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1.
Background
In the last 20 years, Brazil has undergone dramatic changes in terms of socioeconomic development and health care. In the first decade of the 2000s, the Ministry of Health (MoH) developed a series of programs focused on reducing infant mortality, including the Family Health Program as a national policy for primary care. In this paper, we propose a method to correct underreporting of deaths and live births. After vital statistics are corrected, infant mortality trends are analyzed for the period 2000–2010 by macro-geographical region.Methods
A proactive search of live births and deaths was carried out in the Amazon and Northeast regions in 2010 to find vital events that occurred in 2008 and were not reported to the Ministry of Health. The probabilistic sample of 133 municipalities was stratified by adequacy of vital information reporting. For each municipality, the adequacy analysis was based on the reported age-standardized mortality rate per 1,000 population and the ratio between reported and estimated live births. Correction factors were estimated by strata based on additional vital events found in the proactive search. The procedure was generalized to correct municipal vital statistics for the period 2000–2010.Results
In the proactive search, 35% of non-reported deaths were found within the health system (hospitals and other health establishments), but 28% were found in non-official sources, like illegal cemeteries. In areas of extreme poverty and unreliable vital information, the estimated completeness of infant death reporting was only 33%. After correction of vital information, the estimated infant mortality rate decreased from 26.1 in 2000 to 16.0 in 2010, with an annual rate of decrease of 4.7%, greater than the required rate to achieve the Millennium Development Goal. Among Brazilian regions, the Northeast showed the largest decrease, from 38.4 to 20.1 per 1,000 live births.Conclusions
The proactive search for vital events was shown to be a good strategy both in terms of understanding local irregularities and for correcting vital statistics. The methodology could be applied in other countries to routinely assess the pattern and extent of birth and death under-registration in order to improve the utility of these data to inform health policies.2.
Daniela Fecht Lea Fortunato David Morley Anna L. Hansell John Gulliver 《Environmental health : a global access science source》2016,15(Z1):S34
Background
Seventy-five percent of the population in Europe live in urban areas and analysing the effects of urban form on the health of the urban population is of great public health interest. Not much is known, however, on the effects of urban form on the health of city dwellers. This study uses a novel approach to investigate whether associations exist between different measures of urban form and mortality risks in cities in England.Methods
We conducted an ecological, cross-sectional study for urban areas in England with more than 100,000 residents (n?=?50) and included all registered premature deaths (<65 years) between 1st January 2002 and 31st December 2009. To describe and categorise urban form we quantified the distribution and density of population, land cover and transport networks and measures of geographical characteristics. We used Poisson regression models to examine associations between the measures of urban form and age-standardised risks of deaths from all causes, cardiovascular disease, and traffic accidents after adjustment for socioeconomic status and smoking. Analysis was stratified by gender to explore differential associations between females and males.Results
There were a total of 200,200 premature deaths during the study period (Females: 37 %; Males: 63 %). Transport network patterns were associated with overall and cardiovascular mortality rates in cities. We saw 12 % higher mortality risk after adjustment in cities with high junction density compared to cities with low density [Females: RR 1.12 (95 % CI 1.10 – 1.15); Males: RR 1.12 (95 % CI 1.10–1.14)]; the risk was slightly higher for cardiovascular mortality [Females: RR 1.16 (95 % CI 1.10 – 1.22); Males: RR 1.12 (95 % CI 1.09 – 1.16)]. Associations between mortality and population patterns were of similar magnitude [Females: RR 1.10 (95 % CI 1.09 – 1.13); Males: RR 1.09 (95 % CI 1.07–1.10)]; associations between mortality and land cover patterns were inconclusive.Conclusions
We found an association between transport patterns and risk of premature mortality. Associations between urban form and mortality observed in this study suggest that characteristics of city structure might have negative effects on the overall health of urban communities. Future urban planning and regeneration strategies can benefit from such knowledge to promote a healthy living environment for an increasing urban population.3.
