胃癌患者预后相关影响因素的列线图模型构建及验证

背景与目的 中国胃癌疾病负担较重且预后影响因素较多,有关量化和综合评估预后风险的研究较少。因此,本研究基于列线图探究炎症指标中性粒细胞/淋巴细胞比率（NLR）和血小板/淋巴细胞比率（PLR）对胃癌患者预后生存的意义,并将其纳入列线图与传统TNM分期进行预后评估效能比较。方法 回顾性纳入2013年6月—2018年6月在中国科学技术大学第一附属医院胃肠外科接受胃癌根治切除术的胃癌患者作为训练组（n=300）,同时从胃肠外科另一病区纳入接受相同手术处理的胃癌患者作为验证组（n=100）。通过医院电子病历系统采集患者的年龄、性别、肿瘤类型、肿瘤部位、侵袭深度和淋巴结转移（LNM）等信息;术前3 d收集外周静脉血数据,并计算NLR和PLR,通过ROC曲线确定NLR（1.98）和PLR（134.87）的最佳临界点。术后2年内每3个月随访1次,2年后每6个月随访1次。采用Cox比例风险模型计算暴露与结局指标的关联,根据多因素分析结果识别影响胃癌预后的独立风险因素,纳入列线图后通过C-指数在训练组和验证组评估列线图的稳定性。最后,基于ROC曲线下面积（AUC）比较列线图和传统TNM分期的预测效能。结果 训练组男性患者220例（73.3%）,验证组男性患者69例（69.0%）,训练组平均年龄（62.52±10.61）岁,验证组平均年龄（63.67±10.21）岁。两组除肿瘤类型、分化程度和侵袭深度外,其他基线特征差异无统计学意义;训练组中位生存时间（OS）为28个月,1、3、5年OS率分别为63.5%、43.0%和35.1%;验证组中位OS为32个月,1、3、5年OS率分别为58.9%、41.6%和31.7%。单因素Cox回归分析显示,年龄、病理分型、肿瘤分化程度、侵袭深度、存在LNM、NLR、PLR和CEA水平均与OS有关（均P<0.05）。经过多因素调整后,存在LNM、术前NLR>1.98、PLR>134.87和癌胚抗原（CEA）≥5 μg/L的患者OS显著缩短（均P<0.01）。校准曲线结果显示列线图模型在训练组（C-指数=0.81）和验证组（C-指数=0.75）的拟合度良好。此外,列线图模型预测训练组1、3、5年OS率的AUC值（0.865,0.855,0.827）高于TNM分期（0.677,0.690,0.683）;验证组1、3、5年OS率的AUC值（0.856,0.788,0.725）高于TNM分期（0.781,0.691,0.605）。结论 NLR和PLR是预测胃癌患者术后生存的独立风险因素,基于两者构建的列线图可以较为准确地预测行胃切除术胃癌患者的1、3、5年OS率,为临床医师提供更精确的治疗、护理决策证据。     

预测T4a期胃癌腹膜转移危险因素的列线图模型的建立与验证

目的探究T_4a期胃癌发生腹膜转移的危险因素,以此为训练组构建列线图模型,并进行内验证及外验证。 方法回顾性分析2011年1月至2017年12月394例行胃切除术+D2淋巴结清扫术影像学诊断为T_4a期胃癌患者的临床资料,其中将2011年1月至2015年12月224例患者作为训练集,2016年1月至2017年12月170例患者作为验证集。根据术前影像学表现判断有无腹膜转移并且最终经病理资料证实,采用SPSS 24.0软件通过t检验、秩和检验或卡方检验对发生腹膜转移的危险因素进行统计学分析,经单因素和多因素Logistic回归筛选T_4a期胃癌患者发生腹膜转移的潜在危险因素,采用R软件（版本4.0.2）建立列线图模型。采用Bootstrap法进行内验证,采用ROC曲线评价模型的符合度并计算95%CI,绘制校准曲线评价模型的符合度。绘制DCA曲线评价模型的临床获益度。 结果224例训练集患者中,共37（16.5%）例患者发生腹膜转移,验证集患者中23（13.5%）例患者发生腹膜转移,多因素分析显示糖类抗原125（CA125）、腹水、术前白蛋白（ALB）和肿瘤分化程度是胃癌患者发生腹膜转移的独立危险因素。绘制ROC曲线结果提示,内部训练集AUC曲线下面积为0.783（95%CI：0.699-0.867）,外部验证集AUC曲线下面积为0.848（95%CI：0.763-0.932）;且以此建立的列线图模型具有良好的区分度、校准度和临床获益度。 结论基于4个独立危险因素的列线图模型对T_4a期胃癌患者腹膜转移的发生具有良好的区分度和校准度,可用于术前对T_4a期胃癌患者腹膜转移风险进行评估,具有一定的临床推广和参考价值。     

