吸毒人群基数估计方法的研究

目的 探讨估计吸毒人群基数的有效方法。方 法在乐山市市中区强制戒毒所、乐山市市中区自愿戒毒门诊和针具交换点收集相关数据资料，分别采用捕获一再捕获法、乘数法和德尔菲法对乐山市市中区现有吸毒人群基数进行估计。结果 捕获-再捕获法、乘数法和德尔菲法估计乐山市市中区现有吸毒分别为3455，1703和2600人。结论 依据戒毒所现存登记资料，采用捕获-再捕获法估计吸毒人群基数易于操作、费用低，结果可信性较好。乘数法计算简便，但在吸毒人群中获取准确的乘数较为困难。德尔菲法对难接触人群进行调查的可行性较好，但影响结果的主观因素较多。     

捕获再捕获法估计吸毒人群基数的数据模型研究

目的建立捕获-再捕获法估计吸毒人群基数的分析数据模型.方法收集和分析戒毒所登记资料,确定捕获期和捕获间隔期,建立捕获-再捕获法使用的分析数据模型,以估计当地吸毒人群基数.结果获得建立捕获-再捕获法使用的分析数据模型的方法.结论按照统一的方法建立数据分析模型是运用捕获-再捕获法对吸毒人群基数进行估计的关键.     

应用捕获-再捕获法估计某市静脉注射吸毒人员基数的研究

目的探索捕获-再捕获法在静脉注射吸毒人员基数估计中的应用,并对广东省某市静脉注射吸毒人员基数进行估计。方法采用捕获-再捕获法,利用市强制戒毒所登记的资料,估计全市静脉注射吸毒人员的基数。结果用捕获-再捕获法估计全市静脉注射吸毒人数为13017。结论运用捕获-再捕获法对静脉注射吸毒人数进行估计经济易行,结果较为可靠,较适合在卫生资源有限的情况下进行高危人群基数估计。     

卫生统计

052095吸毒人群基数估计方法的研究/袁萍…∥中国公共卫生.2003,19(8).1023～1024探讨估计吸毒人群基数的有效方法。在乐山市市中区强制戒毒所、乐山市市中区自愿戒毒门诊和针具交换点收集相关数据资料,分别采用捕获_再捕获法、、乘数法和德尔菲法对乐山市市中区现有吸毒人群基     

应用3种方法对某市吸毒人群基数估计实践研究

目的采用3种不同的基数估计方法对某市吸毒人群的基本规模进行估计,并综合3种方法所得结果,为吸毒人群艾滋病防治工作提供科学依据。方法对某市8个戒毒所登记在册的吸毒者调查,运用公安、司法等部门相关人员定性估计方法、捕获-再捕获法和简易乘数法对全市吸毒人群进行基数估计。结果该市公安部门登记在册的吸毒者共15856人,相关人员定性估计法估计该市吸毒人群基数约为32653人,捕获-再捕获法估计为85786～99446人（中位数为96407人）,简易乘数法估计为39106～50678人（中位数为48398人）,综合3种方法得到该市吸毒人群基数约为42900～90004人。结论该市吸毒人群的估计数量为登记在册人数的2.71～5.68倍。在实际工作中应在定性估计结果的基础上,根据实际需要,综合运用各种估计方法,以获得更准确的数字。     

乘数法与捕获-标记-再捕获法在男性同性恋人群基数估计中的比较应用

目的 通过调查估计广东省某地男性同性恋人群规模,探讨适合男性同性恋人群的基数估计方法.方法 按场所分层,确定6家活动场所为目标机构,分别应用乘数法与捕获-标记-再捕获法对广东省某地男性同性恋人群规模进行估计.结果 乘数法估计结果为24 893(95% CI:22 042～28 561)人;捕获-标记-再捕获法估计结果为30 978(95% CI:12 249～49 698)人.结论 运用乘数法对男性同性恋人群规模进行估计经济易行、结果可信;捕获-标记-再捕获法用时短,花费较低,但满足应用条件较困难.     

