肝移植术后早期急性肺水肿14例临床相关因素分析

目的 探讨肝移植术后早期急性肺水肿的临床相关因素,为临床合理处理提供线索。方法观察我院行肝移植术后急性肺水肿14例患者的术前终末期肝病模型（MELD）评分、手术前后肾功能（尿量、血肌酐）的变化情况;记录移植术中及术后前3d总入量、总出量和液体平衡量。结果肝移植术后急性肺水肿患者（14例）术前MELD评分较非肺水肿组（127例）显著增高（P〈0．01）,且术后死亡率明显上升（P〈0．01）;急性肺水肿患者术前存在肾功能不全,术后血肌酐、尿量延迟恢复;术中、术后液体正平衡显著增加,与非肺水肿组差异均有统计学意义（P〈0．01）。结论肝移植术后早期急性肺水肿与术前高MELD分值、术前肾功能障碍、术后肾功能延迟恢复及术中大量输液、术后限液不足密切相关,术中、术后严格控制出入量平衡,尽快恢复患者肾功能及相关重要脏器支持是防止肝移植早期急性肺水肿的有效措施。     

Prioritization for liver transplantation

There are three possible policies for prioritization for liver transplantation: medical urgency, utility and transplant benefit. The first is based on the severity of cirrhosis, using Child-Turcotte-Pugh score and, more recently, the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, or variants of MELD, for allocation. Although prospectively developed and validated, the MELD score has several limitations, including interlaboratory variations for measurement of serum creatinine and international normalized ratio of prothrombin time, and a systematic adverse female gender bias. Adjustments to the original MELD equation and new scoring systems have been proposed to overcome these limitations; incorporation of serum sodium improves its predictive accuracy. The MELD score poorly predicts outcomes after liver transplantation due to the absence of donor factors incorporated into the scoring system. Several utility models are based on donor and recipient characteristics. Combined poor recipient and donor characteristics lead to very poor outcomes, which in a utility system would be considered unacceptable. Finally, transplant benefit models rank patients according to the net survival benefit that they would derive from transplantation. However, complex statistical models are required, and unmeasured characteristics may unduly affect the models. Well-designed prospective studies and simulation models are necessary to establish the optimal allocation system in liver transplantation.     

Enfermedad renal crónica en el trasplante hepático: evaluación de la función renal

Chronic kidney disease is one of the main comorbidities affecting liver transplant recipients. Most of those patients have some degree of acute or chronic kidney dysfunction at the time of transplantation, moreover they can also develop de novo chronic kidney disease once transplanted. An important increase in the incidence of chronic kidney disease in the «MELD era» has been observed. This phenomenon has partially been attributed to the weight that kidney function carries for organ allocation. In addition, the generalized use of calcineurin inhibitors has also been a contributing factor. It is of the utmost importance for us to be familiar with the current methods for evaluating kidney function before and after a liver transplantation. The two main biomarkers available today for that purpose are serum creatinine and cystatin C. Several equations have been derived from those biomarkers and have been tested in that context with mixed results, due to their biologic variability and the lack of standardization in their measurement. The gold standard continues to be the direct determination of the glomerular filtration rate through different methods; however, that is only done for research purposes. It is also essential to know the current classification of acute kidney injury and chronic kidney disease in order to make early diagnosis. The present review focuses on the recognition, diagnosis, and classification of chronic kidney disease and acute kidney injury in liver transplantation recipients.     

Beyond serum creatinine: which tools to evaluate renal function in cirrhotic patients?

In cirrhotic patients, a high serum creatinine value is an independent mortality factor. Similarly, it is predictive of renal insufficiency after liver transplantation. In these cases, chronic kidney disease is also an independent mortality factor. A relevant evaluation of glomerular filtration rate is crucial, particularly in cases of end‐stage liver disease or liver transplantation, and is key for the decision to undertake dual liver–kidney transplantation. Serum creatinine or creatinine‐based equations are the most used tools in clinical practice but they significantly overestimate renal function. Equilibrium inulin renal clearance remains the gold standard but is time consuming and expensive. Cystatin C and cystatin C‐based equations are less influenced by muscle mass or bilirubin value, but their dosage is not standardized and they are expensive. Pharmacological models using exogenous markers, new kidney biomarkers, Doppler coupled with ultrasounds, and kidney histology could be interesting tools but their indications need to be specified.     

