Breastfeeding: the hidden barrier in Côte d'Ivoire's quest to eliminate mother‐to‐child transmission of HIV

Introduction

Côte d''Ivoire has one of the worst HIV/AIDS epidemics in West Africa. This study sought to understand how HIV-positive women''s life circumstances and interactions with the public health care system in Bouaké, Côte d''Ivoire, influence their self-reported ability to adhere to antiretroviral prophylaxis during pregnancy.

Methods

Semistructured interviews were conducted with 24 HIV-positive women not eligible for antiretroviral therapy and five health care workers recruited from four public clinics in which prevention of mother-to-child transmission services had been integrated into routine antenatal care.

Results

Self-reported adherence to prophylaxis is high, but women struggle to observe (outdated) guidelines for rapid infant weaning. Women''s positive interactions with health providers, their motivation to protect their infants and the availability of free antiretrovirals seem to override most potential barriers to prophylaxis adherence.

Conclusions

This study reveals the importance of considering the full continuum of prevention of mother-to-child transmission interventions, including infant feeding, instead of focussing primarily on prophylaxis for the mother and newborn.     

Disengagement of HIV-positive pregnant and postpartum women from antiretroviral therapy services: a cohort study

Introduction

Recent international guidelines call for expanded access to triple-drug antiretroviral therapy (ART) in HIV-positive women during pregnancy and postpartum. However, high levels of non-adherence and/or disengagement from care may attenuate the benefits of ART for HIV transmission and maternal health. We examined the frequency and predictors of disengagement from care among women initiating ART during pregnancy in Cape Town, South Africa.

Methods

We used routine medical records to follow-up pregnant women initiating ART within prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV services in Cape Town, South Africa. Outcomes assessed through six months postpartum were (1) disengagement (no attendance within 56 days of a scheduled visit) and (2) missed visits (returning to care 14–56 days late for a scheduled visit).

Results

A total of 358 women (median age, 28 years; median gestational age, 26 weeks) initiated ART during pregnancy. By six months postpartum, 24% of women (n=86) had missed at least one visit and an additional 32% (n=115) had disengaged from care; together, 49% of women had either missed a visit or had disengaged by six months postpartum. Disengagement was more than twice as frequent postpartum compared to in the antenatal period (6.2 vs. 2.4 per 100 woman-months, respectively; p<0.0001). In a proportional hazards model, later gestational age at initiation (HR: 1.04; 95% CI: 1.00–1.07; p=0.030) and being newly diagnosed with HIV (HR: 1.57; 95% CI: 1.07–2.33; p=0.022) were significant predictors of disengagement after adjusting for patient age, starting CD4 cell count and site of ART initiation.

Conclusions

These results demonstrate that missed visits and disengagement from care occur frequently, particularly post-delivery, among HIV-positive women initiating ART during pregnancy. Women who are newly diagnosed with HIV may be particularly vulnerable and there is an urgent need for interventions both to promote retention overall, as well as targeting women newly diagnosed with HIV during pregnancy.     

Tuberculosis infection and disease in South African adolescents with perinatally acquired HIV on antiretroviral therapy: a cohort study

