Development of a nomogram to predict the clinical impact of a postexcision preirradiation mammogram

We aimed to better quantify the impact of a postexcision preirradiation mammogram (PPM), first by identifying factors associated with abnormal results and then incorporating these findings into a nomogram. Beginning February 2011, our institution made a practice change to obtain a PPM on all patients with any calcifications identified. A total of 530 patients underwent a PPM. Suspicious abnormalities were reported in 61 patients (11.5%), with the PPM leading to a change in management in 47 instances (8.9%). A nomogram was created based on patient and tumor characteristics to identify patients most likely to have an abnormal PPM.     

基于SEER数据库混合细胞性肝癌病人预后列线图构建与验证

目的探讨混合细胞性肝癌(CHC)病人预后的危险因素,构建并验证列线图。方法回顾性收集监测、流行病学和最终结果数据库2004-2018年诊断为CHC 531例病人临床资料,随机分为训练集和验证集。使用Cox比例风险模型构建列线图,验证并比较列线图和第8版美国癌症联合委员会(AJCC)分期预测效能。结果肿瘤大小、治疗方式、远处转移、肿瘤分化和肝纤维化是CHC病人预后的独立危险因素(P<0.05)。列线图C-index在训练集和验证集中分别为0.777(95%CI 0.752-0.803)和0.734(95%CI 0.689-0.779),1、3、5年总生存率ROC曲线下面积(AUROC)在训练集和验证集中分别为0.845、0.873、0.854和0.790、0.871、0.871。与AJCC分期相比,列线图C-index和AUROC更高,赤池信息准则和贝叶斯信息准则更低。校准曲线显示列线图校准良好。临床决策曲线显示列线图比AJCC分期净收益更高。倾向性评分匹配后肝移植病人预后优于肝切除病人(5年总生存率:64.5%vs. 36.5%,P=0.010)。结论列线图能个体化预测CHC病人...     

In vitro effects of clomiphene citrate on sperm parameters and fertilisation rate in male NMRI mice

Clomiphene citrate (CC), as a medication in male infertility, improves the sperm parameters in oral consumption but various detrimental side effects have been reported including testicular tumours, gynaecomastia, skin allergic reactions and ocular symptoms. Therefore, this study was designed to evaluate the in vitro effects of CC on sperm parameters and fertilisation rate in IVF protocol. Sperm samples of NMRI adult mice were divided into six groups: group 1 received no treatment (control group), while groups of 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 (experimental groups) were incubated with the doses of 0.001, 0.01, 0.1, 1 and 10 µg/ml of CC in culture medium respectively. Sperm parameters (viability, morphology and motility), DNA fragmentation levels and fertilisation rate in IVF were evaluated. The results demonstrated that the doses of 0.1 µg/ml (p = .000007 for viability and p = .00006 for fertilisation rate) and 1 µg/ml (p = .032 for viability and p = .005 for fertilisation rate) CC cause a significant improvements; also, the dose of 0.1 µg/ml CC found effective on sperm motility (p = .0003). In the field of IVF, the application of 0.1 and 1 µg/ml of CC in the culture medium may improve the sperm parameters in IVF protocol with no side effects.     

Development and validation of a novel nomogram to predict overall survival of patients with moderate to severe chronic kidney disease

