Impact of transmission dynamics on the cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination

The objective of this study is to estimate the cost-effectiveness of mass vaccination of US infants with the recently available rotavirus vaccine, RotaTeq. We developed a dynamic transmission model of rotavirus to incorporate herd immunity into cost-effectiveness analysis. Our study indicates that a rotavirus vaccination program would prevent about 90% of rotavirus incidence, mortality, hospitalization and emergency department visits annually. We conclude that a universal rotavirus vaccine program in the US would cost $77.30 per case averted from the health care and give a net saving of $80.75 per case averted from the societal perspectives, respectively. The cost per QALY gained was found to be $104,610 when we considered child with one caregiver, making the rotavirus vaccination program a cost-effective intervention.     

Cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in the Philippines: A modeling study

IntroductionRotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) remains a leading cause of hospitalization and death in children under five years of age in the Philippines. Rotavirus (RV) vaccination was introduced into the national immunization program (NIP) in 2012 but has since been limited to one region due to cost considerations and conflicting local cost-effectiveness estimates. Updated estimates of the cost-effectiveness of RV vaccination are required to inform prioritization of national immunization activities.MethodsWe calculated the potential costs and benefits of rotavirus vaccination over a 10-year-period (2021–2031) from a government and societal perspective, comparing four alternative rotavirus vaccines: Rotavac, Rotasiil, Rotarix and Rotateq. For each vaccine, a proportionate outcomes model was used to calculate the expected number of disease events, DALYs, vaccination program costs, and healthcare costs, with and without vaccination. The primary outcome measure was the cost per DALY averted. Assuming each product would generate similar benefits, the dominant (lowest cost) product was identified. We then calculated the cost-effectiveness (US$ per Disability Adjusted Life Year [DALY] averted) of the least costly product and compared it to willingness-to-pay thresholds of 0.5 and 1 times the national GDP per capita ($3,485), and ran deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.ResultsIntroducing any of the four rotavirus vaccines would avert around 40% of RVGE visits, hospitalizations, and deaths over the period 2021–2031. Over the same ten-year period, the incremental cost of vaccination from a government perspective was estimated to be around $104, $105, $220, and $277 million for Rotavac, Rotasiil, Rotarix and Rotateq, respectively. The equivalent cost from a societal perspective was $58, $60, $178 and $231 million. The cost-effectiveness of the least costly product (Rotavac) was $1,148 ($830–$1682) from a government perspective and $646 ($233–1277) from a societal perspective. All other products offered similar benefits but at a higher cost. There is a >99% probability that Rotavac would be cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold set at 0.5 times the national GDP per capita.ConclusionBoth Rotavac and Rotasiil are likely to be cost-effective options in the Philippines, but it is not possible to say definitively which product should be preferred. Rotarix and Rotateq are expected to offer similar benefits at more cost, so would need to be priced far more competitively to be considered for introduction.     

Cost-benefit analysis of rotavirus vaccine included in the national immunization program in China

BackgroundGlobally, rotavirus is a leading cause of severe acute gastroenteritis among children aged under 5 years and has a significant economic cost. Currently, rotavirus vaccines are only included in the private market in China. This study aimed to assess the cost-benefit of including a three-dose rotavirus vaccine in China’s National Immunization Program (NIP).MethodsA decision tree Markov model was constructed to evaluate the cost-benefit of universal immunization with three doses of rotavirus vaccine for a 2019 birth cohort of Chinese children. Costs of the universal vaccination program included vaccine price, vaccine wastage, vaccine administration, and indirect costs. All costs were discounted at 3 % per year and converted from 2019 Chinese Yuan to 2019 USD using the 2019 exchange rate.ResultsFor the 2019 birth cohort of Chinese infants, inclusion of RotaTeq in NIP was estimated to prevent 5,677,911 cases of rotavirus infection, with net savings of $1.1 billion in total societal costs. A cost of $17.55 per vaccine dose was the threshold at which inclusion of rotavirus vaccine in NIP would be cost-saving.ConclusionsIntroducing rotavirus vaccine into the China NIP would have significant costs from a societal perspective at the current private market price.     

