Construction and evaluation of prognostic models for esophageal cancer patients with distant and non-distant metastases: providing a reference process for clinical diagnosis and treatment

BackgroundAlthough the current treatment for esophageal cancer has great technological progress, the 5-year survival rate of patients is not optimistic. About 70% of patients with esophageal cancer are at an advanced stage at first diagnosis. These patients are prone to distant metastasis, and the prognosis is poor. Therefore, understanding the risk factors for distant metastasis in patients with esophageal cancer, combined with the prognosis of the patient, can aid in choosing the optimal diagnosis and treatment plan. Ultimately, it will improve the patient’s survival time and quality of life. This research aims to construct a model for the risk assessment of distant metastasis in patients with esophageal cancer and prognostic models for patients with distant and non-distant metastases.MethodsThe Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database was used to select patients with esophageal cancer from 2010 to 2015. The optimal cutoff point was selected for the age and tumor size variables using X-tile. The nomogram was constructed using R software (The R Foundation for Statistical Computing).ResultsGender, grade, T stage, N stage, and tumor size were independent risk factors associated with distant metastasis in patients with esophageal cancer. The concordance index (C-index) of the nomogram prediction model for whether the patient will have distant metastasis was 0.609. Age, grade, T stage, N stage, and tumor size were independent risk factors affecting the prognosis without distant metastasis. The C-index of the nomogram prediction model for patients with distant metastases was 0.590. Age and T stage were independent risk factors affecting the prognosis of patients with distant metastases. The C-index of the nomogram prediction model was 0.543. The combination of radiotherapy, chemotherapy, and primary surgery yielded the best overall survival for both patients with distant metastases and patients with non-distant metastases.ConclusionsA comprehensive assessment of the risk of distant metastasis in patients with esophageal cancer, combined with prognosis prediction, is necessary to provide patients with a reasonable treatment plan.     

A functional <Emphasis Type="Italic">BRCA1</Emphasis> coding sequence genetic variant contributes to prognosis of triple-negative breast cancer,especially after radiotherapy

Purpose

The prognostic role of primary tumor surgery in women with metastatic breast cancer at diagnosis is contentious. A subset of patients who will benefit from aggressive local treatment is needed to be identified. Using a nationwide database, we developed and validated a predictive model to identify long-term survivors among patients who had undergone primary tumor surgery.

Methods

A total of 150,043 patients were enrolled in the Korean Breast Cancer Registry between January 1990 and December 2014. Of these, 2332 (1.6%) presented with distant metastasis at diagnosis. Using Cox proportional hazards regression, we developed and validated a model that predicts survival in patients who undergo primary tumor surgery, based on the clinicopathological features of the primary tumor.

Results

A total of 2232 metastatic breast cancer patients were reviewed. Of these, 1541 (69.0%) patients had undergone primary tumor surgery. The 3-year survival rate was 62.6% in this subgroup. Among these patients, advanced T-stage, high-grade tumor, lymphovascular invasion, negative estrogen receptor status, high Ki-67 expression, and abnormal CA 15-3 and alkaline phosphatase levels were associated with poor survival. A prediction model was developed based on these factors, which successfully identified patients with remarkable survival (score 0–3, 3-year survival rate 87.3%). The clinical significance of the model was also validated with an independent dataset.

Conclusions

We have developed a predictive model to identify long-term survivors among women who undergo primary tumor surgery. This model will provide guidance to patients and physicians when considering surgery as a treatment modality for metastatic breast cancer.

     

Pathological complete response may underestimate distant metastasis in locally advanced rectal cancer following neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and radical surgery: Incidence,metastatic pattern,and risk factors