Background
It is widely recognized that there are multiple risk factors for early-life mortality. In practice most interventions to curb early-life mortality target births based on a single risk factor, such as poverty. However, most premature deaths are not from the targeted group. Thus interventions target many births that are at not at high risk and miss many births at high risk.Methods
Using data from the second wave of Demographic and Health Surveys from India and a hierarchical Bayesian model, we estimate infant mortality risk for 73.320 infants in India as a function of 4 risk factors. We show how this information can be used to improve program targeting. We compare our novel approach against common programs that target groups based on a single risk factor.Results
A conventional approach that targets mothers in the lowest quintile of income correctly identifies only 30% of infant deaths. By contrast, using four risk factors simultaneously we identify a group of births of the same size that includes 57% of all deaths. Using the 2012 census to translate these percentages into numbers, there were 25.642.200 births in 2012 and 4.4% died before the age of one. Our approach correctly identifies 643.106 of 1.128.257 infant deaths while poverty only identifies 338.477 infant deaths.Conclusion
Our approach considerably improves program targeting by identifying more infant deaths than the usual approach that targets births based on a single risk factor. This leads to more efficient program targeting. This is particularly useful in developing countries, where resources are lacking and needs are high.4.
Kazutoshi Nakamura Kaori Kitamura Yumi Watanabe Hiroko Shinoda Hisami Sato Toshiyuki Someya 《Environmental health and preventive medicine》2016,21(6):422-429
Background
This study aimed to examine rural–urban differences in the prevalence of cognitive impairment in Japan.Methods
We targeted 592 residents aged 65 years and older who did not use long-term care insurance services in one rural and two urban areas in Ojiya City, Japan. Of these, 537 (90.7 %) participated in the study. The revised Hasegawa’s dementia scale (HDS-R) was used to assess cognitive function, and cognitive impairment was defined as a HDS-R score ≤20. Lifestyle information was obtained through interviews. The prevalence of cognitive impairment was compared according to the levels of predictor variables by odds ratios (ORs) calculated by a logistic regression analysis.Results
Mean age of participants was 75.7 years (SD 7.0). The prevalence of cognitive impairment was 20/239 (8.4 %) in the rural area and 6/298 (2.0 %) in the urban areas, for a total of 26/537 (4.8 %) overall. Men tended to have a higher prevalence of cognitive impairment (P = 0.0628), and age was associated with cognitive impairment (P for trend <0.0001). The rural area had a significantly higher prevalence of cognitive impairment (age- and sex-adjusted OR = 4.04, 95 % CI: 1.54–10.62) than urban areas. This difference was significant after adjusting for other lifestyle factors.Conclusions
The prevalence of cognitive impairment was higher in the rural area relative to urban areas in Ojiya city. This regional difference suggests the existence of potentially modifiable factors other than lifestyle in relation to cognitive impairment.5.
Chengyi Han Ming Zhang Xinping Luo Chongjian Wang Junmei Zhou Lu Zhang Yongcheng Ren Bingyuan Wang Xiangyu Yang Hongyan Zhang Yang Zhao Yanxia Shen Dongting Wu Chao Pang Lei Yin Tianping Feng Dongsheng Hu Jingzhi Zhao 《Zeitschrift fur Gesundheitswissenschaften》2017,25(1):95-101
Aim
Although previous studies have reported an association between resting heart rate (RHR) and cancer mortality, the association is contradictory. The relationship between RHR and disease-specific mortality has not been explored in the Chinese population. We examined this relationship in a rural adult Chinese population from a cohort study with a 6-year follow-up.Subjects and methods
The RHR of a cohort of 20,069 participants was measured between July–August of 2007 and July–August of 2008, and 17,151 participants (85.5 %) were followed up between July–August of 2013 and July –October of 2014. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95 % confidence intervals (95 % CIs) for deaths due to all causes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), stroke, cancer, and other causes in RHR groups.Results
Males and females with RHR?≥?90 showed the highest all-cause mortality (33,27 and 1,226/100,000 person-years) and adjusted HR for all-cause deaths—2.20 (95 % CI 1.64–2.93) and 1.99 (1.43–2.77). A similar association was observed for deaths due to CVD, stroke and cancer (except for females), and other causes of mortality.Conclusions
Elevated RHR may be an independent marker of all-cause, CVD and other causes of death for both sexes and stroke and cancer deaths for males.6.
