Agreement of Medicaid claims and electronic health records for assessing preventive care quality among adults

To compare the agreement of electronic health record (EHR) data versus Medicaid claims data in documenting adult preventive care. Insurance claims are commonly used to measure care quality. EHR data could serve this purpose, but little information exists about how this source compares in service documentation. For 13 101 Medicaid-insured adult patients attending 43 Oregon community health centers, we compared documentation of 11 preventive services, based on EHR versus Medicaid claims data. Documentation was comparable for most services. Agreement was highest for influenza vaccination (κ =  0.77; 95% CI 0.75 to 0.79), cholesterol screening (κ = 0.80; 95% CI 0.79 to 0.81), and cervical cancer screening (κ = 0.71; 95% CI 0.70 to 0.73), and lowest on services commonly referred out of primary care clinics and those that usually do not generate claims. EHRs show promise for use in quality reporting. Strategies to maximize data capture in EHRs are needed to optimize the use of EHR data for service documentation.     

Patient characteristics associated with venous thromboembolic events: a cohort study using pooled electronic health record data

Objective

To demonstrate the potential of de-identified clinical data from multiple healthcare systems using different electronic health records (EHR) to be efficiently used for very large retrospective cohort studies.

Materials and methods

Data of 959 030 patients, pooled from multiple different healthcare systems with distinct EHR, were obtained. Data were standardized and normalized using common ontologies, searchable through a HIPAA-compliant, patient de-identified web application (Explore; Explorys Inc). Patients were 26 years or older seen in multiple healthcare systems from 1999 to 2011 with data from EHR.

Results

Comparing obese, tall subjects with normal body mass index, short subjects, the venous thromboembolic events (VTE) OR was 1.83 (95% CI 1.76 to 1.91) for women and 1.21 (1.10 to 1.32) for men. Weight had more effect then height on VTE. Compared with Caucasian, Hispanic/Latino subjects had a much lower risk of VTE (female OR 0.47, 0.41 to 0.55; male OR 0.24, 0.20 to 0.28) and African-Americans a substantially higher risk (female OR 1.83, 1.76 to 1.91; male OR 1.58, 1.50 to 1.66). This 13-year retrospective study of almost one million patients was performed over approximately 125 h in 11 weeks, part time by the five authors.

Discussion

As research informatics tools develop and more clinical data become available in EHR, it is important to study and understand unique opportunities for clinical research informatics to transform the scale and resources needed to perform certain types of clinical research.

Conclusions

With the right clinical research informatics tools and EHR data, some types of very large cohort studies can be completed with minimal resources.     

Electronic health records improve clinical note quality

Background and objective The clinical note documents the clinician''s information collection, problem assessment, clinical management, and its used for administrative purposes. Electronic health records (EHRs) are being implemented in clinical practices throughout the USA yet it is not known whether they improve the quality of clinical notes. The goal in this study was to determine if EHRs improve the quality of outpatient clinical notes.Materials and methods A five and a half year longitudinal retrospective multicenter quantitative study comparing the quality of handwritten and electronic outpatient clinical visit notes for 100 patients with type 2 diabetes at three time points: 6 months prior to the introduction of the EHR (before-EHR), 6 months after the introduction of the EHR (after-EHR), and 5 years after the introduction of the EHR (5-year-EHR). QNOTE, a validated quantitative instrument, was used to assess the quality of outpatient clinical notes. Its scores can range from a low of 0 to a high of 100. Sixteen primary care physicians with active practices used QNOTE to determine the quality of the 300 patient notes.Results The before-EHR, after-EHR, and 5-year-EHR grand mean scores (SD) were 52.0 (18.4), 61.2 (16.3), and 80.4 (8.9), respectively, and the change in scores for before-EHR to after-EHR and before-EHR to 5-year-EHR were 18% (p<0.0001) and 55% (p<0.0001), respectively. All the element and grand mean quality scores significantly improved over the 5-year time interval.Conclusions The EHR significantly improved the overall quality of the outpatient clinical note and the quality of all its elements, including the core and non-core elements. To our knowledge, this is the first study to demonstrate that the EHR significantly improves the quality of clinical notes.     

