社区老年性痴呆筛选诊断的人工神经网络模型

目的探讨社区老年性痴呆(AD)筛选诊断的人工神经网络模型。方法通过现场流行病学整群抽样调查获取研究对象及有关信息;AD确诊根据中国精神疾病分类(CCMD-3)诊断标准,并参照国际疾病分类第10版(ICD-10)相关内容。采用原子吸收法检测研究对象全血中宏、微量元素含量,放射免疫分析法检测相关神经递质含量;数据库建立采用SPSS13.0软件,反向传播算法-人工神经网络模型(BP-ANN)的建立使用Clementine12.0软件。结果南昌、吉安、宜春三市6个社区实查≥60岁者4 350人,确诊AD患者214人,患病率为4.92%。从被研究者中抽取AD患者和非AD者各60名为建模对象,将其血中铁(Fe)、铜(Cu)、铁(Zn)、五羟色胺(5-HT)、多巴胺(DA)等17个变量作为网络的输入层,进行BP-ANN的拟合。所建模型的预测精度为75.00%,灵敏度为76.67%,特异度为83.33%;能够正确预测建模对象中88.33%的非AD者,78.79%的中型AD患者和47.37%的重型AD患者;输入变量敏感性系数排在前四位的依次为Al(0.156 3)、Cr(0.120 6)、5-HT(0.1090)和年龄(0.1010)。结论BP-ANN在社区老年性痴呆筛选(预测)中精度较高,具有一定的开发应用前景。     

预测短暂性脑缺血发作后极早期卒中风险评分的验证与改进

美国加州大学神经内科的Johnston等对现有的2种相似的预测短暂性脑缺血发作（TIA）后早期卒中风险的评分方法进行了验证，并得出和验证了一种改进的预测2d卒中风险的统一评分来通知紧急处理。     

Wells评分与修正的Geneva评分对肺栓塞的预测价值研究

目的评价Wells评分与修正的Geneva评分对肺栓塞的预测价值。方法连续选择2009年12月—2012年12月在我院住院的疑诊肺栓塞患者153例,均进行Wells评分与修正的Geneva评分,以肺动脉造影(CTPA)检查结果作为诊断肺栓塞的"金标准"。结果经CTPA检查确诊肺栓塞78例,Wells评分预测低度、中度、高度可能肺栓塞的符合率分别为0、49.5%、82.1%,修正的Geneva评分预测低度、中度、高度可能肺栓塞的符合率分别为33.3%、55.3%、90.9%。绘制ROC曲线发现,Wells评分预测肺栓塞的曲线下面积(AUC)为0.770〔95%CI(0.696,0.844)〕,修正的Geneva评分为0.733〔95%CI(0.653,0.813)〕,差异无统计学意义(P0.05)。Wells评分预测肺栓塞的最佳临界值为3.5分,此时的灵敏度为76.9%,特异度为66.7%;修正的Geneva评分预测肺栓塞的最佳临界值为5.5分,此时的灵敏度为60.3%,特异度为82.7%。结论 Wells评分与修正的Geneva评分均对肺栓塞有良好的预测价值,可根据患者情况选用或联合应用。     

GRACE评分对急性冠脉综合征患者心源性死亡风险的预测价值

目的探讨GRACE评分对急性冠脉综合征(ACS)患者住院期间心源性死亡风险的预测价值。方法回顾性纳入2009年1月至2010年12月住院治疗的ACS患者160例,住院期间(28 d内)发生心源性死亡患者60例(死亡组),同期住院存活患者100例(对照组)。收集患者入院基线时资料,并进行GRACE评分。采用ROC曲线计算GRACE评分对预测心源性死亡敏感性和特异性。结果死亡组患者的GRACE评分为(179.00±39.74)分,而对照组为(128.93±30.88)分,两组相比具有统计学差异(P0.01)。两组患者GRACE评分危险分层构成中,死亡组高危层比率明显高于对照组,而中低危层低于对照组,差异有显著统计学意义(P0.01)。对于ACS患者,GRACE评分在158分时,对应ROC曲线下面积最大为0.821(95%CI:0.743~0.899,P0.01),预测在院期间心源性死亡的敏感性为0.75,特异度0.85。结论 GRACE危险评分方法可以用于评估ACS患者住院期间心源性死亡风险;当GRACE评分在158分时,预测住院发生心源性死亡的敏感性和特异性均较好。     

