Validation of the NELA risk prediction model in emergency abdominal surgery

Risk prediction models are frequently used to identify high-risk patients undergoing emergency laparotomy. The National Emergency Laparotomy Audit (NELA) developed a risk prediction model specifically for emergency laparotomy patients, which was recently updated. In this study, we validated the updated NELA model in an external population. Furthermore, we compared it with three other risk prediction models: the original NELA model, the Portsmouth Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (P-POSSUM) model, and the American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status (ASA-PS). We included adult patients undergoing emergency laparotomy at Zealand University Hospital, from March 2017 to January 2019, and Herlev Hospital, from November 2017 to January 2020. Variables included in the risk prediction models were collected retrospectively from the electronic patient records. Discrimination of the risk prediction models was evaluated with area under the curve (AUC) statistics, and calibration was assessed with Cox calibration regression. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. Out of 1226 included patients, 146 patients (11.9%) died within 30 days. AUC (95% confidence interval) for 30-day mortality was 0.85 (0.82–0.88) for the updated NELA model, 0.84 (0.81–0.87) for the original NELA model, 0.81 (0.77–0.84) for the P-POSSUM model, and 0.76 (0.72–0.79) for the ASA-PS model. Calibration showed underestimation of mortality risk for both the updated NELA, original NELA and P-POSSUM models. The updated NELA risk prediction model performs well in this external validation study and may be used in similar settings. However, the model should only be used to discriminate between low- and high-risk patients, and not for prediction of individual risk due to underestimation of mortality.     

Combining sarcopenia and ASA status to inform emergency laparotomy outcomes: could it be that simple?

Background

Risk assessment for emergency laparotomy (EL) is important for guiding decision-making and anticipating the level of perioperative care in acute clinical settings. While established tools such as the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program calculator (ACS-NSQIP), the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit Risk Prediction Calculator (NELA) and the Portsmouth Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity calculation (P-POSSUM) are accurate predictors for mortality, there has been increasing recognition of the benefits from including measurements for frailty in a simple and quantifiable manner. Psoas muscle to 3rd lumbar vertebra area ratio (PM:L3) measured on CT scans was proven to have a significant inverse association with 30-, 90- and 365-day mortality in EL patients.

Methods

A retrospective analysis was conducted of 500 patients admitted to four Australian hospitals who underwent EL during 2016–2017, and had contemporaneous abdomino-pelvic CT scans. Radiological sarcopenia was measured as PM:L3 ratios. ASC-NSQIP, NELA and P-POSSUM were retrospectively calculated. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression modelling was used to assess these ratios and scores, as well as American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) classification separated into ASA I-III and IV/V (simplified ASA), as potential predictors of 30-, 90- and 365-day mortality.

Results

PM:L3, simplified ASA, ACS-NSQIP, NELA and P-POSSUM were each statistically significant predictors of 30-day, 90-day and 365-day mortality (P < 0.001). Logistic regression models of 30-, 90- and 365-day mortality combining PM:L3 (P = 0.001) and simplified ASA (P < 0.001) exhibited AUCs of 0.838 (0.780, 0.896), 0.805 (0.751, 0.860) and 0.775 (0.729, 0.822), respectively, which were comparable to that of ACS-NSQIP and NELA.

Conclusion

Combining the semi-physiological parameter ASA classification with PM:L3 provides a quick and simple alternative to the more complex established risk assessment scores and is superior to PM:L3 alone.     

The association of pre-operative anaemia with morbidity and mortality after emergency laparotomy