AimTo evaluate the pattern of tumor relapse of pathological complete response (pCR) patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) following neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) and total mesorectal excision (TME), and to identify predictive factors of distant metastasis in pCR patients after nCRT.MethodThis was a retrospective analysis of 118 LARC patients who achieved a pCR following nCRT and TME from 2008 to 2015. Clinicopathological and therapeutic parameters were evaluated as possible predictors of distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS), and COX regression analysis was performed.ResultsAfter a median follow-up of 57 months, the 5-year overall and disease-free survival rates were 94.7% and 88.1%, respectively. Overall, 6 patients (5.1%) died, no local recurrence occurred, 13 patients (11%) developed distant metastases, including lung (n = 5), liver (n = 2), bone (n = 3), lung and brain (n = 1), peritoneal (n = 1), and spleen (n = 1) metastasis. On univariate analysis, tumor distance from the anal verge (HR = 0.706, P = 0.039), acellular mucin pools (HR = 6.687, P = 0.002), and MUC1 expression (HR = 8.280, P < 0.001) were independently associated with DMFS. COX regression demonstrated that MUC1 expression (HR = 3.812, P = 0.041) remained to be an independent predictor of DMFS in pCR patients.ConclusionDistant metastasis still remained a major concern in pCR patients following nCRT and TME. Tumor distance from the anal verge, acellular mucin pools, and MUC1 expression were associated with distant metastasis in patients with pCR. MUC1 staining remained to be an independent risk factor for DMFS. Such information could facilitate treatment decision in these patients, such as adjuvant chemotherapy and follow-up.     

Ⅰ期非小细胞肺癌预后因素的研究

目的 探讨Ⅰ期非小细胞肺癌(NSCLC)的联合预后因素。方法 回顾性分析58例Ⅰ期NSCLC患者的临床资料、术后病理结果和免疫组化技术检测的9项基因表达指标(c-myc、MDM2、c-erbB-2、EGFR、p53、p14^ARF、p16^INK4、p21^WAF1、nm23)。观察患者的总生存率、局部区域性复发率和远处转移率。结果 全组5年生存率、局部区域性复发率和远处转移率分别为71．1％,11．1％和33．5％。单因素分析结果表明,肿瘤细胞的低分化是影响总生存率的不良预后因素(P=0.028);c—myc与c-erbB-2的高表达均为影响总生存率和远处转移率的不良预后因素;促进肿瘤增殖基因总分组的高分值(P=0．041)与综合肿瘤基因组的高分值(P=0．006),是总生存率的不良预后因素。多因素分析结果表明,肿瘤细胞的分化程度与综合肿瘤基因的联合表达,是影响总生存率的独立预后因素。本组结果还显示,已行化疗的高危组患者,其总生存率与无远处转移率均优于未行化疗者,但差异尚未见有显著性。结论 肿瘤细胞的分化程度与综合肿瘤基因的表达,可能是Ⅰ期NSCLC的预后因素。高危组患者进行术后化疗似有提高疗效的趋势。     

Prognostic features and treatment outcome in locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma following concurrent chemotherapy and radiotherapy

Purpose: Concurrent chemotherapy and radiotherapy (CCRT) are effective in treatment of locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). However, the prognostic factors after CCRT have not been evaluated. We therefore attempt to evaluate factors that influence treatment outcomes following CCRT.Methods and Materials: Seventy-four (5 in stage III and 69 in stage IV) patients with locoregionally advanced NPC were treated with CCRT. Radiotherapy was delivered either at 2 Gray (Gy) per fraction per day up to 70 Gy or 1.2 Gy, 2 fractions per day, up to 74.4 Gy. Concurrent chemotherapy consisted of cisplatin and 5-fluorouracil. Cox proportional-hazards model was used to analyze the prognostic factors which included age, gender, pathologic type, T, N, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and infiltration of the clivus.Results: The primary tumor control rate at 3 years was 96.7% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 92.5–100), distant metastasis–free survival 81.1% (95% CI: 70.6–91.6), disease-free survival 77.0% (95% CI: 65.3–88.7), and overall survival 79.8% (95% CI: 69.2–90.4) with a median follow-up interval of 29 months (range 15–74 months). Cox proportional-hazards model revealed that infiltration of the clivus and serum level of LDH before treatment were the most two important factors that predict distant metastases. Infiltration of the clivus and the serum LDH level greater than 410 U/L were strongly associated with distant metastasis–free survival (p = 0.0004 and p = 0.0002, respectively). When these two risk factors were considered together, no distant metastasis was observed in 40 patients with both intact clivus and LDH ≦410 U/L. On the contrary, 13 of the remaining 34 patients with at least one risk factor developed distant metastasis (p = 0.0001).Conclusion: Our study demonstrates that CCRT can improve the primary tumor control of 96.7% and disease-free survival of 77.0% at 3-year follow-up. Distant metastasis, however, is the major cause of failure. Infiltration of the clivus by the tumor and LDH greater than 410 U/L are the two independent and useful prognostic factors in patients with locoregionally advanced NPC who were treated with CCRT. Good- and poor-risk patients can be distinguished by virtue of their having both conditions.     