海马回钩间距检测对早期诊断老年性痴呆的临床意义

目的对高危人群颅脑ＣＴ进行海马回钩间距的检测,有助于老年性痴呆的早期的发现。方法应用颅脑ＣＴ测量了海马回钩间距及海马回钩间距比、结果　健康组的海马回钩间距平均值为 ２０．２２±２． ２３ ｍｍ,海马回钩间距比为 １７． ６８±１, ８４％与轻度异常 组（２５．０８±２．７３ ｍｍ、２１．６２±１． ５５％）相比较,具有非常显著差异（Ｐ＜０．００１）、轻度异常组与痴呆前期组（２９． ４８±３． ３０ ｍｍ、２４．５３±２．２９％）相比较亦具有非常显著差异（Ｐ＜０．０１）。结论老年性痴呆临床前期就有海马回萎缩,使海马回钩间距扩大并随病程进展而增宽,有利于早期发现老年性痴呆。     

CT和临床评分对急性胰腺炎早期预测评估的比较研究

目的:研究比较早期急性胰腺炎(AP)应用临床评分和CT进行预测评估的价值.方法:抽取60例患者,调取时间为2019.01～2021.10范围,均确诊为AP,按照病情严重程度分组,其中40例为轻症AP(MAP)设为对比组,另20例为重症AP(SAP)设为分析组.2组均实施CT检查,评估腹部CT胰腺外炎症(EPIC)、Ba...     

两种评分预测结直肠癌患者术后并发症风险的研究

目的探讨外科Apgar评分和结直肠-生理和手术危险度评分预测结直肠癌患者术后并发症风险的价值。 方法回顾性分析2017年9月~2018年9月间中国医学科学院肿瘤医院重症医学科（ICU）收治的接受结直肠癌手术的患者资料。全组177例。回顾计算每例患者的外科Apgar评分（SAS）和结直肠-生理和手术危险度评分（CR-POSSUM）。根据患者术后是否发生并发症分为无并发症组和有并发症组。根据患者术后并发症的发生情况分为严重并发症组和无或轻微并发症组。严重并发症定义为Clavien-Dindo分级III级以上的并发症。 结果单因素分析发现：术中SAS评分和CR-POSSUM评分均不能预测术后严重并发症的发生。单因素分析还发现：仅术中SAS评分可预测术后并发症的发生（χ²=6.127,P=0.013）,而CR-POSSUM评分不能预测术后并发症发生。受试者工作曲线分析发现术中SAS评分预测患者结直肠癌术后发生并发症的AUROC为0.605±0.043［（95%可信区间：0.521~0.689）,P=0.017］。取截尾值为9时,术中SAS评分预测患者结直肠术后发生严重并发症的敏感性58.8%和特异性60.0%。 结论术中SAS评分与结直肠癌患者术后并发症的发生相关,但是预测能力中等,需要配合其他工具共同使用。     

THRIVE评分预测缺血性卒中转归和溶栓出血风险

在以往的研究中,血管事件患者总体健康风险（Totaled Health Risksin Vascular Events,THRIVE）评分已经显示出广泛的用途,使预测临床转归、死亡和组织型纤溶酶原激活剂（tissue—type plasminogen activator,tPA）治疗后的出血风险成为可能,而不论应用的急性卒中治疗类型如何。     

颅内动脉瘤血管内栓塞术后复发风险预测评分模型的建立与验证

目的建立一个综合、简易、有效的复发风险预测评分模型以评估颅内动脉瘤血管内栓塞术后复发可能性大小,为手术方案的选择及术后处理提供指导意义。方法回顾性纳入长海医院神经外科2012年5月至2014年5月接受血管内栓塞治疗的颅内动脉瘤患者434例(共441个动脉瘤)并作为建模组,模型建立后,前瞻性纳入2015年1月至6月接受血管内栓塞治疗的颅内动脉瘤患者109例(共109个动脉瘤)并作为验证组。在建模队列中,依据前期动脉瘤复发危险因素的多因素Logistic回归分析结果建立复发风险预测评分模型;在验证队列中对模型进行验证。根据建模组评分模型受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线最佳cut-off值将评分表分为复发低危和复发高危。将复发风险预测评分模型与北美复发风险分层评分(ARSS)模型和Raymond分级进行比较。结果多因素Logistic回归分析显示,纳入评分并最终建立复发风险预测评分模型的3个因素为非支架辅助栓塞(1分)、Raymond分级≥Ⅱ级(1分)及动脉瘤大小[动脉瘤25 mm(3分),动脉瘤10~25 mm(1分),动脉瘤10 mm(0分)]。验证提示该评分体系具有较高的预测价值(AUC=0.738,95%CI:0.641~0.834,P0.05)和拟合优度(Hosmer-Lemeshowχ2=2.109,P=0.146);将评分模型进一步分为复发低危(0~1分)和复发高危(2~5分),其敏感度为72.73%(48/66),特异度为68.80%(258/375)。动脉瘤复发风险预测评分模型的预测能力与ARSS评分相似(χ2=0.54,P=0.462),并且优于Raymond分级(χ2=15.10,P0.01)。结论该研究所构建的简易动脉瘤复发风险预测评分模型可准确预测动脉瘤复发,但尚需开展多中心大样本的前瞻性研究以进一步验证。     