Pre-operative anaemia is associated with poor outcomes after elective surgery but its relationship with outcomes after emergency surgery is unclear. We analysed National Emergency Laparotomy Audit data from 1 December 2013 to 30 November 2017, excluding laparotomy for haemorrhage. Anaemia was classified as ‘mild’ 129–110 g.l−1; ‘moderate’ 109–80 g.l−1; or ‘severe’ ≤ 79 g.l−1. The primary outcome was 90-day mortality. Secondary outcomes were 30-day mortality, return to theatre and postoperative hospital stay. The primary outcome was available for 86,763 patients, of whom 45,306 (52%) were anaemic. There were 12,667 (15%) deaths at 90 postoperative days and 9246 (11%) deaths at 30 postoperative days. Anaemia was associated with increased 90-day and 30-day mortality, odds ratio (95%CI): mild, 1.15 (1.09–1.21); moderate, 1.44 (1.36–1.52); and severe, 1.42 (1.24–1.63), p < 0.001 for all; mild, 1.07 (1.00–1.12), p = 0.030; moderate, 1.30 (1.21–1.38), p < 0.001; and severe, 1.22 (1.05–1.43), p = 0.010, respectively. All categories of anaemia were associated with prolonged hospital stay, adjusted coefficient (95%CI): mild, 1.31 (1.01–1.62); moderate, 3.41 (3.04–3.77); severe, 2.80 (1.83–3.77), p < 0.001 for all. Moderate and severe anaemia were associated with increased risk of return to the operating theatre, odds ratio (95%CI): moderate 1.13 (1.06–1.21), p < 0.001; and severe 1.23 (1.06–1.43), p = 0.006. Pre-operative anaemia is common in patients undergoing emergency laparotomy and is associated with increased postoperative mortality and morbidity.     

Delay in Source Control in Perforated Peptic Ulcer Leads to 6% Increased Risk of Death Per Hour: A Nationwide Cohort Study

Background

Delay to theatre for patients with intra-abdominal sepsis is cited as a particular risk factor for death. Our aim was to evaluate the potential relationship between hourly delay from admission to surgery and post-operative mortality in patients with perforated peptic ulcer (PPU).

Methods

All patients entered in the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit who had an emergency laparotomy for PPU within 24 h of admission from December 2013 to November 2017 were included. Time to theatre from admission was modelled as a continuous variable in hours. Outcome was 90-day mortality. Logistic regression adjusting for confounding factors was performed.

Results

3809 patients were included, and 90-day mortality rate was 10.61%. Median time to theatre was 7.5 h (IQR 5–11.6 h). The odds of death increased with time to operation once adjustment for confounding variables was performed (per hour after admission adjusted OR 1.04 95% CI 1.02–1.07). In patients who were physiologically shocked (N = 334), there was an increase of 6% in risk-adjusted odds of mortality for every hour Em Lap was delayed after admission (OR 1.06 95% CI 1.01–1.11).

Conclusion

Hourly delay to theatre in patients with PPU is independently associated with risk of death by 90 days. Therefore, we suggest that surgical source control should occur as soon as possible after admission regardless of time of day.

     

Logistic early warning scores to predict death,cardiac arrest or unplanned intensive care unit re-admission after cardiac surgery

NHS England recently mandated that the National Early Warning Score of vital signs be used in all acute hospital trusts in the UK despite limited validation in the postoperative setting. We undertook a multicentre UK study of 13,631 patients discharged from intensive care after risk-stratified cardiac surgery in four centres, all of which used VitalPAC^TM to electronically collect postoperative National Early Warning Score vital signs. We analysed 540,127 sets of vital signs to generate a logistic score, the discrimination of which we compared with the national additive score for the composite outcome of: in-hospital death; cardiac arrest; or unplanned intensive care admission. There were 578 patients (4.2%) with an outcome that followed 4300 sets of observations (0.8%) in the preceding 24 h: 499 out of 578 (86%) patients had unplanned re-admissions to intensive care. Discrimination by the logistic score was significantly better than the additive score. Respective areas (95%CI) under the receiver-operating characteristic curve with 24-h and 6-h vital signs were: 0.779 (0.771–0.786) vs. 0.754 (0.746–0.761), p < 0.001; and 0.841 (0.829–0.853) vs. 0.813 (0.800–0.825), p < 0.001, respectively. Our proposed logistic Early Warning Score was better than the current National Early Warning Score at discriminating patients who had an event after cardiac surgery from those who did not.     