Clinicopathological features and prognostic impact of splenic hilar lymph node metastasis in proximal gastric carcinoma

BackgroundLymph nodes (LNs) at the splenic hilum (no. 10) are treated as regional LNs in proximal gastric carcinoma. However, patients with no.10 LN metastasis show a poor prognosis after curative surgery. This study aimed to investigate the prognostic impact of no.10 LN metastasis in proximal gastric carcinoma.MethodsWe retrospective reviewed 665 proximal gastric carcinoma patients who underwent total gastrectomy and D2 LN dissection. Clinicopathological features were compared between patients with and without no.10 LN metastasis. The prognostic value of no.10 LN metastasis was examined using Cox prognostic model.ResultsThere were 63 (9.5%) patients with no. 10 LN metastasis. No. 10 LN metastasis only existed in stage III/IV, and was significantly associated with greater curvature/circumferential tumor location, larger tumor size, B4 gross type, undifferentiated histology, lymphovascular invasion. The 5-year survival of no.10 LN metastasis group was 26%, which was significantly lower than those without no.10 LN metastasis (79%, p < 0.001). Patients with no. 10 LN metastasis also showed a significantly worse survival than those without in each tumor stage (stage III = 45% vs. 66%, p = 0.044, stage IV = 13% vs. 33%, p = 0.024). In the multivariate cox model, no.10 LN metastasis was an independent poor prognostic factor when adjusting for TNM stage and other prognostic factors.ConclusionThe prognosis of no.10 LN metastasis is as poor as that of distant metastasis. This suggests that no. 10 LN should rather be considered as non-regional LNs in the treatment of proximal gastric carcinoma.     

Radiation therapy for extramammary Paget's disease: treatment outcomes and prognostic factors

BackgroundExtramammary Paget's disease (EMPD) is a relatively rare malignancy, and there are few reports related to radiation therapy. In the present study, we investigated the outcome of radiation therapy for EMPD.Patients and methodsForty-one patients with EMPD in the genitalia underwent radiation therapy with curative intent. Fifteen patients had regional lymph node metastases before radiation therapy, but none had distant metastasis. Total doses of 45–80.2 Gy (median, 60 Gy) were delivered to tumor sites in 23–43 fractions (median, 33 fractions).ResultsAt a median follow-up period of 41 months, 16 patients had developed recurrences, including 5 with local progression within the radiation field and 12 with lymph node or/and distant metastases outside the radiation field. The local progression-free and disease-free rates were 88% and 55% at 3 years, and 82% and 46% at 5 years, respectively. Nine patients died at 6–73 months after irradiation; the causes of death were tumor progression in five patients, infectious pneumonia in two, renal failure in one and old age in one. The overall and cause-specific survival rates were 93% and 96% at 3 years, and 68% and 84% at 5 years, respectively. Tumor invasion into the dermis and regional lymph node metastasis were significant prognostic factors for both distant metastasis and survival. No therapy-related toxicities of grade ≥3 were observed.ConclusionsRadiation therapy is safe and effective for patients with EMPD. It appeared to contribute to prolonged survival owing to good tumor control, and to be a promising curative treatment option.     

Multifactorial analysis of the survival of patients with distant metastasis arising from primary extremity sarcoma

BACKGROUND: Despite optimal multimodality limb-sparing therapy for extremity soft tissue sarcoma (STS), a significant number of patients develop distant metastasis. The objective of this study was to analyze patterns of metastatic disease and define prognostic factors for survival in a large group of patients followed prospectively at a single institution. METHODS: Between July 1, 1982, and June 30, 1996, all adult patients admitted to the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center with primary extremity sarcoma were treated and prospectively followed. Patients who developed distant metastases constituted the study group. Prognostic factors were analyzed for postmetastasis survival. These included both factors related to the primary tumor and factors related to the pattern of metastasis. Postmetastasis survival was modeled using the Kaplan-Meier method. Statistical significance was evaluated using the log rank test for univariate analysis and the Cox proportional hazards model for multivariate analysis. RESULTS: During the study period, the authors admitted and treated 994 patients with primary extremity STS. The median follow-up was 33 months. Distant metastasis developed in 230 patients (23%). Median survival after distant metastasis was 11.6 months. The lungs were the first metastatic site in 169 patients (73%). Other first sites of metastasis included the skin and soft tissues of the head and neck, trunk, and extremities. There was no statistically significant difference in survival between patients with pulmonary and those with nonpulmonary metastatic disease. In multivariate analysis, resection of metastatic disease, the length of the disease free interval, the presence of a preceding local recurrence, and patient age > 50 years all were significant predictors of postmetastasis survival. Other factors that defined the primary tumor, including histologic grade, depth, and microscopic margins, were not associated with postmetastasis survival. CONCLUSIONS: Despite optimal multimodality therapy, 23% of the patients in this series with primary extremity sarcoma developed distant metastasis. Median survival after metastasis was approximately 1 year. After metastasis, the independent favorable factors that are associated with patient survival include resection of the metastases, a long disease free interval, the absence of preceding local recurrence, and patient age < 50 years. Although a definitive conclusion regarding the benefit of resection can be made only with a randomized clinical trial, these data suggest that resection of metastatic STS may contribute to patient survival, which in some cases may be long term.     