The economic burden of rotavirus hospitalization among children < 5 years of age in selected hospitals in Bangladesh

BackgroundRotavirus is a common cause of severe acute gastroenteritis among young children. Estimation of the economic burden would provide informed decision about investment on prevention strategies (e.g., vaccine and/or behavior change), which has been a potential policy discussion in Bangladesh for several years.MethodsWe estimated the societal costs of children <5 years for hospitalization from rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) and incidences of catastrophic health expenditure. A total of 360 children with stool specimens positive for rotavirus were included in this study from 6 tertiary hospitals (3 public and 3 private). We interviewed the caregiver of the patient and hospital staff to collect cost from patient and health facility perspectives. We estimated the economic cost considering 2015 as the reference year.ResultsThe total societal per-patient costs to treat RVGE in the public hospital were 126 USD (95% CI: 116–136) and total household costs were 161 USD (95% CI: 145–177) in private facilities. Direct costs constituted 38.1% of total household costs. The out-of-pocket payments for RVGE hospitalization was 23% of monthly income and 76% of households faced catastrophic healthcare expenditures due to this expense. The estimated total annual household treatment cost for the country was 10 million USD.ConclusionsA substantial economic burden of RVGE in Bangladesh was observed in this study. Any prevention of RVGE through cost-effective vaccination or/and behavioural change would contribute to substantial economic benefits to Bangladesh.     

Projected health impact and cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination among children <5 years of age in China

Introduction

Two rotavirus vaccines have been licensed globally since 2006. In China, only a lamb rotavirus vaccine is licensed and several new rotavirus vaccines are in development. Data regarding the projected health impact and cost-effectiveness of vaccination of children in China against rotavirus will assist policy makers in developing recommendations for vaccination.

Methods

Using a Microsoft Excel model, we compared the national health and economic burden of rotavirus disease in China with and without a vaccination program. Model inputs included 2007 data on burden and cost of rotavirus outcomes (deaths, hospitalizations, outpatient visits), projected vaccine efficacy, coverage, and cost. Cost-effectiveness was measured in US dollars per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) and US dollars per life saved.

Results

A 2-dose rotavirus vaccination program could annually avert 3013 (62%) deaths, 194,794 (59%) hospitalizations and 1,333,356 (51%) outpatient visits associated with rotavirus disease in China. The medical break-even price of the vaccine is $1.19 per dose. From a societal perspective, a vaccination program would be highly cost-effective in China at the vaccine price of $2.50 to $5 per dose, and be cost-effective at the price of $10 to $20 per dose.

Conclusions

A national rotavirus vaccination program could be a cost-effective measure to effectively reduce deaths, hospitalizations, and outpatient visits due to rotavirus disease in China.     

The potential public health and economic value of a hypothetical COVID-19 vaccine in the United States: Use of cost-effectiveness modeling to inform vaccination prioritization

BackgroundResearchers are working at unprecedented speed to develop a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. We aimed to assess the value of a hypothetical vaccine and its potential public health impact when prioritization is required due to supply constraints.MethodsA Markov cohort model was used to estimate COVID-19 related direct medical costs and deaths in the United States (US), with and without implementation of a 60% efficacious vaccine. To prioritize the vaccine under constrained supply, the population was divided into tiers based on age; risk and age; and occupation and age; and outcomes were compared across one year under various supply assumptions. The incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained versus no vaccine was calculated for the entire adult population and for each tier in the three prioritization schemes.ResultsThe incremental cost per QALY gained for the US adult population was $8,200 versus no vaccination. For the tiers at highest risk of complications from COVID-19, such as those ages 65 years and older, vaccination was cost-saving compared to no vaccination. The cost per QALY gained increased to over $94,000 for those with a low risk of hospitalization and death following infection. Results were most sensitive to infection incidence, vaccine price, the cost of treating COVID-19, and vaccine efficacy. Under the most optimistic supply scenario, the hypothetical vaccine may prevent 31% of expected deaths. As supply becomes more constrained, only 23% of deaths may be prevented. In lower supply scenarios, prioritization becomes more important to maximize the number of deaths prevented.ConclusionsA COVID-19 vaccine is predicted to be good value for money (cost per QALY gained <$50,000). The speed at which an effective vaccine can be made available will determine how much morbidity and mortality may be prevented in the US.     

