Value of information analysis for a new technology: computer-assisted total knee replacement

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to demonstrate how value of information analysis can measure the upper limit on returns to future research and identify the research priorities for computer-assisted total knee replacement (CAS-TKR). METHODS: Using a previous economic analysis of CAS-TKR compared with conventional TKR, the population expected value of perfect information (EVPI) was calculated using Monte Carlo simulation to provide an estimate of the upper limit on returns to future research. The population expected value of partial perfect information (EVPPI) for both individual parameters and groups of parameters was estimated to inform specific future research priorities. RESULTS: The UK individual EVPI would be pound21.4 if the willingness to pay for one QALY (quality-adjusted life-year) were pound30,000. The population EVPPI would be pound8.3 million, assuming a 10-year time horizon for CAS-TKR. In this instance, the expected value of information is positively related to willingness to pay for one QALY for the range of pound0 to pound50,000. Although each individual parameter had an EVPPI of pound0, groups of utility parameters had positive EVPPI. Population EVPPI was pound5.6 million for utility parameters, pound20,000 for transition probabilities relating to CAS-TKR, and pound5,000 for transition probabilities related to conventional TKR. CONCLUSIONS: The study provides evidence on which parameters further information may be of most value. Focusing research on the utility values associated with health states relating to TKR would be of greatest value.     

Influenza treatment with neuraminidase inhibitors

We assessed the cost-effectiveness and cost-utility of treating influenza with neuraminidase inhibitors (oseltamivir and zanamivir) from a health care payers and societal perspective in the United Kingdom. A simulation model was developed to predict morbidity and mortality due to influenza and its specified complications, comparing neuraminidase inhibitors with usual care in an otherwise healthy adult population. Robustness of the results was tested by one-way and multiway as well as probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Treatment with either neuraminidase inhibitor results in reduced morbidity and faster return to normal activities. However, oseltamivir dominates zanamivir in cost-utility analysis due to its lower costs. Comparing oseltamivir with usual care, the costs are £14.36 per day of normal activity gained and £5,600 per quality-adjusted life-year gained from the healthcare payer perspective. Oseltamivir dominates usual care from the societal perspective. Treatment with oseltamivir is a cost-effective strategy for otherwise healthy adults in the UK from both the healthcare payer and societal perspective.     

Cost-effectiveness of adding oseltamivir to primary care for influenza-like-illness: economic evaluation alongside the randomised controlled ALIC4E trial in 15 European countries

Background

Oseltamivir is usually not often prescribed (or reimbursed) for non-high-risk patients consulting for influenza-like-illness (ILI) in primary care in Europe. We aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of adding oseltamivir to usual primary care in adults/adolescents (13 years +) and children with ILI during seasonal influenza epidemics, using data collected in an open-label, multi-season, randomised controlled trial of oseltamivir in 15 European countries.

Methods

Direct and indirect cost estimates were based on patient reported resource use and official country-specific unit costs. Health-Related Quality of Life was assessed by EQ-5D questionnaires. Costs and quality adjusted life-years (QALY) were bootstrapped (N = 10,000) to estimate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER), from both the healthcare payers’ and the societal perspectives, with uncertainty expressed through probabilistic sensitivity analysis and expected value for perfect information (EVPI) analysis. Additionally, scenario (self-reported spending), comorbidities subgroup and country-specific analyses were performed.

Results

The healthcare payers’ expected ICERs of oseltamivir were €22,459 per QALY gained in adults/adolescents and €13,001 in children. From the societal perspective, oseltamivir was cost-saving in adults/adolescents, but the ICER is €8,344 in children. Large uncertainties were observed in subgroups with comorbidities, especially for children. The expected ICERs and extent of decision uncertainty varied between countries (EVPI ranged €1–€35 per patient).

Conclusion

Adding oseltamivir to primary usual care in Europe is likely to be cost-effective for treating adults/adolescents and children with ILI from the healthcare payers’ perspective (if willingness-to-pay per QALY gained > €22,459) and cost-saving in adults/adolescents from a societal perspective.