Impact of creatinine values on MELD scores in male and female candidates for liver transplantation

Introduction. A systematic bias against women, resulting from the use of creatinine as a measure of renal function, has been identified in Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD)-based liver allocation. Correction of this bias by calculation of female creatinine levels using the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) formula has been suggested.Material and methods. A cohort of 639 cirrhotic candidates for first-time liver transplantation was studied. Creatinine levels were corrected for gender using the MDRD formula. The accuracy of MELD, with or without creatinine correction, to predict 3- and 6-month mortality after inclusion in a transplant waiting list was estimated.Results. Women exhibited significantly lower creatinine levels, glomerular filtration rate, and MELD scores than men. After creatinine correction, female MELD scores had a mean increase of 1.1 points. Creatinine correction yielded an increase of 3 points in the MELD score in 15.2% of patients, 2 points in 22.4%, and 1 point in 17.6% of patients. The likelihood of death at 3 and 6 months after enrollment in the transplant waiting list was similar in males and females and the likelihood of receiving a transplant, as assessed by Kaplan-Meier survival curves, was also similar in males and females.Conclusion. The survival or the likelihood of receiving a transplant while on the waiting list were similar in men and women in both pre- and post-MELD eras and creatinine correction did not increase the accuracy of the MELD score in estimating 3- and 6-month mortality in female candidates for liver transplantation.     

The impact of MELD allocation on simultaneous liver-kidney transplantation

Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) allocation has improved the process for ranking patients on the liver transplant list. One unintended consequence has been an increase in the number of simultaneous liver-kidney (SLK) transplants. Some have argued that the system unfairly advantages patients with kidney disease and that some kidneys are being prematurely placed in SLK transplantation. This review summarizes the MELD score, assessment of kidney function in cirrhosis, the impact of kidney function in liver disease, and changes in kidney function status in liver transplant recipients in the MELD era. Finally, recommendations regarding who should receive SLK transplants are reviewed.     

Selecting an optimal prognostic system for liver cirrhosis: the model for end‐stage liver disease and beyond

In comparison with the Child–Turcotte–Pugh (CTP) system, recent studies suggested that the model for end‐stage liver disease (MELD) may more accurately predict the survival for patients with cirrhosis. In the US, the liver allocation system was changed in 2002 from a status‐based algorithm utilizing CTP scores to one using continuous MELD severity scores as a reference system in prioritizing adult patients on the waiting list. Direct evidence that demonstrates the benefits of MELD is the fact that the mortality rates of transplant candidates on the waiting list have remarkably decreased after the implementation of the MELD. The MELD score is closely associated with the degree of portal hypertension as reflected by the hepatic venous pressure gradient. Hyponatraemia occurs as a result of advanced cirrhosis, and a serum sodium (Na) level <126 mEq/L at the time of listing for transplantation is a strong independent predictor of mortality. Several MELD‐derived prognostic models that incorporate serum Na into calculation have been proposed in the hopes of further improving the MELD's prognostic accuracy. Additionally, serum parameters such as creatinine and international normalized ratio are subject to interlaboratory variations and may need unifying standardizations. Patients with refractory complications of cirrhosis may need a priority MELD score to prioritize them on the waiting list. Appropriate modifications and the fine‐tuning of the MELD based on well‐designed prospective studies are necessary in solving the current controversial issues.     

Successful treatment of donor‐derived hepatitis C viral infection in three transplant recipients from a donor at increased risk for bloodborne pathogens

We report here the successful treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmitted from a nucleic acid testing (NAT)‐negative donor to three HCV‐negative recipients—two renal transplants and one liver. Both renal recipients underwent standard deceased‐donor renal transplantation with immediate graft function. The liver recipient underwent standard orthotopic liver transplantation and recovered uneventfully. The donor was a 39‐year‐old woman with a terminal serum creatinine of 0.7 mg/dL. She was high risk for bloodborne pathogens, based upon a history of sexual contact with an HCV‐infected male partner. Recipient 1 was a 45‐year‐old man with a history of end‐stage renal disease from systemic lupus erythematosus. Recipient 2 was a 62‐year‐old woman with a history of end‐stage renal disease caused by hypertension and insulin‐dependent diabetes. Recipient 3 was a 42‐year‐old man with acute liver failure from acetaminophen ingestion. All recipients became HCV polymerase chain reaction positive on post‐transplant follow‐up. Both kidney recipients were treated with ledipasvir/sofosbuvir combination therapy for 12 weeks without side effects or rejection episodes. Recipient 3 was treated with ledipasvir/sofosbuvir in combination with ribavirin for 12 weeks without side effects. All patients achieved a sustained viral response at 12 weeks and are considered cured of HCV. The kidney recipients maintained good allograft function with a serum creatinine of 1.4 mg/dL and 1.0 mg/dL, respectively. Both renal recipients maintained normal liver function post treatment and did not develop any evidence of fibrosis. The liver recipient's liver function tests returned to normal without further incident. This case report provides evidence for the successful treatment of donor‐derived HCV in transplant recipients.     

