The way forward

Good public-health decisionmaking is dependent on reliable and timely statistics on births and deaths (including the medical causes of death). All high-income countries, without exception, have national civil registration systems that record these events and generate regular, frequent, and timely vital statistics. By contrast, these statistics are not available in many low-income and lower-middle-income countries, even though it is in such settings that premature mortality is most severe and the need for robust evidence to back decisionmaking most critical. Civil registration also has a range of benefits for individuals in terms of legal status, and the protection of economic, social, and human rights. However, over the past 30 years, the global health and development community has failed to provide the needed technical and financial support to countries to develop civil registration systems. There is no single blueprint for establishing and maintaining such systems and ensuring the availability of sound vital statistics. Each country faces a different set of challenges, and strategies must be tailored accordingly. There are steps that can be taken, however, and we propose an approach that couples the application of methods to generate better vital statistics in the short term with capacity-building for comprehensive civil registration systems in the long run.     

Identifying deaths from AIDS in South Africa

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the HIV/AIDS deaths misclassified to AIDS-related conditions in South Africa. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of vital registration data. METHODS: Cause-specific death rates for 1996 and 2000-2001 were calculated using vital registration cause-of-death profiles applied to a model (ASSA2000) estimate of total mortality rates by age and sex. The difference in the age-specific death rates for these two periods was examined to identify conditions where there was a noticeable increase in mortality following the same age pattern as the HIV deaths, thus likely to be misclassified AIDS deaths. RESULTS: The increase in the age-specific death rates for HIV-related deaths showed a distinct age pattern, which has been observed elsewhere. Out of the 22 potential causes of death investigated, there were nine that increased in the same distinct age pattern (tuberculosis, pneumonia, diarrhoea, meningitis, other respiratory disease, non-infective gastroenteritis, other infectious and parasitic diseases, deficiency anaemias and protein energy malnutrition) and could be considered AIDS-related conditions. The increase in these conditions accounted for 61% of the total deaths related to HIV/AIDS. When added to the deaths classified as HIV-related on the death certificate, the total accounts for 93% of the ASSA2000 model estimates of the number of AIDS deaths in 2000. CONCLUSION: As a large proportion of AIDS deaths appear to be classified to AIDS-related conditions, without reference to HIV, interpretation of death statistics in South Africa cannot be made on face value as a large proportion of deaths caused by HIV infection are misclassified.     

Stillbirths: the vision for 2020

Stillbirth is a common adverse pregnancy outcome, with nearly 3 million third-trimester stillbirths occurring worldwide each year. 98% occur in low-income and middle-income countries, and more than 1 million stillbirths occur in the intrapartum period, despite many being preventable. Nevertheless, stillbirth is practically unrecognised as a public health issue and few data are reported. In this final paper in the Stillbirths Series, we call for inclusion of stillbirth as a recognised outcome in all relevant international health reports and initiatives. We ask every country to develop and implement a plan to improve maternal and neonatal health that includes a reduction in stillbirths, and to count stillbirths in their vital statistics and other health outcome surveillance systems. We also ask for increased investment in stillbirth-related research, and especially research aimed at identifying and addressing barriers to the aversion of stillbirths within the maternal and neonatal health systems of low-income and middle-income countries. Finally, we ask all those interested in reducing stillbirths to join with advocates for the improvement of other pregnancy-related outcomes, for mothers and their offspring, so that a united front for improved pregnancy and neonatal care for all will become a reality.     

Measures of Health and Disease in Africa: Are Current Methods Giving Us Useful Information About Trends in Cardiovascular Diseases?