Predictive factors for early distant metastasis after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in locally advanced rectal cancer

BACKGROUNDDistant relapse is the leading cause of cancer-related death in locally advanced rectal cancer. Neoadjuvant chemoradiation (NACRT) followed by surgery inevitably delays delivery of systemic treatment. Some patients show early distant metastasis before systemic treatment.AIMTo identify the most effective treatments. We investigated prognostic factors for distant metastasis, especially early distant metastasis, using the standard treatment paradigm to identify the most effective treatments according to recurrence risk.METHODSFrom January 2015 through December 2019, rectal cancer patients who underwent NACRT for having clinical T 3-4 or clinical N 1-2 disease according to the 8^th American Joint Committee on Cancer staging system were included. Radiotherapy was delivered to the whole pelvis with concomitant chemotherapy. Patients received surgery 6-8 wk after completion of NACRT. Adjuvant chemotherapy was administered at the physician’s discretion. RESULTSA total of 127 patients received NACRT. Ninety-three patients (73.2%) underwent surgery. The R0 resection rate was 89.2% in all patients. Pathologic tumor and node downstaging rates were 41.9% and 76.3%. Half the patients (n = 69) received adjuvant chemotherapy after surgery. The 3-year distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) and overall survival (OS) rates were 81.7% and 83.5%. On univariate analyses, poorly differentiated tumors, > 5 cm, involvement of mesorectal fascia (MRF), or presence of extramural involvement (EMVI) were associated with worse DMFS and OS. Five patients showed distant metastasis at their first evaluation after NACRT. Patients with early distant metastasis were more likely to have poorly differentiated tumor (P = 0.025), tumors with involved MRF (P = 0.002), and EMVI (P = 0.012) than those who did not. CONCLUSIONEMVI, the involvement of MRF, and poor histologic grade were associated with early distant metastasis. In order to control distant metastasis and improve treatment outcome, selective use of neoadjuvant treatment according to individualized risk factors is necessary. Future studies are required to determine effective treatment strategies for patients at high risk for distant metastasis.     

A prognostic model predicts the risk of distant metastasis and death for patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma based on pre-treatment serum C-reactive protein and N-classification

PurposeChronic inflammation plays an important role in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) development and progression. Aim of this study is to determine whether inflammation-related parameters predict distant metastasis in NPC patients.Materials and methods335 newly diagnosed non-metastatic NPC patients were recruited. The values of the C-reactive protein (CRP), lactate dehydrogenase, albumin, globulin, white blood cell and neutrophil at baseline were measured.ResultsAmong the above six parameters, only CRP was independently associated with distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS). CRP concentration of advanced T-/TNM-classification patients was higher than those with early classification (P = 0.001). Higher-CRP (CRP ? 2.46 mg/L) predicted shorter overall survival, disease-free survival and DMFS than lower-CRP (CRP < 2.46 mg/L). In a multivariable model, higher-CRP and advanced N-classification were independent predictors of distant metastasis. On the basis of these two parameters, a prognostic NC-model was developed as following: (1) low-risk (early N-classification and lower-CRP); (2) intermediate-risk (advanced N-classification or higher-CRP) and (3) the high-risk distant metastasis (advanced N-classification and higher-CRP). When compared with the low-risk group, the hazard ratios (HRs) for distant metastasis and death for the intermediate-/high-risk patients were 3.6/16.1 and 2.26/7.61, respectively (both P < 0.001).ConclusionWe developed a new prognostic model based on CRP and N-classification for predicting distant metastasis and death of NPC patients, which may facilitate patient counselling and individualised treatment.     

