The Economic Value of Innovative Treatments over the Product Life Cycle: The Case of Targeted Trastuzumab Therapy for Breast Cancer

ObjectivePharmacoeconomic analyses typically project the expected cost-effectiveness of a new product for a specific indication. This analysis develops a dynamic life-cycle model to conduct a multiindication evaluation using the case of trastuzumab licensed in the United States for both early-stage and metastatic (or late-stage) human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive breast cancer therapy (early breast cancer [EBC]; metastatic breast cancer [MBC]), approved in 2006 and 1998, respectively.MethodsThis dynamic model combined information on expected incremental cost-utility ratios for specific indications with an epidemiologically based projection of utilization by indication over the product life cycle—from 1998 to 2016. Net economic value was estimated as the cumulative quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained over the life cycle multiplied by a societal valuation of health gains ($/QALY) minus cumulative net direct treatment costs. Sensitivity analyses were performed under a range of assumptions.ResultsWe projected that the annual number of EBC patients receiving trastuzumab will be more than three times that of MBC by 2016, in part because adjuvant treatment reduces the future incidence of MBC. Over this life cycle, the estimated overall incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was $35,590/QALY with a total of 432,547 discounted QALYs gained. Under sensitivity analyses, the overall ICER varied from $21,000 to $53,000/QALY, and the projected net economic value resulting from trastuzumab treatment ranged from $6.2 billion to $49.5 billion.ConclusionsAverage ICERs for multiindication compounds can increase or decrease over the product life cycle. In this example, the projected overall life-cycle ICER for trastuzumab was less than one half of that in the initial indication. This dynamic perspective—versus the usual static one—highlights the interdependence of drug development decisions and investment incentives, raising important reimbursement policy issues.     

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Pertuzumab With Trastuzumab and Chemotherapy Compared to Trastuzumab and Chemotherapy in the Adjuvant Treatment of HER2-Positive Breast Cancer in the United States

Objective

The APHINITY trial assessed the effectiveness and the safety of adding pertuzumab to trastuzumab and chemotherapy (THP) compared to trastuzumab and chemotherapy (TH) in the adjuvant management of human epidermal growth factor 2-positive (HER2+) breast cancer. We performed a study to project the potential cost-effectiveness of THP vs. TH.

Estimated Life-Years Saved in Women with HER2-Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer Receiving First-Line Trastuzumab and Pertuzumab in the United States

BackgroundHER2 positive (HER2+) metastatic breast cancer (MBC) is associated with high mortality. Trastuzumab was approved for use in 1998, but the life-years saved from first-line use are unknown, as are the potential US population benefits from adding pertuzumab.ObjectivesThe first aim was to estimate the number of life-years saved by using first-line trastuzumab between 1999 and 2013 in HER2+ women with MBC. In addition, based on these estimates, the second aim was to project the life-years that could be saved by adding pertuzumab to trastuzumab in first-line therapy.MethodsWe constructed a simulation model accounting for incidence, testing rates, therapy utilization, and overall survival. The model was run for 1999 to 2013 (15 years) to estimate the life-years saved from using trastuzumab plus chemotherapy instead of chemotherapy alone. The model was also run from 2013 to 2027 (15 years) to project the life-years that might be saved by adding pertuzumab. Uncertainty was incorporated using Monte-Carlo methods.ResultsThe estimated number of women with HER2+ MBC varied over time, with the peak of 9700 in 2005 and the low of 7700 in 2018. The cumulative incremental life-years saved because of first-line trastuzumab use from 1999 to 2013 was estimated to be 156,413 (95% simulation interval 114,840–195,201). The projection for pertuzumab from 2013 to 2027 was 137,959 (95% simulation interval 56,011–225,069). Exploratory analyses of value showed that pertuzumab, trastuzumab, and chemotherapy is associated with a $1.10 billion gain compared with chemotherapy alone, and adding pertuzumab is associated with a $0.06 billion gain compared with trastuzumab with chemotherapy.ConclusionsThis simulation model suggests that substantial progress has been made in treating HER2+ women over the past 15 years, and the future may witness similar gains with the introduction of pertuzumab.     

