Wrist Fracture and Risk of Subsequent Fracture: Findings from the Women's Health Initiative Study

Wrist fractures are common in postmenopausal women and are associated with functional decline. Fracture patterns after wrist fracture are unclear. The goal of this study was to determine the frequency and types of fractures that occur after a wrist fracture among postmenopausal women. We carried out a post hoc analysis of data from the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study and Clinical Trials (1993–2010) carried out at 40 US clinical centers. Participants were postmenopausal women aged 50 to 79 years at baseline. Mean follow‐up duration was 11.8 years. Main measures included incident wrist, clinical spine, humerus, upper extremity, lower extremity, hip, and total non‐wrist fractures and bone mineral density (BMD) in a subset. Among women who experienced wrist fracture, 15.5% subsequently experienced non‐wrist fracture. The hazard for non‐wrist fractures was higher among women who had experienced previous wrist fracture than among women who had not experienced wrist fracture: non‐wrist fracture overall (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.40, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.33–1.48), spine (HR = 1.48, 95% CI 1.32–1.66), humerus (HR = 1.78, 95% CI 1.57–2.02), upper extremity (non‐wrist) (HR = 1.88, 95% CI 1.70–2.07), lower extremity (non‐hip) (HR = 1.36, 95% CI 1.26–1.48), and hip (HR = 1.50, 95% CI 1.32–1.71) fracture. Associations persisted after adjustment for BMD, physical activity, and other risk factors. Risk of non‐wrist fracture was higher in women who were younger when they experienced wrist fracture (interaction p value 0.02). Associations between incident wrist fracture and subsequent non‐wrist fracture did not vary by baseline BMD category (normal, low bone density, osteoporosis). A wrist fracture is associated with increased risk of subsequent hip, vertebral, upper extremity, and lower extremity fractures. There may be substantial missed opportunity for intervention in the large number of women who present with wrist fractures. © 2015 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.     

Effect of Total Hip Bone Area on Osteoporosis Diagnosis and Fractures

DXA is affected by skeletal size, with smaller bones giving lower areal BMD despite equal material density. Whether this size effect confounds the use of BMD as a diagnostic and fracture risk assessment tool is unclear. We identified 16,205 women of white ethnicity ≥50 yr of age undergoing baseline hip assessment with DXA (1998–2002) from a population‐based database that contains all clinical DXA test results for the Province of Manitoba, Canada. Total hip measurements were categorized according to quartile in total hip bone area (Q1 = smallest, Q4 = largest). Longitudinal health service records were assessed for the presence of nontraumatic osteoporotic fracture codes during a mean of 3.2 yr of follow‐up after BMD testing (757 osteoporotic fractures, 186 hip fractures). Total hip bone area strongly affected osteoporosis diagnosis with much higher rates in Q1 (14.4%) than Q4 (8.9%). However, incident fracture rates were constant across all area quartiles, and prevalent fractures were paradoxically fewer in smaller area quartiles (p < 0.001 for trend). Age was a potential confounder that correlated positively with area (r = 0.12, p < 0.0001). When age was not included in a Cox regression model, Q1 seemed to have a lower rate of incident osteoporotic fractures (HR = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.66–0.98, reference Q4) and hip fractures (HR = 0.63, 95% CI = 0.43–0.94) for a given level of BMD. In age‐adjusted regression models, total hip BMD was strongly predictive of incident osteoporotic fractures (HR per SD = 1.83, 95% CI = 1.68–1.99) and hip fractures (HR per SD = 2.80, 95% CI = 2.33–3.35), but there was no independent effect of bone area (categorical or continuous). Nested matched subgroup analysis and ROC analysis confirmed that bone area had no appreciable effect on incident fractures. We conclude that total hip areal BMD categorizes a substantially higher fraction of women with smaller bone area as being osteoporotic despite younger age. Incident fracture rates correlate equally well with BMD across all bone area quartiles when adjusted for age.     