An enormous burst of interest in the public health burden from chronic disease in Africa has emerged as a consequence of efforts to estimate global population health. Detailed estimates are now published for Africa as a whole and each country on the continent. These data have formed the basis for warnings about sharp increases in cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the coming decades. In this essay we briefly examine the trajectory of social development on the continent and its consequences for the epidemiology of CVD and potential control strategies. Since full vital registration has only been implemented in segments of South Africa and the island nations of Seychelles and Mauritius – formally part of WHO-AFRO – mortality data are extremely limited. Numerous sample surveys have been conducted but they often lack standardization or objective measures of health status. Trend data are even less informative. However, using the best quality data available, age-standardized trends in CVD are downward, and in the case of stroke, sharply so. While acknowledging that the extremely limited available data cannot be used as the basis for inference to the continent, we raise the concern that general estimates based on imputation to fill in the missing mortality tables may be even more misleading. No immediate remedies to this problem can be identified, however bilateral collaborative efforts to strength local educational institutions and governmental agencies rank as the highest priority for near term development.     

Genetic markers of type 2 diabetes: Progress in genome‐wide association studies and clinical application for risk prediction

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) has become a leading public health challenge worldwide. To date, a total of 83 susceptibility loci for T2D have been identified by genome‐wide association studies (GWAS). Application of meta‐analysis and modern genotype imputation approaches to GWAS data from diverse ethnic populations has been key in the effort to discover T2D loci. Genetic information is expected to play a vital role in the prediction of T2D, and many efforts have been made to develop T2D risk models that include both conventional and genetic risk factors. Yet, because most T2D genetic variants identified have small effect size individually (10%–20% increased risk of T2D per risk allele), their clinical utility remains unclear. Most studies report that a genetic risk score combining multiple T2D genetic variants does not substantially improve T2D risk prediction beyond conventional risk factors. In this article, we summarize the recent progress of T2D GWAS and further review the incremental predictive performance of genetic markers for T2D.     

Maternal and child health in Brazil: progress and challenges

In the past three decades, Brazil has undergone rapid changes in major social determinants of health and in the organisation of health services. In this report, we examine how these changes have affected indicators of maternal health, child health, and child nutrition. We use data from vital statistics, population censuses, demographic and health surveys, and published reports. In the past three decades, infant mortality rates have reduced substantially, decreasing by 5·5% a year in the 1980s and 1990s, and by 4·4% a year since 2000 to reach 20 deaths per 1000 livebirths in 2008. Neonatal deaths account for 68% of infant deaths. Stunting prevalence among children younger than 5 years decreased from 37% in 1974-75 to 7% in 2006-07. Regional differences in stunting and child mortality also decreased. Access to most maternal-health and child-health interventions increased sharply to almost universal coverage, and regional and socioeconomic inequalities in access to such interventions were notably reduced. The median duration of breastfeeding increased from 2·5 months in the 1970s to 14 months by 2006-07. Official statistics show stable maternal mortality ratios during the past 10 years, but modelled data indicate a yearly decrease of 4%, a trend which might not have been noticeable in official reports because of improvements in death registration and the increased number of investigations into deaths of women of reproductive age. The reasons behind Brazil's progress include: socioeconomic and demographic changes (economic growth, reduction in income disparities between the poorest and wealthiest populations, urbanisation, improved education of women, and decreased fertility rates), interventions outside the health sector (a conditional cash transfer programme and improvements in water and sanitation), vertical health programmes in the 1980s (promotion of breastfeeding, oral rehydration, and immunisations), creation of a tax-funded national health service in 1988 (coverage of which expanded to reach the poorest areas of the country through the Family Health Program in the mid-1990s); and implementation of many national and state-wide programmes to improve child health and child nutrition and, to a lesser extent, to promote women's health. Nevertheless, substantial challenges remain, including overmedicalisation of childbirth (nearly 50% of babies are delivered by caesarean section), maternal deaths caused by illegal abortions, and a high frequency of preterm deliveries.     