血液透析和腹膜透析患者生存比较

目的 比较血液透析和腹膜透析患者的生存情况,探讨影响透析患者生存的主要危险因素。 方法 研究对象为2005年1月1日至2008年12月31日期间新进入透析且年龄≥18岁患者,随访至2009年3月31日。应用Kaplan-Meier法、log-rank检验及Cox回归模型分析患者的生存资料。 结果 共460例透析患者入选,其中247例起始采用血透治疗,213例起始采用腹透治疗。两组患者的基线资料,包括开始透析年龄、体质量指数（BMI）、估算肾小球滤过率（eGFR）、平均动脉压、进入透析治疗前心脑血管事件、Charlson并发症指数（CCI）等的差异均无统计学意义。中位随访时间为17.9（0.25,51）个月。意向治疗分析结果中,Kaplan-Meier生存曲线显示血透总体生存率优于腹透（P ＜ 0.05,log-rank检验）;透析1年内两组生存率差异无统计学意义（P = 0.14）,而透析1年后腹透患者的生存率显著低于血透患者（P ＜ 0.05）。亚组分析结果显示,≥65岁的非糖尿病肾病血透组生存率显著高于腹透组（P ＜ 0.05）。Cox回归分析显示,经混杂因素调整后,两种透析方式本身对透析生存无明显影响（HR,HD：PD = 0.778,95%CI 0.483~1.254,P = 0.303）;而年龄（HR = 1.051,95%CI 1.030~1.073,P ＜ 0.01）、透前有脑血管意外史（HR = 2.032,95%CI 1.125~3.670,P ＜ 0.05）、透前CCI≥5（HR=2.592,95%CI 1.230~5.465,P ＜ 0.05）、前白蛋白（HR = 0.022,95%CI 0.001~0.768,P ＜ 0.05）为透析患者生存率的主要影响因素。 结论 透析龄≤1年的血透和腹透生存率无显著差异;透析龄>1年的血透患者生存率可能逐渐高于腹透患者。老年非糖尿病患者血透生存率可能高于腹透。年龄、透前脑血管意外史、透前CCI≥5为影响透析生存率的主要危险因素。     

Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting survival of advanced breast cancer patients in China

BackgroundThere is a lack of prognostic models predicting the overall survival (OS) of advanced breast cancer (ABC) patients in China.MethodsData from the China National Cancer Center database that recorded 4039 patients diagnosed with breast cancer between 1987 and 2019 were extracted and a total of 2263 ABC participants were enrolled in this study, which were further randomized 3:1 and divided into training (n = 1706) and validation (n = 557) groups. The nomogram was built based on independent predictors identified by univariate and multivariate cox regression analyses. The discriminatory and predictive capacities of the nomogram were assessed by Harrell’s concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots.ResultsUnivariate and multivariate analyses found that age, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) score, T-stage, N-stage, tumor subtype, the presence of distant lymph node (DLN)/liver/brain metastasis, local therapy, efficacy of first-line therapy and metastatic-free interval (MFI) were significantly related to OS (all P < 0.05). These variables were incorporated into a nomogram to predict the 2-year and 3-year OS of ABC patients. The C-indexes of the nomogram were 0.700 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.683–0.717) for the training set and 0.686 (95% CI: 0.652–0.719) for the validation set. The calibration curves revealed satisfactory consistency between actual survival and nomogram prediction in both the internal and external validations. The nomogram was capable of stratifying patients into different risk cohorts.ConclusionsWe constructed and validated a nomogram that might serve as an efficient tool to provide prognostic prediction for ABC patients and guide the physicians to make personalized treatment decisions.     

