基于灰色马尔科夫模型预测四川省肺癌死亡率趋势研究

目的 预测未来5年四川省肺癌死亡率变化趋势,为四川省加强肺癌防治提供理论依据。方法 通过《四川统计年鉴》明确该省2005至2021年肺癌死亡率情况,运用灰色马尔科夫模型结合Matlab2017b软件对四川省未来5年的肺癌死亡率进行预测。结果 灰色模型的预测精度为95.07%,通过马尔科夫链进行优化后,预测精度上升至98.06%,优化后的模型拟合预测效果更精准。灰色马尔科夫模型预测未来5年四川省肺癌死亡率将呈持续上升趋势。结论 灰色马尔科夫模型可以对四川省肺癌死亡率进行较好的预测和拟合,该组合模型可以作为未来预测肺癌死亡率发展趋势的一种新方法,为肺癌防治提供理论依据。     

应用灰色模型预测长沙市城区恶性肿瘤死亡趋势

目的:根据长沙市城区恶性肿瘤死亡率应用GM(1,1)模型,建立灰色预测模型。经检验,模型拟合精度好,外推预测效果满意。     

GM(1,1)模型在子宫颈癌死亡率预测中的应用

目的:预测湖北省荆州市子宫颈癌疾病死亡率趋势,为制定针对性的防治管理措施提供依据。方法:依据荆州市2002～2009年子宫颈癌的死亡率,应用灰色系统理论,建立子宫颈癌死亡率预测模型,进行预测研究。结果:求得荆州市子宫颈癌死亡率的预测模型为X(k+1)=-113.7842e-0.0 2 7 4 7R+117.0342,拟合检验显示本模型拟合精度为好,能够较好的预测子宫颈癌的死亡率。结论:荆州市子宫颈癌死亡率将继续呈下降趋势。     

灰色GM(1,1)预测模型对糖尿病的死亡分析及趋势预测

目的：预测糖尿病死亡率的变化趋势。方法：利用灰色系统GM（1，1）预测模型Y（t)=[x(1)-u/a]e^-a(t-1) u/a]分别预测1999至2004年糖尿病的死亡率趋势。结果：依据某市1991至1998年糖尿病死亡率资料，所建立的灰色预测模型为：Y(t)=492.36e^0.0328(t^-1)-477.03，拟合结果显示，模型的平均误差率为1．8％，精度为优（C＝0．29，P＝1。结论：预测结果表明：近10a来糖尿病的死亡率呈持续上升趋势。     

应用GM(1,1)灰色模型预测甘井子区恶性肿瘤患者的死亡率

目的:探讨GM(1,1)灰色模型在恶性肿瘤患者死亡率预测中的应用。方法:对甘井子区2002-2013年恶性肿瘤死亡资料进行流行病学描述,用x2检验进行率的比较;并建立恶性肿瘤GM(1,1)灰色预测模型,评价模型预测效能,预测本区2014-2018年恶性肿瘤患者的死亡率。结果:甘井子区2002-2013年恶性肿瘤患者的死亡率呈现逐年上升趋势;恶性肿瘤患者的死亡率建立GM(1,1)灰色预测模型的验差比值和小误差概率分别为0.3447、1,模型判为优秀,可以用于外推预测。2014-2015年恶性肿瘤患者的死亡率预测值分别为230.14/10万、237.13/10万、244.33/10万、251.74/10万、259.38/10万。结论:GM(1,1)灰色模型可用于恶性肿瘤患者死亡率的预测。     

三种预测模型在肺结核发病预测中的应用

目的建立合理的肺结核病发病预测模型,推测重庆市肺结核病疫情未来流行趋势,从而为合理分配卫生资源和持续有效地开展肺结核病防制工作提供科学依据。方法收集重庆市结核病防治所登记的1993—2008年肺结核年发病人数的登记资料,采用灰色预测模型、灰色马尔可夫组合预测模型与BP神经网络模型对重庆市结核发病人数进行预测对比分析,筛选最优拟合效果模型。结果采用灰色预测模型、灰色马尔可夫组合预测模型与BP神经网络模型对重庆市肺结核病发病疫情进行预测分析,3个模型的平均相对误差分别为23.81%、3.68%、3.52%。结论对于肺结核病发病的预测,BP神经网络模型拟合效果最好,预测精度更高,预测数据更合理。     

灰色系统GM（1，1）模型在胃癌死亡率预测的应用

灰色系统ＧＭ（１，１）模型在胃癌死亡率预测的应用吴彬，罗仁夏关键词：ＧＭ（１，１）模型，胃癌，预测灰色模型是一种新型而又简便的预测模型，在农业与经济领域中的应用已收到显著效益，近年来已应用到医学领域及卫生管理事业中，但用于恶性肿瘤死亡率预测还很少。本...     