Cost-Effectiveness of Ivacaftor Therapy for Treatment of Cystic Fibrosis Patients With the G551D Gating Mutation

ObjectivesCystic fibrosis (CF) is a rare genetic disease with no cure. Until recently, treatment has targeted symptoms of the disease and not the disease-causing genetic defect. Ivacaftor is included in a new class of breakthrough drugs targeting the genetic defects of CF. We sought to estimate the long-term cost-effectiveness of ivacaftor from a US payer perspective.MethodsWe developed an individual-level microsimulation model that followed a cohort of heterogeneous US CF patients over a lifetime. The primary outcome of interest was quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). We also compared unadjusted life years, count of acute pulmonary exacerbations, and count of lung transplants over a lifetime between patients treated with ivacaftor plus best supportive care and patients treated with best supportive care alone. We conducted one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses to test the impact of various model inputs and uncertainties.ResultsWe found a substantial increase in QALYs, life years, and treatment costs over a lifetime for patients treated with ivacaftor plus best supportive care versus best supportive care alone. Discounted results for ivacaftor were 22.92 QALYs and $8 797 840 in total lifetime costs compared to 16.12 QALYs and $2 336 366 lifetime costs for best supportive care alone. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were $950 217 per QALY. Results from the probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated a 0% chance that ivacaftor was cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $500 000 per QALY.ConclusionsTreatment with ivacaftor plus best supportive care versus best supportive care alone is not cost-effective at or near commonly accepted WTP thresholds.     

Cost-effectiveness of lapatinib plus capecitabine in women with HER2+ metastatic breast cancer who have received prior therapy with trastuzumab

Background

In a phase III trial of women with HER2+ metastatic breast cancer (MBC) previously treated with trastuzumab, an anthracycline, and taxanes (EGF100151), lapatinib plus capecitabine (L?+?C) improved time to progression (TTP) versus capecitabine monotherapy (C-only). In a trial including HER2+ MBC patients who had received at least one prior course of trastuzumab and no more than one prior course of palliative chemotherapy (GBG 26/BIG 03-05), continued trastuzumab plus capecitabine (T?+?C) also improved TTP.

Methods

An economic model using patient-level data from EGF100151 and published results of GBG 26/BIG 03-05 as well as other literature were used to evaluate the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year [QALY] gained with L?+?C versus C-only and versus T?+?C in women with HER2+ MBC previously treated with trastuzumab from the UK National Health Service (NHS) perspective.

Results

Expected costs were ￡28,816 with L?+?C, ￡13,985 with C-only and ￡28,924 with T?+?C. Corresponding QALYs were 0.927, 0.737 and 0.896. In the base case, L?+?C was estimated to provide more QALYs at a lower cost compared with T?+?C; cost per QALY gained was ￡77,993 with L?+?C versus C-only. In pairwise probabilistic sensitivity analyses, the probability that L?+?C is preferred to C-only was 0.03 given a threshold of ￡30,000. The probability that L?+?C is preferred to T?+?C was 0.54 regardless of the threshold.

Conclusions

When compared against capecitabine alone, the addition of lapatinib has a cost-effectiveness ratio exceeding the threshold normally used by NICE. Compared with T?+?C, L?+?C is dominant in the base case and approximately equally likely to be cost-effective in probabilistic sensitivity analyses over a wide range of threshold values.     

