Psychosocial risk factors, weight changes and risk of obesity: the Copenhagen City Heart Study

The aim of the study was to establish the effects of a range of psychosocial factors on weight changes and risk of obesity. The study population consisted of the 4,753 participants in the third (1991–1994) and fourth wave (2001–2003) of the Copenhagen City Heart Study, Denmark. At baseline the participants were asked comprehensive questions on major life events, work stress, vital exhaustion, social network, economic hardship, and intake of sleep medication. Weight and height were measured by health professionals. Weight changes and incident obesity was used as outcome measures. The participants on average gained 2 kg of weight and 8% became obese during follow-up. The experience of major life events in childhood, work life and adult life was associated with weight gain and obesity in women, but not in men. Vital exhaustion was associated with weight gain in a dose–response manner in men (P = 0.002) and younger women (P = 0.02). Persons with high vital exhaustion gained approximately 2 kg more during follow-up compared to those with no vital exhaustion. Women with high vital exhaustion were also more likely to become obese during follow-up (OR = 2.39; 95% CI: 1.14–5.03). There were no clear patterns in the associations between social network, economic hardship and weight gain or obesity. The number of psychosocial risk factors, as an indicator for clustering, was not associated with weight gain or obesity. In conclusion, major life events and vital exhaustion seem to play a role for weight gain and risk of obesity, especially in women.     

Psychosocial determinants of coronary heart disease in middle-aged women: a prospective study in Sweden

A social gradient in coronary heart disease (CHD) has been documented in a variety of settings, predominantly among men. This study aimed to establish whether a social gradient in CHD existed in a group of Swedish women and whether it could be explained by established coronary risk factors or psychosocial factors. The Women's Lifestyle and Health Cohort Study includes 49,259 women from Sweden aged 30-50 years at baseline (1991-1992), when an extensive questionnaire was completed. There was complete follow-up through linkages to national registries until the end of 2002, during which time 210 cases of incident fatal CHD or nonfatal myocardial infarction occurred. Risk of CHD was significantly inversely related to years of education, the socioeconomic status proxy (hazard ratio comparing the lowest with the highest education group = 3.3, 95% confidence interval: 2.2, 4.7). This association was reduced after adjustment for established coronary risk factors (smoking, body mass index, alcohol consumption, diabetes, hypertension, exercise; hazard ratio = 1.9, 95% confidence interval: 1.3, 2.8). Job strain and social support were weakly related to CHD and did not explain the gradient by years of education. Self-rated health was strongly related to CHD, mediated by established coronary risk factors. Results show a strong gradient in CHD by years of education explained by established coronary risk factors but not by job strain or social support.     

Is radiographic vertebral fracture a risk factor for mortality?

Clinical fractures predict increased mortality risk, but few studies report mortality based on prevalent radiographically defined vertebral fracture. This study examined whether radiographically defined vertebral fracture is a risk factor for mortality in older adults. The 1,580 participants in California (631 men, 949 women) were aged > or =50 years in 1992-1996. Lateral spine radiographs, and information about medical history and behaviors, were obtained. Overall, 55 (8.7%) men and 123 (13%) women had at least one prevalent fracture at baseline; of these, 48 women and 14 men had two or more. Over 7.6 years, 460 participants died, 27.6% without and 41.0% with prevalent fractures (p < 0.001). Prevalent vertebral fracture was not associated with all-cause mortality in both sexes combined (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.09, 95% confidence interval: 0.84, 1.42) or sex-specific analyses (women: adjusted hazard ratio = 1.15, 95% confidence interval: 0.83, 1.59; men: adjusted hazard ratio = 0.89, 95% confidence interval: 0.55, 1.46). However, women with two or more prevalent fractures had increased risk of all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.56, 95% confidence interval: 1.01, 2.40; p = 0.04). Women with any prevalent vertebral fractures also had increased mortality risk from "other" causes (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.59, 95% confidence interval: 1.03, 2.45; p = 0.04) but not cardiovascular disease or cancer. A single radiographic vertebral fracture is not a risk for mortality in older women; larger, longer studies of men and those with two or more radiographic vertebral fractures are needed.     