Mihoko Takahashi 《Environmental health and preventive medicine》2016,21(6):501-522
Objectives
Anomalous variations in live births on February 29/March 1, April 1/April 2 and the days before the New Year holidays/New Year holidays have been reported in Japan. The distribution of live births was investigated on those days and whether or not such dates were selected due to obstetric intervention is discussed.Methods
Using a method similar to the \(\overline{\text{X}}\)–R control chart, anomalous variations in the hourly number of live births were detected. The number of unusual births was estimated.Results
The number of live births at 13:00–16:59 hours was significantly higher from December 24 to 28 and significantly lower from December 29–January 3, February 29, and April 1, especially on weekdays. In hospitals, the increases from 9:00–12:59 and 13:00–16:59 hours from December 24 to 27 were approximately 10 and 25 %, respectively, of the expected births for those times in the mid-1980s; thereafter, the rates were 30 and 35 %. After 2000, the child births at 13:00–16:59 hours on February 29 and April 1 decreased by approximately 35 % in hospitals and clinics. The numbers of live births at 0:00–0:59 hours were significantly higher on March 1 and April 2 until 2001.Conclusion
Anomalous variations at 0:00–0:59 hours may be associated with fictitious reporting on birth certificates. Anomalous variations from 13:00 to 16:59 hours on weekdays suggest that many individuals may avoid obstetric intervention on February 29 and April 1 and that the number of higher-risk deliveries may significantly increase in the daytime on the days before the New Year holidays due to obstetric intervention for institutional reasons.7.
Eyob Zere Prosper Tumusiime Oladapo Walker Joses Kirigia Chris Mwikisa Thomas Mbeeli 《International journal for equity in health》2010,9(1):16
Background
Inequities in the utilization of maternal health services impede progress towards the MDG 5 target of reducing the maternal mortality ratio by three quarters, between 1990 and 2015. In Namibia, despite increasing investments in the health sector, the maternal mortality ratio has increased from 271 per 100,000 live births in the period 1991-2000 to 449 per 100,000 live births in 1998-2007. Monitoring equity in the use of maternal health services is important to target scarce resources to those with more need and expedite the progress towards the MDG 5 target. The objective of this study is to measure socio-economic inequalities in access to maternal health services and propose recommendations relevant for policy and planning.Methods
Data from the Namibia Demographic and Health Survey 2006-07 are analyzed for inequities in the utilization of maternal health. In measuring the inequities, rate-ratios, concentration curves and concentration indices are used.Results
Regions with relatively high human development index have the highest rates of delivery by skilled health service providers. The rate of caesarean section in women with post secondary education is about seven times that of women with no education. Women in urban areas are delivered by skilled providers 30% more than their rural counterparts. The rich use the public health facilities 30% more than the poor for child delivery.Conclusion
Most of the indicators such as delivery by trained health providers, delivery by caesarean section and postnatal care show inequities favoring the most educated, urban areas, regions with high human development indices and the wealthy. In the presence of inequities, it is difficult to achieve a significant reduction in the maternal mortality ratio needed to realize the MDG 5 targets so long as a large segment of society has inadequate access to essential maternal health services and other basic social services. Addressing inequities in access to maternal health services should not only be seen as a health systems issue. The social determinants of health have to be tackled through multi-sectoral approaches in line with the principles of Primary Health Care and the recommendations of the Commission on Social Determinants of Health.8.