Effects of antiresorptive treatment on nonvertebral fracture outcomes

Various definitions of nonvertebral fracture have been used in osteoporosis trials, precluding comparisons of efficacy. Using only subgroups of nonvertebral fractures for trial outcomes may underestimate the benefits and cost‐effectiveness of treatments. The objectives of this study were to determine (1) the effect of antiresorptive treatment on various nonvertebral fracture outcomes, (2) whether risk reduction from antiresorptive treatment is greater for nonvertebral fractures that have stronger associations with low BMD, and (3) sample size estimates for clinical trials of osteoporosis treatments. Study‐level data were combined from five randomized fracture‐prevention trials of antiresorptive agents that reduce the risk of nonvertebral fracture in postmenopausal women: alendronate, clodronate, denosumab, lasofoxifene, and zoledronic acid. Pooled effect estimates were calculated with random‐effects models. The five trials included 30,118 women; 2997 women had at least one nonvertebral fracture. There was no significant heterogeneity between treatments for any outcome (all p > 0.10). Antiresorptive treatment had similar effects on all fractures (summary hazard ratio [HR] = 0.76, 95% CI 0.70–0.81), high‐trauma fractures (HR = 0.74, 95% CI 0.57–0.96), low‐trauma fractures (HR = 0.77, (95% CI 0.71–0.83), nonvertebral six (ie, hip, pelvis, leg, wrist, humerus, and clavicle) fractures (HR = 0.73, 95% CI 0.66–0.80), other than nonvertebral six fractures (HR = 0.78, 95% CI 0.70–0.87), and all fractures other than finger, face, and toe (HR = 0.75, 95% CI 0.70–0.81). Risk reduction was not greater for fractures with stronger associations with low BMD (p = 0.77). A trial of all nonvertebral fractures would require fewer participants (n = 2641 per arm) than one of a subgroup of six fractures (n = 3289), for example. In summary, antiresorptive treatments reduced all nonvertebral fractures regardless of degree of trauma or special groupings, supporting the use of all nonvertebral fractures as a standard endpoint of osteoporosis trials and the basis for estimating the benefits and cost‐effectiveness of treatments. © 2011 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research     

Nitrate Medications,Fractures, and Change in Bone Mineral Density in Postmenopausal Women: Results from the Women's Health Initiative

Nitrate medications may increase bone mineral density (BMD), although information on fracture outcomes is sparse. We examined the association of nitrate medications with fractures (hip, wrist/arm, and total fractures) and changes in BMD (hip, spine, and whole body) in the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) Clinical Trials and Observational Study. A total of 139,211 postmenopausal women 50 to 79 years old without history of hip fracture were included in this prospective study. Medication use was ascertained directly from drug containers at baseline during in‐person interviews in 1993 to 1998. Exposure measures included any use (use/non‐use), type of nitrate (as‐needed, maintenance) and duration of use (≤5 years, >5 years). We used separate multivariable Cox proportional hazard models to analyze associations between each exposure and fracture outcome, with results presented as hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Multivariable linear regression models were used to examine 3‐year and 6‐year changes in BMD. At baseline, 1.2% (n = 1647) women were using a nitrate. During the mean ± SD follow‐up of 7.7 ± 1.5 years through 2005, women experienced 1582 hip fractures, 5156 wrist or arm fractures, and 22, 589 total fractures. After adjustment for confounders, nitrate use was not statistically associated with risk for hip (HR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.56 to 1.18), wrist/arm (HR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.74 to 1.23), or total fractures (HR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.85 to 1.08). As‐needed nitrate use, but not maintenance therapy, was associated with a lower risk of total fractures (HR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.62 to 0.95) and wrist/arm fractures (HR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.34 to 0.98). Nitrate use was not associated with 3‐year or 6‐year changes in BMD at any site. We conclude that any nitrate use was not significantly associated with lower risk of fractures or higher BMD; however, as‐needed nitrate use was associated with lower risks of total and wrist/arm fractures. © 2016 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.     

Older men with low serum IGF‐1 have an increased risk of incident fractures: The MrOS Sweden study

Osteoporosis‐related fractures constitute a major health concern not only in women but also in men. Insulin‐like growth factor 1 (IGF‐1) is a key determinant of bone mass, but the association between serum IGF‐1 and incident fractures in men remains unclear. To determine the predictive value of serum IGF‐1 for fracture risk in men, older men (n = 2902, mean age of 75 years) participating in the prospective, population‐based Osteoporotic Fractures in Men (MrOS) Sweden study were followed for a mean of 3.3 years. Serum IGF‐1 was measured at baseline by radioimmunoassay. Fractures occurring after the baseline visit were validated. In age‐adjusted hazards regression analyses, serum IGF‐1 associated inversely with risk of all fractures [hazard ratio (HR) per SD decrease = 1.23, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.07–1.41], hip fractures (HR per SD decrease = 1.45, 95% CI 1.07–1.97), and clinical vertebral fractures (HR per SD decrease = 1.40, 95% CI 1.10–1‐78). The predictive role of serum IGF‐1 for fracture risk was unaffected by adjustment for height, weight, prevalent fractures, falls, and major prevalent diseases. Further adjustment for bone mineral density (BMD) resulted in an attenuated but still significant association between serum IGF‐1 and fracture risk. Serum IGF‐1 below but not above the median was inversely related to fracture incidence. The population‐attributable risk proportion was 7.5% for all fractures and 22.9% for hip fractures. Taken together, older men with low serum IGF‐1 have an increased fracture risk, especially for the two most important fracture types, hip and vertebral fractures. The association between serum IGF‐1 and fracture risk is partly mediated via BMD. © 2011 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.     

