HIV incidence among people who inject drugs in the Middle East and North Africa: mathematical modelling analysis

Introduction

Emerging HIV epidemics have been documented among people who inject drugs (PWID) in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). This study estimates the HIV incidence among PWID due to sharing needles/syringes in MENA. It also delineates injecting drug use role as a driver of the epidemic in the population, and estimates impact of interventions.

Methods

A mathematical model of HIV transmission among PWID was applied in seven MENA countries with sufficient and recent epidemiological data and HIV prevalence ≥1% among PWID. Estimations of incident and/or prevalent infections among PWID, ex‐PWID and sexual partners of infected current and ex‐PWID were conducted.

Results

The estimated HIV incidence rate for 2017 among PWID ranged between 0.7% per person‐year (ppy) in Tunisia and 7.8% ppy in Pakistan, with Libya being an outlier (24.8% ppy). The estimated number of annual new infections was lowest in Tunisia (n = 79) and Morocco (n = 99), and highest in Iran and Pakistan (approximately n = 6700 each). In addition, 20 to 2208 and 5 to 837 new annual infections were estimated across the different countries among sexual partners of PWID and ex‐PWID respectively. Since epidemic emergence, the number of total ever acquired incident infections across countries was 706 to 90,015 among PWID, 99 to 18,244 among sexual partners of PWID, and 16 to 4360 among sexual partners of ex‐PWID. The estimated number of prevalent infections across countries was 341 to 23,279 among PWID, 119 to 16,540 among ex‐PWID, 67 to 10,752 among sexual partners of PWID, and 12 to 2863 among sexual partners of ex‐PWID. Increasing antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage to the global target of 81% – factoring in ART adherence and current coverage – would avert about half of new infections among PWID and their sexual partners. Combining ART with harm reduction could avert over 90% and 70% of new infections among PWID and their sexual partners respectively.

Conclusions

There is considerable HIV incidence among PWID in MENA. Of all new infections ultimately due to injecting drug use, about 75% are among PWID and the rest among sexual partners. Of all prevalent infections ultimately attributed to injecting drug use as epidemic driver, about half are among PWID, 30% among ex‐PWID and 20% among sexual partners of PWID and ex‐PWID. These findings call for scale‐up of services for PWID, including harm reduction as well as testing and treatment services.

     

Clinical utility of HCV core antigen detection and quantification using serum samples and dried blood spots in people who inject drugs in Dar‐es‐Salaam,Tanzania

Introduction : A lack of access to hepatitis C virus (HCV) diagnostics is a significant barrier to achieving the World Health Organization 2030 global elimination goal. HCV core antigen (HCVcAg) quantification and dried blood spot (DBS) are appealing alternatives to conventional HCV serology and nucleic acid testing (NAT) for resource‐constraint settings, particularly in difficult‐to‐reach populations. We assessed the accuracy of serum and DBS HCVcAg testing in people who inject drugs in Tanzania using HCV NAT as a reference. Method : Between May and July 2015, consecutive HCV‐seropositive patients enrolled in the local opioid substitution treatment centre were invited to participate in the study. All had HCV RNA detection (Roche Molecular Systems, Pleasanton, CA, USA), genotyping (NS5B gene phylogenetic analysis) and HCVcAg on blood samples and DBS (Architect assay; Abbott Diagnostics, Chicago, IL, USA). Results : Out of 153 HCV‐seropositive individuals, 65 (42.5%) and 15 (9.8%) were co‐infected with HIV (41 (63%) were on anti‐retroviral therapy (ARVs)) and hepatitis B respectively. In total, 116 were viraemic, median viral load of 5.7 (Interquartile range (IQR); 4.0–6.3) log iU/ml (75 (68.2%) were genotype 1a, 35 (31.8%) genotype 4a). The median alanine transaminase (ALT) (iU/l), aspartate transaminase (AST) (iU/l) and gamma‐glutamyl transferase (GGT) (iU/l) were 35 (IQR; 23–51), 46 (32–57) and 69 (35–151) respectively. For the quantification of HCV RNA, serum HCVcAg had a sensitivity at 99.1% and a specificity at 94.1%, with an area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) at 0.99 (95% CI 0.98–1.00). DBS HCVcAg had a sensitivity of 76.1% and a specificity of 97.3%, with an AUROC of 0.87 (95% CI 0.83–0.92). HCVcAg performance did not differ by HIV co‐infection or HCV genotype. Conclusions : Our study suggests that HCVcAg testing in serum is an excellent alternative to HCV polymerase chain reaction in Africa. Although HCVcAg detection and quantification in DBS has a reduced sensitivity, its specificity and accuracy are good and it could therefore be used for scaling up HCV testing and care in resource‐limited African settings.     

When patients fail UNAIDS’ last 90 ‐ the “failure cascade” beyond 90‐90‐90 in rural Lesotho,Southern Africa: a prospective cohort study

