结直肠息肉发生风险预测模型的构建和验证

背景：结直肠息肉为常见下消化道疾病,研究其危险因素对于临床防治具有重要意义。目的：构建结直肠息肉发生风险预测模型并进行验证。方法：根据纳入和排除标准,254例于2019年1月—2021年6月在上海华东医院特需内科病房住院体检者纳入研究,根据结肠镜检查结果归入结直肠息肉组和非结直肠息肉组。收集结直肠息肉相关危险因素,包括性别、年龄、吸烟史、饮酒史、高血压、糖尿病、高脂血症、高尿酸血症、胆囊息肉/结石、脂肪肝等信息,经LASSO回归筛选后纳入多因素Logistic回归分析构建预测模型并绘制列线图。以ROC曲线、C指数、校准曲线、决策曲线评价模型并进行内部验证。结果：254例研究对象中结直肠息肉组116例,非结直肠息肉组138例。经统计分析构建风险预测模型,发现性别（OR=2.11, 95%CI:1.06～4.27）、年龄（OR=2.76, 95%CI:1.17～6.73）、高血压（OR=3.23, 95%CI:1.52～7.12）、糖尿病（OR=4.37, 95%CI:1.52～14.64）、高脂血症（OR=3.20, 95%CI:1.74～5.95）和脂肪肝（OR=2.21, 95%CI...     

幽门螺杆菌感染合并结直肠腺瘤性息肉风险诺莫图预测模型的构建与验证

目的 预测H.pylori感染患者合并结直肠腺瘤性息肉的风险概率,并构建预测模型和进一步验证模型的预测效能。方法 回顾性收集2021年2月至2022年3月于新疆维吾尔自治区人民医院消化内科诊断H.pylori感染并完善结肠镜检查的患者共587例作为建模组,另收集2022年4月至2022年10月诊断H.pylori感染并完善结肠镜检查的患者共233例作为验证组。通过Logistic回归分析建立诺莫图预测H.pylori感染合并结直肠腺瘤风险的模型,采用ROC曲线评估预测模型的区分度,校准曲线评估数据拟合度,决策曲线分析图评估使用该模型的获益情况。结果 年龄、非酒精性脂肪性肝病、CagA、VacA、萎缩性胃炎和吸烟史是H.pylori感染合并结直肠腺瘤风险预测模型的预测因子,在建模组中AUC为0.866(95%CI:0.835～0.897),验证组AUC为0.831(95%CI:0.771～0.891),Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验显示平均绝对误差小,拟合度良好。决策风险曲线提示概率阈值广,有实用价值。结论 由年龄、非酒精性脂肪性肝病、CagA、VacA、萎缩性胃炎和吸烟史建...     

结直肠息肉发生的危险因素分析及临床预测模型构建

回顾性分析2020年6月至2022年12月于山西医科大学第二医院行结肠镜检查的1 010例住院患者的临床资料。应用多因素logistic回归分析结直肠息肉的独立危险因素, 并绘制列线图预测结直肠息肉的发生风险。结果显示, 年龄[OR=1.027, 95%置信区间(95%CI)1.016～1.039]、男性(OR=1.447, 95%CI 1.034～2.204)、体重指数(OR=1.054, 95%CI 1.010～1.099)、糖尿病(OR=1.468, 95%CI 1.026～2.101)、非酒精性脂肪性肝病(OR=1.390, 95%CI 1.016～1.903)、吸烟史(OR=1.527, 95%CI 1.049～2.221)和尿酸(OR=1.002, 95%CI 1.000～1.003)均是结直肠息肉发生的独立危险因素(均P<0.05)。列线图模型的受试者操作特征曲线的曲线下面积为0.673, 最佳截断值的约登指数为0.266, 灵敏度为54.4%, 特异度为72.2%。本研究结果表明基于上述危险因素构建的列线图模型对结直肠息肉发生风险的预测和高危人群的临床筛查具有一定...     

结直肠腺瘤性息肉发生风险预测模型的建立与验证

目的 通过分析结直肠腺瘤性息肉发生的危险因素,构建列线图模型来个体化预测结直肠腺瘤性息肉发生风险,并对模型进行验证。方法 回顾性收集2020年1月至2022年9月于新乡医学院第三附属医院行结肠镜检查患者的临床资料,按7∶3比例随机将研究对象分为训练集和验证集。采用单因素及多因素Logistic回归分析筛选出结直肠腺瘤性息肉发生的危险因素,并使用R软件构建结直肠腺瘤性息肉发生风险的列线图模型。运用验证集对模型进行内部验证。分别通过ROC曲线、Calibration校准曲线、决策曲线分析来评价模型的区分度、校准度及临床实用性。结果 共有513例患者纳入分析,其中训练集347例(男225例,女122例),验证集166例(男115例,女51例),年龄分别为(58.13±10.39)岁和(56.70±11.10)岁。回归分析显示,年龄、BMI、吸烟、脂肪肝、低密度脂蛋白(low density lipoprotein, LDL)与结直肠腺瘤性息肉发生有关。该模型的训练集和验证集的AUC分别为0.772(95%CI:0.722～0.822)和0.745(95%CI:0.667～0.823),Cal...     