Gezahegn Tesfaye Deborah Loxton Catherine Chojenta Nega Assefa Roger Smith 《BMC women's health》2018,18(1):198
Background
Despite efforts at curbing maternal morbidity and mortality, developing countries are still burdened with high rates of maternal morbidity and mortality. Ethiopia is not an exception and has one of the world’s highest rates of maternal deaths. Reducing the huge burden of maternal mortality remains the single most serious challenge in Ethiopia. There is a paucity of information with regards to the local level magnitude and causes of maternal mortality. We assessed the magnitude, trends and causes of maternal mortality using surveillance data from the Kersa Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS), in Eastern Ethiopia.Method
The analysis used surveillance data extracted from the Kersa HDSS database for the duration of 2008 to 2014. Data on maternal deaths and live births during the seven year period were used to determine the maternal mortality ratio in the study. The data were mainly extracted from a verbal autopsy database. The sample was comprised of all reproductive aged women who died during pregnancy, childbirth or 42?days after delivery. Chi-squared test for linear trend was used to examine the significance of change in rates over time.Results
Out of the total 311 deaths of reproductive aged women during the study period, 72 (23.2%) died during pregnancy or within 42?days of delivery. The overall estimated maternal mortality ratio was 324 per 100,000 live births (95% CI: 256, 384). The observed maternal mortality ratio has shown a declining trend over the seven years period though there is no statistical significance for the reduction (χ2?=?0.56, P?=?0.57). The estimated pregnancy related mortality ratio was 543 per 100,000 live births (95% CI: 437, 663). Out of those who died due to pregnancy and related causes, only 26% attended at least one antenatal care service. The most common cause of maternal death was postpartum haemorrhage (46.5%) followed by hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (16.3%).Conclusion
The magnitude of maternal mortality is considerably high but has shown a decreasing trend. Community-based initiatives that aim to improve maternal health should be strengthened further to reduce the prevailing maternal mortality. Targeted information education and communication should be provided.9.
Mathias Lerch Adrian Spoerri Domantas Jasilionis Francisco Viciana Fernandèz 《Population health metrics》2017,15(1):26
Background
Reliable estimates of mortality according to socioeconomic status play a crucial role in informing the policy debate about social inequality, social cohesion, and exclusion as well as about the reform of pension systems. Linked mortality data have become a gold standard for monitoring socioeconomic differentials in survival. Several approaches have been proposed to assess the quality of the linkage, in order to avoid the misclassification of deaths according to socioeconomic status. However, the plausibility of mortality estimates has never been scrutinized from a demographic perspective, and the potential problems with the quality of the data on the at-risk populations have been overlooked.Methods
Using indirect demographic estimation (i.e., the synthetic extinct generation method), we analyze the plausibility of old-age mortality estimates according to educational attainment in four European data contexts with different quality issues: deterministic and probabilistic linkage of deaths, as well as differences in the methodology of the collection of educational data. We evaluate whether the at-risk population according to educational attainment is misclassified and/or misestimated, correct these biases, and estimate the education-specific linkage rates of deaths.Results
The results confirm a good linkage of death records within different educational strata, even when probabilistic matching is used. The main biases in mortality estimates concern the classification and estimation of the person-years of exposure according to educational attainment. Changes in the census questions about educational attainment led to inconsistent information over time, which misclassified the at-risk population. Sample censuses also misestimated the at-risk populations according to educational attainment.Conclusion
The synthetic extinct generation method can be recommended for quality assessments of linked data because it is capable not only of quantifying linkage precision, but also of tracking problems in the population data. Rather than focusing only on the quality of the linkage, more attention should be directed towards the quality of the self-reported socioeconomic status at censuses, as well as towards the accurate estimation of the at-risk populations.10.