Birth weight, infant weight gain, and cause-specific mortality: the Hertfordshire Cohort Study

Low birth weight, a marker of adverse intrauterine circumstances, is known to be associated with a range of disease outcomes in later life, including coronary heart disease, hypertension, type 2 diabetes, and osteoporosis. However, it may also decrease the risk of other common conditions, most notably neoplastic disease. The authors describe the associations between birth weight, infant weight gain, and a range of mortality outcomes in the Hertfordshire Cohort. This study included 37,615 men and women born in Hertfordshire, United Kingdom, in 1911-1939; 7,916 had died by the end of 1999. For men, lower birth weight was associated with increased risk of mortality from circulatory disease (hazard ratio per standard deviation decrease in birth weight = 1.08, 95% confidence interval: 1.04, 1.11) and from accidental falls but with decreased risk of mortality from cancer (hazard ratio per standard deviation decrease in birth weight = 0.94, 95% confidence interval: 0.90, 0.98). For women, lower birth weight was associated with a significantly (p < 0.05) increased risk of mortality from circulatory and musculoskeletal disease, pneumonia, injury, and diabetes. Overall, a one-standard-deviation increase in birth weight reduced all-cause mortality risk by age 75 years by 0.86% for both men and women.     

White blood cell count and risk for all-cause, cardiovascular, and cancer mortality in a cohort of Koreans

The authors conducted a 10-year prospective cohort study of mortality in relation to white blood cell counts of 437,454 Koreans, aged 40-95 years, who received health insurance from the National Health Insurance Corporation and were medically evaluated in 1993 or 1995, with white blood cell measurement. The main outcome measures were mortality from all causes, all cancers, and all atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases (ASCVD). Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using Cox proportional hazards models with adjustment for age and potential confounders. During follow-up, 48,757 deaths occurred, with 15,507 deaths from cancer and 11,676 from ASCVD. For men and women, white blood cell count was associated with all-cause mortality and ASCVD mortality but not with cancer mortality. In healthy nonsmokers, a graded association between a higher white blood cell count and a higher risk of ASCVD was observed in men (highest vs. lowest quintile: hazard ratio = 2.10, 95% confidence interval: 1.50, 2.94) and in women (hazard ratio = 1.35, 95% confidence interval: 1.17, 1.56). In healthy smokers, a graded association between a higher white blood cell count and a higher risk of ASCVD was also observed in men (highest vs. lowest quintile: hazard ratio = 1.46, 95% confidence interval: 1.25, 1.72). These findings indicate that the white blood cell count is an independent risk factor for all-cause mortality and for ASCVD mortality.     

Low incidence of hospitalization with gallbladder disease among blacks in the United States

Low rates of gallbladder disease among blacks have been reported but not systematically studied. The authors investigated the rate of hospitalization with a diagnosis of gallbladder disease in the follow-up in 1982-1984 of the first National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, a population-based study conducted across the United States in 1971-1975. Based on hospital discharge diagnoses of gallbladder disease, 368 cases were identified for the period 1971-1984 among 10,551 persons, aged 25-74 years, who denied gallbladder disease at the baseline examination. The crude incidence of gallbladder disease per 1,000 person-years was 2.59 for white men, 1.45 for black men, 4.09 for white women, and 2.35 for black women. Controlling for obesity, parity, ethanol consumption, use of diuretics, use of oral contraceptives, and two indicators of socioeconomic status, the authors found that the hazard rate of hospitalization with gallbladder disease increased with age for white women and decreased for black women. The hazard ratio for black women compared with white women at 30 years of age was 0.71 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.52-0.96, but at age 70, it was 0.18 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.09-0.37. For women, obesity and parity were important risk factors for gallbladder disease (p less than or equal to 0.001), and the use of diuretics was marginally associated (p = 0.08). Black men compared with white men had a hazard rate of gallbladder disease of 0.53 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.24-1.16. For men, increasing age was related to gallbladder disease (p less than 0.001), and obesity was weakly related (p = 0.06). The black/white hazard ratios decreased further when controlling for socioeconomic status, persisted if the study population was limited to those hospitalized during follow-up, and increased slightly for cases with an acute complication of gallbladder disease. Thus, differential access to medical care may not explain the lower rate among blacks.     