老年人结直肠息肉的外周血相关研究与病理预测模型的建立

目的回顾性研究老年结直肠息肉病人外周血指标、结直肠息肉的大小与息肉病理诊断的关系,探索结直肠息肉不同类型间的外周血指标差异,构建预测模型,为结肠腺瘤型息肉的早期诊断提供理论依据。方法收集病人的外周血指标、息肉大小与病理结果,按照息肉的病理类型分组,对各因素进行单因素分析,再对有统计学差异的危险因素进行回归分析,构建预测模型。结果在≥60岁的老年人群中,腺瘤型息肉组与其他类型息肉组在血钾、单核细胞计数、淋巴单核比、血小板、神经元特异性烯醇化酶(NSE)、息肉面积、息肉最大径等方面存在显著性差异。用上述相关因素构建腺瘤型息肉的二元Logistic回归模型,最优模型的内部验证的ROC曲线下面积为0.824,预测价值高。结论老年病人患腺瘤型结直肠息肉的独立危险因素包括:血钾、单核细胞、淋巴单核比、血小板、NSE、息肉面积及最大径,而由血钾、单核细胞、血小板、息肉最大径构成的预测模型可用于评估息肉病理类型。     

结直肠息肉的临床特征研究

目的 探讨不同类型结直肠息肉分布的临床特征.方法 收集444例结直肠息肉患者的临床资料,分析结直肠息肉与不同性别、年龄、检出部位、病理及直径大小之间的相关性.结果 结直肠息肉患者中男性构成比明显高于女性(男∶女=2.02∶1).检出部位在左半结肠患者比例明显高于右半结肠(64.6％比25.7％).不同病理类型中,腺瘤性...     

2型糖尿病患者结直肠息肉发病及癌变机制的研究进展

结直肠癌发病率呈上升趋势。结直肠癌癌前病变的结直肠息肉受到了广泛关注。糖尿病是肠息肉的危险因素,其增加了包括结直肠癌在内的各种肿瘤患病风险,影响人们身体健康。该文对2型糖尿病患者结直肠息肉发病及癌变机制的研究进展作一综述。     

代谢综合征与中老年人结直肠腺瘤型息肉的关系

目的:研究代谢综合征(metabolic syndrome,MS)与中老年人结直肠腺瘤型息肉(colorectal adenoma polyps,CAP)的关系.方法:回顾性分析2007-1/2010-10在中国人民解放军南京军区南京总院干部消化内科住院期间做电子结肠镜检查的45岁以上患者114例的病例资料,根据是否患...     

结直肠息肉癌变的内镜下表现、治疗及癌变因素分析

目的探讨结直肠息肉癌变的内镜下表现,分析癌变相关因素和治疗策略。方法回顾性分析经电子结肠镜检查或治疗的77例结直肠癌变息肉患者的临床、内镜及病理资料,探讨影响结直肠息肉癌变的相关因素及其内镜下治疗策略。结果77例癌变结直肠息肉中,9例伴发结肠癌。60例有临床症状,症状发生率为77．9％（60／77）。息肉癌变主要分布在乙状结肠,多发生于年龄超过60岁的老年患者,绒毛状腺瘤癌变率最高。行电子结肠镜电切法切除44例,其中完全切除38例。结论年龄〉60岁患者和乙状结肠息肉癌变发生率明显增高,选择性对属于原位癌或早期浸润癌的癌变息肉行电子结肠镜下切除是安全有效的。     

结直肠侧向发育型肿瘤并发结直肠息肉的预测因子及发生恶变的危险因素

目的探究结直肠侧向发育型肿瘤(colorectal laterally spreading tumors, CLST)并发结直肠息肉的独立预测因子及CLST合并结直肠息肉发生恶变的独立危险因素。方法回顾性收集2016年1月—2021年12月在大连医科大学附属第二医院行内镜检查发现CLST, 并接受内镜下治疗的260例患者的临床资料。根据是否与结直肠息肉共存将CLST患者分为共存组(n=135)与非共存组(n=125), 比较两组的临床病理特征差异, 采用二元Logistic回归分析共存现象的预测因子。根据共存组CLST的浸润深度, 将共存组分为共存恶性组(n=38)与共存非恶性组(n=97), 采用二元Logistic回归分析CLST合并结直肠息肉发生恶性变的危险因素。结果男性(P=0.002, OR=2.355, 95%CI:1.354～4.099)、绒毛管状腺瘤(P=0.022, OR=3.873, 95%CI:1.214～12.355)、既往有息肉病史(P=0.001, OR=2.738, 95%CI:1.527～4.909)是CLST合并结直肠息肉的独立危险因素。该预测模型受试...     