Background
The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) estimates the effects of maternal and child health interventions on mortality rates and the number of deaths. The family planning module in Spectrum interacts with LiST by providing estimates of the effects of scaling up family planning use on the number of live births, miscarriages, abortions, and stillbirths.Methods
We use the proximate determinants of fertility framework to estimate the effects of changes in contraceptive use, proportion married, postpartum insusceptibility, abortion and sterility on the total fertility rate. We extend this framework to estimate the number of intended and unintended pregnancies and the resulting live births, abortions, stillbirths, and miscarriages.Results
We apply the model to four countries (Mali, Kenya, Indonesia, and Ukraine) to demonstrate possible trends with a range of family planning and fertility levels. In high-fertility countries, such as Mali, increases in contraceptive use will partially compensate for the increasing number of women of reproductive age to reduce the annual increases in pregnancies and births. Most unintended pregnancies occur to women defined as having unmet need for contraception. In low-fertility countries, increases in contraceptive use may reduce abortion rates and low levels of unmet need mean that most unintended pregnancies are due to method failure.Conclusions
The family planning module in Spectrum provides a useful framework to incorporate changes in contraceptive practices and pregnancy outcomes in the LiST calculations of mortality rates and deaths.11.
Purpose
Population studies of the association between zinc intake and mortality yield inconsistent findings. Using data from Jiangsu Nutrition Study, we aimed to assess the association between zinc intake and mortality among Chinese adults.Methods
We prospectively studied 2832 adults aged 20 years and older with a mean follow-up of 9.8 years. At baseline, food intake was measured by 3-day weighed food record (WFR) between September and December in 2002. Death occurrence was assessed in 2012 during a household visit as well as by data linkage with the regional death registry. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CI were calculated using competing risks regression (CVD and cancer mortality) and Cox proportional hazards analysis (all-cause mortality).Results
During 27,742 person-years of follow-up, there were 184 deaths [63 cancer deaths and 70 cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths]. Dietary zinc to energy ratio was positively associated with cancer and all-cause mortality. Across quartiles of the zinc to energy ratio from low to high, the HR (95% CI) for all-cause mortality was 1.00, 1.80 (95% CI 1.10–2.95), 1.55 (95% CI 0.96–2.50), and 1.85 (95% CI 1.11–3.07), respectively. Comparing the extreme quartiles of the zinc to energy ratio, the HR for cancer mortality was 2.28 (95% CI 1.03–5.04).Conclusion
Zinc intake was positively related to all-cause mortality and cancer mortality.12.
13.
Youssouf Keita Hamadoun Sangho Timothy Roberton Emilia Vignola Mariam Traoré Melinda Munos for the Mali NEP Working Group 《BMC public health》2017,17(4):777
Background
Mali is one of four countries implementing a National Evaluation Platform (NEP) to build local capacity to answer evaluation questions for maternal, newborn, child health and nutrition (MNCH&N). In 2014-15, NEP-Mali addressed questions about the potential impact of Mali’s MNCH&N plans and strategies, and identified priority interventions to achieve targeted mortality reductions.Methods
The NEP-Mali team modeled the potential impact of three intervention packages in the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) from 2014 to 2023. One projection included the interventions and targets from Mali’s ten-year health strategy (PDDSS) for 2014-2023, and two others modeled intervention packages that included scale up of antenatal, intrapartum, and curative interventions, as well as reductions in stunting and wasting. We modeled the change in maternal, newborn and under-five mortality rates under these three projections, as well as the number of lives saved, overall and by intervention.Results
If Mali were to achieve the MNCH&N coverage targets from its health strategy, under-5 mortality would be reduced from 121 per 1000 live births to 93 per 1000, far from the target of 69 deaths per 1000. Projections 1 and 2 produced estimated mortality reductions from 121 deaths per 1000 to 70 and 68 deaths per 1000, respectively. With respect to neonatal mortality, the mortality rate would be reduced from 39 to 32 deaths per 1000 live births under the current health strategy, and to 25 per 1000 under projections 1 and 2.Conclusions
This study revealed that achieving the coverage targets for the MNCH&N interventions in the 2014-23 PDDSS would likely not allow Mali to achieve its mortality targets. The NEP-Mali team was able to identify two packages of MNCH&N interventions (and targets) that achieved under-5 and neonatal mortality rates at, or very near, the PDDSS targets. The Malian Ministry of Health and Public Hygiene is using these results to revise its plans and strategies.14.
