Cancer mortality in Europe, 1995-1999, and an overview of trends since 1960

Mortality data, abstracted from the World Health Organization database, are presented in tabular form for 26 cancer sites or groups of sites, plus total cancer mortality, in 36 European countries during the period 1995-1999. Trends in mortality are also given in graphic form for 23 major countries plus the European Union as a whole over the period 1960-1999. In the European Union, total cancer mortality declined by 7% for both sexes over the last 5 years considered. The fall since the late 1980s was 10% in both sexes, corresponding to the avoidance of over 90000 deaths per year, as compared to the rates of the late 1980s. For the first time, over the last few years, some leveling of mortality was reported also in the Russian Federation, the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary and other Eastern European countries, although cancer rates in those areas remain exceedingly high. The overall favorable pattern of cancer mortality over recent years is largely driven by the decline of tobacco-related cancer mortality in men. However, important components of the trends are also the persistence of substantial falls in gastric cancer, mainly in Russia and Eastern Europe, the recent decline in intestinal cancer in both sexes and of breast cancer in women, together with the long-term falls in uterine (cervical) cancer, leukemias, Hodgkin's disease and other neoplasms amenable to advancements in diagnosis and treatment. Female lung cancer mortality has been declining in the Russian Federation, but is still rising in other areas of the continent. Thus, urgent intervention is needed to bring under control the tobacco-related lung cancer epidemic in European women before it reaches the high level observed in North America. Supplementary material for this article can be found on the International Journal of Cancer website at http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0020-7136/suppmat/index.html     

Cancer mortality in Europe, 1990-1994, and an overview of trends from 1955 to 1994

Mortality data, abstracted from the WHO database, are presented in tabular form for 26 cancer sites or groups of sites, plus total cancer mortality, in 35 European countries during the period 1990-1994. Trends in mortality are also given in graphical form for 24 major countries over the period 1955-1994. In most western European countries total cancer mortality was--for the first time--moderately downwards in the early 1990s. Such favourable trends included some decline in lung cancer mortality for males, the persistent decline in stomach cancer for both sexes, and of cervical cancer for women, as well as some decline in breast and colorectal cancers, plus other neoplasms (testis, lymphoid neoplasms), whose treatment has further improved over the last few years. However, cancer mortality was still upwards in a few southern and eastern European countries, including Hungary and Poland, where total cancer mortality rates in middle-aged males are now the highest ever registered in Europe. The favourable trends in western Europe over the recent years are similar to those observed in the U.S.A.     

Cancer mortality in Italy: an overview of age-specific and age-standardised trends from 1955 to 1984

Number of certified deaths, age-specific and age-standardised rates and percentages of all cancer deaths from 30 cancers or groups of cancers (plus total cancer mortality) for each five-year calendar period between 1955 and 1984 in Italy are presented in tabular form. From these data, three graphs are derived, including trends in age-standardised rates, age-specific rates centered on birth cohorts and maps plotted in different shades of grey to represent the surfaces defined by the matrix of various age-specific rates. These analyses quantified the rises in overall cancer mortality in males (from 137 to 192/100,000 world standard), chiefly due to increases in lung and other tobacco-related neoplasms. Overall cancer mortality was stable in females (around 100/100,000). Appreciable cohort effects were evident for tobacco related neoplasms, but also for other major cancer sites, such as intestines or breast, whose rates, after earlier rises, are now stable in earlier middle age. Since the early 1970's, cancer mortality rates have been declining in all age groups below 40 in males and below 55 in females. These declines reflect improvements in therapy for leukemias, lymphomas and germ cell tumors, and general improvements in food availability and storage, hygiene and early diagnosis, which have led to the declines in stomach and cervical cancer. Although moderate in absolute terms and smaller than in other western countries where tobacco-related neoplasms have also been falling in more recent cohorts, these declines are encouraging for the indication they provide on the most likely patterns over the next decades in the same and subsequent generations.     