Association between serum uric acid level and mortality in China

Background:Whether there is an association between serum uric acid (SUA) level and risk of mortality in the general population remains unclear. Based on the China National Survey of Chronic Kidney Disease linked to mortality data, a population-based cohort study was performed to investigate the association between SUA level and all-cause mortality, cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, and cancer mortality in China.Methods:The survival status of participants in the cross-sectional survey was identified from January 1, 2006 to December 31, 2017. Only 33,268 individuals with complete SUA data among the 47,204 participants were included in the analysis. We determined the rates of all-cause mortality, CVD mortality, and cancer mortality. We used Cox proportional hazards regression models to evaluate the effect of the SUA level on mortality.Results:During a total of 297,538.4 person-years of follow-up, 1282 deaths occurred. In the Cox proportional hazards regression model, the rate of all-cause mortality, CVD mortality, and cancer mortality had a U-shaped association with SUA levels only in men, whereas no significant associations were detected in women. For all-cause mortality in men, the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) in the first, second, and fourth quartiles compared with the third quartile were 1.31 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04–1.67), 1.17 (95% CI 0.92–1.47), and 1.55 (95% CI 1.24–1.93), respectively. For CVD mortality, the corresponding HRs were 1.47 (95% CI 1.00–2.18), 1.17 (95% CI 0.79–1.75), and 1.67 (95% CI 1.16–2.43), respectively. For the cancer mortality rate, only a marginally significant association was detected in the fourth quartile compared with the third quartile with an HR of 1.43 (95% CI 0.99–2.08).Conclusions:The association between SUA and mortality differed by sex. We demonstrated a U-shaped association with SUA levels for all-cause and CVD mortalities among men in China.     

他汀类药物对癌症患者预后的 Meta 分析(英文)

目的：系统评价癌症患者服用他汀类药物后对疾病预后的作用。方法：利用计算机检索Cochrane Library, PubMed和EMbase数据库,收集这些数据库中从建库至2015年3月公开发表的有关他汀类药物和癌症预后的文章,采 用Stata 12.0软件进行Meta分析。结果：共纳入25篇文献,523 193例患者。Meta分析结果显示：与未服用他汀类药物的 癌症患者相比,服用他汀类药物的癌症患者的总体死亡危险比(hazard ratio,HR)为0.82(95% CI：0.76~0.89)。亚组分析 结果显示前列腺癌症患者死亡的HR为0.66(95% CI：0.52~0.83)。敏感性分析显示在排除随访时间<5年的文献后,服用 他汀类药物的癌症患者的死亡HR为0.91(95% CI：0.75~1.10)。结论：他汀类药物能在一定程度上降低癌症患者的病死 率,但其远期作用还需要进一步研究确认。     

BMI and BMI Changes to All-cause Mortality among the Elderly in Beijing: a 20-year Cohort Study

Objective To explore the association between body mass index (BMI) and all-cause mortality among the elderly in Beijing. Methods This analysis was based on the Beijing multidimensional longitudinal study of aging (BLSA), which included 2,090 subjects over 55 years old and was followed-up from 1992 to 2012. BMI-mortality curves were drawn to find the optimal BMI range with the lowest mortality. Cox proportional hazard models were used to obtain the hazard ratios (HRs) for BMI and BMI changes in the overall population and in specific stratified populations. Results During follow-up, 1,164 deaths were recorded; BMI-mortality curve was U-shaped, with the lowest mortality at a BMI of approximately 25 kg/m2. After adjusting for gender, age, smoking, drinking and some pre-existing diseases, HRs for underweight, overweight and obesity compared with normal weight were 1.372 (95% CI: 1.154-1.631), 0.767 (95% CI: 0.666-0.884) and 0.871 (95% CI: 0.830-1.246), respectively. HR for BMI drop was 3.245 (95% CI: 0.824-12.772) in the underweight group and 1.892 (95% CI: 0.830-1.246) in the normal weight group, HR for BMI rise was 1.795 (95% CI: 1.243-2.591) in normal weight group and 1.962 (95% CI: 1.202-3.203) in the overweight group. Conclusion Keeping BMI in an overweight status and stable is related to a reduced mortality.     