IntroductionThe risk of death significantly increased from stage 3 chronic kidney disease (CKD) onward. We aimed to construct a novel nomogram to predict the overall survival (OS) of patients afflicted with CKD from stage 3–5.MethodsA total of 882 patients with stage 3–5 CKD were enrolled from the NHANES 2001–2004 survey. Data sets from the 2003–2004 survey population were used to develop a nomogram that would predict the risk of OS. The 2001–2002 survey population was used to validate the nomogram. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) regression was conducted to screen the significant predictors relative to all-cause death. The multivariate Cox regression based on the screened factors was applied to effectively construct the nomogram. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated according to the C-index, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and the calibration curve with 1000 bootstraps resample. Kaplan–Meier’s curves were used for testing the discrimination of the prediction model.ResultsFive variables (age, urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR), potassium, cystatin C (Cys C), and homocysteine) were screened by the Lasso regression. The nomogram was constructed using these factors, as well as the CKD stage. The included factors (age, CKD stage, UACR, potassium, Cys C, and homocysteine) were all significantly related to the death of CKD patients, according to the multivariate Cox regression analysis. The internal validation showed that this nomogram demonstrates good discrimination and calibration (adjusted C-index: 0.70; AUC of 3-, 5-, and 10-year OS were 0.75, 0.78, and 0.77, respectively). External validation also demonstrated exceedingly similar results (C-index: 0.72, 95% CI: 0.69–0.76; AUC of 3-, 5-, and 10-year OS were 0.76, 0.79, and 0.80, respectively).ConclusionsThis study effectively constructed a novel nomogram that incorporates CKD stage, age, UACR, potassium, Cys C, and homocysteine, which can be conveniently used to facilitate the individualized prediction of survival probability in patients with stage 3–5 CKD. It displays valuable potential for clinical application.     

部分型圆头精子症患者精液常规参数及精子形态分析

目的:分析部分型圆头精子症患者精液常规参数及精子形态。方法:选取2013年1月至2016年5月100例部分型圆头精子症患者作为病例组,对照组为非圆头精子症的不育患者180例。根据精液中圆头精子所占比例不同将病例组分成5组:1组(25%~40%)、2组(41%~55%)、3组(56%~70%)、4组(71%~85%)、5组(86%~99%),根据WHO《人类精液检查与处理实验室手册》第5版标准对其进行精液常规分析,包括精子浓度、活动率、前向运动精子百分率,及对不同畸形精子进行计数并计算畸形精子指数(TZI)及精子畸形指数(SDI)。结果:病例组与对照组的精子活动率[(35.76±24.88)%vs(62.03±10.20)%]、前向运动精子百分率[(26.11±20.39)%vs(45.62±6.87)%]、正常形态精子百分率[(1.45±1.45)%vs(5.98±2.21)%]和SDI(1.33±0.11 vs1.27±0.57)相比差异均有统计学意义(P均0.01),两组年龄[(29.82±4.90)岁vs(30.33±3.59)岁]、精子浓度[(46.01±40.38)×10~6/ml vs(54.00±25.15)×10~6/ml]和TZI(1.35±0.11 vs 1.34±0.54)比较差异均无统计学意义(P均0.05);病例组各组精子活动率、前向运动精子百分率、正常形态精子百分率、TZI和SDI均有统计学差异(P均0.01),而年龄和精子浓度均无统计学差异(P均0.05)。随着圆头精子比例的升高,精子头部形态由异质性偏向于均一性。结论:精液中不同比例的圆头精子与精液常规参数和形态学指标密切相关,可对不育患者辅助生殖技术的选择和受精率的预测起一定的提示作用。     

Development and validation of an integrated nomogram to predict personalized new baseline functional outcomes after partial nephrectomy

BackgroundThe prediction of new baseline renal function after partial nephrectomy (PN) has important clinical implications. This study aimed to establish a precise personalized nomogram integrating pre-, intra- and post-operative variables to predict new baseline function after PN.MethodsThis nomogram was constructed based on 213 consecutive PN cases at a large-volume institution from 2014 to 2017 and externally validated by a prospective cohort from January to December 2018 at the same institution. Multivariate cox regression and logistic least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression were used to select predictors. The performance of the nomogram was assessed by the concordance index (C-index), calibration plot, decision curve analysis and Kaplan-Meier plot.ResultsThe average drop percent of the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was −8.6% (−12.3%, −7.2%). Multivariate Cox regression analysis and LASSO regression revealed that age, baseline eGFR, RENAL nephrometry score, ischemia time, and AKI were independent predictive factors. These five factors were subsequently incorporated to establish an integrated nomogram, with a C-index of 0.910, excellent calibration plot and net clinical benefit. An external validation of 67 patients showed a C-index of 0.801, excellent calibration and clinical net benefit.ConclusionsOur proposed nomogram based on pre-, intra- and post-operative outcomes accurately predicts personalized new baseline eGFR after PN. The successful personalized prediction of at-risk individuals at an early stage can provide multi-professional consideration and timely management.     