IntroductionThere are limited data on Tuberculosis (TB) in adolescents with perinatally acquired HIV (APHIV). We examined the incidence and determinants of TB infection and disease in the Cape Town Adolescent Antiretroviral Cohort (CTAAC).MethodsYouth between nine and fourteen years on antiretroviral therapy (ART) for more than six months in public sector care, and age‐matched HIV‐negative adolescents, were enrolled between July 2013 through March 2015 and followed six‐monthly. Data were censored on 31 October 2018. Symptom screening, chest radiograph, viral load, CD4 count, QuantiFERON (QFT) and sputum for Xpert MTB/RIF, microscopy, culture and sensitivity were performed annually. TB infection was defined by a QFT of >0.35 IU/mL. TB diagnosis was defined as confirmed (culture or Xpert MTB/RIF positive) or unconfirmed (clinical diagnosis and started on TB treatment). Analyses examined the incidence and determinants of TB infection and disease.ResultsOverall 496 HIV+ and 103 HIV‐negative participants (median age at enrolment 12 years (interquartile range, IQR 10.6 to 13.3) were followed for a median of 3.1 years (IQR 3.0 to 3.4); 50% (298/599) were male. APHIV initiated ART at median age 4.4 years (IQR 2.1 to 7.6). At enrolment, 376/496 (76%) had HIV viral load <40 copies/mL, median CD4 count was 713 cells/mm³ and 179/559 (32%) were QFT+, with no difference by HIV status (APHIV 154/468, 33%; HIV negative 25/91, 27%; p = 0.31). The cumulative QFT+ prevalence was similar (APHIV 225/492, 46%; 95%CI 41% to 50%; HIV negative 44/98, 45%; 95% CI 35% to 55%; p = 0.88). APHIV had a higher incidence of all TB disease than HIV‐negative adolescents (2.2/100PY, 95% CI 1.6 to 3.1 vs. 0.3/100PY, 95% CI 0.04 to 2.2; IRR 7.36, 95% CI 1.01 to 53.55). The rate of bacteriologically confirmed TB in APHIV was 1.3/100 PY compared to 0.3/100PY for HIV‐negative adolescents, suggesting a fourfold increased risk of developing TB disease in APHIV despite access to ART. In addition, a positive QFT at enrolment was not predictive of TB in this population.ConclusionsHigh incidence rates of TB disease occur in APHIV despite similar QFT conversion rates to HIV‐negative adolescents. Strategies to prevent TB in this vulnerable group must be strengthened.     

The effect of a Mentor Mothers program on prevention of vertical transmission of HIV outcomes in Zambézia Province,Mozambique: a retrospective interrupted time series analysis

IntroductionMentor Mothers (MM) provide peer support to pregnant and postpartum women living with HIV (PPWH) and their infants with perinatal HIV exposure (IPE) throughout the cascade of prevention of vertical transmission (PVT) services. MM were implemented in Zambézia Province, Mozambique starting in August 2017. This evaluation aimed to determine the effect of MM on PVT outcomes.MethodsA retrospective interrupted time series analysis was done using routinely collected aggregate data from 85 public health facilities providing HIV services in nine districts of Zambézia. All PPWH (and their IPE) who initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART) from August 2016 through April 2019 were included. Outcomes included the proportion per month per district of: PPWH retained in care 12 months after ART initiation, PPWH with viral suppression and IPE with HIV DNA PCR test positivity by 9 months of age. The effect of MM on outcomes was assessed using logistic regression.ResultsThe odds of 12‐month retention increased 1.5% per month in the pre‐MM period, compared to a monthly increase of 7.6% with‐MM (35–61% pre‐MM, 56–72% with‐MM; p < 0.001). The odds of being virally suppressed decreased by 0.9% per month in the pre‐MM period, compared to a monthly increase of 3.9% with‐MM (49–85% pre‐MM, 59–80% with‐MM; p < 0.001). The odds of DNA PCR positivity by 9 months of age decreased 8.9% per month in the pre‐MM period, compared to a monthly decrease of 0.4% with‐MM (0–14% pre‐MM, 4–10% with‐MM; p < 0.001). The odds of DNA PCR uptake (the proportion of IPE who received DNA PCR testing) by 9 months of age were significantly higher in the with‐MM period compared to the pre‐MM period (48–100% pre‐MM, 87–100% with‐MM; p < 0.001).ConclusionsMM services were associated with improved retention in PVT services and higher viral suppression rates among PPWH. While there was ongoing but diminishing improvement in DNA PCR positivity rates among IPE following MM implementation, this might be explained by increased uptake of HIV testing among high‐risk IPE who were previously not getting tested. Additional efforts are needed to further optimize PVT outcomes, and MM should be one part of a comprehensive strategy to address this critical need.     