Association of Bone Density Monitoring in Routine Clinical Practice With Anti-Osteoporosis Medication Use and Incident Fractures: A Matched Cohort Study

Routine bone mineral density (BMD) monitoring of individuals during the initial 5 years of anti-osteoporosis treatment is controversial. Using a registry-based cohort from the Province of Manitoba, Canada, we compared anti-osteoporosis medication use and fracture outcomes in women with versus without BMD monitoring receiving anti-osteoporosis medication. We identified 4559 women aged 40 years and older receiving anti-osteoporosis therapy with serial BMD testing (monitoring) within 5 years (mean interval 3.2 years) and 4559 propensity score–matched women without BMD monitoring. We assessed anti-osteoporosis medication use over 5 years from a population-based retail pharmacy database. Incident fractures to 10 years from health services data. During median 10 years observation, 1225 (13.4%) women developed major osteoporotic fracture, including 382 (4.2%) with hip fractures. Monitored women had significantly better fracture-free survival for major osteoporotic fracture (p = 0.040; 10-year cumulative risk 1.9% lower, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.3–3.6%) and hip fracture ( p = 0.001; 10-year cumulative risk 1.8% lower, 95% CI 0.7–2.8%) compared with women who were not monitored. Hazard ratios (HRs) were significantly lower in monitored versus not monitored women for major osteoporotic fracture (HR = 0.89, 95% CI 0.80–0.98) and hip fracture (HR = 0.74, 95% CI 0.63–0.87). Days of medication use, medication persistence ratio, and treatment switching over 5 years were greater in monitored versus not monitored women. At the end of 5 years, more women in the monitored group persisted on treatment and more switched treatment, with switching behavior associated with an observed interval reduction in BMD. In conclusion, our findings suggest a possible role for BMD monitoring after initiating anti-osteoporosis therapy in the routine clinical practice setting. © 2019 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.     

High Serum Serotonin Predicts Increased Risk for Hip Fracture and Nonvertebral Osteoporotic Fractures: The MrOS Sweden Study

Because several studies have implicated serotonin as a regulator of bone mass, we here explore its potential association on fracture risk and falls, as on bone mineral density (BMD) and muscle strength, in humans. Serum levels of serotonin were analyzed in 950 men (aged 69 to 81 years), participating in the Gothenburg part of the population‐based study MrOS Sweden. Men taking selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) had a mean value of 31.2 μg/L compared with 159.4 μg/L in those not taking SSRIs. SSRI users were excluded from further analysis. During 10‐year follow‐up, 224 men exhibited fractures, including 97 nonvertebral osteoporotic fractures (57 hip fractures), and 86 vertebral fractures. Serotonin was associated with hip fracture in linear analysis (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.27, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03–1.58) and to all fractures in a nonlinear manner, when quintiles of serotonin was included in quadratic terms (HR = 1.12, 95% CI 1.04–1.21). Men in serotonin quintile 5 had, in multivariable analysis, a HR of 2.30 (95% CI 1.31–4.02) for hip fracture and 1.82 (95% CI 1.17–2.85) for nonvertebral fractures compared with men in quintiles 1 to 4. Men in quintile 1 had, in multivariable analysis, a HR of 1.76 (95% CI 1.03–2.99) for nonvertebral fractures compared with men in quintiles 2 to 4. No association was found with vertebral fractures. Individuals in serotonin quintile 1 had higher prevalence of falls compared with quintiles 2 to 5 (odds ratio = 1.90, 95% CI 1.26–2.87). Serotonin was positively associated with hand‐grip strength (r = 0.08, p = 0.02) and inversely with hip BMD (r = ?0.10, p = 0.003). To assess the association between SSRIs and falls and fractures, the total MrOS Sweden cohort was examined (n = 3014). SSRI users (n = 90) had increased prevalence of falls (16% versus 33%, p = 0.0001) and increased rate of incident fractures (28.0 versus 44.7 per 1000 person‐years, p = 0.018). We present novel data showing that high levels of serotonin predict an increased risk for hip fracture and nonvertebral osteoporotic fractures. © 2018 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.     