Age at diagnosis and distant metastasis in breast cancer – A surprising inverse relationship

IntroductionPredictors for site of distant metastasis and impact on survival in breast cancer are incompletely understood.MethodsClinico-pathological risk factors for site of distant metastasis and survival were analysed in patients with invasive breast cancer treated between 1986 and 2006.ResultsOf 3553 patients, with median follow-up 6.32 years, 825 (23%) developed distant metastasis. The site of metastasis was bone in 196/825 (24%), viscera in 540/825 (65%) and unknown in 89 (11%). Larger primary invasive tumour size, higher tumour grade and axillary nodal positivity increased risk of metastasis to all sites. Lobular carcinoma was more likely to first metastasise to bone compared to invasive ductal carcinoma (NST). Oestrogen receptor (ER) negative, progesterone receptor (PgR) negative and/or Human epidermal growth factor (HER2) positive tumours were more likely to metastasise to viscera. A striking relationship between increasing age at diagnosis and a reduction in risk of distant metastasis to bone and viscera was observed.Median time to death from onset of metastatic disease was 1.52 (Interquartile range (IQR) 0.7–2.9) years for patients with bone metastasis and 0.7 (IQR 0.2–1.5) years for visceral metastasis. On multivariate analysis, despite the decrease in risk of distant metastasis with increasing age, there was an elevated hazard for death in patients >50 years at diagnosis of metastasis if they developed bone metastasis, with a similar trend observed in the >70 years age group if they developed visceral metastasis.ConclusionThese findings indicate that there are biological mechanisms underlying the impact of age on the development of distant metastasis and subsequent death. This may have important implications in the treatment of breast cancer.     

Validation of the Combination Gleason Score as an Independent Favorable Prognostic Factor in Prostate Cancer Treated With Dose-Escalated Radiation Therapy

PurposePrognostic factors for prostate cancer include tumor, node, metastases stage, pretreatment prostate-specific antigen, and pathology (via Gleason score [GS] or grade group). Of these, GS yields the largest effect on prostate cancer specific mortality. It was previously determined that those with cores with a mix of higher and lower GS at biopsy (which was termed a “ComboGS”) had decreased risk for prostate cancer specific mortality after either surgical or radiation treatment. We validate the effect of ComboGS in an independent cohort of patients with prostate cancer treated with definitive dose-escalated radiation therapy (DE-RT) at 2 institutions.Methods and MaterialsDE-RT was administered to 2539 men, of which 687 men had a ComboGS. To further ascertain the ComboGS effect we employed the modified Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (mCAPRA) score. Rates of biochemical event-free survival and distant metastasis-free survival were compared across CAPRA scores, with and without modification, and the prognostic value of the CAPRA scores was compared using Harrel's concordance index.ResultsOn univariate analysis in Gleason 7 to 10 patients the presence of ComboGS improved 10-year biochemical event-free survival from 76.6% to 82.4% (hazard ratio [HR], 0.75; confidence interval [CI], 0.59-0.96; P = .021), 10-year distant metastasis-free survival from 89.3% to 93.2% (HR, 0.57; CI, 0.39-0.85; P = .005), 10-year prostate cancer specific survival from 93.9% to 97.4% (HR, 0.39; CI, 0.21-0.7; P = .001), and 10-year overall survival from 65.7% to 75.6% (HR, 0.69; CI, 0.57-0.83; P < .001). Multivariable analysis also supported that ComboGS is protective for biochemical failure (HR, 0.64; CI, 0.50-0.83; P < .001), distant metastasis (HR, 0.42; CI, 0.28-0.63; P < .001), death from prostate cancer (HR, 0.32; CI, 0.17-0.58; P < .001), and overall mortality (HR, 0.65; CI, 0.54-0.79; P < .001). Additionally, adjusting the mCAPRA score for ComboGS decreased the risk of biochemical failure by nearly 30% (HR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.55-0.88; P = .003) and by 50% (HR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.37-0.80; P = .002) for distant metastasis.ConclusionsComboGS is a useful and readily available independent prognostic factor for all clinical endpoints evaluated. Moreover, the ComboGS can be used in conjunction with the extensively validated CAPRA scoring to better risk stratify patients being treated with definitive DE-RT for GS 7 to 10 disease.     