Design and internal validation of an obstetric early warning score: secondary analysis of the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre Case Mix Programme database

We designed and internally validated an aggregate weighted early warning scoring system specific to the obstetric population that has the potential for use in the ward environment. Direct obstetric admissions from the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre's Case Mix Programme Database were randomly allocated to model development (n = 2240) or validation (n = 2200) sets. Physiological variables collected during the first 24 h of critical care admission were analysed. Logistic regression analysis for mortality in the model development set was initially used to create a statistically based early warning score. The statistical score was then modified to create a clinically acceptable early warning score. Important features of this clinical obstetric early warning score are that the variables are weighted according to their statistical importance, a surrogate for the F_IO₂/P_aO₂ relationship is included, conscious level is assessed using a simplified alert/not alert variable, and the score, trigger thresholds and response are consistent with the new non‐obstetric National Early Warning Score system. The statistical and clinical early warning scores were internally validated using the validation set. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.995 (95% CI 0.992–0.998) for the statistical score and 0.957 (95% CI 0.923–0.991) for the clinical score. Pre‐existing empirically designed early warning scores were also validated in the same way for comparison. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.955 (95% CI 0.922–0.988) for Swanton et al.'s Modified Early Obstetric Warning System, 0.937 (95% CI 0.884–0.991) for the obstetric early warning score suggested in the 2003–2005 Report on Confidential Enquiries into Maternal Deaths in the UK, and 0.973 (95% CI 0.957–0.989) for the non‐obstetric National Early Warning Score. This highlights that the new clinical obstetric early warning score has an excellent ability to discriminate survivors from non‐survivors in this critical care data set. Further work is needed to validate our new clinical early warning score externally in the obstetric ward environment.     

Beyond high-risk: analysis of the outcomes of extreme-risk patients in the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit

Patients who require emergency laparotomy are defined as high risk if their 30-day predicted risk of mortality is ≥ 5%. Despite a large difference in the characteristics of patients with a mortality risk score of between 5% and 50%, these outcomes are aggregated by the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit (NELA). Our aim was to describe the outcomes of the cohort of patients at extreme risk of death, which we defined as having a NELA-predicted 30-day mortality of ≥ 50%. All patients enrolled in the NELA database between December 2012 and 2020 were included. We compared patient characteristics; length of hospital stay; rates of unplanned return to the operating theatre; and 90-day survival in extreme-risk groups (predicted ≥ 50%) and high-risk patients (predicted 5–49%). Of 161,337 patients, 5193 (3.2%) had a predicted mortality of ≥ 50%. When patients were further subdivided, 2437 (47%) had predicted mortality of 50–59% (group 50–59); 1484 (29%) predicted mortality of 60–69% (group 60–69); 840 (16%) predicted mortality of 70–79% (group 70–79); and 423 (8%) predicted mortality of ≥ 80% (group 80+). Extreme-risk patients were significantly more likely to have been admitted electively than high-risk patients (p < 0.001). Length of stay increased from a median (IQR [range]) of 26 (16–43 [0–271]) days in group 50–59 to 35 (21–56 [0–368]) days in group 80+, compared with 17 (10–30 [0–1136]) days for high-risk patients. Rates of unplanned return to the operating theatre were higher in extreme-risk groups compared with high-risk patients (11% vs. 8%). The 90-day survival was 43% in group 50–59, 34% in group 60–69, 27% in group 70–79 and 17% in group 80+. These data underscore the need for a differentiated approach when discussing risk with patients at extreme risk of mortality following an emergency laparotomy. Clinicians should focus on patient priorities on quantity and quality of life during informed consent discussions before surgery. Future work should extend beyond the immediate postoperative period to encompass the longer-term outcomes (survival and function) of patients who have emergency laparotomies.     

Development and validation of a prognostic model for death 30 days after adult emergency laparotomy

The probability of death after emergency laparotomy varies greatly between patients. Accurate pre-operative risk prediction is fundamental to planning care and improving outcomes. We aimed to develop a model limited to a few pre-operative factors that performed well irrespective of surgical indication: obstruction; sepsis; ischaemia; bleeding; and other. We derived a model with data from the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit for patients who had emergency laparotomy between December 2016 and November 2018. We tested the model on patients who underwent emergency laparotomy between December 2018 and November 2019. There were 4077/40,816 (10%) deaths 30 days after surgery in the derivation cohort. The final model had 13 pre-operative variables: surgical indication; age; blood pressure; heart rate; respiratory history; urgency; biochemical markers; anticipated malignancy; anticipated peritoneal soiling; and ASA physical status. The predicted mortality probability deciles ranged from 0.1% to 47%. There were 1888/11,187 deaths in the test cohort. The scaled Brier score, integrated calibration index and concordance for the model were 20%, 0.006 and 0.86, respectively. Model metrics were similar for the five surgical indications. In conclusion, we think that this prognostic model is suitable to support decision-making before emergency laparotomy as well as for risk adjustment for comparing organisations.     