Comparing the Cost-Effectiveness of Rituximab Maintenance and Radioimmunotherapy Consolidation versus Observation Following First-Line Therapy in Patients with Follicular Lymphoma

BackgroundPhase 3 randomized trials have shown that maintenance rituximab (MR) therapy or radioimmunotherapy (RIT) consolidation following frontline therapy can improve progression-free survival for patients with follicular lymphoma (FL), but the cost-effectiveness of these approaches with respect to observation has not been examined using a common modeling framework.ObjectivesTo evaluate and compare the economic impact of MR and RIT consolidation versus observation, respectively, following the first-line induction therapy for patients with advanced-stage FL.MethodsWe developed Markov models to estimate patients’ lifetime costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and life-years (LYs) after MR, RIT, and observation following frontline FL treatment from the US payer’s perspective. Progression risks, adverse event probabilities, costs, and utilities were estimated from clinical data of Primary RItuximab and MAintenance (PRIMA) trial, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) trial (for MR), and First-line Indolent Trial (for RIT) and the published literature. We evaluated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for direct comparisons between MR/RIT and observation. Model robustness was addressed by one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.ResultsCompared with observation, MR provided an additional 1.089 QALYs (1.099 LYs) and 1.399 QALYs (1.391 LYs) on the basis of the PRIMA trial and the ECOG trial, respectively, and RIT provided an additional 1.026 QALYs (1.034 LYs). The incremental cost per QALY gained was $40,335 (PRIMA) or $37,412 (ECOG) for MR and $40,851 for RIT. MR and RIT had comparable incremental QALYs before first progression, whereas RIT had higher incremental costs of adverse events due to higher incidences of cytopenias.ConclusionsMR and RIT following frontline FL therapy demonstrated favorable and similar cost-effectiveness profiles. The model results should be interpreted within the specific clinical settings of each trial. Selection of MR, RIT, or observation should be based on patient characteristics and expected trade-offs for these alternatives.     

Cost-Effectiveness of Tepotinib Versus Capmatinib for the Treatment of Adult Patients With Metastatic Non–Small Cell Lung Cancer Harboring Mesenchymal–Epithelial Transition Exon 14 Skipping

ObjectivesFrom the US Medicare perspective, this study compared the cost-effectiveness of tepotinib and capmatinib for treating metastatic non–small cell lung cancer with tumors harboring mesenchymal–epithelial transition factor gene exon 14 skipping.MethodsA 3-state partitioned survival model assessed outcomes over a lifetime horizon. Parametric survival analysis of the phase 2 VISION trial informed clinical inputs for tepotinib. Capmatinib inputs were captured using hazard ratios derived from an unanchored matching-adjusted indirect comparison study and published literature. National cost databases, trial data, and literature furnished drug, treatment monitoring, and disease/adverse event management expenditures (2021 US dollars) and utility inputs. Outcomes were discounted at 3% annually.ResultsIn the base case, tepotinib dominated capmatinib in frontline settings (incremental discounted quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs] and costs of 0.2127 and −$47 756, respectively) while realizing an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $274 514/QALY in subsequent lines (incremental QALYs and costs of 0.3330 and $91 401, respectively). In a line agnostic context, tepotinib produced an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $105 383/QALY (incremental QALYs and costs of 0.2794 and $29 447, respectively). Sensitivity and scenarios analyses for individual lines typically supported the base case, whereas those for the line agnostic setting suggested sensitivity to drug acquisition costs and efficacy inputs.ConclusionsTepotinib could be cost-effective versus capmatinib in frontline and line agnostic contexts, considering the range of willingness-to-pay thresholds recommended by the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review ($100 000-$150 000/QALY). Tepotinib could be cost-effective in subsequent lines at higher willingness-to-pay levels. These results are to be interpreted cautiously, considering uncertainty in key model inputs.     

An Economic Evaluation of Adjuvant Trastuzumab Therapy in HER2-Positive Early Breast Cancer

