指数平滑模型在麻疹发病预测中的应用

目的：探讨指数平滑模型在麻疹发病预测方面中应用。方法通过国家疾病报告管理系统收集医疗机构2004~2012年麻疹月发病数资料。用Eviews6.0软件建立流感和麻疹月发病数的指数平滑预测模型。结果通过模型诊断器建议采用指数平滑模型预测效果较好,其R2=0.856,其实际值与预测值相吻合程度高,说明采用指数平滑模型能很好的预测麻疹。结论指数平滑模型法适用于各种疾病时间序列分析,但对不同疾病的预测效果存在差异,当疾病发病数据趋于平稳时预测效果较好。     

指数平滑法数学模型的参数估计和预测

建立二次指数平滑法数学模型,对模型中的参数进行了估计和检验且对模型进行了预测。     

试用三次指数平滑法预测传染病发病率

将 1994～ 1997年伤寒发病率数据消除季节变动后 ,运用三次指数平滑法对海安县 1998年伤寒发病率进行预测 ,取得了较好的预测效果 ,其总的相对误差为 -5 .10 %。     

肿瘤科住院人数的时间序列预测及动态分析

目的:掌握肿瘤科住院人数的季节变化规律,验证时间序列法在预测肿瘤科住院人数中的科学性和实用性,为及时、合理安排肿瘤病人入院,并得到及时的诊断和治疗提供科学依据。方法:以某院2002~2004年肿瘤科住院人数为依据,引用时间序列法从理论上预测2005年肿瘤科住院人数,并对3年来的肿瘤病人收治情况进行动态分析。结果:将预测值与实际完成值进行比较,结果与实际情况基本相符,显示出肿瘤科住院人数呈逐年上升趋势。结论:时间序列法预测肿瘤科住院人数结果准确、可靠,它弥补了其它预测方法的不足,说明使用时间序列法进行肿瘤科住院人数的预测,具有较强的科学性和适用性。     

基于遗传算法优化支持向量机的网络流量预测

介绍了支持向量机用于时间序列预测的理论基础和遗传算法优化支持向量机参数的方法,首次把遗传算法优化参数支持向量机应用于两组实际网络流量的预测,并与BP神经网络和RBF神经网络方法进行了比较.结果表明:支持向量机相比较BP神经网络和RBF神经网络对网络流量的预测结果精度更高、性能更好.利用支持向量机预测网络流量是一种可行、有效的方法.     

我国吸毒人数的灰色预测

预测是人们对未来事物或不确定性事件的行为与状态做出的主观判断.社会实践证明,社会的发展,要求人们设法使工作具有预见性,对纷纭复杂的现实问题,提出科学的预测和对策.目前的预测方法很多,常用的有专家预测方法(如头脑风暴法),趋势外推法,指数平滑法,类推法,投入产出分析法,回归分析法,生长曲线法和马尔可夫链法等.从类型上分,这些方法可分为统计型、递推型和连续型,灰色预测法属于连续型.预测方法也可分为直观型预测法、时间预测法和计量模型法,这时灰色预测法属于时间预测法,并兼有直观型预测法和计量模型法的一些特点.传统的预测方法要求预测用的数据资料样本量大(一般要求50个左右),服从特殊的统计分布,按相同的发展变化规律变化.     

某院5年(2009～2013)住院人次季节变动规律与趋势分析

目的:用某院2009~2013年的数据资料,找出住院人次变化规律,进行分析和预测,以便领导科学管理。方法:利用住院相关医疗指标统计表,采用时间序列数据季节指数分析法和季节型趋势预测技术;利用Excel对数据进行处理。结果:某院住院人次存在季节性变动和长期增长趋势规律。结论:用这一规律对未来进行预测,可以为领导进行近期管理和远期规划提供科学依据。     

进口检品数量的预测分析研究

目的：根据历史数据对未来3年的进口检品数量进行预测,为领导决策和业务规划提供依据。方法：采用目前较为成熟的4种预测分析模型：三次指数平滑预测法、灰色模型、一元线性回归组合预测法、差分自回归移动平均（以下简称ARIMA）模型,选择适当参数进行预测和方法评价。结果：预测2016年、2017年、2018年的进口数量分别为30544件（30327~31730件）、32844件（32616~34097件）、35144件（34905~36465件）。结论：4种分析模型中,ARIMA模型对2011年至2015年的预测结果与实际数据的偏差相对最小,预测准确度相对较高。     