Effect of venous reflux time on testosterone and semen parameters of infertile males after microscopic varicocelectomy

This study aimed to search whether there is a link between reflux flow and hormonal profile. Data of 250 patients were retrospectively investigated. Pre-operative and 6th month semen analyses of these patients' results were compared with pre-operative and post-operative 6th month serum levels of testosterone. Based on the venous flow on pre-operative Doppler ultrasonography, patients were divided into two groups. Patients with a venous flow ≤4 s were assigned to Group 1 and those with a venous flow >4 s to Group 2. Venous reflux time cut-off was calculated as 4 s using ROC curve according to the increase in testosterone level. When venous reflux time was selected as approximately 4.0 s, ROC had 79.8% sensitivity and 72.8 specificity. The probability of a post-operative increase in testosterone is high in patients with a venous reflux time longer than 4 s.     

Influence of extended incubation time on Human sperm chromatin condensation,sperm DNA strand breaks and their effect on fertilisation rate

The purpose of this study was to determine influence of extended incubation time on sperm chromatin condensation and DNA strand breaks and their effect on fertilisation rate. Forty couples undergoing ICSI therapy were included. Semen was prepared by PureSperm gradient centrifugation and divided into two parts. The first part (G1) was used immediately for ICSI, whereas the second part (G2) was kept in the incubator at 37°C, 5% and 90% Humidity for 5 hr, and thereafter, the capacitated spermatozoa were used for ICSI. The TUNEL test and chromomycin CMA3 were used to evaluate the DNA strand breaks and chromatin condensation respectively. The percentage of condensed chromatin was 73.92 ± 12.70 in the group 1 and 81.13 ± 10.31% in group 2 (p = .001). However, the double‐strand breaks were 11.15 ± 8.67% in G.1 and 16.30 ± 11.12% in G.2. (p = .001). Fertilisation rate in the (Group 1) was 62.45% and 69.17% in (Group 2). There was a positive correlation between condensed chromatin and fertilisation rate (r = 0.846, p = .001) and a negative correlation with DNA double‐strand breaks (r = ?0.802; p = .001). In conclusion, the prolonged sperm incubation (5 hr) leads to a higher chromatin condensation and to a significantly increased number of DNA strands double breaks with no influence on fertilisation rates.     

Establishment and validation of a nomogram to predict the neck contracture after skin grafting in burn patients: A multicentre cohort study

Cervical burn contracture is one of the burn contractures with the highest incidence and severity, and there is no effective method to predict the risk of neck contracture. This study aimed to investigate the effect of combined cervicothoracic skin grafting on the risk of neck contracture in burn patients and to develop a nomogram to predict the risk of neck contracture after skin grafting in burn patients. Data from 212 patients with burns who underwent neck skin grafting were collected from three hospitals, and the patients were randomly divided into training and validation sets. Independent predictors were identified through univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses and incorporated into a prognostic nomogram. Its performance was assessed using the receiver operating characteristic area under the curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis. Burn depth, combined cervicothoracic skin grafting, graft thickness, and neck graft size were significantly associated with neck contractures. In the training cohort, the nomogram had an area under the curve of 0.894. The calibration curve and decision curve analysis indicated good clinical applicability of the nomogram. The results were tested using a validation dataset. Combined cervicothoracic skin grafting is an independent risk factor for neck contracture. Our nomogram demonstrated excellent performance in predicting neck contracture risk.     