Objective:  One-year adjuvant trastuzumab therapy increases disease-free and overall survival in the adjuvant treatment of early HER2-positive breast cancer. This study aims to assess the long-term cost-effectiveness of adjuvant trastuzumab treatment in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou.
Methods:  A Markov health-state transition model was constructed to simulate the natural development of breast cancer based on HERceptin Adjuvant (HERA) trial, estimate costs and disease progression over a lifetime perspective with annual transition cycles, and evaluate the cost-effectiveness of 1-year adjuvant trastuzumab treatment group compared with the standard adjuvant chemotherapy. From the perspective of a China health insurance system, cost was calculated based on a survey from clinical expert panels.
Results:  On the basis of HERA data, the model results showed that the utilization of adjuvant trastuzumab treatment in early breast cancer can prolong 2.87 life years, compared with the standard chemotherapy group. The incremental cost for an additional life-year gained (LYG) was US$7564, US$7933, and US$7929 in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, respectively. If measured by quality-adjusted life-year, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was US$7676, US$8049, and US$8046, respectively.
Conclusion:  The results suggest that the 1-year adjuvant trastuzumab treatment is cost-effective. Both clinical and economic benefits were superior for the 1-year adjuvant trastuzumab treatment group compared with the standard adjuvant chemotherapy group.     

Long-term Health and Economic Impact of Preventing and Reducing Overweight and Obesity in Adolescence

PurposeUsing data from the 2000 National Medical Expenditure Panel Survey and estimates from published studies, this study projected the long-term health and economic impacts of preventing and reducing overweight and obesity in today's adolescents.MethodsWe developed a body mass index progression model to project the impact of a 1% point reduction in both overweight and obese adolescents aged 16–17 years at present on the number of nonoverweight, overweight, and obese adults at age 40 years. We then estimated its impact on the lifetime medical costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) after age 40. Medical costs (in 2007 dollars) and QALYs were discounted to age 17 years.ResultsA 1% point reduction in both overweight and obese adolescents ages 16–17 years at present could reduce the number of obese adults by 52,821 in the future. As a result, lifetime medical care costs after age 40 years would decrease by $586 million and lifetime QALYs would increase by 47,138. In the worst case scenario, the 1% point reduction would lower medical costs by $463 million and increase QALYs by 34,394; in the best case scenario, it would reduce medical costs by $691 million and increase QALYs by 57,149.ConclusionsObesity prevention in adolescents goes beyond its immediate benefits; it can also reduce medical costs and increase QALYs substantially in later life. Therefore, it is important to include long-term health and economic benefits when quantifying the impact of obesity prevention in adolescents.     

Cost-Effectiveness of Chemotherapy for Breast Cancer and Age Effect in Older Women

BackgroundPrevious economic evaluations compared specific chemotherapy agents using input parameters from clinical trials and resource utilization costs. Cost-effectiveness of treatment groups (drug classes) using community-level effectiveness and cost data, however, has not been assessed for elderly patients with breast cancer.ObjectiveTo assess the cost-effectiveness of chemotherapy regimens by age and disease stage under “real-world” conditions for patients with breast cancer.MethodsThe Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results-Medicare data were used to identify patients with breast cancer with American Joint Committee on Cancer stage I/II/IIIa, hormone receptor–negative (estrogen receptor–negative and progesterone receptor–negative) patients from 1992 to 2009. Patients were categorized into three adjuvant treatment groups: 1) no chemotherapy, 2) anthracycline, and 3) non–anthracycline-based chemotherapy. Median life-years and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were measured using Kaplan-Meier analysis and were evaluated against average total health care costs (2013 US dollars).ResultsA total of 4575 patients (propensity score–matched) were included for the primary analysis. The anthracycline group experienced 12.05 QALYs and mean total health care costs of $119,055, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $7,688 per QALY gained as compared with the no chemotherapy group (QALYs 7.81; average health care cost $86,383). The non–anthracycline-based group was dominated by the anthracycline group with lower QALYs (9.56) and higher health care costs ($122,791). Base-case results were found to be consistent with the best-case and worst-case scenarios for utility assignments. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios varied by age group (range $3,790–$90,405 per QALY gained).ConclusionsAnthracycline-based chemotherapy was found cost-effective for elderly patients with early stage (stage I, II, IIIa) breast cancer considering the US threshold of $100,000 per QALY. Further research may be needed to characterize differential effects across age groups.     