Derivation and Validation of a Novel Physiological Emergency Surgery Acuity Score (PESAS)

Background

We present a novel and abbreviated Physiological Emergency Surgery Acuity Score (PESAS) that assesses the severity of disease at presentation in patients undergoing Emergency Surgery (ES).

Methods

Using the 2011 ACS-NSQIP database, we identified all patients who underwent “emergent” surgery. The following methodology was designed: (1) identification of independent predictors of 30-day mortality that are markers of acuity; (2) derivation of PESAS based on the relative impact (i.e., odds ratio) of each predictor; and (3) measurement of the c-statistic. The PESAS was validated using the 2012 ACS-NSQIP database.

Results

From 24,702 ES cases, a 15-point score was derived. This included 10 components with a range of 0 and 15 points. Its c-statistic was 0.80. Mortality gradually increased from 1.7 to 40.6 to 100% at scores of 0, 8, and 15, respectively. In the validation phase, PESAS c-statistic remained stable.

Conclusion

PESAS is a novel score that assesses the acuity of disease at presentation in ES patients and strongly correlates with postoperative mortality risk. PESAS could prove useful for preoperative counseling and for risk-adjusted benchmarking.

     

Effect of introducing the Modified Early Warning score on clinical outcomes,cardio-pulmonary arrests and intensive care utilisation in acute medical admissions

The effects of introducing Modified Early Warning scores to identify medical patients at risk of catastrophic deterioration have not been examined. We prospectively studied 1695 acute medical admissions. All patients were scored in the admissions unit. Patients with a Modified Early Warning score > 4 were referred for urgent medical and critical care outreach team review. Data was compared with an observational study performed in the same unit during the proceeding year. There was no change in mortality of patients with low, intermediate or high Modified Early Warning scores. Rates of cardio-pulmonary arrest, intensive care unit or high dependency unit admission were similar. Data analysis confirmed respiratory rate as the best discriminator in identifying high-risk patient groups. The therapeutic interventions performed in response to abnormal scores were not assessed. We are convinced that the Modified Early Warning score is a suitable scoring tool to identify patients at risk. However, outcomes in medical emergency admissions are influenced by a multitude of factors and so it may be difficult to demonstrate the score's benefit without further standardizing the response to abnormal values.     

Excellent outcomes after emergency groin hernia repair

Purpose  

Emergency repair of incarcerated inguinal and femoral hernias has traditionally been regarded as carrying an increased risk of morbidity and mortality in a patient population that tends to be elderly with significant co-morbidities. Excessive waiting times for elective repair and delays in diagnosis and treatment increase the risk of strangulation, bowel resection and overall mortality. This study examined the management of emergency surgery for groin hernias for a 3 year period in a large teaching hospital.     

The discrimination of quick Paediatric Early Warning Scores in the pre-hospital setting

In our previous study, a Paediatric Early Warning Score could be calculated for only one-fifth of 102,993 children transported by ambulance to hospital, as components other than supplemental oxygen were not reliably measured: respiratory rate 90,358 (88%); Glasgow Coma Score 83,648 (81%); heart rate 83,330 (81%); time to capillary reperfusion 81,685 (79%); oxygen saturation 71,372 (69%); temperature 60,402 (59%); systolic blood pressure 37,088 (36%). We tested 12 abbreviated scores with 3–5 components. The discrimination of these 12 scores for the primary outcome (30-day mortality or admission to paediatric intensive care), as measured by the area under the receiving operator characteristic curve, ranged from 0.69 to 0.80. Scores could be calculated for at most 74,508 (72%) children when heart rate, conscious level and respiratory rate were measured, with or without supplemental oxygen: the discrimination of these two versions was 0.75 and 0.77, respectively. Optimal threshold scores of 3 and 2 for these two abbreviated versions discriminated an outcome rate of 2–3% in about one third of children from the other children who had < 1% rate of outcome.     