Timing of HIV testing among pregnant and breastfeeding women and risk of mother‐to‐child HIV transmission in Malawi: a sampling‐based cohort study

IntroductionPregnant women living with HIV can achieve viral suppression and prevent HIV mother‐to‐child transmission (MTCT) with timely HIV testing and early ART initiation and maintenance. Although it is recommended that pregnant women undergo HIV testing early in antenatal care in Malawi, many women test positive during breastfeeding because they did not have their HIV status ascertained during pregnancy, or they tested negative during pregnancy but seroconverted postpartum. We sought to estimate the association between the timing of last positive HIV test (during pregnancy vs. breastfeeding) and outcomes of maternal viral suppression and MTCT in Malawi’s PMTCT programme.MethodsWe conducted a two‐stage cohort study among mother–infant pairs in 30 randomly selected high‐volume health facilities across five nationally representative districts of Malawi between 1 July 2016 and 30 June 2017. Log‐binomial regression was used to estimate prevalence ratios (PR) and risk ratios (RR) for associations between timing of last positive HIV test (i.e. breastfeeding vs. pregnancy) and maternal viral suppression and MTCT, controlling for confounding using inverse probability weighting.ResultsOf 822 mother–infant pairs who had available information on the timing of the last positive HIV test, 102 mothers (12.4%) had their last positive test during breastfeeding. Women who lived one to two hours (PR = 2.15; 95% CI: 1.29 to 3.58) or >2 hours (PR = 2.36; 95% CI: 1.37 to 4.10) travel time to the nearest health facility were more likely to have had their last positive HIV test during breastfeeding compared to women living <1 hour travel time to the nearest health facility. The risk of unsuppressed VL did not differ between women who had their last positive HIV test during breastfeeding versus pregnancy (adjusted RR [aRR] = 0.87; 95% CI: 0.48 to 1.57). MTCT risk was higher among women who had their last positive HIV test during breastfeeding compared to women who had it during pregnancy (aRR = 6.57; 95% CI: 3.37 to 12.81).ConclusionsMTCT in Malawi occurred disproportionately among women with a last positive HIV test during breastfeeding. Testing delayed until the postpartum period may lead to higher MTCT. To optimize maternal and child health outcomes, PMTCT programmes should focus on early ART initiation and providing targeted testing, prevention, treatment and support to breastfeeding women.     

Effects of behavioural interventions on postpartum retention and adherence among women with HIV on lifelong ART: the results of a cluster randomized trial in Kenya (the MOTIVATE trial)

Introduction Retention in HIV care and adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) during pregnancy and postpartum for women living with HIV (WLWH) are necessary to optimize health outcomes for women and infants. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of two evidenced‐based behavioural interventions on postpartum adherence and retention in WLWH in Kenya.MethodsThe Mother‐Infant Visit Adherence and Treatment Engagement (MOTIVATE) study was a cluster‐randomized trial enrolling pregnant WLWH from December 2015 to August 2017. Twenty‐four health facilities in southwestern Kenya were randomized to: (1) standard care (control), (2) text‐messaging, (3) community‐based mentor mothers (cMM) or (4) text‐messaging and cMM. Primary outcomes included retention in care and ART adherence at 12 months postpartum. Analyses utilized generalized estimating equations and competing risks regression. Per‐protocol analyses examined differences in postpartum retention for women with high versus low levels of exposure to the interventions.Results We enrolled 1331 pregnant WLWH (mean age 28 years). At 12 months postpartum, 1140 (85.6%) women were retained in care, 96 women (7.2%) were lost‐to‐follow‐up (LTFU) and 95 (7.1%) were discontinued from the study. In intention‐to‐treat analyses, the relative risk of being retained at 12‐months postpartum was not significantly higher in the intervention arms versus the control arm. In time‐to‐event analysis, the cMM and text arm had significantly lower rates of LTFU (hazard ratio 0.44, p = 0.019). In per‐protocol analysis, the relative risk of 12‐month postpartum retention was 24–29% higher for women receiving at least 80% of the expected intervention compared to the control arm; text message only risk ratio (RR) 1.24 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.16–1.32, p<0.001), cMM only RR 1.29 (95% CI 1.21–1.37, p<0.001) and cMM plus text RR 1.29 (1.21–1.37, p<0.001). Women LTFU were younger (p<0.001), less likely to be married (p<0.001) and more likely to be newly diagnosed with HIV during pregnancy (p<0.001). Self‐reported ART adherence did not vary by study arm.ConclusionsBehavioural interventions using peer support and text messages did not appear to improve 12‐month postpartum retention and adherence in intention‐to‐treat analyses. Higher levels of exposure to the interventions may be necessary to achieve the desired effects.     