合并肾功能衰竭的肝移植患者接受肾脏替代治疗的价值

目的 回顾性分析合并急性肾功能衰竭的肝移植受体移植术前的危险因素,并探讨肾脏替代治疗(RRT)作为其移植前过渡治疗措施的价值. 方法收集2001年1月-2008年1月在卫生部移植医学工程技术研究中心由于急性肾功能衰竭而接受RRT的肝移植受体患者,依据不同预后对肝移植受体的临床特征进行分组对比分析;按接受不同RRT种类对肝移植受体的临床特征进行分组对比分析.用逻辑回归法分析能预测合并肾功能衰竭肝移植受体病死率的指标.对数据进行f检验、χ2检验、Logistic回归分析.结果 在接受RRT的患者中,有31.25%的患者因为肝移植而生存或者出院,68.75%的患者在等待移植期间死亡.死亡组患者与移植组相比,有更高的多器官功能障碍评分(4.98±2.32与4.45±2.02,P=0.008)、更低的平均动脉压[(56.5±7.1)mm Hg与(65.4±12.9)mm HgP=0.040;1 mm Hg=0.133 kPa].RRT的平均治疗天数在连续性肾脏替代治疗组和间歇血液透析组之间的差异没有统计学意义.与间歇血液透析组相比,连续性肾脏替代治疗组有更高的多器官功能障碍评分(4.82±2.12与3.45±1.91,P=0.040)、更低的平均动脉压[(56.0±14.2)mm Hg与(68.5±15.3)mm Hg,P=0.002]、更低的血清肌酐浓度[(320.12±185.15)μmol/L与(420.55±158.32)μmol/L,JP=0.008].肾功能衰竭受体术前平均动脉压越低,则死亡风险越高. 结论对患有急性肾功能衰竭的肝移植受体应用RRT是可取的.尽管病死率仍高,但可使部分患者得以肝移植而生存.     

Can inclusion of serum creatinine values improve the Child–Turcotte–Pugh score and challenge the prognostic yield of the model for end‐stage liver disease score in the short‐term prognostic assessment of cirrhotic patients?*

BACKGROUND: The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score is a useful tool to assess prognosis in critically ill cirrhotic patients. However, its short-term prognostic superiority over the traditional Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score has not been definitely confirmed. The creatinine serum level is an important predictor of survival in patients with liver cirrhosis. AIMS: To evaluate and compare the short-term prognostic accuracy of the CTP, the creatinine-modified CTP, and the MELD scores in patients with liver cirrhosis. METHODS: CTP, creatinine-modified CTP, and MELD scores were calculated in a cohort of 145 cirrhotic patients. The creatinine-modified CTP was calculated as follows: we assessed the mean creatinine serum level and standard deviation (SD) of the 145 study patients, then assigned a score of 1 to patients with creatinine serum levels < or = to the mean, a score of 2 to patients with creatinine levels between the mean and the mean+1 SD, and a score of 3 to patients with creatinine levels above the mean+1 SD. The creatinine-modified CTP was then calculated by simply adding each patients' creatinine score to their traditional CTP scores. We calculated and compared the accuracy (c-index) of the three parameters in predicting 3-month survival. RESULTS: The creatinine-modified CTP score showed better prognostic accuracy as compared with the traditional CTP (P=0.049). However, the MELD score proved to be better at defining patients' prognosis in the short-term as compared with both the traditional CTP score (P=0.012) and the creatinine-modified CTP (P=0.047). The excellent short-term prognostic accuracy of the MELD score was confirmed even when patients with abnormal creatinine serum levels were excluded from the analysis (c-index=0.935). CONCLUSIONS: Adding creatinine values to the CTP slightly improves the prognostic usefulness of the traditional CTP score alone. The MELD score has a short-term prognostic yield that is better than what is provided by both the CTP and CTP creatinine-modified scores, even in cirrhotic patients who are not critically ill. The positive results obtained by using the MELD score were confirmed even after excluding patients with impaired renal function.     