Development and internal validation of a nomogram predicting extracapsular extension in radical prostatectomy specimens

Objectives: To present a nomogram predicting the side‐specific probability of extracapsular extension (ECE) in radical prostatectomy (RP) specimens. Methods: Three hundred and fifty‐four patients with T1c‐T3a prostate cancer undergoing RP were included in the analysis. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was carried out to evaluate the predictive values of each clinical and pathological factor, separately and in combination. Based on logistic regression analysis, a nomogram predicting the side‐specific probability of ECE was developed. Results: Overall, 146 (40%) of 354 patients and 165 (23%) of 708 lobes had ECE pathologically. The areas under the ROC curve (AUC) of the standard features, such as serum PSA, clinical stage and biopsy Gleason sum on each side, in predicting side‐specific probability of ECE were 0.624, 0.627, and 0.747, respectively. When these three features were combined, AUC increased to 0.773 which was not significantly different from 0.791 of maximum percent of cancer alone (P = 0.613) and significantly enhanced by including maximum percent of cancer on each side, 0.799 (P = 0.022). The resulting nomogram was internally validated and had excellent calibration. Conclusions: The accuracy in predicting ECE is increased by combining standard clinical factors (clinical stage, serum PSA, highest Gleason score) and biopsy features, such as maximum percent of cancer in the cores. The developed nomogram is helpful when deciding whether or not neurovascular bundles can be preserved.     

Human varicella zoster virus is not present in the semen of a man affected by chickenpox during the in vitro fertilisation of his wife

Human varicella zoster virus (VZV) is a member of the herpes virus family and affects humans only. Information about the presence of the virus in the semen samples of men affected by chickenpox is rather limited in the literature. Here, we reported a husband was affected by VZV during in vitro fertilisation treatment of his wife treated in our centre. The semen sample was checked for the presence of VZV by the PCR technique. The PCR result found no detectable viral DNA in the semen sample. The semen sample was then used for conventional IVF insemination and subsequently a healthy baby boy was born. This single case report suggests that the semen sample of men affected by chickenpox may be safe to use for assisted reproduction methods during the VZV infective period.     

Re‐calibration and external validation of an existing nomogram to predict aggressive recurrences after radical prostatectomy

Study Type – Prognosis (case series)
Level of Evidence 4

OBJECTIVE

To re‐calibrate the previously published Duke Prostate Center (DPC) nomogram for the prediction of biochemical recurrence (BCR) after radical prostatectomy (RP) to not only predict overall BCR but also the clinically more relevant endpoint of an aggressive recurrence (i.e. a BCR with a postoperative PSA doubling time (PSADT) of <9 months).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Using the established point‐scale system based upon the previously published DPC nomogram, we re‐calibrated this point system to predict not just BCR, but also aggressive BCR within 2599 men treated with RP from the DPC database. PSADT was computed on all patients meeting the recurrence definition who had a minimum of two PSA values, separated by at least 3 months, and ≤2 years after recurrence. External validation was performed using data from 1695 men treated with RP within the Shared Equal Access Regional Cancer Hospital (SEARCH) database by calculating the concordance index c and by plotting calibration curves.

RESULTS

The median follow‐up for patients with no BCR was 56 and 47 months for DPC and SEARCH, respectively. In the DPC modelling cohort and the SEARCH validation cohort, 645 (25%) and 557 (33%) men had BCR, while 83 (3.2%) and 71 (4.2%) patients had an aggressive recurrence. In external validation, predictive accuracy for an aggressive BCR was high (c = 0.83) and the nomogram showed good calibration.

CONCLUSIONS

We re‐calibrated an existing nomogram to not only predict overall BCR after RP but also aggressive recurrence after RP. Our new tool can provide valuable information for patient counselling and patient selection for adjuvant therapy trials.     