HIV prevalence,incidence and risk behaviours among men who have sex with men in Yangzhou and Guangzhou,China: a cohort study

Introduction

In China, the prevalence and incidence of HIV among men who have sex with men (MSM) in large-sized cities have drawn much attention. In contrast, there has been a paucity of research focussing on the sexual health of MSM of medium-sized cities. This study fills this important gap in the knowledge by investigating the sexual health of MSM in a medium-sized city (Yangzhou) and a large-sized city (Guangzhou).

Methods

A baseline survey and a prospective cohort study were conducted among MSM in Yangzhou and Guangzhou from July 2009 to September 2010. A total of 622 MSM (317 from Yangzhou and 305 from Guangzhou) were screened for eligibility. Prevalence and incidence of HIV infection, as well as its risk factors, were investigated.

Results

Baseline HIV prevalence was 14.5%, and overall HIV incidence density was 6.78 per 100 person-years (PY) among Yangzhou MSM. Risk factors for HIV prevalence that were significant in multivariate models were older age, married status, unprotected sex with female partners, sexually transmitted disease (STD)-associated symptoms and syphilis positivity. Risk factors for HIV incidence that were significant in multivariate models were STD-associated symptom and syphilis positivity. Compared to Yangzhou MSM, Guangzhou MSM had a lower HIV prevalence (6.2%; p<0.05) and lower overall HIV incidence density (5.77 per 100 PY). Risk factors for HIV prevalence that were significant in multivariate models were married status, unprotected anal sex with men and syphilis positivity. The single risk factor for HIV incidence that was significant in multivariate models was unprotected anal sex with men.

Conclusions

This study showed a high prevalence and incidence of HIV among Yangzhou MSM, which suggest a more serious HIV epidemic than that in large-sized cities. Further investigation targeting MSM in medium-sized cites is urgently needed to prevent the spread of the HIV epidemic in China.     

Optimizing HIV retesting during pregnancy and postpartum in four countries: a cost‐effectiveness analysis

IntroductionHIV retesting during late pregnancy and breastfeeding can help detect new maternal infections and prevent mother‐to‐child HIV transmission (MTCT), but the optimal timing and cost‐effectiveness of maternal retesting remain uncertain.MethodsWe constructed deterministic models to assess the health and economic impact of maternal HIV retesting on a hypothetical population of pregnant women, following initial testing in pregnancy, on MTCT in four countries: South Africa and Kenya (high/intermediate HIV prevalence), and Colombia and Ukraine (low HIV prevalence). We evaluated six scenarios with varying retesting frequencies from late in antenatal care (ANC) through nine months postpartum. We compared strategies using incremental cost‐effectiveness ratios (ICERs) over a 20‐year time horizon using country‐specific thresholds.ResultsWe found maternal retesting once in late ANC with catch‐up testing through six weeks postpartum was cost‐effective in Kenya (ICER = $166 per DALY averted) and South Africa (ICER=$289 per DALY averted). This strategy prevented 19% (Kenya) and 12% (South Africa) of infant HIV infections. Adding one or two additional retests postpartum provided smaller benefits (1 to 2 percentage point increase in infections averted versus one retest). Adding three retests during the postpartum period averted additional infections (1 to 3 percentage point increase in infections averted versus one retest) but ICERs ($7639 and in Kenya and $11 985 in South Africa) greatly exceeded the cost‐effectiveness thresholds. In Colombia and Ukraine, all retesting strategies exceeded the cost‐effectiveness threshold and prevented few infant infections (up to 31 and 5 infections, respectively).ConclusionsIn high HIV burden settings with MTCT rates similar to those seen in Kenya and South Africa, HIV retesting once in late ANC, with subsequent intervention, is the most cost‐effective strategy for preventing infant HIV infections. In these settings, two HIV retests postpartum marginally reduced MTCT and were less costly than adding three retests. Retesting in low‐burden settings with MTCT rates similar to Colombia and Ukraine was not cost‐effective at any time point due to very low HIV prevalence and limited breastfeeding.     