乘数法与捕获-标记-再捕获法在男性同性恋人群基数估计中的比较应用

目的通过调查估计广东省某地男性同性恋人群规模,探讨适合男性同性恋人群的基数估计方法。方法按场所分层,确定6家活动场所为目标机构,分别应用乘数法与捕获-标记-再捕获法对广东省某地男性同性恋人群规模进行估计。结果乘数法估计结果为24 893（95%CI:22 04228 561）人;捕获-标记-再捕获法估计结果为30 978（95%CI:12 24949 698）人。结论运用乘数法对男性同性恋人群规模进行估计经济易行、结果可信;捕获-标记-再捕获法用时短,花费较低,但满足应用条件较困难。     

邯郸市男性同性恋人群规模调查估计

目的调查估计邯郸市男性同性恋人群规模,分析影响评估结果的因素。方法结合乘数法和捕获-再捕获法对邯郸市男性同性恋活动场所进行调查估计。结果计算得出男性同性恋人群为1 453人,95%可信区间为（1 227,1 681）。结论捕获-再捕获法和乘数法都是比较可行的对男同性恋人群进行规模估计的间接方法。用时短,花费低,适合在卫生资源有限的情况下进行艾滋病高危人群的规模估计。     

广东省某市吸毒人群规模的估计研究

[目的]采用乘数法和捕获-标记-再捕获法估计广东省某市吸毒人群的数量,为该人群健康干预工作提供依据。[方法]对广东省某市社区、美沙酮维持治疗门诊和劳教所的吸毒人员进行调查,获得该人群的基本情况,依据该市8家强制戒毒所的吸毒人员数据,运用乘数法和捕获-标记-再捕获法估算该市的吸毒人群数量。[结果]该市吸毒人群以青壮年为主,文化程度较低,地区分布广泛,乘数法和捕获-标记-再捕获法估计的吸毒人员基数分别为49619,(47599～54734)人。[结论]乘数法与捕获-标记-再捕获法有较好的一致性,估计该市吸毒人数约为50000人,对吸毒人群的基数估计要根据实际需要综合运用各种估计方法。     

捕获-再捕获法在估算男男性行为人群中的应用

目的运用捕获-再捕获方法估计苏州市男男性行为(MSM)人群规模,为MSM人群艾滋病防治工作提供依据。方法利用苏州1家访问量最高的MSM网站进行在线调查,参与调查者视为第一次捕获;第二次捕获通过MSM志愿者分类滚雪球法在场所内进行。结果第一次捕获共461人参加问卷调查,其中合格对象199人;第二次捕获由12名MSM志愿者用分类滚雪球方式在酒吧、浴室、公园和网络等场所进行,共招募合格对象304人,其中11人参与过第一次调查。运用捕获-再捕获法公式估计2012年苏州市MSM人群规模约为5 100人(95%CI:2 500~7 700)。结论通过MSM网站利用捕获-再捕获法估计活跃MSM人群具有可行性,但估计结果准确性受其实施条件的影响。     

Twenty-five years of the AIDS epidemic in Brazil: principal epidemiological findings, 1980-2005

The Brazilian AIDS epidemic is undergoing important changes in its third decade. The present article reviews some central findings: the proportional reduction in cases related to injection drug use; the stability, in recent years, of new cases in the male homosexual/bisexual population; and the relative and absolute increment in heterosexual transmission, even though the estimates of incident rates still point to the first two categories mentioned as those most affected by the epidemic. Still should be detached the persistent increase in incidence rates among women and its stability in the younger age groups, probably the result of behavior changes (such as the consistent use among youth of condoms in sexual relations with casual partners and a reduction in cases related to injection drug use). It is well-know that HIV prevalence in the general population has stabilized at less than 1%, which characterizes Brazil as one of the countries with a concentrated epidemic. The article also emphasizes the growth of AIDS morbidity-mortality in the less favored socioeconomic strata and in women, and the stability of the mortality rate among men.     

应用乘数法估计某地男性同性恋人群基数的研究

目的通过调查估计某地区男性同性恋(MSM)人群基数,为该地区制订艾滋病预防控制策略提供科学依据。方法应用乘数法对目标人群基数进行估计。通过指定网站统计在规定时间内登陆该网站的该地区MSM人数(r),通过对当地MSM人群活动场所内、外的调查获得同时期内登陆上述网站人数的比例(p),从而获得乘数m(1/p),r与m相乘即为估算的当地MSM人群数(N)。结果在规定的时间内登陆指定网站的MSM人群中,每月去场所1次以上者和不去场所的MSM人数分别为403人、327人,二者的乘数(m)分别为1.253和1.563,该地区MSM人群估计人数为1016人,约占当地15～49岁男性成年人口数的0.48%。结论采用乘数法估计MSM人群的基数是可行的,但应充分考虑调查样本的代表性。     