Dynamic Modeling of Cost-effectiveness of Rotavirus Vaccination,Kazakhstan

The government of Kazakhstan, a middle-income country in Central Asia, is considering the introduction of rotavirus vaccination into its national immunization program. We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis of rotavirus vaccination spanning 20 years by using a synthesis of dynamic transmission models accounting for herd protection. We found that a vaccination program with 90% coverage would prevent ≈880 rotavirus deaths and save an average of 54,784 life-years for children <5 years of age. Indirect protection accounted for 40% and 60% reduction in severe and mild rotavirus gastroenteritis, respectively. Cost per life year gained was US $18,044 from a societal perspective and US $23,892 from a health care perspective. Comparing the 2 key parameters of cost-effectiveness, mortality rates and vaccine cost at <US $2.78 per dose, vaccination program costs would be entirely offset. To further evaluate efficacy of a vaccine program, benefits of indirect protection conferred by vaccination warrant further study.     

Cost-effectiveness of a pneumococcal conjugate immunisation program for infants in Switzerland

OBJECTIVE: To compare projected economic costs and health benefits associated with using pneumococcal conjugate heptavalent vaccine as routine immunisation in healthy children in Switzerland.DESIGN: A cost-utility analysis was performed from both the societal as well as the sickness funds' perspective.SETTING: Simulated birth cohorts of 80,000 children (the approximate size of a birth cohort in Switzerland) were followed from birth up to age of 5.MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Reduction in disease burden, costs of vaccination, cost-utility ratio (cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY)).RESULTS: With a vaccine coverage of 70% vaccination of newborns only would avert 4 deaths, 8 cases of meningitis, 37 cases of other invasive pneumococcal disease, 150 cases of pneumococcal pneumonia and about 2700 cases of otitis media (OM) per year. The net cost of the vaccination program would be 22 Mio. CHF per year for society and about 19 Mio. CHF for the sickness funds. This results in a cost-utility ratio of 35,700 CHF (approximately 26,300 USD (1)) per QALY from the societal perspective and 39,300 CHF (28,900 USD) per QALY from the sickness funds' perspective. Additional catch-up vaccination of all infants <24 months in the years after vaccine introduction would result in additional benefits at a cost of 33,600 CHF per additional QALY gained. However, if the catch-up vaccination should include all children <60 months, each additional QALY would be gained at a very high cost (162,000 CHF per additional QALY).CONCLUSIONS: Routine vaccination of healthy infants <2 years in Switzerland can reduce mortality and long term neurologic impairment resulting from invasive pneumococcal disease at a reasonable cost-utility ratio.     

Evaluation of cost-effectiveness of live oral pentavalent reassortant rotavirus vaccine introduction in Ghana

Background

Globally, rotavirus gastroenteritis is the most common identifiable cause of severe diarrhea in children under 5. Recently introduced rotavirus vaccines from Merck &; Co. and GlaxoSmithKline have the potential to save hundreds of thousands of lives. Efficacy results in Ghana suggest Merck &; Co.’s live oral pentavalent rotavirus vaccine (RotaTeq^®) prevents 65.0% of severe gastroenteritis due to rotavirus infection in children under 5. The announcement by Merck and GSK to make their rotavirus vaccines available for developing nations at reduced prices provides Ghana with the opportunity to introduce rotavirus vaccines into the national immunization program after investigation of the medical, economic and political implications.

Methods

We estimated the average costs of treating children with diarrhea in the Ashanti region of Ghana as inpatients and outpatients. Using these results, data from rotavirus surveillance studies, and recent rotavirus vaccine efficacy evaluation, we estimated the cost-effectiveness of introducing RotaTeq in Ghana.

Results

Based on our prospective calculations, we estimated an average inpatient and outpatient costs of $233.97 and $17.09, respectively, for treating childhood diarrhea. Using the 2003 birth cohort, RotaTeq introduction could save 1554 lives and avert 93,109 disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) annually. At a market price of $5 per dose, introducing RotaTeq would have a base-case cost of $62.26 per DALY averted, at a market price of $3.50 per dose, a base-case cost of $39.59 per DALY averted and at market cost of $1 per dose, a base-case cost of $1.81 per DALY averted. All three values are below the 2009 Ghana per capita GDP. Thus, RotaTeq introduction into Ghana will be very cost-effective. Sensitivity analyses suggest these results are robust.

Conclusions

RotaTeq vaccination for children under five in Ghana would be a highly cost-effective public health intervention. Ghanaian health officials should seek GAVI funding and evaluate how to maximize RotaTeq access.     