     

Probabilistic cost-effectiveness analysis of the treatment of sleep apnea

OBJECTIVE: To describe the application of a probabilistic cost-effectiveness analysis to nasal continuous positive airway passage (nCPAP) treatment of obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS). MATERIAL AND METHODS: The probabilistic model was constructed from a discrete Markov model. This probabilistic approach is characterized by the introduction of variables as probability distributions. The model performed 2,000 Monte Carlo simulations, and incremental costs and effectiveness were calculated in each. The results were analyzed through the cost-effectiveness plane, the acceptability curve, the net benefit rule, and the expected value of perfect information (EVPI). RESULTS: The mean cost-effectiveness ratio for nCPAP treatment was 5,480 Euro/QALY (quality-adjusted life year). Using an acceptability threshold of 30,000 Euro/QALY, the probabilistic analysis showed that nCPAP was the optimal treatment in 98.5% of the simulations. The EVPI showed that the parameter causing greatest uncertainty in the final results was the quality of life gain through nCPAP treatment. CONCLUSIONS: The results of our probabilistic analysis are endorsed by previous deterministic studies confirming that nCPAP treatment of OSAS is the most cost-effective strategy. An additional advantage of probabilistic analysis is that it allows uncertainty to be quantified; in the present case the probability of making the wrong decision was below 5%. Furthermore, this study reveals that to reduce uncertainty, research should center on improving information on quality of life.     

Comparison of the cost-effectiveness of infliximab in the treatment of ankylosing spondylitis in the United Kingdom based on two different clinical trials

OBJECTIVES: To compare the cost-effectiveness of the treatment of ankylosing spondylitis (AS) with infliximab in the United Kingdom over lifetime estimated from two different clinical trials and adjusted for clinical practice guidelines. METHODS: A cost-effectiveness model was developed to incorporate clinical, epidemiological, and economic data and allow extrapolation of trial results and incorporation of long-term treatment. Assumptions regarding treatment beyond the trials were based on open extensions from the trials and treatment guidelines by the British Society for Rheumatology. Results are presented for both the societal perspective and the perspective of the National Health Service (UK pound, discounted 3.5 percent). RESULTS: Under the assumption that disease activity would be controlled and functional capacity would remain stable while on drug, treatment with infliximab (5 mg/kg every 6 weeks) dominates standard treatment in the societal perspective. In the National Health Service perspective, the cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained over lifetime was pound28,300 and pound26,800 for the two trials. If functional capacity were to deteriorate at half the rate of untreated patients, the cost per QALY gained would be pound35,300 and pound34,100, respectively. The results are sensitive to the dosing regimen adopted, the discontinuation rate, and assumptions concerning disease progression while on treatment. CONCLUSIONS: The two clinical trials yield the same cost-effectiveness results and the cost per QALY gained with treatment was found to be in the acceptable range.     

The cost-effectiveness of vaccinating pregnant women against seasonal influenza in England and Wales

We assessed the cost-effectiveness of vaccinating pregnant women against seasonal influenza in England and Wales, taking into account the timing of vaccination relative to both the influenza season and trimester of pregnancy. Women were assumed to be vaccinated in their second or third trimester. Vaccination between September and December was found to have an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £23,000 per quality adjusted life year (QALY) (95% CI £10,000-£140,000) if it is assumed that infants are partially protected through their mothers, and of £28,000 per QALY gained (95% CI £13,000-£200,000) if infants are not protected. If some vaccine protection lasts for a second season, then the ratio is only £15,000 per QALY gained (95% CI £6,000-£93,000). Most of the benefit of vaccination is in preventing symptomatic episodes, regardless of health care resource use. Extending vaccination beyond December is unlikely to be cost-effective unless there is good protection into a second influenza season. Key sources of uncertainty are the cost of vaccine delivery and the quality of life detriment due to a clinically apparent episode of confirmed influenza. The cost of vaccine purchase itself is relatively low.     