From Child-Pugh to MELD score and beyond: Taking a walk down memory lane

The Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) and the MELD (Model for End-Stage Liver Disease) scores were designed to predict the outcome of decompressive therapy for portal hypertension. They were prospectively validated to predict mortality risk in patients with a wide spectrum of liver disease etiology and severity. Unlike the CTP score, the MELD score was derived from prospectively gathered data. Its calculation was based on serum bilirubin, serum creatinine, international normalized ratio (INR) and etiology of liver disease. Instituting a continuous disease severity score that de-emphasizes waiting time resulted in better categorization of waiting patients and enhanced transparency. The US instituted the MELD system in 2002 and soon thereafter, MELD-based liver allocation was adopted throughout the world including Latin America. The most significant impact of MELD-based policies has been the reduction of waiting-list mortality. In the years after implementation of the MELD system, several options have been proposed to improve the MELD score's accuracy. Adding serum sodium (MELD-Na) increased the accuracy of the score in predicting waiting list mortality, thus completing the original MELD score as a prognostic model in liver allocation. On the 20th anniversary of the creation of MELD score we present a brief account of its development, its use to stratify patients on the waiting list for liver transplantation as well as its adoption as liver allocation system .     

Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and allocation of donor livers

BACKGROUND & AIMS: A consensus has been reached that liver donor allocation should be based primarily on liver disease severity and that waiting time should not be a major determining factor. Our aim was to assess the capability of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score to correctly rank potential liver recipients according to their severity of liver disease and mortality risk on the OPTN liver waiting list. METHODS: The MELD model predicts liver disease severity based on serum creatinine, serum total bilirubin, and INR and has been shown to be useful in predicting mortality in patients with compensated and decompensated cirrhosis. In this study, we prospectively applied the MELD score to estimate 3-month mortality to 3437 adult liver transplant candidates with chronic liver disease who were added to the OPTN waiting list at 2A or 2B status between November, 1999, and December, 2001. RESULTS: In this study cohort with chronic liver disease, 412 (12%) died during the 3-month follow-up period. Waiting list mortality increased directly in proportion to the listing MELD score. Patients having a MELD score <9 experienced a 1.9% mortality, whereas patients having a MELD score > or =40 had a mortality rate of 71.3%. Using the c-statistic with 3-month mortality as the end point, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for the MELD score was 0.83 compared with 0.76 for the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that the MELD score is able to accurately predict 3-month mortality among patients with chronic liver disease on the liver waiting list and can be applied for allocation of donor livers.     

Lebertransplantation

After around 64 000 transplantations in Europe since 1988 liver transplantation has emerged as a standard treatment option for otherwise incurable chronic liver diseases. Cirrhosis of different etiologies represents the most frequent transplant indication. Overall survival in this group amounts to 72% after 5 years, and 62% after 10 years. In Germany, the main indications include alcoholic liver cirrhosis, tumors with increasing numbers in recent years, as well as viral diseases leading to cirrhosis. Since December 2006 the priority for liver transplantation is determined by the model for end stage liver disease (MELD) and not by the length of waiting time. MELD is a statistical model based on serum creatinine, serum bilirubin and coagulation, which describes the probability of 3-month mortality of a potential transplant candidate. Not all liver diseases are adequately represented by MELD necessitating the additional use of a defined number of standard exceptions that have been last updated in 2008. As a consequence of these developments indications, selection of recipients and the management of the waiting list have seen profound change.     

Lebertransplantation im Zeitalter von MELD

Liver transplantation represents a standard treatment option for irreversible chronic liver diseases. It is characterized by a shortage of donor allografts as well as by an increasing overall number of transplantations and indications, which necessitates that rationing of this therapeutic option has to occur. Since December 2006, the priority for liver transplantation is determined by the model for end stage liver disease (MELD) and not by the length of waiting time. MELD is a statistical model based on serum creatinine, serum bilirubin and coagulation, which describes the probability of 3-month mortality of a potential transplant candidate for all potential indication groups. MELD is supplemented by accepted standard exceptional categories. MELD upgrades the role of priority and need before transplantation and has led to substantial changes of the management of liver transplantation, the spectrum of indications and of post-operative mortality. The establishment and implementation of robust, objective and transparent systems to assess not only pre-operative priority but also post-operative benefit represents a major challenge for transplantation medicine.     

