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Background

Unplanned intensive care unit readmission within 72 hours is an established metric of hospital care quality. However, it is unclear what factors commonly increase the risk of intensive care unit readmission in surgical patients. The objective of this study was to evaluate predictors of readmission among a diverse sample of surgical patients and develop an accurate and clinically applicable nomogram for prospective risk prediction.

Methods

We retrospectively evaluated patient demographic characteristics, comorbidities, and physiologic variables collected within 48 hours before discharge from a surgical intensive care unit at an academic center between April 2010 and July 2015. Multivariable regression models were used to assess the association between risk factors and unplanned readmission back to the intensive care unit within 72 hours. Model selection was performed using lasso methods and validated using an independent data set by receiver operating characteristic area under the curve analysis. The derived nomogram was then prospectively assessed between June and August 2017 to evaluate the correlation between perceived and calculated risk for intensive care unit readmission.

Results

Among 3,109 patients admitted to the intensive care unit by general surgery (34%), transplant (9%), trauma (43%), and vascular surgery (14%) services, there were 141 (5%) unplanned readmissions within 72 hours. Among 179 candidate predictor variables, a reduced model was derived that included age, blood urea nitrogen, serum chloride, serum glucose, atrial fibrillation, renal insufficiency, and respiratory rate. These variables were used to develop a clinical nomogram, which was validated using 617 independent admissions, and indicated moderate performance (area under the curve: 0.71). When prospectively assessed, intensive care unit providers’ perception of respiratory risk was moderately correlated with calculated risk using the nomogram (ρ: 0.44; P < .001), although perception of electrolyte abnormalities, hyperglycemia, renal insufficiency, and risk for arrhythmias were not correlated with measured values.

Conclusion

Intensive care unit readmission risk for surgical patients can be predicted using a simple clinical nomogram based on 7 common demographic and physiologic variables. These data underscore the potential of risk calculators to combine multiple risk factors and enable a more accurate risk assessment beyond perception alone.  相似文献   

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Abstract: Background: The use of induction immunosuppression after lung transplantation remains controversial. In this study, we examined the impact of induction on survival after lung transplantation. Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort study of 3970 adult lung transplant recipients reported to the ISHLT Registry. We divided the cohort into three groups based on the use of induction: none, interleukin‐2 receptor antagonists (IL‐2 RA), and polyclonal antithymocyte globulins (ATG). We estimated graft survival using the Kaplan‐Meier method and constructed a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model to examine the impact of induction on graft survival in the context of other variables. Results: During the study period, 2249 patients received no induction, 1124 received IL‐2 RA, and 597 received ATG. Four years after transplantation, recipients treated with IL‐2 RA had better graft survival (64%) than those treated with ATG (60%) and those who did not receive induction (57%; log rank p = 0.0067). This survival advantage persisted in the multivariable model for single and bilateral recipients treated with IL‐2 RA compared to those who did not receive induction (RR = 0.82, p = 0.007). Similarly, bilateral recipients treated with ATG had a survival advantage over bilateral recipients who did not receive induction (RR = 0.78, p = 0.043), but single lung recipients treated with ATG did not have a survival advantage over single lung recipients who did not receive induction (RR = 1.06, p = 0.58). Conclusions: Induction with lL‐2 RA for single and bilateral lung recipients and induction with ATG for bilateral recipients are associated with a survival benefit, independent of other variables that might impact survival.  相似文献   

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