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Oseltamivir for Influenza Treatment Considering the Virus Emerging Resistant to the Drug in Japan

Aim:  The purpose of this study is to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of oseltamivir for influenza in Japan considering the complications and the emergence of oseltamivir-resistant virus.
Methods:  Study design is a cost-effectiveness analysis in decision analytic modeling based on previously published evidence. Outcome measures included costs and quality-adjusted life year (QALY).
Results and Conclusion:  In the base-case analysis, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of oseltamivir during influenza and complications was JPY398,571 ($3320) per QALY without productivity loss, which implied oseltamivir is evidently cost-effective. Furthermore, considering the productivity loss, the ICER for oseltamivir turned to be negative, which means simply dominant. When the prevalence was in the low range of 10% to 38%, oseltamivir became less cost-effective than conventional treatment. Regarding potential emergence of the drug-resistant virus, we found the dominance of oseltamivir will vanish if the emerging rate becomes larger than 27%. The two-way sensitivity analysis also suggested that if the resistant virus rate becomes less and the prevalence higher, then oseltamivir becomes more advantageous. The analysis for uncertainty, using cost-effectiveness acceptability curve by Monte Carlo simulation, resulted in the estimate of about 80% chance that oseltamivir could be cost-effective at the willingness-to-pay level of JPY6,000,000 ($50,000), which is commonly accepted as an affordable threshold.     

The Cost-Effectiveness of Group Cognitive Behavioral Therapy Compared with Routine Primary Care for Women with Postnatal Depression in the UK

ObjectiveTo assess the cost-effectiveness of group cognitive behavior therapy (gCBT) in comparison with routine primary care for women with postnatal depression in the UK.MethodsOur analysis was based on a systematic literature review of the relative clinical effectiveness of gCBT compared with routine primary care and further reviews, supplemented with expert opinion of the likely cost of providing gCBT and the duration of comparative advantage for gCBT. Raw data were used to estimate a statistical relationship between changes in the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Score (EPDS) values and changes in short-form six dimensions' (SF-6D) values. A mathematical model was constructed, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were undertaken to estimate the mean cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) and to evaluate the expected value of perfect information (EVPI).ResultsThe mean cost per QALY from the stochastic analysis was estimated to be £36,062; however, there was considerable uncertainty around this value. The EVPI was estimated to be greater than £64 million; the key uncertainties were in the cost per woman of providing treatment and in the statistical relationship between changes in EPDS values and changes in SF-6D values. The expected value of perfect partial information for both of these parameters was in excess of £25 million.ConclusionsGiven the current information, the use of gCBT does not appear to be cost-effective; however, this decision is uncertain. The value of information analyses conducted indicates that further research to provide robust information on key parameters is needed and appears justified in cost-effective terms.     

Economic evaluation of laparoscopic surgery for colorectal cancer

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of laparoscopic surgery compared with open surgery for the treatment of colorectal cancer. METHODS: A Markov model was developed to model cost-effectiveness over 25 years. Data on the clinical effectiveness of laparoscopic and open surgery for colorectal cancer were obtained from a systematic review of the literature. Data on costs came from a systematic review of economic evaluations and from published sources. The outcomes of the model were presented as the incremental cost per life-year gained and using cost-effectiveness acceptability curves to illustrate the likelihood that a treatment was cost-effective at various threshold values for society's willingness to pay for an additional life-year. RESULTS: Laparoscopic surgery was on average pounds 300 more costly and slightly less effective than open surgery and had a 30 percent chance of being cost-effective if society is willing to pay pounds 30,000 for a life-year. One interpretation of the available data suggests equal survival and disease-free survival. Making this assumption, laparoscopic surgery had a greater chance of being considered cost-effective. Presenting the results as incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) made no difference to the results, as utility data were poor. Evidence suggests short-term benefits after laparoscopic repair. This benefit would have to be at least 0.01 of a QALY for laparoscopic surgery to be considered cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS: Laparoscopic surgery is likely to be associated with short-term quality of life benefits, similar long-term outcomes, and an additional pounds 300 per patient. A judgment is required as to whether the short-term benefits are worth this extra cost.     

