Including hospice in Medicare capitation payments: would it save money?

Hospice services received by Medicare risk-based health maintenance organization (HMO) enrollees are paid on a non-capitated basis, creating financial incentives for HMOs to encourage their terminally ill patients to elect hospice. Using Medicare administrative records for 1998, we found that hospice enrollment in the last month of life was significantly higher among HMO enrollees than among beneficiaries in fee-for-service (FFS). However, low mortality rates among HMO enrollees produced similar population-based rates of hospice use in the HMO and FFS sectors. Simulations showed that including hospice care under capitation payments in July 1998 would have produced very small savings for Medicare.     

Medicare beneficiaries rate their medical care: new data from the MCBS (Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey)

The Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (MCBS) contains a wealth of information about the people whose care is financed by the program. This article examines their satisfaction with medical care received and explores the relationship of these attitudes with the characteristics of subgroups of the enrolled population. Satisfaction with medical care among Medicare beneficiaries is found to be generally high (80-90 percent). Disabled Medicare beneficiaries are less satisfied than the aged, and health maintenance organization (HMO) enrollees less satisfied than fee-for-service (FFS) patients. Others with lower-than-average satisfaction are people with poorer health status, those covered by Medicaid, and those without supplementary insurance.     

Enrollee health status under Medicare risk contracts: an analysis of mortality rates.

Previous studies comparing the health status of Medicare beneficiaries enrolled under HMO risk contracts to that of Medicare beneficiaries in fee-for-service (FFS) have generally focused on demonstration projects conducted before 1985. This study examines mortality rates in 1987 for approximately 1 million aged Medicare beneficiaries enrolled in 108 HMOs. We estimated adjusted mortality ratios (AMR) for each HMO and across all HMOs, by dividing the actual number of deaths among HMO enrollees by the "expected" number of deaths. The expected number of deaths was based on death rates among local FFS populations, adjusting for age, sex, Medicaid buy-in status, and institutional status. The AMR for all HMO enrollees pooled together was 0.80. For persons newly enrolled in 1987, the AMR was 0.69; in general, AMRs were higher for beneficiaries who had been enrolled for longer periods of time. Among individual HMOs, none exhibited an AMR substantially above 1.00. Regression analysis indicated lower AMRs for staff model HMOs than for either IPA or group models. Low mortality among Medicare HMO enrollees is consistent with favorable selection or with improvements in the health status of enrollees due to better access or quality of care in HMOs. In either case, health status differences between HMO enrollees and FFS beneficiaries have implications for the appropriateness of Medicare's Adjusted Average Per Capita Cost (AAPCC) payment formula for HMOs.     

Health care use and expenditures of Medicare HMO disenrollees

We examine the impact of the first wave of Medicare health maintenance organization HMO withdrawals. With data from CMS and United Health Group, we estimate use and expenditure changes between 1998 and 1999 for HMO enrollees who were involuntarily dropped from their plan and returned to fee-for-service (FFS) Medicare using a difference-in-difference model. Compared to those who voluntarily left an HMO, involuntarily disenrolled beneficiaries had higher out-of-pocket expenditures, an 80 percent decrease in physician visits, 38 percent higher emergency room (ER) use and a higher probability of dying. The results suggest beneficiaries face significant costs and reduced health outcomes from unstable Medicare managed care markets.     

Beneficiary selection, use, and charges in two Medicare capitation demonstrations.

Findings with regard to health status, service use, and charges are presented for Medicare beneficiaries who received care under Medicare risk contracts with two health maintenance organizations from 1980 through 1982 and for fee-for-service comparison groups. Health status of plan enrollees and fee-for-service beneficiaries were compared using mortality data, preenrollment claims, and self-reported health measures. Patterns of use and expenditures during preenrollment and postenrollment periods were examined using Medicare records and data supplied by the plans.     

The effect of HMOs on the inpatient utilization of medicare beneficiaries

OBJECTIVE: To determine the effect of joining HMOs (health maintenance organizations) on the inpatient utilization of Medicare beneficiaries. DATA SOURCES: We linked enrollment data on Medicare beneficiaries to patient discharge data from the California Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development (OSHPD) for 1991-1995. DESIGN AND SAMPLE: A quasi-experimental design comparing inpatient utilization before and after switching from fee-for-service (FFS) to Medicare HMOs; with comparison groups of continuous FFS and HMO beneficiaries to adjust for aging and secular trends. The sample consisted of 124,111 Medicare beneficiaries who switched from FFS to HMOs in 1992 and 1993, and random samples of 108,966 continuous FFS beneficiaries and 18,276 continuous HMO enrollees yielding 1,227,105 person-year observations over five years. MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURE: Total inpatient days per thousand per year. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: When beneficiaries joined a group/staff HMO, their total days per year were 18 percent lower (95 percent confidence interval, 15-22 percent) than if the beneficiaries had remained in FFS. Total days per year were reduced less for beneficiaries joining an IPA (independent practice association) HMO (11 percent; 95 percent confidence interval, 4-19 percent). Medicare group/staff and IPA-model HMO enrollees had roughly 60 percent of the inpatient days per thousand beneficiaries in 1995 as did FFS beneficiaries (976 and 928 versus 1,679 days per thousand, respectively). In the group/staff model HMOs, our analysis suggests that managed care practices accounted for 214 days of this difference, and the remaining 489 days (70 percent) were due to favorable selection. In IPA HMOs, managed care practices appear to account for only 115 days, with 636 days (85 percent) due to selection. CONCLUSIONS: Through the mid-nineties, Medicare HMOs in California were able to reduce inpatient utilization beyond that attributable to the high level of favorable selection, but the reduction varied by type of HMO.     