How is the electronic health record being used? Use of EHR data to assess physician-level variability in technology use

Background

Studies of the effects of electronic health records (EHRs) have had mixed findings, which may be attributable to unmeasured confounders such as individual variability in use of EHR features.

Objective

To capture physician-level variations in use of EHR features, associations with other predictors, and usage intensity over time.

Methods

Retrospective cohort study of primary care providers eligible for meaningful use at a network of federally qualified health centers, using commercial EHR data from January 2010 through June 2013, a period during which the organization was preparing for and in the early stages of meaningful use.

Results

Data were analyzed for 112 physicians and nurse practitioners, consisting of 430 803 encounters with 99 649 patients. EHR usage metrics were developed to capture how providers accessed and added to patient data (eg, problem list updates), used clinical decision support (eg, responses to alerts), communicated (eg, printing after-visit summaries), and used panel management options (eg, viewed panel reports). Provider-level variability was high: for example, the annual average proportion of encounters with problem lists updated ranged from 5% to 60% per provider. Some metrics were associated with provider, patient, or encounter characteristics. For example, problem list updates were more likely for new patients than established ones, and alert acceptance was negatively correlated with alert frequency.

Conclusions

Providers using the same EHR developed personalized patterns of use of EHR features. We conclude that physician-level usage of EHR features may be a valuable additional predictor in research on the effects of EHRs on healthcare quality and costs.     

Informatics and operations—let's get integrated

The widespread adoption of commercial electronic health records (EHRs) presents a significant challenge to the field of informatics. In their current form, EHRs function as a walled garden and prevent the integration of outside tools and services. This impedes the widespread adoption and diffusion of research interventions into the clinic. In most institutions, EHRs are supported by clinical operations staff who are largely separate from their informatics counterparts. This relationship needs to change. Research informatics and clinical operations need to work more closely on the implementation and configuration of EHRs to ensure that they are used to collect high-quality data for research and improvement at the point of care. At the same time, the informatics community needs to lobby commercial EHR vendors to open their systems and design new architectures that allow for the integration of external applications and services.     

Organizational complements to electronic health records in ambulatory physician performance: the role of support staff

In industries outside healthcare, highly skilled employees enable substantial gains in productivity after adoption of information technologies. The authors explore whether the presence of highly skilled, autonomous clinical support staff is associated with higher performance among physicians with electronic health records (EHRs). Using data from a survey of general internists, the authors assessed whether physicians with EHRs were more likely to be top performers on cost and quality if they worked with nurse practitioners or physician assistants. It was found that, among physicians with EHRs, those with highly skilled, autonomous staff were far more likely to be top performing than those without such staff (OR 7.0, 95% CI 1.7 to 34.8, p=0.02). This relationship did not hold among physicians without EHRs (OR 1.0). As we begin a national push towards greater EHR adoption, it is critical to understand why some physicians gain from EHR use and others do not.     

Brief communication: The Greater Plains Collaborative: a PCORnet Clinical Research Data Network

The Greater Plains Collaborative (GPC) is composed of 10 leading medical centers repurposing the research programs and informatics infrastructures developed through Clinical and Translational Science Award initiatives. Partners are the University of Kansas Medical Center, Children''s Mercy Hospital, University of Iowa Healthcare, the University of Wisconsin-Madison, the Medical College of Wisconsin and Marshfield Clinic, the University of Minnesota Academic Health Center, the University of Nebraska Medical Center, the University of Texas Health Sciences Center at San Antonio, and the University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center. The GPC network brings together a diverse population of 10 million people across 1300 miles covering seven states with a combined area of 679 159 square miles. Using input from community members, breast cancer was selected as a focus for cohort building activities. In addition to a high-prevalence disorder, we also selected a rare disease, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.     