Clinicopathological and prognostic differences between mucinous gastric carcinoma and signet-ring cell carcinoma

Objective: To analyze the differences in clinicopathologic characteristics and prognosis between mucinous gastric carcinoma (MGC) and signet-ring cell carcinoma (SRCC). Methods: Clinicopathologic and prognostic data of 1,637 patients with histologically confirmed MGC or SRCC who received surgical operations in the Department of Gastroenterological Surgery, Beijing Cancer Hospital between December 2004 and December 2009 were retrospectively collected and analyzed. The clinicopathological features were analyzed statistically using χ 2 test. Survival was analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method and multivariate analysis of Cox proportional hazards regression model (backward, stepwise). Results: A total of 181 patients with gastric cancer (74 MGC, 107 SRCC) were included. MGC, when compared with SRCC, was featured by senile patients, stage III and IV, upper third stomach, large tumor size, positive lymph node metastasis, and positive lymphatic vascular invasion (P<0.05). The overall 5-year survival rate showed no difference between the two groups (48.8% vs. 44.8%, P>0.05). However, the survival rate for MGC patients was significant lower than that for SRCC patients when compared among the age <60 years, negative distant metastasis, and tumor localized at upper third stomach (P<0.05). Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models revealed that distant metastasis was a significant independent prognostic indicator in MGC group, and lymph node metastasis and distant metastasis was significant independent prognostic indicators in SRCC group. Conclusions: While compared with SRCC, MGC is associated with a more aggressive tumor biologic behavior. There is no statistically significant difference in distant metastasis, an independent prognostic indicator for both MGC and SRCC, which might be the reason for no significant difference of the overall survival rate between the patients with MGC and SRCC.     

A New and Easy-to-Use Survival Score for Patients Irradiated for Metastatic Epidural Spinal Cord Compression

PurposeA survival score was created in 2008 to improve treatment personalization of patients irradiated for metastatic epidural spinal cord compression (MESCC). Since then, targeted therapies improved survival of patients with cancer, which may decrease this score's predictive value. A new score appears necessary.Methods and MaterialsTwo hundred sixty-four patients receiving radiation therapy without surgery in prospective trials (2010-2021) were included. A dose-fractionation regimen plus 15 factors were analyzed: age, sex, tumor type, interval tumor diagnosis to MESCC, MESCC sites, affected vertebrae, additional bone lesions, other distant lesions (yes or no), number of organs involved by metastases, time developing motor deficits, ambulatory status, sensory function, sphincter dysfunction, pain, and distress. Six-month survival rates (%) of independent prognostic factors were divided by 10 and summed for each patient. The score was compared with the previous tool for predicting death ≤6 months and survival ≥6 months.ResultsIn a multivariate analysis, tumor type (P = .001), other distant lesions (P < .001), and ambulatory status (P < .001) were significant. Based on 6-month survival rates, 4 groups (8-9, 10-13, 14-17, and 18 points) were created with 6-month survival rates of 12.8%, 34.7%, 62.8%, and 90.0%, respectively (version A). For version B, “other distant lesions” was replaced by “number of organs involved by metastases.” Version B included 4 groups (8-10, 11-14, 15-16, and 17 points) with 6-month survival rates of 11.1%, 42.0%, 68.6%, and 91.7%, respectively. Positive predictive values to predict death ≤6 months were 87.2% (version A) and 88.9% (version B) versus 76.6% (3 groups) and 84.6% (5 groups) for the previous score. Positive predictive values to predict survival ≥6 months were 90.0% and 91.7% versus 59.0% and 64.3%.ConclusionsBoth versions of the new score were more precise than the previous tool. Version B appears slightly superior to version A but requires more extensive diagnostic staging that may not be readily available when emergently treating.     