老年急性ST段抬高型心肌梗死患者发生心脏破裂的风险评分模型

目的：探讨老年急性ST段抬高型心肌梗死（STEMI）合并心脏破裂患者的临床特征及建立风险评分模型。方法：回顾性分析2013年9月至2019年6月,新疆维吾尔自治区人民医院心脏重症监护室（CCU）确诊为老年STEMI的患者74例,其中诊断心脏破裂（CR）患者37例为观察组,非心脏破裂患者（Non-CR）37例为对照组,统计两组患者临床资料,采用Logistic回归方法分析具有心脏破裂预测价值的相关危险因素,采用受试者工作特征（ROC）计算曲线下面积（AUC）及Hosmer-Lemeshow检验检测模型鉴别效度和校准度,并在验证组中验证该模型。结果：CR组和非CR组的住院死亡率分别为72.9%(27例)和48.6%(18例)（P=0.033）。逐步多因素回归分析显示与CR相关的危险因素包括：高龄（OR=3.358,95%CI:1.081～1.706,P=0.009）,女性（OR=2.852,95%Cl:1.528～2.397,P=0.006）,未急诊行PCI治疗（OR=0.053,95%Cl:0.006～0.510,P=0.005）, LVEF(OR=1.383,95%Cl:1.175～1...     

A clinical risk score for prediction of stent thrombosis

The aim was to develop a clinically useful patient risk score predictive for stent thrombosis (ST). Using readily available baseline clinical and angiographic characteristics, a Cox proportional hazards multivariate model was used to identify significant (p <0.10) predictors of ST through 1 year in 2,487 patients receiving a TAXUS Express (Boston Scientific Corp., Natick, Massachusetts) drug-eluting stent (DES) in the ARRIVE 1 registry. Hazard ratios of significant predictors were rounded to an integer value ranging from 2 to 5. These values were summed for a maximum possible score of 24. The model was validated using 1-year data from a similar DES data set (ARRIVE 2, n = 4,820 patients). The 8 significant predictors found were thienopyridine therapy discontinuation before 6 months, insulin-requiring diabetes, smoker at baseline, left main stent placement, multiple stent placement, lesion length >28 mm, moderate to severe lesion calcification, and reference vessel diameter <3 mm. Model discrimination was high, indicated by an area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve of 0.819. Stratification of patients into low-, medium-, and high-risk groups showed that ST developed in 0.8% of patients with a score <6, 3.6% of patients with a score of 7 to 13, and 12.6% of patients with a score >or=14. In conclusion, using 8 readily available clinical and angiographic characteristics, we defined an ST risk score for patients receiving a DES during the first year. Analysis of patients from ARRIVE 1 and 2 showed that most (73%) were in the lowest risk category, with 25% in the moderate risk category. Less than 2% were at highest risk of developing ST.     

Framingham risk score and prediction of lifetime risk for coronary heart disease

We investigated whether the Framingham risk score, which was designed to estimate the 10-year risk of coronary heart disease (CHD), differentiates lifetime risk for CHD. All subjects in the Framingham Heart Study examined from 1971 to 1996 who were free of CHD were included. Subjects were stratified into age- and gender-specific tertiles of Framingham risk score, and lifetime risk for CHD was estimated. We followed 2,716 men and 3,500 women; 939 developed CHD and 1,363 died free of CHD. At age 40 years, in risk score tertiles 1, 2, and 3, respectively, the lifetime risks for CHD were 38.4%, 41.7%, and 50.7% for men and 12.2%, 25.4%, and 33.2% for women. At age 80 years, risks were 16.4%, 17.4%, and 38.8% for men and 12.8%, 22.4%, and 27.4% for women. The Framingham risk score stratified lifetime risk well for women at all ages. It performed less well in younger men but improved at older ages as remaining life expectancy approached 10 years. Lifetime risks contrasted sharply with shorter term risks: at age 40 years, the 10-year risks of CHD in tertiles 1, 2, and 3, respectively, were 0%, 2.2%, and 11.6% for men and 0%, 0.7%, and 2.3% for women. The Framingham 10-year CHD risk prediction model discriminated short-term risk well for men and women. However, it may not identify subjects with low short-term but high lifetime risk for CHD, likely due to changes in risk factor status over time. Further work is needed to generate multivariate risk models that can reliably predict lifetime risk for CHD.     