Economic impact of implementing decennial tetanus toxoid,reduced diphtheria toxoid and acellular pertussis (Tdap) vaccination in adults in the United States

BackgroundIn the United States, persons ≥11 years are recommended to receive one dose of tetanus toxoid, reduced diphtheria toxoid and acellular pertussis (Tdap) vaccine, followed by decennial tetanus- and diphtheria-toxoid (Td) boosters. Many providers use Tdap instead of Td. We evaluated epidemiologic and economic impacts of replacing Td boosters with Tdap.MethodsWe used a static cohort model to examine replacing Td with Tdap over the lifetime of 4,386,854 adults ≥21 years. Because pertussis is underdiagnosed and true incidence is unknown, we varied incidence from 2.5 cases/100,000 person-years to 500 cases/100,000 person-years. We calculated vaccine and medical costs from claims data. We estimated cost per case prevented and per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) saved; sensitivity analyses were conducted on vaccine effectiveness (VE), protection duration, vaccine cost, disease duration, hospitalization rates, productivity loss and missed work. We did not include programmatic advantages resulting from use of a single tetanus-toxoid containing vaccine.ResultsAt lowest incidence estimates, administering Tdap resulted in high costs per averted case ($111,540) and QALY saved ($8,972,848). As incidence increased, cases averted increased and cost per QALY saved decreased rapidly. With incidence estimates of 250 cases/100,000 person-years, cost per averted case and QALY saved were $984 and $81,678 respectively; at 500 cases/100,000 person-years, these values were $427 and $35,474. In multivariate sensitivity analyses, assuming 250 cases/100,000 person-years, estimated cost per QALY saved ranged from $971 (most favorable) to $217,370 (least favorable).ConclusionsOur findings suggest that replacing Td with Tdap for the decennial booster would result in high cost per QALY saved based on reported cases. However, programmatic considerations were not accounted for, and if pertussis incidence, which is incompletely measured, is assumed to be higher than reported through national surveillance, substituting Tdap for Td may lead to moderate decreases in pertussis cases and cost per QALY.     

Cost-effectiveness of a potential group B streptococcal vaccine for pregnant women in the United States

BackgroundIn the U.S., intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis (IAP) for pregnant women colonized with group B streptococcus (GBS) has reduced GBS disease in the first week of life (early-onset/EOGBS). Nonetheless, GBS remains a leading cause of neonatal sepsis, including 1000 late-onset (LOGBS) cases annually. A maternal vaccine under development could prevent EOGBS and LOGBS.MethodsUsing a decision-analytic model, we compared the public health impact, costs, and cost-effectiveness of five strategies to prevent GBS disease in infants: (1) no prevention; (2) currently recommended screening/IAP; (3) maternal GBS immunization; (4) maternal immunization with IAP when indicated for unimmunized women; (5) maternal immunization plus screening/IAP for all women. We modeled a pentavalent vaccine covering serotypes 1a, 1b, II, III, and V, which cause almost all GBS disease.ResultsIn the base case, screening/IAP alone prevents 46% of EOGBS compared to no prevention, at a cost of $70,275 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) from a healthcare and $51,249/QALY from a societal perspective (2013 US$). At coverage rates typical of maternal vaccines in the U.S., a pentavalent vaccine alone would not prevent as much disease as screening/IAP until its efficacy approached 90%, but would cost less per QALY. At vaccine efficacy of ≥70%, maternal immunization together with IAP for unimmunized women would prevent more disease than screening/IAP, at a similar cost/QALY.ConclusionsGBS maternal immunization, with IAP as indicated for unvaccinated women, could be an attractive alternative to screening/IAP if a pentavalent vaccine is sufficiently effective. Coverage, typically low for maternal vaccines, is key to the vaccine’s public health impact.     