Socioeconomic status, structural and functional measures of social support, and mortality: The British Whitehall II Cohort Study, 1985-2009

The authors examined the associations of social support with socioeconomic status (SES) and with mortality, as well as how SES differences in social support might account for SES differences in mortality. Analyses were based on 9,333 participants from the British Whitehall II Study cohort, a longitudinal cohort established in 1985 among London-based civil servants who were 35-55 years of age at baseline. SES was assessed using participant's employment grades at baseline. Social support was assessed 3 times in the 24.4-year period during which participants were monitored for death. In men, marital status, and to a lesser extent network score (but not low perceived support or high negative aspects of close relationships), predicted both all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Measures of social support were not associated with cancer mortality. Men in the lowest SES category had an increased risk of death compared with those in the highest category (for all-cause mortality, hazard ratio = 1.59, 95% confidence interval: 1.21, 2.08; for cardiovascular mortality, hazard ratio = 2.48, 95% confidence interval: 1.55, 3.92). Network score and marital status combined explained 27% (95% confidence interval: 14, 43) and 29% (95% confidence interval: 17, 52) of the associations between SES and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, respectively. In women, there was no consistent association between social support indicators and mortality. The present study suggests that in men, social isolation is not only an important risk factor for mortality but is also likely to contribute to differences in mortality by SES.     

Erythrocyte sedimentation rate, an independent predictor of coronary heart disease in men and women: The Reykjavik Study

The relation between erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) and risk of developing coronary heart disease (CHD) or fatal cerebrovascular accident was assessed in a cohort of 7,988 men and 8,685 women who participated in The Reykjavik Study (Iceland). Cardiovascular risk assessment was based on characteristics at baseline, from 1967 to 1996. During an average follow-up of 19 and 20 years, 2,092 men and 801 women, respectively, developed CHD, and 251 men and 178 women died from cerebrovascular accident. For men, the fully adjusted increase in risk of developing CHD predicted by the top compared with the bottom quintile of ESR was 57% (hazard ratio = 1.57, 95% confidence interval: 1.38, 1.78; p < 0.001); for women, risk was increased by 49% (hazard ratio = 1.49, 95% confidence interval: 1.16, 1.90; p < 0.001). The increased risk after baseline ESR measurement was stable for up to 25 years for men and 20 years for women. The fully adjusted risk of death due to stroke predicted by increasing the ln(ESR + 1) by one standard deviation was increased by 15% for men (p = 0.06) and 16% for women (p = 0.08). In conclusion, ESR is a long-term independent predictor of CHD in both men and women. These findings support the evidence of an inflammatory process in atherosclerosis.     

Lung function and incident coronary heart disease: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study

The authors examined the association between lung function, as measured by forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) and forced vital capacity, and the 10-year incidence of coronary heart disease among 14,480 participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (1987-1998). Separate proportional hazards models were used for FEV1 and forced vital capacity, with gender-specific lung function quartiles and lung function x gender interaction terms. An association between lung function and coronary heart disease was observed in both genders and was stronger among women. After adjustment for age, race, study center, height, height squared, smoking, and cardiovascular disease risk factors, the hazard ratios for the first (lowest), second, and third quartiles of FEV1 were 3.70 (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.19, 6.24), 2.54 (95% CI: 1.49, 4.32), and 2.25 (95% CI: 1.31, 3.87) for women and 1.51 (95% CI: 1.07, 2.13), 1.59 (95% CI: 1.15, 2.20), and 1.52 (95% CI: 1.10, 2.09) for men. After stratification by smoking status, associations were observed in each smoking group for women, while those in men were weaker and less consistent. Similar results were obtained for forced vital capacity. This analysis indicates an association between lung function and incident coronary heart disease that may be stronger in women than in men.     

Maternal stress and preterm birth

This study examined a comprehensive array of psychosocial factors, including life events, social support, depression, pregnancy-related anxiety, perceived discrimination, and neighborhood safety in relation to preterm birth (<37 weeks) in a prospective cohort study of 1,962 pregnant women in central North Carolina between 1996 and 2000, in which 12% delivered preterm. There was an increased risk of preterm birth among women with high counts of pregnancy-related anxiety (risk ratio (RR) = 2.1, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.5, 3.0), with life events to which the respondent assigned a negative impact weight (RR = 1.8, 95% CI: 1.2, 2.7), and with a perception of racial discrimination (RR = 1.4, 95% CI: 1.0, 2.0). Different levels of social support or depression were not associated with preterm birth. Preterm birth initiated by labor or ruptured membranes was associated with pregnancy-related anxiety among women assigning a high level of negative impact weights (RR = 3.0, 95% CI: 1.7, 5.3). The association between high levels of pregnancy-related anxiety and preterm birth was reduced when restricted to women without medical comorbidities, but the association was not eliminated. The prospective collection of multiple psychosocial measures on a large population of women indicates that a subset of these factors is associated with preterm birth.     