Diverticulosis and diverticulitis form no risk for polyps and colorectal neoplasia in 4,241 colonoscopies

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: There are conflicting data concerning the association between diverticular disease and colorectal carcinoma (CRC). This study was performed to determine the prevalence and association of diverticulosis, diverticulitis, polyps, and CRC. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In a cross-sectional, retrospective study, we analyzed the colonoscopy reports of complete colonoscopies and patho-histological results of all patients referred for colonoscopy in a period of 3 months in 18 hospitals in The Netherlands. Diverticulosis was defined as three or more diverticula present and diverticulitis as diverticulosis with inflammation. Polyps were also coded according to localization and size. Advanced neoplastic lesions were defined as polyps >/=10 mm in diameter and/or villous architecture and/or adenomas with high grade dysplasia and/or invasive cancer. Actual and previous described CRC were registered. RESULTS: A total of 4,241 patients were included in the study [1,996 (47%) male], mean age of 59 and range 18-95. Diverticula, diverticulitis, and polyps were seen in 1,052 (25%), 75 (2%), and 1,282 (30%) patients, respectively. No association was found between patients with polyps and those with and without diverticulosis (p = 0.478). Invasive adenocarcinoma and adenomas >/=10 mm were most frequently observed. CRC was present in 372 (9%) patients. Negative relation between diverticulosis and CRC and invasive adenocarcinoma was observed. No association was found between polyps and CRC and patients with diverticulitis and CRC. In conclusion, there is no relation between patients with diverticulosis and higher incidence of polyps or CRC when using age-stratified analysis. No increased risk for polyps or CRC was found in patients with diverticulitis.     

Endoscopic management of large colorectal polyps

Objectives  The optimal treatment for large colorectal polyps (LCPs) is still a controversial issue. The aim of this study was to evaluate the safety and effectiveness of endoscopic polypectomy (EP) of colorectal polyps ≥2 cm in size. Patients and methods  One hundred fifty-one EP LCPs were performed over a period of 7 years. Diathermal snare was used for pedunculated and pseudopedunculated polyps and endoscopic mucosal resection (EMR) or biopsy forceps polypectomy for sessile and flat polyps. The resected polyps were recovered and collected for histology. At scheduled follow-up visits 1, 3, 6, and 12 months after polypectomy, complications and recurrences were recorded in all patients. Results  Fifteen polyps were located in the rectum, 84 in the sigmoid colon, 11 in the descending colon, four in the splenic flexure, 11 in the transverse colon, 11 in the hepatic flexure, seven in the ascending colon and eight in the cecum. Fifty-six polyps were sessile, 54 pedunculated, 25 pseudopedunculated, and 16 flat. At histology, most of polyps (131) were adenomas (nine with adenocarcinoma in situ). Five were invasive polypoid carcinomas and required colonic resection. Immediate bleeding occurred in ten patients (7.6%) and it was stopped by endoscopic hemoclips (7), epinephrine injection (1), or surgery (2). There were three perforations (2.3%; all polypoid carcinomas), managed endoscopically (1) or surgically (2). Delayed bleeding occurred in two patients (1.5%) and was treated by endoscopic diathermy and hemoclips (1) or surgery (1). During follow-up, six (4.6%) incompletely excised polyps and three (2.3%) relapses in the site of previous EP were detected and endoscopically removed. Conclusion  EP is relatively safe and effective for benign-appearing LCPs.     

Conventional colonoscopy and magnified chromoendoscopy for the endoscopic histological prediction of diminutive colorectal polyps： A single operator study

AIM: To accurately differentiate the adenomatous from the non-adenomatous polyps by colonoscopy. METHODS: All lesions detected by colonoscopy were first diagnosed using the conventional view followed by chromoendoscopy with magnification. The diagnosis at each step was recorded consecutively. All polyps were completely removed endoscopically for histological evaluation. The accuracy rate of each type of endoscopic diagnosis was evaluated, using histological findings as gold standard. RESULTS: A total of 240 lesions were identified, of which 158 (65.8%) were non-neoplastic and 82 (34.2%) were adenomatous. The overall diagnostic accuracy of conventional view, and chromoendoscopy with magnification was 76.3% (183/240) and 95.4% (229/240), respectively (P< 0.001) CONCLUSION: The combination of colonoscopy and magnified chromoendoscopy is the most reliable non-biopsy method for distinguishing the non-neoplastic from the neoplastic lesions.     