Cost-effectiveness analysis of strategies for HER2 testing of breast cancer patients in France

OBJECTIVES: A cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted comparing diagnostic strategies for determining the HER2 status of invasive breast carcinomas, as an indication for trastuzumab at metastatic relapse. METHODS: A decision tree compared five strategies distinguished by (i) the use of immunohistochemical (IHC) and/or fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) techniques, and (ii) the test schedule (at initial diagnosis or metastatic relapse). Most cost and effectiveness data came from a French multicentric study of 2,045 patients from eight hospitals. We were not able to select final criteria for trastuzumab effectiveness, because published data rely on IHC techniques not used in France (i.e., HercepTest). We, therefore, selected two intermediate criteria for inappropriate treatment at relapse, that is, patients with HER2-amplified tumors not receiving trastuzumab (Criterion 1) and HER2-nonamplified tumors improperly treated with trastuzumab (Criterion 2). Sensitivity analyses were then performed to assess the robustness of the results to (i) discount rate, (ii) cost of FISH, and (iii) tissue fixation technique. RESULTS: The strategy using IHC at diagnosis was dominated by the four other strategies. Among these approaches, the only efficient strategy for both criteria was IHC used alone at metastatic relapse; strategies using FISH, or IHC followed by FISH on IHC2+ cases were efficient for Criterion 1, whereas IHC followed by FISH on IHC2+ and 3+ cases was efficient for Criterion 2. CONCLUSIONS: Determining HER2 status at diagnosis, as an indication for trastuzumab at metastatic relapse, incurs substantial incremental costs, which do not appear to be justified. No other strategy can be excluded at first.     

The Cost-Utility of Sequential Adjuvant Trastuzumab in Women with Her2/Neu-Positive Breast Cancer: An Analysis Based On Updated Results from the HERA Trial

Background:  The efficacy of sequential adjuvant trastuzumab (aTZ) after chemotherapy in women with early-stage human epidermal growth factor-2 (HER2/neu)-positive breast cancer reported by the updated Herceptin Adjuvant (HERA) trial appears less favorable than originally reported. Based on these updated results, we estimated the cost-utility (CU) of sequential aTZ relative to chemotherapy alone in terms of incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained.
Methods:  A Markov model estimated incremental costs and outcomes of 12 months of aTZ after adjuvant chemotherapy in women with HER2/neu-positive breast cancer over a 25-year horizon. The model incorporated four broad health states (disease-free, local recurrence [LCR], distant recurrence [DCR], death), stratified with or without symptomatic cardiotoxicity. Baseline event rates and 3-year relative risk (RR = 0.75) were derived from the HERA trial. As the duration of the benefit remains uncertain, the analysis considered 5-year and 3-year duration of benefit in two scenarios. Costs and utility weights were from the literature. The analysis took a direct payer perspective, with costs reported in 2007 Canadian dollars. Costs and QALYs were discounted by 3% annually.
Results:  The mean CU of sequential aTZ at a 25-year horizon was $72,292 per QALY gained in the 5-year scenario and $127,862 per QALY gained in the 3-year scenario. Results were particularly sensitive to the magnitude and duration of carryover benefit.
Conclusions:  The CU of sequential aTZ is primarily dependent on the magnitude and duration of benefit. Further clinical research is required to establish the optimum sequence and duration of aTZ therapy and clarify the magnitude and duration of treatment benefit.     

Assessing the Value of Cemiplimab for Adults With Advanced Cutaneous Squamous Cell Carcinoma: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