A nomogram to predict the renal prognosis of patients with lupus nephritis

Objective To develop a nomogram for the use of predicting renal outcomes of Chinese lupus nephritis (LN) patients. Methods From January 1, 2005 to October 1, 2015, 513 patients with biopsy-proven LN in the First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University were enrolled into this study. Renal outcomes were defined as end-stage renal disease or doubling of serum creatinine. Demographic characteristics, laboratory data, and pathologic data were recorded and included for analysis. Nomograms were designed using multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression to predict the non-outcome renal survival in 5 and 8 year according to the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and continuous reclassification net improvement (cNRI). Predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the models were determined by concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve. Results During a median follow up of 48 (24,71) months, 44 patients (8.58%) reached the endpoint. 1-year, 5-year and 8-year non-outcome renal survival were 97.57%, 92.89%, 79.89% respectively. According to multivariate Cox regression, four nomograms including index for baseline renal function, pathologic severity, and response to treatment were designed. The best model, within which included eGFR was lower than 30 ml?min-1?(1.73 m2)-1(HR=4.44, 95%CI 2.16-9.13, P＜0.01), percentage of global glomerulosclerosis was higher (HR=12.28, 95%CI 3.58-42.13, P＜0.01) and partial remission occurred after 6-month induction treatment (HR=9.16, 95%CI 4.71-17.82, P＜0.01) demonstrated good discrimination to predict 5-year and 8-year non-outcome renal survival [C-index, 0.80(95%CI 0.81-0.91), 0.76(95%CI 0.68-0.85), respectively]. The nomogram based on above model also performed good calibration. Conclusion The nomogram based on patients’ baseline eGFR, percentage of global glomerulosclerosis, and treatment reaction after 6-month induction therapy can accurately predict 5-year and 8-year non-outcome renal survival in Chinese lupus nephritis patients.     

Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting the overall survival of prostate cancer patients: a large population-based cohort study

BackgroundProstate cancer (PC) is the second most common malignant tumor, and its survival is of great concern. However, the assessment of survival risk in current studies is limited. This study is to develop and validate a nomogram for the prediction of survival in PC patients using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database.MethodsA total of 153,796 PC patients were included in this cohort study. Patients were divided into a training set (n=107,657) and a testing set (n=46,139). The 3-, 5- and 10-year survival of the PC patients were regarded as the outcomes. Predictors based on the demographic and pathological data for survival were identified by multivariate Cox regression analysis to develop the predictive nomogram. Internal and subgroup validations were performed to assess the predictive performance of the nomogram. The C-index, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and corresponding areas under the ROC curves (AUCs) were used to estimate the predictive performance of the nomogram.ResultsAge at diagnosis, race, marital status, tumor node metastasis (TNM) stage, prostate specific antigen (PSA) status, Gleason score, and pathological stage were identified as significantly associated with the survival of PC patients (P<0.05). The C-index of the nomogram indicated a moderate predictive ability [training set: C-index =0.782, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.779–0.785; testing set: C-index =0.782, 95% CI: 0.777–0.787]. The AUCs of this nomogram for the 3-, 5-, and 10-year survival were 0.757 (95% CI: 0.756–0.758), 0.741 (95% CI: 0.740–0.742), and 0.716 (95% CI: 0.715–0.717), respectively. The results of subgroup validation showed that all the AUCs for the nomogram at 3, 5, and 10 years were more than 0.70, regardless of marital status and race.ConclusionsWe developed a nomogram with the moderate predictive ability for the long-term survival (3-, 5-, and 10-year survival) of patients with PC.     

Development and validation of a machine learning-based nomogram for prediction of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma in patients with intrahepatic lithiasis

BackgroundAccurate diagnosis of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) caused by intrahepatic lithiasis (IHL) is crucial for timely and effective surgical intervention. The aim of the present study was to develop a nomogram to identify ICC associated with IHL (IHL-ICC).MethodsThe study included 2,269 patients with IHL, who received pathological diagnosis after hepatectomy or diagnostic biopsy. Machine learning algorithms including Lasso regression and random forest were used to identify important features out of the available features. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to reconfirm the features and develop the nomogram. The nomogram was externally validated in two independent cohorts.ResultsThe seven potential predictors were revealed for IHL-ICC, including age, abdominal pain, vomiting, comprehensive radiological diagnosis, alkaline phosphatase (ALK), carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), and cancer antigen (CA) 19-9. The optimal cutoff value was 2.05 µg/L for serum CEA and 133.65 U/mL for serum CA 19-9. The accuracy of the nomogram in predicting ICC was 82.6%. The area under the curve (AUC) of nomogram in training cohort was 0.867. The AUC for the validation set was 0.881 from The Second Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, and 0.938 from The First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University.ConclusionsThe nomogram holds promise as a novel and accurate tool to predict IHL-ICC, which can identify lesions in IHL in time for hepatectomy or avoid unnecessary surgical resection.     