Recent trends of cancer in Europe: a combined approach of incidence, survival and mortality for 17 cancer sites since the 1990s

IntroductionWe present a comprehensive overview of most recent European trends in population-based incidence of, mortality from and relative survival for patients with cancer since the mid 1990s.MethodsData on incidence, mortality and 5-year relative survival from the mid 1990s to early 2000 for the cancers of the oral cavity and pharynx, oesophagus, stomach, colorectum, pancreas, larynx, lung, skin melanoma, breast, cervix, corpus uteri, ovary, prostate, testis, kidney, bladder, and Hodgkin’s disease were obtained from cancer registries from 21 European countries. Estimated annual percentages change in incidence and mortality were calculated. Survival trends were analyzed by calculating the relative difference in 5-year relative survival between 1990–1994 and 2000–2002 using data from EUROCARE-3 and -4.ResultsTrends in incidence were generally favorable in the more prosperous countries from Northern and Western Europe, except for obesity related cancers. Whereas incidence of and mortality from tobacco-related cancers decreased for males in Northern, Western and Southern Europe, they increased for both sexes in Central Europe and for females nearly everywhere in Europe. Survival rates generally improved, mostly due to better access to specialized diagnostics, staging and treatment. Marked effects of organised or opportunistic screening became visible for breast, prostate and melanoma in the wealthier countries. Mortality trends were generally favourable, except for smoking related cancers.ConclusionCancer prevention and management in Europe is moving in the right direction. Survival increased and mortality decreased through the combination of earlier detection, better access to care and improved treatment. Still, cancer prevention efforts have much to attain, especially in the domain of female smoking prevalence and the emerging obesity epidemic.     

Cancer mortality trends in the EU and acceding countries up to 2015.

BACKGROUND: Examination of trends in cancer mortality in Europe over the past 30 years has shown that, after long-term rises, age-standardised mortality from most common cancer sites has fallen in the EU since the late 1980s. This study aimed to examine trends in the age-specific and age-standardised cancer mortality rates and numbers of cancer deaths up to 2020 for all cancers and various specific sites for all 15 EU countries, the 10 acceding countries, Bulgaria and Romania (currently applicant countries, along with Turkey), and Iceland, Norway and Switzerland of the four EEA countries. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Mortality rates were modelled as a function of age, calendar period and birth cohort. Birth cohort was calculated as age subtracted from calendar period. RESULTS: As a consequence of the generally decreasing trends in the age-standardised rates, the best estimate is that there will be approximately 1.25 million cancer deaths in 2015, which is almost 130,000 (11%) more deaths than in 2000, but 155,000 (11%) fewer deaths than the 1.4 million projected in 2015 on the basis of demographic changes alone. The increases in the forecast numbers of cancer deaths in 2015 are proportionally larger in males than in females (13% and 10%, respectively) and proportionally larger in the acceding countries than in the current EU member countries (14% and 11%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Our forecasts are conservative best estimates of future cancer mortality. There is clearly scope for large improvements in survival, and hence reductions in cancer mortality, in some countries, through eliminating these differences using existing knowledge and treatment regimes.     

Erratum to: Levi et al., Cancer mortality in Europe, 1995–1999, and an overview of trends since 1960. Int J Cancer 2004; 110:155–169.

The original article to which this Erratum refers was published in International Journal of Cancer (2004) 111(2) 293–297 DOI: 10.1002/ijc.20097     

Lung cancer mortality predictions for Ireland 2001-2015 and current trends in North Western Europe

PURPOSE AND METHODOLOGY: Poisson regression models of Irish lung cancer mortality data for the years 1954-2000 were used to predict European age standardized mortality rates (EASMRs) and numbers of deaths for the period 2001-2015. Predictions for the whole population and for the age group 0-64 years were the main focus of this analysis. The models employed in this analysis were written for the STATA 6.0 STATISTICAL PACKAGE FOR WINDOWS. Linear models were applied, in general, to upward trends and log-linear models to downward trends. RESULTS: For males of all ages, EASMRs are expected to fall significantly from 59.7 per 100,000 person years (100,000 PY(-1)) in 2000 to 47.2 in the period 2011-2015. Female EASMRs are expected to fall from 28.3 100,000 PY(-1) in 2000 to 27.8 in 2011-2015. The EASMR for males under 65 years of age is predicted to continue its decline from 20.6 100,000 PY(-1) in 2000 to 11.7 in 2011-2015. The rate for females in this same age group is predicted to decline from 10.7 100,000 PY(-1) in 2000 to 7.0 in 2001-2015. Recent lung cancer trends In Ireland were also compared to other countries in North Western Europe.     