Managers’ and providers’ perspectives on barriers and facilitators for the implementation of differentiated service delivery models for HIV treatment in Mozambique: a qualitative study

Introduction

In 2018, Mozambique's Ministry of Health launched a guideline for a nationwide implementation of eight differentiated service delivery models to optimize HIV service delivery and achieve universal coverage of HIV care and treatment. The models were (1) Fast-track, (2) Three-month Antiretrovirals Dispensing, (3) Community Antiretroviral Therapy Groups, (4) Adherence Clubs, (5) Family-approach, and three one-stop shop models for (6) Tuberculosis, (7) Maternal and Child Health, and (8) Adolescent-friendly Health Services. This study identified drivers of implementation success and failure across these differentiated service delivery models.

Methods

Twenty in-depth individual interviews were conducted with managers and providers from the Ministry of Health and implementing partners from all levels of the health system between July and September 2021. National-level participants were based in the capital city of Maputo, and participants at provincial, district and health facility levels were from Sofala province, a purposively selected setting. The Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR) guided data collection and thematic analysis. Deductively selected constructs were assessed while allowing for additional themes to emerge inductively.

Results

The CFIR constructs of Relative Advantage, Complexity, Patient Needs and Resources, and Reflecting and Evaluating were identified as drivers of implementation, whereas Available Resources and Access to Knowledge and Information were identified as barriers. Fast-track and Three-month Antiretrovirals Dispensing models were deemed easier to implement and more effective in reducing workload. Adherence Clubs and Community Antiretroviral Therapy Groups were believed to be less preferred by clients in urban settings. COVID-19 (an inductive theme) improved acceptance and uptake of individual differentiated service delivery models that reduced client visits, but it temporarily interrupted the implementation of group models.

Conclusions

This study described important determinants to be addressed or leveraged for the successful implementation of differentiated service delivery models in Mozambique. The models were considered advantageous overall for the health system and clients when compared with the standard of care. However, successful implementation requires resources and ongoing training for frontline providers. COVID-19 expedited individual models by loosening the inclusion criteria; this experience can be leveraged to optimize the design and implementation of differentiated service delivery models in Mozambique and other countries.     

Declining HIV incidence in sub‐Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta‐analysis of empiric data

IntroductionUNAIDS models suggest HIV incidence is declining in sub‐Saharan Africa. The objective of this study was to assess whether modelled trends are supported by empirical evidence.MethodsWe conducted a systematic review and meta‐analysis of adult HIV incidence data from sub‐Saharan Africa by searching Embase, Scopus, PubMed and OVID databases and technical reports published between 1 January 2010 and 23 July 2019. We included prospective and cross‐sectional studies that directly measured incidence from blood samples. Incidence data were abstracted according to population risk group, geographic location, sex, intervention arm and calendar period. Weighted regression models were used to assess incidence trends across general population studies by sex. We also identified studies reporting greater than or equal to three incidence measurements since 2010 and assessed trends within them.ResultsTotal 291 studies, including 22 sub‐Saharan African countries, met inclusion criteria. Most studies were conducted in South Africa (n = 102), Uganda (n = 46) and Kenya (n = 41); there were 26 countries with no published incidence data, most in western and central Africa. Data were most commonly derived from prospective observational studies (n = 163; 56%) and from geographically defined populations with limited demographic or risk‐based enrolment criteria other than age (i.e., general population studies; n = 151; 52%). Across general population studies, average annual incidence declines since 2010 were 0.12/100 person‐years (95% CI: 0.06–0.18; p = 0.001) among men and 0.10/100 person‐years (95% CI: −0.02–0.22; p = 0.093) among women in eastern Africa, and 0.25/100 person‐years (95% CI: 0.17–034; p < 0.0001) among men and 0.42/100 person‐years (95% CI: 0.23–0.62; p = 0.0002) among women in southern Africa. In nine of 10 studies with multiple measurements, incidence declined over time, including in two studies of key populations. Across all population risk groups, the highest HIV incidence estimates were observed among men who have sex with men, with rates ranging from 1.0 to 15.4/100 person‐years. Within general population studies, incidence was typically higher in women than men with a median female‐to‐male incidence rate ratio of 1.47 (IQR: 1.11 to 1.83) with evidence of a growing sex disparity over time.ConclusionsEmpirical incidence data show the rate of new HIV infections is declining in eastern and southern Africa. However, recent incidence data are non‐existent or very limited for many countries and key populations.     