建立前列腺特异性抗原灰区患者重复穿刺阳性的数学模型

目的:建立预测前列腺特异性抗原(PSA)灰区患者重复穿刺阳性的数学模型。方法:选择2004~2016年158例血清PSA位于4~10ng/ml且首次穿刺病理结果为阴性的患者行重复穿刺,记录并分析患者的年龄、前列腺体积(PV)、PSA、游离PSA(fPSA)/总PSA(tPSA)、前列腺特异性抗原速率(PSAV)、前列腺特异抗原密度(PSAD)、前列腺移行带特异性抗原密度(PSAD-TZ)、超声检查(TRUS)、直肠指检(DRE)、高级别上皮内瘤变(HGPIN)、不典型小腺泡增生(ASAP)等重复活检结果的潜在预测指标。将有统计学意义的变量行二分类Logistic回归分析和建立数学模型,该模型的预测价值通过ROC曲线下面积(AUC)来评估。结果:158例前列腺重复穿刺活检患者中,前列腺癌的检出率为25.9%(41/158),单变量分析结果中统计学上有意义的指标包括Age、PV、f/tPSA、PSAD、PSAD-TZ、DRE、TRUS、Previous HGPIN、Previous ASAP(P<0.05),对以上所有变量进行二分类Logistic回归分析并建立数学模型,预测指标ASAP、HGPIN、f/tPSA、TRUS、DRE被纳入该模型。该模型AUC为89.8%,预测价值较高。结论:该数学模型可以很好的预测PSA患者重复穿刺阳性的概率,能够帮助临床医师判断哪些PSA灰区患者更适合行超声引导下前列腺重复穿刺活检术。     

精子染色质扩散实验检测精索静脉曲张及不明原因不育患者精子DNA碎片

目的了解精索静脉曲张(VC)及不明原因不育患者精子DNA碎片的发生比例。方法改进的精子染色质扩散(SCD)实验分析精子DNA碎片。检测VC不育患者39例,不明原因不育患者57例。以生育健康成年男性32例为对照组。结果VC不育患者SCD小光晕和无光晕精子(精子DNA碎片)比值平均为(36.6±18.9)%,VC不育组明显高于对照组(12.1±5.2)%(P<0.001),而大光晕和中光晕精子比值VC不育组明显低于对照组(P<0.01);不明原因不育患者精子DNA碎片比值平均为(26.8±10.2)%,与对照组[(12.1±5.2)%]比较有显著性差异(P<0.001)。结论SCD实验表明,VC及不明原因不育患者精子DNA碎片比值增高。     

Development and validation of prognostic nomograms and a web-based survival rate calculator for sarcomatoid renal cell carcinoma in pre- and post-treatment patients

BackgroundTo develop a clinical prediction model and web-based survival rate calculator to predict the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of sarcomatoid renal cell carcinoma (SRCC) for clinical diagnosis and treatment.MethodsSRCC patient data were retrieved from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Factors independently associated with survival were identified by a Cox regression analysis. Nomograms of the prediction model were constructed using a SEER training cohort and validated with a SEER validation cohort. At the same time, the decision analysis curve, receiver operating characteristic curve, and calibration curve were also used to examine and evaluate the model. A web-based survival rate calculator was constructed to help assist in the assessment of the disease condition and clinical prognosis.ResultsThe records of 2,742 SRCC cases were retrieved from SEER, while 1,921 cases with a median OS of 14 and CSS of 32 months were used as the training cohort. The developed nomograms were more accurate than that of the American Joint Committee on Cancer staging (C-indexes of 0.767 versus 0.725 for OS and 0.775 versus 0.715 for CSS), with better discrimination than that of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage model and the calibration was validated in the SEER validation cohort. The model’s 3- and 5-year OS and CSS were superior to AJCC and T staging on the analysis decision curve. The prognosis prediction of SRCC established by the prediction model could be evaluated through the web-based survival rate calculator, which plays a guiding role in clinical treatment.ConclusionsNomograms and a web-based survival rate calculator predicting the OS and CSS of SRCC patients with better discrimination and calibration were developed.