Surveillance methods to monitor the impact of HIV therapy programmes in resource-constrained countries

To monitor the collective national impact of initiatives to expand the availability of HIV therapy including antiretroviral treatment (ART) countries need to monitor the proportion of HIV-infected individuals who are receiving HIV therapy, whether morbidity is decreasing, and HIV-infected individuals are experiencing increased survival, and if there is an overall decrease in the number of individuals dying of HIV. However, in many resource-constrained countries these data are limited or unavailable. Morbidity surveillance relies primarily on AIDS case reporting, but severe under-reporting limits the usefulness of these data. A variety of AIDS case definitions are in use and case definitions do not concur with clinical staging definitions. Harmonizing AIDS case definitions with clinical staging, providing resources and training to improve reporting, and using other surveillance systems, such as tuberculosis programme data to monitor morbidity are urgently needed. A cohort analysis of individuals in ART programmes to follow the progress and outcomes of these patients longitudinally is important to monitor quality of care and impact. Because the rapid scale-up of ART programmes may result in HIV drug resistance, surveillance for drug resistant viruses is also required. Very few resource-constrained countries have well-functioning vital registration systems to assess mortality trends and cause-specific mortality. Alternative approaches to measuring mortality trends, such as sample vital registration with verbal autopsy should be considered. Strong commitments from governments, international organizations and other partners are needed to establish and strengthen the HIV morbidity and mortality monitoring surveillance systems.     

Accountability in the global response to HIV: measuring progress, driving change

Accountability implies that institutions and individuals are answerable for their commitments and responsibilities. The concept of accountability is highly relevant in the global response to HIV/AIDS because governments, donors and other actors have often failed to keep their commitments to expand funding and service delivery levels. Many governments have not been held accountable for failing to address the HIV-related needs of their populations adequately. Accountability is about more than passing judgement. Effective accountability mechanisms can be powerful tools to improve service delivery by providing constructive assessments and motivating decision makers to avoid negative external critiques. An impressive variety of HIV-related accountability projects have emerged over the past few years, the most prominent being the ongoing monitoring of government compliance with the United Nations General Assembly Special Session (UNGASS) Declaration of Commitment. Other accountability efforts are essential in order to capture perspectives and priorities outside of governments and aid agencies. Many civil society-based accountability projects are now tracking HIV policy, service delivery and funding levels. We make several suggestions to increase the impact of accountability efforts, including connecting accountability to sustained advocacy, holding multiple actors accountable, continually assessing what measures of success will be most powerful in driving improved outcomes, and supporting and building the capacity of civil society monitoring efforts. We also suggest exploring how the International AIDS Conferences could serve as an expanded platform for accountability.     

Towards good practice for health statistics: lessons from the Millennium Development Goal health indicators

Health statistics are at the centre of an increasing number of worldwide health controversies. Several factors are sharpening the tension between the supply and demand for high quality health information, and the health-related Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) provide a high-profile example. With thousands of indicators recommended but few measured well, the worldwide health community needs to focus its efforts on improving measurement of a small set of priority areas. Priority indicators should be selected on the basis of public-health significance and several dimensions of measurability. Health statistics can be divided into three types: crude, corrected, and predicted. Health statistics are necessary inputs to planning and strategic decision making, programme implementation, monitoring progress towards targets, and assessment of what works and what does not. Crude statistics that are biased have no role in any of these steps; corrected statistics are preferred. For strategic decision making, when corrected statistics are unavailable, predicted statistics can play an important part. For monitoring progress towards agreed targets and assessment of what works and what does not, however, predicted statistics should not be used. Perhaps the most effective method to decrease controversy over health statistics and to encourage better primary data collection and the development of better analytical methods is a strong commitment to provision of an explicit data audit trail. This initiative would make available the primary data, all post-data collection adjustments, models including covariates used for farcasting and forecasting, and necessary documentation to the public.     

Mathematical modelling: a tool for hospital infection control

Health-care-associated infections caused by antibiotic-resistant pathogens have become a menace in hospitals worldwide and infection control measures have lead to vastly different outcomes in different countries. During the past 6 years, a theoretical framework based on mathematical models has emerged that provides solid and testable hypotheses and opens the road to a quantitative assessment of the main obstructions that undermine current efforts to control the spread of health-care-associated infections in hospitals and communities. We aim to explain to a broader audience of professionals in health care, infection control, and health systems administration some of these models that can improve the understanding of the hidden dynamics of health-care-associated infections. We also appraise their usefulness and limitations as an innovative research and decision tool for control purposes.     