肝内胆管细胞癌预后影响因素分析及生存列线图建立

目的探讨肝内胆管细胞癌(ICC)切除术后预后相关影响因素及建立有效的列线图生存预测模型。方法回顾性分析2010年1月—2018年12月在西安交通大学第一附属医院行手术切除的160例ICC患者的临床病理资料,其中男性89例,女性71例;年龄(57.41±10.35)岁,年龄范围29~81岁。观察指标:(1)患者随访的结果,术后生存情况;(2)影响患者术后预后的单因素及多因素分析;(3)列线图模型的建立及验证。采用门诊和电话方式进行常规随访,术后1年内每3个月复查肝功能、CA19-9、上腹部B超、CT或MRI检查。随后每3~6个月随访1次。观察终点为术后总体生存时间,即为手术日期到随访截止日期,或因肿瘤复发及转移致死亡的日期。随访截至2019年8月1日。将患者临床病理资料纳入预后影响因素分析,单因素分析采用Kaplan-Meier法和Log-rank检验,多因素分析采用Cox比例风险回归模型。基于Cox比例风险回归模型筛选的独立危险因素建立列线图生存预测模型。将160例患者按7∶3的比例分为模型组(n=112)及验证组(n=48),模型组用于生存列线图的建立,验证组用于其预测能力的评估,通过一致性指数(C-index)评估列线图模型对ICC患者术后生存预测的准确性。正态分布的计量资料以均数±标准差(Mean±SD)表示,偏态分布的计量资料以M(范围)表示。计数资料用例数和百分比(%)表示。结果160例ICC术后患者,随访期间死亡100例,死亡原因均为肿瘤复发转移致多器官功能衰竭,存活60例,生存时间20个月(2~111个月),1、3、5年总体生存率分别为63.3%、30.0%、19.6%。单因素分析结果显示,CA19-9、肝内胆管结石、肿瘤数目、肝脏切除范围、肿瘤分化程度、肿瘤细胞类型、肿瘤直径、脉管侵犯、TNM分期、淋巴结转移、卫星灶及切缘状态是ICC患者的预后影响因素(HR=1.78,1.97,2.91,1.89,3.06,2.86,2.07,1.94,2.24,1.95,2.68,2.00,95%CI:1.12~2.85,1.22~3.16,1.85~4.56,1.26~2.85,1.38~6.82,1.31~6.25,1.37~3.14,1.07~3.51,1.24~4.06,1.26~3.01,1.28~5.60,1.11~3.59,P<0.05)。多因素分析结果显示,肝内胆管结石、肿瘤数目、肝脏切除范围、肿瘤分化程度(低分化)及肿瘤细胞类型是影响ICC患者预后的独立危险因素(HR=2.47,2.37,2.06,5.52,5.72,95%CI:1.39~4.38,1.44~3.91,1.25~3.40,1.24~24.49,2.31~14.17,P<0.05)。列线图的建立基于5个独立危险因素,模型组的列线图预测术后生存的C-index值为0.71(95%CI:0.64~0.79),验证组C-index值为0.71(95%CI:0.61~0.81)。结论基于肝内胆管结石、肿瘤数目、肝脏切除范围、肿瘤分化程度和肿瘤细胞类型等影响ICC患者术后生存的独立危险因素构建的列线图生存预测模型具有较好的准确度。     

Long-term survival analysis of the elderly peritoneal dialysis patients

Objective To analyze the clinical data of the elderly peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients in Peking Union Medical College Hospital (PUMCH), and to find the risk factors for the long-term survival. Methods Baseline data and the outcome of maintenance PD patients from 1996-03 to 2015-09-30 were collected for a retrospective cohort study. Patients were divided into the non-elderly group (＜65 years old), the 65-79 years old group and the ≥80 years old group, and were follow to 2016-09-30. The survival rate was calculated by Kaplan-Meier method and the risk factors of outcome were analyzed by the Cox's regression model. Results Among 577 PD patients, about 243(42.1%) were elderly patients, including 207 patients aged between 65 and 79 years (35.9%) and 36 patients aged 80 or more (6.2%). The most common primary disease causing PD was diabetic nephropathy (DN) for both elderly and non-elderly patients. The 1-year, 3-year, 5-year survival rate of patients aged between 65 and 79 years were 87.0%, 61.9%, 32.4% respectively, and 72.5%, 48.5%, 27.3% for the ≥80 years old group. The dominating reasons of death were cardiovascular events and infection. There was no difference of technical survival rates among three groups, and the most common reason for technical failure was peritonitis. For elderly patients, diabetes (HR=2.193, 95%CI 1.445-3.328, P＜0.001) and lower baseline serum albumin (HR=0.968, 95%CI 0.940-0.996, P=0.026) were independent risk factors for death. However, for non-elderly patients, diabetes (HR=3.746, 95%CI 2.149-6.529, P＜0.001) was the only independent risk factor for death. Conclusions Cardiovascular diseases and infection are the main reasons for death among the elderly PD patients in PUMCH. Diabetes and lower baseline serum albumin may predict the mortality of elderly PD patients independently. Better management of nutrition might improve survival in elderly PD patients.     

慢性肾衰竭腹膜透析患者的预后分析

目的分析慢性肾衰竭腹膜透析患者的生存率及预后影响因素。方法回顾性调查2003年1月至2011年6月在我院规律随访的353例腹膜透析患者,总结患者的预后和退出原因,比较死亡患者与继续腹膜透析患者临床指标差异,分析患者死亡的危险因素和独立危险因素。结果353例患者中退出159例,其中死亡74例,死亡原因主要是心血管疾病。腹膜透析患者1年、2年、3年、4年的生存率分别为92％、80％、68％、58％。Logistic回归分析显示,年龄、糖尿病肾病、血红蛋白、血白蛋白和血肌酐是患者死亡的危险因素。COX回归分析显示,年龄、血红蛋白和血肌酐是死亡的独立危险因素（均P〈0．05）。结论根据年龄、血红蛋白和血肌酐水平可以对腹膜透析患者预后做初步判断,重视患者的营养状况,有利于改善预后、降低死亡率。     

Association between metabolic syndrome and prognosis in patients with peritoneal dialysis