ObjectivesTo evaluate the cost-effectiveness of cemiplimab in patients with advanced cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (CSCC) from a payer perspective in the United States.MethodsA partitioned survival model was developed to assess the cost-effectiveness of cemiplimab versus historical standard of care (SOC). All inputs were identified based on a systematic literature review, supplemented by expert opinion where necessary. Clinical inputs for cemiplimab were based on individual patient data from a cemiplimab phase 2 single-arm trial (NCT27060498). For SOC, analysis was based on a pooled analysis of single-arm clinical trials and retrospective studies evaluating chemotherapy and epidermal growth factor receptor inhibitors (cetuximab, erlotinib, and gefitinib) identified via a systematic literature review (6 of the 27 included studies). Overall survival and progression-free survival were extrapolated over a lifetime horizon. Costs were included for drug acquisition, drug administration, management of adverse events, subsequent therapy, disease management, and terminal care. Unit costs were based on published 2019 US list prices.ResultsIn the base case, cemiplimab versus SOC resulted in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $99 447 per quality adjusted-life year (QALY), where incremental costs and QALYs were $372 108 and 3.74, respectively. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of $150 000/QALY, the probabilistic sensitivity analysis suggests a 90% probability that cemiplimab is cost-effective compared to SOC. Scenario analyses resulted in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios ranging from $90 590 to $148 738.ConclusionsCompared with historical SOC, cemiplimab is a cost-effective use of US payer resources for the treatment of advanced CSCC and is expected to provide value for money.     

A New Type 2 Diabetes Microsimulation Model to Estimate Long-Term Health Outcomes,Costs, and Cost-Effectiveness

ObjectivesThis study aimed to develop a microsimulation model to estimate the health effects, costs, and cost-effectiveness of public health and clinical interventions for preventing/managing type 2 diabetes.MethodsWe combined newly developed equations for complications, mortality, risk factor progression, patient utility, and cost—all based on US studies—in a microsimulation model. We performed internal and external validation of the model. To demonstrate the model’s utility, we predicted remaining life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and lifetime medical cost for a representative cohort of 10 000 US adults with type 2 diabetes. We then estimated the cost-effectiveness of reducing hemoglobin A1c from 9% to 7% among adults with type 2 diabetes, using low-cost, generic, oral medications.ResultsThe model performed well in internal validation; the average absolute difference between simulated and observed incidence for 17 complications was < 8%. In external validation, the model was better at predicting outcomes in clinical trials than in observational studies. The cohort of US adults with type 2 diabetes was projected to have an average of 19.95 remaining life-years (from mean age 61), incur $187 729 in discounted medical costs, and accrue 8.79 discounted QALYs. The intervention to reduce hemoglobin A1c increased medical costs by $1256 and QALYs by 0.39, yielding an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $9103 per QALY.ConclusionsUsing equations exclusively derived from US studies, this new microsimulation model achieves good prediction accuracy in US populations. The model can be used to estimate the long-term health impact, costs, and cost-effectiveness of interventions for type 2 diabetes in the United States.     

Transferability of Model-Based Economic Evaluations: The Case of Trastuzumab for the Adjuvant Treatment of HER2-Positive Early Breast Cancer in the Netherlands

IntroductionGeographic transferability of model-based cost–effectiveness results may facilitate and shorten the reimbursement process of new pharmaceuticals. This study provides a real world example of transferring a cost–effectiveness study of trastuzumab for the adjuvant treatment of HER2-positive early breast cancer from the United Kingdom to The Netherlands.MethodsThree successive steps were taken. Step 1: Collect available information with regard to the original model, and assess transferability using existing checklists. Step 2: Adapt transferability-limiting factors. Step 3: Obtain a country-specific estimate of cost–effectiveness.ResultsThe structure of the UK model was transferable, although some of the model inputs needed adaptation. From a health-care perspective, the Dutch estimate amounted to €5828/quality-adjusted life-year gained. From a societal perspective, the incremental cost–effectiveness ratio was dominant.ConclusionTransferability of a model-based UK-study in three steps proved to be an efficient method to provide an early indication of the cost–effectiveness of trastuzumab and has led to the provisional reimbursement of the treatment.     