灰色系统GM(1,1)模型在医学预测中的应用

介绍了灰色系统GM(1,1)模型的预测方法,并用该模型对学生近视率进行预测分析,拟合与外推预测的平均误差分别占实测值均数的1.43%和1.21%。本文还将灰色系统GM(1,1)模型与常见的直线回归模型和指数曲线模型进行了比较,结果表明GM(1,1)模型的预测效果较上述两种模型好。该模型所需样本量小,不需要典型的概率分布,计算简便,预测效果好,适用范围广,是一种新型预测模型。     

3种模型对广东省某区华支睾吸虫感染率趋势的预测比较

目的 比较GM(1,1)灰色预测模型、曲线拟合和指数平滑模型对江门市新会区人群华支睾吸虫感染率趋势的预测,为制定防治措施提供参考。方法 基于广东省疾病预防控制中心寄生虫病预防控制所和江门市新会区疾病预防控制中心的监测数据,采用GM(1,1)灰色预测模型、曲线拟合和指数平滑模型分别对2016-2020年华支睾吸虫感染率进行拟合建立模型,并比较拟合精度和拟合效果选出最优模型。结果 GM(1,1)灰色预测模型、曲线拟合(S型曲线)和指数平滑模型(霍尔特线性趋势模型)对2016-2020年江门市新会区华支睾吸虫感染率拟合后的平均绝对百分比误差分别为11.43%、11.06%和13.15%,预测2021年江门市华支睾吸虫感染率分别为8.04%、6.91%和7.11%,预测的相对误差分别为-26.71%、-36.98%和-35.19%。根据3种模型的拟合精度和拟合效果比较,S型曲线拟合精度最好,GM(1,1)灰色预测模型的预测效果最好。结论 GM(1,1)灰色预测模型能更好地对江门市新会区人群华支睾吸虫感染率进行短期预测,可为后期华支睾吸虫病防治决策提供参考。     

组合模型在肺癌死亡率预测中的构建和应用

目的 用3种预测方法对肺癌死亡率进行拟合,选择最优方法,建立组合模型并进行预测。方法 用动态数列、joinpoint回归、指数平滑对2001～2013年金昌队列肺癌死亡率进行拟合,选择单项模型形成组合模型进行拟合并预测。组合模型权重系数的计算基于算术平均法、方差倒数法、均方误差倒数法、简单加权平均法。结果 单项预测模型以指数平滑法拟合精度最高,为79.67%,Joinpoint线性回归拟合精度为74.27%。指数平滑与Joinpoint线性回归进行组合,其中以算术平均法及均方误差倒数法预测效果最好,拟合精度分别为86.87%、85.80%。结论 组合模型优于单项预测法,可以用于肺癌死亡率预测。     

2013-2018年营口市城市户籍居民恶性肿瘤死因分析

背景　进入21世纪,恶性肿瘤发病率和死亡率不断攀升,给社会及个人带来精神和经济双重负担。因此,做好恶性肿瘤的防控工作至关重要。目的　对2013-2018年营口市城市户籍居民恶性肿瘤死亡情况进行分析描述,为营口市恶性肿瘤防治工作提供理论依据。方法　采用回顾性研究方法,居民死亡资料来源于中国疾病预防控制中心信息系统中的人口死亡信息系统,从系统中导出2013-01-01至2018-12-31营口市城市户籍居民全部死亡数据,并根据国际疾病分类（ICD-10）进行死因分类,整理出全部恶性肿瘤死亡数据。计算粗死亡率、标化死亡率、年度变化百分比（APC）、潜在减寿年数（PYLL）、潜在减寿率（PYLLR）和平均减寿年数（AYLL）等指标。采用Excel 2007、DeathReg 2005、SPSS 17.0、Joinpoint 4.7.0.0分析营口市城市户籍居民恶性肿瘤死亡情况和造成的寿命损失,并建立GM灰色预测模型预测营口市2019-2021年恶性肿瘤粗死亡率。结果　2013-2018年营口市城市户籍居民因恶性肿瘤死亡人数共计5 638例,年均粗死亡率为210.89/10万,标化死亡率为162.47/10万。其中男性年均粗死亡率为263.78/10万,标化死亡率为209.76/10万;女性年均粗死亡率为159.71/10万,标化死亡率为120.23/10万。16~50岁粗死亡率出现明显上升趋势（APC=16.42%,P<0.01）,50岁之后粗死亡率上升趋势有所减慢（APC=8.03%,P<0.01）。居民恶性肿瘤死因顺位前6位依次为肺癌、肝癌、结直肠和肛门癌、胃癌、食管癌和乳腺癌。2013-2018年,结直肠和肛门癌粗死亡率呈现上升趋势（APC=8.27%,P<0.01）。居民因主要恶性肿瘤死亡造成的PYLL和AYLL分别为21 948人年和10.79年。肺癌造成的PYLL最大（8 327人年）,乳腺癌（1 773人年）对于女性寿命的影响仅次于肺癌（2 533人年）。GM灰色预测模型预测2019年营口市城市户籍居民恶性肿瘤的粗死亡率为223.86/10万,2020年为227.63/10万,2021年为231.46/10万。结论　营口市城市户籍居民恶性肿瘤位列死因顺位的第2位。除女性乳腺癌外,其他主要恶性肿瘤的粗死亡率男性均高于女性。肝癌和乳腺癌呈现年轻化趋势。预测2019-2021年营口市城市居民恶性肿瘤粗死亡率呈上升趋势且高于往年。可见,恶性肿瘤已成为严重威胁营口市城市居民健康的主要原因,应加强相关干预和管理。     