The Importance of Previous Fracture Site on Osteoporosis Diagnosis and Incident Fractures in Women

Previous fracture increases the risk of subsequent fractures regardless of the site of the initial fracture. Fracture risk assessment tools have been developed to guide clinical management; however, no discrimination is made as to the site of the prior fracture. Our objective was to determine which sites of previous nontraumatic fractures are most strongly associated with a diagnosis of osteoporosis, defined by a bone mineral density (BMD) T‐score of ≤ ?2.5 at the femoral neck, and an incident major osteoporotic fracture. Using administrative health databases, we conducted a retrospective historical cohort study of 39,991women age 45 years and older who had BMD testing with dual‐energy X‐ray absorptiometry (DXA). Logistic regression and Cox proportional multivariate models were used to test the association of previous fracture site with risk of osteoporosis and incident fractures. Clinical fractures at the following sites were strongly and independently associated with higher risk of an osteoporotic femoral neck T‐score after adjustment for age: hip (odds ratio [OR], 3.58; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.04–4.21), pelvis (OR, 2.23; 95% CI, 1.66–3.0), spine (OR, 2.16; 95% CI, 1.77–2.62), and humerus (OR, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.49–2.02). Cox proportional hazards models, with adjustment for age and femoral neck BMD, showed the greatest increase in risk for a major osteoporotic fracture for women who had sustained previous fractures of the spine (hazard ratio [HR], 2.08; 95% CI, 1.72–2.53), humerus (HR, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.44–2.01), patella (HR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.10–2.18), and pelvis (HR, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.04–2.02). In summary, our results confirm that nontraumatic fractures in women are associated with osteoporosis at the femoral neck and that the site of previous fracture impacts on future osteoporotic fracture risk, independent of BMD. © 2014 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.     

Smoking predicts incident fractures in elderly men: Mr OS Sweden

The aim of this study was to investigate the association between smoking and bone mineral density (BMD) and radiographically verified prevalent vertebral fractures and incident fractures in elderly men. At baseline 3003 men aged 69 to 80 years of age from the Swedish Mr Os Study completed a standard questionnaire concerning smoking habits and had BMD of the hip and spine measured using dual‐energy X‐ray absorptiometry (DXA); 1412 men had an X‐ray of the thoracic‐ and lumbar spine. Radiologic registers were used to confirm reported new fractures after the baseline visit. At baseline, 8.4% were current smokers. Current smokers had a 6.2% lower BMD at the total hip and a 5.4% lower BMD at the lumbar spine (p < .001). Current smoking remained independently inversely associated with BMD at the hip and lumbar spine after adjusting for age, height, weight, calcium intake, physical activity, and centers as covariates. Prevalent vertebral fractures among current smokers were increased in unadjusted analyses [odds ratio (OR) = 1.90, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.26–2.87] and after adjustment for lumbar BMD (OR = 1.67, 95% CI 1.09–2.55). Smokers had a high risk for two or more prevalent vertebral fractures (OR = 3.18, 95% CI 1.88–5.36). During the average follow‐up of 3.3 years, 209 men sustained an X‐ray‐verified fracture. Incident fracture risk among smokers was calculated with Cox proportional hazard models. Current smokers had an increased risk of all new fractures [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.76, 95% CI 1.19–2.61]; nonvertebral osteoporotic fractures, defined as humerus, radius, pelvis, and hip fractures (HR = 2.14, 95% CI 1.18–3.88); clinical and X‐ray‐verified vertebral fractures (HR = 2.53, 95% CI 1.37–4.65); and hip fractures (HR = 3.16, 95% CI 1.44–6.95). After adjustment for BMD, including other covariates, no significant association between smoking and incident fractures was found. Current tobacco smoking in elderly men is associated with low BMD, prevalent vertebral fractures, and incident fractures, especially vertebral and hip fractures. © 2010 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research     

Predictors of non-spine fracture in elderly men: the MrOS study.

We examined determinants of nonvertebral fracture in elderly men from six U.S. communities followed an average of 4.1 years. Six clinical risk factors predicted fracture risk independent of hip BMD: tricyclic antidepressant use, previous fracture, inability to complete a narrow walk trial, falls in previous year, age > or =80 years, and depressed mood. INTRODUCTION: There are few prospective studies of fracture determinants in men. We examined the associations between a comprehensive set of clinical risk factors and risk of nonspine fracture in older men and whether determinants of fracture risk were independent of total hip BMD. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 5995 men > or =65 years of age were recruited from six communities in the Unites States and followed prospectively for an average of 4.1 years. Baseline assessments of demographic, lifestyle, medical history, functional status, anthropometry, and cognitive, visual, and neuromuscular function were assessed by questionnaire or examination. Triannual mailed questionnaires ascertained incident fracture; reported fractures were adjudicated by physicians using medical records and X-ray reports. Proportional hazards models were used to develop multivariable models, selecting variables and controlling for BMD. RESULTS: Of 5876 men, 4.7% (N = 275) reported an incident nonspine fracture during follow-up (11.46/1000 person-years). Tricyclic antidepressant use (hazard ratio [HR], 2.36; 95% CI, 1.25-4.46), history of fracture at or after age 50 (HR, 2.07; 95% CI, 1.62-2.65), inability to complete a narrow walk trial (HR, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.23-2.34), falls in previous year (HR, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.23-2.05), age > or =80 years (HR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.01-1.76), depressed mood (HR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.00-2.95), and decreased total hip BMD (HR, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.34-1.74) were independently related to increased risk. Compared with having none (48.0% of men), having three or more of the clinical risk factors (4.9% of men) increased fracture risk 5-fold, independent of BMD. Having three or more risk factors and being in the lowest tertile of BMD was associated with a 15-fold greater risk than having no risk factors and being in the highest BMD tertile. CONCLUSIONS: Several clinical risk factors were independently associated with nonspine fractures in elderly men. The combination of multiple risk factors and low BMD was a very powerful indicator of fracture risk.     