Objective To investigate the incidence situation of metabolic syndrome (MS) in patients with continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD), and analyze the correlation between MS and prognosis of patients. Methods The patients who received peritoneal dialysis from June 1, 2002 to April 30, 2018 and followed up regularly were divided into MS group and non-MS group according to the diagnostic criteria of MS. Follow-up was until July 31, 2018. The differences of clinical data, metabolic indexes and clinical outcomes between the two groups were compared. The survival rates of the two groups were compared by Kaplan-Meier survival curve, and the risk factors of all-cause death and cardiovascular disease (CVD) death were analyzed by Cox regression analysis. Results A total of 516 patients with CAPD were enrolled in this study, including 340 males (65.9%) and 176 females (34.1%). Their age was (47.29±12.20) years. The median follow-up time was 20 (9, 39) months. According to the diagnostic criteria of MS, the patients were divided into MS group (210 cases, 40.7%) and non-MS group (306 cases, 59.3%). At baseline, there was no significant difference in age, educational background, duration of peritoneal dialysis, smoking history and drinking history between the two groups (P＞0.05), but the patients in MS group were more exposed to high glucose peritoneal dialysate (P＜0.05). The body mass index (BMI), blood phosphorus, blood glucose, blood potassium, triglyceride, cholesterol and systolic blood pressure in MS group were significantly higher than those in non-MS group (all P＜0.05), and HDL-C level was significantly lower in MS group than in non-MS group (P＜0.05). There were no significant differences in other indicators between the two groups (P＞0.05). Kaplan-Meier survival curve showed that the cumulative survival rate in MS group was significantly lower than that in non-MS group, and the difference was statistically significant (Log-rank χ2=14.87, P＜0.001). If CVD death was taken as the end event, the cumulative survival rate in the non-MS group was significantly higher than that in the MS group (Log-rank χ2=14.49, P＜0.001). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that MS and high 4 h dialysate creatinine/serum creatinine ratio (4hD/Pcr) were independent risk factor for all-cause death (HR=1.982, 95%CI 1.240-3.168, P=0.004; HR=3.855, 95%CI 1.306-11.381, P=0.015) and CVD death (HR=2.499, 95%CI 1.444-4.324, P=0.001; HR=5.799, 95%CI 1.658-20.278, P=0.006) in patients with CAPD. Conclusion The prevalence of MS in patients with CAPD is high, and MS and high 4hD/Pcr are independent risk factor for all-cause and CVD death in CAPD patients. They can be used as valuable indicators to predict the treatment outcomes and long-term prognosis of patients with CAPD.     

Effects of timing of dialysis initiation on the prognosis of peritoneal dialysis patients: a retrospective cohort study

Objective To analyze the effects of dialysis therapy initiation on the prognosis of peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients. Methods PD patients who were newly catheterization and long-term followed-up in Peking University Shenzhen Hospital from January 1, 2012 to March 25, 2019 were retrospectively analyzed. According to the estimate glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) at the time of patients catheterization, the patients were divided into early-dialysis group [eGFR＞5.5 ml?min-1?(1.73 m2)-1] and late-dialysis group [eGFR≤5.5 ml?min-1?(1.73 m2)-1]. The endpoint events were transferred to other renal replacement therapy (such as hemodialysis, kidney transplantation) or death. Kaplan-Meier method was used to draw survival curve, and log-rank test was used to compare the difference of survival rate between the two groups. Cox proportional hazard model was used to analyze the influencing factors of all-cause death and technical death in PD patients. Results A total of 342 PD patients were enrolled in this study, and there were 165 cases and 177 cases in the early-dialysis and the late-dialysis group respectively. Compared with the early-dialysis group, the proportion of patients with diabetes and men, and the level of hemoglobin, serum calcium and CO2 binding capacity in the late-dialysis group were lower, while the incidence of hypertension, serum phosphorus, blood uric acid and blood urea nitrogen level were higher in the late-dialysis group (all P＜0.05). The median follow-up time was 33(16, 57) months. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that the cumulative survival rate of late-dialysis group was significantly higher than that of early-dialysis group (Log-rank χ2=12.004, P＜0.001). After adjusting for gender, age of catheterization, body mass index (BMI), diabetes mellitus and hypertension, the risk ratio of all-cause death in the early-dialysis group was 1.950 times higher than that in the late-dialysis group (HR=1.950, 95%CI 1.019-3.730, P=0.044). Subgroup analysis showed that the timing of dialysis and the risk of end-point events were not affected by BMI, diabetes stratification and other factors (interactive P＞0.05), but there was interaction between dialysis time and catheter age (interactive P＜0.05). According to the age of catheterization, the risk of all-cause death were higher in the early dialysis group at a young age (≤48 years old) (HR=21.287, 95%CI 2.609-173.665, P=0.004). Conclusions The mortality rate of PD patients is higher in early-dialysis group, which is independent of gender, age, BMI, diabetes and hypertension. The difference is more distinct in low age group.     