Income and recurrent events after a coronary event in women

Strong evidence supports the existence of a social gradient in poor prognosis in patients with coronary heart disease (CHD). However, knowledge regarding what factors may explain this relationship is limited. We aimed to analyze in women CHD patients the association between personal income and recurrent events and to determine whether lifestyle, biological and psychosocial factors contribute to the explanation of this relationship. Altogether 188 women hospitalized for a cardiac event were assessed for personal income, demographic factors, lipids, inflammatory markers, cortisol, creatinine, lifestyle and psychosocial factors, i.e. alcohol consumption, smoking habits, body-mass index, depressive symptoms, anxiety, vital exhaustion, availability of social interaction, hostility and anger-related characteristics and were followed for cardiovascular death and recurrent acute myocardial infarction (AMI). During the 6-year follow-up 18 patients deceased and 31 experienced cardiovascular death or non-fatal AMI. After adjustment for confounders, patients with medium and high income had lower risk for recurrent events relative to those with low income (HR (95% CI): 0.38 (0.15-0.97) and 0.39 (0.17-0.93), respectively). Controlling for smoking reduced by 12.8% the risk for recurrent events associated with high versus low income, while adjusting for depression decreased the risk for middle versus low income by 13.5%. Anger symptoms explained 16.7% of the risk for recurrent events associated with middle versus low income and 10.2% of the risk for high versus low income. We suggest that in women with CHD low income is associated with recurrent events and that smoking, depressive symptomatology and anger symptoms may contribute to the explanation of this relationship.     

Social ties and change in social ties in relation to subsequent total and cause-specific mortality and coronary heart disease incidence in men

The authors prospectively examined the effects of social ties and change in social ties, as measured by a well-known social network index, on total and cause-specific mortality and on coronary heart disease incidence in 28,369 US male health professionals aged 42-77 years in 1988. Over 10 years, the relative risk of total mortality for men in the lower two levels of social integration compared with more socially integrated men was 1.19 (95% confidence interval: 1.06, 1.34) after controlling for age, occupation, health behaviors, general physical condition, coronary risk factors, and dietary habits. In multivariate analysis, deaths from accidents and suicide and from other noncancer, noncardiovascular causes were significantly increased among less socially connected men. Socially isolated men also had an increased risk of fatal coronary heart disease (multivariate relative risk = 1.82, 95% confidence interval: 1.02, 3.23). An increase in the overall social network index between 1988 and 1996 was not significantly associated with subsequent 2-year mortality. In analyses of change in social network components restricted to older men, each categorical unit increase in number of close friends was significantly associated with a 29% decrease in risk of death. Increase in religious service attendance over time was also significantly predictive of decreased mortality.     

The effect of social engagement on incident dementia: the Honolulu-Asia Aging Study

The authors examined whether low levels of social engagement in midlife and late life were associated with the risk of incident dementia in 2,513 Japanese-American men who have been followed since 1965 as part of the Honolulu Heart Program and the Honolulu-Asia Aging Study. In 1991, assessment of dementia began; incident dementia cases (n = 222) were diagnosed in 1994 and 1997. Social engagement was assessed in midlife (1968) and late life (1991). The relation between social engagement and dementia risk was examined using Cox proportional hazards models. No level of midlife social engagement was associated with the risk of dementia. In late life, compared with participants in the highest quartile of late-life social engagement, those in the lowest quartile had a significantly increased risk of dementia (hazard ratio = 2.34, 95% confidence interval: 1.18, 4.65). However, compared with those who were in the highest quartile of social engagement at both midlife and late life, only decreased social engagement from midlife to late life was associated with an increased risk of dementia (hazard ratio = 1.87, 95% confidence interval: 1.12, 3.13). Although low social engagement in late life is associated with risk of dementia, levels of late-life social engagement may already have been modified by the dementing process and may be associated with prodromal dementia.     