Is further research on adult pneumococcal vaccine uptake improvement programs worthwhile? Α value of information analysis

BackgroundPneumococcal vaccination policy for US adults is evolving, but previous research has shown that programs to increase vaccine uptake are economically favorable, despite parameter uncertainty. Using value of information (VOI) analysis and prior analyses, we examine the value of further research on vaccine uptake program parameters.MethodsIn US 50–64-year-olds, current vaccine recommendations with and without an uptake program were analyzed. In older adults, current recommendations and an alternative strategy (polysaccharide vaccine for all, adding conjugate vaccine only for the immunocompromised) with and without uptake programs were examined. Uptake program parameters were derived from a clinical trial (absolute uptake increase 12.3% [range 0–25%], per-person cost $1.78 [range $0.70–$2.26]), with other parameters obtained from US databases. VOI analyses incorporated probabilistic sensitivity analysis outputs into R-based regression techniques.ResultsIn 50–64-year-olds, an uptake program cost $54,900/QALY gained compared to no uptake program. For ages ≥65, the program cost $287,000/QALY gained with the alternative strategy and $765,000/QALY with current recommendations. In younger adults, population-level expected value of perfect information (EVPI) was $59.7 million at $50,000/QALY gained and $2.8 million at $100,000/QALY gained. In older adults, EVPI values ranged from ~$1 million to $34.5 million at $100,000 and $200,000/QALY thresholds. The population expected value of partial perfect information (EVPPI) for combined uptake program cost and uptake improvement parameters in the younger population was $368,700 at $50,000/QALY and $43,900 at $100,000/QALY gained thresholds. In older adults, population EVPPI for vaccine uptake program parameters was $0 at both thresholds, reaching a maximum value of $445,000 at a $225,000/QALY threshold. Other model parameters comprised larger components of the global EVPI.ConclusionVOI results do not support further research on pneumococcal vaccine uptake programs in adults at commonly cited US cost-effectiveness benchmarks. Further research to reduce uncertainty in other aspects of adult pneumococcal vaccination is justifiable.     

Cost-Effectiveness and Value of Information of Erlotinib,Afatinib, and Cisplatin-Pemetrexed for First-Line Treatment of Advanced EGFR Mutation-Positive Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer in the United States

ObjectivesTo determine the cost-effectiveness of tyrosine kinase inhibitors erlotinib or afatinib, or chemotherapy cisplatin-pemetrexed, for first-line treatment of advanced epithelial growth factor receptor mutation-positive non–small-cell lung cancer in the United States. We also assessed the expected benefit of further research to reduce uncertainty regarding which treatment is optimal.MethodsWe developed a Markov model to compare the cost-effectiveness of erlotinib, afatinib, and cisplatin-pemetrexed. Model transition and adverse-effect probabilities were from two published phase III trials: EURTAC (Erlotinib versus standard chemotherapy as first-line treatment for European patients with advanced EGFR mutation-positive non-small-cell lung cancer) and LUX-Lung (Afatinib versus cisplatin-based chemotherapy for EGFR mutation-positive lung adenocarcinoma) 3. EURTAC survival estimates were corrected for patients entering the trial with more severe disease, compared with LUX-Lung 3. Health utilities and costs were from national estimates or the published literature. Inputs were modeled as distributions for probabilistic sensitivity analysis and expected value of perfect information (EVPI) analysis to estimate the expected benefit of reducing uncertainty regarding the decision of optimal treatment.ResultsIn the base case, both tyrosine kinase inhibitors were more cost-effective than cisplatin-pemetrexed. Erlotinib had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $61,809/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) compared with afatinib. The acceptability curve showed that erlotinib was the optimal treatment at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000/QALY (10-year population EVPI = $85.9 million). At a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000/QALY to $70,000/QALY (EVPI = $211.5 million–$261.8 million), however, there was considerable uncertainty whether erlotinib or afatinib was the optimal treatment.ConclusionsOur analysis suggests that erlotinib is the preferred first-line treatment for advanced epithelial growth factor receptor mutation-positive non–small-cell lung cancer. Further research comparing erlotinib and afatinib is potentially justified, although accurate data are needed on the required cost and sample size of the trial.     

Intra-operative vs pre-operative endoscopic sphincterotomy in patients with gallbladder and common bile duct stones

Background

Patients with gallbladder and common bile duct stones are generally treated by pre-operative endoscopic sphincterotomy (ES) followed by laparoscopic cholecystectomy (POES). Recently, a meta-analysis has shown that intra-operative ES during laparoscopic cholecystectomy (IOES) results in fewer complications than POES, with similar efficacy. The cost effectiveness of IOES versus POES is unknown.