Impacts of baseline peritoneal transport characteristics and their changes during follow up on the survival of peritoneal dialysis patients

Objective To evaluate the effects of baseline and changes of peritoneal transport characteristics on the prognosis of maintaining peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients. Methods Five hundred and eight-six PD patients who started PD from September 11, 2006 to October 30, 2014 in a single center were included and followed up until March 30, 2016. According to their baseline D/Pcr value in peritoneal equilibrium test (PET), the patients were divided into high transport (H) group (D/Pcr 0.82-1.03), high average transport (HA) group (D/Pcr 0.65-0.81), low average transport (LA) group (D/Pcr 0.50-0.64) and low transport (L) group (D/Pcr 0.34-0.49). According to the changes of follow-up D/Pcr comparing with baseline D/Pcr, the patients were also divided into ascending group, descending group and no-change group. The patient and technical survival rates were estimated by Kaplan-Meier analysis. Cox proportional hazards analyses were used to analyze the risk factors for PD patient death and technical failure. Results There were 67 patients in L group, 229 patients in LA group, 252 patients in HA group, and 38 patients in H group. The patient survival rate in H group was significantly lower than those of L group (P=0.036), LA group (P=0.008) and HA group (P=0.041). There was no significant difference on technical survival rate among these 4 groups. According to the tendency of follow-up D/Pcr changes, there were 127 patients in ascending group, 101 patients in descending group and 179 patients in no-change group. There was no significant difference on patient survival among these 3 groups (P=0.064). However in patients with a high transport rate (D/Pcr≥0.65), the patient survival was lower in descending group than those in ascending group (P=0.033) and no-change group (P=0.049). Age over 65 years old (HR=2.499), malnutrition during follow-up (HR=3.144), ultrafiltration less than 400 ml/d during follow-up (HR=1.863) and high sensitive C reactive protein≥10 mg/L (HR=4.526) were the independent risk factors for patient death (all P＜0.05). Gender (HR= 1.609), age over 65 years old (HR=1.929), ultrafiltration less than 400 ml/d during follow-up (HR=1.708), high sensitive C reactive protein≥10 mg/L (HR=1.829), malnutrition (HR=1.876) and change of peritoneal transport function (HR=0.579) affect technical failure (all P＜0.05). Conclusions The survival rate of PD patients with basal high peritoneal transit is relatively low, especially for patients with descending transport rate during follow-up. The concern on the peritoneal transport status is constructive for the prognosis of PD patients.     

Fatigue in chronic peritoneal dialysis patients

Fatigue is a common complaint in long termdialysis patients that may influence theirquality of life. The present study was carriedout in order to evaluate the prevalence andcourse of fatigue in a group of chronic PDpatients and to find the possible factor(s)related to its development. We retrospectivelyreviewed 100 charts of the patients previouslyon PD. The presence or absence of fatigue inthe 1st and last clinic visits and the 1st and2nd changes in fatigue state were studiedaccording to the monthly clinical records ofthe primary nurses. Data regarding dialysatevolume, urine volume, weekly erythropoietin(EPO) dose, hemoglobin, hematocrit, blood urea,serum creatinine, residual renal creatinine andurea clearances, dialysate to peritonealcreatinine ratio (D/P Cr), total weekly Kt/Vand total creatinine clearance/l.73 m² bodysurface area (TCrCl) were collected. Fifty-fivepatients were male and 45 female. The mean ageat the 1st clinic visit was 61.3 ± 16 years.At the 1st visit 55 patients had fatigue and 45did not. In 32 of the 55 patients fatiguedisappeared after a mean duration of 7.9 ± 8.4months and in 31 of the 45 patients fatigueappeared after a mean duration of 8 ± 6.8months. So at the last visit the frequency offatigue increased significantly from 55% to67% (p < 0.001). In patients with fatigue themean age and female percentage were higher(64.2 ± 14.1 vs 57.8 ± 17.6, p = 0.05 and 1.2vs 0.5, p < 0.05 respectively), mean hemoglobinconcentration was lower (104.4 ± 14.7 vs110.6 ± 14.2 g/L, p < 0.04) and mean EPO dosewas higher (6379.6 ± 7142 vs 3395.4 ± 4337.8units/week, p < 0.02) at the 1st clinic visit.EPO dose was also higher in patients withfatigue at the last visit (8253.7 ± 10317.3units/wk vs 4736.4 ± 5432.5, p < 0.03). Nocorrelation was found between dialysis adequacyaccording to either weekly Kt/V or TCrCl andnutritional state according to nPCR andfrequency of fatigue. We conclude that fatigueis a common symptom in PD patients and it'sprevalence increases over time. Anemia seemsto be the most important factor associated withfatigue. Dialysis adequacy and nutritionalstate did not show any correlation with thefrequency of fatigue in our study.     