Optimizing infant HIV diagnosis with additional screening at immunization clinics in three sub‐Saharan African settings: a cost‐effectiveness analysis

IntroductionUptake of early infant HIV diagnosis (EID) varies widely across sub‐Saharan African settings. We evaluated the potential clinical impact and cost‐effectiveness of universal maternal HIV screening at infant immunization visits, with referral to EID and maternal antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation.MethodsUsing the CEPAC‐Pediatric model, we compared two strategies for infants born in 2017 in Côte d’Ivoire (CI), South Africa (SA), and Zimbabwe: (1) existing EID programmes offering six‐week nucleic acid testing (NAT) for infants with known HIV exposure (EID), and (2) EID plus universal maternal HIV screening at six‐week infant immunization visits, leading to referral for infant NAT and maternal ART initiation (screen‐and‐test). Model inputs included published Ivoirian/South African/Zimbabwean data: maternal HIV prevalence (4.8/30.8/16.1%), current uptake of EID (40/95/65%) and six‐week immunization attendance (99/74/94%). Referral rates for infant NAT and maternal ART initiation after screen‐and‐test were 80%. Costs included NAT ($24/infant), maternal screening ($10/mother–infant pair), ART ($5 to 31/month) and HIV care ($15 to 190/month). Model outcomes included mother‐to‐child transmission of HIV (MTCT) among HIV‐exposed infants, and life expectancy (LE) and mean lifetime per‐person costs for children with HIV (CWH) and all children born in 2017. We calculated incremental cost‐effectiveness ratios (ICERs) using discounted (3%/year) lifetime costs and LE for all children. We considered two cost‐effectiveness thresholds in each country: (1) the per‐capita GDP ($1720/6380/2150) per year‐of‐life saved (YLS), and (2) the CEPAC‐generated ICER of offering 2 versus 1 lifetime ART regimens (e.g. offering second‐line ART; $520/500/580/YLS).ResultsWith EID, projected six‐week MTCT was 9.3% (CI), 4.2% (SA) and 5.2% (Zimbabwe). Screen‐and‐test decreased total MTCT by 0.2% to 0.5%, improved LE by 2.0 to 3.5 years for CWH and 0.03 to 0.07 years for all children, and increased discounted costs by $17 to 22/child (all children). The ICER of screen‐and‐test compared to EID was $1340/YLS (CI), $650/YLS (SA) and $670/YLS (Zimbabwe), below the per‐capita GDP but above the ICER of 2 versus 1 lifetime ART regimens in all countries.ConclusionsUniversal maternal HIV screening at immunization visits with referral to EID and maternal ART initiation may reduce MTCT, improve paediatric LE, and be of comparable value to current HIV‐related interventions in high maternal HIV prevalence settings like SA and Zimbabwe.     

