Factors predicting outcome after selective ERCP in the laparoscopic era.

This study assessed the outcome of 342 patients with in situ gallbladders undergoing ERCP for suspected choledocholithiasis. The result of ERCP was found to play a significant role (P < 0.0001) in determining whether patients were subsequently managed conservatively (n = 152) or underwent either laparoscopic (n = 110) or open (n = 80) surgery. Those undergoing laparoscopic surgery were noted to be younger (P = 0.0001) and were less likely to be jaundiced (P = 0.0015) or have CBD stones at ERCP (P = 0.0295). In 28 patients with CBD stones remaining after ERCP, pre- rather than postoperative timing of ERCP prevented a potential second operation. The current success rate of 85% in clearing CBD stones at ERCP cannot support a routine policy of intraoperative cholangiography followed by postoperative ERCP.     

Factors predicting successful stereotactic aspiration of colloid cysts.

Stereotactic aspiration is a valuable surgical alternative for colloid cysts, but due to cyst heterogeneity, it is not uniformly successful as the sole treatment in all patients. Since 1981, we performed CT-guided stereotactic aspiration as the initial procedure in 25 patients with colloid cysts. We retrospectively reviewed our experience in the first 22 patients and found that preoperative CT imaging studies accurately determined size and predicted cyst viscosity. The preoperative CT appearance of a hypodense or isodense cyst correlated favorably with successful aspiration. Preoperative MRI provided excellent anatomic definition of the cyst and its relationship to other structures, but failed to correlate successful aspiration. Unsuccessful aspiration was related to the high viscosity of the intracystic material or deviation of the cyst away from the aspiration probe. These factors were used prospectively in 3 additional patients to accurately predict success of cyst aspiration.     

Factors predicting outcome after whiplash injury in subjects pursuing litigation

Records of 277 patients presenting for medicolegal reporting following isolated whiplash injury were studied retrospectively. A range of pre-accident, accident and response variables were recorded. Multivariate analysis was used to determine the main factors that predict physical and psychological outcome after whiplash injury. The factors that showed significant association with poor outcome on both physical and psychological outcome scales were pre-injury back pain, high frequency of General Practitioner attendance, evidence of pre-injury depression or anxiety symptoms, front position in the vehicle and pain radiating away from the neck after injury. The strongest associations were with factors that are present before impact. In this selected cohort of patients, there is a physical and a psychological vulnerability that may explain the widely varied response to low violence indirect neck injury.No financial assistance was required to complete this study.     

Factors predicting the outcome of primary clubfoot surgery.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to determine the rate of further surgery, the functional outcome and the factors associated with outcome after primary clubfoot surgery. METHOD: We conducted a retrospective study of a cohort of all children who were less than 2 years of age at the time of surgery for idiopathic clubfoot deformity at the Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, Ont., a tertiary care pediatric hospital. Of the 91 families who could be contacted, 63 agreed to return. The children's charts were reviewed, and their feet were given a Functional Rating System (FRS) score. RESULTS: Of the original operated population (n = 126), 75% were male and 41% had bilateral clubfoot. The average age at the time of surgery was 8 months, and the mean follow-up was 80.6 months. Further surgery was performed in 19% of cases. The mean FRS outcome score was 79. On average, the FRS score increased by 1.9 points as age at the time of surgery increased by 1 month. Only the presurgical talocalcaneal index was associated with the need for further surgery. CONCLUSION: The need for further surgery was 19% overall. Children who had surgery closer to 12 months of age had better functional results. Therefore, surgery should probably be performed in the second, rather than the first, 6 months of life.     

Low-back pain. Factors of value in predicting outcome

Two separate samples of 50 workers' compensation patients were assessed within 3 to 6 months of their first back injury and were reassessed at a mean of 13.7 months postinjury, at which time work status was also determined. A number of predictors on the first assessment then were correlated with return to work. These predictors included orthopaedic evaluations of severity and prognosis, the number of nonorganic physical signs, Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI) scales 1 and 3, age, education, proficiency in English, and the accuracy of patients' understanding of the bases for their medical condition as determined by the Schema Assessment Instrument (SAI). The SAI was the only variable to predict return to work significantly in both samples. These data point to the importance of patients' understanding of their medical condition for their prognosis.     