Global health status: two steps forward, one step back

Impressive improvements have occurred in global health status in the past century. Unfortunately, these improvements have not been shared equally and health in equalities within and among countries are entrenched. The fragility of health gains has been seen in response to economic, political, and social changes changes, and civil disruption. The limitations of health-status measure hinder our ability to map health trends except in the simplest way. There is an urgent need for better regional and national health surveillance systems to underpin efforts to address the complex mixture of old and new health concerns.     

Salaries and incomes of health workers in sub-Saharan Africa

Public-sector health workers are vital to the functioning of health systems. We aimed to investigate pay structures for health workers in the public sector in sub-Saharan Africa; the adequacy of incomes for health workers; the management of public-sector pay; and the fiscal and macroeconomic factors that impinge on pay policy for the public sector. Because salary differentials affect staff migration and retention, we also discuss pay in the private sector. We surveyed historical trends in the pay of civil servants in Africa over the past 40 years. We used some empirical data, but found that accurate and complete data were scarce. The available data suggested that pay structures vary across countries, and are often structured in complex ways. Health workers also commonly use other sources of income to supplement their formal pay. The pay and income of health workers varies widely, whether between countries, by comparison with cost of living, or between the public and private sectors. To optimise the distribution and mix of health workers, policy interventions to address their pay and incomes are needed. Fiscal constraints to increased salaries might need to be overcome in many countries, and non-financial incentives improved.     

Brief Report: Early assessment of the relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and births in high-income countries

Drawing on past pandemics, scholars have suggested that the COVID-19 pandemic will bring about fertility decline. Evidence from actual birth data has so far been scarce. This brief report uses data on vital statistics from a selection of high-income countries, including the United States. The pandemic has been accompanied by a significant drop in crude birth rates beyond that predicted by past trends in 7 out of the 22 countries considered, with particularly strong declines in southern Europe: Italy (−9.1%), Spain (−8.4%), and Portugal (−6.6%). Substantial heterogeneities are, however, observed.     

Successes and failures in the control of infectious diseases in Brazil: social and environmental context, policies, interventions, and research needs

Despite pronounced reductions in the number of deaths due to infectious diseases over the past six decades, infectious diseases are still a public health problem in Brazil. In this report, we discuss the major successes and failures in the control of infectious diseases in Brazil, and identify research needs and policies to further improve control or interrupt transmission. Control of diseases such as cholera, Chagas disease, and those preventable by vaccination has been successful through efficient public policies and concerted efforts from different levels of government and civil society. For these diseases, policies dealt with key determinants (eg, the quality of water and basic sanitation, vector control), provided access to preventive resources (such as vaccines), and successfully integrated health policies with broader social policies. Diseases for which control has failed (such as dengue fever and visceral leishmaniasis) are vector-borne diseases with changing epidemiological profiles and major difficulties in treatment (in the case of dengue fever, no treatment is available). Diseases for which control has been partly successful have complex transmission patterns related to adverse environmental, social, economic, or unknown determinants; are sometimes transmitted by insect vectors that are difficult to control; and are mostly chronic diseases with long infectious periods that require lengthy periods of treatment.     

Disparities in the Circumstances of Asthma Deaths in Maryland

The reasons for significant disparities in asthma mortality are unclear. Maryland vital statistics and medical examiner data were used to examine timing, location, and circumstances of asthma deaths. We found that unexplained deaths increased substantially over the past 10 years and that young, male, and black asthmatics were more likely to die before hospital admission. Factors contributing to disparities included better availability of anti-inflammatory medications among whites versus blacks, and a higher incidence of positive toxicology screens among males versus females. Disparities in asthma mortality might be reduced through efforts to optimize asthma treatment and reduce illicit drug use.     