时间序列模型在预测临床血液需求量中的应用

目的:应用时间序列模型对临床血液需求量进行预测。方法:利用时间序列的复合模型对2005~2008年的数据建模,预测2008年和2009年各季节临床血液需求量,并将2008年预测值与实际值比较,检验模型的预测能力。结果:对所分析的季节性时间序列建立了Y=T.S.C模型,平均预测相对误差为1.0%。结论:时间序列的复合模型能较好的分析临床血液需求量同季节的关系,并有较强的预测能力,从而为血液中心的库存量预测提供了有效的工具。     

用血压平滑指数对拉西地平与替米沙坦降压比较的评价

目的观察拉西地平与替米沙坦对高血压病2级的降压疗效。方法对83例高血压病2级患者患者按用药分组进行24h动态检测,分别计算血压平滑指数及血压变异性指数等指标,并进行t检验和相关分析。结果治疗组经治疗后平均血压可达到正常范围,其收缩压和舒张压的平滑指数明显高于对照组,血压变异性低于对照组,两组比较有显著性差异。结论平滑指数(SI)可反映血压变异性(BPV)差异,拉西地平降压效果好并有平稳降压的特征。     

Using time series analysis to forecast the health-related quality of life of post-menopausal women with non-metastatic ER+ breast cancer: A tutorial and case study

BackgroundTime series models are widely used forecasting techniques in health care for long time series and are typically built in commercial statistical packages. However, for short time series data, such as health-related quality of life (HRQoL), guidance on how to select and use appropriate time series models is lacking. This tutorial provides a step-by-step guide adopting a time series analysis framework for HRQoL forecasting.ObjectiveWe walk through a case study examining the forecasting of the effects of adjuvant endocrine therapy on the HRQoL of post-menopausal women with non-metastatic ER + breast cancer using data from the HRQoL sub-protocol of the Tamoxifen arm of the Arimidex, tamoxifen, alone or in combination (ATAC) trial.MethodsThe forecasting of HRQoL consists of four steps: 1) data extraction and accuracy check, 2) forecasting horizon definition and identification of data pattern, 3) forecasting model identification and fitting using five forecasting approaches appropriate for short time series ((i) double exponential smoothing, (ii) double moving average, (iii) fuzzy forecasting, (iv) grey forecasting, and (v) Volterra series), 4) forecasting model selection. A user-friendly visual basic for applications (VBA) Excel add-in is made available to interested users to facilitate the application of the tutorial.ResultsThe Grey method and Volterra series appeared to be good candidates to forecast the effects of adjuvant endocrine therapy on the HRQoL of post-menopausal women with non-metastatic ER + breast cancer enrolled in the ATAC trial.ConclusionIt is feasible to forecast the effects of treatments on HRQOL even when the time series is short.     

A new antibiotic SF-2185 produced by Dactylosporangium. I. Taxonomy, fermentation and biological properties

A new antibiotic SF-2185 was found active against plant pathogen, particularly the causal organisms of cucumber downy mildew and rice blast. The producing organism, strain SF-2185, is a novel actinomycete and has been identified as Dactylosporangium aurantiacum subsp. gifuense.     

The metabolism of fungicides

Of the three main groups of pesticides (insecticides, fungicides and herbicides), fungicides have probably the longest history, dating back to the accidental discovery in 1882 of Bordeaux mixture and the value of copper-based preparations for the control of vine downy mildew disease. In more recent times a wide range of fungicides have become available, including compounds with not only protectant but systemic activity, and total world-wide sales in 1983 were estimated at 2.8 billion dollars. This review attempts to summarize the current state of knowledge as it relates to the metabolism in animals and plants of examples of several of the major fungicide groups. Specifically the metabolism of maneb, mancozeb, zineb, captan, chlorothalonil, benomyl, triadimefon, triadimenol and cymoxanil are discussed.     