Objective

The objective of this study was to compare the cost effectiveness of IOES versus POES from the UK NHS perspective.

Methods

A decision-tree model estimating and comparing costs to the UK NHS and QALYs gained following a policy of either IOES or POES was developed with a time horizon of 3 years. Uncertainty was investigated with probabilistic sensitivity analysis, and the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) and partial information (EVPPI) were also calculated.

Results

IOES was less costly than POES (approximately ???623 per patient [year 2008 values]) and resulted in similar quality of life (+0.008 QALYs per patient) as POES. Given a willingness-to-pay threshold of ??20 000 per QALY gained, there was a 92.9% probability that IOES is cost effective compared with POES. Full implementation of IOES could save the NHS ??2.8 million per annum. At a willingness to pay of ??20 000 per QALY gained, the 10-year population EVPI was estimated at ??0.6 million.

Conclusions

IOES appears to be cost effective compared with POES.     

Cost-Effectiveness of Sorafenib for Second-Line Treatment of Advanced Renal Cell Carcinoma

Objectives:  To estimate the cost-effectiveness of sorafenib (Nexavar, Bayer, Leverkusen, Germany) versus best supportive care (BSC) for second-line treatment of advanced renal cell carcinoma from the perspective of the UK National Health Service.
Methods:  A decision analytic model was developed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of sorafenib. The clinical effectiveness of sorafenib versus BSC was taken from a recent randomized phase III trial. Utility values were taken from a phase II trial of sunitinib, using EQ-5D tariffs. Cost data were obtained from published literature and were based on current UK practice. The effect of parameter uncertainty on cost-effectiveness was explored through extensive one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.
Results:  Compared to BSC, sorafenib treatment resulted in an incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained of £75,398, based on an estimated mean gain of 0.27 QALYs per patient, at a mean additional cost of £20,063 (inflated to 2007/2008). The probability that sorafenib is cost-effective compared to BSC at a willingness to pay threshold of £30,000 per QALY is 0.0%. In sensitivity analysis, estimates of cost per QALY were sensitive to changes in the clinical effectiveness parameters, and to health state utilities and drug costs.
Conclusions:  Sorafenib has been shown to be clinically effective compared to BSC, offering additional health benefits; however, with a cost per QALY in excess of £70,000, it may not be regarded as a cost-effective use of resources in some health-care settings.     

Uncertainty in Decision-Making: Value of Additional Information in the Cost-Effectiveness of Lifestyle Intervention in Overweight and Obese People

Objectives:  To quantify the uncertainty in the cost-effectiveness of lifestyle intervention versus standard care in overweight and obese people in Switzerland and to determine if further research is necessary based on current information. There has been an increasing interest in using value of information analysis in medical decision-making to quantify the uncertainty in decision-making, and to identify the need for further research.
Methods:  Value of information analysis was applied on a probabilistic cost-effectiveness model to evaluate the uncertainty by calculating the patient expected value of perfect information (EVPI), population EVPI, and partial EVPI. The costs were expressed in Swiss Francs (CHF), price year 2006.
Results:  Overall, the EVPI was higher in overweight than in obese people. The maximum population EVPI was CHF 6.8 million in overweight people and CHF 3.2 million in moderate obese people, representing the upper limit on costs associated with decision uncertainty. The partial EVPI estimated a higher uncertainty in the model parameters such as utilities, body mass index, cardiovascular risk factors, and systolic blood pressure in overweight and moderate obese subjects.
Conclusions:  The EVPI analysis indicates that there is some uncertainty regarding the choice between lifestyle intervention and standard care. The parameter EVPI suggests that if further research is commissioned, this should focus on the effectiveness of lifestyle intervention on cardiovascular risk factors and utilities.     