Dietary fat and risk of coronary heart disease: possible effect modification by gender and age

In a 16-year follow-up study (ending in 1998) of 3,686 Danish men and women aged 30-71 years at recruitment, the association between energy intake from dietary fat and the risk of coronary heart disease was evaluated while assessing the possible modifying role of gender and age. In the models used, total energy and protein intake were fixed. Differences in intake of energy from fat thus reflected complementary differences in intake of energy from carbohydrates. A 5% higher level of energy from saturated fat intake was associated with a 36% greater risk of coronary heart disease among women (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.36, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.98, 1.88). No overall association between saturated fat and coronary heart disease was found among men. However, age-dependent analyses showed that saturated fat was positively associated with coronary heart disease among the younger men (HR = 1.29, 95% CI: 0.87, 1.91) and the younger women (HR = 2.68, 95% CI: 1.40, 5.12) but not among the older men (HR = 0.94, 95% CI: 0.70, 1.28) and the older women (HR = 1.22, 95% CI: 0.86, 1.71). Polyunsaturated fat was inversely associated with coronary heart disease among women and men, although not significantly. In conclusion, the present study suggests that coronary heart disease risk relates to both the quantity and the quality of dietary fats.     

The gender gap in heart disease: lessons from Eastern Europe

Why are men more susceptible to heart disease than women? Traditional risk factors cannot explain the gender gap in coronary heart disease (CHD) or the rapid increase in CHD mortality among middle-aged men in many of the newly independent states of Eastern Europe. However, Eastern European men score higher on stress-related psychosocial factors than men living in the West. Comparisons between the sexes also reveal differences in psychosocial and behavioral coronary risk factors favoring women, indicating that women's coping with stressful events may be more cardioprotective. Men's greater susceptibility to heart disease, particularly observable in many Eastern European countries, poses unique threats to public health and points to solutions in the behavioral and social arena.     

Validation of reported myocardial infarction mortality in blacks and whites. A report from the Community Cardiovascular Surveillance Program.

It is widely believed that blacks experience a higher mortality due to coronary heart disease (CHD) than do whites. To determine whether this reported difference in mortality between blacks and whites is real, we studied the question in the context of the Community Cardiovascular Surveillance Program (CCSP). Fatal and nonfatal cases of CHD were reviewed in 12 US communities. Standardized criteria were applied to classify these cases as possible CHD, definite CHD, possible myocardial infarction (MI), or definite MI. The annual age-adjusted mortality rate per 100,000 ascribed to definite MI by the CCSP criteria was higher in blacks than in whites: 47 in white men (95% confidence interval, 36 to 58), 18 in white women (95% confidence interval, 8 to 28), 95 in black men (95% confidence interval, 10 to 180), and 41 for black women (95% confidence interval, 0 to 99). The proportion of definite MI to all fatal CHD events was higher in blacks (16%) than in whites (12%). For nonfatal events, however, the rate of definite MI was higher in whites than in blacks: 322 in white men (95% confidence interval, 293 to 351), 225 in black men (95% confidence interval, 160 to 290), 82 in black women (95% confidence interval, 43 to 121), and 103 in white women (95% confidence interval, 88 to 118). The proportion of definite MI to all nonfatal CHD events was lower in blacks (16%) than in whites (30%). Thus, the overall rate for fatal and nonfatal definite MI was lower in blacks (215/100,000) than in whites (244/100,000). These observations suggest that a combination of high case-fatality ratio and misclassification of cause and death may contribute to the reported higher rate of CHD mortality among blacks.     