The MELD score in patients awaiting liver transplant: strengths and weaknesses

Adoption of the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) to select and prioritize patients for liver transplantation represented a turning point in organ allocation. Prioritization of transplant recipients switched from time accrued on the waiting list to the principle of "sickest first". The MELD score incorporates three simple laboratory parameters (serum creatinine and bilirubin, and INR for prothrombin time) and stratifies patients according to their disease severity in an objective and continuous ranking scale. Concordance statistics have demonstrated its high accuracy in stratifying patients according to their risk of dying in the short-term (three months). Further validations of MELD as a predictor of survival at various temporal end-points have been obtained in independent patient cohorts with a broad spectrum of chronic liver disease. The MELD-based liver graft allocation policy has led to a reduction in waitlist new registrations and mortality, shorter waiting times, and an increase in transplants, without altering overall graft and patient survival rates after transplantation. MELD limitations are related either to the inter-laboratory variability of the parameters included in the score, or to the inability of the formula to predict mortality accurately in specific settings. For some conditions, such as hepatocellular carcinoma, widely accepted MELD corrections have been devised. For others, such as persistent ascites and hyponatremia, attempts to improve MELD's predicting power are currently underway, but await definite validation.     

Carboxyhemoglobin and its correlation to disease severity in cirrhotics

GOAL: To assess the correlation of serum carboxyhemoglobin (CO-Hb) to severity of liver disease as compared with Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, Child Pugh score, and clinical parameters. BACKGROUND: There are 2 sources of carbon monoxide (CO) in humans, exogenous sources include those such as tobacco smoke and inhaled motor vehicle exhaust. The endogenous source is via the heme-oxygenase pathway, in which a heme molecule is broken down into biliverdin with release of an iron (Fe) and CO molecule. Normal serum CO-Hb levels in nonsmokers is 0% to 1.5% and 4% to 9% in smokers. Activity of the heme-oxygenase pathway may be increased in the cirrhotic patient, as measured indirectly by exhaled CO and serum CO-Hb. This may be due to alterations in vascular tone in the splanchnic circulation in cirrhotics that may lead to elevated CO production. One published study also showed that those with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis had higher levels of both CO and CO-Hb. The MELD score uses prothrombin time (INR), creatinine, and bilirubin in the prediction of short-term mortality in decompensated cirrhotics while awaiting liver transplant. Measurement of endogenous CO-Hb may correlate to severity of liver disease. STUDY: Retrospective analysis was done of 113 adult patients who were evaluated for liver transplantation between September 1996 and July 2003 and had pulmonary function testing with CO-Hb as part of their evaluation. We excluded any patients with a history of smoking. Clinical parameters used for comparison included grade of esophageal varices (n=75), spleen size (n=51) measured on abdominal ultrasound or computed tomography scan, aminotransferases, and disease duration. Serum CO-Hb levels were measured from whole blood, sent refrigerated to ARUP laboratories (Salt Lake City, UT) and analyzed via spectrophotometry. Bivariate analysis was performed by means of the Pearson product moment correlation. RESULTS: The mean CO-Hb level was 2.1%, which is higher than the expected normal population controls. No correlation was found, however, with MELD score, Child Turcotte Pugh score, or other biochemical or clinical measurements of disease severity. CONCLUSIONS: Although CO and CO-Hb production may be increased in the cirrhotic patient, in this study no correlation was found to disease severity as measured by the MELD score. Further studies are needed to assess the role of CO in other complications of cirrhosis including infection and circulatory dysfunction.     

Assessment of adult patients with chronic liver failure for liver transplantation in 2015: who and when?

In 2015, there are a few absolute contraindications to liver transplantation. In adult patients, survival post‐liver transplant is excellent, with 1‐year survival rate >90% and 5‐year survival rates >80% and predicted median allograft survival beyond 20 years. Patients with a Child‐Turcotte Pugh score ≥9 or a model for end‐stage liver disease (MELD) score >15 should be referred for liver transplantation, with patients who have a MELD score >17 showing a 1‐year survival benefit with liver transplantation. A careful selection of hepatocellular cancer patients results in excellent outcomes, while consideration of extra‐hepatic disease (reversible vs irreversible) and social support structures are crucial to patient assessment. Alcoholic liver disease remains a challenge, and the potential to cure hepatitis C virus infection together with the emerging issue of non‐alcoholic fatty liver disease‐associated chronic liver failure will change the landscape of the who in the years ahead. The when will continue to be determined largely by the severity of liver disease based on the MELD score for the foreseeable future.     