Adjuvant HPV vaccination for anal cancer prevention in HIV-positive men who have sex with men: The time is now

ImportanceOutcomes of treating high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL), a precursor to anal cancer, remain uncertain. Emerging evidence shows that post HSIL treatment adjuvant quadrivalent human papillomavirus (qHPV) vaccination improves the effectiveness of treatment. However, no recommendations exist regarding the use of qHPV vaccine as an adjuvant form of therapy. Our objective was to determine whether post-treatment adjuvant vaccination should be adopted in HIV-infected MSM (individuals at highest risk for anal cancer) on the basis of cost-effectiveness determined using existing evidence or whether future research is needed.MethodsWe developed a Markov (state-transition) cohort model to assess the cost-effectiveness of post-treatment adjuvant HPV vaccination of 27 years or older HIV-infected MSM. We first estimated cost-effectiveness and then performed value-of-information (VOI) analysis to determine whether future research is required by estimating the expected value of perfect information (EVPI). We also estimated expected value of partial perfect information (EVPPI) to determine what new evidences should have highest priority.ResultsWith the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $71,937/QALY, “treatment plus vaccination” was the most cost-effective HSIL management strategy using the willingness-to-pay threshold of 100,000/QALY. We found that population-level EVPI for conducting future clinical research evaluating HSIL management approaches was US$12 million (range $6–$20 million). The EVPPI associated with adjuvant qHPV vaccination efficacy estimated in terms of hazards of decreasing HSIL recurrence was $0 implying that additional data from a future study evaluating efficacy of adjuvant qHPV vaccination will not change our policy conclusion that “treatment plus vaccination” was cost-effective. Both the ICER and EVPI were sensitive to HSIL treatment compliance.ConclusionPost-treatment adjuvant qHPV vaccination in HIV-infected MSM aged 27 or above is likely to be cost-effective. Use of adjuvant qHPV vaccination could be considered as a potential strategy to reduce rising anal cancer burden among these high-risk individuals.     

Identifying research priorities: the value of information associated with repeat screening for age-related macular degeneration

The authors report an analysis that was developed as part of a pilot study examining the use of decision analysis and value-of-information methods to inform research prioritization decisions for the UK health care system. This analysis was conducted to inform decision makers whether additional research on screening for age-related macular degeneration (AMD) would be worthwhile and to demonstrate the benefits and feasibility of using such analytic methods to inform policy decision within the time-lines demanded by existing procedures. A probabilistic decision model was developed to establish the cost-effectiveness of a policy of repeat screening for AMD using the Amsler grid followed by treatment with photodynamic therapy (PDT) compared with 2 alternatives: PDT without screening (self-referral) and no screening or treatment. Screening for AMD appears to be cost-effective on the basis of existing evidence; however, the decision to implement a policy of screening is somewhat uncertain, with a probability that screening is cost-effective of 0.87 and 0.72 for the 20/40 and 20/80 models, respectively, at a threshold of 30,000 pounds per quality-adjusted life-year. The expected value of perfect information (EVPI) associated with this decision is substantial (6.9 million pounds for the 20/40 model and 14.5 million pounds for the 20/80 model), with a sizeable EVPI associated with the effect of PDT on quality of life. The analysis demonstrates that EVPI analysis can be implemented in a timely fashion to inform the type of research prioritization decisions faced by any health care system. This case study also illustrates the need to account for any structural uncertainties appropriately.     

Cost-effectiveness of antiviral stockpiling and near-patient testing for potential influenza pandemic

A decision analytical model was developed to investigate the cost-effectiveness of stockpiling antiviral (AV) drugs for a potential influenza pandemic in the United Kingdom and the possible role of near-patient testing in conserving AV drug stocks. Under base-case assumptions (including a fixed stockpile that was smaller than the clinical attack rate), the treat-only option (treating all symptomatic patients with AV drugs) would be considered cost-effective ( pound1,900- pound13,700 per quality-adjusted life year [QALY] gained, depending on the fatality scenario), compared with no intervention (nonintervention but management of cases as they arise). The test-treat option (testing all symptomatic patients but treating those with positive tests results only) would result in moderate gains in QALYs over the treat-only option but at relatively large additional costs. Stockpiling sufficient AV drugs (but not near-patient tests) to treat all patients with clinical cases would be cost-effective, provided AV drugs are effective at preventing deaths from pandemic influenza.     