Yogurt Intake Reduces All-Cause and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality: A Meta-Analysis of Eight Prospective Cohort Studies

Objective: To assess the relationship between yogurt intake and mortality risk from prospective cohort studies. Methods: The PubMed, EMBASE, and Web of Science databases were searched for all records related to yogurt intake and mortality risk [all-cause or cardiovascular disease (CVD) or cancer mortality] before October 1, 2018. The Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Scale was used to estimate the quality of all eligible articles. The results of the highest and lowest categories of yogurt intake in each study were collected and the effect size was pooled using a random effects model. The dose-response analysis was calculated using the generalized least squares trend estimation model. Results: Eight eligible cohort studies were included in this meta-analysis. There were 235,676 participants in the 8 studies, and the number of deaths was 14,831. Compared with the lowest category, the highest category of yogurt intake was not significantly related with all cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR)=0.93; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.85, 1.01], CVD mortality (HR=0.92; 95% CI: 0.81, 1.03) and cancer mortality (HR=0.97; 95% CI: 0.83, 1.12). These studies were homogenous, since the homogeneity test showed that I2 was 28.7%, 15.1% and 11.8%, respectively. However, yogurt intake 200 g/d was significantly associated with a lower all-cause mortality (HR=0.88; 95% CI: 0.80, 0.96) and CVD mortality (HR=0.87; 95% CI: 0.77, 0.99) in the subgroup analysis. The dose-response analysis showed that yogurt intake of 200 g/d was inversely associated with all-cause mortality (P=0.041, HR=0.95, 95% CI: 0.92, 1.00) and CVD mortality (P=0.009, HR=0.92, 95% CI: 0.86, 0.98), and all of which were linear relationship (P>0.05). Conclusions: This review provided the evidence regarding yogurt intake can reduce all-cause and CVD mortality. Although some positive findings were identified, more high-quality cohort studies and randomized controlled trials are warranted on a possible protective effect of yoghurt on health.     

Correlates of Electronic Health Record Adoption in Office Practices: A Statewide Survey

Objective

Despite emerging evidence that electronic health records (EHRs) can improve the efficiency and quality of medical care, most physicians in office practice in the United States do not currently use an EHR. We sought to measure the correlates of EHR adoption.

Design

Mailed survey to a stratified random sample of all medical practices in Massachusetts in 2005, with one physician per practice randomly selected for survey.

Measurements

EHR adoption rates.

Results

The response rate was 71% (1345/1884). Overall, while 45% of physicians were using an EHR, EHRs were present in only 23% of practices. In multivariate analysis, practice size was strongly correlated with EHR adoption; 52% of practices with 7 or more physicians had an EHR, as compared with 14% of solo practices (adjusted odds ratio, 3.66; 95% confidence interval, 2.28–5.87). Hospital-based practices (adjusted odds ratio, 2.44; 95% confidence interval, 1.53–3.91) and practices that teach medical students or residents (adjusted odds ratio, 2.30; 95% confidence interval, 1.60–3.31) were more likely to have an EHR. The most frequently cited barriers to adoption were start-up financial costs (84%), ongoing financial costs (82%), and loss of productivity (81%).

Conclusions

While almost half of physicians in Massachusetts are using an EHR, fewer than one in four practices in Massachusetts have adopted EHRs. Adoption rates are lower in smaller practices, those not affiliated with hospitals, and those that do not teach medical students or residents. Interventions to expand EHR use must address both financial and non-financial barriers, especially among smaller practices.     