Pattern of distant metastases and predictive nomograms in colorectal mucinous adenocarcinoma: a SEER analysis

BackgroundWe evaluated the metastatic patterns and explored the prognostic value of distant metastasis pattern in patients with metastatic colorectal mucinous adenocarcinoma (MC) using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database.MethodsBetween 2010 and 2015, newly diagnosed colorectal MC patients were selected using the SEER database. Patient prognosis was compared based on the clinicopathological parameters, treatment method, and the site and number of metastatic organs. Cox analyses were used to identify factors associated with overall survival (OS). A nomogram was built to predict the patient’s survival. Harrell’s concordance index (c-index) and calibration curves were used to analyze the discriminative ability of the prognostic factors.ResultsOf 3,088 patients diagnosed with colorectal MC, the liver was the only metastatic organ in 78.4% (997/1,271) of all liver metastasis cases, the lung was the only metastatic organ in 41.0% (164/400) of all lung metastasis cases, bone was the only metastatic organ in 26.6% (29/109) of all bone metastasis cases, and the brain was the only metastatic organ in 23.5% (4/17) of all brain metastasis cases. Compared with the untreated cases, those treated with chemotherapy, surgery, and radiotherapy had better OS (P<0.001). There were marked OS differences (P<0.001) between patients with and without liver and bone metastases. Patients with bone metastasis had the best survival, while those with brain metastasis had the worst survival (P<0.001). Patients with one metastatic site had better prognosis compared to those with two or three (P<0.001). Patients with liver metastasis had the best survival, while those with bone and brain metastasis had the worst survival (P<0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that age <65 years, non-black race, grade I, N0 stage, chemotherapy, radiation, surgery, liver metastasis, and bone metastasis were independent prognostic factors. A nomogram was constructed to predict survival probability. The c-index value was up to 0.745. The calibration plot showed that the nomogram was clinically useful.ConclusionsMetastatic MC (mMC) patients had a characteristic distant metastasis pattern. This study constructed a new and sufficiently accurate prognostic model of mMC based on population-based data. These findings can be utilized to predict prognosis and guide mMC patient management.     

结直肠癌肝转移的预后分析

目的　探讨结直肠癌肝转移的预后因素。方法　收集６７例结直肠癌肝转移患者的临床资料及随访情况,用Ｋａｐｌａｎ-Ｍｅｉｅｒ法及Ｌｏｇ-ｒａｎｋ检验进行单因素分析,将有统计学意义的因素纳入Ｃｏｘ回归模型进行多因素分析。结果　６７例患者的中位生存时间为１０个月,Ｋａｐｌａｎ-Ｍｅｉｅｒ单因素分析及Ｌｏｇ-ｒａｎｋ检验结果显示原发肿瘤分化程度、肝转移灶数目、肝转移灶最大直径、肝外转移灶数目、针对肝转移灶的治疗方式等５个因素对其预后有显著意义,１６例≥７０岁且＜８０岁老年进展期结直肠癌患者中化疗组的生存期并不优于最佳支持治疗组,Ｃｏｘ回归显示上述５个因素均为肝转移患者的独立预后相关因素。结论　原发肿瘤分化越差,患者的预后越差;肝转移多发病灶组较单发病灶组以及肝转移灶最大直径≥５ｃｍ组较＜５ｃｍ组的远期生存率低;合并肝外转移灶越多,预后亦越差;采用局部治疗联合全身化疗的患者比采用单一方法治疗者的生存期长。     

新疆146例分化型甲状腺癌患者的预后因素分析

为了探讨影响新疆地区分化型甲状腺癌(DTC)患者预后的相关因素,回顾性分析新疆医科大学第一附属医院2002-01-2006-12收治的146例DTC患者的临床资料,用Kaplan-Meier法分析患者的总生存率,用Log-rank检验和Cox模型对影响患者生存的临床病理因素和治疗方法进行单因素和多因素分析.患者5年总生存率为91.8％.单因素分析结果显示,性别、年龄、族别、地区分布、原发肿瘤大小、淋巴结转移、远处转移、肿瘤侵犯程度、口服甲状腺素片以及吸碘治疗,10个因素是患者预后的影响因素(P值均＜0.05);多因素分析显示,年龄、淋巴结转移、远处转移以及肿瘤侵犯程度为影响患者预后的独立因素.初步研究结果提示,对于新疆不同民族DTC的患者,年龄＜45岁、无远处转移、无淋巴结转移及包膜内型患者的生存率高,预后好.     