Effects of an angry temperament on coronary heart disease risk : The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study

The objective of the study was to determine which component of an anger-prone personality more strongly predicts coronary heart disease (CHD) risk. Proneness to anger, as assessed by the Spielberger Trait Anger Scale, is composed of two distinct subcomponents-anger-temperament and anger-reaction. Participants were 12,990 middle-aged Black men and women and White men and women from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study who were followed for the occurrence of acute myocardial infarction (MI)/fatal CHD, silent MI, or cardiac revascularization procedures (average = 53 months; maximum = 72 months) through December 31, 1995. Among normotensive persons, a strong, angry temperament (tendency toward quick, minimally provoked, or unprovoked anger) was associated with combined CHD (acute MI/fatal CHD, silent MI, or cardiac revascularization procedures) (multivariate-adjusted hazard ratio = 2.10, 95% confidence interval: 1.34, 3.29) and with 'hard" events (acute MI/fatal CHD) (multivariate adjusted hazard ratio = 2.28, 95% confidence interval: 1.29, 4.02). CHD event-free survival among normotensives who had a strong, angry temperament was not significantly different from that of hypertensives at either level of anger. These data suggest that a strong, angry temperament rather than anger in reaction to criticism, frustration, or unfair treatment places normotensive, middle-aged persons at increased risk for cardiac events and may confer a CHD risk similar to that of hypertension.     

Emotional stress and traffic accidents: the impact of separation and divorce

BACKGROUND: Personal responses to stressful life events are suspected of increasing the risk of serious traffic accidents. METHODS: We analyzed data from a French cohort study (the GAZEL cohort), including a retrospective driving behavior questionnaire, from 13,915 participants (10,542 men age 52-62 years and 3373 women age 47-62 years in 2001). Follow-up data covered 1993-2000. Hazard ratios for serious accidents (n = 713) were computed by Cox's proportional hazard regression with time-dependent covariates. Separate analyses were also performed to consider only at-fault accidents. RESULTS: Marital separation or divorce was associated with an increased risk of a serious accident (all serious accidents: hazard ratio 2.9, 95% confidence interval = 1.7-5.0; at-fault accidents: 4.4, 2.3-8.3). The impact of separation and divorce did not differ according to alcohol consumption levels. Other life events associated with increased risk of serious accident were a child leaving home (all accidents: 1.2, 0.97-1.6; at-fault accidents: 1.5, 1.1-2.1), an important purchase (all accidents: 1.4, 1.1-1.7; at-fault accidents: 1.6, 1.2-2.1), and hospitalization of the partner (all accidents: 1.4, 1.1-2.0). CONCLUSION: This study suggests that recent separation and divorce are associated with an increase in serious traffic accidents.     

Standing at work and varicose veins

OBJECTIVES: This study attempts to determine whether or not prolonged standing at work involves an excess risk for the occurrence of varicose veins. METHODS: A cohort of 1.6 million 20-to-59-year-old Danes gainfully employed in 1991 were followed for 3 years according to first hospitalization due to varicose veins of the lower extremities. The exposure data came from a representative sample of the baseline population. Altogether 5940 people were interviewed about occupational exposure and confounding factors. RESULTS: For men working mostly in a standing position, the risk ratio for varicose veins was 1.85 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.33-2.36] in a comparison with all other men. The corresponding risk ratio for women was 2.63 (95% CI 2.25-3.02). The results were adjusted for age, social group, and smoking. CONCLUSIONS: Working in a standing position is associated with subsequent hospitalization due to varicose veins for both men and women.     

Does consideration of either psychological or material disadvantage improve coronary risk prediction? Prospective observational study of Scottish men

OBJECTIVE: To assess the value of psychosocial risk factors in discriminating between individuals at higher and lower risk of coronary heart disease, using risk prediction equations. DESIGN: Prospective observational study. SETTING: Scotland. PARTICIPANTS: 5191 employed men aged 35 to 64 years and free of coronary heart disease at study enrollment MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for risk prediction equations including different risk factors for coronary heart disease. RESULTS: During the first 10 years of follow up, 203 men died of coronary heart disease and a further 200 were admitted to hospital with this diagnosis. Area under the ROC curve for the standard Framingham coronary risk factors was 74.5%. Addition of "vital exhaustion" and psychological stress led to areas under the ROC curve of 74.5% and 74.6%, respectively. Addition of current social class and lifetime social class to the standard Framingham equation gave areas under the ROC curve of 74.6% and 74.9%, respectively. In no case was there strong evidence for improved discrimination of the model containing the novel risk factor over the standard model. CONCLUSIONS: Consideration of psychosocial risk factors, including those that are strong independent predictors of heart disease, does not substantially influence the ability of risk prediction tools to discriminate between individuals at higher and lower risk of coronary heart disease.