Potential health impact and cost-effectiveness of bivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in Afghanistan

IntroductionHuman papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination has not been introduced in many countries in South-Central Asia, including Afghanistan, despite the sub-region having the highest incidence rate of cervical cancer in Asia. This study estimates the potential health impact and cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination in Afghanistan to inform national decision-making.MethodAn Excel-based static cohort model was used to estimate the lifetime costs and health outcomes of vaccinating a single cohort of 9-year-old girls in the year 2018 with the bivalent HPV vaccine, compared to no vaccination. We also explored a scenario with a catch-up campaign for girls aged 10–14 years. Input parameters were based on local sources, published literature, or assumptions when no data was available. The primary outcome measure was the discounted cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted, evaluated from both government and societal perspectives.ResultsVaccinating a single cohort of 9-year-old girls against HPV in Afghanistan could avert 1718 cervical cancer cases, 125 hospitalizations, and 1612 deaths over the lifetime of the cohort. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was US$426 per DALY averted from the government perspective and US$400 per DALY averted from the societal perspective. The estimated annual cost of the HPV vaccination program (US$3,343,311) represents approximately 3.53% of the country′s total immunization budget for 2018 or 0.13% of total health expenditures.ConclusionIn Afghanistan, HPV vaccine introduction targeting a single cohort is potentially cost-effective (0.7 times the GDP per capita of $586) from both the government and societal perspective with additional health benefits generated by a catch-up campaign, depending on the government′s willingness to pay for the projected health outcomes.     

Cost effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Australia

OBJECTIVE: Rotavirus gastroenteritis causes substantial morbidity, including hospital admission, in young children. In the context of recent vaccine developments, this study aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of a rotavirus vaccination program in Australia. METHOD: Standard methods of health economic evaluation were used to assess the total cost of rotavirus immunisation (as the difference between estimated vaccination program costs and the cost of disease that would be avoided by immunisation) and relate this to the number of cases of disease that would be prevented. Estimates were made from both societal and health care systems perspectives. RESULTS: Based on Australian data on disease incidence and cost of hospitalisation, the current annual cost of rotavirus disease is about $26.0 million. Using conservative vaccine efficacy estimates, current immunization uptake rates and a cost of $30 per dose of vaccine, rotavirus immunisation would incur a net societal cost of $2.9 million ($11 per child), at a gross program cost of $21.6 million. These estimates are sensitive to two sources of uncertainty in the estimation of program delivery costs: vaccine price and whether separate immunization visits would be required. CONCLUSION: A rotavirus immunisation program would be cost-neutral to Australian society at a vaccine price of $26 per dose (or $19 when health care system costs only are considered). IMPLICATIONS: Rotavirus immunization may be cost-effective in Australia, but considerable uncertainty remains. Policy decisions will depend heavily on pricing of the vaccine and may also need to consider intangible costs not accounted for in this analysis.     

Impact and cost-effectiveness of a second tetanus toxoid,reduced diphtheria toxoid,and acellular pertussis (Tdap) vaccine dose to prevent pertussis in the United States

IntroductionThe United States experienced a substantial increase in reported pertussis cases over the last decade. Since 2005, persons 11 years and older have been routinely recommended to receive a single dose of tetanus toxoid, reduced diphtheria toxoid and acellular pertussis (Tdap) vaccine. The objective of this analysis was to evaluate the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of recommending a second dose of Tdap.MethodsA static cohort model was used to calculate the epidemiologic and economic impact of adding a second dose of Tdap at age 16 or 21 years. Projected costs and outcomes were examined from a societal perspective over a 20-year period. Quality-adjusted Life Years (QALY) saved were calculated.ResultsUsing baseline pertussis incidence from the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System, Tdap revaccination at either age 16 or 21 years would reduce outpatient visits by 433 (5%) and 285 (4%), and hospitalization cases by 7 (7%) and 5 (5%), respectively. The costs per QALY saved with a second dose of Tdap were approximately US $19.7 million (16 years) and $26.2 million (21 years). In sensitivity analyses, incidence most influenced the model; as incidence increased, the costs per QALY decreased. To a lesser degree, initial vaccine effectiveness and waning of effectiveness also affected cost outcomes. Multivariate sensitivity analyses showed that under a set of optimistic assumptions, the cost per QALY saved would be approximately $163,361 (16 years) and $204,556 (21 years).ConclusionA second dose of Tdap resulted in a slight decrease in the number of cases and other outcomes, and that trend is more apparent when revaccinating at age 16 years than at age 21 years. Both revaccination strategies had high dollar per QALY saved even under optimistic assumptions in a multivariate sensitivity analysis.     

Cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Mozambique

IntroductionRotavirus is one of the most common cause of severe gastroenteritis in children, with the largest mortality burden in low- and middle-income countries. To prevent rotavirus gastroenteritis, Mozambique introduced ROTARIX® vaccine in 2015, however, its cost-effectiveness has never been established in the country. In 2018, additional vaccines became available globally. This study estimates the cost-effectiveness of the recently introduced ROTARIX in Mozambique and compares the cost-effectiveness of ROTARIX®, ROTAVAC®, and ROTASIIL® to inform future use.MethodsWe used a decision-support model to calculate the potential cost-effectiveness of vaccination with ROTARIX compared to no vaccination over a five-year period (2016–2020) and to compare the cost-effectiveness of ROTARIX, ROTAVAC, and ROTASIIL to no vaccination and to each other over a ten-year period (2021–2030). The primary outcome was the incremental cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted from a government perspective. We assessed uncertainty through sensitivity analyses.ResultsFrom 2016 to 2020, we estimate the vaccine program with ROTARIX cost US$12.3 million, prevented 4,628 deaths, and averted US$3.1 million in healthcare costs. The cost per DALY averted was US$70. From 2021 to 2030, we estimate all three vaccines could prevent 9,000 deaths and avert US$7.8 million in healthcare costs. With Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (Gavi) support, ROTARIX would have the lowest vaccine program cost (US$31 million) and 98 % probability of being cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of 0.5x GDP per capita. Without Gavi support, ROTASIIL would have the lowest vaccine program cost (US$75.8 million) and 30 % probability of being cost-effective at the same threshold.ConclusionROTARIX vaccination had a substantial public health impact in Mozambique between 2016 and 2020. ROTARIX is currently estimated to be the most cost-effective product, but the choice of vaccine should be re-evaluated as more evidence emerges on the price, incremental delivery cost, wastage, and impact associated with each of the different rotavirus vaccines.     

Rotavirus disease in Uzbekistan: cost-effectiveness of a new vaccine

We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Uzbekistan from the healthcare system and societal perspectives. Disease burden was estimated using national statistics on hospitalizations and deaths, and international estimates of under-five mortality. Without vaccination, the risk for rotavirus hospitalization by age 5 is 10 per 1000 children. Rotavirus hospitalizations cost US$ 406,000 annually, of which US$ 360,000 (89%) is for medical expenses and US$ 46,000 (11%) is for non-medical and indirect costs. Rotavirus mortality rate at 0.7 per 1000 derived from national data was three-fold lower than the same rate calculated from international estimates of under-five mortality. Rotavirus vaccination could reduce hospitalizations and deaths by 91% and avert US$ 370,000 in hospitalization costs alone. Vaccination would be cost-effective with vaccine prices in a range of US$ 2-25 per child. However, the cost-effectiveness is greatly influenced by mortality, vaccine price and vaccine efficacy.     

Impact and cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Bangladesh

IntroductionDiarrheal disease is a leading cause of child mortality globally, and rotavirus is responsible for more than a third of those deaths. Despite substantial decreases, the number of rotavirus deaths in children under five was 215,000 per year in 2013. Of these deaths, approximately 41% occurred in Asia and 3% of those in Bangladesh. While Bangladesh has yet to introduce rotavirus vaccination, the country applied for Gavi support and plans to introduce it in 2018. This analysis evaluates the impact and cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Bangladesh and provides estimates of the costs of the vaccination program to help inform decision-makers and international partners.MethodsThis analysis used Pan American Health Organization’s TRIVAC model (version 2.0) to examine nationwide introduction of two-dose rotavirus vaccination in 2017, compared to no vaccination. Three mortality scenarios (low, high, and midpoint) were assessed. Benefits and costs were examined from the societal perspective over ten successive birth cohorts with a 3% discount rate. Model inputs were locally acquired and complemented by internationally validated estimates.ResultsOver ten years, rotavirus vaccination would prevent 4000 deaths, nearly 500,000 hospitalizations and 3 million outpatient visits in the base scenario. With a Gavi subsidy, cost/disability adjusted life year (DALY) ratios ranged from $58/DALY to $142/DALY averted. Without a Gavi subsidy and a vaccine price of $2.19 per dose, cost/DALY ratios ranged from $615/DALY to $1514/DALY averted.ConclusionThe discounted cost per DALY averted was less than the GDP per capita for nearly all scenarios considered, indicating that a routine rotavirus vaccination program is highly likely to be cost-effective. Even in a low mortality setting with no Gavi subsidy, rotavirus vaccination would be cost-effective. These estimates exclude the herd immunity benefits of vaccination, so represent a conservative estimate of the cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Bangladesh.     