广西六县（区）2008—2016年结直肠癌死亡分析及趋势预测

目的 了解广西6县（区）居民结直肠癌死亡情况,并对死亡发展趋势进行预测,从而为进一步制定结直肠癌防控策略提供参考。 方法 采用国际疾病分类ICD-10对所患疾病进行死因编码,用Excel2010进行统计分析;应用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型,建立结直肠癌死亡率预测模型。 结果 广西6县（区）结直肠癌2008—2016年年均死亡率为9.05/10万,城市居民结直肠癌死亡率明显高于农村居民（P<0.01）,男性结直肠癌死亡率明显高于女性（P<0.01）;居民结直肠癌的死亡率从50岁后随年龄增长呈现明显升高趋势,85岁达高峰;2017—2021年死亡率预测结果分别为11.23/10万、11.76/10万、12.32/10万、12.90/10万、13.51/10万。 结论 结直肠癌死亡率呈上升趋势,应以城市、男性、老年居民作为重点关注对象,加强健康教育和社区筛查,有效防治结直肠癌。     

Long-term trends in cancer mortality for Indigenous Australians in the Northern Territory

OBJECTIVE: To examine long-term trends in cancer mortality in the Indigenous people of the Northern Territory (NT) of Australia. DESIGN: Comparison of cancer mortality rates of the NT Indigenous population with those of the total Australian population for 1991-2000, and examination of time trends in cancer mortality rates in the NT Indigenous population, 1977-2000. PARTICIPANTS: NT Indigenous and total Australian populations, 1977-2000. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cancer mortality rate ratios and percentage change in annual mortality rates. RESULTS: The NT Indigenous cancer mortality rate was higher than the total Australian rate for cancers of the liver, lungs, uterus, cervix and thyroid, and, in younger people only, for cancers of the oropharynx, oesophagus and pancreas. NT Indigenous mortality rates were lower than the total Australian rates for renal cancers and melanoma and, in older people only, for cancers of the prostate and bowel. Differences between Indigenous and total Australian cancer mortality rates were more pronounced among those aged under 64 years for most cancers. NT Indigenous cancer mortality rates increased over the 24-year period for cancers of the oropharynx, pancreas and lung, all of which are smoking-related cancers. CONCLUSIONS: Cancer is an important and increasing health problem for Indigenous Australians. Cancers that affect Indigenous Australians to a greater extent than other Australians are largely preventable (eg, through smoking cessation, Pap smear programs and hepatitis B vaccination).     

Trend Analysis of Cancer Mortality in the Jinchang Cohort,China, 2001-2010

Objective To describe the baseline data of cancers in the Jinchang Cohort, this paper examined trends in cancer mortality among adults investigated in Jinchang, Gansu province from 2001 to 2010.
Methods Mortality data were collected from company departments through administrative documents, death certificates, etc. Trend analyses of cancer mortality were performed on the basis of 925 cancer deaths between 2001 and 2010.
Results The crude mortality rate of cancer continuously increased from 161.86 per 100,000 in 2001 to
315.32 per 100,000 in 2010, with an average increase of 7.69%per year in the Jinchang Cohort (16.41%in females compared to 6.04% in males), but the age-standardized mortality rate increased only in females. Thirteen leading cancers accounted for 92.10%of all cancer deaths. The five leading causes of cancer mortality in males were lung, gastric, liver, esophageal, and colorectal cancer, whereas those in females were lung, liver, gastric, breast, and esophageal cancer.
Conclusion The overall cancer mortality rate increased from 2001 to 2010 in the Jinchang Cohort, with greater rate of increase in females than in males. Lung, breast, and gastric cancer, in that order, were the leading causes of increased cancer mortality in females.     