Annual home‐based HIV testing in the Chókwè Health Demographic Surveillance System,Mozambique, 2014 to 2019: serial population‐based survey evaluation

IntroductionWHO recommends implementing a mix of community and facility testing strategies to diagnose 95% of persons living with HIV (PLHIV). In Mozambique, a country with an estimated 506,000 undiagnosed PLHIV, use of home‐based HIV testing services (HBHTS) to help achieve the 95% target has not been evaluated.MethodsHBHTS was provided at 20,000 households in the Chókwè Health Demographic Surveillance System (CHDSS), Mozambique, in annual rounds (R) during 2014 to 2019. Trends in prevalence of HIV infection, prior HIV diagnosis among PLHIV (diagnostic coverage), and undiagnosed HIV infection were assessed with three population‐based surveys conducted in R1 (04/2014 to 04/2015), R3 (03/2016 to 12/2016), and R5 (04/2018 to 03/2019) of residents aged 15 to 59 years. Counts of patients aged ≥15 years tested for HIV in CHDSS healthcare facilities were obtained from routine reports.ResultsDuring 2014 to 2019, counsellors conducted 92,512 home‐based HIV tests and newly diagnosed 3711 residents aged 15 to 59 years. Prevalence of HIV infection was stable (R1, 25.1%; R3 23.6%; R5 22.9%; p‐value, 0.19). After the first two rounds (44,825 home‐based tests; 31,717 facility‐based tests), diagnostic coverage increased from 73.8% (95% CI 70.3 to 77.2) in R1 to 93.0% (95% CI 91.3 to 94.7) in R3, and prevalence of undiagnosed HIV infection decreased from 6.6% (95% CI 5.6 to 7.5) in R1 to 1.7% (95% CI 1.2 to 2.1) in R3. After two more rounds (32,226 home‐based tests; 46,003 facility‐based tests), diagnostic coverage was 95.4% (95% CI 93.7 to 97.1) and prevalence of undiagnosed HIV infection was 1.1% (95% CI 0.7 to 1.5) in R5. Prevalence of having last tested at home was 12.7% (95% CI 11.3 to 14.0) in R1, 45.2% (95% CI 43.4 to 47.0) in R3, and 41.4% (95% CI 39.5 to 43.2) in R5, and prevalence of having last tested at a healthcare facility was 45.3% (95% CI 43.3 to 47.3) in R1, 40.1% (95% CI 38.4 to 41.8) in R3, and 45.2% (95% CI 43.3 to 47.0) in R5.ConclusionsHBHTS successfully augmented facility‐based testing to achieve HIV diagnostic coverage in a high‐burden community of Mozambique. HBHTS should be considered in sub‐Saharan Africa communities striving to diagnose 95% of persons living with HIV.     

Risk scores for predicting HIV incidence among adult heterosexual populations in sub‐Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta‐analysis

IntroductionSeveral HIV risk scores have been developed to identify individuals for prioritized HIV prevention in sub‐Saharan Africa. We systematically reviewed HIV risk scores to: (1) identify factors that consistently predicted incident HIV infection, (2) review inclusion of community‐level HIV risk in predictive models and (3) examine predictive performance.MethodsWe searched nine databases from inception until 15 February 2021 for studies developing and/or validating HIV risk scores among the heterosexual adult population in sub‐Saharan Africa. Studies not prospectively observing seroconversion or recruiting only key populations were excluded. Record screening, data extraction and critical appraisal were conducted in duplicate. We used random‐effects meta‐analysis to summarize hazard ratios and the area under the receiver‐operating characteristic curve (AUC‐ROC).ResultsFrom 1563 initial search records, we identified 14 risk scores in 13 studies. Seven studies were among sexually active women using contraceptives enrolled in randomized‐controlled trials, three among adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) and three among cohorts enrolling both men and women. Consistently identified HIV prognostic factors among women were younger age (pooled adjusted hazard ratio: 1.62 [95% confidence interval: 1.17, 2.23], compared to above 25), single/not cohabiting with primary partners (2.33 [1.73, 3.13]) and having sexually transmitted infections (STIs) at baseline (HSV‐2: 1.67 [1.34, 2.09]; curable STIs: 1.45 [1.17; 1.79]). Among AGYW, only STIs were consistently associated with higher incidence, but studies were limited (n = 3). Community‐level HIV prevalence or unsuppressed viral load strongly predicted incidence but was only considered in 3 of 11 multi‐site studies. The AUC‐ROC ranged from 0.56 to 0.79 on the model development sets. Only the VOICE score was externally validated by multiple studies, with pooled AUC‐ROC 0.626 [0.588, 0.663] (I ²: 64.02%).ConclusionsYounger age, non‐cohabiting and recent STIs were consistently identified as predicting future HIV infection. Both community HIV burden and individual factors should be considered to quantify HIV risk. However, HIV risk scores had only low‐to‐moderate discriminatory ability and uncertain generalizability, limiting their programmatic utility. Further evidence on the relative value of specific risk factors, studies populations not restricted to “at‐risk” individuals and data outside South Africa will improve the evidence base for risk differentiation in HIV prevention programmes.PROSPERO NumberCRD42021236367     