Effects of electronic health record use on the exam room communication skills of resident physicians: a randomized within-subjects study

Background The effects of electronic health records (EHRs) on doctor–patient communication are unclear.Objective To evaluate the effects of EHR use compared with paper chart use, on novice physicians’ communication skills.Design Within-subjects randomized controlled trial using observed structured clinical examination methods to assess the impact of use of an EHR on communication.Setting A large academic internal medicine training program.Population First-year internal medicine residents.Intervention Residents interviewed, diagnosed, and initiated treatment of simulated patients using a paper chart or an EHR on a laptop computer. Video recordings of interviews were rated by three trained observers using the Four Habits scale.Results Thirty-two residents completed the study and had data available for review (61.5% of those enrolled in the residency program). In most skill areas in the Four Habits model, residents performed at least as well using the EHR and were statistically better in six of 23 skills areas (p<0.05). The overall average communication score was better when using an EHR: mean difference 0.254 (95% CI 0.05 to 0.45), p = 0.012, Cohen''s d of 0.47 (a moderate effect). Residents scoring poorly (>3 average score) with paper methods (n = 8) had clinically important improvement when using the EHR.Limitations This study was conducted in first-year residents in a training environment using simulated patients at a single institution.Conclusions Use of an EHR on a laptop computer appears to improve the ability of first-year residents to communicate with patients relative to using a paper chart.     

Past medical history and risk of death due to hepatocellular carcinoma, univariate analysis of JACC study data

The relationship between the past history of selected diseases and the risk of dying from hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) was analyzed using 110,792 cohort members (46,465 males and 64,327 females) recruited between 1988 and 1990 by the JACC Study (the Japan Collaborative Cohort Study for Evaluation of Cancer Risk). Significantly elevated hazard ratios (HRs) were observed in both genders for the past history of kidney diseases, liver diseases, gallstones or cholecystitis, diabetes mellitus, and blood transfusion. Further, when analyzed by age group (those 40-59 years of age were "younger" and those 60-79 years of age were "older"), although the significant associations were generally maintained, the magnitude of the HRs for liver diseases and diabetes mellitus seemed to be considerably different between the younger and older age groups for male cohort members. When the analyses were limited to cohort members without the past history of liver diseases, the past histories which had significantly elevated HRs were hypertension (HR = 3.14, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.25-7.89), diabetes mellitus (HR = 4.17, 95% CI: 1.22-14.25), and blood transfusion (HR = 7.69, 95% CI: 3.09-19.15) in the younger male age group and gallstone or cholecystitis (HR = 2.58, 95% CI: 1.11-5.98) in the older male age group. On the other hand, for females, the significantly elevated HRs were gastric or duodenal ulcer (HR = 4.33, 95% CI: 1.09-17.25) in the younger age group and diabetes mellitus (HR = 6.16, 95%CI: 2.25-16.90) and blood transfusion (HR = 3.86, 95%CI: 1.58-9.41) in the older age group. However, since the evidence from our univariate analyses might not be decisive, multivariate Cox proportional hazards models controlling for potential confounders and effect modifiers will be required to obtain more valid or unbiased hazard ratios.     