Comparing mortality and time until death for medicare HMO and FFS beneficiaries

OBJECTIVE: To compare adjusted mortality rates of TEFRA-risk HMO enrollees and disenrollees with rates of beneficiaries enrolled in the Medicare fee-for-service sector (FFS), and to compare the time until death for decedents in these three groups. DATA SOURCE: Data are from the 124 counties with the largest TEFRA-risk HMO enrollment using 1993-1994 Medicare Denominator files for beneficiaries enrolled in the FFS and TEFRA-risk HMO sectors. STUDY DESIGN: A retrospective study that tracks the mortality rates and time until death of a random sample of 1,240,120 Medicare beneficiaries in the FFS sector and 1,526,502 enrollees in HMOs between April 1, 1993 and April 1, 1994. A total of 58,201 beneficiaries switched from an HMO to the FFS sector and were analyzed separately. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: HMO enrollees have lower relative odds of mortality than a comparable group of FFS beneficiaries. Conversely, HMO disenrollees have higher relative odds of mortality than comparable FFS beneficiaries. Among decedents in the three groups, HMO enrollees lived longer than FFS beneficiaries, who in turn lived longer than HMO disenrollees. CONCLUSIONS: Medicare TEFRA-risk HMO enrollees appear to be, on average, healthier than beneficiaries enrolled in the FFS sector, who appear to be in turn healthier than HMO disenrollees. These health status differences persist, even after controlling for beneficiary demographics and county-level variables that might confound the relationship between mortality and the insurance sector.     

The impact of payor/provider type on health care use and expenditures among the frail elderly.

OBJECTIVES: This study examined whether health care expenditures and usage by the frail elderly differ under three payor/provider types: Medicare fee for service, Medicare health maintenance organization (HMO), and dual Medicare-Medicaid enrollment. METHODS: In-home interviews were conducted among 450 frail elderly patients of a San Diego, Calif, health care system. Cost and use data were collected from providers. RESULTS: Analyses revealed no difference in total expenditures between fee-for-service and HMO enrollees, but Medicare-Medicaid beneficiaries' expenditures were 46.8% higher than those for HMO enrollees and 52.2% higher than those for the fee-for-service group. Fee-for-service participants were less than half as likely as HMO enrollees to have two or more hospital admissions, but hospital usage rates between those two payor/provider groups did not differ. Not were there payor/provider differences in access to home health care, but HMO home health care users received significantly fewer services than the others. CONCLUSIONS: The care provided to these HMO beneficiaries resulted in a combination of restricted home health use and higher multiple hospitalizations. This raises compelling questions for future research. For the dually enrolled, stronger cost containment may be required.     

Consumer advocacy in Medicare HMOs

Rising out-of-pocket health care costs and premiums for Medicare supplemental insurance are driving many beneficiaries out of traditional fee-for-service Medicare and into health maintenance organizations. These consumers give up unrestricted provider choice in exchange for controlled costs and some additional service. However, in the context of weak oversight by the federal Health Care Financing Administration, the push by health plans to increase profits has meant that vulnerable Medicare HMO enrollees may not receive the services and consumer protections required by law.     

Setting capitation payments in markets for health services.

Health maintenance organizations (HMO's) are paid a capitated amount for enrolled Medicare beneficiaries that is 95 percent of what these enrollees would be expected to cost in the fee-for-service sector. However, it appears that HMO enrollees are less costly than other Medicare beneficiaries. With a simulation model, we demonstrate that with a 95-percent pricing rule, any significant degree of biased selection leads to increased cost to the payer, even when HMO's are cost effective compared with the fee-for-service sector. Optimal pricing percentages from the point of view of cost minimization are considerably less than 95 percent.     

How the elderly fare in HMOs: outcomes from the Medicare competition demonstrations.