Frailty in emergency general surgery: Low-risk procedures pose similar risk as high-risk procedures for frail patients

BackgroundThe association of frailty on postoperative outcomes after elective and emergency general surgery procedures has been widely studied. However, this association has not been examined in the geriatric population stratified by emergency general surgery procedural risk.MethodsA retrospective cohort study was performed using the 2012 to 2017 American College of Surgeons-National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database. We identified geriatric patients (age ≥65 years) undergoing an emergency general surgery procedure within 48 hours of admission stratified by the procedural risk. Frailty was accessed using Modified 5-item Frailty Index, and the patients were divided into 4 groups Modified 5-item Frailty Index = 0, 1, 2, and ≥3. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the impact of increasing Modified 5-item Frailty Index score on postoperative complications, failure-to-rescue, and readmissions.ResultsIn the study, 16,911 low risk procedure emergency general surgery patients were grouped as (33.3%) Modified 5-item Frailty Index = 0, (45.1%) Modified 5-item Frailty Index = 1, (18.7%) Modified 5-item Frailty Index = 2, and (2.9%) Modified 5-item Frailty Index ≥3 respectively. After multivariable analyses, increasing Modified 5-item Frailty Index score (versus Modified 5-item Frailty Index = 0) was associated with complications (odds ratio [95% confidence interval]; Modified 5-item Frailty Index = 2: 2.1 [1.3-3.5], Modified 5-item Frailty Index ≥ 3: 2.2 [1.2-4.2]), failure-to-rescue (Modified 5-item Frailty Index = 2: 2.3 [1.3-4.0], Modified 5-item Frailty Index ≥ 3: 2.3 [1.2-4.6]), readmission (Modified 5-item Frailty Index = 2: 1.4 [1.2-1.7], Modified 5-item Frailty Index ≥ 3: 1.5 [1.1-2.1]). In addition, 30,305 high-risk patients undergoing procedure emergency general surgery were grouped as (24.1%) Modified 5-item Frailty Index = 0, (44.9%) Modified 5-item Frailty Index = 1, (24.0%) Modified 5-item Frailty Index = 2, and (7.0%) Modified 5-item Frailty Index ≥3, respectively. After multivariable analyses, increasing Modified 5-item Frailty Index score (versus Modified 5-item Frailty Index = 0) was associated with complications (odds ratio [95% confidence interval]; Modified 5-item Frailty Index = 2: 1.2 [1.2–1.3], Modified 5-item Frailty Index ≥3: 1.7 [1.5–2.0]), failure-to-rescue (Modified 5-item Frailty Index = 2: 1.3 [1.2–1.5], Modified 5-item Frailty Index ≥3: 1.5 [1.3–1.7]), readmission (Modified 5-item Frailty Index = 2: 1.3 [1.2–1.4], Modified 5-item Frailty Index ≥3: 1.6 [1.4–1.9]).ConclusionIncreasing levels of frailty in geriatric emergency general surgery patients are associated with higher levels of postoperative complications, failure-to-rescue, and readmission. Clinicians should consider frailty in assessing the risk of even low-risk surgeries in this population.     

La evaluación de la fragilidad ha venido para quedarse: Estudio piloto retrospectivo de dos escalas de fragilidad en ancianos oncológicos intervenidos de cirugía colorrectal