Hyperkyphosis,Kyphosis Progression,and Risk of Non‐Spine Fractures in Older Community Dwelling Women: The Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF)

While accentuated kyphosis is associated with osteoporosis, it is unknown whether it increases risk of future fractures, independent of bone mineral density (BMD) and vertebral fractures. We examined the associations of baseline Cobb angle kyphosis and 15 year change in kyphosis with incident non‐spine fractures using data from the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures. A total of 994 predominantly white women, aged 65 or older, were randomly sampled from 9704 original participants to have repeated Cobb angle measurements of kyphosis measured from lateral spine radiographs at baseline and an average of 15 years later. Non‐spine fractures, confirmed by radiographic report, were assessed every 4 months for up to 21.3 years. Compared with women in the lower three quartiles of kyphosis, women with kyphosis greater than 53° (top quartile) had a 50% increased risk of non‐spine fracture (95% CI, 1.10–2.06 after adjusting for BMD, prevalent vertebral fractures, prior history of fractures, and other fracture risk factors. Cobb angle kyphosis progressed an average of 7° (SD = 6.8) over 15 years. Per 1 SD increase in kyphosis change, there was a multivariable adjusted 28% increased risk of fracture (95% CI, 1.06–1.55) that was attenuated by further adjustment for baseline BMD (HR per SD increase in kyphosis change, 1.19; 95% CI 0.99–1.44). Greater kyphosis is associated with an elevated non‐spine fracture risk independent of traditional fracture risk factors in older women. Furthermore, worsening kyphosis is also associated with increased fracture risk that is partially mediated by low baseline BMD that itself is a risk factor for kyphosis progression. These results suggest that randomized controlled fracture intervention trials should consider implementing kyphosis measures to the following: (1) further study kyphosis and kyphosis change as an additional fracture risk factor; and (2) test whether therapies may improve or delay its progression. © 2014 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.     

Mild hyponatremia as a risk factor for fractures: The rotterdam study

Recent studies suggest that mild hyponatremia is associated with fractures, but prospective studies are lacking. We studied whether hyponatremia is associated with fractures, falls, and/or bone mineral density (BMD). A total of 5208 elderly subjects with serum sodium assessed at baseline were included from the prospective population‐based Rotterdam Study. The following data were analyzed: BMD, vertebral fractures (mean follow‐up 6.4 years), nonvertebral fractures (7.4 years), recent falls, comorbidity, medication, and mortality. Hyponatremia was detected in 399 subjects (7.7%, 133.4 ± 2.0 mmol/L). Subjects with hyponatremia were older (73.5 ± 10.3 years versus 70.0 ± 9.0 years, p < .001), had more recent falls (23.8% versus16.4%, p < .01), higher type 2 diabetes mellitus prevalence (22.2% versus 10.3%, p < .001), and more often used diuretics (31.1% versus 15.0%, p < .001). Hyponatremia was not associated with lower BMD but was associated with increased risk of incident nonvertebral fractures [hazard ratio (HR) =1.39, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.11–1.73, p = .004] after adjustment for age, sex, and body mass index. Further adjustments for disability index, use of diuretics, use of psycholeptics, recent falls, and diabetes did not modify results. In the fully adjusted model, subjects with hyponatremia also had increased risk of vertebral fractures at baseline [odds ratio (OR) = 1.78, 95% CI 1.04–3.06, p = .037] but not at follow‐up. Finally, all‐cause mortality was higher in subjects with hyponatremia (HR = 1.21, 95% CI 1.03–1.43, p = .022). It is concluded that mild hyponatremia in the elderly is associated with an increased risk of vertebral fractures and incident nonvertebral fractures but not with BMD. Increased fracture risk in hyponatremia also was independent of recent falls, pointing toward a possible effect on bone quality. © 2011 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research     

Prediction of clinical non-spine fractures in older black and white men and women with volumetric BMD of the spine and areal BMD of the hip: the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study*.