Cancer incidence and mortality in Zhejiang Province,Southeast China, 2016: a population-based study

Backgrounds:Cancer is one of the main causes of death worldwide, seriously threatening human health and life expectancy. We aimed to analyze the cancer incidence and mortality rates during 2016 in Zhejiang Province, Southeast China.Methods:Data were collected from 14 population-based cancer registries across Zhejiang Province of China. Cancer incidence and mortality rates stratified by sex and region were analyzed. The crude rate, age-standardized rate, age-specific and region-specific rate, and cumulative rate were calculated. The proportions of 10 common cancers in different groups and the incidence and mortality rates of the top five cancers in different age groups were also calculated. The Chinese national census of 2000 and the world Segi population was used for calculating the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates.Results:The 14 cancer registries covered a population of 14,250,844 individuals, accounting for 29.13% of the population of Zhejiang Province. The total reported cancer cases and deaths were 55,835 and 27,013, respectively. The proportion of morphological verification (MV%) was 78.95% of the population, and percentage of incident cases identified through death certificates only (DCO%) was 1.23% with a mortality-to-incidence ratio (M/I ratio) of 0.48. The crude incidence rate in Zhejiang cancer registration areas was 391.80/10⁵; the age-standardized incidence rate of the Chinese standard population (ASIRC) and the age-standardized incidence rate of the world standard population (ASIRW) were 229.76/10⁵ and 220.96/10⁵, respectively. The incidence rate in men was higher than that in women. The incidence rate increased rapidly after 45 years of age and peaked in individuals aged 80 to 84 years. The top 10 incidence rates of cancers were lung cancer, female breast cancer, thyroid cancer, colorectal cancer, stomach cancer, liver cancer, prostate cancer, cervical cancer, esophageal cancer, and pancreatic cancer (from highest to lowest). The crude mortality rate in Zhejiang cancer registration areas was 189.55/10⁵; the age-standardized mortality rate of the Chinese standard population (ASMRC) and the age-standardized mortality rate of the world standard population (ASMRW) were 94.46/10⁵ and 93.42/10⁵, respectively. The mortality rate in men was higher than that in women, and the male population in rural areas was higher than that in urban areas. The cancer mortality rate increased rapidly after 50 years of age and peaked in individuals aged 85+ years. The top 10 mortality rates of cancers were lung cancer, liver cancer, stomach cancer, colorectal cancer, pancreatic cancer, esophageal cancer, female breast cancer, prostate cancer, lymphoma, and leukemia (from highest to lowest).Conclusions:Lung cancer, female breast cancer, thyroid cancer, colorectal cancer, prostate cancer, liver cancer, and stomach cancer were the most common cancers in Zhejiang Province. Effective prevention and control measures should be established after considering the different characteristics of cancers in urban and rural areas.     

建筑工人死因分析

对某建筑公司进行了15年死因回顾性调查,共观察23419人年,死亡65人。恶性肿瘤居死因之首,脑部疾患与胃癌死亡率显著高于当地人群,标化死亡比(SMR)分别为2.50,2.74,其中建筑工全死因、全癌、脑、肺疾患及胃癌的SMR分别为2.00、2.31、5.43、4.22、4.49;其他操作工全死因、全癌及肝癌的SMR分别为2.05、3.03、6.25,均显著高于当地人群。     

灰色数列预测模型在煤工尘肺预测中的应用

利用灰色数列预测模型对煤工尘肺年度患病人数进行了预测，同时与指数曲线模型和二次抛物线模型的预测效果进行了比较。结果表明：灰色数列预测模型外推性预测效果优于另外二种模型。     

1GM（1，1）季节指数模型在季节性发病情况预测研究中的应用

目的季节性发病具有季节波动性,适宜采用季节指数对原始序列进行修正后建立GM（1,1）预测模型。方法本文以某地区2004-2008年甲型肝炎发病率建立GM（1,1）模型、GM（1,1）季节指数修正模型。结果在有季节性变动的发病率预测中,GM（1,1）季节指数修正模型预测精度明显提高。结论GM（1,1）季节指数模型可以应用于季节性传染病的预测。