黄芪改善腹透患者腹腔巨噬细胞功能的临床研究

目的：研究黄芪对尿毒症患腹腔巨噬细胞功能的影响。方法：对43例尿毒症初始行腹膜透析的患在腹透液中不加（对照组）和加入黄芪注射液（用药组）治疗1周,用ELISA法检测观察前后腹腔巨噬细胞分泌TNF－a能力和吞噬功能的变化。结果：黄芪用药组腹腔巨噬细胞吞菌率、吞噬指数、杀菌率和巨噬细胞分泌TNF－a水平和对照组相比均明显上升（P＜0．01）,巨噬细胞分泌TNF－a水平与用药前自身对比也显提高（P＜0．05）。结论：腹透液中加入黄芪注射液可提高腹透患腹腔巨噬细胞功能。     

改良腹膜平衡试验在腹膜透析患者中的应用

目的 观察改良腹膜平衡试验(改良PET)在腹膜透析(腹透)患者中的应用,初 步建立改良PET转运参数的参考值,探讨其评估腹膜溶质转运特性的准确性及临床意义。方法 97例腹透患者用高渗腹透液(4．25％葡萄糖)进行改良PET,分别测定4 h透析液肌酐与血肌酐 比值(4h D／Pcr)、计算物质转运面积系数(MTAC)、1 h透析液钠与血钠比值(1h D／PNa+)及记录 净超率量(nUF)。其中有14例患者在1个月内曾行标准腹膜平衡试验(标准PET),其结果与改 良PET进行自身比较。所有患者在研究时及研究前1个月内均无腹膜炎。结果 97例腹透患 者中有90例nUF大于400 ml,这些患者的转运参数经正态分布校正后建立了改良PET的参考 值。改良PET的4 hD／Pcr为0．70±0．15,标准PET4 hD／Pcr为0．68±0．13,两者非常接近,差异 无统计学意义。两种PET对患者腹膜转运特性分型结果相似。7例nUF小于400 ml的患者中有 5例有效腹膜表面积增大;2例存在水通道介导的水转运障碍,其中1例同时存在有效腹膜表面 积增大,还有1例患者改良PET转运参数在正常范围内。结论 与标准PET相比,用高渗腹透 液进行改良PET能够准确地评估腹膜小分子溶质转运特性,此外还能提供更多更敏感的液体转 运信息,为临床诊断超滤衰竭,以及进一步鉴别其原因提供了有力的手段。     

Efficacy and prognosis of peritoneal dialysis in patients with end-stage polycystic kidney disease

Objective To analyze the therapeutic effect and prognosis of peritoneal dialysis in patients with end-stage polycystic kidney disease. Methods A retrospective analysis was performed on patients with polycystic kidney disease who were treated with peritoneal dialysis for more than 3 months between July 2007 and September 2016 in the Second Hospital Affiliated to Soochow University. A total of 45 patients were enrolled in this study. Another 45 patients of non-diabetic nephropathy were selected as the control group matched by gender, age, and time of PD initiation. The information of the two groups such as general data, dialysis related complications, incidence of peritonitis, prognosis was recorded. Survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method and Log-rank test．The risk factors affecting patients' survival were analyzed with Cox regression model. Results There were no significant difference in pre-dialysis age, sex ratio, blood pressure, urine volume, body weight, eGFR, biochemical data, and the proportion of hypertension and diabetes mellitus in the polycystic kidney group and control group. 24 h ultra-filtration volume, 4 h D/Pcr, Kt/V and Ccr between the two groups showed no significant difference (all P＞0.05). The incidence of peritonitis and the time of the first peritonitis in the two groups respectively as one episode per 82.4 months vs one episode per 81.5 months, (35.8±22.8) months vs (34.5±20.9) months had no statistical difference. The ratio of hernia (6.6% vs 2.2%), thoracic and abdominal leakage (4.4% vs 2.2%), dialysate leakage (0 vs 0), catheter dysfunction (4.4% vs 6.6%), exit-site infections (11.1% vs 6.6%), tunnel infections (4.4% vs 2.2%) and non PD related infections (11.1% vs 13.3%) had no significant difference. The 1-year, 3-year, 5-year patient survival of two groups respectively were 95.2% vs 93.3%, 78.9% vs 75.0%, 67.6% vs 64.9% (P=0.475), and 5-year technique survival was 78.7% vs 76.7% (P=0.623), demonstrating no obvious difference. Cox regression analysis showed that age and serum albumin were risk factors for the survival of patients. Conclusions The effect and prognosis of peritoneal dialysis in patients with polycystic kidney and non polycystic kidney were similar. Peritoneal dialysis is not the contraindication of polycystic kidney. Peritoneal dialysis can be used as a routine renal replacement therapy in patients with polycystic kidney disease.     