Factors predicting successful noninvasive ventilation in acute lung injury

PURPOSE: Noninvasive ventilation (NIV) has been successfully used to treat various forms of acute respiratory failure. It remains unclear whether NIV has potential as an effective therapeutic method in patients with acute lung injury (ALI). The aims of this study were to determine factors predicting the need for endotracheal intubation in ALI patients treated with NIV, and to promote the selection of patients suitable for NIV. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study of all patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) of the Nippon Medical School Hospital from 2000 to 2006 with a diagnosis of ALI, in whom NIV was initiated. RESULTS: A total of 47 patients with ALI received NIV, and 33 patients (70%) successfully avoided endotracheal intubation. Patients who required endotracheal intubation had a significantly higher Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score and a significantly higher Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II, and a significantly lower arterial pH. The respiratory rate decreased significantly within 1 h of starting NIV only in patients successfully treated with NIV. An APACHE II score of more than 17 (P = 0.022) and a respiratory rate of more than 25 breaths x min(-1) after 1 h of NIV (P = 0.024) were independent factors associated with the need for endotracheal intubation. Patients who avoided endotracheal intubation had a significantly lower ICU mortality rate and in-hospital mortality rate than patients who required endotracheal intubation. CONCLUSION: We determined an APACHE II score of more than 17 and a respiratory rate of more than 25 breaths x min(-1) after 1 h of NIV as factors predicting the need for endotracheal intubation in ALI patients treated with NIV.     

Factors influencing pregnancy outcome after trauma.

Trauma complicating pregnancy represents a significant threat to maternal survival and successful pregnancy outcome. Combining trauma center and perinatal center capabilities may provide improved outcome for pregnant trauma victims. The authors report their experience with 39 patients over a 10-year period to identify factors that influenced pregnancy outcome. There was 100 per cent maternal survival with a 77 per cent successful pregnancy rate. Unsuccessful pregnancy was associated with significantly higher injury severity score (ISS); regional abdominal abbreviated injury scores (AIS) and hospital charges; longer hospital and intensive care unit lengths of stay; a higher incidence of intubation and placenta abruptio; and a lower admission systolic blood pressure. Fetal ultrasound or Doppler were routinely used and contributed to trauma management. These findings support close cooperation and coordination of trauma and perinatal services to achieve optimal maternal and pregnancy outcomes.     

Factors predicting outcome of hypocalcaemia following total thyroidectomy

Postoperative hypocalcaemia is often observed after total thyroidectomy. In patients requiring calcium replacement therapy after 1 year, hypocalcaemia must be considered permanent. The aim of this study was to assess the incidence of hypocalcaemia following total thyroidectomy and to evaluate the risk factors predicting delayed outcome such as hypoparathyroidism. From January 1998 to September 2001, 310 patients underwent total thyroidectomy in our department. In a total of 37 patients experiencing hypocalcaemia, the authors carried out a comparative study of 34 patients with transient hypocalcaemia (group A) and 3 patients with permanent hypocalcaemia (group B). The incidences of transient and permanent hypocalcaemia were 11.9% and 0.9%, respectively. Central neck lymph-node dissection performed in cases of thyroid carcinoma correlated with permanent hypoparathyroidism. The most significant factors predicting long-term outcome of hypocalcaemia were low serum calcium levels (< 8 mg/dl) and high serum phosphorus levels (> 5 mg/dl) measured on postoperative day 7, despite oral calcium replacement. The indications for lymph-node dissection in the central neck area should be very strictly selected. When delayed serum calcium and phosphorus levels are unfavourable, thorough follow-up of patients is mandatory in order to administer the correct therapy and prevent the consequences of chronic hypocalcaemia.     

Factors predicting 10-year survival after heart transplantation.