Because of concern about the effects of prepaid care on outcomes for elderly enrollees in health maintenance organizations (HMOs), a prospective study of access to care and functional outcomes was performed. HMOs with Medicare risk contracts in January 1985 (N = 17) were selected from ten communities and were matched for comparison with ten similar communities where no Medicare HMOs were in operation. Random samples of HMO enrollees (N = 2,098) and fee-for-service (FFS) nonenrollees (N = 1,059) were assessed at baseline and at follow-up one year later (HMO = 1,873, FFS = 916) to observe access to care and functional outcomes. At baseline, nonenrollees had more bed days and poorer functional status than HMO enrollees. While fewer HMO enrollees experienced declines in functional status between baseline and follow-up (e.g., patient's ability to function declined in one or more activities of daily living: HMOs at 5.3 percent versus FFS at 8.5 percent, p < .01), after controlling for other factors with logistic regression, enrollment status was not significantly associated with functional decline. Self-rated health, history of hospitalization, age of 80 or older and baseline functional status were predictive of decline in function. After controlling for baseline differences, HMO disenrollees also experienced similar functional declines at follow-up compared to continuously enrolled beneficiaries. These findings suggest that Medicare beneficiaries who belong to HMOs experience comparable rates of functional decline to those experienced by beneficiaries in the FFS sector with similar initial levels of function and health status. Together with results showing no significant difference in medical visits according to various symptoms, we conclude that access and quality of care delivered by HMOs is comparable to that provided in FFS settings.     

Effects of Managed Mental Health Care on Service Use in Urban and Rural Maine

This study takes advantage of a "natural experiment" resulting from the reassignment of all Maine state employees to a managed behavioral health plan in December 1992. By comparing mental health claims before and after that date, the effects of a behavioral health carve-out on mental health utilization by rural and urban beneficiaries were investigated. Following the implementation of the carve-out, the penetration rate, defined as the proportion of beneficiaries who sought help for an affective disorder, increased significantly in both rural and urban areas (P < 0.001). However, the rural penetration rate remained significantly lower than the urban rate (before implementation, 25.8 vs. 52.2 users per 1,000 enrollees, P < 0.001; after implementation, 57.8 vs. 85.8 users per 1,000 enrollees, P < 0.001). Similarly, rural utilization rates, defined as the average number of outpatient mental health visits per user, were significantly lower than urban rates both before and after implementation of the carve-out (before, 9.2 us. 12.9 visits per user, P < 0.001; after, 9.8 vs. 13.3 visits per user, P < 0.001). Before-after differences were not significant. In addition, the proportion of mental health care provided in the primary care setting increased after implementation of the carve-out (from 9.5 percent of all visits before to 12.6 percent of all visits after, P < 0.001). The increase in penetration rates can be attributed, in part, to a member education initiative undertaken during the transition from fee-for-service to managed care. This type of carve-out arrangement does not threaten to reduce access to mental health services, provided the managed behavioral health organization (MBHO) managing the carve-out is willing to accept primary care practitioners as part of its provider network.     

The State of Diabetes Care Provided to Medicare Beneficiaries Living in Rural America

CONTEXT: Diabetes poses a growing health burden in the United States, but much of the research to date has been at the state and local level. PURPOSE: To present a national profile of diabetes care provided to Medicare beneficiaries living in urban, semirural, and rural communities. METHODS: Medicare beneficiaries with diabetes aged 18-75 were identified from Part A and Part B claims data from 1999 to 2001. A composite of 3 diabetes care indicators was assessed (annual hemoglobin A1c test, biennial lipid profile, and biennial eye examination). FINDINGS: Over 77% had a hemoglobin A1c test, 74% a lipid profile, and 69% an eye examination. Patterns of care were considerably different across the urban-rural continuum at the state, Census division, and regional levels. States in the northern and eastern portions of the country had higher indicator rates for rural than for urban residents. States in the South had much lower rates for rural residents than their urban counterparts. Despite these within-state differences, across-state comparisons found that several states tended to have low indicator rates in every level of the urban-rural continuum. A common feature of these states was the relatively high concentration of nonwhite beneficiaries. For example, southern states had much higher concentrations of nonwhite beneficiaries relative to other areas in the country and demonstrated low rates in every level of the urban-rural continuum. CONCLUSIONS: Urban-rural quality of care differences may be a function not just of geography but also of the presence of a large nonwhite population.     

Trends in the health status of medicare risk contract enrollees

Previous research has found Medicare risk contract enrollees to be healthier than beneficiaries in fee-for-service (FFS). Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (MCBS) data were used to examine trends in health and functional status measures among risk contract and FFS enrollees from 1991 to 2004. Risk contract enrollees reported better health and functioning, but the differences tended to narrow over time. Most of the differences in trends were observed for functional status measures and institutionalization; differences in trends for perceived health status and prevalence rates of chronic conditions tended to be small or non-existent. The narrowing of functional and health status differences between the risk contract and FFS populations may have implications for payment policy, as well as implications for the role of private health plans in Medicare.     