Prostate cancer incidence and mortality trends in 37 European countries: an overview

Prostate cancer has emerged as the most frequent cancer amongst men in Europe, with incidence increasing rapidly over the past two decades. Incidence has been uniformly increasing in the 24 countries with comparable data available, although in a few countries with very high rates (Sweden, Finland and The Netherlands), incidence has begun to fall during the last 3-4 years. The highest prostate cancer mortality rates are in the Baltic region (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) and in Denmark, Norway and Sweden. Prostate cancer mortality has been decreasing in 13 of the 37 European countries considered - predominantly in higher-resource countries within each region - beginning in England and Wales (1992) and more recently in the Czech Republic (2004). There was considerable variability in the magnitude of the annual declines, varying from approximately 1% in Scotland (from 1994) to over 4% for the more recent declines in Hungary, France and the Czech Republic. There appears little relation between the extent of the increases in incidence (in the late 1990s) and the recent mortality declines. It remains unclear to what extent the increasing trends in incidence indicate true risk and how much is due to detection of latent disease. The decreasing mortality after 1990 may be attributable to improvements in treatment and to an effect of prostate specific antigen (PSA) testing. The increase in mortality observed in the Baltic region and in several Central and Eastern European countries appear to reflect a real increase in risk and requires further monitoring.     

Recent trends in colorectal cancer mortality in Europe

Colorectal cancer mortality has been declining over the last two decades in Europe, particularly in women, the trends being, however, different across countries and age groups. We updated to 2007 colorectal cancer mortality trends in Europe using data from the World Health Organization (WHO). Rates were analyzed for the overall population and separately in young, middle‐age and elderly populations. In the European Union (EU), between 1997 and 2007 mortality from colorectal cancer declined by around 2% per year, from 19.7 to 17.4/100,000 men (world standardized rates) and from 12.5 to 10.5/100,000 women. Persisting favorable trends were observed in countries of western and northern Europe, while there were more recent declines in several countries of eastern Europe, including the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia particularly in women (but not Romania and the Russian Federation). In 2007, a substantial excess in colorectal cancer mortality was still observed in Slovakia, Hungary, Croatia, the Czech Republic and Slovenia in men (rates over 25/100,000), and in Hungary, Norway, Denmark and Slovakia in women (rates over 14/100,000). Colorectal mortality trends were more favorable in the young (30–49 years) from most European countries, with a decline of ～2% per year since the early 1990s in both men and women from the EU. The recent decreases in colorectal mortality rates in several European countries are likely due to improvements in (early) diagnosis and treatment, with a consequent higher survival from the disease. Interventions to further reduce colorectal cancer burden are, however, still warranted, particularly in eastern European countries.     

Recent trends and future directions for lung cancer mortality in Europe

Lung cancer mortality patterns throughout Europe are very heterogeneous and largely reflect past smoking habits. In order to clarify the changing patterns of lung cancer in Europe we have plotted the overall lung cancer trends among men and women for 20 countries from 1950 up to 1998. Furthermore, using a Bayesian age-period-cohort approach, we have calculated 5 year projections of lung cancer rate up to 2003. Finally, we make some comments on probable future trends by analysing recent trends in adults aged <55 years. Lung cancer mortality rates up to age 75 years portray a general trend of decreasing lung cancer rates among men and increasing lung cancer rates among women. Exceptions to this decrease among men include Hungary where not only are current mortality rates much higher than previously observed in any other country (at 76.7 out of 100,000 in 1998) but they are projected to increase further in the short term. Rates among adults aged <55 years have recently peaked, indicating that overall rates are likely to peak in the next decade. Among women, rapid increases have been observed in Denmark, Netherlands, Hungary, Ireland and UK. Whereas Ireland and UK rates have started to decrease and are projected to continue falling, rates in the other three countries are projected to increase further. Trends in women aged <55 years indicate that rates in Danish women will peak in the next decade, whereas lung cancer rates among Dutch women are likely to continue increasing. Rates in Hungarian women are likely to increase and will surpass the current high rate observed in Denmark.     