BACKGROUND: We sought to identify factors predictive of long-term (>10-year) survival in heart transplant (HTx) recipients. METHODS: Four hundred fifteen adult patients underwent HTx at our institution between August 1982 and May 1997. The 158 patients who survived >10 years (Group A) and the 116 patients who died between 2 and 6 years (Group B) of HTx were compared in terms of gender, gender mismatch, ethnicity, age, height, weight, United Network for Organ Sharing status, type of induction therapy (OKT3 or anti-thymocyte globulin), infections (bacterial, viral, fungal and protozoal), cytomegalovirus (CMV) status, CMV mismatch, diabetes mellitus, hypertension and incidence of rejection episodes and transplant coronary artery disease within 2 years of HTx. RESULTS: Group A (135 men, 23 women; mean age 48 +/- 11 years) had significantly fewer post-HTx rejection episodes and viral, bacterial, fungal and total infections than did Group B (95 men, 21 women; mean age 49 +/- 12 years). Group A also had a significantly lower mean donor age, a lower incidence of pre-HTx diabetes, and a lower mean cholesterol level 1 year after HTx. In a multivariate analysis, fewer bacterial infections and rejection episodes after HTx, the absence of pre-HTx diabetes, and lower donor age were associated with longer survival. CONCLUSIONS: Pre-HTx diabetes, donor age and incidences of infection and rejection within 2 years of HTx predict long-term (>10-year) survival. Better control of infection and rejection during the first 2 years after HTx may improve survival.     

Clinicopathological factors predicting outcome after resection of mass-forming intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND: The prognosis for patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma differs according to macroscopic type. The identification of clinical and pathological features that predict outcome in patients with mass-forming intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma is required in order to determine optimal surgical strategies for patients with this type of tumour. METHODS: The details of 35 patients with resected mass-forming intrahepatic cholangiocarcinomas were analysed retrospectively. Univariate analysis of potential prognostic factors was performed. RESULTS: The cumulative survival rate at 1, 3 and 5 years after operation was 58, 33 and 33 per cent respectively. Patients with stage II tumours had a better outcome than those with advanced stage tumours. By univariate analysis, lymphatic invasion, lymph node metastasis, intrahepatic satellite lesions and microscopic resection margin involvement were found to be highly significant variables and were identified as possible risk factors for a poor outcome after operation. CONCLUSION: When frozen-section examination of lymph nodes reveals negative nodal metastasis, extensive anatomical hepatic resection is indicated for mass-forming intrahepatic cholangiocarcinomas. Intraoperative frozen-section examination of the resection margin to confirm the absence of cancer cells is recommended.     

Factors influencing outcome after blunt duodenal injury.

Thirty-six patients with blunt duodenal injury have been treated at Detroit General Hospital since 1960. The majority of the patients were driving an automobile under the influence of alcohol and none were wearing seat restraints. Diagnosis was often delayed due to a failure to recognize the significant, but subtle, physical and roentgenographic findings of retro-peritoneal injury. Morbidity and mortality were related to a delay in operative intervention, the severity of duodenal injury, the presence and degree of associated pancreatic injury, and the choice of operative therapy. Patients with intramural hematoma or complete duodenal perforation without pancreatic injury did well with simple closure or evacuation of the hematoma. Patients with duodenal perforation and minor pancreatic injury did best after primary closure and pancreatic drainage if operation was performed within 24 hours; delay beyond 24 hours resulted in a high incidence of duodenal fistula after simple closure, and therefore is an indication for a bypass procedure, such as a distal gastrectomy, vagotomy, tube duodenostomy, and gastrojejunostomy. Patients with combined duodenal and major pancreatic disruption did best after a bypass procedure when the main pancreatic ductal system was intact, whereas pancreaticoduodenectomy was the best procedure when the main pancreatic duct was disrupted.     

The role of dead space ventilation in predicting outcome of successful weaning from mechanical ventilation.