IntroductionColorectal cancer is a disease of the elderly and its main treatment is surgery. Frailty, a clinical syndrome of decreased reserve, increases with age and has been recognized as a predictive factor for postoperative mortality. Our primary objective was to assess the association between twohree frailty scores and mortality.within the first year after surgery, by retrospectively linking frailty scores to mortality data and comparing the strength of their association with mortality to that of the ASA Classification. The frailty scales used were: the Modified Frailty Index (MFI) and, the Risk Analysis Index-A (RAI-A) and the G8 screening test (G8). As secondary objectives, we assessed the relationship of the frailty scales with morbidity and compared all the scales with the ASA.Material and methodsWe retrospectively studied 172 patients aged 65 years.and older who underwent laparoscopic colorectal surgery for cancer between January 2017 and June 2018, following them up for 1 year after surgery.ResultsBoth morbidity and mortality were significantly associated with all frailty scale scores (p < 0.001). The more frailty, the greater probability of prolonged hospital stay, complications, readmissions and emergency department visits. Using each scale, patients were categorized into two groups (frail and non-frail patients). The C-indexes for 1-year mortality with the RAI-A and, MFI and G8 were 0.89 and, 0.86 and 0.86 respectively. On the other hand, ASA status is not strongly associated with mortality, with a C-index of 0.63.DiscussionFrailty scores should begin to influence medical and surgical strategies and further research is needed to develop guidelines for interventions in geriatric patients.     

Impact of service delivery factors on patient outcomes in emergency general surgery

BackgroundEmergency general surgery (EGS) is a high-risk process and is associated with poor outcomes and high mortality. This study aimed to evaluate the service delivery factors in a tertiary referral centre which may influence patient outcomes in emergency general surgery.MethodsData on consecutive patients undergoing emergency laparotomy in a tertiary referral centre were prospectively collected from July 2017–July 2018. An extensive review of patient charts and IT systems was performed to extract demographic, clinical and care pathway data. Transfers for surgery from within the institution or within the centralised hospital network were recorded.ResultsThe unadjusted 30-day mortality rate in 163 patients undergoing emergency laparotomy was 13%. On multivariate analysis, 30-day mortality was significantly associated with p-POSSUM predicted mortality (p = 0.003), p-POSSUM predicted morbidity (p = 0.01), SORT mortality (p = 0.004), ICU admission (p = 0.02), ASA grade (p < 0.001) and transfer from non-surgical services (p < 0.001). 19.2% of patients were transferred from a referring hospital for emergency laparotomy. There was no association between inter-hospital transfer and 30-day mortality while increased mortality was observed in patients admitted to non-surgical services who required laparotomy (p < 0.001).ConclusionInter-hospital transfer for emergency laparotomy was not associated with increased mortality. Increased mortality was observed in patients admitted to non-surgical services who subsequently required emergency laparotomy. Configuration of emergency general surgery services must accommodate safe and effective transfer of patients, both between and within hospitals.     

Comparison of POSSUM scoring and the Hardman Index in selection of patients for repair of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm

BACKGROUND: The aim was to assess to what extent the POSSUM (Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity) and Hardman scoring systems were predictive of outcome after surgery for ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (RAAA). METHODS: From January 1990 to December 2001, 232 patients presented with RAAA. Forty-one were treated conservatively and all died; the remainder had emergency surgery. The case notes of all but three of these patients were reviewed retrospectively. POSSUM and Hardman scores were calculated and related to mortality. RESULTS: The mortality rate after emergency repair was 54 per cent (104 of 191). The physiology-only POSSUM score specific for RAAA and the Hardman Index score were both significantly associated with increased mortality after operation (P < 0.001). Most non-operated patients were in the highest risk bands. CONCLUSION: Both POSSUM and Hardman scoring systems predicted outcome after emergency surgery for RAAA. The Hardman Index was simpler to calculate, but POSSUM identified a higher number of patients at risk. Risk scoring may help identify patients with RAAA for whom surgery is futile.     

Current UK practice in emergency laparotomy

Introduction

Emergency laparotomy is a common procedure, with 30,000–50,000 performed annually in the UK. This large scale study reports the current spectrum of emergency laparotomies, and the influence of the surgical procedure, underlying pathology and subspecialty of the operating surgeon on mortality.

Methods

Anonymised data on consecutive patients undergoing an emergency laparotomy were submitted for a three-month period. The primary outcome measure was unadjusted 30-day mortality. Appendicectomy and cholecystectomy were among the procedures excluded.