Results of a surgical resection for patients with stage IV non--small-cell lung cancer

PurposeThis study retrospectively investigated the clinical significance of surgical treatment for stage IV non–small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC).SubjectsThere were 36 patients who underwent surgical resection for stage IV NSCLC between 1999 and 2008.ResultsThe patients included 22 males and 14 females. All patients had either synchronous distant metastasis or pleural dissemination. The mean age of the patients was 65.8 years (range, 18 to 90 years). The histological types included 29 adenocarcinomas, 5 squamous-cell carcinomas and 2 large-cell carcinomas. The organs of metastasis were bone in 5 patients, brain in 4, adrenal gland in 4, axillary lymph nodes in 3, liver in 2, and 1 patient had a contralateral pulmonary metastasis. The number of metastases was one site in 13, two sites in 3, three sites in 1, and five sites in 2 patients. The patients with bone metastasis were treated with radiation, and the patients with brain metastasis underwent stereotaxic radiosurgery. The patients with either adrenal metastasis, axillary lymph node metastasis, or contralateral lung metastasis underwent surgical resection. Among the patients with distant metastasis, the 5-year survival rate was 30.1 %. There were 17 patients with pleural dissemination. The 5-year survival rate in these patients was 25.3%. The overall 5-year survival rate after surgery in the patients with stage IV disease was 26.8%.ConclusionSelected patients who can undergo surgical resection for the primary tumor and effective local therapy for metastatic lesions still have a chance to obtain long-term survival. Surgical treatment for NSCLC with oligometastatic disease can be considered as one arm of multidisciplinary treatment.     

Extra-nodal metastasis should be classified separately from lymph node metastasis in gastric cancer

IntroductionExtra-nodal metastasis (ENM) is defined as a tumor nodule without histological evidence of a lymph node structure. Although ENM has pathological features distinct from those of metastatic lymph nodes, both ENM and metastatic lymph nodes are considered within the same category in the pathological nodal (pN) classification. This study aimed to clarify the clinicopathological characteristics and prognostic relevance of ENM in gastric cancer patients who underwent curative gastrectomy.Materials and methodsWe retrospectively evaluated 1207 Japanese patients who underwent curative gastrectomy at a single center between January 2009 and December 2013. All resected specimens were fixed in 10% formalin, processed, and stained using hematoxylin and eosin, and subsequently reviewed by two pathologists. Survival times were analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method, and independent prognostic factors were identified using a Cox proportional hazards regression model.ResultsPatients who were ENM-positive had significantly poorer overall survival; multivariable analysis revealed that independent prognostic factors were older age (hazard ratio [HR]: 3.68, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.60–5.20), higher pathological tumor classification (HR: 2.28, 95% CI: 1.43–3.62), presence of metastatic lymph nodes (HR: 1.57, 95% CI: 1.0–2.36), and ENM-positive status (HR: 2.33, 95% CI: 1.48–3.66). ENM-positive patients had similar survival outcomes to those of ENM-negative patients with ≥16 metastatic lymph nodes.ConclusionsAmong Japanese patients with gastric cancer who underwent curative gastrectomy, ENM was an independent prognostic factor with a prognostic significance different from that of lymph node metastasis. These results suggest that ENM and lymph node metastasis should be classified separately.     

A Prognostic Scoring Model for the Utility of Induction Chemotherapy Prior to Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy in Esophageal Cancer

ObjectivesThe aim of this study was to identify patients with esophageal cancer who may benefit from induction chemotherapy (IC) before neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) on the basis of a prognostic scoring model.MethodsBetween 1998 and 2015, 535 patients with esophageal cancer who underwent nCRT were included for analysis, including 218 patients who received IC before nCRT (IC group) and 317 patients who did not receive IC (non-IC group). A prognostic scoring model was developed to predict disease-free survival (DFS) on the basis of a Cox proportional hazards model.ResultsThe median follow-up time was 63.5 months (range 8.0–178.5) for survivors. The 5-year DFS rates were similar between the IC and non-IC groups (53.7% vs. 45.1%, p = 0.196). Multivariate analysis determined that histologic grade, tumor location, baseline positron emission tomography maximum standard uptake value, and lymph node size were independent prognostic factors for DFS. A prognostic scoring system was constructed by using these four factors, with the total score ranging from 0 to 6.2. When the median value was used as a cutoff, low-risk (≤3.5) and high-risk (>3.5) groups were identified. In the high-risk group, patients who received IC had a nonsignificantly higher pathologic complete response rate (p = 0.272) and a significantly better DFS (p = 0.03) than patients who did not receive IC. After propensity score matching, the high-risk group demonstrated a significantly improved DFS with IC, a benefit that was not observed in the low-risk group.ConclusionsOn the basis of the prognostic scoring model, the addition of IC to nCRT may provide a DFS benefit in high-risk patients with a risk score higher than 3.5. Prospective validation is warranted.