Introduction : HIV‐infected individuals on first‐line antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource‐limited settings who do not achieve the last “90” (viral suppression) enter a complex care cascade: enhanced adherence counselling (EAC), repetition of viral load (VL) and switch to second‐line ART aiming to achieve resuppression. This study describes the “failure cascade” in patients in Lesotho. Methods : Patients aged ≥16 years on first‐line ART at 10 facilities in rural Lesotho received a first‐time VL in June 2014. Those with VL ≥80 copies/mL were included in a cohort. The care cascade was assessed at four points: attendance of EAC, result of follow‐up VL after EAC, switch to second‐line in case of sustained unsuppressed VL and outcome 18 months after the initial unsuppressed VL. Multivariate logistic regression was used to assess predictors of being retained in care with viral resuppression at follow‐up. Results : Out of 1563 patients who underwent first‐time VL, 138 (8.8%) had unsuppressed VL in June 2014. Out of these, 124 (90%) attended EAC and 116 (84%) had follow‐up VL (4 died, 2 transferred out, 11 lost, 5 switched to second‐line before follow‐up VL). Among the 116 with follow‐up VL, 36 (31%) achieved resuppression. Out of the 80 with sustained unsuppressed VL, 58 were switched to second‐line, the remaining continued first line. At 18 months’ follow‐up in December 2015, out of the initially 138 with unsuppressed VL, 56 (41%) were in care and virally suppressed, 37 (27%) were in care with unsuppressed VL and the remaining 45 (33%) were lost, dead, transferred to another clinic or without documented VL. Achieving viral resuppression after EAC (adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 5.02; 95% confidence interval: 1.14–22.09; p = 0.033) and being switched to second‐line in case of sustained viremia after EAC (aOR: 7.17; 1.90–27.04; p = 0.004) were associated with being retained in care and virally suppressed at 18 months of follow‐up. Age, gender, education, time on ART and level of VL were not associated. Conclusions : In this study in rural Lesotho, outcomes along the “failure cascade” were poor. To improve outcomes in this vulnerable patient group who fails the last “90”, programmes need to focus on timely EAC and switch to second line for cases with continuous viremia despite EAC.     

HIV treatment outcomes among people who acquired HIV via injecting drug use in the Asia‐Pacific region: a longitudinal cohort study

INTRODUCTIONData on HIV treatment outcomes in people who inject drugs (PWID) in the Asia‐Pacific are sparse despite the high burden of drug use. We assessed immunological and virological responses, AIDS‐defining events and mortality among PWID receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART).METHODSWe investigated HIV treatment outcomes among people who acquired HIV via injecting drug use in the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (TAHOD) between January 2003 and March 2019. Trends in CD4 count and viral suppression (VS, HIV viral load <1000 copies/mL) were assessed. Factors associated with mean CD4 changes were analysed using repeated measures linear regression, and combined AIDS event and mortality were analysed using survival analysis.RESULTSOf 622 PWID from 12 countries in the Asia‐Pacific, 93% were male and the median age at ART initiation was 31 years (IQR, 28 to 34). The median pre‐ART CD4 count was 71 cells/µL. CD4 counts increased over time, with a mean difference of 401 (95% CI, 372 to 457) cells/µL at year‐10 (n = 78). Higher follow‐up HIV viral load and pre‐ART CD4 counts were associated with smaller increases in CD4 counts. Among 361 PWID with ≥1 viral load after six months on ART, proportions with VS were 82%, 88% and 93% at 2‐, 5‐ and 10‐years following ART initiation. There were 52 new AIDS‐defining events and 50 deaths during 3347 person‐years of follow‐up (PYS) (incidence 3.05/100 PYS, 95% CI, 2.51 to 3.70). Previous AIDS or TB diagnosis, lower current CD4 count and adherence <95% were associated with combined new AIDS‐defining event and death.CONCLUSIONSDespite improved outcomes over time, our findings highlight the need for rapid ART initiation and adherence support among PWID within Asian settings.     

Peer community health workers improve HIV testing and ART linkage among key populations in Zambia: retrospective observational results from the Z‐CHECK project, 2019–2020

IntroductionZambia has made tremendous progress towards HIV epidemic control; however, gaps remain among key populations (KPs), such as female sex workers (FSWs), men who have sex with men (MSM), people who inject drugs (PWID) and people in prisons and enclosed settings due to cultural, social and legal barriers. The University of Maryland, Baltimore Zambia Community HIV Epidemic Control for Key Populations (Z‐CHECK) project aimed to improve HIV case‐finding, linkage and treatment adherence at the community level for KPs in Zambia. We describe Z‐CHECK strategies and examine HIV positivity yield and antiretroviral therapy (ART) linkage among KPs to inform ongoing programme improvement.MethodsZ‐CHECK recruited, trained and deployed peer community health workers (CHWs) for KP groups, with ongoing mentorship in community engagement. CHWs offered HIV testing in safe spaces and escorted newly HIV‐diagnosed clients for same‐day ART initiation. Z‐CHECK also reached out to KP community leaders and gatekeepers for KP mobilization and trained healthcare workers (HCWs) on KP services and sensitivity. We conducted a retrospective observational review of routinely collected aggregate data for KPs aged ≥15 years at high risk for HIV transmission across five districts in Zambia from January 2019 to December 2020.ResultsZ‐CHECK provided HIV testing for 9211 KPs, of whom 2227 were HIV positive (positivity yield, 24%). Among these, 1901 (85%) were linked to ART; linkage for MSM, FSW, PWID and people in prisons and enclosed settings was 95%, 89%, 86% and 65%, respectively. Programme strategies that contributed to high positivity yield and linkage included the use of peer KP CHWs, social network testing strategies and opportunities for same‐day ART initiation. Challenges to programme implementation included stigma and discrimination among HCWs, as well as KP CHW attrition, which may be explained by high mobility.ConclusionsPeer CHWs were highly effective at reaching KP communities, identifying persons living with HIV and linking them to care. Engaging KP community gatekeepers resulted in high diffusion of health messages and increased access to health resources. The mobility of CHWs and HCWs is a challenge for programme implementation. Innovative interventions are needed to support PWID and people in prisons and enclosed settings.