Wondimye Ashenafi Frehywot Eshetu Nega Assefa Lemessa Oljira Melkamu Dedefo Desalew Zelalem Negga Baraki Melake Demena 《Population health metrics》2017,15(1):22
Background
The health problems of adults have been neglected in many developing countries, yet many studies in these countries show high rates of premature mortality in adults. Measuring adult mortality and its cause through verbal autopsy (VA) methods is becoming an important process for mortality estimates and is a good indicator of the overall mortality rates in resource-limited settings. The objective of this analysis is to describe the levels, distribution, and trends of adult mortality over time (2008-2013) and causes of adult deaths using VA in Kersa Health and Demographic Surveillance System (Kersa HDSS).Methods
Kersa HDSS is a demographic and health surveillance and research center established in 2007 in the eastern part of Ethiopia. This is a community-based longitudinal study where VA methods were used to assign probable cause of death. Two or three physicians independently assigned cause of death based on the completed VA forms in accordance with the World Health Organization’s International Classification of Diseases. In this analysis, the VA data considered were of all deaths of adults age 15 years and above, over a period of six years (2008–2013). The mortality fractions were determined and the causes of death analyzed. Analysis was done using STATA and graphs were designed using Microsoft Excel.Results
A total of 1535 adult deaths occurred in the surveillance site during the study period and VA was completed for all these deaths. In general, the adult mortality rate over the six-year period was 8.5 per 1000 adult population, higher for males (9.6) and rural residents (8.6) than females (7.5) and urban residents (8.2). There is a general decrease in the mortality rates over the study period from 9.4 in 2008–2009 to 8.1 in 2012–2013. Out of the total deaths, about one-third (32.4%) occurred due to infectious and parasitic causes, and the second leading cause of death was diseases of circulatory system (11.4%), followed by gastrointestinal disorders (9.2%). Tuberculosis (TB) showed an increasing trend over the years and has been the leading cause of death in 2012 and 2013 for all adult age categories (15–49, 50–64, and 65 years and over). Chronic liver disease (CLD) was indicated as leading cause of death among adults in the age group 15–49 years.Conclusion
The increasing TB-related mortality in the study years as well as the relative high mortality due to CLD among adults of age 15–49 years should be further investigated and triangulated with health service data to understand the root cause of death.15.
Objective
In recent years, the co-existence in Germany of two parallel comprehensive insurance systems—statutory health insurance (SHI) and private health insurance (PHI)—has been posited as a possible cause of a persistent unequal regional distribution of physicians. The present study investigates the effect of the proportion of privately insured patients on the density of SHI-licensed physicians, while controlling for regional variations in the average income from SHI patients.Methods
The proportion of residents in a district with private health insurance is estimated using complete administrative data from the SHI system and the German population census. Missing values are estimated using multiple imputation techniques. All models control for the estimated average income ambulatory physicians generate from treating SHI insured patients and a well-defined set of covariates on the level of districts in Germany in 2010.Results
Our results show that every percentage change in the proportion of residents with private health insurance is associated with increases of 2.1 and 1.3 % in the density of specialists and GPs respectively. Higher SHI income in rural areas does not compensate for this effect.Conclusion
From a financial perspective, it is rational for a physician to locate a new practice in a district with a high proportion of privately insured patients. From the perspective of patients in the SHI system, the incentive effects of PHI presumably contribute to a concentration of health care services in wealthy and urban areas. To date, the needs-based planning mechanism has been unable to address this imbalance.16.