CDX2 Biomarker Testing and Adjuvant Therapy for Stage II Colon Cancer: An Exploratory Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

ObjectivesAdjuvant chemotherapy is not recommended for patients with average-risk stage II (T3N0) colon cancer. Nevertheless, a subgroup of these patients who are CDX2-negative might benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of testing for the absence of CDX2 expression followed by adjuvant chemotherapy (fluorouracil combined with oxaliplatin [FOLFOX]) for patients with stage II colon cancer.MethodsWe developed a decision model to simulate a hypothetical cohort of 65-year-old patients with average-risk stage II colon cancer with 7.2% of these patients being CDX2-negative under 2 different interventions: (1) test for the absence of CDX2 expression followed by adjuvant chemotherapy for CDX2-negative patients and (2) no CDX2 testing and no adjuvant chemotherapy for any patient. We derived disease progression parameters, adjuvant chemotherapy effectiveness and utilities from published analyses, and cancer care costs from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare data. Sensitivity analyses were conducted.ResultsTesting for CDX2 followed by FOLFOX for CDX2-negative patients had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $5500/quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) compared with no CDX2 testing and no FOLFOX (6.874 vs 6.838 discounted QALYs and $89 991 vs $89 797 discounted US dollar lifetime costs). In sensitivity analyses, considering a cost-effectiveness threshold of $100 000/QALY, testing for CDX2 followed by FOLFOX on CDX2-negative patients remains cost-effective for hazard ratios of <0.975 of the effectiveness of FOLFOX in CDX2-negative patients in reducing the rate of developing a metastatic recurrence.ConclusionsTesting tumors of patients with stage II colon cancer for CDX2 and administration of adjuvant treatment to the subgroup found CDX2-negative is a cost-effective and high-value management strategy across a broad range of plausible assumptions.     

Cost-Effectiveness of the Wellness Incentives and Navigation (WIN) Program

ObjectivesPromoting patient involvement in managing co-occurring physical and mental health conditions is increasingly recognized as critical to improving outcomes and controlling costs in this growing chronically ill population. The main objective of this study was to conduct an economic evaluation of the Wellness Incentives and Navigation (WIN) intervention as part of a longitudinal randomized pragmatic clinical trial for chronically ill Texas Medicaid enrollees with co-occurring physical and mental health conditions.MethodsThe WIN intervention used a personal navigator, motivational interviewing, and a flexible wellness expense account to increase patient activation, that is, the patient’s knowledge, skills, and confidence in managing their self-care and co-occurring physical and mental health conditions. Regression models were fit to both participant-level quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and total costs of care (including the intervention) controlling for demographics, health status, poverty, Medicaid managed care plan, intervention group, and baseline health utility and costs. Incremental costs and QALYs were calculated based on the difference in predicted costs and QALYs under intervention versus usual care and were used to calculate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Confidence intervals were calculated using Fieller’s method, and sensitivity analyses were performed.ResultsThe mean ICER for the intervention compared with usual care was $12 511 (95% CI $8971-$16 842), with a sizable majority of participants (70%) having ICERs below $40 000. The WIN intervention also produced higher QALY increases for participants who were sicker at baseline compared to those who were healthier at baseline.ConclusionThe WIN intervention shows considerable promise as a cost-effective intervention in this challenging chronically ill population.     

Trastuzumab for the treatment of HER2-positive metastatic adenocarcinoma of the stomach or gastro-oesophageal junction