BACKGROUND: The exact mechanism by which tracheostomy results in clinical improvement in respiratory function and liberation from mechanical ventilation remains unknown. Physiologic dead space, which includes both normal and abnormal components of non-gas exchange tidal volume, is a clinical measure of the efficiency of ventilation. Theoretically, tracheostomy should reduce dead space ventilation and improve pulmonary mechanics, thereby facilitating weaning from mechanical ventilation. METHODS: This study compares arterial blood gases (ABG), pulmonary mechanics, including minute ventilation (VE) and dead space ventilation (Vd/Vt) within 24 hours before and after tracheostomy in 45 patients admitted to a surgical intensive care unit. RESULTS: There was no difference noted in patients' ABG or VE. Pre- and posttracheostomy change in Vd/Vt was negligible (50.7 and 10 vs. 51.9 and 11; p = NS). On subgroup analysis, those patients that were weaned from mechanical ventilation with 72 hours of tracheostomy (T3) were compared with those patients weaned from mechanical ventilation 5 days or more after tracheostomy (T+5). Again, no difference was found in pulmonary mechanics or Vd/Vt pre- and posttracheostomy. CONCLUSION: There is minimal improvement in pulmonary mechanics after tracheostomy. The change in physiologic dead space posttracheostomy does not predict the outcome of weaning from mechanical ventilation. Tracheostomy does allow better pulmonary toilet, and easier initiation and removal of mechanical ventilation and control of the upper airway.     

Factors predicting success after microsurgical vasovasostomy

Purpose

To identify factors predicting success and analyze critically the status of microsurgical double-layer vasovasostomy using predictive models.

Methods

A cohort of 263 patients treated at our institution for vasectomy reversal between 1986 and 2010 was included in our study, and the literature was reviewed. Inclusion criteria were previous bilateral vasectomy and presence of at least two postoperative semen analyses; patients reporting pregnancy without a postoperative semen analysis were excluded. A double-layer, microscope-assisted, tension-free anastomosis vasovasostomy was performed approximating mucosa to mucosa and muscle to muscle with a 10-0 non-absorbable suture. A multivariate logistic regression backward stepwise model was used to predict combined success, and a predictive model was calculated with remaining variables.

Results

Mean age was of 41.6 years (SD 7.1); mean duration of obstruction 7.2 years (SD 6.7). On multivariate analysis, uni- or bilateral granuloma and Silber grade of I–III were variable identified predicting higher probability to success (OR 3.105; 95% CI 1.108–8.702; p = 0.031 and OR 4.795; 95% CI 2.117–10.860; p < 0.001, respectively).

Conclusions

Based on our results, some factors predicting success after vasovasostomy surgery are known but others remain unknown; our predictive model may easily predict patency and success after this surgery and offers a concrete assistance in counseling patients.

     

Predictors of a successful outcome for infants with short bowel syndrome: a 30-year single-institution experience

Purpose

Short-bowel syndrome (SBS) is associated with high morbidity and mortality. We conducted this study to establish the predictors of survival and weaning off parenteral nutrition (PN).

Methods

We reviewed the medical records of 16 SBS infants treated at our institution within a 30-year period. SBS was defined as a residual small-bowel length (RSBL) of <75 cm. Loss of the ileocecal valve (ICV), cholestasis (D-Bil >2.0 mg/dl), enterostomy, and RSBL were all evaluated. Kaplan–Meier analysis was used to analyze the predictors.

Results

The mean RSBL was 34.9 ± 22.9 cm. Six patients died (37.5%) and nine patients were weaned off PN (56.3%). Significant differences were observed in cholestasis (p < 0.03), enterostomy (p < 0.01), an absolute RSBL of <30 cm (p < 0.04), and a percentage of expected RSBL of <10% (p < 0.04) as survival predictors. Significant differences were also observed for cholestasis (p < 0.01), loss of the ICV (p < 0.04), an absolute RSBL of <20 cm (p < 0.01), and a percentage of expected RSBL of <10% (p < 0.03) as predictors of weaning off PN.

Conclusion

These predictors may help us select the optimal treatments for pediatric patients with SBS.