Cost-Effectiveness of Temsirolimus for First Line Treatment of Advanced Renal Cell Carcinoma

ObjectivesTo estimate the cost-effectiveness of temsirolimus compared to interferon-α for first line treatment of patients with advanced, poor prognosis renal cell carcinoma, from the perspective of the UK National Health Service.MethodsA decision-analytic model was developed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of temsirolimus. The clinical effectiveness of temsirolimus compared with interferon-α and the utility values (using EQ-5D tariffs) were taken from a recent phase III randomized clinical trial. Cost data were obtained from published literature and based on current UK practice. The effect of parameter uncertainty on cost-effectiveness was explored through extensive one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.ResultsCompared to interferon-α, temsirolimus treatment resulted in an incremental cost per QALY gained of £94,632; based on an estimated mean gain of 0.24 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) per patient, at a mean additional cost of £22,331 (inflated to 2007/8). The cost per QALY for patient subgroups ranged from £74,369 to £154,752. The probability that temsirolimus is cost-effective compared to interferon-α at a willingness to pay threshold of £30,000 per QALY for all patient groups is expected to be close to zero. The cost per QALY was sensitive to the clinical effectiveness parameters, health state utilities, drug costs and the cost of administration of temsirolimus.ConclusionsTemsirolimus has been shown to be clinically effective compared to interferon-α offering additional health benefits, however, with a cost per QALY in excess of £90,000, it may not be regarded as a cost-effective use of resources in some health care settings.     

The Cost-Effectiveness of Lanthanum Carbonate in the Treatment of Hyperphosphatemia in Patients with End-Stage Renal Disease

OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost-effectiveness of lanthanum carbonate (LC) as a second-line therapy for hyperphosphatemia in end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients not achieving target phosphorus levels. METHODS: A cohort of ESRD patients not adequately maintained on calcium carbonate (CC) and three subgroups of patients with baseline phosphorus levels of 5.6 to 6.5 mg/dl, 6.6 to 7.8 mg/dl, and more than 7.9 mg/dl were modeled. The following policy options were considered: continued CC (Policy 1); LC trial-if successful continue LC, if unsuccessful switch to CC (Policy 2). The survival benefit of using second-line LC to improve phosphorus control has been extrapolated from the relationship between hyperphosphatemia and mortality. Lifetime UK National Health Service drug and monitoring costs, expected survival, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were examined (discounting at 3.5% per annum). RESULTS: Policy 2 had a cost-effectiveness ratio (cost/QALY) of pound25,033 relative to Policy 1. The results show it is particularly cost-effective to treat patients with phosphorus levels above 6.6 mg/dl. The outcomes did not vary significantly during the one-way sensitivity analysis carried out on important model parameters and assumptions except when the utility value for ESRD was decreased by more than 30%. CONCLUSIONS: Applying a cost-effectiveness threshold of pound30,000 per QALY, the model shows it is cost-effective to follow current treatment guidelines and treat all patients who are not adequately maintained on CC (serum phosphorus above 5.6 mg/dl) with second-line LC. This is particularly the case for patients with serum phosphorus above 6.6 mg/dl. Our estimates are probably conservative as the possible compliance difference in favor of LC and the reduced number of hypercalcemic events with LC relative to CC was not considered.     

Die Nutzung von Informationswertanalysen in Entscheidungen über angewandte Forschung

Public decision makers face demands to invest in applied research in order to accelerate the adoption of new genetic tests. However, such an investment is profitable only if the results gained from further investigations have a significant impact on health care practice. An upper limit for the value of additional information aimed at improving the basis for reimbursement decisions is given by the expected value of perfect information (EVPI). This study illustrates the significance of the concept of EVPI on the basis of a probabilistic cost-effectiveness model of screening for hereditary hemochromatosis among German men. In the present example, population-based screening can barely be recommended at threshold values of 50,000 or 100,000?Euro per life year gained and also the value of additional research which might cause this decision to be overturned is small: At the mentioned threshold values, the EVPI in the German public health care system was ca. 500,000 and 2,200,000?Euro, respectively. An analysis of EVPI by individual parameters or groups of parameters shows that additional research about adherence to preventive phlebotomy could potentially provide the highest benefit. The potential value of further research also depends on methodological assumptions regarding the decision maker's time horizon as well as on scenarios with an impact on the number of affected patients and the cost-effectiveness of screening.