This paper presents a summary of the evidence review group (ERG) report into trastuzumab for the treatment of human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive metastatic adenocarcinoma of the stomach (mGC) or gastro-oesophageal junction. HER2 positivity is defined by immunohistochemistry (IHC)3+ or IHC2+/fluorescence in situ hybridisation (FISH)+. The decision problem addressed was the testing of the whole mGC population with IHC and, for IHC2+ patients, also with FISH, followed by treatment of HER2-positive patients with trastuzumab combined with cisplatin and either capecitabine or 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) [HCX (trastuzumab, cisplatin, capecitabine)/fluorouracil (F)] compared with current standard NHS therapy. The manufacturer's submission contained direct evidence from the ToGA trial, a well-conducted, multinational, phase III randomised controlled trial (RCT) that compared HCX/F with cisplatin and a fluoropyrimidine alone [cisplatin, capecitabine (CX)/F]. HCX/F showed statistically significantly better overall survival in the European Medicines Agency-licensed population subgroup (74%) (hazard ratio 0.65, 95% confidence interval 0.51 to 0.83), corresponding to median survival of 16 months versus 11.8 months. No other evidence exists for the efficacy of any therapy in a known HER2-positive mGC population; other comparisons extrapolate from trials in mixed HER2 status populations. The ERG accepted the manufacturer's view that a meaningful network meta-analysis to establish a comparison for HCX/F compared with current standard NHS therapy [epirubicin, cisplatin, capecitabine (ECX)/epirubicin, oxaliplatin, capecitabine (EOX)/epirubicin, cisplatin, 5-FU (ECF)] was not possible, but was unconvinced by arguments advanced in the alternative narrative synthesis. These involved disregarding evidence from a meta-analysis and interpreting non-significant results of small RCTs comparing epirubicin-containing triplets with cisplatin, 5-FU (CF)/capecitabine (X) doublets as evidence of no difference between triplet and doublet regimens. The high CX/F dose in the ToGA trial was an additional basis for the contention of equivalence. An appropriate de novo economic evaluation, including an economic model that separately compared HCX or trastuzumab, cisplatin, 5-FU (HCF) with the triplet regimens ECX, EOX and ECF, based on a simple, three-state cohort model (progression-free, disease, progression and death), was submitted. Utility weights were applied to estimate quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Costs were assessed from an NHS perspective, and incorporated the acquisition and monitoring costs of the alternative regimens, HER2 testing, adverse events and other supportive care costs. An 8-year time horizon was used to represent a lifetime analysis. Results from the ToGA trial were combined with a series of assumptions on relative treatment effects and testing strategies. The manufacturer's results produced an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of ￡ 53,010 per QALY for HCX versus ECX. Although the manufacturer undertook a detailed set of sensitivity analyses, several alternative model assumptions were not evaluated. The ERG undertook a series of alternative base-case analyses. As a result of these analyses, EOX replaced ECX as the appropriate comparator, and the ICER for the comparison of HCX vs EOX increased to between ￡ 66,982 and ￡ 71,636 per QALY. The impact of implementation of alternative testing strategies remained unclear. There is also considerable uncertainty surrounding the true estimate of effectiveness for the comparison between triplet regimens containing epirubicin (ECX/ECF/EOX) and doublet CX/F regimens. Consequently, the view of the ERG was that there is insufficient evidence on the efficacy of HCX/F compared with current NHS standard therapy for an ICER to be determined with any degree of certainty.     

Cost and Quality of Life Outcomes of the STepped Exercise Program for Patients With Knee OsteoArthritis Trial

ObjectivesThis study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the randomized clinical trial STEP-KOA (STepped Exercise Program for patients with Knee OsteoArthritis).MethodsThe trial included 230 intervention and 115 control participants from 2 Veterans Affairs (VA) medical centers. A decision tree simulated outcomes for cohorts of patients receiving arthritis education (control) or STEP-KOA (intervention), which consisted of an internet-based exercise training program (step 1), phone counseling (step 2), and physical therapy (step 3) according to patient’s response. Intervention costs were assessed from the VA perspective. Quality of life (QOL) was measured using 5-level EQ-5D US utility weights. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated as the difference in costs divided by the difference in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) between arms at 9 months. A Monte Carlo probabilistic sensitivity analysis was used to generate a cost-effectiveness acceptability curve.ResultsThe adjusted model found differential improvement in QOL utility weights of 0.042 (95% confidence interval 0.003-0.080; P=.03) for STEP-KOA versus control at 9 months. In the base case, STEP-KOA resulted in an incremental gain of 0.028 QALYs and an incremental cost of $279 per patient for an ICER of $10 076. One-way sensitivity analyses found the largest sources of variation in the ICER were the impact on QOL and the need for a VA-owned tablet. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis found a 98% probability of cost-effectiveness at $50 000 willingness-to-pay per QALY.ConclusionsSTEP-KOA improves QOL and has a high probability of cost-effectiveness. Resources needed to implement the program will decline as ownership of mobile health devices increases.