Preserved or slightly depressed ejection fraction and outcomes after myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND Left ventricular ejection fraction (EF) in post-myocardial infarction (MI) patients is a strong predictor of adverse cardiovascular events. Although resting EF as measured by transthoracic echocardiography (TTE), contrast ventriculography (CNV), and radionuclide angiography (RNA) exhibit high correlation, there is only modest agreement between these modalities. This study sought to explore whether modality of EF assessment influences prognostication of post-MI patients with normal or slightly reduced EF. METHODS AND RESULTS The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) limited access dataset of the Prevention of Events with Angiotensin Converting Enzyme Inhibition (PEACE) Trial (1996-2003, n=8290) comparing trandolapril versus placebo was used. The cohort was partitioned into TTE (n=2582), RNA (n=816), and CNV (n=1155) groups based on modality of EF assessment. EF was a significant predictor of cardiovascular mortality (HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.95 to 0.98; p<0.005) and all cause mortality (HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.97 to 0.99; p=0.0002) on multivariate analysis in this population with preserved or mildly depressed EF. Although CNV, TTE, and RNA groups differed significantly in terms of baseline variables, no appreciable differences were noted between RNA (HR 1.13, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.50; ns) and CNV (HR 1.13, 95% CI 0.99 to 1.27; ns) groups, compared with TTE for all cause mortality. Similarly, no significant differences were observed for cardiovascular mortality between RNA (HR 1.23, 95% CI 0.82 to 1.84; p=0.31) and CNV (HR 1.14, 95% CI 0.78 to 1.67, p=0.49) versus TTE. CONCLUSION EF is a significant predictor of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality in patients with preserved or mildly depressed EF. Modalities of EF measurement are interchangeable and do not play a significant role in prognostication in a post-MI population.     

Long-term outcomes and independent predictors of mortality in patients presenting to emergency departments with acute heart failure in Beijing: a multicenter cohort study with a 5-year follow-up

Background:Acute heart failure (AHF) is the most common disease in emergency departments (EDs). However, clinical data exploring the outcomes of patients presenting AHF in EDs are limited, especially the long-term outcomes. The purposes of this study were to describe the long-term outcomes of patients with AHF in the EDs and further analyze their prognostic factors.Methods:This prospective, multicenter, cohort study consecutively enrolled 3335 patients with AHF who were admitted to EDs of 14 hospitals from Beijing between January 1, 2011 and September 23, 2012. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analysis were adopted to evaluate 5-year outcomes and associated predictors.Results:The 5-year mortality and cardiovascular death rates were 55.4% and 49.6%, respectively. The median overall survival was 34 months. Independent predictors of 5-year mortality were patient age (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.027, 95 confidence interval [CI]: 1.023–1.030), body mass index (BMI) (HR: 0.971, 95% CI: 0.958–0.983), fatigue (HR: 1.127, 95% CI: 1.009–1.258), ascites (HR: 1.190, 95% CI: 1.057–1.340), hepatic jugular reflux (HR: 1.339, 95% CI: 1.140–1.572), New York Heart Association (NYHA) class III to IV (HR: 1.511, 95% CI: 1.291–1.769), heart rate (HR: 1.003, 95% CI: 1.001–1.005), diastolic blood pressure (DBP) (HR: 0.996, 95% CI: 0.993–0.999), blood urea nitrogen (BUN) (HR: 1.014, 95% CI: 1.008–1.020), B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP)/N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) level in the third (HR: 1.426, 95% CI: 1.220–1.668) or fourth quartile (HR: 1.437, 95% CI: 1.223–1.690), serum sodium (HR: 0.980, 95% CI: 0.972–0.988), serum albumin (HR: 0.981, 95% CI: 0.971–0.992), ischemic heart diseases (HR: 1.195, 95% CI: 1.073–1.331), primary cardiomyopathy (HR: 1.382, 95% CI: 1.183–1.614), diabetes (HR: 1.118, 95% CI: 1.010–1.237), stroke (HR: 1.252, 95% CI: 1.121–1.397), and the use of diuretics (HR: 0.714, 95% CI: 0.626–0.814), β-blockers (HR: 0.673, 95% CI: 0.588–0.769), angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) (HR: 0.714, 95% CI: 0.604–0.845), angiotensin-II receptor blockers (ARBs) (HR: 0.790, 95% CI: 0.646–0.965), spironolactone (HR: 0.814, 95% CI: 0.663–0.999), calcium antagonists (HR: 0.624, 95% CI: 0.531–0.733), nitrates (HR: 0.715, 95% CI: 0.631–0.811), and digoxin (HR: 0.579, 95% CI: 0.465–0.721).Conclusions:The results of our study demonstrate poor 5-year outcomes of patients presenting to EDs with AHF. Age, BMI, fatigue, ascites, hepatic jugular reflux, NYHA class III to IV, heart rate, DBP, BUN, BNP/NT-proBNP level in the third or fourth quartile, serum sodium, serum albumin, ischemic heart diseases, primary cardiomyopathy, diabetes, stroke, and the use of diuretics, β-blockers, ACEIs, ARBs, spironolactone, calcium antagonists, nitrates, and digoxin were independently associated with 5-year all-cause mortality.     