湖北省4类艾滋病高危人群高危行为分析

[目的]通过分析湖北省全球基金艾滋病项目基线调查资料,了解湖北省4类艾滋病高危人群高危行为情况。[方法]采用描述性分析方法对艾滋病高危人群的高危行为进行对比。[结果]4类高危人群最近1次性行为安全套使用率平均为52.5%,暗娼人群安全套使用率最高,为92.8%,吸毒者和性病门诊就诊者次之,为26.7%,有偿献血人群最低,为22.3%。高危人群在过去3个月内发生性行为总是使用的人占17.1%,暗娼过去3个月性行为安全套使用率最高,总是使用的占65.4%;性病患者在过去3个月与非婚性伴发生性行为总是使用的有8.8%。暗娼人群中吸毒率为0.94%。吸毒者有24.9%采取口吸的方式,60.3%采取注射方式。性病门诊就诊者中吸毒率为0.48%,并且3种吸毒方式都存在。[结论]安全套使用项目应该扩大高危人群覆盖面,并加强健康教育的力度,降低艾滋病高危人群的高危行为。     

1994-2011年深圳市福田区艾滋病流行状况

目的 分析深圳市福田区1994 -2011年艾滋病流行状况.方法 运用描述性分析方法,对收集到的深圳市福田区1994 - 2011年间艾滋病疫情报告进行分析.结果 深圳市福田区1994-2011年间累计发现HIV/AIDS 798例,病例主要分布特征:年龄较为集中在20～40岁,以青壮年为主;多为暂住人口(65.3％);以男性为主(82.0％);以性接触感染为主(61.2％),而其中46.2％是经男男同性性接触感染.结论 1994 -2011年深圳市福田区艾滋病疫情在全人口中呈低流行态势,但在特定人群(如静脉注射吸毒人群、男男同性恋人群等)呈高流行态势,疫情正由高危人群向一般人群持续扩散.     

Developing surveillance for HIV transmission and risk behaviours among high-risk groups in a central London health district.

BACKGROUND: Our aim was to describe surveillance data on HIV transmission and risk behaviours in Camden and Islington, an inner London health district (population 360 000). This information is required to assess the effectiveness of HIV-AIDS prevention. METHODS: We focused on two groups in the local population most severely affected by the HIV epidemic: homosexual and bisexual men, and injecting drug users. Data were drawn from routine and survey data, national and local sources, and a special local survey. RESULTS: There were estimated to be 9250 homosexual men, with an estimated prevalence of 7.7 per cent (confidence interval (CI) 5.9-11.0) diagnosed with HIV infection resident within the health district, and 9900 injecting drug users, with an estimated prevalence of 0.8 per cent (CI 0.6-1.1), diagnosed with HIV infection. New HIV infections diagnosed amongst homosexual men having a named test in HIV testing services averaged 281 and was unchanged between 1992 and 1996. However, unlinked anonymous seroprevalence surveys showed a decline in HIV prevalence for both homosexual men attending a genito-urinary medicine clinic and for injecting drug users attending services. Local surveys indicated that, in the preceeding year, one in three homosexual men had had unprotected anal intercourse with a man, and 13 per cent of intravenous drug users had shared equipment. There appeared to be no change in these levels over the years studied. CONCLUSION: Population-based information on HIV is available at local level in England. It can be used for surveillance of HIV transmission and behaviour in high-risk groups, especially homosexual and bisexual men and intravenous drug users. Resources for HIV prevention are provided to all NHS districts, and surveillance is a cost-effective measure of the outcome of HIV prevention.     

Risk of AIDS in HIV seroconverters: A comparison between intravenous drug users and homosexual males

A multicentre cohort study was conducted in Italy to estimate the risk of developing AIDS in 261 intravenous drug users and 89 homosexual males for whom the seroconversion period was known.Four years after HIV seroconversion, AIDS incidence, estimated by Kaplan-Meier survival technique, was 13.8% for intravenous drug users and 16.2% for homosexual males; the difference was not statistically significant.These findings suggest that four years after seroconversion the risk of developing AIDS in HIV seropositive intravenous drug users is no higher than that of subjects who acquired HIV infection through sexual contact.Corresponding author.     

AUCKLAND HOMOSEXUAL MALES AND AIDS PREVENTION: A BEHAVIOURAL AND DEMOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTION

This, the first major study of male homosexual behaviour in New Zealand to be published, reports demographic and behavioural characteristics of 159 homosexual and bisexual males in Auckland. While more respondents were in relationships than in comparable North American studies, fewer were in relationships of greater than one year's duration. Older respondents tended to be disproportionately European. Condom usage, intravenous drug behaviour, AIDS education and AIDS proximity were all investigated. Homosexual behaviour is described using four categories of risk of HIV transmission: low risk, uncertain risk, risk due to co-factors, and high-risk activity. The implications of these results for AIDS prevention education and the spread of AIDS in New Zealand are discussed.