Disparities in the Circumstances of Asthma Deaths in Maryland

The reasons for significant disparities in asthma mortality are unclear. Maryland vital statistics and medical examiner data were used to examine timing, location, and circumstances of asthma deaths. We found that unexplained deaths increased substantially over the past 10 years and that young, male, and black asthmatics were more likely to die before hospital admission. Factors contributing to disparities included better availability of anti-inflammatory medications among whites versus blacks, and a higher incidence of positive toxicology screens among males versus females. Disparities in asthma mortality might be reduced through efforts to optimize asthma treatment and reduce illicit drug use.     

结核病死亡相关监测系统的比较研究

目的 了解与结核病死亡率评价有关的监测系统的特点,以及在结核病死亡监测方面的优劣。 方法 采取描述性方法,对全国疾病监测系统（DSPs）、疾病监测信息报告管理系统（DSIMs）、结核病管理信息系统（TBMIs）等3个监测系统在监测目的、覆盖人群、信息收集、死亡判定、数据分析与利用、质量控制等6个方面进行了比较。同时,比较2008年全国疾病监测系统和结核病管理信息系统监测的结核病死亡的数据,以及典型调查的2个县（区）在结核病死亡登记个案资料方面的差异。 结果 全国疾病监测系统是以死因监测为目的的生命登记系统,在结核病死亡监测方面优于其他系统;典型分析显示,北京市东城区2008年3个监测系统（全国疾病监测系统、疾病监测信息报告管理系统、结核病管理信息系统）登记的结核病死亡监测个案分别为9、1、0,辽宁阜新县登记的结核病死亡个案分别为10、2、2,其全国疾病监测系统登记的结核病死亡患者数均高于其他2个系统。 结论 可以利用全国疾病监测系统的结核病死亡监测数据来分析全国结核病死亡趋势和特点。     

Newer imaging methods in chest radiography

In recent years the application of computers to chest radiography has resulted in a wide variety of innovative research. Major research efforts have resulted in the development of new types of x-ray detectors, such as storage phosphor technology, for use with computers. Storage phosphor imaging is one of the most promising new techniques, and almost 100 systems have been installed worldwide. Radiologists are quickly evaluating the image quality provided by this new detector system, which has the potential to improve image quality. It has wide latitude and is coupled with a computer to perform image processing. Another promising technology, originally studied in the form of scan equalization radiography, is now commercially available in the form of advanced multiple-beam equalization radiography. This film technique uses computers to modulate the x-ray exposure to take maximum advantage of the imaging capabilities of radiographic film. Digital solid-state detectors have been studied in conjunction with computerized image enhancement systems. These currently show improvement in nodule detection and quantification of the calcium content of a lesion. Application of large image intensifiers to a digital image system is being studied, but there are currently limitations on spatial resolution.     

Image integration in electroanatomic mapping

Abstract Over the past five years, integration of the pre-procedural MR/CT images with a 3D electroanatomic mapping system has been developed to facilitate catheter ablation of clinical arrhythmias. It presents a significant advantage over the less-detailed surrogate geometry created by the 3D mapping systems. The process of image integration consists of pre-procedural imaging, image segmentation and image registration. Clinical studies have demonstrated the feasibility and accuracy of the use of image integration to guide catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation (AF). Accurate registration of the 3D left atrial MR/CT image to the real-time catheter mapping space can be technically challenging. Several important considerations should be taken into account to minimize registration error. Enhanced ability of catheter navigation with image integration may improve the efficacy and safety of anatomically based ablation strategies such as ablations of AF and nonidiopathic ventricular tachycardia. New developments in the field include integration of pathophysiologic as well as real-time anatomic information to the 3D mapping systems, and the use of new navigation system to improve registration. Drs Dong and Dickfeld are consultants of and received research grants from Biosense Webster Inc.