In a prospective study of 1446 black and white adults 70-79 yr of age (average follow-up, 6.4 yr), vertebral TrvBMD from QCT predicted non-spine fracture in black and white women and black men, but it was not a stronger predictor than total hip aBMD from DXA. Hip aBMD predicted non-spine fracture in black men. INTRODUCTION: Areal BMD (aBMD) at multiple skeletal sites predicts clinical non-spine fractures in white and black women and white men. The predictive ability of vertebral trabecular volumetric BMD (TrvBMD) for all types of clinical non-spine fractures has never been tested or compared with hip aBMD. Also, the predictive accuracy of hip aBMD has never been tested prospectively for black men. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We measured vertebral TrvBMD with QCT and hip aBMD with DXA in 1446 elderly black and white adults (70-79 yr) in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study. One hundred fifty-two clinical non-spine fractures were confirmed during an average of 6.4 yr of >95% complete follow-up. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to determine the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% CIs of non-spine fracture per SD reduction in hip aBMD and vertebral TrvBMD. RESULTS: Vertebral TrvBMD and hip aBMD were both associated with risk of non-spine fracture in black and white women and black men. The age-adjusted HR of fracture per SD decrease in BMD was highest in black men (hip aBMD: HR = 2.04, 95% CI = 1.03, 4.04; vertebral TrvBMD: HR = 3.00, 95% CI = 1.29, 7.00) and lowest in white men (hip aBMD: HR = 1.23, 95% CI = 0.85, 1.78; vertebral TrvBMD: HR = 1.06, 95% CI = 0.73, 1.54). Adjusted for age, sex, and race, each SD decrease in hip aBMD was associated with a 1.67-fold (95% CI = 1.36, 2.07) greater risk of fracture, and each SD decrease in vertebral TrvBMD was associated with a 1.47-fold (95% CI = 1.18, 1.82) greater risk. Combining measurements of hip aBMD and vertebral TrvBMD did not improve fracture prediction. CONCLUSIONS: Low BMD measured by either spine QCT or hip DXA predicts non-spine fracture in older black and white women and black men. Vertebral TrvBMD is not a stronger predictor than hip aBMD of non-spine fracture.     

Time since prior fracture is a risk modifier for 10‐year osteoporotic fractures

The objective of this study was to assess the importance of time since prior fracture as a risk factor for future osteoporotic fractures and how it affects 10‐year fracture rates. We identified 39,991 women 45 years of age or older undergoing baseline bone mineral density (BMD) testing (1990–2007) from a regional database that contains dual‐energy X‐ray absorptiometry (DXA) results for Manitoba, Canada. Health service records were used to identify nontrauma ICD‐9‐CM fracture codes preceding DXA, grouped as “major” fractures (n = 5178; hip, spine, forearm, and humerus) or “minor” fractures (n = 3479; ribs, sternum, pelvis, trunk, clavicle, scapula, patella, tibia/fibula, and ankle). Time since prior fracture was coded in years as less than 1, 1 to 5, 5 to 10, and more than 10. Incident fractures (ie, hip, spine, forearm, and humerus) after BMD testing were identified (mean follow‐up 4.2 years, maximum 10 years) and studied in Cox proportional‐hazards models adjusted for age, BMD T‐score, and other covariates. After BMD testing, n = 1749 (4.4%) women experienced an incident fracture. Prior major fracture was a strong risk factor for incident fracture, greatest risk in the first year [hazard ratio (HR) 1.90, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.60–2.25], declining by more than 10 years (HR 1.62, 95% CI 1.25–2.10). Prior minor fracture was a weaker risk factor, greatest in the first year (HR 1.45, 95% CI 1.13–1.87) and no longer significant by 1 to 5 years. Major and minor fractures both showed a time‐dependent decline in importance as risk factors. In conclusion, time since prior fracture modifies future fracture risk, but prior fractures of the hip, spine, forearm, and humerus remain strong risk factors even 10 years later. Fracture risk assessment should emphasize the importance of prior fractures at these sites.     

The Effect of a Screening and Treatment Program for the Prevention of Fractures in Older Women: A Randomized Pragmatic Trial