Establishing a prediction model for coronary angiography based on coronary risk factors

The aim of the present study was to establish an evidence-based effective prediction model for improving the accuracy and priority for undertaking coronary angiography. The sample population consisted of 2002 coronary angiography patients. Our data were taken from claim forms provided by the Taiwanese Bureau of National Health Insurance. The results were tested using chi-square automatic interaction detection to establish a prediction model using coronary risk factors. We found significant variation across homogeneous groups, with the probabilities of developing coronary heart disease (CHD) varying according to risk factors such as sex, hypertension, diabetes, age, and physical inactivity. The study also explored the influence of interactions among patient characteristics. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of our study were 92.0%, 35.4%, and 76.5% respectively, indicating the diagnostic accuracy of the model is at least as high as the treadmill exercise test. The results suggest that the accuracy of a decision concerning the performance of cardiac angiography can be significantly enhanced by an evidence-based effective prediction model that takes interactions between risk factors into account. This model also helps to priortize patients waiting to undergo coronary angiography.     

A new score for improving cardiovascular risk prediction and prevention

Background and aimsThe ultrasonographic detection of subclinical atherosclerosis (scATS) at carotid and femoral vascular sites using the atherosclerosis burden score (ABS) improves the risk stratification for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease beyond traditional cardiovascular (CV) risk factors. However, its predictive value should be further enhanced. We hypothesize that combining the ABS and the Framingham risk score (FHRS) to create a new score called the FHRABS will improve CV risk prediction and prevention. We aim to investigate if incorporating the ABS into the FHRS improved CV risk prediction in a primary prevention setting.Methods and results1024 patients were included in this prospective observational cohort study. Carotid and femoral plaques were ultra-sonographic detected. Major incident cardiovascular events (MACEs) were collected. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC-AUC) and Youden's index (Ysi) were used to compare the incremental contributions of each marker to predict MACEs.After a median follow-up of 6.0 ± 3.3 years, 60 primary MACEs (5.8%) occurred. The ROC-AUC for MACEs prediction was significantly higher for the FHRABS (0.74, p < 0.024) and for the ABS (0.71, p < 0.013) compared to the FHRS alone (0.71, p < 0.46). Ysi or the FHRABS (42%, p < 0.001) and ABS (37%, p < 0.001) than for the FHRS (31%). Cox proportional-hazard models showed that the CV predictive performance of FHRS was significantly enhanced by the ABS (10.8 vs. 5.5, p < 0.001) and FHRABS (HR 23.30 vs. 5.50, p < 0.001).ConclusionsFHRABS is a useful score for improving CV risk stratification and detecting patients at high risk of future MACEs. FHRABS offers a simple-to-use, and radiation-free score with which to detect scATS in order to promote personalized CV prevention.     

血管性痴呆危险因素的研究

目的研究脑梗死后痴呆的危险因素。方法本研究纳入546例脑梗死急性期住院患者,完成随访434例,于住院期间和脑卒中3个月后进行神经心理测试,其中痴呆组118例,非痴呆组316例。运用t检验、χ2检验和logistic回归法分析血管性痴呆的发生率和危险因素。结果本研究中血管性痴呆的发生率为27.2%。单因素分析表明,血管性痴呆组的年龄比非痴呆组高8.5岁,在低教育水平(小学以下)、每日饮酒、脑卒中史等方面的比例显著高于非痴呆组。logistic回归分析表明,年龄、低教育水平、每日饮酒和脑卒中史与血管性痴呆相关。结论血管性痴呆是血管因素和退行性因素共同作用的结果,其中血管因素在血管性痴呆发病机制中起主导作用。年龄、低教育水平、每日饮酒和脑卒中史是血管性痴呆的危险因素。