钙剂预防结直肠癌和结直肠息肉的荟萃分析

目的研究饮食中钙对成人结直肠癌发病率和结直肠息肉复发率的影响及其不良反应。方法应用国际Cochrane协作网的系统评价方法对全世界关于钙剂与安慰剂或空白对照比较的随机对照试验进行系统评价,选用固定效应模型。结果3组共37 628例患者的随机对照研究(Jadad评分≥5分)经荟萃分析显示．钙剂有预防结直肠息肉复发的作用(Peto OR:0．74,CI:0．58～0．95,P=0．02),但无证据支持长期使用钙剂可减少结直肠癌发生的危险性(Peto OR:1.07,CI:0．86～1．33,P> 0．05)。未发现补钙组和安慰剂组间有不良反应(Peto OR:1．05,CI:0．91～1．22)及失访率(Peto OR: 1．11,CI:0．88～1．40)的差异。结论结直肠息肉患者长期使用钙剂可预防结直肠息肉复发,但尚无减少结直肠癌发生的证据。     

非甾体抗炎药预防结直肠息肉的系统评价

目的　评价非甾体抗炎药 (NSAIDs )是否能降低结直肠息肉发生的危险性 ,以及长期使用这些药物的安全性。方法　应用国际Cochrane协作网的系统评价方法对全世界关于NSAIDs与安慰剂或空白对照比较的随机临床对照试验进行系统评价。结果　共有 8篇随机临床对照试验被纳入评价。分析结果显示阿司匹林可以预防结直肠腺瘤的发生 (P =0 0 0 3 ) ,但没有证据支持长期使用苏林酸和塞来昔布可以减少结直肠腺瘤发生的危险性 (P >0 0 5) ,也无证据证明结直肠腺瘤预防与NSAIDs的剂量有关。无论使用阿司匹林还是安慰剂 ,结直肠癌发生的机会相似 (P =0 8)。未发现NSAIDs和安慰剂组间不良反应有差异。结论　在结直肠腺瘤或结直肠癌术后的患者 ,长期使用阿司匹林可减少腺瘤的发生 ;目前尚无常规剂量阿司匹林可减少结直肠癌发生的证据 ,也无长期使用苏林酸和塞来昔布可减少结直肠腺瘤发生危险性的证据     

Application of quantitative estimates of fecal hemoglobin concentration for risk prediction of colorectal neoplasia

AIM:To determine the role of the fecal immunochemical test(FIT),used to evaluate fecal hemoglobin concentration,in the prediction of histological grade and risk of colorectal tumors.METHODS:We enrolled 17881 individuals who attended the two-step colorectal cancer screening program in a single hospital between January 2010 and October 2011.Colonoscopy was recommended to the participants with an FIT of≥12 ngHb/mL buffer.We classified colorectal lesions as cancer(C),advanced adenoma(AA),adenoma(A),and others(O)by their colonoscopic and histological findings.Multiple linear regression analysis adjusted for age and gender was used to determine the association between the FIT results and colorectal tumor grade.The risk of adenomatous neoplasia was estimated by calculating the positive predictive values for different FIT concentrations.RESULTS:The positive rate of the FIT was 10.9%(1948/17881).The attendance rate for colonoscopy was 63.1%(1229/1948).The number of false positive results was 23.Of these 1229 cases,the numbers of O,A,AA,and C were 759,221,201,and 48,respectively.Regression analysis revealed a positive association between histological grade and FIT concentration(β=0.088,P<0.01).A significant log-linear relationship was found between the concentration and positive predictive value of the FIT for predicting colorectal tumors(R2>0.95,P<0.001).CONCLUSION:Higher FIT concentrations are associated with more advanced histological grades.Risk prediction for colorectal neoplasia based on individual FIT concentrations is significant and may help to improve the performance of screening programs.     

大肠息肉的发生与青岛地区生活方式及饮食习惯的相关性

目的:分析青岛地区大肠息肉发生的临床病理特点及其与生活方式和饮食习惯的相关性.方法:收集2009-08/2010-04青岛地区三甲医院大肠息肉患者共1 331例,采用统一设计问卷,调查一般情况、生活方式、饮食习惯等,对1164例获取完整资料者进行多项指标统计学分析.结果:大肠息肉总检出率26.67%,男多于女,年龄集中...