Population screening for fracture risk may reduce the fracture incidence. In this randomized pragmatic trial, the SALT Osteoporosis Study (SOS), we studied whether screening for fracture risk and subsequent treatment in primary care can reduce fractures compared with usual care. A total of 11,032 women aged 65 to 90 years with ≥1 clinical risk factor for fractures were individually randomized to screening (n = 5575) or usual care (n = 5457). Participants in the screening group underwent a screening program, including bone densitometry and vertebral fracture assessment. Participants with a high 10-year fracture probability (FRAX) or a vertebral fracture were offered treatment with anti-osteoporosis medication by their general practitioner. Incident fractures as reported by questionnaires were verified with medical records. Follow-up was completed by 94% of the participants (mean follow-up = 3.7 years). Of the 5575 participants in the screening group, 1417 (25.4%) had an indication for anti-osteoporosis medication. Screening and subsequent treatment had no statistically significant effect on the primary outcome fracture (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.97; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.87–1.08), nor on the secondary outcomes osteoporotic fractures (HR = 0.91; 95% CI 0.81–1.03), major osteoporotic fractures (HR = 0.91; 95% CI 0.80–1.04), hip fractures (HR = 0.91; 95% CI 0.71–1.15), falls (odds ratio [OR] = 0.91; 95% CI 0.72–1.15), or mortality (HR = 1.03; 95% CI 0.91–1.17). Post hoc explorative finding suggested that screening might be most effective after a recent fracture (HR = 0.65; 95% CI 0.44–0.96 for major osteoporotic fractures and HR = 0.38; 95% CI 0.18–0.79 for hip fractures). The results of this study might have been compromised by nonparticipation and medication nonadherence in the screening group. Overall, this study does not provide sufficient indications to consider screening for fracture prevention. However, we cannot exclude its clinical relevance to reduce (major) osteoporotic fractures and hip fractures because of the relatively small number of women with a treatment indication in the intervention group. © 2019 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Prevalent Vertebral Fractures in Black Women and White Women

Vertebral fractures are the most common osteoporotic fracture. Hip and clinical fractures are less common in black women, but there is little information on vertebral fractures. We studied 7860 white and 472 black women ≥65 yr of age enrolled in the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures. Prevalent vertebral fractures were identified from lateral spine radiographs using vertebral morphometry and defined if any vertebral height ratio was >3 SD below race‐specific means for each vertebral level. Information on risk factors was obtained by questionnaire or examination. Lumbar spine, total hip, and femoral neck BMD and BMC were measured by DXA. The prevalence of vertebral fractures was 10.6% in black and 19.1% in white women. In age‐adjusted logistic regression models, a 1 SD decrease in femoral neck BMD was associated with 47% increased odds of fracture in black women (OR = 1.47; 95% CI, 1.12–1.94) and 80% increased odds in white women (OR = 1.80; 95% CI, 1.68–1.94; interaction p = 0.14). The overall lower odds of fracture among black women compared with white women was independent of femoral neck BMD and other risk factors (OR = 0.51; 95% CI, 0.37–0.72). However, the prevalence of vertebral fractures increased with increasing number of risk factors in both groups. The prevalence of vertebral fractures is lower in black compared with white women but increases with age, low BMD, and number of risk factors.     

Performance of FRAX in Women with Breast Cancer Initiating Aromatase Inhibitor Therapy: A Registry-Based Cohort Study

FRAX was developed to predict 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) and hip fracture in the general population. Aromatase inhibitors (AI) used in breast cancer induce loss in bone mineral density (BMD) and are reported to increase fracture risk. AI exposure is not a direct input to FRAX but is captured under “secondary osteoporosis”. To inform use of FRAX in women treated with AI, we used a population-based registry for the Province of Manitoba, Canada, to identify women aged ≥40 years initiating AI for breast cancer with at least 12 months’ AI exposure (n = 1775), women with breast cancer not receiving AI (n = 1016), and women from the general population (n = 34,205). Among AI users, fracture probability estimated without BMD (AI use coded as secondary osteoporosis) significantly overestimated risk (10-year observed/predicted ratio 0.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.45–0.68; 10-year hip fracture observed/predicted ratio 0.33, 95% CI 0.18–0.49). However, when BMD was included in the fracture probability, there was no significant difference between observed and predicted fracture risk. In Cox proportional hazards models, FRAX stratified risk of MOF, hip, and any fracture equally well in all subgroups (p-interaction >0.1). When adjusted for FRAX score without BMD, with AI use coded as secondary osteoporosis, AI users were at significantly lower risk for MOF (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.78, 95% CI 0.64–0.95), hip fracture (HR = 0.46, 95% CI 0.29–0.73) and any fracture (HR = 0.75, 95% CI 0.63–0.89). AI use was no longer significantly associated with fractures when AI use was not entered as secondary osteoporosis in FRAX without BMD or when BMD was included in the FRAX calculation. In conclusion, FRAX scores stratify fracture risk equally well in women receiving AI therapy as in non-users, but including secondary osteoporosis as a risk factor for AI users overestimates fracture risk. Our results call this practice into question. © 2019 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.     