术前炎性指标构建的列线图模型预测结直肠癌患者术后生存分析

目的探讨基于术前炎性指标构建的列线图模型预测结直肠癌患者术后生存的价值。方法采用队列研究设计,选取2011年1月至2014年6月空军第986医院行结直肠癌根治术的233例结直肠癌患者,根据5年随访结果,将患者分成生存组(99例)和死亡组(134例)。比较两组患者术前1 d炎性指标水平,单因素和Cox回归分析结直肠癌患者术后5年生存的影响因素,应用R软件建立列线图术后存活预测模型。结果两组患者术前淋巴细胞计数、中性粒细胞计数、血小板计数、C反应蛋白、血小板/淋巴细胞比值(PLR)、中性粒细胞/淋巴细胞(NLR)和C反应蛋白/白蛋白比值(CAR)等指标比较,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05),而白细胞计数和白蛋白比较,差异无统计学意义;肿瘤大小(OR=1.379,95%CI:1.094~1.737)、浸润深度(OR=2.020,95%CI:1.126~3.622)、NLR(OR=1.496,95%CI:1.009~2.219)、PLR(OR=1.927,95%CI:1.060~3.504)和CAR(OR=2.326,95%CI:1.479~3.657)是结直肠癌患者术后生存的独立影响因素(P<0.05)。列线图预测术后生存模型的C-index为0.831(95%CI:0.781~0.911),校准预测曲线和理想曲线拟合良好。结论术前NLR、PLR和CAR与结直肠癌术后生存呈负相关,且列线图具有预测结直肠癌患者术后生存情况的潜在价值。     

腹膜透析患者的容量管理

容量超负荷是腹膜透析患者常见的临床问题,直接影响患者的预后和生活质量。对患者的容量进行规范管理,及时去除容量超负荷原因,尤其是可逆性因素,构建规范的评估流程,进行合理、准确的容量评估,可以有效减少容量超负荷的发生,以保证透析的充分性、提高腹膜透析患者生活质量和生存时间。     

Prognostic analysis of end-stage renal disease patients without diabetes mellitus receiving hemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis

Objective To compare the prognosis of hemodialysis (HD) and peritoneal dialysis (PD) in end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients without diabetes mellitus and identify related influencing factors. Methods Patients who started hemodialysis with an arteriovenous graft or fistula or PD in the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University from January 1, 2013 to February 1, 2019 were included. They were followed up until May 1, 2019. The patients were divided into HD group and PD group according to the initial dialysis modality. Kaplan-Meier method was used to obtain survival curves, the Cox regression model was used to evaluate influence factors for survival rates, and the inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) was used to eliminate influence of the confounders in the groups. Results There were 371 patients with maintenance dialysis enrolled in this study, including 113 cases (30.5%) in HD group and 258 cases (69.5%) in PD group. At baseline, the scores of standard mean difference (SMD) in age, body mass index (BMI), combined with cerebrovascular disease, Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), blood potassium, plasma albumin and hemoglobin between the two groups were greater than 0.1. The score of SMD decreased after IPTW, and the most data were less than 0.1, which meant that the balance had been reached between the two groups. The Kaplan-Meier survival curve showed that the cumulative survival rates had no significant difference for all-cause death before using IPTW between the two groups (Log-rank χ2=0.094, P=0.759). After adjusting for confounders with IPTW, the Kaplan-Meier survival curve showed that the cumulative survival rates still had no significant difference for all-cause death between the two groups (Log-rank χ2=2.090, P=0.150). Univariate Cox regression analysis showed that there was no significant difference between HD and PD on survival rates in ESRD patients without diabetes mellitus for all-cause death (PD/HD, HR=1.171, 95%CI 0.426-3.223, P=0.760). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that there was no significant difference between HD and PD on survival rates in ESRD patients without diabetes mellitus (PD/HD, HR=1.460, 95%CI 0.515-4.144, P=0.477), and high plasma albumin (HR=0.893, 95%CI 0.813-0.981, P=0.019) was an independent protective factor for survival in ESRD patients without diabetes mellitus. There was still no significant difference between HD and PD on survival rates in ESRD patients without diabetes mellitus after using IPTW (PD/HD, HR=1.842, 95%CI 0.514-6.604, P=0.348). Conclusion The difference of cumulative survival rates between HD and PD is not significant in ESRD patients without diabetes mellitus.     

Metabolic syndrome in peritoneal dialysis patients: choice of diagnostic criteria and prognosis

Objectives To investigate whether the presence of metabolic syndrome (MS) modifies overall survival and cardiovascular (CV) outcomes among patients undergoing long-term peritoneal dialysis (PD) and to explore suitable diagnostic criterion for PD patients. Methods A total of 258 patients on PD in Peking University Third Hospital between October 2008 and March 2009 were enrolled and followed until June 2017. According to the diagnostic criteria of WHO, IDF and ATP Ⅲ, the patients were divided into MS group and non-MS group. The median following time was 51.9 (26.8, 97.9) months. Overall survival and cardiovascular death were analyzed by the Kaplan-Meier method. The analyses were also done among non-diabetic PD patients. The influence of MS and its components on outcomes was analyzed by Cox regression models. Results Among 258 PD patients, 106(41.1%) fulfilled the WHO criteria, 121(46.9%) the IDF criteria, and 167(64.7%) the ATP criteria. 139 cases were dead, among which 50(36.0%) cases were caused by CV diseases. The patients with MS had worse outcomes than those without MS by WHO and IDF criteria (cumulative survival rates of WHO criteria: 21.3% vs 44.8%, P﹤0.01; cumulative surviva rats of IDF criteria: 23.3% vs 45.7%, P﹤0.01). It was the same even in non-diabetic PD patients. The patients with MS had more CV death than those without MS by WHO and IDF criteria (both P﹤0.05). Among non-diabetic PD patients, the results remained the same only by IDF criteria (P﹤0.05). By ATP criteria, above analyses showed no difference. By multivariate Cox regression analysis, MS and serum albumin (all P﹤0.01) were independently associated with increased risk for overall and cardiovascular survival. Among MS components, waist girth, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels and blood sugar (all P﹤0.01) were significant risk factors for adverse survival outcomes. Conclusions In patients undergoing PD, both overall survival and cardiovascular survival were worse in patients with MS than those without MS. Waist girth, blood sugar and serum LDL-C were the main risk factors. For PD patients the IDF criterion for MS was recommended.     