Research and applications: Combining structured and unstructured data to identify a cohort of ICU patients who received dialysis

Objective

To develop a generalizable method for identifying patient cohorts from electronic health record (EHR) data—in this case, patients having dialysis—that uses simple information retrieval (IR) tools.

Methods

We used the coded data and clinical notes from the 24 506 adult patients in the Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care database to identify patients who had dialysis. We used SQL queries to search the procedure, diagnosis, and coded nursing observations tables based on ICD-9 and local codes. We used a domain-specific search engine to find clinical notes containing terms related to dialysis. We manually validated the available records for a 10% random sample of patients who potentially had dialysis and a random sample of 200 patients who were not identified as having dialysis based on any of the sources.

Results

We identified 1844 patients that potentially had dialysis: 1481 from the three coded sources and 1624 from the clinical notes. Precision for identifying dialysis patients based on available data was estimated to be 78.4% (95% CI 71.9% to 84.2%) and recall was 100% (95% CI 86% to 100%).

Conclusions

Combining structured EHR data with information from clinical notes using simple queries increases the utility of both types of data for cohort identification. Patients identified by more than one source are more likely to meet the inclusion criteria; however, including patients found in any of the sources increases recall. This method is attractive because it is available to researchers with access to EHR data and off-the-shelf IR tools.     

Risk assessment of malignancy in solitary pulmonary nodules in lung computed tomography: a multivariable predictive model study

Background:Computed tomography images are easy to misjudge because of their complexity, especially images of solitary pulmonary nodules, of which diagnosis as benign or malignant is extremely important in lung cancer treatment. Therefore, there is an urgent need for a more effective strategy in lung cancer diagnosis. In our study, we aimed to externally validate and revise the Mayo model, and a new model was established.Methods:A total of 1450 patients from three centers with solitary pulmonary nodules who underwent surgery were included in the study and were divided into training, internal validation, and external validation sets (n = 849, 365, and 236, respectively). External verification and recalibration of the Mayo model and establishment of new logistic regression model were performed on the training set. Overall performance of each model was evaluated using area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Finally, the model validation was completed on the validation data set.Results:The AUC of the Mayo model on the training set was 0.653 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.613–0.694). After re-estimation of the coefficients of all covariates included in the original Mayo model, the revised Mayo model achieved an AUC of 0.671 (95% CI: 0.635–0.706). We then developed a new model that achieved a higher AUC of 0.891 (95% CI: 0.865–0.917). It had an AUC of 0.888 (95% CI: 0.842–0.934) on the internal validation set, which was significantly higher than that of the revised Mayo model (AUC: 0.577, 95% CI: 0.509–0.646) and the Mayo model (AUC: 0.609, 95% CI, 0.544–0.675) (P < 0.001). The AUC of the new model was 0.876 (95% CI: 0.831–0.920) on the external verification set, which was higher than the corresponding value of the Mayo model (AUC: 0.705, 95% CI: 0.639–0.772) and revised Mayo model (AUC: 0.706, 95% CI: 0.640–0.772) (P < 0.001). Then the prediction model was presented as a nomogram, which is easier to generalize.Conclusions:After external verification and recalibration of the Mayo model, the results show that they are not suitable for the prediction of malignant pulmonary nodules in the Chinese population. Therefore, a new model was established by a backward stepwise process. The new model was constructed to rapidly discriminate benign from malignant pulmonary nodules, which could achieve accurate diagnosis of potential patients with lung cancer.