Prediction of new clinical vertebral fractures in elderly men using finite element analysis of CT scans

Vertebral strength, as estimated by finite element analysis of computed tomography (CT) scans, has not yet been compared against areal bone mineral density (BMD) by dual‐energy X‐ray absorptiometry (DXA) for prospectively assessing the risk of new clinical vertebral fractures. To do so, we conducted a case‐cohort analysis of 306 men aged 65 years and older, which included 63 men who developed new clinically‐identified vertebral fractures and 243 men who did not, all observed over an average of 6.5 years. Nonlinear finite element analysis was performed on the baseline CT scans, blinded to fracture status, to estimate L1 vertebral compressive strength and a load‐to‐strength ratio. Volumetric BMD by quantitative CT and areal BMD by DXA were also evaluated. We found that, for the risk of new clinical vertebral fracture, the age‐adjusted hazard ratio per standard deviation change for areal BMD (3.2; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.0–5.2) was significantly lower (p < 0.005) than for strength (7.2; 95% CI, 3.6–14.1), numerically lower than for volumetric BMD (5.7; 95% CI, 3.1–10.3), and similar for the load‐to‐strength ratio (3.0; 95% CI, 2.1–4.3). After also adjusting for race, body mass index (BMI), clinical center, and areal BMD, all these hazard ratios remained highly statistically significant, particularly those for strength (8.5; 95% CI, 3.6–20.1) and volumetric BMD (9.4; 95% CI, 4.1–21.6). The area‐under‐the‐curve for areal BMD (AUC = 0.76) was significantly lower than for strength (AUC = 0.83, p = 0.02), volumetric BMD (AUC = 0.82, p = 0.05), and the load‐to‐strength ratio (AUC = 0.82, p = 0.05). We conclude that, compared to areal BMD by DXA, vertebral compressive strength and volumetric BMD consistently improved vertebral fracture risk assessment in this cohort of elderly men. © 2012 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.     

Height loss in older women: Risk of hip fracture and mortality independent of vertebral fractures

We examined if height loss in older women predicts risk of hip fractures, other nonspine fractures, and mortality, and whether this risk is independent of both vertebral fractures (VFx) and bone mineral density (BMD) by dual‐energy X‐ray absorptiometry. Among 3124 women age 65 and older in the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures, we assessed the association with measured height change between year 0 (1986–1988) and year 15 (2002–2004) and subsequent risk of radiologically confirmed hip fractures, other nonspine fractures, and mortality assessed via death certificates. Follow‐up occurred every 4 months for fractures and vital status (>95% contacts complete). Cox proportional hazards models assessed risk of hip fracture, nonspine fracture, and mortality over a mean of 5 years after height change was assessed (ie, after final height measurement). After adjustment for VFx, BMD, and other potential covariates, height loss >5 cm was associated with a marked increased risk of hip fracture [hazard ratio (HR) 1.50, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.06, 2.12], nonspine fracture (HR 1.48; 95% CI 1.20, 1.83), and mortality (1.45; 95% CI 1.21, 1.73). Although primary analyses were a subset of 3124 survivors healthy enough to return for a year 15 height measurement, a sensitivity analysis in the entire cohort (n = 9677) using initial height in earlier adulthood [self‐reported height at age 25 (?40 years) to measured height age >65 years (Year 0)] demonstrated consistent results. Height loss >5 cm (2″) in older women was associated with a nearly 50% increased risk of hip fracture, nonspine fracture, and mortality—independent of incident VFx and BMD. © 2012 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research     

Relationship of Blood Lead Levels to Incident Nonspine Fractures and Falls in Older Women: The Study of Osteoporotic Fractures

Lead is stored in the skeleton and can serve as an endogenous source for many years. Lead may influence the risk of fracture, through direct effects on bone strength or indirectly by disturbing neuromuscular function and increasing the risk of falls. The objective of this analysis is to test the hypothesis that women with higher blood lead levels experience higher rates of falls and fracture. This was a prospective cohort study of 533 women 65–87 yr of age enrolled in the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures at two U.S. research centers (Baltimore, MD; Monongahela Valley, PA) from 1986 to 1988. Blood lead levels (in μg/dl) were measured in 1990–1991 by atomic absorption spectrophotometry and classified as “low” (≤3; lower 15th percentile, referent); “medium” (4–7); or “high” (≥8; upper 15th percentile). Total hip BMD was measured by DXA twice, 3.55 yr apart. Information on falls was collected every 4 mo for 4 yr. Incident nonspine fractures were identified and confirmed over 10 yr. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% CI of fracture. Generalized estimating equations were used to calculate the incident rate ratio of falls (95% CI). The mean blood lead level was 5.3 ± 2.3 (SD) μg/dl (range, 1–21 μg/dl). Baseline BMD was 7% lower in total hip and 5% lower in femoral neck in the highest compared with lowest blood lead group (p < 0.02). Hip bone loss tended to be greater in the high lead group, but differences were not significant. In multivariable adjusted models, women with high blood lead levels had an increased risk of nonspine fracture (HR = 2.50; 95% CI = 1.25, 5.03; p trend = 0.016) and higher risk of falls (incident rate ratio = 1.62; 95% CI = 1.07, 2.45; p trend = 0.014) compared with women with lowest lead level. Blood lead levels are associated with an increased risk of falls and fractures, extending the negative health consequences of lead to include osteoporotic fractures.