Khatmiamycin, a motility inhibitor and zoosporicide against the grapevine downy mildew pathogen Plasmopara viticola from Streptomyces sp. ANK313

In the course of our screening for anti-peronosporomycetal agents, we isolated a new compound khatmiamycin (1), together with five known metabolites, GTRI-02 (3), 4-ethyl-5-methyl-heptanamide (4), aloesaponarin II (5), LL-C10037α (6) and LL-C10037β (7) from the culture broth of a terrestrial Streptomyces sp. ANK313. The structures of these metabolites were assigned on the basis of their spectroscopic data. Khatmiamycin (1) exhibited potent motility inhibitory (100%) and lytic (83±7%) activities against zoospores of the grapevine downy mildew pathogen Plasmopara viticola at 10?μg?ml(-1), followed by compounds 5 (MIC 25?μg?ml(-1)), 7, 6, 3 in the order of decreasing activity. Khatmiamycin (1) also showed potent antibacterial activity against Staphylococcus aureus and Streptomyces viridochromogenes (Tü57) by causing inhibition zones of 11 and 14?mm diameter, respectively, at the dose of 40?μg per disk. This is the first report on motility inhibitory and lytic activities of metabolites from a terrestrial Streptomyces species against the zoospores of downy mildew pathogen P. viticola.     

The metabolism of fungicides

1. Of the three main groups of pesticides (insecticides, fungicides and herbicides), fungicides have probably the longest history, dating back to the accidental discovery in 1882 of Bordeaux mixture and the value of copper-based preparations for the control of vine downy mildew disease.

2. In more recent times a wide range of fungicides have become available, including compounds with not only protectant but systemic activity, and total world-wide sales in 1983 were estimated at 2.8 billion dollars.

3. This review attempts to summarize the current state of knowledge as it relates to the metabolism in animals and plants of examples of several of the major fungicide groups.

4. Specifically the metabolism of maneb, mancozeb, zineb, captan, chlorothalonil, benomyl, triadimefon, triadimenol and cymoxanil are discussed.     

梅花参的化学成分研究

目的研究梅花参体内的化学成分。方法利用DA101大孔树脂，硅胶，ODS Rp C-18反相硅胶，Sephadex LH-20柱色谱和HPLC方法进行分离纯化．根据所得化舍物的理化性质和波谱与质谱数据（尤其是2D-NMR和ESI—MS技术）．鉴定其结构。结果得到4个化合物．分别鉴定为：holothuriaA（1）,胸腺嘧啶（2），尿嘧啶（3），胆甾醇（4）。结论4个化舍物均为首次从该种动物中得到。     

海参药材质量标准提升的研究

目的 制定山东省地方习用药材海参的质量标准。方法 参照《中国药典》（2020版）相关方法对海参药材进行性状和薄层色谱（TLC）鉴别研究,测定了水分、酸不溶性灰分及浸出物的含量;通过硫酸苯酚法以葡萄糖为对照品测定海参多糖的含量;采用高效液相色谱法（HPLC）对海参药材的特征图谱进行研究。结果 不同批次海参药材的性状特征较一致;TLC斑点清晰,重复性好;海参药材中水分的质量分数为8.5% ~ 9.5%,酸不溶性灰分的质量分数为0.1% ~ 0.2%,浸出物的质量分数范围为33.6% ~ 51.7%;以葡萄糖计海参多糖的质量分数范围为0.52% ~ 0.85%;供试品色谱图中呈现的5个特征峰与对照药材参照物色谱图中的5个特征峰的保留时间相对应。结论 本研究建立的定性及定量方法操作简便、准确、稳定。可用于海参药材的质量控制。     

国内外临床路径效果评价研究综述

了解国内外临床路径效果评价研究进展,为今后开展临床路径效果评价研究提供参考。方法：通过文献研究,总结目前国内外临床路径效果评价研究所使用的评价方法、评价指标等内容。结果：国内外研究普遍采用前后对照法或平行对照法,一部分研究采用meta分析进行效果评价;统计学上,大部分研究仅对结果进行t检验,部分研究使用回归、间断时间序列、双重差分等方法。评价指标上,多采用效率指标、效果指标、卫生经济学指标和工作量指标等4大类指标。结论：目前,国内外已经有较为成熟的临床路径效果评价体系,在评价方法和评价指标的选取上需要针对研究的问题灵活选择。     

灰色数列预测模型在煤工尘肺预测中的应用

本文利用灰色数列预测模型对煤工尘肺年度患病人数进行了预测,同时与指数曲线模型和二次抛物线模型的预测效果进行了比较。结果表明:灰色数列预测模型外推性预测效果优于另外二种模型。     

Predictions of the antimalarial activity of arylamidinoureas

1. Regression equations were calculated relating the observed antimalarial potencies of arylamidinoureas to their predicted physicochemical properties.2. A two-parameter equation was used to forecast the antimalarial activity of more arylamidinoureas.3. Thirteen compounds of the predicted type were synthesized, and their observed antimalarial potencies compared with the forecasts.