Shinsuke Miyano Gardner Syakantu Kenichi Komada Hiroyoshi Endo Tomohiko Sugishita 《Cost effectiveness and resource allocation : C/E》2017,15(1):4
Background
In resource-limited settings with a high prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection such as Zambia, decentralization of HIV/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) treatment and care with effective use of resources is a cornerstone of universal treatment and care.Objectives
This research aims to analyse the cost effectiveness of the National Mobile Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) Services Programme in Zambia as a means of decentralizing ART services.Methods
Cost-effectiveness analyses were performed using a decision analytic model and Markov model to compare the original ART programme, ‘Hospital-based ART’, with the intervention programme, Hospital-based plus ‘Mobile ART’, from the perspective of the district government health office in Zambia. The total cost of ART services, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were examined.Results
The mean annual per-patient costs were 1259.16 USD for the original programme and 2601.02 USD for the intervention programme, while the mean number of QALYs was 6.81 for the original and 7.27 for the intervention programme. The ICER of the intervention programme relative to the original programme was 2965.17 USD/QALY, which was much below the willingness-to-pay (WTP), or three times the GDP per capita (4224 USD), but still over the GDP per capita (1408 USD). In the sensitivity analysis, the ICER of the intervention programme did not substantially change.Conclusion
The National Mobile ART Services Programme in Zambia could be a cost-effective approach to decentralizing ART services into rural areas in Zambia. This programme could be expanded to more districts where it has not yet been introduced to improve access to ART services and the health of people living with HIV (PLHIV) in rural areas.17.
Laura Dwyer-Lindgren Ellen R. Squires Stephanie Teeple Gloria Ikilezi D. Allen Roberts Danny V. Colombara Sarah Katherine Allen Stanley M. Kamande Nicholas Graetz Abraham D. Flaxman Charbel El Bcheraoui Kristjana Asbjornsdottir Gilbert Asiimwe Ângelo Augusto Orvalho Augusto Baltazar Chilundo Caroline De Schacht Sarah Gimbel Carol Kamya Faith Namugaya Felix Masiye Cremildo Mauieia Yodé Miangotar Honoré Mimche Acácio Sabonete Haribondhu Sarma Kenneth Sherr Moses Simuyemba Aaron Chisha Sinyangwe Jasim Uddin Bradley H. Wagenaar Stephen S. Lim 《Population health metrics》2018,16(1):13
Background
The under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) is an important metric of child health and survival. Country-level estimates of U5MR are readily available, but efforts to estimate U5MR subnationally have been limited, in part, due to spatial misalignment of available data sources (e.g., use of different administrative levels, or as a result of historical boundary changes).Methods
We analyzed all available complete and summary birth history data in surveys and censuses in six countries (Bangladesh, Cameroon, Chad, Mozambique, Uganda, and Zambia) at the finest geographic level available in each data source. We then developed small area estimation models capable of incorporating spatially misaligned data. These small area estimation models were applied to the birth history data in order to estimate trends in U5MR from 1980 to 2015 at the second administrative level in Cameroon, Chad, Mozambique, Uganda, and Zambia and at the third administrative level in Bangladesh.Results
We found substantial variation in U5MR in all six countries: there was more than a two-fold difference in U5MR between the area with the highest rate and the area with the lowest rate in every country. All areas in all countries experienced declines in U5MR between 1980 and 2015, but the degree varied both within and between countries. In Cameroon, Chad, Mozambique, and Zambia we found areas with U5MRs in 2015 that were higher than in other parts of the same country in 1980. Comparing subnational U5MR to country-level targets for the Millennium Development Goals (MDG), we find that 12.8% of areas in Bangladesh did not meet the country-level target, although the country as whole did. A minority of areas in Chad, Mozambique, Uganda, and Zambia met the country-level MDG targets while these countries as a whole did not.Conclusions
Subnational estimates of U5MR reveal significant within-country variation. These estimates could be used for identifying high-need areas and positive deviants, tracking trends in geographic inequalities, and evaluating progress towards international development targets such as the Sustainable Development Goals.18.