Primary Care Service Areas: A New Tool for the Evaluation of Primary Care Services

Objective. To develop and characterize utilization-based service areas for the United States which reflect the travel of Medicare beneficiaries to primary care clinicians.
Data Source/Study Setting. The 1996–1997 Part B and 1996 Outpatient File primary care claims for fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 and older. The 1995 Medicaid claims from six states (1995) and commercial claims from Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan (1996).
Study Design. A patient origin study was conducted to assign 1999 U.S. zip codes to Primary Care Service Areas on the basis of the plurality of beneficiaries' preference for primary care clinicians. Adjustments were made to establish geographic contiguity and minimum population and service localization. Generality of areas to younger populations was tested with Medicaid and commercial claims.
Data Collection/Extraction Methods. Part B primary care claims were selected on the basis of provider specialty, place of service, and CPT code. Selection of Outpatient File claims used provider number, type of facility/service, and revenue center codes.
Principal Findings. The study delineated 6,102 Primary Care Service Areas with a median population of 17,276 (range 1,005–1,253,240). Overall, 63 percent of the Medicare beneficiaries sought the plurality of their primary care from within area clinicians. Service localization compared to Medicaid (six states) and commercial primary care utilization (Michigan) was comparable but not identical.
Conclusions. Primary Care Service Areas are a new tool for the measurement of primary care resources, utilization, and associated outcomes. Policymakers at all jurisdictional levels as well as researchers will have a standardized system of geographical units through which to assess access to, supply, use, organization, and financing of primary care services.     

Patient selection in the ESRD managed care demonstration

The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Service's (CMS') end stage renal disease (ESRD) managed care demonstration offered an opportunity to assess patient selection among a chronically ill and inherently costly population. Patient selection refers to the phenomenon whereby those Medicare beneficiaries who choose to enroll or stay in health maintenance organizations (HMOs) are, on average, younger, healthier, and less costly to treat than beneficiaries who remain in the traditional Medicare fee-for-service (FFS) sector. The results presented in this article show that enrollees into the demonstration were generally younger and healthier than a representative group of comparison patients from the same geographic areas.     

Trends in inpatient treatment intensity among Medicare beneficiaries at the end of life

OBJECTIVE: Although an increasing fraction of Medicare beneficiaries die outside the hospital, the proportion of total Medicare expenditures attributable to care in the last year of life has not dropped. We sought to determine whether disproportionate increases in hospital treatment intensity over time among decedents are responsible for the persistent growth in end-of-life expenditures. DATA SOURCE: The 1985-1999 Medicare Medical Provider Analysis and Review (MedPAR) and Denominator files. STUDY DESIGN: We sampled inpatient claims for 20 percent of all elderly fee-for-service Medicare decedents and 5 percent of all survivors between 1985 and 1999 and calculated age-, race-, and gender-adjusted per-capita inpatient expenditures and rates of intensive care unit (ICU) and intensive procedure use. We used the decedent-to-survivor expenditure ratio to determine whether growth rates among decedents outpaced growth relative to survivors, using the growth rate among survivors to control for secular trends in treatment intensity. Data Collection. The data were collected by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Real inpatient expenditures for the Medicare fee-for-service population increased by 60 percent, from $58 billion in 1985 to $90 billion in 1999, one-quarter of which were accrued by decedents. Between 1985 and 1999 the proportion of beneficiaries with one or more intensive care unit (ICU) admission increased from 30.5 percent to 35.0 percent among decedents and from 5.0 percent to 7.1 percent among survivors; those undergoing one or more intensive procedure increased from 20.9 percent to 31.0 percent among decedents and from 5.8 percent to 8.5 percent among survivors. The majority of intensive procedures in the United States were performed in the more numerous survivors, although in 1999 50 percent of feeding tube placements, 60 percent of intubations/tracheostomies, and 75 percent of cardiopulmonary resuscitations were in decedents. The proportion of beneficiaries dying in a hospital decreased from 44.4 percent to 39.3 percent, but the likelihood of being admitted to an ICU or undergoing an intensive procedure during the terminal hospitalization increased from 38.0 percent to 39.8 percent and from 17.8 percent to 30.3 percent, respectively. One in five Medicare beneficiaries who died in the hospital in 1999 received mechanical ventilation during their terminal admission. CONCLUSIONS: Inpatient treatment intensity for all fee-for-service beneficiaries increased between 1985 and 1999 regardless of survivorship status. Absolute changes in per-capita hospital expenditures, ICU admissions, and intensive inpatient procedure use were much higher among decedents. Relative changes were similar except for ICU admissions, which grew faster among survivors. The secular decline in in-hospital deaths has not resulted in decreased per capita utilization of expensive inpatient services in the last year of life. This could imply that net hospital expenditures for the dying might have been even higher over this time period if the shift toward hospice had not occurred.