Cost-effectiveness of pediatric norovirus vaccination in daycare settings

ObjectiveNoroviruses are the leading cause of acute gastroenteritis in the United States and outbreaks frequently occur in daycare settings. Results of norovirus vaccine trials have been promising, however there are open questions as to whether vaccination of daycare children would be cost-effective. We investigated the incremental cost-effectiveness of a hypothetical norovirus vaccination for children in daycare settings compared to no vaccination.MethodsWe conducted a model-based cost-effectiveness analysis using a disease transmission model of children attending daycare. Vaccination with a 90% coverage rate in addition to the observed standard of care (exclusion of symptomatic children from daycare) was compared to the observed standard of care. The main outcomes measures were infections and deaths averted, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Cost-effectiveness was analyzed from a societal perspective, including medical costs to children as well as productivity losses of parents, over a two-year time horizon. Data sources included outbreak surveillance data and published literature.ResultsA 50% efficacious norovirus vaccine averts 571.83 norovirus cases and 0.003 norovirus-related deaths per 10,000 children compared to the observed standard of care. A $200 norovirus vaccine that is 50% efficacious has a net cost increase of $178.10 per child and 0.025 more QALYs, resulting in an ICER of $7,028/QALY. Based on the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, we estimated that a $200 vaccination with 50% efficacy was 94.0% likely to be cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay of $100,000/QALY threshold and 95.3% likely at a $150,000/QALY threshold.ConclusionDue to the large disease burden associated with norovirus, it is likely that vaccinating children in daycares could be cost-effective, even with modest vaccine efficacy and a high per-child cost of vaccination. Norovirus vaccination of children in daycare has a cost-effectiveness ratio similar to other commonly recommended childhood vaccines.     

The cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in Australia

Rotavirus is a common cause of acute gastroenteritis in young children. Two rotavirus vaccines with demonstrated safety and efficacy in large scale clinical trials have recently received universal funding in Australia. We modelled specific outcomes of disease (hospitalisations, emergency department visits, general practitioner visits, and deaths) and examined the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of both vaccines in the Australian context. From the healthcare payer perspective, the base-case showed only slightly different results for the two vaccines (Rotarix^® would cost $60,073/QALY gained and RotaTeq^® $67,681/QALY gained). From a societal perspective both vaccines were found to be cost saving under base-case assumptions. Rotavirus vaccination could be considered a cost-effective health intervention in Australia, however, the cost-effectiveness ratio depends heavily on several parameters, most notably the appropriate scope of the quality of life impact (that of the child, and one or both caregivers), as well as the negotiated vaccine price for a routine program.     

Public health impact and cost-effectiveness of 15-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine use among the pediatric population of the United States

BackgroundAlthough use of the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) among children has reduced incidence of pneumococcal disease, a considerable burden of disease remains. PCV15 is a new vaccine that contains pneumococcal serotypes 22F and 33F in addition to serotypes contained in PCV13. To inform deliberations by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices on recommendations for PCV15 use among U.S. children, we estimated the health impact and cost-effectiveness of replacing PCV13 with PCV15 within the routine infant immunization program in the United States. We also assessed the impact and cost-effectiveness of a supplementary PCV15 dose among children aged 2–5 years who have already received a full PCV13 series.MethodsWe estimated the incremental number of pneumococcal disease events and deaths averted, costs per quality adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, and costs per life-year gained under different vaccination strategies using a probabilistic model following a single birth cohort of 3.9 million individuals (based on 2020 U.S. birth cohort). We assumed that vaccine effectiveness (VE) of PCV15 against the two additional serotypes was the same as the VE of PCV13. The cost of PCV15 use among children was informed from costs of PCV15 use among adults and from discussions with the manufacturer.ResultsOur base case results found that replacing PCV13 with PCV15 prevented 92,290 additional pneumococcal disease events and 22 associated deaths, while also saving $147 million in costs. A supplementary PCV15 dose among children aged 2–5 years who were fully vaccinated with PCV13 prevented further pneumococcal disease events and associated deaths but at a cost of more than $2.5 million per QALY gained.ConclusionsA further decrease in pneumococcal disease in conjunction with considerable societal cost savings could be expected from replacing PCV13 with PCV15 within the routine infant immunization program in the United States.