferences for Funding Orphan Drugs in the United Kingdom: An Application of Person Trade-Off and Discrete Choice Experiment Methods

Background

It is unclear whether UK National Health Service (NHS) policies for orphan drugs, which permit funding of non–cost-effective treatments, reflect societal preferences.

Medicare's hospital readmissions reduction program and the rise in observation stays

Objective

To evaluate whether Medicare's Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program (HRRP) is associated with increased observation stay use.

Data Sources and Study Setting

A nationally representative sample of fee-for-service Medicare claims, January 2009–September 2016.

Study Design

Using a difference-in-difference (DID) design, we modeled changes in observation stays as a proportion of total hospitalizations, separately comparing the initial (acute myocardial infarction, pneumonia, heart failure) and subsequent (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) target conditions with a control group of nontarget conditions. Each model used 3 time periods: baseline (15 months before program announcement), an intervening period between announcement and implementation, and a 2-year post-implementation period, with specific dates defined by HRRP policies.

Data Collection/Extraction Methods

We derived a 20% random sample of all hospitalizations for beneficiaries continuously enrolled for 12 months before hospitalization (N = 7,162,189).

Principal Findings

Observation stays increased similarly for the initial HRRP target and nontarget conditions in the intervening period (0.01% points per month [95% CI −0.01, 0.3]). Post-implementation, observation stays increased significantly more for target versus nontarget conditions, but the difference is quite small (0.02% points per month [95% CI 0.002, 0.04]). Results for the COPD analysis were statistically insignificant in both policy periods.

Conclusions

The increase in observation stays is likely due to other factors, including audit activity and clinical advances.