     

Prognostic factors predicting successful response to sildenafil after radical cystoprostatectomy

OBJECTIVES: To assess the efficacy and safety of sildenafil citrate in the management of erectile dysfunction (ED) following radical cystectomy (RC) and to define the different prognostic factors predicting the response to sildenafil in such a challenging group of patients. MATERIAL AND METHODS: One hundred patients with ED following RC participated in an open-label, non-randomized, prospective, dose-escalation study. The median age of the patients was 53 years and the mean period after RC was 80.7 +/- 54.8 months. The study duration was 12 weeks, comprising a 4-week run-in period followed by two active treatment periods of 4 weeks each with 50 and 100 mg of sildenafil. Patients were assessed by means of the International Index of Erectile Function (IIEF) questionnaire at baseline and after each treatment period. At the end of the study, the Global Efficacy Assessment Question was used to evaluate treatment satisfaction. Factors affecting the patient's response to sildenafil were assessed by means of uni- and multivariate analysis. RESULTS: The entire study group was suffering from severe ED at baseline, with a mean erectile function (EF) domain score of 6.5 +/- 0.93. EF scores improved to 12.2 +/- 7.76 and 18 +/- 10.3 with 50 and 100 mg of sildenafil, respectively. Sildenafil therapy significantly improved the ability of many patients to achieve and maintain an erection. The mean scores for question 3 of the IIEF were 1 +/- 0.14, 2.1 +/- 1.4 and 3 +/- 1.8 at baseline and with 50 and 100 mg of sildenafil, respectively, while the corresponding scores for question 4 were 1 +/- 0.10, 1.9 +/- 1.35 and 3 +/- 1.85. The satisfaction rate was 54%. The response was dose-dependent but the incidence of adverse effects increased from 6% with 50 mg of sildenafil to 34% with 100 mg. In univariate analysis, tumor histology and grade and postoperative partial tumescence were found to significantly impact the patient's response to sildenafil. In multivariate analysis, postoperative partial tumescence was the only independent predictive variable. CONCLUSIONS. Sildenafil was found to be a safe and satisfactory treatment for post-RC ED. The effect was dose-related. Patients with postoperative partial tumescence were the best responders.     

Factors predicting outcome in whiplash injury: a systematic meta-review of prognostic factors

Background

Whiplash injuries are among the leading injuries related to car crashes and it is important to determine the prognostic factors that predict the outcome of patients with these injuries. This meta-review aims to identify factors that are associated with outcome after acute whiplash injury.

Materials and methods

A systematic search for all systematic reviews on outcome prediction of acute whiplash injury was conducted across several electronic databases. The search was limited to publications in English, and there were no geographical or time of publication restrictions. Quality appraisal was conducted with A Measurement Tool to Assess Systematic Reviews.

Results

The initial search yielded 207 abstracts; of these, 195 were subsequently excluded by topic or method. Twelve systematic reviews with moderate quality were subsequently included in the analysis. Post-injury pain and disability, whiplash grades, cold hyperalgesia, post-injury anxiety, catastrophizing, compensation and legal factors, and early healthcare use were associated with continuation of pain and disability in patients with whiplash injury. Post-injury magnetic resonance imaging or radiographic findings, motor dysfunctions, or factors related to the collision were not associated with continuation of pain and disability in patients with whiplash injury. Evidence on demographic and three psychological factors and prior pain was conflicting, and there is a shortage of evidence related to the significance of genetic factors.

Conclusions

This meta-review suggests an association between initial pain and anxiety and the outcome of acute whiplash injury, and less evidence for an association with physical factors.

Level of evidence

Level 1.

     

Predicting nutritional outcome after extensive small bowel resection

Introduction:  Extensive small bowel resection often results in the need for long-term nutritional support. This study aimed to assess the factors affecting long term nutritional outcome following extensive small bowel resection.
Method:  Patients who underwent extreme small bowel resection were assessed. Indication for small bowel resection, length of remaining small bowel, presence of ileocaecal valve, colonic resection and long term total parental nutritional (TPN) requirements were recorded.
Results:  There were 24 patients of age range 28–79 (median 49 years). Fourteen were male. Indications for small bowel resection included Inflammatory bowel disease ( n  = 13) Mesenteric ischemia ( n  = 8) and miscellaneous ( n  = 3). Patients were divided into three groups:
Conclusion:  Small bowel resection leaving <100 cm of small bowel is associated with a 70% chance of needing long-term TPN. Presence of ileocaecal valve and/or some colon reduces the risk of long term TPN.