Indicators and outcome of liver transplantation in acute liver decompensation after flares of hepatitis B

Summary. Non‐cirrhotic patients having acute liver decompensation in flares of hepatitis B can recover spontaneously or die without liver transplantation. Criteria for identifying patients in need of liver transplantation are lacking. Fifty‐one non‐cirrhotic patients having acute liver decompensation in flares of hepatitis B were retrospectively reviewed. The patients were divided into three groups: group A patients (n = 18) recovered from acute liver decompensation spontaneously; group B patients (n = 22) died of acute liver failure; and group C patients (n = 11) had liver transplantation. Model of end‐stage liver disease (MELD) scores were evaluated to identify the criteria for liver transplantation. The cut‐off point of MELD scores for liver transplantation was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Comparing group A and B patients, MELD score was an independent factor to predict prognosis. By analysing ROC curve, a MELD score > 30 was the most optimal cut‐off point to indicate liver transplantation; however, the false positive rate was 11.1%. By weekly measurement of MELD scores, subsequent increase in MELD scores could help to avoid false positives. Moreover, a MELD score > 34 yielded 0% false positive rate and indicated the necessity of definite liver transplantation. For group C patients, ten of 11 patients were saved by liver transplantation. In conclusion, for the patients having acute liver decompensation in flares of hepatitis B, liver transplantation is definitely indicated by MELD scores > 34. Liver transplantation is also indicated if the MELD score increases in the subsequent 1–2 weeks. Liver transplantation has a good outcome if performed on time.     

Evaluation of renal function in patients with cirrhosis: Where are we now?

In the clinical context of the patients with liver cirrhosis,accurate evaluation of the renal function is potentially crucial.Indeed,it can lead to early diagnosis of both acute kidney injury and chronic kidney disease and to reliable characterization of the renal status of the patient before performing a liver transplantation.Despite some limitations,the assay of serum creatinine(SCr)is universally used to estimate glomerular filtration rate(GFR)because of its wide availability,its simplicity and because it is inexpensive.Nevertheless,several reports show that the value of this assay to estimate GFR is strongly challenged in cirrhotic patients,especially in patients with liver failure and/or severely impaired renal function.This has led to seek new alternatives to estimate more reliably the GFR in these patients.Although the reference methods,based on the utilization of exogenous markers,allow measuring GFR and thereby constitute the"gold standard"to evaluate renal function,they are not feasible in routine clinical practice.Several studies have shown that a cystatin C(CysC)based formula perform better than the SCr-based estimates in cirrhotic patients and the estimation of GFR by these formulas could therefore lead to optimize the management of the patients.A new estimate based on CysC has been recently developed using a large number of patients and the first results regarding the evaluation of its performance are promising,making this new formula the best candidate for a reference estimate of the renal function in cirrhotic patients.     

A novel prognostic model based on serum levels of total bilirubin and creatinine early after liver transplantation.

BACKGROUND/AIM: We aim to evaluate the impact of early renal dysfunction (ERD), early allograft dysfunction (EAD) on post-transplant mortality, and further explore a simple and accurate model to predict prognosis. PATIENTS: A total of 161 adult patients who underwent liver transplantation for benign end-stage liver diseases were enrolled in the retrospective study. Another 38 patients were used for model validation. RESULTS: Poor patient survival was associated with ERD or EAD. A post-transplant model for predicting mortality (PMPM) based on serum levels of total bilirubin and creatinine at 24-h post-transplantation was then established according to multivariate logistic regression. At 3 months, 6 months and 1 year, the area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) of PMPM score at 24-h post-transplantation (0.876, 0.878 and 0.849, respectively) were significantly higher than those of pre-transplant model for end-stage liver diseases (MELD) score (0.673, 0.674 and 0.618, respectively) or the post-transplant MELD score at 24-h post-transplantation (0.787, 0.787 and 0.781, respectively) (P<0.05). Patients with PMPM score -1.4 (high-risk group, n=47) (P<0.001). The patients in the high-risk group showed a relatively good outcome if their PMPM scores decreased to 相似文献