Effects of seasonal changes on peritoneal dialysis associated peritonitis in peritoneal dialysis patients

Objectives To investigate the effects of seasonal changes on peritoneal dialysis associated peritonitis (PDAP) in patients on peritoneal dialysis (PD), and to provide evidence for clinical prevention and treatment of PDAP. Methods All episodes of PD-related peritonitis during clinic follow-up in maintenance PD patients from Jan 1st, 2007 to Dec 31st, 2015 in Peking University People's Hospital were reviewed. The incidence of peritonitis, laboratory indexes, pathogens and clinical outcomes in different seasons were recorded and analyzed. One-way ANOVA and chi square test were employed to compare the incidence of PDAP and related data in different seasons, and Pearson correlation was used to analyze correlations between PDAP rate and monthly mean temperature and mean humidity. Results During nine years, a total of 119 PD patients occurred 190 times of peritonitis during home PD. The PDAP rate in summer was the highest, 0.21 episodes/year, followed by spring (0.16 episodes/year) and autumn (0.16 episodes/risk year), but there was no significant difference among peritonitis rates in four seasons. There were significant positive correlation between monthly mean temperature, monthly mean humidity and the peritonitis rate (mean temperature: r=0.828, P＜0.01; mean humidity r=0.657, P＜0.05). (2) As for bacteria, in Summer the PDAP rate caused by Staphylococcus aureus and Coagulase negative staphylococcus (CoNS), and Gram-negative bacteria was higher than that in other seasons, but there was no statistical difference. There were significant positive correlation between monthly mean temperature, mean humidity and the rate of CoNS peritonitis (mean temperature: r=0.704, P＜0.05; mean humidity: r=0.607, P＜0.05). (3) There were no statistical difference among results of PD related peritonitis in different seasons about general situation, clinical manifestation, causes of peritonitis and laboratory index before peritonitis episodes. PD procedure-related problems were the main cause of peritonitis in summer and autumn. (4) The cure rate of all peritonitis was 90%. The highest cure rate was in autumn and winter, while the lowest cure rate was in summer, but no statistical difference. Among the peritonitis episodes with treatment failure, 52.6% occurred in summer. Conclusions There is some correlation between the rate of PDAP and seasons. Higher temperature and higher humidity were significantly correlated with higher peritonitis rate, especially the rate of CoNS peritonitis. The prognosis of PDAP in summer was relatively poor, with higher proportion of hospitalization and lower cure rate.     

Hyperkalemia in chronic peritoneal dialysis patients

Background. Chronic peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients often develop hypokalemia but less commonly hyperkalemia.Methods. We explored incidence and mechanisms of hyperkalemia in 779 serum samples from 33 patients on PD for 1 − 59 months. Normal serum potassium concentration was defined as 3.5 − 5.1 meq/l.Results. Mean monthly serum potassium concentrations were normal (except for 1 month), but we observed hypokalemia (<3.5 meq/l) in 5% and hyperkalemia (>5.1 meq/l) in 14% of 779 serum samples. Incidence of hyperkalemia did not change over time on PD: Year 1 (15%), Year 2 (11%), Year 3 (19%), Years 4–5 (22%). Hyperkalemia was mostly modest but occasionally extreme [5.2–5.4 meq/l (55%), 5.5–5.7 meq/l (21%), 5.8–6.0 meq/l (10%), >6.0 meq/l (14%)]. Of 31 patients (2 excluded due to brief PD time), 39% displayed hyperkalemia only, 23% displayed hypokalemia only, and the remainder (38%) displayed both or neither. Comparing hypokalemia-only with hyperkalemia-only patients, we found no difference in potassium chloride therapy, medications interrupting the renin-angiotensin system, small-molecule transport status, and renal urea clearance. We compared biochemical parameters from the hypokalemic and hyperkalemic serum samples and observed lower bicarbonate concentrations, higher creatinine concentrations, and higher urea nitrogen concentrations in the hyperkalemic samples (p < 0.001 for each), without difference in glucose concentrations.Conclusion. We observed hyperkalemia 3 times as frequently as hypokalemia in our PD population. High-potassium diet, PD noncompliance, increased muscle mass, potassium shifts, and/or the daytime period without PD might contribute to hyperkalemia.