Results

Data from 1,708 patients from 35 National Health Service hospitals were analysed. The overall 30-day mortality rate was 14.8%. ‘True’ emergency laparotomies (ie those classified by the National Confidential Enquiry into Patient Outcome and Death as immediate or urgent) comprised 86.5% of cases. The mortality rate rose from 8.0% among expedited cases to 14.3% among urgent cases and to 25.7% among laparotomies termed immediate. Among the most common index procedures, small bowel resection exhibited the highest 30-day mortality rate of 21.1%. The presence of abdominal sepsis was associated with raised 30-day mortality (17.5% in the presence of sepsis vs 12.6%, p=0.027). Colorectal procedures comprised 44.3% and within this group, data suggest that mortality from laparotomy may be influenced by surgical subspecialisation.

Conclusions

This report of a large number of patients undergoing emergency laparotomy in the UK confirms a remarkably high mortality by modern standards across the range. Very few pathologies or procedures can be considered anything other than high risk. The need for routine consultant involvement and critical care is evident, and the case distribution helps define the surgical skill set needed for a modern emergency laparotomy service. Preliminary data relating outcomes from emergency colonic surgery to surgical subspecialty require urgent further study.     

Outcomes After Emergency Versus Elective Ventral Hernia Repair: A Prospective Nationwide Study

Background

Early surgical results after emergency repairs for the most frequent ventral hernias (epigastric, umbilical, and incisional) are not well described. Thus, the aim of present study was to investigate early results and risk factors for poor 30-day outcome after emergency versus elective repair for ventral hernias.

Methods

All patients undergoing epigastric, umbilical, or incisional hernia repair registered in the Danish Hernia Database during the period 1 January 2007 to 31 December 2010 were included in the prospective study. Follow-up was obtained through administrative data from the Danish National Patient Register.

Results

In total, 10,041 elective and 935 emergency repairs were included. The risk for 30-day mortality, reoperation, and readmission was significantly higher (by a factor 2–15) after emergency repairs than after elective repairs (p ≤ 0.003). In addition, there were significantly more patients with concomitant bowel resection after emergency repairs than after elective repairs (p < 0.001). Independent risk factors for emergency umbilical/epigastric hernia repair were female gender, older age, hernia defects >2–7 cm, and repair for a primary hernia (vs recurrent hernia) (all p < 0.05). Independent risk factors for emergency incisional hernia repair were female gender, increasing age, and hernia defects ≤7 cm (all p < 0.05).

Conclusions

Emergency umbilical/epigastric or incisional hernia repair was beset with up to 15-fold higher mortality, reoperation, and readmission rates than elective repair. Older age, female gender, and umbilical hernia defects between 2 and 7 cm or incisional hernia defects up to 7 cm were important risk factors for emergency repair.     

Clinical frailty and its effect on the septuagenarian population after emergency laparotomy

IntroductionThe UK has an ageing population with an increased prevalence of frailty in the over 70s. Emergency laparotomy for acute intra-abdominal pathology is increasingly offered to this population. This can challenge decision making and information given to patients should not only be based on mortality outcomes but on relative expected quality of life and change to frailty syndromes.Materials and methodsThis was a single site National Emergency Laparotomy Audit (NELA)-based retrospective cohort audit for consecutive cases in the septuagenarian population assessing mortality, length of stay outcome and subjective postoperative functioning. Follow-up was conducted between one and two years postoperatively to determine this.ResultsSome 153 patients were identified throughout the single site NELA database. Median age was 79 years with a ratio of 1.7 men to women. Median rate of all-cause mortality was 35.3% at the median follow-up of 19 months. Median time from admission to death was 120 days. Of those who had died by the time of follow-up, significant preoperative indicators included clinical frailty scale (p < 0.0001), preoperative P-POSSUM (mortality). At follow-up, 35% responded to a quality of life follow-up. This revealed a decline in mid-term physical functioning, lower energy, higher fatigue and reduction in social functioning. There was also an increase in pre- and postoperative clinical frailty scale score.ConclusionIn the septuagenarian-plus population it is important to consider not only risk stratification with mortality scoring (P-POSSUM or NELA-adjusted risk), but to take into account frailty. Postoperative rehabilitation and careful recovery is paramount. Where possible, during the counselling and consent for emergency laparotomy, significant postoperative long-term deterioration in physical, emotional and social function should be considered.