Muhammad Shahid Ansari Rabia Manzoor Nasim Siddiqui Ahsan Maqbool Ahmed 《Health research policy and systems / BioMed Central》2015,13(Z1):S55
Background
Pakistan’s maternal and child health indicators remain unacceptably high, with a maternal mortality ratio of 276 per 100,000 live births and a neonatal mortality rate of 55 per 1,000 live births. Provision of basic and comprehensive emergency obstetric and newborn care is mandated by the government; however, coverage, access, and utilisation levels remain unsatisfactory, with the situation in Sindh province being amongst the worst in the country. This study attempted to assess access to comprehensive emergency obstetric and newborn care (C-EmONC) facilities and barriers hampering access in Sindh.Methods
One public sector hospital in each of three districts in Sindh province providing C-EmONC services were selected for a facility exit survey. A cross-sectional household survey and focus group discussions were conducted in the catchment population of these hospitals.Results
Overall, 82% and 96% of those who utilised a public or private C-EmONC facility, respectively, incurred out-of-pocket expenditure. As expected, those living more than 5 km from the facility reported higher mean expenditure than those living within 5 km of the facility. More than half of the respondents (55%) among public sector users and the majority (71%) of private sector users could not afford travel costs. More than one third (35%) of public sector users and about two thirds (64%) of private sector users who could not afford travel costs took loans. The proportion of respondents who took loans was higher among those living more than 5 km of the health facility compared to those living within a 5 km distance. The majority of respondents (70%) in the community survey chose to go to a private sector C-EmONC facility. In addition to poverty, in terms of sociocultural access, religious and ethnic discrimination and the poor attitude of facility staff were amongst the most important barriers to accessing a C-EmONC facility.Conclusions
C-EmONC facilities in both the public and private sectors may simply not be accessible and affordable for the vast majority of poor and marginalised women in targeted districts.19.
Background
Ethiopia has made remarkable progress in reducing child mortality over the last two decades. However, the under-5 mortality rate in Ethiopia is still higher than the under-5 mortality rates of several low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). On the other hand, the patterns and causes of child mortality have not been well investigated in Ethiopia. The objective of this study was to investigate the mortality trend, causes of death, and risk factors among children under 5 in Ethiopia during 1990–2013.Methods
We used Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 data. Spatiotemporal Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) was applied to generate best estimates of child mortality with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). Causes of death by age groups, sex, and year were measured using Cause of Death Ensemble modeling (CODEm). For estimation of HIV/AIDS mortality rate, the modified UNAIDS EPP-SPECTRUM suite model was used.Results
Between 1990 and 2013 the under-5 mortality rate declined from 203.9 deaths/1000 live births to 74.4 deaths/1000 live births with an annual rate of change of 4.6%, yielding a total reduction of 64%. Similarly, child (1–4 years), post-neonatal, and neonatal mortality rates declined by 75%, 64%, and 52%, respectively, between 1990 and 2013. Lower respiratory tract infection (LRI), diarrheal diseases, and neonatal syndromes (preterm birth complications, neonatal encephalopathy, neonatal sepsis, and other neonatal disorders) accounted for 54% of the total under-5 deaths in 2013. Under-5 mortality rates due to measles, diarrhea, malaria, protein-energy malnutrition, and iron-deficiency anemia declined by more than two-thirds between 1990 and 2013. Among the causes of under-5 deaths, neonatal syndromes such as sepsis, preterm birth complications, and birth asphyxia ranked third to fifth in 2013.Of all risk-attributable deaths in 1990, 25% of the total under-5 deaths (112,288/435,962) and 48% (112,288/232,199) of the deaths due to diarrhea, LRI, and other common infections were attributable to childhood wasting. Similarly, 19% (43,759/229,333) of the total under-5 deaths and 45% (43,759/97,963) of the deaths due to diarrhea and LRI were attributable to wasting in 2013. Of the total diarrheal disease- and LRI-related deaths (n?=?97,963) in 2013, 59% (57,923/97,963) of them were attributable to unsafe water supply, unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, and no handwashing with soap.Conclusions
LRI, diarrheal diseases, and neonatal syndromes remain the major causes of under-5 deaths in Ethiopia. These findings call for better-integrated newborn and child survival interventions focusing on the main risk factors.20.
Jan Bauer David A. Groneberg Werner Maier Roxanne Manek Frank Louwen Dörthe Brüggmann 《International journal of health geographics》2017,16(1):44