Cervical cancer mortality in young women in Europe: patterns and trends

On the basis of overall national death certification data, it is not possible to analyse mortality from cervical cancer in Europe, since 20-65% of deaths from uterine cancer in largest countries are still certified as uterus, unspecified. We analysed, therefore, age-standardised death certification rates from uterine cancer between 1960 and 1998 in women aged 20-44 years, since most deaths from uterine cancer below the age of 45 years arise from the cervix. In all Western European countries, except Ireland, substantial declines in cervical cancer mortality in younger women were observed, although the falls were larger and earlier for some Nordic countries. The trends were irregular in the UK, with earlier declines between 1960 and 1970, followed by a rise between 1970 and 1985, and a subsequent fall. In Ireland, mortality from uterine cancer at age 20 to 44 years has been rising since the early 1980s, to reach 3.4/100000 in 1995-1996. In Eastern Europe, some fall in mortality was observed in Hungary and Poland, while trends were upwards in Romania since 1980, and in Bulgaria. In all these countries, moreover, absolute rates remained appreciably higher than in most of Western Europe, and in the late 1990s there was over a 10-fold variation between the highest rates in Romania (10.6/100000 women aged 20-44 years) and the lowest ones in Finland (0.5/100000) or Sweden (0.9/100000). Within the European Union, the variation was over 6-fold, the highest rates being registered in Ireland (3. 4/100000) and Portugal (3.2/100000). The declines registered in cervical cancer mortality in young women were largely due to screening, and the persisting variations in mortality across Europe underline the importance of the adoption of organised screening programmes, with specific urgency in Eastern Europe.     

Childhood cancer survival in Europe: an overview

Other articles in this issue of the European Journal of Cancer have described population-based survival analyses of specific types of childhood cancer included in the EUROCARE database, diagnosed since 1979. The present paper summarises the relevant estimates and comments on intercountry differences, focusing on possible distortions in the intercountry comparisons based on data produced by the cancer registries. Potential biases include a lack of exhaustiveness of both case ascertainment and follow-up for living status and also a lack of consistency in the use of classification of the childhood cancer types. Nevertheless, despite such biases, consistent differences are observed between European countries in the probability of survival following the diagnosis of a paediatric cancer. In most cases, poor population-based survival rates are probably explained by inadequacies in the adoption and implementation of therapeutic protocols that have been proved to be effective. In some instances, the cause of unsatisfactory estimates was the inclusion of a sizeable proportion of children with cancer in clinical trials which were found to be ineffective. A regression analysis of incidence, mortality and survival rates during 1978-1989 over the whole EUROCARE database strongly indicates that the prognostic improvements over time are real and cannot be attributed to changes in diagnostic procedures.     

Time trends of breast cancer survival in Europe in relation to incidence and mortality

Increasing breast cancer survival, observed in most western countries, is not easily interpreted: it could be due to better treatment, more effective treatment due to earlier diagnosis or simply lead-time bias. Increased diagnostic activity (e.g., screening) can inflate both incidence and survival. To understand interrelations between incidence, mortality and survival trends and their consequences, we analyzed survival trends in relation to mortality and incidence. Starting with observed survival from EUROCARE, mortality from WHO and using the MIAMOD method, we estimated breast cancer incidence trends from 1970 to 2005 in 10 European countries. To smooth out peaks in incidence and survival due to early diagnosis activity, survival trends were assumed similar to those observed by EUROCARE in 1983-1994. The following patterns emerged: (1) increasing survival with increasing incidence and declining or stable mortality (Sweden, Finland); (2) slight survival increase, marked incidence increase and slight mortality decrease (Denmark, the Netherlands and France); (3) increasing survival, marked decrease in mortality and tendency to incidence stabilization (UK); (4) marked survival increase, steady or decreasing mortality and moderate increases in incidence (Spain, Italy); (5) stable survival, increasing incidence and mortality (Estonia). In most countries survival increased, indicating a real advantage for patients when accompanied by decreasing or stable mortality, and attributable to improved cancer care (Sweden, UK, France, Italy and Spain). In Finland (with high survival), the Netherlands and Denmark, increasing mortality and incidence indicate increasing breast cancer risk, probably related to life-style factors. In Estonia, low and stable survival in the context of increasing incidence and mortality suggests inadequate care.