HIV sexual transmission risks in the context of clinical care: a prospective study of behavioural correlates of HIV suppression in a community sample,Atlanta, GA,USA

Introduction

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) improves the health of people living with HIV and has the potential to reduce HIV infectiousness, thereby preventing HIV transmission. However, the success of ART for HIV prevention hinges on sustained ART adherence and avoiding sexually transmitted infections (STI).

Objectives

To determine the sexual behaviours and HIV transmission risks of individuals with suppressed and unsuppressed HIV replication (i.e., viral load).

Methods

Assessed HIV sexual transmission risks among individuals with clinically determined suppressed and unsuppressed HIV. Participants were 760 men and 280 women living with HIV in Atlanta, GA, USA, who completed behavioural assessments, 28-daily prospective sexual behaviour diaries, one-month prospective unannounced pill counts for ART adherence, urine screening for illicit drug use and medical record chart abstraction for HIV viral load.

Results

Individuals with unsuppressed HIV demonstrated a constellation of behavioural risks for transmitting HIV to uninfected sex partners that included symptoms of STI and substance use. In addition, 15% of participants with suppressed HIV had recent STI symptoms/diagnoses, indicating significant risks for sexual infectiousness despite their HIV suppression in blood plasma. Overall, 38% of participants were at risk for elevated sexual infectiousness and just as many engaged in unprotected sexual intercourse with non-HIV-infected partners.

Conclusions

Implementation strategies for using HIV treatments as HIV prevention requires enhanced behavioural interventions that extend beyond ART to address substance use and sexual health that will otherwise undermine the potential preventive impact of early ART.     

Smoking and the incidence of asthma during adolescence: results of a large cohort study in Germany

BACKGROUND: The association between smoking and asthma or wheeze has been extensively studied in cross sectional studies, but evidence from large prospective cohort studies on the incidence of asthma during adolescence is scarce. METHODS: We report data from a cohort study in two German cities, Dresden and Munich. The study population (n = 2936) was first studied in 1995/6 at age 9-11 years as part of phase II of the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC II) and followed up in 2002/3. At baseline the parents completed a questionnaire and children underwent clinical examination and blood sampling. At follow up the young adults completed questionnaires on respiratory health, living, and exposure conditions. Incidence risk ratios (IRR) were calculated and adjusted for potential confounders using a modified Poisson regression approach. RESULTS: The adjusted IRR for incident wheeze for active smokers compared with non-smokers was 2.30 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.88 to 2.82). The adjusted IRR was slightly higher for incident wheeze without a cold (2.76, 95% CI 1.99 to 3.84) and the incidence of diagnosed asthma (2.56, 95% CI 1.55 to 4.21). Analysis of duration and intensity of active smoking indicated dose dependent associations. Stratified analyses showed that the risk of incident wheeze without a cold in atopic smokers increased with decreasing plasma alpha(1)-antitrypsin levels at baseline (1.64, 95% CI 1.22 to 2.20 per interquartile range). CONCLUSIONS: Active smoking is an important risk factor for the incidence of asthma during adolescence. Relatively lower plasma levels of alpha(1)-antitrypsin, although well above currently accepted thresholds, may increase susceptibility to respiratory disease among atopic smokers.